WORLD ACADEMIC JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & APPLIED SCIENCES-MARCH-SEPTEMBER 2013 EDITION

Journal of Tourism Management

JUNE 2013 VOL.1, No,4

Volatility of Tourism Movement in the Hong kong Inbound Market

Kaewta Muangasame (Corresponding author) Tourism and Hospitality Management Division Mahidol University International College 999 Phutthamonthon 4 Road, Salaya, Nakhonpathom Thailand 73170

Nate-tra Dhevabanchachai Tourism and Hospitality Management Division, Mahidol University International College 999 Phutthamonthon 4 Road, Salaya, Nakhonpathom Thailand 73170 Accepted 9 June 2013 Abstract Exploring trends of tourism demand from the past is essential in measuring the different tourism movement volatility which occurred either nature or man-made. This study analyzes the volatility of tourism demand by data mining tourist numbers arriving in Hong Kong from 1999 to 2010. Eight different markets will be examined, both short haul and long haul, to compare and contrast the characteristic tourist profile and the behavior and attitude changes of each market according to the volume of visitors that come to Hong Kong. There have been significant changes over the past 12 years in different countries with some positive and negative impacts from natural disasters, an economic crisis and mega-events. This paper will compare and contrast different markets and analyze the tourism demand with regards to volatility in relation to the profile characteristics, spending pattern behaviors with tourists satisfaction level. Keywords: volatility, tourism movement, Hong Kong, tourism demand, inbound market 1. Introduction Hong Kong was considered as a shopping paradise by most tourists, (Choi et al, 1999). As a result, there is a massive increase in the number of visitors every year; even with the negative aspects of a crowded, busy and stressful urban environment. In addition, the instability of negative and positive events such as SARS, economic crisis is also influenced the tourism demand. As a result, this study is analyzed the volatility of tourism demand by using tourist numbers arriving in Hong Kong from 1999 to 2010 for data analysis. Eight different markets will be examined, both short haul and long haul markets, to compare and contrast the characteristic tourist profile and the behavior and attitude changes of each market according to the volume of visitors that come to Hong Kong. There have been significant changes over the past 12 years with some positive and negative impacts from natural disasters, an economic crisis and mega-events. Different countries have experienced different impacting events. This paper will compare and contrast different markets and analyze the tourism demand with regards to volatility in relation to the profile characteristics, spending pattern behaviors and attitude with tourists satisfaction level. In this paper, the literature review will identify the impact of tourism demand in relation to volatility of Hong Kong tourism movement. Secondary data from the Hong Kong Tourism board visitor statistics between 1999 and 2010 will be analyzed in order to understand the trend line from eight markets reflecting the impact of tourism demand, tourist characteristic profiles in demographic changes and tourist satisfaction & spending pattern within Hong Kong. Limitations and suggestions for future research are addressed.
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2. Literature Review 2.1 Impact of tourism demand Many scholars have stated the varied impact from tourism demand. From literature reviews, potentially important factors can be examined, indicated as follows: Wang (2009), tourists are affected mostly by Safety and Health impacts which are the key to maintain demand in both international and domestic markets. It was shown that SARS, in the year 2003, was ranked as the number 1 impact on inbound tourist arrival numbers, followed by the earthquake in September, 1999 and by 9/11 in 2001. On the other hand, the world financial crisis has had less of an effect on arrival numbers when compared to those three events. In addition, Chu (2008; Huang&Min, 2002; Lim&McAleer, 2005; Okumus, Altinay, &Arasli, 2005; Pizam&Fleischer, 2002; Prideaux&Witt, 2000) stated that natural disaster impact(s) on tourism and they have determined that they do affect the tourism industry. Wang (2009) also added that tourist arrival numbers can fall dramatically in the immediate aftermath of an event, yet recover just 1-2 years. Income is also the most frequently used explanatory variable when investigating tourist demand studies, (Jensen, 1998 and Dritsakis, 2004). The research of Vanegas & Croes (2000) also supported that tourist income is an important factor influencing tourist visits. Lim & McAleer (2001) looked at macroeconomic factors such as price and exchange rates in relation to the effects of income. They also examined long term interaction of tourists from Hong Kong and Singapore to Taiwan. The change of international and domestic policies and plans such as a ban on, or a liberalization of, the tourism market and governmental efforts in environmental concerns could result in increasing the number of tourist arrivals, (Kim & Wong, 2006). Similarly, Hiemstra and Wong (2002) researched tourism arrival numbers before and after the transfer of sovereignty of Hong Kong to China as a dummy variable to predict tourist arrivals from six major countries to Hong Kong. Their study showed that the number of tourist arrivals increased more sharply after the transfer of sovereignty than before. Lastly, an increase of tourism demand could come from positive activities such as international events: world fairs, sporting events and special campaigns from destination marketing organizations. These mega-events could affect tourism demand during those periods, (Crouch 1994b; Qiu and Zhang (1995); Tan, McCahon, and Mliller 2002). However, the negative impacts on tourism demand such as natural disasters, terrorism and economic downturns have a greater influence than positive impacts as people tend to be more sensitive to negative messages, (Diamond and Campbell 1990). Tourism demand reacts sensitively to change of environments surrounding tourist flow depending upon characteristics of the news, (Mansfeld, 1999; Pizam 1999). Nevertheless, Frechtling ( 1996) stated that the more volatility there is in activity, the more difficult it is to discern patterns that can help us forecast futures. 2.2 Volatility in tourism movement Volatility in tourism is defined as the impact of shocks to the industry that lead to periods of relatively large upturns and downturns of activity, Volatility in tourism is also referred to tourism forecasting to predict the trend for tourism policy development. Furthermore, there have been very few applications of using volatility models in tourism fields, (Coshall, 2009), even though it has been very popular for empirical research in Finance and Economic metrics since early 1990. However, it can be criticized that the volatility model is not straightforward to understand. Thus, this study will focus on the key effects of inbound tourist demand volatility in Hong Kong from 1999 to 2010. In addition the trend line during those periods of the top eight countries as Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Singapore, USA, UK, Australia and Canada will be identified the stability of tourism demand according to tourists profile characteristics, tourist behavior-spending patterns and attitudes towards satisfaction. 2.3 Hong Kong inbound market background In macro perspectives, World tourism Organization (2011) reported that the International tourist arrivals in Asia and the Pacific reached a historic high of 204 million in 2010. These results confirm Asia as the worlds strongest growing region of the past two years. In addition out of North-East Asia, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea, China had the best performance. WTO (2011) also reviewed the tourism trends in 2010 and found that the most significant change among the top ten of international arrival was the growth of China overtaking both the United Kingdom and Italy within a few years. The economic boom in China after 2007 brought this country up to higher performance both in outbound market receipts to fourth position, with Hong Kong entering the top ten at number 9 from the 12th position. The Hong Kong Tourism Commission (2011) reported that the tourism performance of inbound market in 2010 is the first time Hong Kong surpassed a record-high of 36 million visitors from around the world, a remarkable increase of 21.8% over 2009. The improving global economy and travel
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sentiment have fueled this impressive performance. In addition, short haul markets increased; particularly arrivals from Taiwan by 7.7%. A favorable exchange rate and strong outbound numbers from Japan and South Korea also went up as well as an increase in arrivals from South and South-East Asia due to increased flight capacity. Furthermore, the long-haul markets have improved from global economic situation and rejuvenated business and vocation arrivals which resulted in a 10.5 % growth rate over 2009 to 4.7 million. In particular, the US remained the largest long haul market with a 9.5% increase. Emerging markets including India ( +44.8%), the middle East ( +20.7%) and also Russia ( +102.0%) also experienced a remarkable increase in arrival numbers, ( UNWTO.org, 2011). 3. Methodology Secondary data was used in this study. The data was collected mainly from the Hong Kong Tourism board visitor statistics between the years 1999 and 2010 for 8 countries, (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Singapore, USA, UK, Australia and Canada), based on top ranking inbound tourists excluding mainland China to find the variable between short haul and long haul travelers. In this paper, 8 different markets attracted to Hong Kong (both short haul and long haul) will be identified and how volatility affected the trend line from 1999 to 2010. Tourism demand and particular impacts are evaluated to enable more accurate future tourism forecasting of the number of inbound tourist arrivals. In addition, this study will analyze the tourism demand impact from the data including comparing and contrasting profile characteristics, behavior towards spending patterns and attitudes with satisfaction level. 4. Results From the result, the inbound market to Hong Kong was shown comparative top market in the trend line (Figure1) between 1999 and 2010. Long-haul inbound tourists, the top 4 including USA, UK, Australia and Canada were analyzed as well as the top short-haul inbound market from Taiwan, Japan, Korea and Singapore.

Figure 1: Comparing the trend line of inbound markets in Hong Kong (1999-2010). 4.1 Long-haul inbound tourists Top 4 (USA, UK, Australia and Canada) To analyze the situation of the US inbound tourist, it can be evaluated starting from 1999, a year of great volatility by natural disaster- serious earthquakes around the world with more than 20,000 people dead, causing economic downturns and homelessness as can be seen in figure 2. However, this market recovered very quickly as shown by the stability of tourist number arrivals between 2000 and 2002. After the September 11, 2002 outbreak, the shock of the news affected people in the US and around the world. As a result, the US inbound market steadily dropped again but less than in 1999. The SARS outbreak lowered all the inbound markets in 2003 including the US market. However, it increased rapidly in 2004 and continued to be stable until 2006 before reaching its highest point in 2007 of the 12
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years of the survey. The growth of economic in China and India affected the unstable situation to US inbound market during 2008 -9 recession, resulting the increasing unemployment and lowest disposable income of US people during crisis, Lapavitsas ( 2009).

Figure 2: Big earthquakes of 1999 source: the millinium group (http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/planetary/1999earthquakes.html) It can be shown that in last 12 years the US inbound market was quite stable, only in 1999 and 2003 which were rapidly volatized. The trend line shows only slight growth of this market. Focusing on tourist profile characteristics comparing the high-low level of tourist arrivals from 1999-2010, US tourists mainly came for business rather than leisure; therefore, this market depends upon the economic & investment situation. The UK market is not striking when compared to other long haul markets. As seen in the trend line from 1999-2010 that this market slightly increased, even though in 1999 was a serious earthquake but it did not directly influence the UK market compared to the US market. The main volatility was in 2003 with the SARS outbreak from the destination point. In 2007 the UK numbers reached their peak as well as with the US and started to drop again due to the economic recession in 2008 and continued until 2010, unlike other long haul markets in this paper, which slightly increased in 2010. In the last 12 years the UK inbound market was quite stable, only in 1999 and 2003, which was slightly volatile. To sum up, the trend line shows only slight growth of this market and then begins to decline after 2007. In 2010 World Tourism Organization reported that the United Kingdom was the only market among the ten to record a drop in expenditure (-2%) due to the weak economy and a weakening of the pound sterling. The Australian market trend line rapidly grew after 2004 as compared to the UK market. There were two points of volatility in 2003 with the SARS outbreak and in 2009, which was a result of a recession and joblessness in the Australian economy. It was being overwhelmed by the global financial crisis and external growth shocks, the same as other markets, ( BBC.co.uk, 2009). However, the recession was short-lived and therefore had less of an impact on the inbound market as shown. The peak period of tourist arrivals was in 2007 and 2008 during the China economic growth. The Canadian market trend line showed rapid growth after 2004 as compared to the UK market. There were two points of volatility in 2003 with the SARS outbreak and in 2008-09, which was affected by a recession. However, the Canadian recession wasnt as brutal; it was the only G7 nation to have recouped its losses from the 2008-2009 recession, both GDP and employment remain below pre-recession levels in the other six countries, (Grant, 2011). As a result, this market has arisen again in 2009 and will continue to grow if there are no unforeseen events. As WTO (2011) reported the greatest amount of movement of top ten tourism spenders came from Canada, which moved up two positions to number six. In this case, the appreciation of their respective currencies has clearly helped. 4.2 Short haul inbound tourists in Hong Kong (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Singapore) The Taiwan market was in a mature stage, which has continually declined in the last 12 years. Their numbers dropped three times during these periods shown in the numbers from 1999, 2003 and 2009 from the negative events following the earthquake, SARS and the recession. It was similar to others. Interestingly, the trend line is linear which was slightly tired. It may need to consider the new product for this position. The peak was in 2007, a result of the Chinese economic boom. Japan is well known as a sensitive market. As it can be seen in the trend line, the year 2003 was
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adversely affected by the SARS outbreak, which was linked to health and security concern as the main determinant factors. There were only two markets in this survey that sharply dropped during the SARS outbreak; the US and Japan. The Korean market was unique in that it has been steadily growing since 2004 to 2007 and then sharply dropped in 2009 after the previous drop from SARS in 2003. Political issues and a weakened exchange rate were the main factors in determining Korean traveling abroad, (Chang & McAleer, 2009). All inbound markets were affected by the recession, but especially the Korean market. As Oh (2005) suggested, important variables such as exchange rates play a critical role in tourism demand. Model specifications could be taken into account and a multivariate approach of multivariate co-integration could be adopted to improve the tourism model performance. The Singaporean market trend line rapidly grew after 2004 as compared to the Japanese and Taiwanese market. The only point of volatility was in 2003 with the SARS outbreak. Interestingly, during the recession of 2009, all of the top inbound markets were volatilized except Singapore. There are some particular circumstances which caused Singapore to remain in the same position and slightly increase in 2010. 5. Discussion 5.1 Tourism demand impact Song et al (2009), proposed that the demand of tourism is dependent upon the economic situation and reflects visitor income expenditures and suggested that the income levels of source markets are the main drivers of tourism demand for Hong Kong in the long run, especially in long haul markets: (Australia, US, UK ). For growing economies, (China and Korea), is highly elastic income from the top markets in finding of this study. As mentioned above, the trend lines of those top markets were illustrated related to Songs et al research. However, there are various key factors that determine tourism demand from external factors, which may have an impact on tourism demand by affecting the ability to travel (freedom, time, money, fitness) and motivation. On the other hand, consumer behavior is also driven by internal factors of demand such as motivation and abilities. Therefore, the impact of a change of a single external factor is limited, (Lohmann. 2004). To understand the volatility of tourism movement both of these factors could be combined with a focus on origin market and its destination. This study emphasis is on the key factors from both internal and external factors which are the main influences on tourism demand such as Safety and Health. As shown during the12 years of this survey, the trend line dramatically dropped in every country from the earthquake of 1999 and SARS in 2003. The natural disaster in 1999 showed a decrease in numbers, thereby reflecting the effect of tourism demand in this regard. However, Wang (2009) stated that the negative effects this event could recover in just 1-2 years. It can be argued that it depends on the origin market how healthy economics as well as demographic changes in terms of tourist behavior. In addition, Pine & Mckercher (2004) reviewed that the SARS situation the visitors declined almost 80 percent from previous years, resulting airline passenger 80%, hotel occupancies around 90 percent, which the massive cost reduction methods had been used after post-recovery stage. On the other hand, positive activities such as international events can influence tourism demand. Getz (2008), emphasized that a mega-event can increase the number of tourists in the year of the event by roughly 8% above the predicted amount. In the year 2010, the World Expo in Shanghai contributed approximately US $1,456 million into the Chinese economy. This study shows a increase in the number of visitors during the event period, which assumed that the World Expo could be one of the factors in driving tourism demand. In addition, 2010 was the first time that the number of arrivals surpassed the 30 million mark as a result of an improved global economy and tourism business has fueled this impressive performance in Hong Kong, ( Hong Kong tourism commission, 2011). 5.2 Tourist Characteristic profiles in demographic changes It is interesting to look at the tourist characteristic profile changes in relation to the different emerging patterns. As was shown in Table 1, tourist characteristics combined the visitors educational background, average age, gender, types of traveling and whether or not they had had a prior visit. These factors can be examined to find inbound tourist behavior changes during last 12 years. Travel behavior is influenced by many factors in terms of a travelers socio-demographic background such as age, income, length of stay and trip expenditures, (Sheldon, 1986; Sheldon & Mak, 1987; Thompson & Pearce, 1980, Hsieh et al, 1993 & 1994; Lang, 1995). Interestingly, The travelers who prefer Asia are food lovers, work oriented, less concerned about their health and less security conscious, are more likely to be risk taker and spend on luxuries, such as eating out and shopping for stylish and fashionable clothes, ( Kattiyapornpong and Miller, 2011).
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The results allow us to identify three main points of demographic changes. Firstly, it is the female market in Hong Kong that generally increased starting in 1999. As can be seen in the increase in the number of female tourists, the Hong Kong positioning of itself as a shopping paradise can be summarized as a good target fit. However, there were mature markets such as the USA, Taiwan, Japan where the number of female visitors were higher than the male and also the expenditures still high. A new campaign to appeal to this market should be considered to rejuvenate tourism numbers. In other words, it is crucial to emphasize destination facilities and security to meet the needs of this target. Secondly, the average ages of this top markets were between 34 to 48 years. It was noticed that majority were from the employment market. In addition, this generation may well be more adventurous. WTO (2010) recommended focusing on this target by providing flexible leisure time for them. In this case, the suggestion was provided for the government policy in terms of the quality life. Lastly, the first time visitor and repeat visitor are different. Lau & Mckercher (2004) proposed that these two targets have different motivations, first time visitors were motivated to visit Hong Kong to explore, while repeat visitors came as consumers; intending to shop, dine and spend time with family. This study found that there were two markets; Taiwan and Singapore and that the repeat visitor numbers were much higher than from other markets since 1999. In addition, Australian repeat visitor numbers increased in 2003. Interestingly, the expenditures by them were also high. As a result, there is some significant correlation between spending power and prior experience, which could be explored. Seldon & Mak (1987) found that travelers who were older and single women with higher incomes tended to travel on package tours. In the study of Kozak (2002), different factors such as age and income may have had an influence on destination choice. In addition, Hsu & Lam (2003) viewed that the Mainland Chinese visitor had relatively low income as the cost of visiting Hong Kong was too high for most residents of Mainland China. It can be argued from the finding in this study that the trend is changing as currently the Chinese mainland market has the biggest proportion of visitors and high spending power. The tourist demand trend always is changeable and dependent upon internal and external factors as mentioned by tourism demand impacts. This study found that only the Japanese and Korean markets had continually selected package tours for their trips to Hong Kong from 1999 to 2003 and then began to become increasingly more of an independent traveler. However, if compared to other top markets in this paper, these two markets are still more favorable with package tours than the other markets. The factors affecting travel choice may be more complicated for international travel rather than for domestic travel decisions. Therefore, understanding the choice of package and non-package travelers in terms of socio-demographics, travel characteristics, and psychographic attributes may help influence tourism development and planning as well as promotional and marketing strategies, (Hsieh et al, 1993). 5.3 Tourist Satisfaction & spending patterns within Hong Kong Hong Kong was positioned as a shopping paradise. Shopping leisure is one of the most popular tourist activities in global tourism, (Law and Au, 2000). Therefore, the attitude towards the level of satisfaction of the inbound market in Hong Kong has been evaluated from 1999-2010. Overall satisfaction of four main categories included value of money, shopping, hotel, dining and sightseeing. There was quite a huge gap in satisfaction; between 50 and 80 percentage points. For example, the level of satisfaction towards value of money for Taiwan market was quite low (47.6 and 38.4) as compared to others. Chang et al (2006) proposed that the Taiwanese tourist generally placed more emphasis on a staffs attitude and behavior than product prices. In addition, Service Quality, Room Qualities, and Value, appeared to be the top three hotel factors that determined travelers overall satisfaction levels and their likelihood of returning to the same hotel, ( Choi, T. and Chu, R. 2001). Interestingly, the Japanese market was among the most widely recognized groups of shopping tourists in the world. In fact, they appear to be more interested in shopping than other national or ethnic groups, (Kim et al 2011). Some studies show that Japanese tourist preferred to use their time in retail venues and noted that shopping is one of the most significant variables that create tour satisfaction among Japanese travelers, (Reisinger and Turner, 2002). However, this study found that the spending pattern of Japanese market has changed and was declining resulting in spending less after 2007 and the least in 2009 ( 3,919 HK/person). On the other hand, Taiwan market was quite stable in terms of overall expenditure. The Taiwan market, particularly in group tours, was mainly attracted by shopping activities in China, (Mak et al, 1999). This paper found that the Taiwanese tourist was also ranked as the highest spender in the last 12 years. On the other hand, in the long haul markets such as the USA, UK, Australia and Canada, they spent less. The report of the Hong Kong Tourist Association 1991-2000 indicated that Asian visitors tended to spend a larger proportion of their total expenditures on shopping than the Western visitor.
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However, the Korean market was lowest spender and their level of satisfaction was lower when compared to other top markets. Kim & Prideaux (2005) pointed out that the responses of Western tourists (Americans and Australians) were over all markedly different to the responses of Asian tourists. This is an important observation and indicates that the tourism industry must be prepared to differentiate its range of experiences and services according to the national culture of various visitors as their research found significant variables related to nationality with varied motivations. Wong and Law (2003) also stated that Asian and Western travelers from different nationalities have varied expectations in relation to satisfaction level. It should be emphasized on improving their approach as some retailers may treat the Western traveler better than the Asian traveler, even though Asian travelers have higher expenditures since 1999. Song, et al (2003) pointed out that Germany, Indonesia, India, Singapore and Taiwan tourists seem very sensitive to the prices of tourism product/services in Hong Kong while tourists from Korea and Japan seem do not pay much attention to tourism prices when they choose Hong Kong as a holiday destination. However, this study found that Japan and Korea expenditures were lower than other top markets since 1999, particularly that of the 2009 Japanese market. 6. Conclusion To sum up the volatility of tourism demand movement of Hong Kong in last 12 years, (1999 to 2010), there are significant changes in both origin markets and their destinations. In this study volatility behavior can possibly be related to tourism demand from demographic changes. On one hand, it is emphasized by demographic changes of origin market, as it is required to additional study. For example, female market from USA, Taiwan and Japan, their expenditures were still high, the average ages of this top markets were between 34 to 48 years who were called as employment market, and also the first time visitor and repeat visitor have different behaviors. This study found that since 1999 the two markets of Taiwan and Singapore, the repeat visitor numbers were much higher than the others in comparison. In addition, the Australian repeat visitor numbers increased in 2003. Interestingly, their expenditures were also high. As a result, there is some significant correlation between spending power and prior experience, which could be explored. On the other hand, the significant finding from tourist satisfaction and spending pattern is also crucial. This study found that the Taiwanese tourist was ranked in highest spending in last 12 years from the top 8 markets in this research. On the other hand, the long haul markets such as the USA, UK, Australia and Canada spent less. Asian visitors tend to spend a larger proportion of their total expenditure on shopping than the Western visitor. However, the Korean market was the lowest spender and their level of satisfaction was lower when compared to other top markets. In addition, the Japanese market tended to spend less after 2007 in contrast with the Taiwanese market that was quite stable in terms of overall expenditure. As it can be seen there are varied key factors determining tourism demand relating to volatility in tourism movement. It is important to clarify the trends from individual markets both internal and external factors. This study has a number of limitations that deserve further investigation which can be broken down into three areas. First, it is based on limited secondary data on tourism statistics provided by the Hong Kong Tourism Board and thus one is unable to analyze completely as there is some missing data where they are needed to critique different markets such as the number of expenditures, satisfaction level, and the number of overall visitors from 1999 to 2010. Secondly, in the mistyping from in tourism statistics was resulted of creating incorrect trend line analysis. Lastly, in the study of tourist visitor numbers is imperative to understand market segmentation emerging from a tourist behavior marketing approach. But the tourist statistic data only shows demographics, behavior and satisfaction. The most preferred approach especially in relation to tourism studies is the benefit-sought segmentation, which never fails to provide fresh insight into markets. It has been recommended from many scholars to group travelers by the benefit sought from their experiences that are valuable predictor of travel behavior and destination choice, (Botchen, Thelen and Peiters, 1999; Wind, 1978; Haley, 1968). In other words, a new demographic, geographic, behavioral profile can be developed from benefit-sought segmentation, not only by a traditional one. However, the outbound market data is also important to find the balance between an inbound and outbound approach. In other words, the study of visitor trend line applying to destination life cycle can be recommended to find the appropriate strategy. References: BBC.co.uk, (2009). Australia able to avoid recession, Retrieved on September 25Available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8080446.stm
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