Qualitative Risk Assessment of Avian Influenza Emergence in Sub-saharan African

Countries: The case of Senegal

Mayigane L.N.1 ; Etter E.2 & Akakpo A.J.1
1 Inter-States School of Veterinary Sciences and Medicine (EISMV) of Dakar, Senegal
2 CIRAD UR 22 " Animal et Gestion Intégrée des Risques" Montpellier, France

Introduction
The threat of Avian Influenza in the sub-saharan african countries is
Legal Import: Brazil, France ;
still present as the epizootic continues to spread slowly within the west Holland, USA…
Border countries: Mali, Guinea Conakry,
Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, The Gambia
and central parts of the continent.
BIP
Senegal is at risk of the epizootic emergence with regards to the Informal trade ?
importance of the poultry industry in the country.
Poultry multiplication Local Markets
Methods centers / Commercial farms
Principal Markets : (louma)
On the basis of international standards, we combined the likelihood of Main cities
virus introduction, the likelihood of its dissemination and the consequences
of an infection to assess the risk [1] . Rural Farms
Supermarkets Slaughterhouses Villages : Back-yard farming
(Small producers)
First we have designed a model of poultry products importations and
commercial pathways out of data collected (Figure 1).
Consumers
Results
The poultry farming in Senegal is essentially unimproved back-yard Introduction pathway
BIP : Border Inspection Post
Exposure places
system (Figure 2). Dissemination pathway

We established 30 and 60 scenarios for Avian Influenza emergence via Figure 1. Possible pathways for HP H5N1 virus introduction and dissemination in Senegal
respectively the legal import of breeding chicks and hatching eggs and 30
scenarios for illegal import. Each scenario is associated with a certain
level of risk. Illegal import of
MODERATE
poultry products

The risk evolution with regards to the scenarios shows that only the illegal LOW TO MODERATE
legal import of
import of poultry products represents a moderate risk for 13.4 % of infected hatching
scenarios established (Figure 3). Level of RisK LOW eggs

legal import of
Discussion NEGLIGIBLE infected breeding
Senegal is in compliance with OIE recommendations in terms of chicks

importations. NULL TO NEGLIGIBLE

Border countries to Senegal are free of Avian influenza Virus as of Figure 2. Unimproved back-yard system 0%
20%
in Senegal 40%
present status. 60%
Percentage of scenarios
The illegal import of poultry products has been a major cause of Avian
Figure 3. Risk evolution of Avian Influenza emergence in Senegal
Influenza emergence in the sub- saharan african countries so far affected
[2] . References
[1] Ahl A.S., Acree J.A., Gipson P.S., Mc Dowell R.M., Miller L. and McElvaine M.D., « Standardization of nomenclature for animal
The amplifying factor for the risk and which should be more addressed in health risk analysis» (1993) Rev. sci. tech. Off. Int. Epiz.,12, 1045-1053
the national preparedness plan is the virus dissemination likelihood. This [2] Squarzoni S., Bastiaensen P., Plante C., Denormandie N. and Seck B.,« La grippe Aviaire en Afrique Subsaharienne: un premier
bilan » (2006). Epidémiologie et santé animale. 50, 57-59
is due to the importance of poultry trade movements within Senegal.
Acknowledgment
The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development of Senegal
Such work should be carried out in other african countries not yet affected The senegalese National Committee for Prevention and Fight against Avian Flu (CONAGA)
for effective preparedness based on a calculated level of risk. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)