Reliability Analytics

Understanding the historical costs, failure fre-

quencies, and trends of production assets is a
critical component of any comprehensive asset
performance management program. With a
clear understanding of poorly performing equip-
ment, where improvement opportunities exist,
and the impact of design changes, asset owners
can implement the most effective strategies and
designs to optimize utilization and costs.
Meridiums Reliability Analytics module is part of the
Performance Management suite and an integrated compo-
nent of a complete Asset Performance Management
(APM) enterprise solution which assesses and quantifies
the performance of operational assets. The module con-
tains two core sets of functionality: Statistical Analysis and
Modeling & Simulation.
Statistical Analysis
The Statistical Analysis component provides a collection
of analytical tools and methods that apply reliability-
engineering principles to help you make tactical and
strategic decisions to optimize the performance of your
assets.
Production Analysis
Most plants contain a hidden plant, which represents the
production capacity lost due to inefficient processes and
under-utilized equipment. The potential for increasing
profitability hinges upon the ability to identify improve-
ment opportunities, then implement strategies that will
increase production.
Production Analysis provides an easy method of plotting
production output data for the purpose of evaluating
process reliability and calculating costs related to equip-
ment failures, process slowdowns, and production shut-
downs. The results of a production analysis can help you
pinpoint the source of significant production losses so that
improvement strategies can be developed accordingly.
Production Analysis includes these capabilities:
Production Analysis Plot - Provides a visual summary
of the analysis results, showing the demonstrated pro-
duction rate, reliability losses, efficiency/utilization
losses, and the overall reliability of the process.
Loss Calculations - Shows the cost associated with
efficiency/utilization losses and reliability losses, mak-
ing it easy to identify the source of profit losses and
potential improvement. Loss calculations define the
process in financial terms that are significant to man-
agement.
Drawing Tools - Allows users to draw nameplate,
demonstrated, and custom production lines manually,
using regression fit, or by specifying Beta and/or Eta
values.
Custom Production Lines - Compares custom pro-
duction rates to the demonstrated production rate of
the plotted datapoints and can be used to set produc-
tion goals for the future and to compare current pro-
duction rates to historical rates.
Data Censoring - Provides the ability to exclude indi-
vidual datapoints from the analysis and create sub-
regions within the Reliability Loss region to calculate
losses for different categories.
Data Grouping - Allows analysts to color-code pro-
duction data by category, such as product type, shift,
or loss reason. Grouping data can provide greater
insight into losses by visually sorting the datapoints
into groups to highlight the causes of shutdowns or
slowdowns.
Reporting Tools - Lets users easily copy the detailed
results and paste them into other applications or gen-
erate a full analysis report to prepare a presentation of
the results to other groups within the organization.
Reliability Growth (AMSSA-Crow Growth)
Knowing the performance impact on assets when changes
are made to the engineering design, maintenance strate-
gies, or operating procedures can provide key insight into
what improvement programs are working. Growth
Analysis is a statistical method that can quantify changes
in performance by calculating whether MTBF (Mean Time
Between Failure) is increasing or decreasing over time.
Plots - Provides a visual repre-
sentation of the calculated dis-
tributions and shows how well
they fit the actual data.
Analysis of the data is stream-
lined through access to the
underlying data and the ability
to censor data directly from any
plots, which include:
Cumulative Failures
MTBF
Analysis Segmenting - Allows
you to create a single analysis
that includes all failure data or
to split the analysis into multi-
ple segments representing the
before-change and after-change
datasets.
Time To Failure (TTF)
Estimation - Estimates the time
to next failure based upon the
results of the Growth Analysis.
Extrapolate - Allows you to
project the number of failures
that will occur in the future
based upon the historical trend.
Confidence Intervals - Provides the ability to define
and display a confidence interval for an analysis.
Goodness of Fit - Utilizes the Cramer-von Mises test
to show how well the data fits the calculated distribu-
tion.
Reliability Distributions
Reliability Distributions (Weibull, Exponential,
Lognormal, and Normal) provide an understanding of cur-
rent failure patterns and expected life using relatively small
datasets. Reliability Distributions can also be used to opti-
mize preventive maintenance (PM) intervals and accurate-
ly forecast future failures.
Plots - Provides a visual representation of the calcu-
lated distributions and shows how well they fit the
actual data. Analysis of the data is streamlined
through access to the underlying data and the ability
to censor data directly from any plots, which include:
Failure Timeline
Probability
Failure Rate
PDF (Probability Distribution Function)
CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function)
TTF and TTR (Time to Repair) Distributions -
Quantifies the data in a way that helps you under-
stand the types of failures occurring, as well as the
reliability and maintainability of the assets.
Production analysis
PM Optimization - Uses the results of the reliability
distribution analysis to estimate the optimum PM
intervals based upon the ratio of unplanned to
planned costs.
Failure Probability - Allows users to predict future
reliability based upon the results of a reliability analy-
sis and supports fact-based decisions regarding
planned overhaul schedule and scope.
Least Squares and Maximum Likelihood - Provides
support for both methods for estimating parameters
used in the distribution.
Confidence Intervals - Provides the ability to define
and display confidence intervals for an analysis.
Goodness of Fit - Utilizes the R-Squared linear regres-
sion and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to show how
well the data fits the calculated distribution.
Probability Distributions
Probability Distributions (Weibull, Exponential,
Lognormal, and Normal) allow users to conduct statistical
analysis of non-time-based datasets. Probability
Distributions are commonly used to analyze throughput
and production rates for the purpose of understanding
demonstrated asset capabilities and determining where pro-
duction was not optimal so that improvement strategies
can be identified and implemented.
Plots - Provides a visual representation of the calcu-
lated distributions and how well they fit the actual
data. Analysis of the data is streamlined by providing
access to the underlying data and the ability to censor
data directly from any plots, which include:
Probability
PDF
CDF
Least Squares and Maximum Likelihood - Provides
support for both methods for estimating parameters
used in the distribution.
Confidence Intervals - Provides the ability to define
and display confidence intervals for an analysis.
Goodness of Fit - Utilizes the R-Squared linear regres-
sion and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to show how
well the data fits the calculated distribution.
Cost of Unreliability
Cost of Unreliability calculations provide a comprehensive
view of asset failure costs, downtime, lost profit opportuni-
ties, and availability. With these capabilities, asset unrelia-
bility can be quantified, allowing you to focus on the most
critical assets. Plots include:
Cost
MTBF
MTTR (Mean Time to Repair)
Availability
Number of Failures
Downtime
Reliability growth analysis
Cost of unreliability
Reliability Automation Rules
After the data needed to perform statistical analysis is flowing
into the system, reliability automation rules can be utilized to
collect the appropriate data automatically and then use that
data to create new analyses automatically. By automating this
process, analysts can spend less time collecting data and per-
forming calculations and more time analyzing the results to
evaluate asset performance.
Rule Builder - Guides you step-by-step through the
process of creating automation rules. Using the builder,
you can easily choose the assets for which to collect
data and define other criteria to customize rules.
Rule Execution - Allows analysts to run rules on an as-
needed basis to collect data and create analyses.
Analysis Preview - Provides a list of the analyses that
will be created when an automation rule is executed.
From the preview list, individual analyses can be com-
bined to create merged analyses.
Spares Analysis
As more and more companies implement spares reduction
initiatives, the risk of major losses due to critical spare stock-
outs becomes more likely. Since many spares optimization
solutions are based heavily on usage data, they are inappropri-
ate for insurance and slow moving critical spares. Ensuring
the correct holding level for these spares can greatly reduce
the risk of stock-out-based lost production opportunities.
Meridiums Spares Analysis solution provides a risk-based
optimization for these spares that is not reliant on usage
history. The results of an analysis provide the financial
justification for the optimal spares holding levels.
Spares Analysis includes these capabilities:
Monte-Carlo-Based Simulation Engine - Allows ana-
lysts to project the financial impact of various spares
strategies.
Preventive Maintenance Modeling - Allows users to
account for planned replacement or repair activities
Population Age Support - Provides the ability to take
into consideration the age of parts currently in service.
Integration with Reliability Distributions - Allows ana-
lysts to leverage historical failure data when available.
What-If Analysis - Provides ability to analyze various
scenarios and compare economic implications of each.
Plots:
Spares Level Plot - Determines the optimal spare
level and quantifies the mitigated risk/cost com-
pared to the existing holding level.
Downtime Plot - Reviews the downtime impact of
stock-outs compared to corrective and preventive
maintenance.
Spare Usage Plot - Reviews the average forecasted
spares usage for each year analyzed.
Sensitivity Plot - Reviews the sensitivity of risk/cost
to the number of spares.
Optimal Holding Plot - Compares the optimal
spares level for each year to the optimal holding
level for the entire analysis period.
Monte Carlo simulation
Reliability block diagram
Modeling & Simulation
The Modeling and Simulation component of the Meridium
Reliability Analytics module is an integrated application that
provides the capability to model the connectivity of produc-
tion assets and assess the reliability and availability of a col-
lection of assets, a production unit, or a complete facility.
In addition, analytical simulations can be performed to
understand the future reliability of assets given the historical
values that have been calculated in the Statistical Analysis
tools. What-if simulations can also be performed to compare
changes in asset configurations, changes in the maintenance
strategy, or changes in reliability.
Meridiums Modeling and Simulation component helps com-
panies find answers to these and other questions:
What is the probability that we can achieve current
production goals?
How much will a proposed design change improve our
chances?
Will changes to our maintenance and inspection strate-
gy improve the situation, or could it make things worse?
System Models
System models graphically represent the physical configura-
tion of the systems components as well as the relationships in
terms of reliability. Meridiums modeling tools support the
following scenarios and configurations: assets in series vs.
parallel configurations, sparing strategies, k out of n con-
straints, unlimited levels of sub-systems, and the ability to
model external interruptions and multiple failure modes on
an asset/component.
Component Catalog - Provides access to common mod-
els, assets, components, and failure modes in a central-
ized library so that they can be shared and leveraged
among different divisions, sites, and groups.
Distribution Types - Supports Weibull, Exponential,
Lognormal, Normal, Single Value TTF, and TTR distri-
butions.
Import Capabilities - Provides the ability to import
existing components along with TTF and/or TTR dis-
tributions for related failure modes.
Subcomponents - Supports failures without replacement
modeling for equipment with multiple subcomponents,
such as tubes in a heat exchanger bundle.
Cost Modeling - Allows fixed and variable costs to be
used to model parts, labor, and downtime costs as well
as regulatory fines, fees, and other miscellaneous costs.
Supports latent failure modes (based on calendar time
as opposed to operating time).
Grid Mode - Provides an overview of the entire system
model where you can easily review and adjust the prop-
erties of all components within a system.
Model Validation - Allows the analyst to validate the
model configuration to ensure it is complete and valid
before performing analytical simulations.
System Analysis
Utilizing a Monte Carlo engine, users can simulate future
reliability, availability, and maintainability based upon histori-
cal asset performance.
Simulation Calculations - Provides calculated results for
each failure mode, aggregated for each component and
subsystem as well as for the entire system.
Number of Failures
Downtime
Cost of Unreliability
Availability
Time to Next Failure
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What-if Scenarios - Allows users to project the impact
of maintenance, inspection, and design changes.
Customization - Provides the ability to define the fol-
lowing analysis settings to customize the analysis:
Analysis period
Number of Monte Carlo iterations
Confidence intervals
Reports and Plots - Provides access to standard reports
and graphical plots, including:
System Model Configuration
Analytical and Simulation Results
CDF, PDF, Failure Rate and Reliability Importance
Plots
Additional Reliability Analytics Capabilities
Standard Integration with existing business systems -
Many companies already have systems, such as enter-
prise asset management (EAM) and production moni-
toring systems, which provide a wealth of historical
asset data. Meridium provides standard interfaces with
these systems, which eliminates the need to manually
collect and/or enter the data utilized for statistical relia-
bility analysis.
Recommendation Management - The Statistical
Analysis solution, like many of the other functional
areas of the Meridium system, allows the user to create
and track improvement recommendations to ensure
that corrective actions are followed up on and imple-
mented.
Alerts can also be defined to automatically notify or
escalate when recommendations have not been imple-
mented in a timely manner.
Integrated within a comprehensive APM system - All
Meridium products share a common database and the
work processes are fully integrated. The results of statis-
tical analysis can be utilized in other areas of the system
to drive Root Cause Analysis (RCA) or Reliability
Centered Maintenance (RCM or FMEA) studies, sys-
tem RAM models and simulations, as well as key per-
formance indicators.
Microsoft Office integration - Reports, plots and data
can be easily exported to Microsoft Office applications
such as Word, PowerPoint and Excel, as well as PDF
formats.
E-mail capabilities - Links to statistical analyses (as well
as any data in APM) can be sent through e-mail, facili-
tating collaboration within and between various sites.
Print - Provides the ability to print various reports,
plots, and data.
Meridiums Reliability Analytics module provides a set of
tools to help collect and analyze asset failure and production
data for the purpose of establishing historical trends and
developing improvement strategies. By implementing
Meridiums Reliability Analytics module, you can:
Evaluate asset performance by establishing trends using
historical data.
Predict future failures and losses.
Increase profitability by using analysis results to develop
strategies designed to improve asset reliability.
Determine the effectiveness of strategies through con-
tinuous monitoring of asset performance.
The Reliability Analytics module is part of the Performance
Management suite, which is fully integrated with Meridiums
APM Framework platform. Meridiums Asset Performance
Management enterprise solution is not just reliability software
but is also a comprehensive set of business processes, work-
flows, and data capture that enables rigorous analysis to help
you define strategies based on best practices, plant history,
and fact-based decision support.