Germany Official Forecast

by Eduardo Petazze

German Industry and Commerce (DIHK) - Economic survey

On Feb. 4, 2014, German Industry and Commerce (DIHK) raises its growth forecast for 2014 to
2.0%, after the assessment had still been in the fall of 2013 at 1.7%
German exports should resume a wider growth path in 2014
The economic survey is based on more than 27,000 corporate responses
DIHK-Economic Forecast for 2014
DIHKPrognose
Y/Y (%)
2012
2013
2014
GDP
0.7
0.4
2.0
PCE
0.8
0.9
1.5
Govern. CE
1.0
1.1
1.4
GFCF
-2.1
-0.8
4.1
Equipment
-4.0
-2.2
5.0
other invest.
3.4
3.0
4.5
buildings
-1.4
-0.3
3.5
Export
3.2
0.6
4.5
Import
1.4
1.3
5.5
Labor market
DIHKPrognose
(000)
2012
2013
2014
Unemployement
2,897
2,950
2,900
Chg in employment
456
233
250

BMWi - Autumn 2013 Official Forecast

In tis autumn forecast, the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi) expects an
increase in real Gross Domestic Product from 0.5% in 2013 to 1.7% in 2014.
The number of registered unemployed should increase slightly in 2013 to around 2.95 million
In 2014 unemployed is expected to decline by 20 thousand to 2.93 million persons, representing
an unemployment rate of 6.8%
Germany - Autumn 2013 official forecast
(2005 prices) GDP (bn euro)
Y/Y GFCF (bn euro)
Y/Y Employment Y/Y
2010
2,375.7 4.01%
412.2 5.72%
40.59 0.53%
2011
2,454.8 3.33%
440.5 6.87%
41.15 1.39%
2012
2,471.8 0.69%
431.3 -2.09%
41.61 1.11%
2013
2,482.9 0.45%
430.2 -0.26%
41.84 0.56%
2014
2,524.8 1.69%
448.8 4.32%
42.02 0.43%
2015
2,560.4 1.41%
461.3 2.79%
42.09 0.16%
2016
2,596.4 1.41%
474.1 2.77%
42.16 0.16%
This forecast serve as a common framework of the preparation of public budgets of federal, state, and
social security funds.
Also see (German):
Projections of the federal government
Overall economic production potential and economic components pdf, 11 pages