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January 13, 2012

Hotel Leela Venture Ltd.

CMP Rs. 32
Key Share Data
Face Value (Rs.) Equity Capital (Rs. crs) Market. Capitalization (Rs. crs) 52-wk High / Low (Rs. ) Average quarterly Volume BSE code NSE code Reuters code Bloomberg code 2.0 77.6 1221.6 49 / 28 59721 500193 HOTELEELA HTLE LELA

Target Rs. 39

Initiating Coverage- Buy

Company Profile
Hotel Leela Venture Limited operates hotels and resorts in India. The companys portfolio comprises of five star deluxe hotels primarily in Mumbai, Bangalore, Goa, Delhi and Udaipur with a current capacity of 1275 rooms and also manages one hotel at Gurgaon with a capacity of 412 rooms. Companys main focus is on the high end premium market catering to discerning business travelers and tourists.

Shareholding Pattern

30th September 2011

Investment Rationale
Adopting asset light strategy Hotel leela has five fully owned properties in key cities Bangalore, Goa, Mumbai, Udaipur and New Delhi and one property at Gurgaon is under O&M contract. Going forward company is focusing towards management contract or joint venture agreements with property owners which will reduce the initial expenditure towards acquisition and development of properties.

Public & others, 35.3%

Foreign, 1.8%

Institutions, 6.5%

Promoter, 56.5%

Delhi and Chennai openings are key growth drivers


FY13E 868.5 44% 277.5 12.4 -94% 0.3 2.6

Financials (Consolidated) Net Sales Sales Gr EBIDTA PAT PAT Gr EPS (Rs.) CEPS (Rs)
FY10 449.2 -1% 128.6 45.0 -69% 1.2 3.0 FY11 525.8 17% 158.0 38.9 -14% 1.0 2.8

(Rs. Crore)
FY12E 604.2 15% 184.6 222.4 472% 5.7 8.0

In FY12 Hotel Leela had started operation of its Delhi property with a capacity of 260 rooms. Company is expecting ARR of over Rs. 20000 from its Delhi hotel. Companys Chennai hotel with 329 guest rooms and suites is expected to become operational in FY13. In coming years, Delhi and Chennai will contribute major revenue to the topline. Improving industry dynamics to boost HLVLs performance

Key Financial Ratios Div. yield P/E P/BV P/Cash EPS MCap/Sales EV/EBIDTA ROCE ROE EBITDM(%) NPM (%) Debt-Equity
FY10 0.6% 26.8 0.6 10.7 2.7 31.7 2% 2% 29% 10% 1.4 FY11 0.5% 31.9 0.6 11.6 2.4 31.6 2% 2% 30% 7% 1.8 FY12E 0.3% 5.6 0.5 4.0 2.1 23.3 2% 10% 31% 37% 1.8 FY13E 0.3% 100.4 0.6 12.3 1.4 15.7 4% 1% 32% 1% 1.4

Presently, total demand for branded hotels in India is about 2,00,000 rooms whereas supply is only about 1,20,000 rooms, therefore there is a huge gap to be filled in. In FY11 occupancy levels of the overall industry grew by 1.7%. Hotel Leela with its strong presence in major cities is well poised to benefit from of growing demand. Occupancies and ARR for its all hotel properties are increasing rapidly after the recovery, which will positively reflect in topline of the company. Debt reduction through hiving off the assets Hotel Leela has recently announced the sale of its Kovalam property for a total cash consideration of Rs. 500 crore. Company will continue to manage this hotel through a long term management contract. This initiative has been taken to ease the companys total debt. Valuation At current market price of Rs. 32/-, Hotel Leela is trading at EV/EBITDA of 23.3x and 15.7x of FY12E and FY13E EBITDA, respectively. We have valued the stock at 15x its FY13E EV/EBITDA (which is inline with its historical average). We hereby initiate coverage on HLVL Ltd. and recommend buy rating with a target price of Rs. 39/- (22% upside) in 12 months. www.skpmoneywise.com Page 1 of 10

I year Performance comparison HLVL v/s BSE Midcap


0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4

Hotel Leela

BSEMIDCAP

Analyst: Kamna Jain


Tel No.: +91 22 2281 9012, Mobile - +91 9892526784 Email: kamna.jain@skpmoneywise.com

SKP Securities Ltd

Hotel Leela Venture Ltd.

Industry Overview
Hospitality at a glance Travel and Tourism as a percentage of total GDP and Employment
20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 19.7 17.1 15.8 13.8 14.3 11.5 9.2 8.0 9.1 8.1 8.6 8.2 7.5 4.5
GDP Emplo yment

India's Travel & Tourism (T&T) Industry is expected to contribute 4.5% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2011 (INR 3680.4 bn), rising to INR 8523.1 bn (4.9%) by 2021. Travel & Tourism visitor exports are expected to generate INR 678.6 bn (3.8% of total exports) in 2011, growing to INR 1344.7 bn (2.1%) in 2021. India T&T economy employment is estimated at 37,655,000 jobs in 2011, 7.5% of total employment. By 2021, this should total 47,480,000 jobs, 8.1% of total employment. Travel & Tourism investment is estimated at INR 1233.0 bn , 4.7% of total investment in 2011. In 2021, it is expected to reach INR 2827.5 bn, 4.8% of total investment.

Percentage

12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

Cambodia Malaysia Thailand VietnamIndonesia China

India

Source: WTTC & SKP Research

Foreign Tourist Arrivals and Foreign Exchange Earnings for last 10 years Foreign tourists arrivals to India have been growing at a CAGR of 6% over 2006-2010. Foreign Tourist Arrival in India during 2010 were 5.58 mn as compared to the FTAs of 5.17 mn during 2009, showing a growth of 8.1%. Domestic tourism experienced substantial increase during the last few years owing to an increase in income and the emergence of dynamic urban middle class with more income to spend on tourism. Domestic tourists during the year 2011 are estimated to be 740 million, showed a growth of 11% as compared to 2010. Tourism is an important arena of Indian economy with its substantial contribution to the foreign exchange. The high growth in FTA (Foreign tourist arrivals) resulted in the economy earning a whopping Rs 64889 crore, or US$ 14.19 billion in 2010 as compared to Rs. 27944 crore in 2004.
6000 1 6000

Foriegn tourists arrivals ('000 nos)

5000 4000 3000 2000 1 000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201 0

1 2000 1 0000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0

Foreign Tourist arrivals

Forex earnings

Source: Ministry of tourism and SKP Research

SKP Securities Ltd

www.skpmoneywise.com

Forex earnings (mn US $)

1 4000

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Hotel Leela Venture Ltd.


Occupancies and ARR in major cities
80 70 63 61 62 53 50 40 30 20 10 0 M umbai Pune Delhi Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata Goa 49 55 68 67 62 63 56 53

2010

2009
68

12000
70 66 61

2010

2009

Occupancies in percentage

60

10000
ARR (Rs.)

8000

6000

4000
M umbai Pune Delhi Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata Goa

Source: HVS and SKP Research

Hotel Supply
100000 89449 80000 62518

No. of rooms

60000

India, in recent years, started observing the introduction of quality budget and mid market hotels. Year 2009-10 witnessed highest number of hotel openings, with an addition of 14081 branded rooms to the existing supply. Currently India has approx. 62500 branded/ quality rooms which are actually lower than that for most major cities across the globe. Therefore, even with the addition of 89500 quality/branded rooms, there is a huge potential for investors.

40000 43% icrease in 5 years 20000

0 2009-10 2014-15

Source: HVS and SKP

Research

Key trigger According to WTTC, India is emerging as the third fastest growing tourist market in the world and the shortage of room inventory across Indian cities as against the demand expected in next few years, continues to justify the huge potential opportunity for the high growth of hospitality industry in India. In order to solve the liquidity crunch being faced by the hotel industry for setting up new hotel projects, the finance ministry has allowed hotels to avail of ECB up to US$ 100 million. Government Initiatives: Incredible India, the highly successful promotional campaign by the government of India, has worked wonders for the domestic tourism industry. Concerns for the Hospitality sector Weak global markets Growing competition Poor industrial growth in recent months Rising Inflation

SKP Securities Ltd

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Page 3 of 10

Hotel Leela Venture Ltd.

Company Overview
Hotel Leela Venture Ltd (HLVL), Hotel Leela Venture Limited operates hotels and resorts in India. The companys portfolio comprises of five star deluxe hotels primarily in Mumbai, Bangalore, Goa, Delhi and Udaipur with a current capacity of 1275 rooms and also manages one hotel at Gurgaon with a capacity of 412 rooms. Companys main focus is on the high end premium market catering to discerning business travelers and tourists. With rapid growth of room demand in premium segment, HLVL is expanding its operation by developing additional luxury hotels in Chennai, Agra, Jaipur and Ashtamudi, Kerala. The group has marketing alliances with Germany-based, US-based Preferred Hotel Group and is a member of Global Hotel Alliance based in Switzerland. Hotel The Leela The Leela The Leela Palace The Leela Palace The Leela Kempinski The Leela Palace Total
Source: Company & SKP Research

Location Mumbai Goa Bangalore Udaipur Gurgaon New Delhi

No. of rooms 392 186 357 80 412 260 1687

Owned/managed Owned Owned Owned Owned Management Owned

RRe Revenue Mix (Geographical)


HLVLs major source of revenue comes from The Leela Palace Kempinski, Bangalore. Currently company is aggressively planning to focus on other key cities to de-risk its business model. In year 2011 where Bangalore hotel contributed around 36% to total revenue where as in year 2012 it is expected to contribute around 32%. Going forward with addition of two major properties at New Delhi and Chennai and entry into other cities will reduce the dependency on Bangalore property.

FY11 Kovalam 13% Udaipur 5% Bangalore 36%

New Delhi, 16% Udaipur, 6%

FY12E

Bangalore, 32%

Kovalam, 4%

Goa 16%

Goa, 12%
Mumbai 30%

Mumbai, 30%

Source: Company & SKP Research

SKP Securities Ltd

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Page 4 of 10

Hotel Leela Venture Ltd.

Investment Arguments
Adopting asset light strategy
Hotel leela has five fully owned properties in key cities Bangalore, Goa, Mumbai, Udaipur and New Delhi and one property at Gurgaon is under O&M contract. Going forward company is focusing towards management contract or joint venture agreements with property owners which will reduce the initial expenditure towards acquisition and development of properties. This will help company to control its cost structure.

Various marketing alliance


Hotel Leela Venture Ltd has a marketing alliance with Kempinski which is the oldest luxury hotel group in Europe, its portfolio consist of 65 hotels worldwide. Company enjoys operational, sales and marketing support worldwide with Kempinski through their Global Distribution Systems. Hotel Leela also has marketing alliance with US based Preferred Hotel Group. This alliance benefits the company with co-branding resulting in greater recognition of the companys brand in the USA as premium and luxury hotels. It helps company to get more international business and to enhance its competitive positioning in the market.

Delhi and Chennai openings are key growth drivers


HLVL continues to focus on high-end premium market catering to business travelers and tourists and to be the market leaders in terms of RevPAR. In FY12 Hotel Leela had commenced its Delhi property with a capacity of 260 rooms. Company is expecting ARR of over Rs. 20000 from its Delhi hotel. Companys Chennai hotel with 329 guest rooms and suites facing the Bay of Bengal is expected to become operational in FY13. With the addition of Chennai property and further expansion at Goa property, Hotel Leela is expected to add 349 rooms to its existing portfolio. In coming years, Delhi and Chennai properties will contribute major revenue to the topline. Phased addition of new inventory

2500 2000 1609 1500 1000 500 0 FY11 New Delhi (260 rooms) 1869

2218 2036

Hiving off a facility at Kovalam (182 rooms )

Chennai + Goa expansion (349 rooms)

Total rooms post expansion

Source: Company & SKP Research

SKP Securities Ltd

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Page 5 of 10

Hotel Leela Venture Ltd. Improving industry dynamics to boost HLVLs performance
Presently, total demand for branded hotels in India is about 2,00,000 rooms whereas supply is only about 1,20,000 rooms, therefore there is a huge gap to be filled in. In FY11 occupancy levels of the overall industry grew by 1.7%., despite an increase of nearly 15% in supply during this period. The Indian hospitality industry is now on the path of recovery and the domestic traveler has spearheaded its growth. In the recent past, there has been an upsurge of domestic leisure travelers owing to their rising spending power. In FY11 domestic traffic reached to 740 mn, showed a growth of 11% as compared to last year. Foreign tourist arrivals have more than doubled during the period 2000 to 2010 and reached at 5.5 mn mark. According to WTTC estimates, foreign tourist arrivals are expected to register 8.2% CAGR over 2010-2019E. We believe, Indian tourism industry has bottomed out and growth in FTA is continued to strengthen with the improvement in global economic situation and the increased global confidence in the business development in India. Sensible cost-control measures and initiatives like the Visit India campaign have helped the hotel industry. Hotel Leela with its strong presence in major cities is well poised to take the benefit of growing demand. Occupancies and Average room rates for the hotel properties in Bangalore, Goa , Kovalam and Udaipur are increasing rapidly after the recovery. These uptrend in occupancy and ARR will directly reflect in topline of the company.

Occupancy level of Hotel Leela at major cities

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mumbai Bangalore FY10 FY11 Goa FY12E Udaipur

Source: Company & SKP Research

Debt reduction through hiving off the assets


Hotel Leela has recently announced the sale of its 182 room 5-star Kovalam property for a total cash consideration of Rs. 500 crore. Company will continue to manage this hotel under The Leela brand name through a long term management contract. This initiative has taken to ease companys total debt. HLVL is planning to use its excess land for high end residential or commercial use. This will improve the cash flow position of the company. These fund raising efforts through asset sale or any other methods will help company to reduce its total debt.

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Page 6 of 10

Hotel Leela Venture Ltd.

Key Concerns
Economy slowdown: Tourism is directly linked with the economic growth of a country. As FY2008-09 was an unforgettable for the Indian tourism industry with the global economic crises. Terror attacks and security concern: Terrorist attacks and other acts of violence may cause a drop in the number of arrivals into the country. 26/11 attack in Mumbai has deteriorated the foreign tourist arrival in India. Delay in execution: Delay in execution of Chennai property of Hotel Leela would impact the future earning potential of the company. Huge Debt: Hotel Leelas debt to equity reached to 1.8 x in FY11 as compared to 1.4x in FY10. This surge was primarily due to capex incurred for the Delhi and Chennai property. Company is planning to sell its few assets to improve its debt equity ratio.

Valuations & Outlook


Hospitality Industry is on the path of recovery with rapid growth in foreign tourist arrivals as well as increase in domestic travelers. Occupancy levels and ARR are also indicating an upward trend with increase in demand of branded hotels. HLVL is well poised to take advantage of this growth with its strong presence in key cities like Bangalore, Mumbai, Goa, Gurgaon, Udaipur and New Delhi. By FY13E total room capacity of Hotel Leela is expected to reach to 2036 rooms with the addition of Chennai property and further expansion at Goa property. We expect Hotel Leela to improve its performance for FY12E and FY13E. We expect HLVLs revenue to grow at a CAGR of 28.5% over FY11-FY13E. At current market price of Rs. 32/-, Hotel Leela is trading at EV/EBITDA of 23.3x and 15.7x of FY12E and FY13E EBITDA, respectively. We have valued the stock at 15x its FY13E EV/EBITDA (which is inline with its historical average). We expect HLVLs EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 32.5% over FY11FY13E. We hereby initiate coverage on HLVL Ltd. and recommend buy rating with a target price of Rs. 39/- (22% upside) in 12 months.

SKP Securities Ltd

www.skpmoneywise.com

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Hotel Leela Venture Ltd.

Financial Outlook
Topline to grow at a CAGR of 28.5% over FY11-13E For FY11, HLVL registered a 17% rise in net sales to Rs. 525.8 crore backed by improved average room rates and occupancy level with upgrading in overall industry dynamics. Mumbai property reported strong OR of 72%, while Bangalore and Goa posted a decent OR of 69% and 71% respectively. Revival in industry, high demand for business and leisure hotel, continuous improvement in occupancy and ARR trend, further addition of Delhi property in FY12 and Chennai and Goa expansion by FY13E are likely to give boost to HLVLs top line in coming years. We expect revenue to grow at a CAGR of 28.5% over FY11-FY13E.

EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 32.5% over FY11-13E


400.0 30.0 30.6 32.0
EBITDA margin (%)

40.0

300.0
Rs. in crore

28.6

30.0

200.0

277.5 184.6

20.0

100.0

128.6

158.0

10.0

HLVL has witnessed an EBITDA margin of 30.0% in FY11, against an EBITDA margin of 28.6% in FY10, up by 140 basis points mainly due to improvement in ARR at all properties. . We expect EBITDA margin to improve to 32.0% by FY13E on account of better occupancy level, higher ARR and cost effectiveness.

0.0 FY10 FY11 EBITDA FY12E EBITDA Margin(%) FY13E

0.0

PAT margin to fall to 1.4% in FY13E


250.0 200.0
Rs. in crore

36.8

40.0

222.4

30.0
PAT margin(%)

150.0 20.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 FY10 FY11 Adj. Profit 10.0 45.0 7.4 1.4 38.9 12.4 FY12E FY13E PAT Margin (%) 0.0 10.0

However in spite of growth in revenue, we expect PAT margin to hit significantly on the back of higher depreciation and interest cost which was incurred due to set up of new properties in Delhi and Chennai. For FY12E Net profit is expected to surge mainly due to profit on sale of Kovalam Hotel. We expect net profit margin to trim down to1.4% in FY13E. HLVL is planning to cut its debt through various asset monetization programs which will help to reduce its interest burden.

Source: SKP Research

SKP Securities Ltd

www.skpmoneywise.com

Page 8 of 10

Hotel Leela Venture Ltd. Consolidated Financials for FY March (Rs. in Crore)
Income Statement
Financial Year
Net Sales Growth (%) Operating profit Growth (%) Depreciation EBIT Interest Other Income PBT Tax PAT Growth (%) Less : Minority interest Adjusted PAT O/S shares EPS (Rs.)

Balance Sheet
FY10
449.2 -1.1% 128.6 -18.8% 68.3 60.3 24.5 28.9 64.7 19.6 45.0 -69.1% 0.0 45.0 37.8 1.2

FY11
525.8 17.1% 158.0 22.8% 68.4 89.5 57.6 25.7 57.6 18.7 38.9 -13.7% 0.0 38.9 38.8 1.0

FY12E
604.2 14.9% 184.6 16.8% 88.3 96.3 250.0 428.3 274.6 52.2 222.4 472.3% 0.0 222.4 38.8 5.7

FY13E
868.5 43.7% 277.5 50.3% 88.6 188.9 200.0 29.6 18.5 6.1 12.4 -94.4% 0.0 12.4 38.8 0.3

Year End March


Equity capital Reserves & Surplus Shareholder's Fund Total debt Deferred tax liability Minority interest Sources of funds Net Block Investments Total Current Assets Inventories Debtors Cash & Bank Balance Loans & Advances Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Misc. Expenses Uses of funds

FY10
75.6 1978.5 2054.0 2878.7 132.7 0.0 5065.4 4944.3 0.1 394.1 43.4 37.9 14.4 298.4 273.1 121.0 0.0 5065.4

FY11
77.6 2025.2 2102.7 3803.1 148.0 0.0 6053.8 5786.1 0.0 542.2 54.4 49.3 57.2 381.4 274.5 267.7 0.0 6053.8

FY12E
77.6 2243.0 2320.6 4200.8 148.0 0.0 6669.3 5278.4 0.0 1706.3 62.5 56.6 1149.0 438.2 315.4 1390.9 0.0 6669.3

FY13E
77.6 2148.1 2225.6 3130.3 148.0 0.0 5503.9 5208.6 0.0 766.4 85.3 74.9 20.4 585.8 471.1 295.3 0.0 5503.9

Ratios Cash Flow Statement


Year End March
Valuation Ratios Price Earning (P/E) Price / Book Value Price / Cash EPS EV / EBIDTA Market Cap / Sales Earning Ratios OPM (%) NPM (%) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) DPR Balance Sheet Ratios Debt-Equity Current Ratio Debtors Days Inventory Days FA/Turnover 1.4 1.4 27.8 34.2 0.1 1.8 2.0 29.9 33.5 0.1 1.8 5.4 31.6 34.8 0.1 1.4 1.6 27.3 30.6 0.2 28.6% 10.0% 2.2% 1.8% 16.8% 30.0% 7.4% 1.8% 1.9% 15.0% 30.6% 36.8% 9.6% 1.9% 1.7% 32.0% 1.4% 0.6% 4.0% 31.4% 26.8 0.6 10.7 31.7 2.7 31.9 0.6 11.6 31.6 2.4 5.6 0.5 4.0 23.3 2.1 100.4 0.6 12.3 15.7 1.4

FY10

FY11

FY12E

FY13E

Cash Flow statement


Year End March
Profit before tax Add: Depreciation, Int. & other expenses Net changes in working capital Direct taxes paid Cash Flow from Operating activities Cash flow from investing activities Cash Flow from Financing activities Cash Flow during the year Opening Cash Cash & cash equivalent

FY10
64.7 61.6 -73.9 -19.3 33.2 -547.2 496.8 -17.2 31.6 14.5

FY11
57.6 106.9 -81.2 -14.3 69.0 -875.6 849.3 42.7 14.5 57.2

FY12E
274.6 338.2 -31.4 -52.2 529.3 419.4 143.1 1091.8 57.2 1149.0

FY13E
18.5 288.6 -33.0 -6.1 268.0 -18.7 -1377.8 -1128.6 1149.0 20.4

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Hotel Leela Venture Ltd.

The above analysis and data are based on last available prices and not official closing rates. Thomson First Call & Investext Myiris, Moneycontrol, Ticker plant and ISI Securities .

SKP Research is also available on Bloomberg,

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