The

Essential Report
1 October 2013

MELBOURNE | SYDNEY | BRISBANE | ADELAIDE | BRUSSELS |

www.essentialresearch.com.au

The Essential Report

Date: Prepared by: Data supplied: 1 October 2013 Essential Research

Essential Media Communications is a member of the Association of Market and Social Research Organisations. Our researchers are members of the Australian Market and Social Research Society

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About this poll

This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online from the 26th to 30th September and is based on 1,019 respondents. Aside from the standard question on voting intention, this weeks report includes questions on climate change, the carbon tax, manufacturing, asylum seekers boat arrivals and the ABCC . The methodology used to carry out this research is described in the appendix on page 12. Note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary.

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Federal politics voting intention

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? Q. If dont know -Well which party are you currently leaning to? Sample size = 1,908 respondents Election 4 weeks 2 weeks Last This 7 Sep 13 First preference/leaning to ago ago week week (current 2/9/13 16/9/13 24/9/13 1/10/13 figures) Liberal 41% 42% 41% 40% National 3% 3% 2% 3% Total Lib/Nat 45.5% 44% 44% 43% 43% Labor 33.4% 35% 36% 37% 36% Greens 8.7% 11% 9% 9% 9% Other/Independent 12.4% 10% 11% 11% 12% 4 weeks 2 weeks Last This Election 2 Party Preferred ago ago week week 7 Sep 13 2/9/13 16/9/13 24/9/13 1/10/13 Liberal National 53.4% 52% 53% 51% 52% Labor 46.6% 48% 47% 49% 48% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select dont know are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Climate change
Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earths climate which happens from time to time? 30 May 15 Oct 29 Jan Total Vote Vote Vote Nov 09 Dec 10 14 Jun 27 May 11 12 13 1 Oct Labor Lib/Nat Greens Climate change is happening and is 53% 45% 52% 50% 48% 51% 51% 52% 67% 36% 82% caused by human activity We are just witnessing a normal 34% 36% 36% 39% 39% 40% 35% 36% 22% 51% 10% fluctuation in the earths climate Dont know 13% 19% 12% 12% 13% 9% 14% 12% 10% 12% 8% 52% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 36% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earths climate. This is a similar result to when this question was previously asked in May. By age groups, those aged under 35 split 61%/25% and those aged 55+ split 42%/48%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity - those with university degrees split 64%/27%.

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Carbon Pricing
Q. Do you support or oppose the previous Labor Governments carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit? 7 Mar 25 Jun 29 Jan Total Vote Vote Vote 14 June 19 Sep 21 Nov 2 Oct 27 May 2011 2012 2013 1 Oct Labor Lib/Nat Greens Total support 35% 38% 37% 38% 35% 38% 37% 43% 39% 65% 14% 86% Total oppose 48% 49% 52% 53% 54% 48% 50% 43% 47% 21% 76% 9% Strongly support 9% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 15% 15% 28% 2% 47% Support 26% 25% 23% 24% 21% 26% 26% 28% 24% 37% 12% 39% Oppose 19% 19% 17% 17% 19% 22% 22% 20% 23% 14% 35% 7% Strongly oppose 29% 30% 35% 36% 35% 26% 28% 23% 24% 7% 41% 2% Dont know 18% 13% 12% 10% 11% 14% 12% 13% 15% 15% 10% 4% Support for carbon pricing has dropped since the last time the question was polled in May. Support is down four points to 39% and opposition up four points to 47%. Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (65%) and Greens voters (86%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 76% of Coalition voters oppose it. Younger respondents were more likely to support carbon pricing than older respondents - for those aged under 35, 47% support and 34% oppose while 64% of those aged 55+ oppose and 29% support.

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Climate change policies

Q. The new Liberal Government plans to dump the carbon tax and replace it with what they call a direct action plan which involves planting trees and paying companies to reduce their carbon pollution. Which approach to climate change would you favour? 27 May 13 The current tax on the largest polluting companies to encourage them 39% to reduce carbon pollution The Liberals policy to plant trees and pay companies to reduce 29% carbon pollution Neither 18% Dont know 14% Total 31% 35% 16% 17% Vote Labor 57% 13% 14% 16% Vote Vote Lib/Nat Greens 9% 57% 18% 16% 62% 9% 6% 22%

31% favour the previous Governments policy on addressing climate change and 35% favour the Liberal Governments direct action plan. 16% do not support either approach. This is a significant shift in favour of the Liberals plan. The previous Governments approach had strongest support from Labor voters (57%), Greens voters (62%) and people with university degrees (37%). The Liberal Governments plan had strongest support from Liberal/National voters (57%) and people aged 55+ (44%).

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Manufacturing Industry
Q. Thinking about the Australian manufacturing industry, which of the following statements is closest to your view? Vote Vote Vote Total Aug 2012 Jun 2013 Labor Lib/Nat Greens With Government support, Australia can have a 65% 70% 64% 60% 63% 61% successful manufacturing industry There is no future for manufacturing in Australia and 19% 17% 23% 17% 17% 22% Government support would be a waste of money Dont know 16% 13% 14% 23% 21% 17% 65% agree that With Government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry and 19% agree There is no future for manufacturing in Australia and Government support would be a waste of money. Those who think that Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry has increased 4% and those thinking There is no future for manufacturing in Australia has dropped 3% since this question was last asked in June. Those most likely to agree that Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry were aged 45+ (69%), Labor voters (70%) and people on income of less than $1,000pw (75%). Those most likely to agree that There is no future for manufacturing in Australia were men (25%), Liberal/National voters (23%) and people on incomes over $1,600pw (28%).

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Importance of Car Manufacturing

Q. How important is it that Australia has a car manufacturing industry, even if it costs hundreds of millions of dollars each year in Government support and subsidies? Vote Vote Vote Jun Total Labor Lib/Nat Greens 2013 Total important 58% 63% 59% 45% 52% Total not important 30% 26% 33% 33% 35% Very important 24% 31% 22% 12% 19% Somewhat important 34% 32% 37% 33% 33% Not very important 18% 16% 19% 21% 24% Not at all important 12% 10% 14% 11% 11% Dont know 12% 12% 8% 24% 12% 58% think that it is very or somewhat important that Australia has a car manufacturing industry, even if it costs hundreds of millions of dollars each year in Government support and subsidies. 30% think it is not very or not at all important. This represents a significant increase in importance since this question was previously asked in June. Those most likely to think it was important were Labor voters (63%) and people on incomes under $1,000pw (65%). 33% of Liberal/National voters, 33% of Greens voters and 38% of people with university degrees thought it not important.

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Information about asylum seeker boat arrivals

Q. Under previous Governments the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service has issued statements whenever an asylum-seeker boat arrived. Do you approve or disapprove of the Abbott Governments decision to stop providing this information about the arrival of asylum-seeker boats? Vote Vote Vote Total Labor Lib/Nat Greens Total approve 39% 16% 67% 13% Total disapprove 48% 75% 21% 74% Strongly approve 16% 5% 31% 7% Approve 23% 11% 36% 6% Disapprove 16% 20% 15% 13% Strongly disapprove 32% 55% 6% 61% Dont know 13% 9% 12% 12% 39% approve of the Abbott Governments decision to stop providing information about the arrival of asylum-seeker boats and 48% disapprove. Views are strongly associated with political party preference - 75% of Labor voters and 74% of Greens voters disapprove while 67% of Liberal/National voters approve.

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Australian Building and Construction Commission

Q. The Abbott Government has committed to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission to address claims of union militancy in the construction industry. The ABCCs powers included preventing any person from revealing they had been forced to give testimony to the Commission, and overriding a persons right to silence. Do you support or oppose re-establishing the ABCC? Vote Vote Vote Total Labor Lib/Nat Greens Total support 29% 13% 52% 12% Total oppose 22% 39% 5% 46% Strongly support 12% 4% 25% 4% Support 17% 9% 27% 8% Neither support nor oppose 23% 22% 22% 16% Oppose 9% 13% 3% 21% Strongly oppose 13% 26% 2% 25% Dont know 25% 27% 21% 25% 29% support re-establishing the ABCC and 22% oppose. 48% have no opinion either way. 35% of men support compared to 23% of women.

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Appendix: Methodology, margin of error and professional standards

The data gathered for this report is gathered from a weekly online omnibus conducted by Your Source. Essential Research has been utilizing the Your Source online panel to conduct research on a week-by-week basis since November 2007. Each week, the team at Essential Media Communications discusses issues that are topical and a series of questions are devised to put to the Australian public. Some questions are repeated regularly (such as political preference and leadership approval), while others are unique to each week and reflect media and social issues that are present at the time. Your Source has a self-managed consumer online panel of over 100,000 members. The majority of panel members have been recruited using off line methodologies, effectively ruling out concerns associated with online self-selection. Your Source has validation methods in place that prevent panellist over use and ensure member authenticity. Your Source randomly selects 18+ males and females (with the aim of targeting 50/50 males/females) from its Australia wide panel. An invitation is sent out to approximately 7000 8000 of their panel members. The response rate varies each week, but usually delivers 1000+ interviews. In theory, with a sample of this size, there is 95 per cent certainty that the results are within 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire population had been polled. However, this assumes random sampling, which, because of non- response and less than 100% population coverage cannot be achieved in practice. Furthermore, there are other possible sources of error in all polls including question wording and question order, interviewer bias (for telephone and face-to-face polls), response errors and weighting. The best guide to a polls accuracy is to look at the record of the polling company - how have they performed at previous elections or other occasions where their estimates can be compared with known population figures. In the last poll before the 2010 election, the Essential Report estimates of first preference votes were all within 1% of the election results. The Your Source online omnibus is live from the Wednesday night of each week and closed on the following Sunday. Incentives are offered to participants in the form of points. Essential Research uses the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software to analyse the data. The data is weighted against Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. All Essential Research and senior Your Source staff hold Australian Market and Social Research Society (AMSRS) membership and are bound by professional codes of behaviour. Your Source is an Australian social and market research company specializing in recruitment, field research, data gathering and data analysis. Essential Research is a member of the Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO). Your Source holds Interviewer Quality Control Australia (IQCA) accreditation, Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO) membership and World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research Professionals (ESOMAR) membership. Both Essential Research and Your Source are ISO accredited market research companies. This research was conducted in compliance with AS: ISO20252 guidelines.

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