Excelet

Interpolation and Extrapolation:

What is the difference?
Place your cursor on the yellow box!

objectives:
1. discover the difference between interpolation and extrapolation
2. explore some limitations using aluminum can data

updated with 2011 data!

You can resize the screen by going to View on the menu bar and select Zoom...

Click on the tabs to navigate!

Extending the line - What is the difference between interpolation and extrapolation?
slope
m =
y

4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0

9.2
10.5
11.8
13.1
14.4
15.7
17.0

b =

x-intercept

4.0

-3.1

25
0
8.5
8.5

20

1.3

y-intercept

Explore the graph

by adjusting the
tracer point ( )
using the slider
below the graph.

15.05
15.05
0

15 two linear regressions

dotted line extended using
forcast
10
5
0
0

vary the x-value

from 0 to 15

85
x =

15

12

y =
15.1

interpolated

answer

8.5

Sinex 2006

15

The values of the

slope and the
y-intercept in the
yellow cells may
be changed. The
y-axis rescales,
while the x-axis is
fixed.

The Mass of an Aluminum Can from 1972 to 2011 - Going out on the line for 2012!
What do you notice about the data for the last few years?

So let's consider separate regressions.

1999-2011 and regression

1972-1998 and regression

all data and regression

updated!

industry can goal of 12 grams

Mass of Can (g)

25

20

TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

12-g can
2011

15

FALSE

10

y = -0.2097x + 433.65
R = 0.9486

5
0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Year

2012 can

What do you predict will be the mass of the aluminum can in 2012? What are you basing your
y = - 50
y = - 40
prediction on?

R = #N/A

12-g can

R = #N/A

answer
Sinex 2013

source:

http://www.aluminum.org

2011 can
2010 can
2009 can
2008 can
2007 can
2006 can
2005 can

year
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

mass (g)
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00
-50.00

http://www.aluminum.org

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

-40.00
-40.00
-40.00
-40.00
-40.00
-40.00

can limit
1980
-10
1990
-10
2000
-10

year
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

mass (g)
20.87
20.40
20.00
19.74
19.48
19.34
19.20
19.16
18.74
18.57
18.01
17.67
17.46
17.07
16.81
16.57
16.07
15.49
15.97
15.73
15.50
15.38
15.07
14.61
14.22
13.94
13.74
13.72
13.71
13.59
13.44
13.46
13.38

20.87
20.40
20.00
19.74
19.48
19.34
19.20
19.16
18.74
18.57
18.01
17.67
17.46
17.07
16.81
16.57
16.07
15.49
15.97
15.73
15.50
15.38
15.07
14.61
14.22
13.94
13.74
13.72
13.71
13.59
13.44
13.46
13.38

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

-40.00
-40.00
-40.00
-40
-40
-40
-40

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

13.35
13.27
13.29
13.28
13.22
13.22
13.13

13.35
13.27
13.29
13.28
13.22
13.22
13.13

The residuals seem to illustrate a change in the trend. As well as there must be an engineering limit!
mass (g)
20.87
20.40
20.00
19.74
19.48
19.34
19.20
19.16
18.74
18.57
18.01
17.67
17.46
17.07
16.81
16.57
16.07
15.49
15.97
15.73
15.50
15.38
15.07
14.61
14.22
13.94
13.74
13.72
13.71
13.59
13.44
13.46
13.38

reg-calc
20.49
20.24
19.99
19.75
19.50
19.26
19.01
18.76
18.52
18.27
18.03
17.78
17.53
17.29
17.04
16.80
16.55
16.30
16.06
15.81
15.56
15.32
15.07
14.83
14.58
14.33
14.09
13.84
13.60
13.35
13.10
12.86
12.61

residual
0.39
0.16
0.01
-0.01
-0.02
0.09
0.19
0.40
0.22
0.30
-0.02
-0.11
-0.07
-0.22
-0.23
-0.23
-0.48
-0.81
-0.09
-0.09
-0.06
0.07
0.00
-0.21
-0.36
-0.40
-0.35
-0.13
0.11
0.24
0.34
0.60
0.77

Residuals plot for 1972-2011 data

fitting the residuals for 1998-2011

residual = 0.1992(year) - 398.35
R2 = 0.9962

2.50

2.00
1.50
Residuals

year
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

fitting the residuals

1.00
0.50
0.00
1970
-0.50

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

-1.00
Year

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

There is a trend in the residuals!!!

fitting the residuals

Sinex 2013

fitting the residuals

-0.35
-0.13
0.11
0.24
0.34
0.60
0.77
0.98
1.15
1.42

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

13.35
13.27
13.29
13.28
13.22
13.22
13.13

12.37
12.12
11.87
11.63
11.38
11.14
10.89
10.64

0.98
1.15
1.42
1.65
1.84
2.08
2.24

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

1.65
1.84
2.08
2.24
13.21689
13.22458
13.13277
.

updated with 2011

fitting the residuals for 1998-2010
residual = 0.1984(year) - 396.74
R2 = 0.9953

fitting the residuals for 1998-2009

residual = 0.1954(year) - 390.68
R2 = 0.995
fitting the residuals for 1998-2008
residual = 0.1928(year) - 385.53
R2 = 0.9941
fitting the residuals for 1998-2007
residual = 0.1881(year) - 376
R2 = 0.9941
fitting the residuals for 1998 -2006
residual = 0.1831(year) - 366
R2 = 0.9942
fitting the residuals for 1998-2005
residual = 0.1825(year) - 365
R2 = 0.9918
fitting the residuals for 1998 -2004
residual = 0.1795(year) - 359
R2 = 0.9881