ATR consulting

Assess Transform Reach

VOTING INTENTIONS
2014 Presidential Elections

Sample and methodology

ATR consulting randomly called 1306 people across the country and asked the following question to each respondent: Who do you think is the best candidate, among all candidates for the Presidency?. People could either select one of the 27 candidates who registered or respond I do not know or Nobody is a good candidate. The survey took place from 8 to 12 October 2013, only a few days after the IEC had registered all candidates, on 6 October 2013.
Number of respondents 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Men Women Rural Men Women Urban Men Women Men Women

Less than 30 years old

30 years old or above

Figure 1: Number of respondents per category

Provinces of origin: People from 34 provinces responded The confidence level is 95%. The confidence interval for each category is presented in the below chart:
Overall sample Men Women Rural population Urban population People who are less than 30 years old People 30 years old or above 2.66 3.46 4.14 4.81 3.19 3.5 4.08

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In order to ensure that the overall sample fully represent the Afghan population, ATR consulting weighted the results. First we weighted the results of men and women so womens responses could represent 50% of the overall results. Second, ATR consulting took into consideration two scenarios for weighting the rural and urban results: 1. Scenario 1: Representation of the Afghan population according to the latest data from the Central Statistics Office and the CIA World Factbook, with a ratio of 76.4% and 23.6% respectively for rural and urban population. 2. Scenario 2: This scenario works on the assumption that rural people will have relatively less access to voting (because of insecurity and / or remoteness) than urban people. It presents a possible electorate that would be constituted of 50% urban people and 50% rural people.

Findings
Context The survey was conducted less than 48 hours after candidates had registered at the IEC. Few respondents new who were the Presidential Candidates as the information had not yet reached people all over the country. Results should be read through this lens and only represent an initial reaction of the Afghan population before information has been sufficiently spread.

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Kabul

Only 8 candidates are selected by more than 0.5% of respondents as the best candidate. 38.1% of respondents (36.4% according to scenario 2) are still undecided (responded: I do not know). Rural people and women are less likely to have identified a candidate they like (respectively 39.6% and 44.8%)

60% 40% 20% 0% men women Rural men women

Central Northern Western Southern Eastern region region region region region

Urban

Figure 3: Profile of undecided voters country wide

Figure 2: Share of undecided people per region (see below for description of regions)

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12.1% of respondents (12.6% according to scenario 2) believe that nobody is a good candidate.
People who do not know People who believe nobody is a good candidate People having selected one of the 27 candidates

50%

38% 12%

Figure 4: Share of respondents who have selected a candidate as their favourite and the ones who did not select any

Dr.Abdullah Abdullah is selected as a favourite candidates by the highest proportion of respondents (21% according to the first scenario and 22.3% according to the second scenario). He is supported by close to 43% of the people who have a favourite candidate. Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai comes second with 13.6% of supporters (or 14.9% according to the second scenario).

Profile of the supporters of the seven candidates with the highest scores 1. Dr. Abdullah Abdullah: Abdullah, who was second in the last elections, enjoys support from the urban population and from women. He also tends to have more support from the youth than from people who are over 30 years old.

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

30% 20% 10% 0% Men Women Rural Men Women Urban Less than 30 30 or above

2. Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai: Ahmadzais main constituency is among urban men (who are usually more educated than other groups). His alliance with Dostum seems to be effective as he makes a high score in the northern provinces (Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Baghlan, Sar-iPul, Samangan, Balkh, Jawzjan and Faryab) where most of the Uzbek population lives. Indeed he gathers as many as 20.4% supporters in this region (28.2% for Abdullah whose stronghold is the northern region). 14 October 2013 3|Page

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30% 20% 10% 0% Men Women Rural Men Women Urban

30% 20% 10% 0% Less than 30 30 or above

3. Qayum Karzai: Qayum Karzai, while being the third candidate with the highest support scores low with women and the urban population.
15% 10% 5% 0% Men Women Men Women

10% 5% 0% Rural Urban

Less than 30 30 or above

4. Ustod Abdul Rab Abdul Sayyaf: Sayyaf receives very little support from women. Rural men constitute the biggest share of his supporters.
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Men Women Rural Men Women

Less than 30 30 or above

Urban

5. Gul Agha Sherzai

4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Men Women Rural Men Women

Urban

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6. Zalmai Rassul
3% 2% 1% 0%

Men

Women

Men

Women

Rural

Urban

7. Abdul Rahim Wardak

3% 2% 1% 0% Men Women Rural Men Women Urban

Candidates support per region Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Kabul province Central provinces, including Wardak, Logar, Parwan, Kapisa, Panjsher, Bamyan, Daikundi Northern provinces, including Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Baghlan, Samangan, Sar-i-Pul, Jawzjan, Balkh and Faryab Western provinces, including Herat, Badghis, Farah ands Ghor Southern provinces, including Nimroz, Helmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Zabul and Ghazni Eastern provinces, including Paktya, Paktika, Khost, Laghman, Nangarhar, Kunar and Nuristan

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Region 1: Kabul province

Qayum Karzai 3% Dr Abdullah 24% Dr. Ahmadzai 16% No good candidate 16% Ustod Sayyaf 3% Gul Agha Sherzai 0% Zalmai Rassul 1% Abdul Rahim Wardak 1%

Do not know 36%

Region 2: Central provinces

Dr. Ahmadzai Qayum Karzai 1% 9% Ustod Sayyaf 5% Gul Agha Sherzai 1% Zalmai Rassul 1% Abdul Rahim Wardak 1%

Dr Abdullah 30%

Do not know 39%

No good candidate 13%

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Region 3: Northern region

Dr Abdullah 26%

Dr. Ahmadzai 23%

Qayum Karzai Ustod Sayyaf 5%

Do not know 32%

2%

No good candidate 8%

Gul Agha Sherzai 2% Abdul Rahim Zalmai Wardak Rassul 1% 1%

Region 4: Western region

Dr. Ahmadzai 8% Dr Abdullah 27% Qayum Karzai 2% Ustod Sayyaf 7% Gul Agha Sherzai 1% Zalmai Rassul No good 1% candidate 14% Abdul Rahim Wardak 1%

Do not know 39%

Region 5: Southern region

Dr. Ahmadzai 5% Dr Abdullah 21% Qayum Karzai 15% Ustod Sayyaf 1% Gul Agha Sherzai 6% Zalmai Rassul 2% No good candidate 13% Abdul Rahim Wardak 2%

Do not know 35%

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Region 6: Eastern region

Ustod Sayyaf 2% Qayum Karzai 22% Dr. Ahmadzai 29%
No good candidate 9%

Gul Agha Sherzai 1% Zalmai Rassul 0% Abdul Rahim Wardak 2%

Dr Abdullah 7%

Do not know 28%

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Annex: Data
Raw Data
Number of respondents: 1306 398 Rural Nobody I don't know Dr Abdullah Abdullah Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai Qayum Karzai 166 12,7% 446 34,2% 298 22,82% 216 16,5% 65 4,98% 44 11,1% 150 37,7% 77 19,35% 55 13,8% 28 7,04% 908 Urban 122 13,4% 296 32,6% 221 24,34% 161 17,7% 37 4,07% 769 Men 92 12,0% 234 30,4% 157 20,42% 153 19,9% 46 5,98% 537 Women 74 13,8% 212 39,5% 141 26,26% 63 11,7% 19 3,54% 751 Less 30 85 11,3% 225 30,0% 197 26,23% 123 16,4% 45 5,99% 554 30 + 81 14,6% 220 39,7% 97 17,51% 93 16,8% 20 3,61% 247 Men 22 8,9% 78 31,6% 44 17,8% 44 17,8% 23 9,31% 151 Rural Women 22 14,6% 72 47,7% 33 21,9% 11 7,3% 5 3,31% 6,31% 12,5% 19,8% 39,6% 11,7% Average

Weighted Data
522 Men 70 13,4% 156 29,9% 113 21,6% 109 20,9% 23 4,41% 386 Urban Women 52 13,5% 140 36,3% 108 28,0% 52 13,5% 14 3,63% 4,02% 17,2% 24,8% 33,1% 13,4% Average Ratio 76,4% /23,6% 12,1% 38,1% 21,0% 13,6% 5,8% Ratio 50% / 50% 12,6% 36,4% 22,3% 14,9% 5,2%

Raw Data
Number of respondents 1306 398 Rural Dr Abdullah Abdullah Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai Qayum Karzai 298 22,82% 216 16,5% 65 4,98% 77 19,35% 55 13,8% 28 7,04% 908 Urban 221 24,34% 161 17,7% 37 4,07% 769 Men 157 20,42% 153 19,9% 46 5,98% 537 Women 141 26,26% 63 11,7% 19 3,54% 751 Less 30 197 26,23% 123 16,4% 45 5,99% 554 30 + 97 17,51% 93 16,8% 20 3,61% 247 Men 44 17,8% 44 17,8% 23 9,31% 151 Rural Women 33 21,9% 11 7,3% 5 3,31% 6,31% 12,5% 19,8% Average Men 113 21,6% 109 20,9% 23 4,41% 522

Weighted Data
386 Urban Women 108 28,0% 52 13,5% 14 3,63% 4,02% 17,2% 24,8% Average Ratio 76,4% /23,6% 21,0% 13,6% 5,8% Ratio 50% / 50% 22,3% 14,9% 5,2%

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Raw Data
Number of respondents 1306 398 Rural Abdul Rab Rassul Sayyaf Gul Agha Sherzai Zalmai Rassul Abdul Rahim Wardak Khadija Ghaznawi Hashmat Ghani Ahmadzai 42 3,22% 10 0,8% 14 1,07% 11 0,84% 7 0,54% 9 0,69% 18 4,52% 7 1,8% 3 0,75% 4 1,01% 2 0,50% 0 0,00% 908 Urban 24 2,64% 3 0,3% 11 1,21% 7 0,77% 5 0,55% 9 0,99% 769 Men 37 4,81% 9 1,2% 8 1,04% 10 1,30% 3 0,39% 7 0,91% 537 Women 5 0,93% 1 0,2% 6 1,12% 1 0,19% 4 0,74% 2 0,37% 751 Less 30 29 3,86% 8 1,1% 5 0,67% 7 0,93% 3 0,40% 6 0,80% 554 30 + 13 2,35% 2 0,4% 9 1,62% 4 0,72% 4 0,72% 3 0,54% 247 Men 17 6,88% 7 2,8% 2 0,81% 4 1,62% 0 0,00% 0 0,00% 151 Rural Women 1 0,66% 0 0,0% 1 0,66% 0 0,00% 2 1,32% 0 0,00%

Weighted Data
522 Average 3,77% 1,4% 0,74% 0,81% 0,66% Men 20 3,83% 2 0,4% 6 1,15% 6 1,15% 3 0,57% 7 0,00% 1,34% 386 Urban Women 4 1,04% 1 0,3% 5 1,30% 1 0,26% 2 0,52% 2 0,52% 0,93% 0,55% 0,70% 1,22% 0,3% 2,43% Average Ratio 76,4% /23,6% 3,5% 1,2% 0,9% 0,8% 0,6% 0,2% Ratio 50% / 50% 3,1% 0,9% 1,0% 0,8% 0,6% 0,5%

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Number of respondents

1306 Rural

398

908 Urban Men 3 0,33% 2 0,22% 0 0,00% 2 0,22% 0 0,00% 2 0,22% 1 0,11% 0 0,00% 1 0,11% 0 0,00% 0 0,00% 1 0,11%

769

537 Women

751 Less 30 30 + 2 0,27% 2 0,27% 1 0,13% 2 0,27% 1 0,13% 2 0,27% 1 0,13% 0 0,00% 1 0,13% 1 0,13% 1 0,13% 1 0,13%

554

Qutbuddin Hilal Sayed Ishaq Gailani Abdul Hadi Dabeer Dr. Dawar Ahmed Nadim Del Agha Kohdamani Bismillah Sher Anwar ul Haq Ahadi Nadir Shah Ahmadzai Noor Rahman Liwal Hedayat Amin Arsala Sardar Mohammad Naeem Salman Ali Dostzada

4 0,3% 4 0,31% 2 0,15% 2 0,15% 2 0,15% 2 0,15% 1 0,08% 1 0,08% 1 0,08% 1 0,08% 1 0,08% 1 0,08%

1 0,25% 2 0,50% 2 0,50% 0 0,00% 2 0,50% 0 0,00% 0 0,00% 1 0,25% 0 0,00% 1 0,25% 1 0,25% 0 0,00%

3 0,39% 0 0,00% 2 0,26% 1 0,13% 1 0,13% 1 0,13% 1 0,13% 1 0,13% 1 0,13% 0 0,00% 1 0,13% 1 0,13%

1 0,19% 4 0,74% 0 0,00% 1 0,19% 1 0,19% 1 0,19% 0 0,00% 0 0,00% 0 0,00% 1 0,19% 0 0,00% 0 0,00%

2 0,36% 2 0,36% 1 0,18% 0 0,00% 1 0,18% 0 0,00% 0 0,00% 1 0,18% 0 0,00% 0 0,00% 0 0,00% 0 0,00%

Candidates whose name was not mentioned by respondents: Fazal Karim Najimi Sarwar Ahmadzai Azizullah Ludin Hamidullah Qaderi Daoud Sultanzoy Farooq Azam

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