MATH Statistical and Social research SAMPLE SIZE CALCULATION Proof of the new sample formula

Costas N. Tsiantis
Ph.D University of Maryland http://elepistole.blogspot.com

SYMBOLS:
Size of statistical population: N Number of population classes: m (m>=1) Percentages of population classes: P1, P2, ..Pm (where P1+ P2+ ..+Pm =1) Size of sample: n Number of sample classes: m (m>=1) Percentages of sample classes: 1, 2, ..m (where 1+ 2+ ..+m =1)

PROOF-Page1 A population N is consisted of m classes of subjects of size N1, N2, Nm respectively. The probability to find one subject of class-1 in the population is (1)

p1

N1 N

P 1

We consider now a sample of size n taken randomly from the population through the method of stratified sampling, that is, by taking at random n1 subjects from the population class-1 (lets call it event E1), n2 subjects from the population class-2 (event E2),...,nm subjects from the population class-m (event Em)

PROOF-Page2 The probability that one subject (of whatever class) from the population N is included in the sample n is (2)

n N

The probability that one subject of the population class-1 is included in the sample n is (3)

p11

p1 p

n P 1 N

PROOF-Page3 Since we select at random n1 subjects from the population class-1, the probability p11 is increased to the product p1n = n1*p11. Thus, the probability that one subject of class-1 from the population N is included in the sample n is (4) n

p1n

n1 P 1

To retain the similarity between the sample and the population, the probability p1n must be equal to the probability that one subject of class-1 be found in the sample. This is equal to the percentage 1=n1/n. Thus we have: n p1n n1 P 1 1 (5) N

PROOF-Page4 We repeat the aforementioned process for all the events Ei (i=1, 2, ..., m) and totally we have:

(6)

n p1n n1 P 1 N n p2 n n2 P2 N ................. n pmn nm Pm N

PROOF-Page5
The events Ei can be considered independent. Thus, the probability of their intersection is the product of their probabilities: (7)

P( E1

E2

...Em )

p1n p2 n ... pmn

Through Eq.6 we have then

(8)

n n n n1 P n2 P2 ......nm Pm 1 N N N

1 2

...

By replacing ni=i*n (i=1, 2,, m), we get (9)

2m

PP ...Pm 1 2

PROOF-page6 whereupon the law of population representation is derived: (10)

nath

N m PP ...P 1 2 m

Eq.10 justifies the size of the Boule (parliament) in ancient Athens. This is why it was referred to as the Athenian law of representation or participatory Democracy. Obviously: a) When the population N is completely homogeneous, that is m=1, then nath=N1/2. b) When it is completely inhomogeneous: m=N, then nath=N. This is the theoretical case of the direct participatory Democracy.

PROOF-FIN

The size of each class in the sample ni=i*n (i=1, 2,, m) depends upon the degree of similarity between the sample and the population. For complete similarity the sample percentages i must be equal to the population percentages Pi (i=1, 2,, m). Then ni=Pi*n Otherwise, the representation is incomplete. Keep going guys! Arrivederci

Costas Tsiantis