India Elections 13-14, the dilemma for main Parties

By: Amit Bhushan Date: 2nd Nov 2013 Elections 13-14 represent a major challenge for the Ruling dispensation as well as the Principle Opponents. It is as much a challenge for the Aam Admi who is seeking a reprieve from the economic misdeeds and mis-fortune of the years that have passed by. In the ensued battle royale, both the political sides are totally consummated in ensuring how to make the other side loose. This is because both sides are well aware that neither of them can muster a majority on their own. So the political derivation is to ensure that the other side has a low number so that they face challenges in cobbling up a workable coalition. (This gets even more complicated as elections in India are more about who or which sub-group in a political party rather than putting all members of a party in same group. This is because a sub-group in a party dominates its philosophy rather than a party acing as one unit). The financiers for such an idea are many, since such financiers know that it is easy to control smaller groups and make the government yield to their demands by exercising control via smaller political support groups. It suits the interests of the present politicians as well as business houses as they want to maintain status quo to protect their interest and also want to ensure government support to further their ongoing interests.

The opposition group is busy to paint a loser image for current dispensation so that the so called secularist political groups are under pressure, not to extend support to them. Similarly, the ruling dispensation is busy demonizing the opposition leadership so that the secularist parties are under pressure to keep distance with the principle opposition. In many ways, this election is about defeating the opposition then seeking a win for self. In fact there is little financial backing to win elections for self and for people of the constituency since such an idea will raise questions and demand changes that most politicians and businesses are fearful of. No wonder, the learned politicians in ruling group as well as in opposition and beyond, know the fact and are geared to reap whatever rewards the opportunity has in store for them. Few politicians have any interest in pursuing the welfare of the common man, but have a very real interest in their own political sustenance and therefore instead of questioning the basis of the fight, they tend to swim in the direction of the political torrent towards the finish line. This ensures them the post for which all this fight is all about, with visions and manifestos being a tactical tool to befool the Aam admi who is all set to reap a peanut again for all his voting effort.

The smaller political establishments are well aware of the fact and are fully geared up to play the ball, since it would yield to them a way to sustain and make a more suitable place for themselves in future political setting. However such polity is indeed very challenging to national parties which want to convince people of the greatness of their ideological leanings so that they have somewhat more permanent etchings on the peoples mindset rather than being ephemeral players. While the present ruling dispensation is somewhat more confident on this count owing to its glorious past in ruling the nation, the principle opposition seems trying to make some roaring noise in the politico-economic space contours of which are still not very clear. The present political currents seem to be setting up in manner to ensure that such attempts will indeed be very challenging politically since the smaller secularists would ensure the government on its toes and yielding once again to the businesses that seem to have a very strong influence on almost all ruling dispensations.

This election is a bit more confusing than some of the previous elections, especially ones in which opposition was supposed to perform well. This is because in all those elections, the ruling party had the main cult leader, while the opposition had a bouquet of independent leaders led by a pilot who became a rallying point for all other leaders as well as the public. The pilot managed this bouquet of leaders without posing any threat to them even as he emerged as rally point for masses e.g. JP, VP or Atal. The pilot thus became a faade under which all leaders could achieve their respective objectives. In this election, besides the ruling partys cult leader (derived from a family), one can feel that the principle opposition has managed to find its own cult leader. The veracity of the opposition cult leader is likely to be under test to gain vote across multiple states breaking caste, creed and language barriers, not an easily surmountable task. To add further complication, the smaller secularist parties seem to be combining into an ideological bouquet in order to present themselves as an electorally relevant entity at national level although their quest to find an acceptable pilot, who can rally masses is doubtful. The ruling party is busy painting the emerging situation as one which is against the communal opposition rather than an existential threat to itself. Then there is this existing state election in the Capital state where ruling party and opposition are in slugfest with a newbie. The situation again is being ascribed as one where a third front has a political space to thrive and thus an opportunity for the third front.

In politics, it is not the stated intent but the effective impact which matters more. That the secularist parties are unable to gather under or extend support to the ruling secularist dispensation poses a clear and present danger to the ruling party which is now supposed to battle on two fronts

rather than one. And the inclination of the people to experiment with a newbie ignoring the established parties, actually is a measure of the extent of their disenchantment with existing political parties and the system. This should actually ring a bell with the existing old parties whose political shops are losing clientele (Although it must be acknowledged that voter education is still a long way to go in rural areas to reach the level of voter education in the Capital state). This is because the positioning of the newbie party is different from emerging Third front as they are mainly urban middle class following professionals with no direct focus on caste or religion so far, so unlike most of the members of the third front which have focused mainly on the marginalized castes and minority votes to sustain themselves.

The political reaction from the ruling party is almost as baffling as that of the main opposition. Under pressure due to its existing need of support from select third front members, the ruling party is unable to launch any full blown political action. Instead it is busy portraying them as anti-communal block resisting the onslaught of the communal opposition. It has so far refrained from temptation to explore mis-management of MNREGA, Rural Road funds or Irrigation funds, Funds for Service such as Education and Healthcare, Bank loan waivers, land grabs that abound under most of these dispensations (with pathetic law and order management reputation and low property right enforcement record, although the ruling party or opposition are little different in terms of land ownership right enforcement) against such parties which has potential to substantially erode their support base, provided some sustained voter education is carried out in rural areas under influence of these parties. Such attacks are commonly exchanged between the ruling party and opposition and both have ignored the smaller secularist in order to party with them post elections. These parties in return are paying lip service on inflation and corruption issues, thus setting up plot around communalization, caste-ism and minority vote-bank politics which has served them well over the years. The media analysts are somehow convinced that that this plot is a clincher for the main opposition and they are making extra efforts to convince everyone about the same and thus there seems no need to debate on any economic agenda. The main opposition will need a Cult Leadership Plus strategy wherein the Cult Leaders counter each other while Plus leaders as well as Bouquet of Ideological Leaders in third front carry on their own respective battles which can be in specific regions or on specific ministry or policy areas. The ruling party can check for itself that for how long they can manage their contradictions in the way that they have sustained it so far. This is quite possible that they get pushed out of more areas just as they are out of Doaba, a real holocast scenario over the long term. This also leave the field open for independents (especially the ones who are ignored for party tickets) to exploit the void left open by the parties so that

they can etch for themselves a role in any post election hung parliament i.e. if the uncovered gap on electoral ground is large enough to get elected. The hung parliament always is a huge opportunity for small time politicians to establish their political belief systems and service masses.