THE GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPECTIVE

Jan Murray Deputy Secretary General, World Energy Council

Conference on: A Swedish Energy Strategy for Global Competitiveness Stockholm, 3 March 2005

Energy price drivers:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Rising demand Capacity & resource constraints Environmental costs Fossil fuel alternatives Energy conservation Demographics Economic growth

Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand
2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Capacity & resource constraints Environmental costs Fossil fuel alternatives Energy conservation Demographics Economic growth

Oil prices and Chinese Imports

Middle East Oil Exports by destination: 2002

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Asia

Europe

USA

Africa

Source: BP Yearbook

Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand

2. Capacity & resource constraints

3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Environmental costs Fossil fuel alternatives Energy conservation Demographics Economic growth

US OIL PRODUCTION 1900-2000

4

BILLIONS BARRELS PER YEAR

0 1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

NORTH AMERICA (US/CANADA/MEXICO) NATURAL GAS Annual productions vs. discoveries shifted by 20 years
35 Tcf/year 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1920
Jean Laherrre February 2003

raw production (wet gas) total dry production dry production less unconvent. mean discoveries 20-year shifted

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand 2. Capacity & resource constraints

3. Environmental costs
4. 5. 6. 7. Fossil fuel alternatives Energy conservation Demographics Economic growth

Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand 2. Capacity & resource constraints 3. Environmental costs

4. Fossil fuel alternatives

5. Energy conservation 6. Demographics 7. Economic growth

Energy price drivers:

1. 2. 3. 4. Rising demand Capacity & resource constraints Environmental costs Fossil fuel alternatives

5. Energy conservation
6. Demographics 7. Economic growth

WORLD ENERGY-RELATED SERVICES 1971-2000

3500,0 3000,0 Mtoe 2500,0 2000,0 1500,0 1000,0 500,0 0,0 10000 GDP PPP 20000 30000 40000

Stationary Uses

Mobility (oil only)

Electricity Output

Energy price drivers:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Rising demand Capacity & resource constraints Environmental costs Fossil fuel alternatives Energy conservation

6. Demographics
7. Economic growth

WORLD POPULATION - UN SCENARIOS

12
High fertility variant

BILLION PEOPLE

Medium fertility variant

Low fertility variant

0 1950

2000

2050

Energy price drivers:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Rising demand Capacity & resource constraints Environmental costs Fossil fuel alternatives Energy conservation Demographics

7. Economic growth

WORLD 1850-2000 TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS

12000

MTOE (O. Reich for 1850-1970, then AIE)

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000

GDP PPP (after Maddison prior to 1950 and corrected for China since 1978)

WORLD OFFICIAL GROWTH RATES

First oil shock 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Second twin oil shock Counter oil shock Kuwait invasion Price rise to 25 $/b China coal crisis