Overview of Climate Change

Science and a Few Impacts

Relevant to International Aid
Amanda Staudt
Climate Scientist
National Wildlife Federation

September 6, 2007

http://www.nwf.org
 Greenhouse effect: a natural phenomenon
essential for warming the surface of the Earth
Natural greenhouse effect Enhanced greenhouse effect

Diagrams from: http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/faq/page5.html

 Temperature and CO2 levels have been in
lockstep for over 400,000 years
20 400 400
Ice core from Vostok, Antarctica
375 375
15
Temperature Anomaly (degrees F)

350 350
10
325 325
5
300 300

CO2 (ppm)

CO2 (ppm)
0 275 275

250 250
-5
225 225
-10
200 200
-15
175 175

-20 150 150

350000 250000 150000 -50000
50000 TODAY -50000
Years before present
 CO2 in 2100: Business-as-usual = 650 ppm
CO2 in 2100: Stabilization goal = 450 ppm

20 400 400
CO2 today = 383 ppm 375 375
15
Temperature Anomaly (degrees F)

350 350
10
325 325
5
300 300

CO2 (ppm)

CO2 (ppm)
0 275 275

250 250
-5
225 225
-10
200 200
-15
175 175

-20 150 150

350000 250000 150000 -50000
50000 TODAY -50000
 3

2.5
Temperature Anomaly (degrees F)

1.5

1 Observed global
temperatures
0.5

-0.5

-1
1875 1925 1975 2025 2075

Data from NASA Goddard Institute of Space Sciences

 6

5
Temperature Anomaly (degrees F)

1 Observed global
temperatures
Future temperatures
0 with some emissions
reductions
-1
1875 1925 1975 2025 2075

Projections from IPCC (2007) Working Group I Report

 9

8
Future temperatures
7
for “business-as-
Temperature Anomaly (degrees F)

6 usual” emissions

1 Observed global
temperatures Future temperatures
with some emissions
0 reductions

-1
1875 1925 1975 2025 2075

Projections from IPCC (2007) Working Group I Report

Relative Sea Level (cm)

Observed
sea level rise

Figure prepared by Robert A. Rohde

 65

55

45
Relative Sea Level (cm)

Observed
sea level rise
Future sea level rise
with some emissions
reductions

2100
Projections from IPCC (2007) Working Group I Report
 65

Future sea level rise for

55
“business-as-usual”
emissions
45
Relative Sea Level (cm)

Observed
sea level rise Future sea level rise
with some emissions
reductions

2100
Projections from IPCC (2007) Working Group I Report
 Precipitation Changes in 2100
Northern
Hemisphere
WINTER
Decreases in
most subtropical
land regions
Northern
Hemisphere
SUMMER

IPCC (2007) Working

Group I Report
 Regions most vulnerable to
global warming
• The Arctic: fast rate of warming.
• Africa, especially the sub-Saharan region:
current low adaptive capacity and multiple
stressors
• Small islands: sea-level rise and increased
storm surge.
• Asian megadeltas, such as the Ganges-
Brahmaputra and the Zhujiang: large
populations and high exposure to sea-level
rise, storm surge and river flooding.
IPCC (2007) Working Group II Report
 Africa
Food Availability Water Availability
Today 25% of population (about
200 million people) have
some water stress
2020’s 50% decline in crop yields 75 to 250 million at risk of
for some countries increased water stress

2050’s 350 to 600 million at risk of

increased water stress

2080’s 5 to 8% increase in
arid/semiarid land;
no more wheat production in
Africa

IPCC (2007) Working Group II Report

 Asia
Food Availability Water Availability
2020’s 2.5 to 10% decline in crop 120 million to 1.2 billion at
yields for some parts; risk of increased water
Additional 49 million at risk stress
of hunger
2050’s 5 to 30% decline in crop 185 to 981 million at risk of
yields Central and South increased water stress
Asia;
Up to 30% increase in crop
yields in East and Southeast
Asia;
Additional 132 million at risk
of hunger

IPCC (2007) Working Group II Report

 Where do we go from here?
• Some global warming impacts are avoidable:
¾ Reduce global warming pollution 80% by 2050.

• Some global warming impacts are unavoidable:

¾ Develop adaptation strategies.

• Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the

presence of other stresses (e.g., poverty, ecosystem
degradation):
¾ Continue addressing other stressors.

http://www.nwf.org