Definitions

See also: attribution of recent climate change In this article, "climate change" means a change in climate that persists over a sustained period of time.[6][7] The World Meteorological Organization defines this time period as 30 years.[6] Examples of climate change include increases in global surface temperature (global warming), changes in rainfall patterns, and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events. Changes in climate may be due to natural causes, e.g., changes in the sun's output, or due to human activities, e.g., changing the composition of the atmosphere.[8] Any humaninduced changes in climate will occur against the "background" of natural climatic variations.[8] Also, the term "anthropogenic forcing" refers to the influence exerted on a habitat or chemical environment by humans, as opposed to a natural process.[9]

impacts has, for instance, been used in the IPCC's Assessment Reports on climate change.[11] The instrumental temperature record shows global warming of around 0.6 Cover the entire 20th century.[12]

SRES emissions scenarios

The future level of global warming is uncertain, but a wide range of estimates (projections) have been made.[13] The IPCC's "SRES" scenarios have been frequently used to make projections of future climate change.[14]:22-24 The SRES scenarios are "baseline" (or "reference") scenarios, which means that they do not take into account any current or future measures to limit GHG emissions (e.g., the UNFCCC's Kyoto Protocol and the Cancun agreements).[15] Emissions projections of the SRES scenarios are broadly comparable in range to the baseline emissions scenarios that have been developed by the scientific community.[13][16] In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, changes in future global mean temperature was projected using the six SRES "marker" emissions scenarios.[17] Emissions projections for the six SRES "marker" scenarios are representative of the full set of forty SRES scenarios.[18] For the lowest emissions SRES marker scenario ("B1" - see the SRES article for details on this scenario), the best estimate for global mean temperature is an increase of 1.8 C (3.2 F)[17] by the end of the 21st century. This projection is relative to global temperatures at the end of the 20th century.[19] The "likely" range (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgment) [20] for the SRES B1 marker scenario is 1.12.9 C (25.2 F change).[17] For the highest emissions SRES marker scenario (A1FI), the best estimate for global mean temperature increase is 4.0 C (7.2 F), with a "likely" range of 2.46.4 C (4.311.5 F change).[17] The range in temperature projections partly reflects (1) the choice of emissions scenario, and (2) the "climate sensitivity".[14]:22-24 For (1), different scenarios make different assumptions of future social and economic development (e.g., economic growth, population level, energy policies), which in turn affects projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.[14]:22-24 the projected magnitude of

Temperature changes

Global mean surface temperature difference from the average for 18802009. The graph above shows the average of a set of temperature simulations for the 20th century (black line), followed by projected temperatures for the 21st century based on three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (colored lines).[10] This article breaks down some of the impacts of climate change according to different levels of future global warming. This way of describing

warming by 2100 is closely related to the level of cumulative emissions over the 21st century (i.e. total emissions between 2000-2100).[21] The higher the cumulative emissions over this time period, the greater the level of warming is projected to occur.[21] (2) Reflects uncertainty in the response of the climate system to past and future GHG emissions, which is measured by the climate sensitivity).[14]:2224 higher estimates of climate sensitivity lead to greater projected warming, while lower estimates of climate sensitivity lead to less projected warming.[22] Over the next several millennia, projections suggest that global warming could be irreversible.[23] Even if emissions were drastically reduced, global temperatures would remain close to their highest level for at least 1,000 years (see the later section on irreversibility).[24][25]

Scientists have used various "proxy" data to assess past changes in Earth's climate (pale climate).[27] Sources of proxy data include historical records (such as farmers' logs), tree rings, corals, fossil pollen, ice cores, and ocean and lake sediments.[27] Analysis of these data suggest that recent warming is unusual in the past 400 years, possibly longer.[28] By the end of the 21st century, temperatures may increase to a level not experienced since the midPliocene, around 3 million years ago.[29] At that time, models suggest that mean global temperatures were about 23 C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures.[29] Even a 2 C rise above the preindustrial level would be outside the range of temperatures experienced by human civilization.[30][26]

Physical impacts
Main article: Physical impacts of climate change

Projected warming in context

Global surface temperature for the past 5.3 million years as inferred from cores of ocean sediments taken all around the global ocean. The Two millennia of mean surface last 800,000 temperatures according to different years are reconstructions from climate proxies, expanded in each smoothed on a decadal scale, with the lower the instrumental temperature record half of the overlaid in black. figure (image credit: NASA).[26]

Seven of these indicators would be expected to increase in a warming world and observations show that they are, in fact, increasing. Three would be expected to decrease and they are, in fact, decreasing.[31]

Human activities have contributed to a number of the observed changes in climate.[35] This contribution has principally been through the burning of fossil fuels, which has led to an increase in the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere.[36] Another human influence on the climate are sulfur dioxide emissions, which are a precursor to the formation of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere.[37] Human-induced warming could lead to large-scale, irreversible, and/or abrupt changes in physical systems.[38][39] An example of this is the melting of ice sheets, which contributes to sea level rise.[40] The probability of warming having unforeseen consequences increases with the rate, magnitude, and duration of climate change.[41]

Radiative forcing
The effect of human activities on the climate system can be measured by radiative forcing.[42] A positive radiative forcing will tend to warm the climate, while a negative forcing will tend to cool the climate.[43] Anthopogenic forcing (i.e. the radiative forcing due to human activities) was estimated to have been positive (i.e. an overall warming effect) in the year 2005.[43] This is relative to the estimated forcings at the start of the industrial era, taken as the year 1750. Anthropogenic forcing of the climate has likely contributed to a number of observed changes, including sea level rise, changes in climate extremes (such as warm and cold days), declines in Arctic sea ice extent, and to glacier retreat.[35]

This set of graphs show changes in climate indicators over several decades. Each of the different colored lines in each panel represents an independently analyzed set of data. The data come from many different technologies including weather stations, satellites, weather balloons, ships and buoys.[32] A broad range of evidence shows that the climate system has warmed.[33] Evidence of global warming is shown in the graphs opposite. Some of the graphs show a positive trend, e.g., increasing temperature over land and the ocean, and sea level rise. Other graphs show a negative trend, e.g., decreased snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, and declining Arctic sea ice extent. Evidence of warming is also apparent in living (biological) systems.[34]

Effects on weather
Observations show that there have been changes in weather.[44] As climate changes, the probabilities of certain types of weather events are affected.

Projected change in annual average precipitation by the end of the 21st century, based on a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) (Credit: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory).[45][46] Changes have been observed in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation.[14]:18 Widespread increases in heavy precipitation have

occurred, even in places where total rain amounts have decreased. With medium confidence (see footnote 1), IPCC (2012)[47] concluded that human influences had contributed to an increase in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Projections of future changes in precipitation show overall increases in the global average, but with substantial shifts in where and how precipitation falls.[14]:24 Projections suggest a reduction in rainfall in the subtropics, and an increase in precipitation in subpolar latitudes and some equatorial regions.[46] In other words, regions which are dry at present will in general become even drier, while regions that are currently wet will in general become even wetter.[46] This projection does not apply to every locale, and in some cases can be modified by local conditions.[46] Extreme weather See also: Extreme weather and Tropical cyclone#Global warming Since the 1950s, it is very likely that the number of cold days and nights have decreased globally.[48] There have been other changes in climate extremes, e.g., floods and tropical cyclones, but these changes are more difficult to identify.[48] As previously stated, human influences appear to have contributed to some of the observed changes.[49] Future climate change will very likely be associated with more very hot days and fewer very cold days.[50] The frequency, length and intensity of heat waves will very likely increase over most land areas.[50] It's likely that the average maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones will increase, though there may also be fewer cyclones.[50] A number of regions may experience more intense droughts, including southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, Northwest Brazil, and southern Africa.[50] Increases in heavy rainfall might contribute to increases in local flooding in some catchments or regions. In coastal regions, sea level rise will very likely contribute to extremes in sea level.

The impacts of extreme events on the environment and human society will vary. Some impacts will be beneficial -- e.g., fewer cold extremes will probably lead to fewer cold deaths.[51] Overall, however, impacts will probably be mostly negative.[52][53]

Cryosphere
See also: Retreat of glaciers since 1850

A map of the change in thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red, thickening in blue.

A map that shows ice concentration on 16 September 2012, along with the extent of the previous record low (yellow line) and the midSeptember median extent (black line) setting a new record low that was 18 percent smaller than the previous record and nearly 50 percent smaller than the long-term (1979-2000) average. The cryosphere is made up of areas of the Earth which are covered by snow or ice.[54] Observed changes in the cryosphere include declines in Arctic sea ice extent,[55] the widespread retreat of alpine glaciers,[56] and reduced snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.[57] Solomon et al. (2007)[58] assessed the potential impacts of climate change on summertime Arctic sea ice extent. Assuming high growth in greenhouse gas emissions (SRES A2), some models projected that Arctic sea ice in the summer could largely

disappear by the end of the 21st century.[58] More recent projections suggest that the Arctic summers could be ice-free (defined as ice extent less than 1 million square km) as early as 2025-2030.[59] During the 21st century, glaciers[60] and snow cover are projected to continue their widespread retreat.[61] In the western mountains of North America, increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation are projected to lead to reduced snowpack.[62] Snowpack is the seasonal accumulation of slow-melting snow.[63] The melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could contribute to sea level rise, especially over long time-scales (see the section on Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets).[40] Changes in the cryosphere are projected to have social impacts.[64] For example, in some regions, glacier retreat could increase the risk of reductions in seasonal water availability.[65] Barnett et al. (2005)[66] estimated that more than one-sixth of the world's population rely on glaciers and snowpack for their water supply.

stratification. Other possible effects include largescale changes in ocean circulation. Acidification Main article: Ocean acidification

Oceans
The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO 2 have led to ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO 2. The ocean have also acted as a sink in absorbing extra heat from the atmosphere.[67]:4 The increase in ocean heat content is much larger than any other store of energy in the Earths heat balance over the two periods 1961 to 2003 and 1993 to 2003, and accounts for more than 90% of the possible increase in heat content of the Earth system during these periods.[68] Global warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased temperature

This map shows changes in the amount of aragonite dissolved in ocean surface waters between the 1880s and the most recent decade (2003-2012).[69] Historical modeling suggests that since the 1880s, increased CO2 has led to lower aragonite saturation levels (less availability of minerals) in the oceans around the world.[69] The largest decreases in aragonite saturation have occurred in tropical waters.[69] However, decreases in cold areas may be of greater concern because colder waters typically have lower aragonite levels to begin with.[69] About one-third of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the oceans.[70] As carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water, carbonic acid is formed, which has the effect of acidifying the ocean, measured as a change in pH. The uptake of human carbon emissions since the year 1750 has led to an average decrease in pH of 0.1 units.[71] Projections using the SRES emissions scenarios suggest a further reduction in average global surface ocean pH of between 0.14 and 0.35 units over the 21st century. The effects of ocean acidification on the marine biosphere have yet to be documented.[71] Laboratory experiments suggest beneficial effects for a few species, with potentially highly detrimental effects for a substantial number of species.[70] With medium confidence, Fischlin et al. (2007)[72] projected that future ocean acidification and climate change would impair a wide range of planktonic and shallow benthic marine organisms that use

aragonite to make their shells or skeletons, such as corals and marine snails (pteropods), with significant impacts particularly in the Southern Ocean. Oxygen depletion The amount of oxygen dissolved in the oceans may decline, with adverse consequences for ocean life.[73][74] Sea level rise Main article: Current sea level rise

There are two main factors that have contributed to observed sea level rise.[76] The first is thermal expansion: as ocean water warms, it expands.[78] The second is from the contribution of land-based ice due to increased melting. The major store of water on land is found in glaciers and ice sheets. Anthropogenic forcing very likely (greater than 90% probability, based on expert judgement)[20] contributed to sea level rise during the latter half of the 20th century.[35] There is a widespread consensus that substantial long-term sea level rise will continue for centuries to come.[79] In their Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC[80] projected sea level rise to the end of the 21st century using the SRES emissions scenarios. Across the six SRES marker scenarios, sea level was projected to rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 in), relative to sea level at the end of the 20th century.[81] Thermal expansion is the largest component in these projections, contributing 7075% of the central estimate for all scenarios.[82] Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the possible contributions of ice sheets (see the section on Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets). An assessment of the scientific literature on climate change was published in 2010 by the US National Research Council (NRC, 2010).[83] NRC (2010)[83] described the projections in AR4 (i.e. those cited in the above paragraph) as "conservative", and summarized the results of more recent studies. Cited studies suggested a great deal of uncertainty in projections.[83] A range of projections suggested possible sea level rise by the end of the 21st century of between 0.56 and 2 m, relative to sea levels at the end of the 20th century.[83] Ocean temperature rise

Trends in global average absolute sea level, 18702008.[75] There is strong evidence that global sea level rose gradually over the 20th century.[76] With high confidence, Bindoff et al. (2007)[77] concluded that between the mid-19th and mid-20th centuries, the rate of sea level rise increased. Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Synthesis Report (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007)[12] reported that between the years 1961 and 2003, global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year (mm/yr), with a range of 1.32.3 mm/yr. Between 1993 and 2003, the rate increased above the previous period to 3.1 mm/yr (range of 2.43.8 mm/yr). Authors of IPCC AR4 SYR (2007)[12] were uncertain whether the increase in rate from 1993 to 2003 was due to natural variations in sea level over the time period, or whether it reflected an increase in the underlying long-term trend.

Global ocean heat content from 1955-2012 From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10 C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. There is variability both year-to-year and over longer time scales, with global ocean heat content observations showing high rates of warming for 19912003, but some cooling from 2003 to 2007.[84] The temperature of the Antarctic Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 C (0.31 F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's oceans as a whole.[85] As well as having effects on ecosystems (e.g. by melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on its underside), warming reduces the ocean's ability to absorb CO [citation needed] 2. It is likely (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement)[20] that anthropogenic forcing contributed to the general warming observed in the upper several hundred metres of the ocean during the latter half of the 20th century.[35]

Effects of global warming

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agreed to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."[5]

Jump to: navigation, search This article is about (primarily) effects during the 21st century. For longer-term effects, see Long-term effects of global warming.

Summary of climate change impacts. The effects of global warming are the ecological and social changes caused by the rise in global temperatures. There is a scientific consensus that climate change is occurring, and that human activities are the primary driver.[1] Evidence of climate change includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.[2] According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations.[3] Projections of future climate change suggest further global warming, sea level rise, and an increase in the frequency and severity of some extreme weather events.[4] Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have

Scientific opinion on climate change

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Jump to: navigation, search This article is about scientific opinion on the current climate change, or global warming. For public perception and controversy, see Public opinion on climate change and Global warming controversy. For Individual dissenting scientists, see List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming.

peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys. National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed current scientific opinion on climate change. These assessments are generally consistent with the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), summarized below:

Global mean land-ocean temperature change from 18802012, relative to the 19511980 mean. The black line is the annual mean and the red line is the 5-year running mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Source: NASA GISS The scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and it is more than 90% certain that humans are causing most of it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels. In addition, it is likely that some potential further greenhouse gas warming has been offset by increased aerosols.[1][2][3][4] This scientific consensus is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as evidenced by increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, the widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[5] Most of the global warming since the mid20th century is very likely due to human activities.[6] "Benefits and costs of climate change for [human] society will vary widely by location and scale.[7] Some of the effects in temperate and polar regions will be positive and others elsewhere will be negative.[7] Overall, net effects are more likely to be strongly negative with larger or more rapid warming."[7] "[...] the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time"[8] "The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g. land-use change, pollution, fragmentation of natural systems, overexploitation of resources)"[9]

No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of these main points; the last was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists,[10] which in 2007[11] updated its 1999 statement rejecting the likelihood of human influence on recent climate with its current non-committal position.[12] Some other organizations, primarily those focusing on geology, also hold non-committal positions