GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW

09th September 2013

Gold prices in domestic futures tested historical highs in absolute as well as in percentage terms as MCX Gold rallied towards high 35074 per 10 gms on 28th August 2013 which is almost Rs. 7000/10 gms or 25% higher than last month close of 28207/10 gms. This rally was best at its monthly gain in ever MCX history of last 10 years and which recorded best gain after 2 years when in Augusts 2011, we had seen almost 22% rally when European financial crisis and US easy money policy was seen. However against this Spot Gold rose only by $ 110 per troy Ounce or we can say a gain of only 8.50% return month on month. During the month of august alone, Indian Rupee depreciated by almost 13% which contributed a major gains in Indian gold prices. Also, continue tightening BY Indian Government to control gold imports played sentiment role to increase premium of domestic gold prices over an international market. In order to curb gold demand, Government hiked import duty on gold thrice in 2013 to 10%. Custom duty on gold dore bars, ore or concentrate increased to 8% from 6%.Indian Government took every possible step to curb gold demand. In its latest effort, The Forward Markets Commission (FMC), which regulates the commodity futures market, hiked initial margin to 5 percent from 4 percent earlier in buy side and also imposed an additional 5 percent margin on gold, silver and crude oil futures contract from 2nd September 2013.Still future for Gold prices looks bullish as Indian Rupee is still trading in weak trajectory. Growing speculation the US was moving closer to take military action against Syrias government may continue to boost safe haven demand for the Gold. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the timing of a reduction in the Federal Reserves bond buying program continued after data showed that US economy grew more than expected in August. Gold's correction from $1434 continued last week and despite a brief breach of 1367.8 support, it quickly recovered. Further rise remains mildly in favor as rebound from 1179.4 could extend. But again, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1487.2 cluster resistance, 50% retracement of 1798.1 to 1179.4 at 1488.8, to bring reversal. Break of 1358.8 will turn outlook bearish for 1272.5 support. However, there is no sign of reversal yet as long as 1526.7 resistance holds. Gold should now be in a phase of range trading between 1179.6 and 1526.7 in medium term. Gold MCX October closed at Rs. 33015.During the month of August, due to currency, there was excessive volatility in the market. Gold MCX October opened at Rs. 28300 on 1/8/2013. It made a high of Rs. 35074 on 28/8/2013, with a remarkable lead of Rs. 6800, which is believed to have happened first time. On 26/8/2013, it made a low of Rs. 24830. Gold is trading Rs 2000 below the high it recorded in the month of August. Gold MCX is still trading at its all time high. If we talk about its performance for last two months, Gold MCX has jumped nearly Rs. 10200 from its low. This was a never seen before kind of stuff.

EXPECTED SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL (COMEX)

Gold COMEX/DGCX ($) S1 1358 S2 1272 S3 1179.50 S4 1038 R1 1433.58 R2 1487 R3 1526 R4 1576

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations our opinion is, selling Gold in the ranges of 14151425 targeting $1360/$1340 and stop loss above $1450 might be appropriate.

EXPECTED SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL (MCX)

Gold (Oct 2013) MCX S1 30400 S2 28780 S3 26570 S4 24900 R1 33185 R2 35110 R3 37200 R4 39500

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations our opinion is, selling Gold in the ranges of 3430034500 targeting 31500/30200 and stop loss above 35110 might be appropriate.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

MCX Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart