CRUDE REPORT

Date : DEC 17, 2008 MCX CRUDE UPDATE

CRUDE Crude Oil: A Volatile Ride in Crude Oil Market…

Yesterday, crude prices were falling despite the predicted severe global oil output
cut as a pessimistic sentiment caused by the ongoing economic predicament was
still spread in the black gold market having more and more weak economic data
being released globally and in the U.S, the biggest oil consumer, forecasting a
worsened outlook of a poorer production level suggesting that the demand on
energy will further slip to the downside, with a U.S industrial production that fell
so far by 0.6% in November. As a result, crude prices closed at $43.60 a barrel
recording a high of $46.53 per barrel and a low of $42.56 per barrel along with
an oil contract that showed a $0.91 shed. Crude prices inclined today as
investors are patiently waiting to know and see how gigantic the global oil output
Hurricanes cut will be by OPEC later today in Algeria, knowing of course that OPEC is a
worldwide petroleum organization that accounts for around 35% of global oil that
is being produced. Now, this cut on oil output, as told before, will be very
significant knowing that it has been highly forecasted this last period that it will
be around 2 million barrels per day.

Furthermore, U.S stocks increased today as a result of the interest cut that
occurred yesterday by the U.S Federal Reserve. This incline forecasted a rise in
the production level and therefore stronger oil consumption. Up till now, crude
prices opened at $43.75 a barrel recording a high of $44.67 per barrel and a low
of $43.73 per barrel. The EIA report will be released later today, expecting to
show a decline of 900K barrels in crude inventories along with a 1.5 million
Crude oil barrels incline in gasoline stocks and a decrease of 1.8 million barrels in distillate
inventories. Crude prices remain on weakening, but the expected vital cut on
global oil supplies that will be taken today will definitely help to boost crude
prices up, even if the cut effect will be momentary.

CRUDE INVENTORY PREVIOUS 0.4MBLS FORECAST -0.9MBLS

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE FOR CRUDE OIL

Forthcoming IN SPOT
Support 43.70 42.70 42.35 42.10 41.20
Resistance 45.10 46.00 47.55 47.90 48.60

ON MCX
Support 2344 2386 2426 2468 2512
Resistance 2286 2258 2227 2194 2167

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 CRUDE CHART UPDATE

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Crude failed to confirm the upside direction where from there it will continue to
decline as far as trading remains below 2480 level. We are seeing a consolidation
in the crude oil prices. On the downside market has a strong support around
2275 and aggressive traders can go long closer to this level for short term gains
only. Despite several signals of an incline, we still need to see confirmation.
Today we expect trading to be sideways on OPEC news crude can jump till 46-
48$ but at anytime we could witness a sharp decling towards the support can be
seen. The trading range for today is among the key support at 42.15 and the key
resistance at 48.60
Crude Weekly Level
Support 2344 2386 2426 2468 2512
Resistance 2286 2258 2227 2194 2167

1. BUY CRUDE @ 2280-2300 SL 2240 TGT 2334-2356-

2370-2398. MCX

2. SELL TILL 2400-2420 SL 2442 TGT 2365-2338-2320.

Trading Call /
Recommendat
MCX
ion of Crude.
3. ANY DIP TILL 2200-2230 IS GOOD LEVEL FOR BUYING.

4. OR ABV 2430 LOOK TO HAVE A JUMP TILL 2500 LEVEL.

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END OF THE REPORT