Tools and Methods for Vulnerability Analysis

Prof N H Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science

Approach to assessment of impact of & Vulnerability to CC

STEP-1 Assess current climate variability for a given region
programs-implications for adaptive capacity to current climate variability
STEP-2 Assess current status of natural resources and development

STEP-3 Projections for climate change 2030s

STEP-4 Assessing the impacts of climate change on - water resources,

food production, forests,and livelihoods in region

STEP-5 Assessment of adaptive capacity of food production systems, forest ecosystems, water resources, farmers, communities

STEP-6 Development of vulnerability profiles to CV & CC- to identify and prioritize sectors and districts for Adapt projects
STEP-7 Development of vulnerability screening tool to evaluate development projects on agriculture, forests, water and livelihood STEP-9 Implementation of vulnerability screening tool to identify projects for adaptation

STEP-1; Current climate variability assessment for vulnerability assessment

Step 1: Select the region and scale State, district, town, village, watershed

Step 2: Select the period for CV analysis

30 years (1980-2010) 50 years (1960-2010)

Step 3: Select climate parameters

Min temp Max temp Daily/monthly rainfall Droughts / floods

Met station and gridded data Trend monthly/seasonal / interannual Mean, variance Drought / flood; Frequency and intensity

Step 4: Obtain data from Met dept. Step 5: Conduct analysis

Southwest monsoon rainfall of Northeast India -1901-2007 expressed as percentage departure from long term mean.

Precipitation Trend over 100 years

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Districtwise spatial pattern of minimum temperature trend over 100 years

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SEPT-2; Climate change projections for Vulnerability analysis

Step 1: Select the region and scale Step 2: Select the period for CC projections Step 3: Select the GCM / RCM Step 4: Select RCM grid size
Select district, town, village, watershed 2020 2050 2020 2030 2050 2099 Hadley Centre Max Planck 50 km X 50 km 20 km X 25 km Select GHG scenario - A1, A2, A1B - RCPs: 2.6, 6, 8 W/m2

Step 5: Select GHG scenario

Step 6: Select CC parameters

Temperature; Min/Max / Mean Monthly, Seasonal Drought / Flood; Frequency / Intensity

STAPE-4; Assessment of impact of climate change on different sectors Step 1: Select the Agriculture, Forest, Sector Water, Health Step 2: Select the Agriculture impact Water assessment Forest model Step 3: Select Model GCM/RCM, GHG GHG scenario / Period Time period Step 4: Run model Step 5: Assess impacts of climate change Current climate scenario Future climate scenario Agriculture Water Forest Crops, forest types, river basins
INFOCROP, CROPSYS SWAT, STREAM LPJ, IBIS HadRM3 A1B, A2, B2 2020-2050 1980-2030 A1B for 2030 Crop yield % change Stream flow, Available water, Evapo-transpiration, Flood/Drought Forest type shift, NPP

Climate Change Impact on Agriculture

INFOCROP Model Rice yields in the North East Rice yield will undergo change in most districts; increase or decrease Rice yield is projected to increase marginally in 21 districts (out of 64 analyzed)

Rice yield is projected to decline in 43 out of 64 districts

STEP-5; Assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity

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Step 1: Select the region, scale, sector, communities

Step 2: Identify indicators that characterize vulnerability / adaptive capacity } Climate, Biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructural } Adopt PCA method to select the indicators

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Step 3: Modeling, field studies and secondary data collection to estimate indicators Step 4: Quantification, normalization and aggregation of indicators Step 5: Develop a composite index for vulnerability / adaptive capacity Developed;
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Water V, Agric V, Forest V, poverty V indices

Vulnerability indicators and methods

Indicators Methods Climate trend analysis Downscaling of GCM projections

Exposure

Extreme climate events Droughts/floods Climate change projections

Sensitivity

Extent of rainfed land % of small farmers Impact of projected climate on crop yields
Extent of area irrigated Access to drought resistant crop varieties Crop insurance Literacy rate Infrastructure; roads.. Access to alternate livelihood Access to early warning system for weather events

-Secondary data -Modeling of climate impacts on crop yields

Adaptive capacity

-Secondary data -Socio-economic surveys

Indicators for Agric. Vulnerability

Variance in rainfall and Net Sown area Area under irrigated and rainfed crops Amount of fertilizers, manure consumed for kharif and rabi season Area under all crops treated with manure and pesticides Annual groundwater draft for irrigation Soil Organic Carbon Variance in crop yields- irrigated (rice) and rainfed (Maize) Total Number of holdings growing one or more crops Area under forest cover as percent of geographical area of the district Percentage of workers in nonagriculture sector (alternate livelihood sources) Rural income

Project types for vulnerability assessment

Sector Watershed
Agriculture

Project type o Watershed development

o Agriculture development o Sustainable agriculture oExpansion of irrigation o Soil and Water conservation o Biodiversity conservation o Land reclamations o Forest conservation o Afforestation and Reforestation o Flood management o Drought management

NRM

Forestry Water
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Capacity requirements
Task / Activity
Current Climate Vulnerability assessment Climate Change projections Selection of Climate change or GHG scenario Selection of GCM Selection of RCM Impact modeling Selection of sector- water Selection of model SWAT Running the model Extraction & interpretation of outputs Socio-economic survey Mapping and spatial analysis
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Capacity
Statistical modeling Data analysis and management Ability access download and extract CC projections from multiple sources Statistical downscaling Data preparation for impact modeling Computer programming capacity Modelling- Impact- application capacity GIS capability Data collection and management

Data collection and analysis GIS capability

Barriers to vulnerability assessment

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Data barriers Field data and Secondary data Scale of data availability and Scale of decision making Grids, State, District and Panchayat Modeling capacity
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Impact modeling; SWAT / INFOCROP / IBIS Climate change GCM/RCM data extraction and analysis

Reliability of the climate projections for micro-level / watershed level application } Generating biophysical data at micro-level } Assessment of adaptive capacity due to complex relationship between socio-economic, biophysical and infrastructural parameters } Disparity between model projections, vulnerability ranking generated, field scenario and priority of 14 decision makers
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Lessons learnt in vulnerability assessment

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Realization among decision or policy makers on the need to address climate risks
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Current Climate variability & future climate change

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Flood and droughts } Current responses are not adequate for addressing CC Willingness of policy/ decision makers to mainstream adaptation to climate change in the development programmes Existing climate change projections and impact models are adequate for decision making on } Reasonable understanding of current climate variability } Climate change projections/grids lower than 50 km by 50 km } Access to climate change projections improve soon } Capacity available for modeling in many countries or capacity could be built downloadable information soon } Though data availability is a limitation/ it will always be - but adequate data can be generated for modeling / decision making } Most interventions in Water, Agric, forest sectors win-win Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change variability is feasible Multiple approaches and methods are available for vulnerability assessment - profile development and adaptation.
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