Relation of Dry and Wet Years of Indian Summer Monsoon with Indian Ocean SST during ENSO and

non-ENSO periods
Hamza Varikoden and B. Preethi
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune-08, INDIA hamza@tropmet.res.in ABSTRACT This paper explore the regional characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) during dry and wet monsoon years associated with ENSO and non ENSO periods. Four cases of ISMR such as wet monsoon years associated with ENSO (EW) and non ENSO (NW) events and dry monsoon years associated with ENSO (ED) and non ENSO (ND) events. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and non ENSO show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall. During wet years (EW and NW), the rainfall anomaly is higher in the west coastal stations. However, during EW years, the rainfall anomaly is higher in the northern part of the west coast while during the NW years, the anomaly is higher in southwest coastal regions. In central India, the rainfall anomaly is abnormally high only during the wet years associated with non ENSO events (NW). The west coastal areas receive below normal rainfall during ED, ND years, however, the negative anomalies are large during ED years compared to ND years. The Indian Ocean SST features associated with these interannual variability of ISMR were also studied in detail. Irrespective of the occurrence of ENSO, SST anomaly is positive in the Indian Ocean during wet years and negative during dry years, indicating that Indian Ocean SSTs play a significant role in modulating ISMR.
INTRODUCTION
Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) contributes about 70-90% of annual rainfall over India. The frequent droughts and floods are the manifestation of year to year variability of ISMR. The magnitudes of these variabilities are different at different locations over the subcontinent. It has been established that the year to year variability of ISMR has a good teleconnection with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation, etc. Apart from these teleconnective relations, the ISMR shows floods and droughts in the absence of IOD/ENSO and the reason for this should be studied. The most dominant mode of variability of the Asian summer monsoon is that arising as a response to the basin-scale SST anomalies during ENSO. ENSO has an impact on the ISMR variability and which influences the dry and wet conditions over the Indian Peninsula.

DATA USED
Rainfall data set with 1 latitude x 1 longitude grid resolution available from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for a period from 1901 to 2003. Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) for the same period were also used. This data set have a resolution of 2 latitude x 2 longitude grid. Zonal and Meridional were used form NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1948 onwards. The data set have a spatial resolution of 2.5 X 2.5 latitude longitude grid. METHODS An ENSO index is created using the ERSST data set as SST anomaly (SSTA) over NINO3.4 region (area averaged SSTA over 170oW-120oW, 5oS-5oN). An year as El Nino when the 5 month running mean of the nino3.4 index exceed 0.4o C for the six consecutive months and a La Nina is when the index is less than -0.4o C for the six consecutive months. The 103 years (from 1901 to 2003) have been classified as wet and dry years of ISMR based on the summer monsoon rainfall anom0ly normalized with its own standard deviation. A wet year associated with ENSO event is called the ENSO Wet (EW) A wet year in the normal SST is called Normal Wet (NW) Similarly the dry years are classified ED (with ENSO) and ND (with Normal).

OBJECETIVES
Study the Spatial differences in rainfall Pattern during wet and dry period Study the role of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean during wet and dry years of ISMR with and without ENSO Study the circulation pattern associated with the above phases of ISMR

CLASSIFICATION OF EW, NW, ED AND ND

INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY During southwest monsoon period, heavy rainfall occurs over the Konkan coast and the northeastern regions of the Indian Peninsula, where the monsoon rainfall exceeds 20 mm/day. Over the central India, the rainfall is about 10 mm/day and it is less than 5 mm/day over southeast India and northwest Indian regions. The spatial distribution of rainfall varies considerably during wet and dry years of monsoon, moreover the occurrence and non occurrence of ENSO can again alter the spatial pattern of rainfall over the country.

ENSO index and standardized ISMR anomaly. ISMR (mm/d) climatology(1901-2003) The figure shows that the flood and drought years are occurring without El Nino or La Nina. The years of NW, ND, EW and ED are given in table INDIAN OCEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AND CIRCULATION PATTERN AT 850 HPA DURING SOUTHWEST MONSOON PERIOD ISMR ANOMALY DURING EW, NW, ED, ND AND ENSO MINUS NORMAL

Rainfall anomaly (mm/month) for (a) EW, (b) NW, (c) difference between a and b, (d)ED, (e) ND and (f) difference between d and e.

SST anomaly in the Indian Ocean during (a) EW, (b) ED, (c) NW and (d) ND years. SST anomaly after removing the effect of ENSO (e) EW, (f) ED, (g) NW and (h) ND years.

Circulation anomaly at 850 hPa during EW, ED, NW and ND years.

Significant differences are observed in the spatial characteristics of ISMR between wet years associated with and without ENSO. During EW years, the rainfall anomaly is higher in the northern part of the west coastal stations. However, for NW years, the rainfall anomaly is more in the southern part of the Konkan coast. In the EW years, the rainfall anomaly is almost uniformly distributed all over central India but in the case of NW years central and northern India receives higher rainfall amount. The regional distribution of rainfall during dry years also differ significantly between ENSO and non ENSO years. During ED years, Indian Peninsula experiences below normal rainfall and minimal rainfall were noticed in the west coastal stations and northern India. However, during ND years the west coastal belt is not experiencing severe drought similar to that during ED years. Below normal rainfall is occurring mostly in the central India during the ND years.
Acknowledgment We thank Prof. B.N. Goswami, Director, IITM for the support and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) for the financial support .

WET Phase of ISMR: During EW years, a basin wide cooling is observed in the western side and warming in the eastern side of the Indian Ocean. After removal of the ENSO effect, we observed that the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal is warm and hence it is conducive to organized convection. Therefore, during negative ENSO, the Indian Ocean and the circulation induced by the Pacific Ocean SST are favorable for enhanced precipitation and thus ISMR is above normal in most of the negative ENSO periods. In the case of non ENSO periods, ISMR is above normal and the SST pattern is different from the ENSO years. The SST pattern shows an positive IOD structure. Therefore, it can be concluded that the ISMR flood is either controlled by negative ENSO or positive IOD. The SST anomaly pattern after removing the effect of ENSO is also shows the same result.

DRY phase of ISMR: Indian Ocean is warm during ED years especially towards the south, however, the ENSO induced circulation caused subsidence over the Indian subcontinent and thus the rainfall is below normal. Removal of the effect of ENSO from the SST anomaly shows that most of the Indian Ocean is normal or below normal temperature. The below normal temperature in the equatorial Indian Ocean also leads to subsidize the air over it and hence it prevent the organized convection and ultimately leads to drought condition During non ENSO years, the SST anomaly is negative in the entire Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Below normal temperature in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal leads for subsidence and thus it prevents the organist convection. During non ENSO years, there is no external forcing from the Pacific Ocean and therefore the Indian Ocean play crucial role in bringing the drought condition over Indian region.

CONCLUSIONS
Significant differences in the spatial characteristics of ISMR are observed between wet and dry years associated with ENSO and non ENSO. During EW years, the rainfall anomaly is higher in the northern part of the west coastal stations. In the absence of ENSO, the Indian Ocean is dominated by the influence of positive IOD and therefore during wet monsoon years, the rainfall over India is governed by either ENSO or IOD. The occurrence of ENSO produces a negative SST anomaly over southern Indian ocean during wet monsoon years while ENSO can produce positive SST anomaly over southern Indian Ocean during dry monsoon years. In the case of dry years, the ENSO influences the ISMR and lead to the drought condition. However, during non ENSO years, the below normal SST over Indian Ocean leads to drought. Detrended SST anomaly over the Equatorial Indian Ocean after removing the ENSO effect shows that SST anomaly is above normal during wet years and below normal during dry years.