Mid Week Technicals of Index, Currency and Commodities

October 17, 2013 Nifty CMP 6046 Resistance I - 6110 OUTLOOK Bearish Resistance II - 6170

SPOT - 6046 Support I - 6030 Support II - 5950

Technical Indicators Trend Swing RSI Momentum 200 Day EMA Down Higher Top Higher Bottom Bearish Bearish 5775

Nifty is looking weak on the charts. Price has tested the upper resistance line three times and failed to break it. Our medium outlook remains bearish. Unless Nifty closes above 6170 this view is intact. Major wave X/B ended at 6142 and later wave a & wave b have completed now. In the above wave b is irregular (as it retraced 100% of wave a) and the full pattern is flat. Now wave c has begun towards 5715 5546 (corresponding to 100% and 138.2% projection levels of wave a&b)

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Weekly Technical Cover

October 17, 2013 USDINR

CMP 61.72 Resistance I 61.95

OUTLOOK Neutral Resistance II 62.30

SPOT 61.72 Support I 60.95 Support II 59.50

Technical Indicators Trend Swing RSI Momentum 200 Day EMA Neutral Higher Top Higher Bottom Neutral Neutral 58.89

USDINR pair shows mild weakness on the charts. The present downtrend could end anytime from now. The price has tested 50% retracement level of last rising leg and is consolidating near to the support. The pair has started moving in a falling wedge shape on daily chart. We may see trend reversal in forthcoming days. RSI has cooled off well and could provide room for price to move on the upside. On a medium term basis, swing direction still moves in Higher top Higher bottom formation on weekly chart till a lower top formation is confirmed. Any move above 61.95 would confirm the uptrend.

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Weekly Technical Cover

October 17, 2013 Gold in US$/ounce

CMP 1280.99 Resistance I - 1330

OUTLOOK Neutral Resistance II - 1400

SPOT 1280.99 Support I - 1250 Support II - 1230

Technical Indicators Trend Swing RSI Momentum 200 Day EMA Down Lower Top Lower Bottom Neutral Bullish 1424

Major wave a has completed and internals of wave b in progress. Gold could rise upto the channel line (~1400) over few weeks. Price has moved below 61.8% level of the latest rise, which is required in the case of flat pattern. Crucial support at 1250 is 75% retracement last minor rising leg. Till violation of 1250 Gold may start moving up any time from now.

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Weekly Technical Cover

October 17, 2013 Crude

CMP 102.29 Resistance I 102.7

OUTLOOK Bullish Resistance II - 110

SPOT 102.29 Support I 100.60 Support II 99.5

Technical Indicators Trend Swing RSI Momentum 200 Day EMA Up Higher Top Higher Bottom Neutral Neutral 99.66

Crude has almost done its corrective leg. Crude is in the wave 4 which could end soon. Price has retraced 50% of wave 3 and retraced 38.2% of entire leg. 200 Day EMA is placed at 99.66 which is strong longterm level. Unless violation of this level we expect Crude may once again move toward the highs. Once wave 4 ends then wave 5 could move up toward 110 113 levels. .

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Analyst: Gajendra Prabu (gajendra.prabu@hdfcsec.com) RETAIL RESEARCH Tel: (022) 3075 50031

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