vein, that our colleagues at the other end of the water manage- ment processthe wastewater treatment industryface almost identical problems and challenges. Indeed, although it is estimated that more than 1 billion people on this planet currently lack adequate access to clean drinking water, more than 2.5 billion people lack access to any kind of sanitation services. Many people in the water utility busi- ness have tended to think about the water and wastewater industries as being two rather different businesses. Sure, in our houses as well as in our factories clean water usually comes in through one pipe, and dirty water goes out through another. However, the differences and the boundaries between water and wastewater are slowly and surely fading. Today, we hear more and more frequently that water is waterregardless of its type or the amount of treatment it may need to undergo before we drink it or use it to manufac- ture computer chips. Water utilities are increasingly viewing wastewater as another potential source of drinking water. Certainly, the water and waste- water industries are more notable for their simi- larities than for their differences. Lets examine some of those similarities. First, the overall size of the two different busi- nesses are almost identical. Environmental Business International has estimated the total market, or revenue generated, for municipal wastewater treat- ment at about $29 billion per year and has put water utility revenues just slightly higher at $32 billion per year. Thus, in terms of their overall impact on the economy and their percentage of the total Gross National Product, the water business and the wastewater business are very similar. Second, the two industries use many of the same technological approaches and systems. Treatment technologies and management systems are under- going a similar proliferation and advance in waste- water treatment as in primary water treatment. As regulatory requirements become tougher and more comprehensive, newer technologies are coming into broader usemembrane filtration, advanced READERS OF JOURNAL AWWA HEAR A LOT ABOUT RISING CUSTOMER DEMANDS, VAST INFRASTRUCTURAL NEEDS, AND THE CONSEQUENTLY HUGE CAPITAL INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS THAT CHALLENGE AND CLOUD THE FUTURE OF THE US DRINKING WATER INDUSTRY. W Wastewater Is Water Too market outlook market outlook B Y S T E V E M A X W E L L Like the water industry, the wastewater industry is facing an overwhelming need for infrastructure replacement and capital expenditure during the next 20 years. It is estimated that each industry will need to spend about $300 billion. ALTHOUGH IT IS ESTIMATED THAT MORE THAN 1 BILLION PEOPLE ON THIS PLANET CURRENTLY LACK ADEQUATE ACCESS TO CLEAN DRINKING WATER, MORE THAN 2.5 BILLION PEOPLE LACK ACCESS TO ANY KIND OF SANITATION SERVICES. 2003 American Water Works Association JOURNAL AWWA | SEPTEMBER 2003 43 oxidation treatment techniques such as ultravio- let radiation and ozonation, and constructed wetlands and other approaches that mimic nat- ural treatment systems. More thoughtful strate- gic and operational planning and better asset management have likewise made possible great efficiency gains in both industries. Third, the overwhelming need for infrastruc- ture replacement and capital expenditure is prob- ably the most critical challenge facing the wastewater industry, just as it is in the drinking water business. Although studies abound and dollar estimates vary, most observers put the total investment required in the wastewater treatment busi- ness over the next 20 years at around the same $300 billion level that AWWA has estimated for drink- ing water infrastructure. Upgrading and maintaining the wastewater and sanitation infrastructure are clearly just as critical as upgrading and replacing the primary water infrastructureto human health, to the environment, and to the functioning and growth of our economy. Users of the service will not be able to pay for all of these costs. The Water Infrastructure Network has estimated that if all of the required investments for upgrading water and wastewater infrastructure were to be funded by local users, the fees that we all pay each month would have to approximately double. That is not likely to happen, so federal and other funding mechanisms must be developedin water and in wastewater infrastructure. Fourth, because both industries have the eco- nomic characteristics of natural monopolies, they exhibit similar tendencies or imperatives toward consolidation. Bigger regional systems, if operated properly, can often provide service to customers at improved efficiency or reduced costs. Bigger operations can allow greater economies of scale, so there is a trend toward consolidation of systemssimilar to the rapid consolidation we have seen among the vendors to the water and wastewater businesses over the past several years. Because of the confluence of these similar chal- lenges, the wastewater business is also increas- ingly turning to private operators and private sources of capital in an effort to help meet all of these increased demands. This trend toward greater private participation in the overall water business has attracted many companies in the past several years. Many observers attribute the great foreign invasion of the US water indus- try in the late 1990s to an effort by European players to gain strategic position for the impend- ing privatization of the US municipal business. However, it is now clear that there are limits to privatizationon both the water and the waste- water sides of the business. The issue of the solid by-products of waste- water treatmentso-called biosolidsand what to do with them is perhaps the one aspect of the wastewater treatment business which in fact does make it a bit different from the primary drinking water business. As advanced treatment standards have been regulated into place over recent years, the wastewater treatment business has become more and more efficient and has off- set the higher costs of regulatory compliance by developing and marketing an economically valu- able by-product: biosolid material. So, over time, we are coming to realize that water really is just water. Wastewater, just like groundwater, surface water, or even pristine mountain lake water, should really be viewed as just another potential source of raw water for water utilities to utilize in the provision of clean water to their customers. In the future, water utilities may well compete fiercely over their rights and access to wastewater streams as vari- ous raw water sources become more restricted and hard to find. So, the boundaries between two businesses that have historically been thought to be quite different continue to blur. The water and waste- water industries should both be fighting for the same ideals. One day we will probably recognize them as essentially the same industry. The challenges and needs of this coalescing water resource industry are likely to be one of the most pressing problems facing humankind over the next century. The Johannesburg Earth Summit of 2002 set as one of its goals the halv- ing of the number of people without decent water and sanitation services by the year 2015. market outlook THE WATER AND WASTEWATER INDUSTRIES SHOULD BOTH BE FIGHTING FOR THE SAME IDEALS. ONE DAY WE WILL PROBABLY RECOGNIZE THEM AS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME INDUSTRY. 2003 American Water Works Association 44 SEPTEMBER 2003 | JOURNAL AWWA market outlook Making these kinds of objectives a reality rather than simply happy talk will require a vast effort by all the countries of the world. Given that only about 6% of the worlds water and wastewater needs are met by private organiza- tions, publicly owned water and wastewater organizations will clearly have the major role to play in achieving these sorts of goals. It is important to note that this is not just a problem for the rest of the worldit is a prob- lem right here at home too. The vast and press- ing nature of the worlds water problems about the broader water industry were just highlighted in a special section on water in the July 19 issue of the widely respected international news- magazine The Economist. Concluding that throughout history water resources have been ill-governed and colossally underpriced, this review highlighted many contentious arguments and issues plaguing the international water industry. However, the report also stated that there is one aspect of water use about which nearly everyone agreesand which we would all do well to consideralthough we are making gains, the United States is the most wasteful nation on earth in terms of water use. Steve Maxwell is managing director of TechKNOWLEDGEy Strategic Group, a Boulder, Colo.based management consultancy specializing in merger and acquisition support services, strategic planning, and market research for water and broader environmental industries. Maxwell is also the editor and founder of The Environmental Benchmarker and Strategist, the environmental industrys most comprehensive source of competitive and financial data. He has advised dozens of environmental services and water firms on strategy and transactional issues, and he can be reached in Boulder at (303) 442-4800 or via e-mail at maxwell@tech-strategy.com. 2003 American Water Works Association