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Cant Handle the Truth

October 2013

Stephanie Pomboy
MacroMavens, LLC
spomboy@macromavens.com
tel 212.989.3311 fax 212.989.0022
www.macromavens.com
1

October 8, 2013

Domestic Nonfinancial Debt


% GDP

250

247%
246%

235

220

205

190

175

160

145

130
Source=Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds (Z.1)
115
1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

October 8, 2013

Mortgage Applications vs. Total Home Sales (New + Existing)


Millions

500
7.5
460

7.1
6.7

420

6.3

380

5.9
340
5.5
5.1

300

4.7

260

4.3
220
3.9
180

3.5
3.1
1995

140
1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

October 8, 2013

Consumer Spending
y/y%
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
Crisis
Collapse

0.0
-2.0
-4.0
1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

2013

October 8, 2013

Retail Sales ex Food & Energy


Nominal (- -) vs. Real*

$ Billion

$ Billion

2300

+$377b

3900

3625

2200
+$20b

3350
2100
3075
2000
2800
1900
2525
1800
2250
1700

1600
1995

1975
*Retail Sales ex Food & Energy, deflated by CPI

1997

1999

2001

2003

1700
2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Retail Sales Post-Crisis Recovery

Nominal Retail Sales

$ change

% change

$518b

11.5%

Nominal Retail Sales (ex F&E)

377

10.9

Real Retail Sales

30

1.0

Real Retail Sales (ex F&E)

20

0.9

October 8, 2013

Consumer Spending in excess of Spendable* Income

$ Billion

900

$729b

750

600

450

300

150

-150

*Disposable Income less non-cash Benefits (like health insurance)

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

October 8, 2013

Velocity of Money
vs. S&P 500 Index (- -)
11.0

1700

10.5

1550

10.0

1400

9.5
1250
9.0
1100

8.5
8.0

950

7.5

800

7.0

650

6.5
500
6.0
350

5.5

200

5.0
4.5
1971

50
1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

October 8, 2013

Foreign Purchase of US Treasuries

$ Billion

12 month sum
800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100
$75b

-100
1991

1993

1995

1997

Trsy Issuance
Trsy Purchases
Household
Foreign
Fed
Misc

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

1H:2013
735

2q:2013
298

-78
310
561
-58

-190
89
549
-150

2011

2013

Source=Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds

October 8, 2013

Fed Balance Sheet (- -)


vs. Gold

$ Billion

$/oz

3700

2150

3500

2000

3300

1850

3100
1700
2900
1550
2700
1400
2500
1250
2300
1100

2100

950

1900
1700
2009

800
2010

2011

2012

2013

MSCI Emerging Market Stocks


MSCI Developed Market Stocks

relative to
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

MacroMavens is the exclusive trademark of MacroMavens, LLC. The commentary released under its banner may not be forwarded, reproduced or
referenced without the express consent of MacroMavens. While we presume the information and data contained herein to be accurate, it is not guaranteed.

October 8, 2013