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5.7 Terrestrial ecosystems and It is likely that these losses of biodiversity will be
biodiversity exacerbated by climate change. Projections suggest
that between one fifth and one third of European
5.7.1 Introduction species could be at increased risk of extinction if
global mean temperatures rise more than 2 to 3 °C
Climate (change) is an important driving force above pre‑industrial levels (Lovejoy and Hannah,
in the distribution and functioning of natural 2005; IPCC, 2007). A combination of climate
systems (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003). Europe's change and the drivers of change outlined above
biodiversity (its species, habitats and ecosystems) will reduce the adaptive capacity (and resilience)
has been modified repeatedly during past glacial of many species, possibly resulting in different
and inter‑glacial periods, with some species ecosystems and landscapes across Europe. Local
recolonising the continent from ancient refugia. and regional extinctions are likely (McKinney and
Today, ecosystems have an essential role in Lockwood, 1999). Species at greatest threat include
providing services to humankind such as nutrient specialists, those at the top of the food chain, those
cycling, pest control, pollination, quality of life, and with latitudinal and altitudinal restrictions, and
hydrological, atmospheric and climatic regulation those with poor dispersal abilities.
(Díaz et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007). Impoverishment
of Europe's biodiversity may affect the delivery The European Commission, through its target
of ecosystem services with potentially serious to 'halt the loss of biodiversity by 2010 — and
consequences (Lovejoy and Hannah, 2005). beyond', is addressing observed and projected
Maintaining and enhancing healthy ecosystems are declines in biodiversity and their consequences for
an important element in climate change mitigation human well-being. As part of this process, reducing
and adaptation actions. the impacts of other drivers of change will enhance
the ability of species to adapt to climate change
About 60 % of the world's known ecosystems (IPCC, 2007). But new areas for conservation are
are currently used unsustainably (Reid et al., also needed, together with measures to improve
2005). In Europe, the richness and abundance of connectivity, thus facilitating species movement in
biodiversity is undergoing significant decline. This fragmented landscapes. As such, the robustness of
is in large part due to changes in land use and the European ecological network of Natura 2000
management, which are resulting in degradation sites should be strengthened, including through
of (semi‑)natural habitats, declines in traditional more widespread implementation of Article 10
agricultural and forest management on which of the Habitats Directive (which relates to the
many habitats depend, and now large-scale land network's coherence).
abandonment. Urbanisation, industrialisation,
modification of rivers and watercourses, This section outlines the impacts of climate
fragmentation of habitats by infrastructure change on biodiversity by showing both observed
and growing pressure from public access to and projected changes in the distribution and
the countryside for tourism and recreation are phenology (changes in the timing of seasonal
also causing widespread biodiversity losses events) of plants and animals, and the implications
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). for communities.
Key messages
• Climate change, in particular milder winters, shifted several hundred kilometres to the north,
is responsible for the observed northward and forests are likely to have contracted in the
uphill distribution shifts of many European plant south and expanded in the north, and 60 % of
species. Mountain ecosystems in many parts of mountain plant species may face extinction.
Europe are changing as pioneer species expand
uphill and cold‑adapted species are driven out • The rate of change will exceed the ability of
of their ranges. many species to adapt, especially as landscape
fragmentation may restrict movement.
• By the late 21st century, distributions of
European plant species are projected to have
Figure 5.31 Increase in species richness on threat of extinction of species at the edge of their
Swiss Alpine mountain summits geographical and altitudinal ranges — particularly
in 20th century poorly‑dispersing endemics. The ecological
Number of species implications of these changes and the effects on
60 the services that these ecosystems provide are not
always clear. Together with the emergence of invasive
50
non‑native species, these factors will have challenging
40 consequences for long‑term biodiversity conservation
(Gitay et al., 2002) and the ability of Europe to meet its
30 target to halt biodiversity loss, not least in relation to
20
the favourable status of Natura 2000 sites.
ng rs 14 )
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be particularly affected.
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Past trends
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with the extraordinarily warm conditions of the and broadleaved species replacing native coniferous
1990s (Walther et al., 2005) (Figure 5.31). Evidence species in western and central Europe (IPCC, 2007).
also emerged of declines in cold‑adapted species
as warming conditions and pioneer species drove Modelling of late 21st century distributions of
these from their characteristic niches. Similar 1 350 European plant species under a range of
observations are expected from current European scenarios led to the conclusion that more than half
monitoring programs (e.g. GLORIA) for which will be at the edge of their geographic and altitudinal
results will be available by the end of 2008. In the ranges and could become threatened by 2080, with
Swedish Scandes, the tree line of the Scots pine (Pinus high risks of extinction (Thuiller et al., 2005). The
sylvestris) rose by 150–200 metres as warmer winters greatest changes are projected for endemic plant
significantly lowered mortality and increased rates species in Mediterranean, Euro‑Siberian and many
of establishment. Observations from other continents mountain regions. Mountain communities may face
show that uphill tree line migration is a global up to a 60 % loss of plant species under high emission
phenomenon that could become a major threat to scenarios, reversing the 20th century trend outlined
biodiversity in high mountains (Kullman, 2006; 2007; above (Thuiller et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007).
Pauli et al., 2007).
Bakkenes et al. (2006) obtained similar results from
Projections modelling stable areas of plant species distribution for
this century under different climate change scenarios
Projections indicate that, by the late 21st century, (Map 5.30). This study suggests that 10–50 % of plant
the potential range of many European plant species species in European countries are likely to disappear
may shift several hundred kilometres in a northerly by 2100 from their current location in the absence of
direction. This is several times faster than past rates climate change mitigation. Again, species in southeast
as estimated from the Quaternary record or from and southwest Europe are likely to be worst affected.
historic data (Huntley, 2007). The distribution of tree This number will be higher if migration is restricted
species is also likely change significantly, with forests due to continuing fragmentation or if there is
expanding in the north and contracting in the south, competition with invasive species.
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60°
Note: Results for stable area per grid cell, using the EuroMove model with HadCM2 A2 climate scenario.
Key messages
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
– 0.20
– 0.40
– 0.60
– 0.80
– 1.00
30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Mean date (day of year)
b0 Farmers activities b1 Leaf unfolding wild plants b2 Ripeness agriculture
b1 Flowering b1 Shooting b2 Fruit ripening wild plants
b1 Leaf unfolding agriculture b1 Ear formation agriculture b3 Leaf colouring
Note: In a study of 254 national records across nine countries, most phenological changes correlated significantly with mean
monthly temperatures of the previous two months. The earlier a spring event occurred, the stronger the effect of
temperature.
Countries included: Austria, Belarus/northern Russia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Switzerland,
Ukraine/southern Russia. Phenophase groups included: (b0) Farmers activities, (b1) Spring and summer with different
leafing, shooting and flowering phases, (b2) Autumn fruit ripening and (b3) Leaf colouring of deciduous trees in fall.
Leafing date
Projections
May 20
Key messages
• Europe's birds, insects, mammals and other • Distribution changes are projected to continue.
groups are moving northwards and uphill, largely Suitable climatic conditions for Europe's
in response to observed climate change. But breeding birds are projected to shift nearly
rates of distribution change are not necessarily 550 km northeast by the end of the century,
keeping pace with changing climate. with the average range size shrinking by 20 %.
Projections for 120 native European mammals
• A combination of the rate of climate change, suggest that up to 9 % (assuming no migration)
habitat fragmentation and other obstacles will risk extinction during the 21st century.
impede the movement of many animal species,
possibly leading to a progressive decline in
European biodiversity.
Figure 5.34 Latitudinal shifts in northern range margins in the United Kingdom for selected
groups of animal species over the past 40 years
100
50
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– 50
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– 100
Note: Results for 16 taxonomic groups of animal species are given for three levels of data sub‑sampling (recorded, green;
well‑recorded, orange; heavily recorded, blue). Only species occupying more than twenty 10 km grid squares were included
in the analysis.
Projections
migratory moths and butterflies (see Section 5.7.5).
Health risks associated with vector‑borne diseases Projections suggest that the northward and uphill
are linked to invasions of species such as ticks and movement of many animal species will continue
mosquitoes (see Section 5.10). this century. Widespread species may be less
vulnerable, while threatened endemics — already
Past trends
Figure 5.35 Impact of climate change on
populations of European birds,
The northward and uphill movement of a wide
1980–2005
variety of animal species has been observed over
recent decades across Europe. These observations Weighted population index
are partly attributable to observed changes in 110
climatic conditions, whilst others are triggered more
by land‑use and other environmental changes.
100
under pressure — will be at greatest risk, although increase towards the northeast and in mountainous
there will be spatial variation (Levinsky et al., 2007; areas such as the Alps and Pyrenees, assuming
Lemoine et al., 2007). An important constraint will be that movement through fragmented landscapes is
the ability of species to move. This ability represents possible.
a significant research challenge, especially in the
context of the effectiveness of ecological networks Under a 3 °C climate warming scenario (above
under a fast‑changing climate. pre‑industrial levels), the ranges of European
breeding birds are projected to shift by the end of
The limited dispersal ability of many reptile and the 21st century by about 550 km to the northeast,
amphibians, coupled with the fragmentation with average range size being 20 % smaller. Arctic,
of ecological networks, is very likely to reduce sub‑Arctic, and some Iberian species are projected to
the ranges of many species (Hickling et al., 2006; suffer the greatest range losses (Huntley et al., 2008).
Araújo et al., 2006), particularly those in the Iberian
Peninsula and parts of Italy (Map 5.31). In polar regions, projected reductions in sea ice
will drastically reduce habitat for polar bears, seals
A study of 120 native terrestrial mammals projected and other ice‑dependent species (IPCC, 2007). In
that species richness is likely to reduce dramatically addition to climate change, these top predators will
this century in the Mediterranean region, but also be affected by declining fish stocks.
Map 5.31 Projected impact of climate change on the potential distribution of reptiles and
amphibians in 2050
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60°
60° 60°
60° 60°
50° 50°
50° 50°
40° 40°
40° 40°
0 500 0°
1000 1500 km
10° 20° 30° 0 500 1000 1500 km
0° 10° 20° 30°
0 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 20 40 60 80 100
Note: Projected data based on the Generalised Linear Model map using the HadCM3 A2 scenario for the 2050s are compared with
the current situation.
Key messages
• Climatic warming has caused advancement in • These trends are projected to continue as
the life cycles of many animal groups, including climate warming increases in the decades
frogs spawning, birds nesting and the arrival to come. Populations may explode if the
of migrant birds and butterflies. Seasonal young are not exposed to normal predation
advancement is particularly strong and rapid in pressures. Conversely, populations may crash
the Arctic. if the emergence of vulnerable young is not
in synchrony with their main food source or if
• Breeding seasons are lengthening, allowing extra shorter hibernation times lead to declines in body
generations of temperature‑sensitive insects condition.
such as butterflies, dragonflies and pest species
to be produced during the year.
Map 5.32 Changes in egg‑laying dates (1980–2004) of the pied flycatcher (Ficedula
hypoleuca)
•
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° •60°
• Changes in egg-laying
• • dates of pied flycatcher
• (Ficedula hypoleuca),
•
• • 1980–2004
•
• • •60°
•
•
• • – 7–
•
– 4
60°
• •
• •
Laying date trend (days/25 years)
• – 5–
•
• • • • • – 1–
•
• • •
• 50° – 0
• • •
• •
•
• • • 1 –
50° •
• • • • –– 1
• •
• • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • 3 – –– 2
•
• • • • •
• • •
• • • •
• •
• • • •
5 –
• • •
• •
• •
•
• • 40° Source of laying date
•
time series
40° • • •
•
• •
• • • Weather stations
•
• •
•
•
Note: Dots: weather stations used to calculate changes in local egg‑laying dates (derived from temperature data);
triangles: location of pied flycatcher laying date time series.
Key messages
• The stability of ecosystems and, therefore, • The changing range of host species has major
the services that they provide, will become implications for range expansions of species
increasingly affected by climate change due and places additional pressures on those of
to species‑specific responses and, thus, the conservation importance.
disruption of established biotic interactions.
Map 5.33 Current potential niche space of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and
its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta)
Niche space of
60° Polygonum
bistorta
Niche space of
Boloria titania
Overlap of Polygonum
bistorta and Boloria
titania
50°
50°
40°
40°
0 500 0°
1000 1500 km
10° 20° 30°
Map 5.34 Relationship between projected distribution space of the butterfly Titania fritillary
(Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta) for 2080
60° 60°
60° 60°
50° 50°
50° 50°
40° 40°
40° 40°
0 500 0°
1000 1500 km
10° 20° 30°
0 500 0°
1000 1500 km
10° 20° 30°
60° 60°
60° 60°
50° 50°
50° 50°
40° 40°
40° 40°
0 500 0°
1000 1500 km
10° 20° 30°
0 500 0°
1000 1500 km
10° 20° 30°
Relationship between projected distribution space of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and
its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta) for moderate (a, b) and high (c, d) climate change
scenarios for 2080 under the assumption of unlimited (a, c) and no (b, d) dispersal of its host plant
Niche space of Niche space of Overlap of Polygonum bistorta and Boloria titania,
Polygonum bistorta Boloria titania which is the butterfly’s potential future niche space
Note: Global change scenarios based on storylines developed within the EU‑funded project ALARM (Settele et al., 2005,
Spangenberg 2007, www.alarmproject.net).
This so‑called trophic mismatch has been webs. During 2004 and 2005, major population
demonstrated for various animal groups, including crashes have been observed. In Shetland, over
birds (Both et al., 2006), and in some cases is causing 1 000 guillemot nests and 24 000 nests of the Arctic
crashes or explosions in populations. Additionally, tern were almost entirely deserted, and on the
extreme events such as floods, drought and fire can nearby island of Foula, the world's largest colony
disrupt ecosystems, preventing growth of key plant of great skuas saw only a few living chicks. The
species and limiting nesting, breeding and feeding cause was a drastic reduction in the populations
opportunities for animals. of sandeel, their principal food source. The
disappearance of the sandeel was due, in turn, to
Past trends the northward movement of cold‑water plankton
on which these fish feed (see Section 5.4). The
Many butterfly species are moving northward (see plankton's range had shifted because the waters
Section 5.7.4), but often with overall declines in between Britain and Scandinavia had become
abundance and range size (Warren et al., 2001). Biotic too warm for it to survive there. Since 1984, some
interactions are important factors in explaining the seabird species around Scotland have decreased by
distributions of butterflies, because they are often 60–70 % (CEH, 2005).
host‑specific. For example, many parts of Europe are
climatically suitable for the butterfly Titania fritillary Projections
(Boloria titania) (Map 5.33) and the species may even
be able to migrate quickly in response to climate The response to climate change of the butterfly
change. However, an important constraint to range Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant
expansion is the presence of its host plant American American bistort (Polygonum bistorta) is likely to
bistort (Polygonum bistorta) (Schweiger et al., in lead to a reduction in range overlap and, thus, an
press). Likewise, the current distribution of the uncertain future for this specialist butterfly. Played
clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) is explained out on a larger scale, these trophic mismatches
not only by climate suitability, but also by the benefit generalists at the expense of specialists,
presence of its Corydalis host plant (Araújo and putting additional pressures on the capacity of
Luoto, 2007). ecosystems to provide certain services and on
species of conservation importance (McKinney and
Climate change has also had a disruptive effect Lockwood, 1999; Reid et al., 2005; Biesmeijer et al.,
on Scottish seabird communities and their food 2006).
Climate is an important factor in soil development The EU's Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection
and a major driver of the processes of soil formation. (EC, 2006) has stated that several soil functions are
At the same time, changes in the bio-physical under serious pressure in many parts of Europe. The
nature of soil, due to rising temperatures, changing understanding of soil as an important contributor
precipitation intensity and frequency and more to water systems, the global carbon cycle and other
severe droughts, are likely to release substantial systems is still evolving and needs to be developed
amounts of greenhouse gases. However quantitative further; so far soil has been perceived mainly in the
information, from observations and modelling of the context of arable land and fertility for crop production.
impacts of climate change on soil and the various The perception of soil as an environmental medium
related feedbacks, is very limited. To date, assessments providing substantial goods and services for all land
have relied mainly on local case studies that have and aquatic ecosystems has developed over recent
analysed how soil reacts under changing climate in decades but still with a focus on economic aspects and
combination with evolving agricultural and forest valuing different types of land use.
practices. Indicators with full European coverage, to
help policymakers identify appropriate adaptation Significant projected changes in precipitation patterns
measures, are absent, as can be seen from the limited will affect soil formation and functions. Soil as
number of indicators in this chapter. There is an part of the soil-water-plant system contributes and
urgent need to address this unsatisfactory situation influences changes in groundwater recharge, water
through the establishment of appropriate monitoring quality through buffering capacity, plant growth and
schemes. evapotranspiration through water available to roots,
and run-off through retention capacity. This is vital
Soil has many biological, chemical and physical for land and water management. Better and more
characteristics with a marked spatial and quantitative understanding of this system is needed
temporal variability. Changing climate will affect to improve forecasts and possible response actions.
these characteristics and may also have serious Indicators with sufficient resolution in time and space
consequences for the well-being of people, who are are needed to link observations and new models
dependent on the broad range of environmental which include climate change.
goods and services regulated by soil. Soil is one of the
key life-support systems on the planet, responsible for Based on the current limited amount of observations
major ecological and other functions such as: and some modelling, the following issues are
highlighted in this chapter. Soil organic matter
• supply of water and nutrients for plant growth drives the majority of soil functions; any reduction
and food production (ecosystems, agriculture and can lead to a decrease in fertility and biodiversity
forestry); (see Box 5.10), a loss of soil structure, reduced water
retention capacity and increased risk of erosion and
• regulation of the water cycle; compaction. Changes in rainfall and wind patterns
will lead to an increase in erosion in vulnerable soils
• nutrient cycles, storage of carbon and regulation which often suffer from low organic matter content.
of greenhouses gases; Climate change will further increase the risk of
desertification, which is already affecting southern
• trapping of contaminants (buffering capacity); Europe and is expected to move gradually northward
(see Box 5.11). Desertification (4) is an advanced stage
• source of raw material (e.g. clay minerals); of land degradation where the soil has lost part of
its capability to support human communities and
• preservation of cultural heritage; ecosystems. By absorbing water, soil organic matter
can contribute to the mitigation of flooding following
• habitats for animal and plant species, maintaining extreme rainfall events, while storing water in the
their biological and genetic diversity; event of more frequent and severe droughts (see
(4) Desertification is defined by the United Nation Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) as 'land degradation in arid, semiarid
and sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities' (UNCCD, 1997).
Section 5.5). However evaluation of the impact of Soil can also act as a carbon sink, absorbing carbon
climate change remains difficult. Changes to features dioxide from the atmosphere and thus mitigating
such as texture and mineralogical composition will global warming. In areas with low temperatures
only occur over long 'geological' time spans, while and sufficient moisture, the decomposition of dead
properties such as pH, organic matter content or biomass (leaves, stems, roots of plants) is reduced,
microbial activity will show a more rapid response. In leading to accumulations of soil organic matter.
addition, the response of a particular soil type may be Increasing temperatures will accelerate decay
both positive and negative, depending on its function. rates, leading to increased carbon dioxide and
Rising temperatures and precipitation may support methane emissions from soil. Appropriate wetland
increased agricultural productivity (see Section 5.9) management and land-use practices should thus be
but may also increase the risk of erosion. enhanced to maintain or enhance soil carbon stocks.
Key
Key
messages
messages
• Soil organisms control numerous ecosystem species and their abundance. Ecosystem
processes, supplying the environment and functioning, including nutrient supply, carbon
society with a number of important economic and nitrogen cycles, is modified consequently.
and ecosystem goods and services. However, quantified knowledge of these
impacts is limited.
• Climate change alters the habitat of soil biota,
which affects the diversity and structure of
Soil biodiversity controls several processes such as ecosystems that are widespread throughout the
organic matter and nutrient cycling, degradation world can contribute to significant changes in carbon
of organic pollutants, nitrogen biotic fixation, cycle and hence carbon pools and fluxes through the
plant‑microbe symbiotic nutrient uptake, plant modification of ecosystem functioning (Ayres et al.,
growth promotion and plant protection, maintenance 2008; Barrett et al., 2008; Poage et al., 2008).
of soil physical structure and pollination. Perhaps the
most important potential impacts of climate change Our understanding of the soil species involved in
on soil relate to below-surface biodiversity, which decomposition and whether individual soil species
ranges from bacteria, fungi, microbes, microscopic have an effect on ecosystem processes is limited.
invertebrates to larger invertebrates such as ants, For example, the relationship between the number of
earthworms and termites. Because the majority of species of any soil group and an ecosystem process,
soil and sediment biodiversity is hidden beneath such as the rate of decomposition, has not been
the surface, this species richness remains mostly established in field studies. Thus when soils are
unknown, poorly mapped, and rarely considered degraded, knowledge of the effects on their biological
in models of climate change or adaptation plans diversity and ecosystem services is largely missing.
(Behan-Pelletier and Newton, 1999; Paustian et al.,
2000; Wolters et al., 2000). Yet, the biological Climate change can affect soil biodiversity directly,
diversity of soils is estimated to be greater than that by altering the soil temperature and moisture,
in above-ground systems (Wall and Virginia, 2000). and indirectly, altering vegetation communities
This vast biodiversity is critical to the well‑being of and productivity, and the rate of organic matter
all life, both below and above the surface: it provides decomposition. Not all soil biota, however, will be
ecosystem services such as filtering of air and water, affected by climate change to the same extent;
control of erosion, regulation of the global cycles according to Wall and collaborators (2001), termites
of nutrients, carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus and enchytraeids will be the most affected. Effects
(Brussard et al., 1997), waste recycling through of warming may be larger in ecosystems that are
decomposition, bio-control of plant and human pests, currently limited by temperature, such as the arctic
and soil fertility. tundra and semi-polar deserts (Swift et al., 1998;
Convey et al., 2002), and mountain areas. In
The SCOPE Committee on Soil and Sediment research carried out in the Swedish Lapland using the
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning recently environmental manipulation approach, it has been
synthesized knowledge on below-ground species demonstrated that a temperature rise results in an
diversity and ecosystem functioning in a series increase in bacteria, fungi and nematode density, but a
of international workshops (Behan-Pelletier and reduction of biodiversity (Ruess et al., 1999).
Newton, 1999; Brussaard et al., 1997, 2007;
Hooper et al., 2000; Wolters et al., 2000). Most of The interrelation between soil fauna and vegetation,
the stages involved in soil ecosystem processes are for example forests, is critical (Binkley and Cristian,
performed by groups of species from many phyla, 1998; Gonzalez and Seastedt, 2001; Hooper et al.,
resulting in high species redundancy (different 2000). The Global Litter Invertebrate Decomposition
species performing same ecosystem process). Some Experiment (http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/
critical processes are performed by a few 'keystone' glide/) shows that the soil litter and organisms found
taxa (e.g. mostly larger invertebrates such as under different tree species are highly specific. The
termites, earthworms, enchytraeids). loss of tree species due to climate change might cause
the loss of the associated soil biodiversity. These
Soils contain a large amount of carbon, and CO2 ecosystem transformations can affect the capacity of
release to the atmosphere depends to a large degree the soil to store carbon. Once soil biodiversity and the
on the activities of soil biota. Soil biota regulate species and services it provides are lost or damaged,
the decay process or decomposition, which directly remediation and restoration takes an extremely long
affects carbon level in soils. Climate-induced loss time and in some instances the loss of some species is
of key invertebrates in a variety of low-diversity irreversible.
Key messages
• Soil in the EU contains around 71 gigatonnes • Losses of soil organic carbon have already been
of organic carbon, nearly 10 % of the carbon observed in measurements in various European
accumulated in the atmosphere. An increase regions over the past 25 years.
in temperature and a reduction in moisture
tend to accelerate the decomposition of organic • The projected changes in the climate during
material, leading to a decline in soil organic the 21st century will change the contribution of
carbon stocks in Europe and an increase in CO2 soil to the CO2 cycle in most areas of the EU.
emissions to the atmosphere. This could wipe Adapted land-use and management practices
out all the savings that other sectors of the could be implemented to counterbalance the
economy are achieving to reduce anthropogenic climate-induced decline of carbon levels in soil.
greenhouse gas emissions.
Map 5.35 Changes in soil organic carbon content across England and Wales between
1978 and 2003
Change in soil organic carbon contents across England and Wales between 1978 and 2003
Left: carbon contents in the original samplings (1978–1983) Right: rates of change calculated from the change over the
different sampling intervals (1994–2003)
Original Corg (g/kg) Rate of change (g/kg/yr)
< 20 20–30 30–50 50–100 100–200 200–300 > 300 < –2.0 –2.0 to –1.5 –1.5 to –1.0 –1.0 to –0.5 –0.5 to 0.0 > 0.0
Map 5.36 Projected changes in soil organic carbon for cropland 1990–2080
60° 60°
50° 50°
40° 40°
t C/ha
> 20 15 10 5 2 0 –2 –5 – 10 – 15
Key messages
• An estimated 115 million hectares, 12 % of the pattern and intensity, will make soils more
total EU land area, are subject to water erosion. susceptible to erosion.
• The projected changes in the climate during the • The off-site effects of soil erosion will increase
21st century, with increased variations in rainfall with climate change and related changes in
rainfall pattern and intensity.
Map 5.37 Soil erosion risk assessment for Europe for the year 2000
Tonnes/ha/year
0.5–1
1–2
2–5
5–10
10–20
20–50
> 50
Note: Results obtained with application of two models (PESERA and RUSLE, JRC). Areas with yellow and red shades are highly
vulnerable to soil erosion by water.
Key messages
• Water retention capacity and soil moisture most of Europe, significant reductions in the
content will be affected by rising temperatures Mediterranean region, and increases in the
and by a decline in soil organic matter due to north-eastern part of Europe.
both climate change and land-management
changes. • Maintaining water retention capacity is
important to reducing the impacts of intense
• Projections (for 2070–2100) show a general rainfall and droughts, which are projected to
reduction in summer soil moisture over become more frequent and severe.
0 400 800 Km
0 420 840 Km
Note: Left: example of a forecast of topsoil moisture (15 July, 2008), right: subsoil available water capacity derived from
modelling data.
Sources: European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC), http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/library/esdac/index.html (left); and European Flood
Alert System (EFAS) http://efas.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ (right).
Map 5.39 Modelled summer soil moisture (1961–1990) and projected changes (2070–2080)
over Europe
% Change
in %
90
2
80
1
70
0
60
–1
50
–2
40
–3
30
–5
20
–7
10
Note: Simulated soil moisture by ECHAM5/T106L31 for the baseline period (1961–1990) (left) and relative changes in % under
the IPCC A2 scenario (2070–2100) (right).
Key
Key
messages
messages
(*) National reports are available through the UNCCD website at: http://www.unccd.int.
5.9 Agriculture and forestry dioxide. However, they are also very vulnerable to
changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme
5.9.1 Introduction weather events which can have destructive impacts
and reduce the carbon sequestration potential
The impacts of medium and long-term climate of the forest. Events such as forest fires have an
change on agriculture and forestry are often even more negative effect since destroying the
difficult to analyse separately from non-climate forest increases the amount of carbon dioxide in
influences related to the management of the the atmosphere. The majority of forests in central
resources (Hafner, 2003). However, there is Europe are growing faster than in the past, partly
growing evidence that processes such as changes because of regional warming. In contrast, the
in phenology, length of growing season and extended heat-wave of 2003 caused a significant
northwards shift of crops and forest species can reduction in biomass production of forests
be related to climate change (IPCC, 2007a). There (Gabron, 2005).
are also increasing impacts due to an increased
frequency of some extreme events which can be Although the economic impacts of climate change
attributed to climate change. on agriculture and forestry in Europe are very
difficult to determine because of the effects of
Potential positive impacts of climate change on policies and market influences and continuous
agriculture in general are related to longer growing technological development in farming and
seasons and new cropping opportunities in silviculture techniques, there is evidence of wider
northern Europe, and increased photosynthesis and vulnerability for both sectors (see also Chapter 6).
CO2 fertilisation throughout Europe. These possible Management actions can counteract but may also
benefits are counterbalanced by potentially exacerbate the effects of climate change and will
negative impacts that include increased water play an important role in measures for adaptation
demand and periods of water deficit, increased to climate change (AEA, 2007).
pesticide requirements and crop damage, and fewer
cropping opportunities in some regions in southern The indicators included in this section are related
Europe (Olesen and Bindi, 2004; Maracchi et al., to agricultural production, phenology, forestry
2005; Chmielewski et al., 2004; Menzel et al., 2003). growth and distribution, and the observed and
In general, changes in atmospheric CO2 levels and projected impacts of forest fires.
increases in temperature are changing the quality
and composition of crops and grasslands and Good data availability and quality are essential
also the range of native/alien pests and diseases. for monitoring trends and threats relating to
These may affect livestock and ultimately humans European forests and agricultural products.
as well as crops. In addition, the increase in The International Co-operative Programme on
ozone concentrations related to climate change Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects
(Meleux et al., 2007) is projected to have significant on Forests (ICP‑Forest), originally set up to monitor
negative impacts on agriculture, mainly in northern the effects of air pollution, now includes surveys
mid‑latitudes (Reilly et al., 2007). that could also be used to monitor the effects of
climate change (e.g. phenology). Another clear step
The link of forestry with climate change is twofold. forward in the collection of relevant information
Forests play a fundamental role in mitigating is being achieved by the establishment of the
climate change because they act as sinks for carbon European Data Centres on Soil and Forestry.
Key messages
• There is evidence that the length of the growing These observed facts are particularly important
season of several agricultural crops in Europe for the northern latitudes.
has changed.
• Locally at southern latitudes, the trend is
• A longer growing season increases crop towards a shortening of the growing season,
yields and insect populations and favours with consequent higher risk of frost damage
the introduction of new species in areas that from delayed spring frosts.
were not previously suitable for these species.
Rate of change of
growing season length
defined as total number
of frost-free days
per year
Days/year
> + 0.8
+ 0.4 to + 0.8
– 0.4 to + 0.4
– 0.8 to – 0.4
< – 0.8
Statistical significance
0.05
Note: The rate of change (number of days per year) of the duration of the growing season (defined as total number of frost-free
days per year) as actually recorded during the period 1975–2007.
Past trends
350
350
300
250
300
200
250 150
100
200 50
19 4
19 6
19 8
19 0
82
19 4
86
19 8
90
19 2
19 4
19 6
20 8
20 0
20 2
20 4
20 6
08
19 4
19 6
19 8
19 0
82
19 4
86
19 8
19 0
92
19 4
19 6
98
20 0
20 2
20 4
20 6
08
7
7
7
8
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
7
7
7
8
8
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
Number of days Denmark Number of days Highlands and islands (the United Kingdom)
300 400
350
250
300
200 250
200
150 150
100
100
50
50 0
19 4
19 6
78
19 0
19 2
19 4
19 6
19 8
19 0
19 2
19 4
19 6
98
20 0
20 2
20 4
20 6
08
19 4
76
19 8
19 0
82
19 4
19 6
19 8
90
19 2
19 4
19 6
98
20 0
20 2
20 4
20 6
08
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
7
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
19
19
20
19
19
19
19
20
a decrease in the length of frost-free period occurred, length of the growing season will be influenced
in particular in southern Europe, the plants are more mainly by the increase in temperatures in autumn
at risk from frost damage due to a delay in the last and spring (Ainsworth and Long, 2005; Norby et al.,
winter-spring frost. 2003; Kimball et al., 2002; Jablonski et al., 2002).
Key messages
• There is evidence that the flowering and maturity • Adaptations of farm practices will be crucial to
of several species in Europe now occurs two or reduce or avoid negative impacts of crop-cycle
three weeks earlier than in the past. shortening.
Map 5.41 Modelled change of flowering date for winter wheat 1975–2007
Days/year
< – 0.5
– 0.5 to – 0.3
– 0.3 to 0
+ 0.2 to + 0.4
Note: The day of the year of flowering has been simulated by using a crop growth model (CGMS — Crop Growth Monitoring
System).
varieties or adapting the crop calendar, and can be Sowing or planting dates of several agricultural
expected to do so increasingly in the future. crops have been advanced, by 5 days for potatoes
in Finland, 10 days for maize and sugar beet in
Germany and 20 days for maize in France (IPCC,
Past trends 2007).
Wine production areas, and particularly those for Figure 5.37 Potential alcohol level
premium wines, are limited to regions climatically at harvest for Riesling in
conducive to growing grapes with balanced
Alsace (France) 1972–2003
composition and degree to which they reflect their
origin ('varietal typicity'). Three conditions are
Potential alcohol level of the wine (% v/v)
required: (i) adequate heat accumulation; (ii) low 12
risk of severe frost damage; and (iii) the absence of
extreme heat. Moreover, vines are resistant to limited
water availability in summer and it is essential to 11
have no rainfall during harvest time, in order to
increase sugar concentration and reduce disease
development. 10
• seasonal shift: a move forward in time of all the Note: Reprinted with permission from Duchêne and
Schneider, Grapevine and climatic changes:
phenological phases with an increase of frost
a glance at the situation in Alsace. Agron.
risk and a shortening of the ripening period. As a Sustain. Dev. 25 (2005) 93–99. Copyright: 2005
possible effect, the harvest time may occur during INRA, EDP Sciences. Permission has been kindly
periods of high temperatures, with negative effect given by Dr. Eric Lichtfouse, Editor-in-Chief of
on wine quality; Agronomy for Sustainable Development.
http://www.agronomy-journal.org.
• expansion of wine production areas, to north and
more elevated regions; Source: Duchêne and Schneider, 2005.
Key messages
• Climate and its variability are largely • As a consequence of climatic change, such
responsible for variations in crop suitability and events are projected to increase in frequency
productivity in Europe. and magnitude, and crop yields to become
more variable. Changes in farming practices
• Since the beginning of the 21st century, the and land management can act as risk-mitigating
variability of crop yields has increased as measures.
a consequence of extreme climatic events,
e.g. the summer heat of 2003 and the spring
drought of 2007.
Possible benefits
CO2
Carbon dioxide Longer
fertilisation growing
season Increased
precipitation
Possible drawbacks
More
frequent
Pest
droughts Faster
Increased
growing
Heat flooding and
periods
stress salinisation
Note: A changing climate will affect agro-ecosystems in various ways, with either benefits or negative consequences dominating
in different agricultural regions. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, higher temperatures, changing patterns of
precipitation, and changing frequencies of extreme events will have significant effects on crop production, with associated
consequences for water resources and pest/disease distributions.
Projections
Key messages
• Between 1975 and 2006 clear trends, both • Current trends and future scenarios depict an
positive and negative, were evident in water increase in the demand for water in agriculture,
requirement across Europe, with marked potentially increasing competition for water
spatial variability. A significant increase in between sectors and uses.
water demand (50–70 %) occurred mainly
in Mediterranean areas; large decreases
were recorded mainly in northern and central
European regions.
> + 60
+ 20 to + 60
– 20 to + 20
– 20 to – 60
< – 60
Statistical significance
0.05
0 800 1600 Km
Note: The rate of change of the 'meteorological water balance', expressed in m3 ha-1 y-1 The map provides an estimate of the
increase (red in the map) or decrease (blue in the map) of the volume of water required from irrigation in order to ensure
that crop growth is not limited by water stress.
Past trends
Deficit or surplus (mm) Highlands and islands (United Kingdom) Deficit or surplus (mm) Sud-Vest (Romania)
150 100
100 0
50 – 100
0
– 200
– 50
– 300
– 100
– 150 – 400
– 200 – 500
– 250 – 600
19 4
19 6
19 8
19 0
19 2
84
19 6
19 8
19 0
92
19 4
19 6
20 8
20 0
20 2
20 4
20 6
08
19 4
19 6
19 8
19 0
19 2
84
19 6
19 8
90
92
19 4
19 6
98
20 0
20 2
20 4
20 6
08
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
9
0
0
0
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
Deficit or surplus (mm) Castilla y Leon (Spain) Deficit or surplus (mm) Piemonte (Italy)
– 200 400
300
– 300
200
– 400 100
0
– 500
– 100
– 600 – 200
– 300
– 700
– 400
– 800 – 500
19 4
19 6
19 8
19 0
19 2
84
19 6
19 8
19 0
92
19 4
19 6
20 8
20 0
02
20 4
20 6
08
19 4
19 6
19 8
19 0
19 2
84
19 6
19 8
19 0
92
19 4
19 6
20 8
20 0
20 2
20 4
20 6
08
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
19
19
19
20
19
19
19
Key messages
• In much of continental Europe, the majority of • The distribution and phenology of other plant
forests are now growing faster than in the early and animal species (both pests and pollinators)
20th century. are likely to change, leading to further
alterations in competitive dynamics in forests
• A changing climate will favour certain species in that will be difficult to predict.
some forest locations, while making conditions
worse for others, leading to substantial shifts in • Periods of drought and warm winters are
vegetation distribution. increasing pest populations and further
weakening forests.
Map 5.43 Current (2000) and projected (2100) forest coverage in Europe
Hemiboreal, nemoral
coniferous, mixed
broadleaved
Alpine coniferous
Acidophilous oak,
oak-birch
Mesophytic deciduous
Beech
Montane beech
Thermophilous
deciduous
Broadleaved evergreen
Note: Modelled to evaluate the change of habitat suitability coverage of the ten most dominant European Forest Categories
(EEA, 2006), used IPCC SRES A1B scenario and NCAR CCM3 model.
Past trends
Figure 5.41 Impacts of climate change on forest growth and forest conditions
Warmer winter weather is likely to increase productivity Reduced summer rainfall may reduce tree growth and
by extending the length of the growing season severe droughts may kill increasing numbers of trees.
(Cannell et al., 1998).
Elevated atmospheric ozone concentrations may have
Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations can have a a negative impact on growth (Sitch et al., 2007;
fertilising effect. Karnosky et al., 2005).
Cold and snow-related damage are likely to become Violent storms may occur more often, and more trees
less common. are likely to be damaged or blown down.
Source: Produced by Tracy Houston Durrant (Joint Research Centre (JRC)) for this report.
Key messages
• In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather • The period during which fire danger exists will
is expected and, as a consequence, more area become longer as a result of climate change,
burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons. with a probable increase in the frequency of
extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn.
• Climate change will increase the fire potential
during summer months, especially in southern
and central Europe.
– 3.30 to –1
– 0.99 to – 0.75
– 0.74 to – 0.5
– 0.49 to – 0.25
– 0.24 to 0
0.01 to 0.25
0.26 to 0.5
0.51 to 1
1.01 to 2.5
2.51 to 8.71
Statistical significance
of fire danger trend
Trend highly significant
(p < 0.01)
Trend significant
(p < 0.05)
Note: Based on use of Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR). The map indicates the increase in fire danger in as a percentage of a
historic absolute value which is not shown in the figure.
Map 5.45 Modelled three-monthly fire danger levels in Europe for 1961–1990 and
2071–2100 and change between these periods
Projected (2071–2100)
and control (1961–1900)
March-April-May
0.0 – 1.3
June-July-August
2.5 0
5 0.3
7.5 0.5
10 1
12.5 2.5
September-October-
15 5
November
20 10
> 20 > 10
Note: Based on the IPCC SRES high emissions A2 scenario and the HIRAM model. Fire danger in winter months (DJF) is not
shown because it is negligible.