International

Library
and

of

Psychology
Method

Philosophy

Scientific

Chance,

Love

and

Logic

International

Library
and
:

of

Psychology
Method
OGDEN,
M.A.

Philosophy
GENERAL
EDITOR

Scientific
C. K.
(Magdalene

College,Cambridge)

VOLUMES
PHILOSOPHICAL THE MISUSE OF

ALREADY

PUBLISHED

STUDIES
MIND

by

G.

E.

MOORE,
KARIN

Litt.D.
STEPHEN

by
Note
.

Prefatory
CONFLICT
PSYCHOLOGY TRACTATUS AND AND DREAM
.

by
.

Henri
.

Bergson by by
.

W. W.
.

H. H.

R. R. L.

RIVERS, RIVERS,

F.R.S. F.R.S.

POLITICS

LOGICO-PHILOSOPHICUS
.

by
W.

WITTGENSTEIN

Introduction

by by

Bertrand
.

Russell
.

THE

MEASUREMENT

OF

EMOTION
William

by
C. G.

WHATELY

SMITH

Introduction PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPES METHOD THOUGHT OF AND MEANING

.

Brown

by

JUNG, by
A. D. and
H.

M.D.,
D.

LL.D.
RITCHIE

SCIENTIFIC
SCIENTIFIC THE MEANING

by
.

C.

BROAD,
I. A.
VAN

LittD.

by

C.

K.
.

OGDEN

RICHARDS
DER

CHARACTER THE PSYCHOLOGY

THE OF

UNCONSCIOUS REASONING
.
.

by J. by

HOOP

EUGENIC

RIGNANO

IN
THE ANALYSIS OF AND PSYCHOLOGY FOR OF OF MATTER

PREPARATION

by
.

BERTRAND

RUSSELL,
H. R.

F.R.S. F.R.S. ADLER F.R.S. F.R.S.

PSYCHOLOGY
INDIVIDUAL MATHEMATICS THE THE PSYCHOLOGY PHILOSOPHY

ETHNOLOGY

by

W.

RIVERS,
ALFRED

by
PHILOSOPHERS
. .

by
G.

G.

H.

HARDY, SMITH,
VON

MYTHS
. .

by

ELLIOT

THE

UNCONSCIOUS

by
G. Elliot Smith

E.

HARTMANN

Introduction THE THEORY OF MEDICAL

by Professor
DIAGNOSIS

by
ELEMENTS OF AND PSYCHOTHERAPY
.

F.

G.

CROOKSHANK,
WILLIAM

M.D.,

F.R.C.P. D.Sc.

by

BROWN,

M.D.,

EMOTION

INSANITY Introduction

by by Professor
PHENOMENA
.

S.

THALBITZER

H.

off ding by by
E.

SUPERNORMAL THE THE LAWS PSYCHOLOGY OF

PHYSICAL FEELING OF MUSIC

J. DINGWALL
F. PAULHAN

by
EDWARD

J.

DENT WOOD

COLOUR-HARMONY
DEVELOPMENT THE PSYCHE THE HISTORY OF OF CHINESE MATERIALISM

by JAMES
THOUGHT
. .

by

LIANG

CHE-CHIAO F. A. E. LANGE ROHDE

by by
PEOPLES
.

by
PRIMITIVE
OF METHOD VALUE OF MIND PRIMITIVE IN P.

RADIN,

Ph.D.
D.Sc.

PSYCHOLOGY

by by

B. P.

MALINOWSKI,
SARGANT BARBARA

STATISTICAL
SCOPE AND

ECONOMICS THEORY

FLORENCE WOOTTON CHARLES Fox

ECONOMIC

by

EDUCATIONAL
THE THE PRINCIPLES PHILOSOPHY

PSYCHOLOGY OF OF CRITICISM
'
.

by
. .
.

by
.

I. A. H.

RICHARDS

AS

IF

'
.
. .

by

VAIHINGER

Chance,

Love

and

Logic

PhilosophicalEssays

By
CHARLES

the

late

S.

PEIRCE

Edited

with

an

Introduction

by

MORRIS

R.

COHEN

With

Supplementary
of

Essay
Peirce

on

the

Pragmatism

by

JOHN

DEWEY

LONDON
,

KEGAN
NEW

PAUL,
YORK
:

TRENCH,

TRUBNER
BRACE "

"

CO., LTD.
INC.

HARCOURT,

COMPANY,

1923

PRINTED

IN THE U.S.A.

PREFACE

IN the

the
most

essays

gathered
and

together
coherent

in

this

volume
account

we

have
of the

developed
of

available
whom

philosophy Dewey,
many and and

Charles

S.
thinkers

Peirce,
in in the

James, France,
of their and in
as

Royce,
Ger

leading Italy
have of

England,
forefront

placed
recent

the

great

seminal
value
as

minds the

times. of
a

Besides

inherent fruitful the

us

expression
well
essays deal this

highly
and

original

mind,

unusually
these
a

trained
are

informed

exact

sciences,
sources

also

important

giving

the

of

great
of

of

contemporary

American

philoso
omissions
correc

phy.
or

Because have

historical made in and the

importance
text

"lo

changes
of
some

been

beyond
of

the
a

tion

obvious in the

slips
of

the

recasting

few

ex

pressions
In
a

interest which

intelligibility.
with
notes

subject
the

bristles
to

suggestions
of such

and
or

diffi
dis

culties
sent

temptation

add But

explanation
notes

is almost doubled
comment
as

insuperable.
the
on

as

might
refrained

easily
from

have all

size the

of
text

this

volume in The the

a

I have

except

few

footnotes

(indi

cated, (and
various
not

usual, hope
lines it of
to

in

brackets).

introduction
to

is intended the I
can

will) help thought

reader in

concatenate

contained

these

essays. their

pretend
minds

have like

adequately
those of

indicated and
am

significance.
have been

Great

James
and I

Royce persuaded

nourished

by

these

writings

that

they

iv

PREFACE

still

offer

mines

of

fruitful

suggestion.
their

Prof.
for

Dewey's
fundamental

sup

plementary question
Grateful
of

essay

indicates

value

the

metaphysics, acknowledgment
to

viz.

the

nature

of

reality.
to

is

here

made

Mrs.

Paul

Carus

and

the

Open
of

Court

Publishing
II from the

Co.

for

permission
The
late

to

reprint
Carus

the

essays

Part

Monist.

Paul

was

one

of

the

very

few

who

not

only

gave

Peirce

an

opportunity
of his

to

publish,

but

publicly

recognized

the

importance
I
must

writings.
my
to

also

acknowledge permission
Peirce
from the

obligation
reprint Journal
of his

to

Professor

Dewey Pragmatism
to

for

kind

essay

on

the

of

Philosophy, Woodbridge

and

the

editors

of

that

Journal,
to

Professors

and

Bush,
Part V

for

permission
the

reprint
was

some

material

of

my

own.

of

Bibliography

compiled

by

Mr.

Irving

Smith.

MORRIS

R.

COHEN

THE

COLLEGE

OF

THE

CITY

OF

NEW

YORK.

TABLE

OF

CONTENTS

PAGE

INTRODUCTION

vii
-

PROEM.

THE

RULES

OF

PHILOSOPHY

PART

I.

CHANCE of

AND

LOGIC

(Illustrations

of

the

Logic

Science.)
Taxation of

1.

The

Belief
,

2.

How

to

Make

Our
of

Ideas

Clear

Y
32^
61

3.

The

Doctrine

Chances
of Induction

4.

Th'e

Probability
Order of

82

5.

The

Nature

106

6.

Deduction,

Induction

and

Hypothesis

131

PART

II.

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

"-

1.

The
The

Architecture
Doctrine of

of

Theories

157

2.

Necessity

Examined

179

3.

The

Law

of

Mind

202

4.

Man's

Glassy

Essence

238

5.

Evolutionary

Love

267

SUPPLEMENTARY

ESSAY
"

The

Pragmatism

of

Peirce,

by

John

Dewey

301

INTRODUCTION

MANY

and

diverse

are

the
are,

minds

that

form

the the

philo
great
I

sophic community.
masters,
the
to
a

There

first and
rear

foremost,
their

system
the
varied

builders

who

stately palaces
minds
are

towering
served

moon.

These

architectonic
and

by

host

of followers
to

auxiliaries.

Some
of in

provide the furnishings

the mind
more

make

these

mystic
are

mansions

commodious, facades
weak many
more

while

others

engaged
are

making

their

imposing.
or

Some much-needed

busy
addi these
are

strengthening tions, while

structures
ever

places
more

building
engaged
army down mark

are

in of upon of

defending
critics who
and human who for

against
and
or

the

impetuous
to

eager is
new

ready
bears

pounce mortal

destroy

all

that tion.
more

the

imperfec
are

There
narrow

are

also

the

those philologists,

in

sense

scholars,who
the
stones

dig

not

only
serve

facts

or

roots, but

also
or as

for

which

may

either from
in

for all' their that

are

building

weapons
are

of

destruction.
rovers

Remote

these, however,
search surrounds
not

the

intellectual into

who,
thick

for

new

venture fields,

the

jungle
They
and with
to

the

little patch

of

cultivated

science.

gregarious creatures, these lonely pioneers; they

often

in their those
com

wanderings
who tread

completely
Those
of

lose that

touch
return

the beaten

paths.

the
and

munity
not

often

speak

strangely
arouse

strange

things;
for

it is
to

always
them

that and

they change

sufficient
trails into
vii

faith

others

follow

their

high

roads.

viii

INTRODUCTION

Few

nowadays

question the great

claimed
that and
to

value

of these
are

pioneer
estab

minds; and
lished lost.
can

it is often

universities

to

facilitate their

work,

prevent it from

being

But find

like universities,

other

well-managed institutions,
work

place only

for

those

who

well

in harness.
conven

The

impatient minds, restless,

thus

like the

or socially no

tionallyunacceptable, are
fruitful their
one

kept out,

matter
was

how

originality.Charles
restless

S. Peirce with the

certainly gift of of

of

these

pioneer
his and

souls

fatal

genuine originality.In

early papers, later,in volume,

he
we was

in the Journal the Monist

Speculative Philosophy, reprinted as

vast

papers
a an

Part

II of this
on

get glimpses of

philosophicsystem
wealth of

which and

working
To
one

with
a

unusual

material

apparatus.
added

rich of the

imagination and extraordinarylearninghe

most
to

of successful system essential gifts

an

the builders, But

power

coin

apt and

strikingterminology.
these

the admitted of his

incompleteness of sophic system

of the task A is not and

preliminary sketches
to the

philo

due altogether external inner

causes

inherent
as

difficulty
and

to

such

neglect
of

poverty.

certain

or instability

lack

self-mas way

tery is reflected in the outer

wardness

moral few

or

conventional
at

which, except
him
to

for

years
a

Johns Hopkins,
and

caused
thus

be excluded
him of much

from

university career,
stimulus the years
to

deprived

needed

ordinary advanced,

consistency

and

As intelligibility.

bringing littlegeneral interest in,or recognition of,the bril

liant and

studies logical
more

of his

early years,

Peirce

became
so

more

fragmentary, cryptic, and companion

of his

involved; youth,

that

James,

the intellectual

later found

INTRODUCTION
"

ix

his lectures

on

pragmatism,

flashes of brilliant light re

"
"

lieved against Cimmerian

be
est

darkness

statement

not
no

to

discounted entirely
in
or

by the
formal

fact that
or logical

James

had

inter
con

aptitudefor

mathematical

siderations.

Despite
one

these

limitations, however, Peirce stands

of modern

out

as

of the great founders realm his of

scientific logic;and
of
some

in

the of

general philosophy the development

ideas has

pregnant

led
as

to

the
as

pragmatism

and

radical idealism

empiricism of James,
of Royce, and
the
to

well

to

the mathematical which char1

the anti-nominalism known

as

acterizes At well any

as

philosophicmovement
of

Nee-Realism.

rate, the work

that of

James, Royce,

and

Russell, as"
of the

logicianslike Schroeder,brings us
a

present generation into

of significance Peirce's

better than

position to appreciate the

were

work,

his

contemporaries.

Peirce scientist.

was

by antecedents, training,and
He
was a son

occupation

of and the

Benjamin
his

Peirce, the great

Harvard

mathematician,
his

early environment, to
Scientific School,

gether with

trainingin
claim

Lawrence he
was

his favorite justified

that

brought
not

up

in

laboratory. He
mathematical

made

important contributions
also in

only

in

logic but

photometric astronomy,
as

geodesy,
many

and

psychophysics, as
Peirce
to

well

in

philology. For geodesy,and

on

years

worked the

on

the problems of

his contribution

his researches subject,

the

pendu

lum,
in

was

at

once

recognized by European
International

investigators

this

field.

The

Geodetic

Congress,

to

INTRODUCTION

which usual

he

was

the
to

first American his paper, and

representative, gave
men

un

attention

like

Cellerier
him.1
measure

and

Plantamour This and with

acknowledged
other
the

their

to obligations

scientific work

involving fine

ment,
of in

correlative
seem

into the theory investigations have been

a

probable
the

error,

to

decisive influence
of chance.

development

of

Peirce's actual

philosophy

Philosophersinexperiencedin
may

scientific measurement such every and

statements
as

naively accept particle of

the the

as

absolute

truth

"every

matter

attracts
masses

other

particle
the

as directly

product

of their

inverselyas
and

square

of
to

distance,"or
water
are

"when ratio

hydrogen
of their in

oxygen is 1:8."

combine
But

form who with

the

weights

to those

actuallyengaged
of

measuring natural
shows
no

phenomena
such worker

instruments
or

nature precision,

absolute

constancy
no

simplicity. As
no

every
one

laboratory
observer
in To

knows,

two

observers,and

successive the
men

experiments,get absolutelyidentical results. period of

science this
was no

of the heroic held

difficulty.
nature

They
was

unquestioningly the Platonic

on

faith that

created

and simple geometric lines,

all the minute

variations the and and But there

were

attributable
of his

to the fault of the

observer
faith

or

crudity
still is,a
a

instruments.

This
to

heroic

was,

most

powerful stimulus

scientific research

protection against the incursions of supernaturalism.

would

few

defend

it

to-day

in its
to

explicitform,
that

and the ob-

is little empirical evidence and his instruments

are

show

while

observer

always varying, the

sur

See

Plantamour's
d'un

"

Recherche
ses

Experitnentales

le

mouvement 3-4.

simultant

pendtde

et de

supports," Geneva,

1878, pp.

INTRODUCTION

xi

jectswhich
the the

he

measures

never

deviate
one

in the

from slightest
more

simple law.

Doubtless, as

becomes

expert in
is
a

instruments, manipulation of physical

of the range skill and succeeded
"

there
"

notice

able diminution
no

of the

personal
of

error,"but
our

amount

of
ever

no

refinement

instru

ments

have

in
to

though eliminatingirregular,
law of nature and

small, variations.
you
more

Try
more

verify any precise your

will find that certain

2

the

observations,the
from

they
There

will be is

to

show

irregular departure
our

the law." formation

constants tween

certainly nothing in
us are

in empirical

to

prevent
nature
so near

from

saying

that

all the

so-called
be

of

merely
each

instances that

of variation
their

limits be

other

differences
the ap

may

neglectedfor
to

certain

purposes.

Moreover,
in
mass

proach
when but the
we

constancy is observed
are

only

phenomena,
of

dealing with
also

very

large numbers
constant

particles;
when dis
con

social statistics numbers

are

approach

ratios

very

large. Hence,
errors

without

denying

crepancies due
tends that
"

solelyto
must
to

of far

observation,Peirce
minute

we

suppose

more

discrepancies
law

to exist
to
a

owing

the

imperfect
of the

cogency facts

of the from any

itself,
definite

certain
3

swerving

formula."

if

It is usual

to associate

disbelief in absolute
for freedom
or

laws

of

na-

ffture with

sentimental

claims

theological
attack rational

It is,therefore, well ^miracles. is

to insist that
exact

Peirce's
a

entirelyin the
of the

interests

of

logic and
As
a

account

physical universe.

rigorous logician
our

familiar with
2

the actual
190.

procedures by
3

which

knowledge

P.

Pp. 162-163.

xii

INTRODUCTION

of

the

various that All

laws

of

nature

is

obtained, he
their claim
to

could

not

admit
ness.

experiencecould
the

prove

absolute

physical laws
of

actuallyknown,
excessive

like

Boyle's

law

or

the law

involve gravitation,
course

simplifica
thus
a

tion of the element of

phenomenal

of events, and But

a

large

empirical inaccuracy.
traditional

more

positive
or

objectionagainst the
invariable makes
cuts
us

assumption

of absolute

laws

of nature, is the the

fact that such

assumption
thus
or

the

of regularities the
to

universe
ever

ultimate,and explainingthem
the

off from
comes

of possibility be
as

how
as

there

much

in regularity

universe

there is.

But the

in

the ordinary affairs,

occurrence

of any

is regularity modern

very

thing

to

be

explained. Moreover,

statistical mechanics

and

thermodynamics (theory
that the in regularity that of the the

of gases, entropy, universe is

a

etc.) suggest
of
a

matter

gradual growth;
from
a

whole

of\
a

physicalnature
maximum of

is

growth

chaos A

to diversity

uniformity or entropy.

of leadingphysicist

the

igth Century, Boltzmann, has

of the

suggested
is like
or

that that

the of
a

process

whole
up

physical universe
of
a

continuous of
more

shaking

hap-hazard

chance
a

mixture

things,which
uniform

thus

gradually results
Since
real Duns

in

progressively

distribution. that every

or

Scotus, students
its individual
cannot

of

have known logic

entityhas

character

(itshaecceitas
deduced from

thisness)which
that which
of the

be

ex

plained

or

is uniform.

Every
take undePeirce is

explanation,for example,
existences particular rived
means

moon's

path

must

for

granted. Such

or original

and individuality

diversityis preciselywhat
from this

by chance;
law.

and

point of

view

chance

prior to

INTRODUCTION

xiii

All that there is

an

is necessary

to

visualize this is to suppose

that

infinitesimal
which

tendency
is itself be
an on

in

things
accidental the road

to

acquire
variation

habits,a tendency
grown the

habitual.
evolution and

We

shall then existence the of

to

explain

the

limited

uniformities

actuallyprevailingin
A

physical world. foregoing

were so

good

deal But

of
even

the

may

sound have

somewhat

mythologic.
of ogy
a offering

if it

it would

the merit

rational
to

alternative to the mechanical

all the
same

mythol
are were

according

which the

atoms

in the

universe

to-day preciselyin
on

condition

in which which

they

the

day

of

creation,a mythology empirical facts

of

is forced

to

regard
as

all the

spontaneity and
truth.

novelty

or illusory,

devoid of the

of substantial

The
the

doctrine

primacy Just
as

of chance law is
a

naturallysuggests
chance
habit
so

primacy

of mind. The

is

matter

inert mind.

principallaw

of mind

is that ideas

literally spread
and
more

themselves
or

continuously and
that

become
who

more

general
of any

so inclusive,

people

form

communities When

sort

develop general ideas

in

common.

this continuous

becomes reaching-out of feeling

nur

turing love, such, spring

or

e.g., which for

parents

have
we

for

their

off

thinkers

their

ideas,

have

creative

evolution.

James
between

and

Royce

have

called of

attention

to

the

similarity
and
N

Peirce's the

doctrine

tychistic-agapism (chance
of

love)
both
account
me

and

creative

evolution
to restore

Bergson.

But in
seems

while their
to

philosophiesaim
of the nature

life and

growth

of

things,Peirce's approach
to

to have

marked

advantages, owing

its

being

in closer

xiv

INTRODUCTION

touch

with
on

modern the

physics. Bergson's procedure

that
as

is

largely^ explain

based
certain

contention

mechanics the

cannot

empirical facts,such
eye
one

supposed identity of scallop.

But the fact

the vertebrate here is may

and of
a

the eye certain

of the

merely

resemblance

of pattern, which
of principles
no con

well be

explained by

the mechanical
account

vergent evolution.
of the of possibility

Peirce's

involves

rejection

mechanical

explanations. Indeed, by
of mechanics he is enabled
to

carrying chance
elaborate
a

into the laws

positiveand highly suggestivetheory

facts of and plasticity and

of proto Instead

plasm
of

to

explain the

habit.*
a

postulating with
of

Spencer

Bergson
for

continuous

growth
in

Peirce diversity, in

allows

growth

of habits both

and diversity

uniformity.
all

The

Spencerian mechanical
mere

philosophy
There
can

reduces be
no can

to diversity

spatialdifferences.
new

substantial

novelty; only
The

forms evolution of

or

combinations

arise in time. intended

to

creative the

of

Bergson though taneityis

as

support
in
to

claims

spon

still like the from

Spencerian
the

assuming
the

all evolution Peirce

proceeding
for

simple

complex.

allows

diversityand
or

as specificity

part of the original

in the diminish and
course

character time Mind may

endowment in
some

of

things,which
respects and

of

increase

in others. also of

acquires the

habit

both

of may

taking on,
thus

lay

ing aside,habits.
or

Evolution well Peirce

as a

lead to homogeneity

uniformity as
Not

to

greater heterogeneity.
even

only

has

greater regard than

Bergson
he

for the

actual

diversityand

spontaneity of things,but
any

is in

much

better position than

*

other

modern

phi-

Pp. 249 ft.

INTRODUCTION

xv

losopher to explainthe order

This he

and the

coherence medieval

of the world.

effects

by uniting
with

regard

for

the

of universals reality

the modern

scientific use
war

of the the

concept of continuity. The

unfortunate
and

between

pioneers of

modern of

science

the adherents

of the scho
one

lastic doctrine

substantial
of human nominalism
extreme

forms,

has

been

of

the

great misfortunes
lute atomism and

thought, in
the

that it made of

abso

professed creed

physi- \
on

cal science.
the

Now,

nominalism, the
no room

insistence

of the particular7 leaves reality It

for the the

genuine
to

realityof law.

leaves, as
the
is

Hume

had
can

courage

admit, nothing whereby future;

From and
use so a

present
as

determine
as

thej
not.

that

anything

likely to happen
modern

such

chaotic

world, the procedure of

has
saved
us no

natural

mathematical of the
more so

science

by the persistent
one

of continuity; and principle

has

indicated

this
to do

clearly than

Peirce

who

was

uniquely qualified
of Duns Scotus

by being a

close student

both

and

of modern

scientific methods.
the

It is instructive in this respect to contrast

views

of his

Peirce and indebtedness indebted

The

James.

James,

who

so

generouslyindicated
was

to Peirce

for his

pragmatism,

also

largely

to Peirce

for his doctrine

of radical the

empiricism.5

latter

doctrine

seeks

to

rescue

continuity and empiri

a

of experience from fluidity cism

or

the

traditional British
resolved

nominalism,which
of

had

everything into
It is

number

mutually exclusive
while in his

mental

states.

curious,

however,that
use

psychology James made

could
pp.

extensive

of the

of continuity, he principle
0

not

free himself

James, Pluralistic Universe,

398-400.

xvi

INTRODUCTION

from
extreme
extreme

British

nominalism

in

his

philosophy

"

witness
the

the

individualism

of his social of the

philosophy or

equally
of

anthropomorphism suggestions as
been
to

his
use

religion. Certain
of

Peirce's

continuity in
in his the
we can

social of

philosophy have
social but

developed by Royce
and the worked
nature
out

theory

consciousness remains
own

of and

community;6
but

much

to be
"

repeat
over

Peirce's this

hope:
and

May
have

some

future leisure
to

student

go

ground again

the

give his results

to the world."

It is well included with the

to

note, however, that after writing the papers

Peirce
raised.
on

in this volume issues in the here

continued This he

to
most

be

occupied

significantly
to

indicated Baldwin's In these

articles

logicaltopics contributed

Dictionary of Philosophy.7
articles it is

bearing of the naturallythe logical

of tychism (chance),synechism (continuity), and principles

agapism (love) that minology,

than sized. for the almost

is stressed.
to

To

use

the

Kantian

ter

native

Peirce, the

regulative rather

constitutive

aspect of these
of chance
a

principlesis empha only

from method what the of it
was

Thus

the doctrine

is not release also

The is
a

James' radical
"

empiricism,

blind

of necessity
fi

block
in Good

universe,"but
and

keep-

Royce, Studies
Vol.
2.

Evil, and

Problem

oj Christianity,
to

esp.

Baldwin

(Mental

Development)

heavily indebted
of

Royce
work

in this respect.
7

These
on

articles which

are

by-products
was

or

fragments
for
many

comprehensive
For the

on

Logic
this

Peirce

engaged
no

years.
or

writing
has

of

book,

Royce
be

declared,

greater mind

greater
to

erudition been

appeared
and will

in America. doubtless the

Only

several with

chapters
other Peirce's

seem

have

finished,
manu

included edition

hitherto

unpublished
is
now

of complete prepared by Harvard University.

scripts in

writings that

being

INTRODUCTION

xvii

ing

open

possibleexplanation of
an

the them

genesis of

the

laws
with

of nature

and

of interpretation
so probability,

in accordance

the theorems
as

of

fruitful in physical science

doctrine chance the of love is not

well

as

in

life. So the practical how

only a cosmologic one, showing

order
or or

feeling generates
of

rational

diversitythrough
it also

habit

generality
of truth in any of
co

but continuity,

gives us
the

the
test

meaning
as

social

terms, in showing that

true

to

whether

proposition is

postulatesan
its

indefinite

number

operating investigators.On
love

side the logical the

doctrine

of

(agapism)
have
even

also
a

recognized

important fact
which makes
us

that

generalideas
their nature

certain attraction
we

divine their

though
before

cannot

clearlydetermine

precise meaning
quences.

developing their possible conse

Of the doctrine of continuitywe

are

told

expressly

that

"synechism
doctrine.

is
a

not

an

ultimate

absolute

metaphysical

It is

regulative principleof logic," seeking the

diverse
.cases

in identity thre^d_of that this

or

and

avoiding hypotheses

that of such
or

is ultimate

and, therefore,inexplicable.
are:

(Examples

hypotheses
uniform of laws

the existence

of abso

lutelyaccurate
absolute

of nature, the

eternityand
be sure, of the upon the in

likeness

all atoms, that there it is

a

etc.)
is
an

To

synechist cannot

deny

element

or explicable ultimate,since

directlyforced
of
a

him. The
to

But

he cannot
of

regard
an

it

as

source

explanation.
on

assumption
science.

is inexplicability form under of which

barrier alone

the road
can

"The

anything
is the
same

be

understood

is the form
8

which generality

thing

Baldwin's

Dictionary,article Synechism.

xviii

INTRODUCTION

as

continuity."9
is

This

insistence

on

the with
to
a

generality
due

of

form intelligible
on

perfectlyconsistent

emphases
realist

the

which realityof the individual,

an

Scotist in

connotes

element
means

of will

or

but will-resistence,
or

logical
any But of

procedure

that the test of the truth

us

of falsity

proposition
as a no

refers

to

particularperceptions.10
can

multitude

of individuals

exhaust

the meaning
relations

continuum, which
the

includes
of
a

also

organizing
cannot

of
any

order,

full meaning but reaction,

concept
to be

be
in the

in
manner

individual in which the

is rather

sought
to

all such

reactions contribute
of

the whole

development of evolutionary
that

concrete

reasonableness

the

process.

In

scientific procedure this

means

integrity
it is

of belief in the condition

general is

more

important than, because

true beliefs. of,particular

II This

insistence

on

the

used continuityso effectually

and of mathematical from that

as

heuristic

principle in

natural

science,
of his

the pragmatism distinguishes follower

Peirce
has

James.

Prof. the

Dewey

developed this point

essay; of but in view

in authoritatively the

supplementary
to the sources

of

generalignorance as
this incurious

pragmatism which
on

prevailsin

age,

some

remarks

the actual

historical originof pragmatism may There

can

be in order.
was

be littledoubt

that Peirce

led to the formu

lation of the

of pragmatism through principle

the influence

10

Baldwin's
a

Dictionary, art.

Individual: will be
a

"

Everything

whose

identity

consists in

continuity of reactions

single logical individual."

INTRODUCTION

xix

of Chauncey

Wright.11 Wright
creative
was

who

had
in

first hand

ac

quaintance with

scientific work
led

mathematics,
and
Bain This
use con

and botany )hysics,

to reflect
on

by

the

study

of Mill

the characteristics of scientific method.

to

reflection led him

draw

distinction
men

between

the

of

popular scientific material, by

struct
use a

like Spencer, to

myth by
of

or men

picture of
like Newton

the
as

world,
means

and for
as a

the

scientific

of laws

extending our general fact

What

knowledge
had

phenomena.

Gravitation

interested metaphysicians long before Newton's mathematical

known

Newton.

made
of
a

contribution
law which

scientific was
has enabled

the formulation
us

to to

deduce

all

the then
or

facts of the solar system

more

and of

anticipate
would of the

predict many
otherwise

facts the

existence
the

which

not

be

even

suspected, e.g.,

existence the

planet Neptune. ciples of

the
means

Wright insists, therefore,that

mathematical which
nature

prin
are

modern

and is

physical

science

through

that scientific discovered,

11

The

personal relations
Peirce in
a

between Mrs. have

Peirce

and

Wright
1857
when
on

were

thus

de

scribed Vol. the

by
p.

letter to
must

Ladd-Franklin been
a

(Journal of Philosophy
1
first made level
pene

13,

719):
of
was
"

"It

about mind

acquaintance
S. Mill. He

Chauncey
a

Wright,

about He

the
a

of

J.

thorough
and I used
or

mathematician.
to

had
very many

most

trating intellect.
sixties I
was

He

have

long and daily for

I

lively and
years.

close

disputations lasting
started
a

two

three

hours 'The

In
"

the

little club and

called

Metaphysical
was

Club.'

Wright
were name

the

strongest member
William of doctrine

probably
and
saw

next.
was

"

Then that be

there the added and

"

Frank and

Abbott,
the

James

others." the

"It

there

pragmatism
to

light." It might
of accidents that

that cosmic know

Peirce's

tychism
a

is indebted which
to
no

Wright's doctrine
is bound of knowledge
"

weather," ing
nature

doctrine from

maintained
moment

against LaPlace
to

mind

moment

encounter

genuine novelty
us

in phenomena, See

which

amount

would

enable

to

foresee. Hist,

Wright's

Philosophical Discussions

1876, also

Cambridge

of

American

Literature,Vol. 3, p. 234.

XX

INTRODUCTION

laws

are

the

finders This

rather

than

merely
the

the

summaries

of

factual tist for of

as

truths.

conception of

experimental scien

translatinggeneral propositions into prescriptions experimental truths,is

The of
a

attainingnew
Peirce's

the

startingpoint
in found which
12

pragmatism.
the

latter

is embodied is to be

the in the

principlethat
"all the

meaning

concept

conceivable
or

experimental phenomena
of the concept of could the

affirmation
In

denial

imply."

the

earlier

statement

pragmatic

maxim,13

Peirce from maxim

as

emphasized

the consequences
or

for conduct
an

that follow the stoical

to

the acceptance that the end

at not

of rejection
man

idea; but
did not

of

is action

appeal

him

much

sixtyas
follow like

it did at

thirty.1*Naturally
of

also Peirce Wm.

a

could

the

development
all modern

pragmatism by

James

who,

almost and

psychologists,was emphasized

thorough
sensible

nominalist

always
seemed
to

particular
such
em-

experience.15 It

Peirce

that

12

Monist, Vol. 15,

This "To is
no

p.

180.

13 14

volume,
say

pp.
we
as

43-45. live for

a

that

the

sake

of

action

would

be

to

say p.

that 175.

there
15

such letter

thing
to

rational

purport."
and the

Monist, Vol. XV, give him

on

The

Mrs.

Ladd-Franklin
to

quoted
anxious
to

before, explains why

credit when

James, though always loyal

ever

Peirce

possible, could
incidental
"

not

understand
on

latter's lectures

pragmatism.
that
can

Peirce's

judgments

others
so

is worth with
mean as

quoting
that.

here:

Modern

psycholoigsts anything
seems
as so

are

soaked does
not

sensationalism How who in But

"

they I,
to

cannot

understand

that

whom Truth

nothing
and

thoroughly

real

generals, and
powers

regards world,
curious

Justice

the literally

most

powerful
with

the the
men

expect to be understood

by the thoroughgoing
idealists tainted between in Absolute his World
on

Wundtian?

thing is to
like

see

absolute hover
as

this disease, Idealism and the and

or

who,

John

Dewey,

Sensationalism.
are ex

Royce's tremely

opinions
near

developed
His

Individualism elements of

to

mine.

insistence

purpose

in

intellectual

concepts

is essentiallythe

pragmatic position."

INTRODUCTION

xxi

phasis
of had

on

particularexperiences endangered
in the hands of
men

the

principle

continuitywhich
reformed
to

like Weierstrass
this
a reason

modern
own

mathematics. doctrine

For

he

began

call his name,

pragmaticism,
save

sufficiently kidnappers
the is

unattractive and from

he

thought, to
He never, that the

it from

popularity.

however, abandoned meaning

of
an

principleof pragmatism,
clarified mental

idea

(because constituted)by
consequences. of the idea
to

its conceivable
we

experi

Indeed,
of

if

want

to

clarify the
the prag

meaning
matic

pragmatism,
will be the

let

us

apply

test

it.

What

effect of

accepting it?
ideas
or

Obviously
habits of

it will

be

to

develop

certain

general

looking at things. pragmatism

The
an

Peirce's lectual found

has, therefore,a
of
an

decidedly
or

intel

cast.

meaning
intuition

idea

proposition is
out

not

by

of it but

by working
does
not

its im

plications.

It

admits
can

that have

thought
no

constitute without

reality. Categories
action
an or

concrete

being
is is
none
"

immediate

feeling.

But

thought

the less

essential

ingredientof reality;thought
the
to

the

melody Prag
rational
not
on

running through

succession

of

our

sensations."

matism, according
purport,
not

Peirce, seeks quality.

to

define

the

the
our

sensuous

It is interested

in
our

the effect of

practicaloccupations *or desires

function of ideas in
a as

ideas, but
Whether
a

in
man

the

guides
certain

action. pf^ may

as

is to pay
a

damages
in the

lawsuit

depend,

in

fact,on
cause.

term

Aristotelian logicsuch

proximate

It is of interest to observe

that

though Peirce

is

an

ardent makes

admirer

of Darwin's

method,

his

scientific caution

xxii

INTRODUCTION

him

refuse

to

apply
of

the

analogy
the

of

biologicnatural
and

selec

tion to the
manner

realm

ideas, in

wholesale

uncritical
selec

that has may well

become lately
the

fashionable.
of views

Natural

tion

favor

triumph
But

which

directly
entertain

influence

biologicsurvival.
may

the

pleasure of
the

ing congenial illusions resultingfrom appeals

may their

overbalance

inconvenience rhetorical

deceptive character.

Thus

long prevail over

Ill

scientific evidence.

Peirce tributions

preferred to
to

call himself
so

and logician, his

most

his

con

logic have

far For
a

proved

generally

recognized achievement.
contributions
we

right perspective of these

with the

may

well

begin

observation
cultivated that since

that
as

though

few

branches
as

of philosophy have
was

been
to

continuously
science time of

logic,Kant
made The
no reason

able

affirm

the the

logichad

substantial
for

progress

of Aristotle.

this is that
on

Aristotle's scientific
a

the logic of classes, was logic,

based

his

own

procedure
method
cedure.
so

as

a as

and zoologist,

is still in

essence

valid pro

far

classification is part of all rational

we come

But of

when

to

describe
cannot

the
cast

mathematical
it into in such nil the the
com

method

physical science, we
form without

Aristotelian

involving ourselves
to

plicated artificialities as
of Aristotle's
us

reduce

almost

to

value

logicas

an

organon. from

Aristotle's
two

logicenables
But the has

to make

singleinference
of
a

premises.

vast

multitude
from the need

theorems

that modern
as

mathematics
nature

derived shows

few of

premises

to

the

of.

number,

a logicor formulating theory of

inference

INTRODUCTION

xxiii

that shall
tice To tive of
as

correspondto

the

modern,
to

more

complicated, prac

Aristotle's logicdid
this

simple classificatory zoology. require the highestconstruc

an

do

would effectively

logicalgenius, togetherwith
of the

intimate

knowledge
sciences.

the methods

great variety of modern

case a as

This

is in the nature

of the

very

rare

combination, examining

since great investigators are

their
matter
own

not
are

critical in

procedure
which

as

they

in

examining the subject Hence,

describe

is their

primary scientific interest.

come

when their

like Poincare great investigators

own

to

work, they

fall back

on

the uncritical assumptions learned

in their school

of the

traditional

logicwhich
"

they

days.

Moreover,

For in

the

last three
the

centuries
or field,

thought
otherwise been
The

has been conducted

in the filled

in laboratories,

face of the
men

facts,while

chairs

of

logic have

by

who

breathe the

the air of the seminary." 16 but qualifications,

left him
no

great Leibnitz

had

here, as

else

where,

his

worldly occupations

opportunity
was

except for very fragmentarycontributions.

the middle Boole
and of the

It

not

until

igth century

that

two

mathematicians,
for
a more

DeMorgan,

laid the foundations

gen

eralized logic. Boole

or

developeda general logical algorithm

called attention
the
to

while DeMorgan calculus,

non-syllogis
logicof

tic inference and

to especially

importance

of the

relations.
the

Peirce's great achievement and

to

is to have

recognized
de

of both possibilities
them

have

generalized and

veloped
The

into
and his
16

general theory of scientific inference.

his achievement of

extent

thoroughnessof
fragmentary
Baldwin's

has
a

been rather

obscured

by

way

writingand by
Method.

Dictionary,art.

xxiv

/INTRODUCTION

unwieldy symbolism.
such
as

modern Still,

mathematical

logic,
is but
a

that of Russell's of Peirce's

Principles of Mathematics, logic of relatives.

work is here.

development
This
account

phase

of Peirce's of

highly
Such

technical
an

and

an

of it is out in Lewis'

place

account

will

be

found

Survey of Symbolic Logic.17

the reader that the

I refer to

it here the

only

to

remind

Illustrations

of
a

Logic of

the of

Sciences

(Part

I of this work

volume)

have

background

patient detailed

which

is still

being

developed to-day. Symbolic logic has

the Their

been
old

held

in rather

low in

esteem

by

followers
stated with

of the

classical methods
it has of
an

philosophy.
that it is and is

objection to
the minutiae
a

been

mainly

concerned of Now
no

artificial

language

value it should

as

guide

to

the

interpretationof reality.
that retard

be

readilyadmitted
apt
Yet
to

preoccupation with
the
no

symbolic logic

is rather

irresponsible
means

of philosophicfancy. flight
an

this is

by

always
those

evil.

on By insisting

an

accuracy and

that is

painful to

impatient to

obtain

sweeping

comforting,though hasty,
to
remove

conclusions, symbolic logicis

great scandal
of traditional results

well calculated
"

the

philosophy

the claim is the

of abso

lutelycertain
conflict of from make of the
our

in fields where scandalous

there

greatest

opinion.

This

situation

arises in part
not

fact that in

popular expositionwe

do

have

to

premises

or

hence assumptions explicit;

all sorts
as

dubious
17

prejudices are
anticipatedthe
did the
not most most

implicitly appealed
important
out

to

abso-

"Peirca
when clue he
to

procedures of his Again and

in the

successors
one

even

work

them,

himself.

again

finds

the

recent

developments
p. 79.

writings of

Peirce,"

Lewis'

Survey

of Symbolic

Logic,

INTRODUCTION

xxv

lutely necessary
terms

principles. Also, by
a

the

use one

of

popular

which
one

have

variety of meanings, another, so

derived and
not

easily slides improbable

truisms.

from

meaning
are

to

that

the most

conclusions

thus

from

seeming

By
tech

making assumptions
nical with the
reason

rules

and explicit, wide

by using
of

terms

that

do

drag

penumbras

meaning

them,

the method

of

symbolic logicmay

cruellyreduce
But there is
no

sweeping pretensions of philosophy.

for

supposing
the way
to

that

pretentiousness rather
Man range the

than

humility is
to

philosophicsalvation.
universe bound

is bound of his of

speculate about
but such he

the

beyond
to

the

knowledge, settingup
There

is not

indulge

vanity

speculationsas
no reason

absolutelycertain
for

dogmas.
greater
to

is, however,
accuracy truth. has of

denying

that
us

rigor and
cern new

expositioncan
mathematics

reallyhelp
since

dis and

Modern

Gauss

Weierstrass
increased

actuallybeen
makes
no

led to greater fruitfulness such

by
old sub Eu

rigor which

procedure

as

the The old

proofs

of

Taylor's theorem
of

longer possible.
for the up any

stitution clidean of

rigorous analytic procedures

on

proofs based
Nor Where

has opened intuition, this been without like the

now

vast

fields
on

geometry.

has

effect

philosophy. tinuitywere
sions
use

formerly concepts
awe or

and infinity
recurrent

con occa

objects of gaping

for intellectual

violence/8 we
Peirce and for

are

beginning
accurate amount

to

them,

thanks
senses.

to

Royce,

in

and of

definable
a

Consider,
which
Peirce

instance,the

priorinonsense
18

eliminates

by pointing out
the infinite
as

Hans

Breitmann

is symbolic of those

who

"

solved

one

eternal

sphere."

xxvi

INTRODUCTION

that

the

applicationof
removes so

the concept the

of

continuityto

a a a

span
first

of consciousness
or

necessityfor assuming
the range of vision
on

last moment;

likewise has
no

large
the

unobstructed invisible. structive

to Kant

ground
These

line between
will be

the visible and

found

considerations
force of the old

utterly de (fundamental
time and

of the and

arguments

others) as

to the

necessary
soon

of infinity

space. the which threads the

more

Similar

enlightenment is
use

likelyto

result from

careful
are

of

terms

like relative in

and but

absolute,
Ariadne of

bones

of contention

philosophy

of

exploration in symbolism
clear of

theoretical mathematics.

physics, because
Other the

definite made

important hypothetical
in

truths

by symbolic logic is propositionsand

be deduced

character

of universal
no no

the

consequent
from

sight that
alone, since
establish There which that
an

particularscan
number of

universals

hypotheses can

without

given data

fact. existing
an even more

is, however,

positive direction

in

symbolic logicserves
is in

the interest of the

nature

philosophy, and symbols

and
on

throwing lighton
of

of

the relation dismissed

c

meaning.
to

Philosophers have
the
nature
a

light-heartedly

questions as
'

of

significant signs as
of

merely

(most fatal word!)

paper
on

matter

language.

But for

Peirce

in the

Man's endeavors This is

Glassy [Shakespearian
to

Mirror-Like]
nature
as

Essence,

exhibit

man's

whole with his of

on

symbolic.19
which

closely connected symbols

2, pp. as

doctrine logical
19

regards signs or

one

See

Journal of

of Speculative Philosophy, Vol.

i55-i57, American

article

A of

New Arts

List and

Categories in
7,

the

Proceedings of the
and

Academy
Baldwin's

Sciences, Vol.

287-298

article

on

Sign, in

Dictionary.

INTRODUCTION

xxrii

the

fundamental and

categories or things are

the his

aspects

of

the

universe

(Thoughts
of Peirce

other

two).

Independently
great and
life

but

in line with

thought
shown

another

thinker,Santayana, neglected
of
man

has

that the whole

that is bound

up

with the institutions of civilization,

is concerned It is not

with

symbols.
that, since
Boole
with the and sym

altogether accidental
those who have

DeMorgan,

occupied themselves
to

bolic logic have

of

felt called upon

reason

deal

with

problem
when
a

The probability.
the

is indicated

by

Peirce

he way false the

formulates
as

problem

of

probable inference

in such
or

to

make

the old classic logicof absolutely true

of (i.e., whose This values
i

case a limiting conclusions,

and

o) of

logicof probable inference

between the
two

values

range

all the way is itself

these

two

limits.

technical

device

result of applying the principleof continuity to throw

hitherto distinct types of

reasoning into the

same

class.

The

result is the

significant. philosophically
classical logic spoke
of

Where

major

and

minor dif

premises
ference the All The

without

establishingany
the two, Peirce draws the

really important
a

between

distinction
our

between

premises reasoning

and

guiding principleof
some

argument.
to

is from

concrete

situation
are

another.

which propositions
sense

represent the first

But

the

premises

in the strict conclusions

of the word. these in

that certain the feeling is conditioned

follow from

premises
some

by

an

implicitor
connects

belief explicit

guiding principlewhich
When
in all of the such
cases a

the

premises

and

the conclusions.
conclusions

leading principleresults
true

in true

of

premises, we

have

logicaldeduction

orthodox

xxviii

INTRODUCTION

type.
clusion

If,however, such

principle brings about proportion of

true
we

con

only

in

certain

cases, then

have

probability.
This of true
to

reduction

of

probabilityto
a

the

relative

frequency suggested
uses

propositionsin

class of

was propositions,

Peirce

by
some

Venn's truths

Logic of Chance.
of

Peirce

it to

establish

greatest importance to logic and

philosophy.
He eliminates made
to

the

difficulties of
measure

the

old of

conceptualist
our

view, which
and

probabilitya
admit that

ignorance
of
our

yet had

almost

all fruitfulness
on

and practical of

scientific

reasoning depended
we

the theorems

probability. How
our

could

safely predictphenomena

by

measuring

ignorance?
reduced
a

Probabilitybeing
quency of
a

to

matter
or

of the relative fre genus, it

class

in

larger class

becomes,

strictly to singlecases speaking,inapplicable

A

by

themselves.

singlepenny

will fall head

or

it will fall tail every

not

time;
The in

to-morrow

it will
or

rain, or
any

it will

rain
means

at

all.

probabilityof "
the
as

other

fraction
we

nothing

singlecase.

It is

only because
a

feel the

singleevent
repeats
a

representative of
we

class,as

something
the

which

that itself,

of speak elliptically

probability of

single event.

Hence

follows
to

the

important corollarythat
this
or

reasoning with respect

rangement
were as

the

probabilityof
be valid

that

ar

of the universe

would

only if universes

blackberries. plentiful as
useful
at

To

be

all,theories they employ

seek
a

must
to

be

simpler

than

the it is

complex facts
often convenient

which
to

explain. Hence,

principleof certaintywhere

INTRODUCTION

xxix

the

facts justifyonly
such
cases

principleof
we

some

degree
in

of

proba

bility. In
any
on

must

be

cautious

accepting
also such

extreme

consequence

of these

and principles,

be
ex

guard against apparent

consequences. should

refutations

based

on

treme

Finally I theory of

like to emphasize the value

for
a

of Peirce's
To the

inference that
as

philosophy of
of
no

civilization. because and all

old argument

logicis
to

importance

people
not

learn to reason,

walk, by

instinct and admits

20

habit that
"

by

Peirce scientific instruction,

human the

knowledge

up of

to
our

the

of highest flights animal

science

is but But

development logicalrules

inborn
first felt

instincts."

though
into and

are

implicitly, bringing
the process old of of

them

explicitconsciousness
thus makes situations.
an

helps

analysis

the recognition of possible This

as

in novel principles such the

increases

our

range

to adaptability

extent

to
or

justifya general
habit and

distinction who

between
can

slave of routine and control

the freeman of
a

anticipate

nature

through knowledge
method of science
as

Peirce's principles. method of attain

analysis of

the

of ing stability

beliefs with

all possible by free inquiry inviting the methods of iteration

one

doubt, in

contrast

("will
best

to

believe ") and

ductions
to to
a

social

authority,is
of liberal
or

of

the

intro

theory
of of from

Hellenic

as civilization,

opposed
roots

those force ideas

despotic societies. habit,but

it cannot

Authority has
prevent
new

its and

in the

unorthodox authoritative

arising;and
men are own

in the

effort to far
more

defend

social views

apt

to

be

ruth

less than

in

defending
20

their
in

personal convictions.
181.

Studies

Logic, p.

xxx

INTRODUCTION

IV Not

only
but

the the

pragmatism
idealism of
are

and

the

radical empiricism of
and the
more

James,
movement

Royce

recent

of neo-realism
seem as

largelyindebted
the
same

to

Peirce.

It may claimed and

some

strange that
of both
as

thinker idealism

should and

be

foster-father may But take this it

recent

realism,
of
con

another

sign

of his lack is

sistency.

seeming strangeness
the antithesis If

really due
realism
we

to

the looseness idealism has

with

which

between
idealism

and

generallybeen put.
doctrine of

by

denote

the nominalistic
not
an

Berkeley,then
in

Peirce
a

is

clearly

and idealist;

his work

logic as him)

study

of types

of for

order
a

(in

which

Royce
But
"

followed

is fundamental
means

logical realism.
doctrine mental that

if idealism
or

the
are

old
not

Platonic

ideas," genera,
of

forms

merely
not

but the real conditions

Peirce
was

we existence,

need

wonder

that

both Peirce

idealist and is

realist.
use

Royce's indebtedness
of modern mathematical of the

to

principallyin the
as

material, such
of

the

recent

de

velopment
throw
as

concepts

infinityand

to continuity,

light on
of

fundamental the individual

questions of philosophy, such

to

relation

God

or

the

Universe. had

At

the end

of the

nineteenth the

century mathematics

almost

disappeared
Introduction Law

from
to

repertory of philosophy (cf.Kiilpe's

and Peirce's which essay
on

Philosophy),
a new

the
in

of

Mind and

opened
the

way

Royce

followed

his World

Individual, to the great surpriseof his

In his his Problem

idealistic brethren. has

also

of ChristianityRoyce
to

indicated

indebtedness

Peirce

for his

doc-

INTRODUCTION

xxxi

trine of social

consciousness,the
of

mind

of may

the be

community,
that of
a

and
deal
men

the process
of

interpretation.It
the such
note

great
two

the similarity between

to
common

thoughts
as

these

is due

sources, it is well
to

the works
not

of Kant in his

and

but Schelling;

that

only

later writings but

also in his lectures and

to Peirce's

seminars

Royce

continuallyreferred
The

views.
movement

ground

for

the neo-realist

in

American
work
to which

philosophy was
of Russell and

largelyprepared by by
the utilization The

the mathematical

of mathematics

Royce based,
the

was as

led

by

Peirce. has and

logic of
on a

Mr.

Russell

is of the

he himself of Peirce
of Peano

pointed out,
Peano. of In

combination

work

this combination

notation

has

proved
can

greater technical
obtained
Mrs.

fluency,
Peirce's

but all of Peano's method lin.

But
as

results

also be

by

developed by Schroeder

and

Ladd-Frank-

Peirce's influence philosophically

not
a

is far greater in that it

that logic is insisting is not concerned with

branch
mental

of

psychology,
processes, the that laws

merely
To the

but of

with

objective relations.
represent "the
are
"

view

that

logic

necessities of
"

thought,"

propositions
answers:

true

because

we

can

not

help thinkingso," he

Exact
state

logicwill
of

say

from that C's followinglogically

no

is

things which
"The of

impotence

of

thought

alone

can one

bring about."21
of fact and
not

question of validityis purely

...

thinking.
the

It is not
are

in the least the

question whether, when mind,

21

premises
to

accepted by
conclusion

the also.

we

feel

an

impulse
p.

accept

the

Monist,

Vol.

7,

27.

Cf. Journal

of 58,

Speculative Philosophy,
pp.

Vol. 2, p. 207 ; Popular Science

Monthly,

Vol.

305-306.

xxxii

INTRODUCTION

The

true to
we

conclusion

would the

remain

true
one

if would
to

we

had remain

no

im false

pulse

accept it,and
could
not

false

though
Since almost

resist the Locke

tendency

believe

in it." 22 has
one

the

days

of

modern

philosophy
that

been
must

dominated entirely the of process of

by

the

assumption
one can

study
nature

knowing

before

find out

the

things known;

in other

words, that psychology is

The of of result of this has been

the central
an

philosophicscience. complete
Nor did identification the influence

almost

philosophy with mental biologicstudies

the belief
"

science. middle banal of

of

the

the

nineteenth of

century

shake

in that proper of in

dictum of

philosophic mediocrity:
is man." the The
recent

The

study

mankind

renaissance of

logicalstudies,and
our own

remarkable
us

progress that while

physics
Lockian

day bid brought

fair to remind
some

the
more

way
way

has of

gains to philosophy,the
is

ancient

philosophy
lose have

by

no

means

exhausted the

of

promise. play.

Man Those
to

cannot

his

interest

in

great cosmic
fruitful

who

faith in the ancient the doors Charles

can

and

approach physics

philosophy through
the

of mathematics

and

will find tions. vexed

writings of
such of
an

S. Peirce

full of sugges

That

approach

also throw
no assurance

lighton
to

the those

problem
with

knowledge
and

needs

acquainted

Plato

Aristotle.
doctrine of

But ideal

I may
as

conclude
to

by referringto

Peirce's

opposed

sensible experiment,23 and

22 23

to his treatment

of the

question

This

vol., p. 15.
for
a

Suggestive (p. 46)

not
"

theory of the metaphysics of fictions is the question of what

not
a

sugges

tion

that

the

would

occur

under

circumstances

whjich do
most not

actually arise, is

question
This

of

fact, but

only of the is, of

course,

perspicuous arrangement merely subjective.

of

them."

arrangement

INTRODUCTION

xxxiii

how

it

is

that

in

spite

of

an

infinity
make
so

of

possible

hypotheses,
induc

mankind

has

managed
for

to

many

successful

tions.2*

And

the

bearing following
affairs

of

mathematical

studies

on

the

wisdom

of

life,
"

the

is

certainly
upon could

worth

serious

re

flection:

All

human

rest

probabilities.
be

If

man

were

immortal

[on
when

earth]

he

perfectly
he
had

sure

of

seeing

the

day
his

everything
He
would

in

which

trusted

should

betray
great
In

trust.

break

down,
as

at

last,

as

every

fortune,

as

every

dynasty,
have death."

every

civilization

does.

place
death of

of

this

we

The

recognition
the

that

the

the

individual

does

not

destroy

logical
the

meaning
ideal of
an

of

his

utterances,

that

this

meaning
us

involves

unlimited

community,

carries

into

the

heart

of

pure

religion.

24

Pp.

128-129,

cf.

Monist,

Vol.

7,

p.

206,

and

Logical

Studies,

pp.

175

ff.

CHANCE,

LOVE,
PROEM

AND

LOGIC

THE

RULES

OF

PHILOSOPHY1

DESCARTES

is of

the

father
"

of that

modern which which

philosophy, principally
it

and

the

spirit guishes
be

Cartesianism the

distin may

it from

scholasticism
stated
as

displaced

"

compendiously
1.

follows:
must
never

It

teaches whereas

that

philosophy
had

begin

with

universal funda

doubt;
mentals.
2.

scholasticism

questioned

It

teaches

that

the

ultimate

test

of

certainty

is to

be

found had

in the rested

individual
on

consciousness;
of sages

whereas and of

scholasticism the

the

testimony

Catholic

Church.
3.

The

multiform

argumentation
of

of

the

middle

ages

is

replaced
upon
4. to

by

single thread premises.

had its

inference

depending

often

inconspicuous
Scholasticism
all

mysteries
But

of

faith, but
are

undertook
many but

explain

created
not

things. only
unless
as an

there
not

facts
renders them

which

Cartesianism

does
to

explain
"

absolutely inexplicable,
"

say

that

God

makes

so

is to some, have

be

regarded
or

explanation.
respects,
most

In

all in

of

these

modern without

philoso wishing
140.

phers
1

been,
the Journal

effect,Cartesians.
of Speculative

Now

From

Philosophy,

vol.

2,

p.

PROEM

to

return

to

scholasticism,
modern

it

seems

to to

me

that upon

modern
a

science

and

logic require
from this. with

us

stand

very

different
1.

platform
cannot

We

begin

complete doubt.
we

We have

must

begin
we

with
enter not

all the upon

to

prejudices
the

which

actually
These

when

study

of
a

philosophy. maxim,
can

prejudices are things

Hence
not

be

dispelledby
occur

for

they

are

which this real will

it does initial

not

to

us

be

questioned.

skepticism will
and
no one

be

mere

and self-deception,
the Cartesian

doubt;
ever

who until he he
as

follows has has

method

be

satisfied which
a

formally given
to

recovered It

all those

beliefs useless in order upon of his

a

in form

up.

is,therefore,as
Pole
down would

preliminary
to

going

the

North

be

get

to

Constantinople by coming
A person
to

regularly
course

meridian.

may, doubt

it is true, in the what because of the he

studies,find
in that

reason

began by
a

be

lieving;but
reason

case

he
on

doubts
account

he has Cartesian what

positive
maxim.

for
us

it,and
pretend

not

Let doubt
2.

not

to

doubt

in

philosophy

we

do

not

in The

our

hearts. formalism
to

same

appears
"

in the Cartesian I
am

criterion,

which

amounts

this:
were

Whatever

clearly convinced
I should
test

of, is true."
with But

If I

reallyconvinced,
should

have

done

reasoning
then
to make

and

require

no

of

certainty.
of truth has

singleindividuals
The result

absolute
is that

judges

is most reached

pernicious.
a

metaphysics
of the

pitch of certainty far beyond

"

that

physical
else.
a

sciences;
sciences

only they
men

can

agree
to

upon

nothing
when

In

in which

come

agreement,

theory

PROEM

has this of left

been

broached

it is considered After

to

be

on

probation
the

until

agreement

is reached.

it is

reached,
there
cannot

question
is
no one

certainty
who
to

becomes
it. the

an

idle

one,

because

doubts
attain

We

individually

reasonably
we

hope
we can

ultimate

philosophy

which

pursue; of

only

seek

it, therefore, for the

if

community
minds

philoso carefully |
to create

phers.
examine

Hence,
a

disciplined
refuse
of
to

and

candid

theory
the
mind

and

accept
of the

it,this ought
the

doubts
3. its ises

in

the
to to

author imitate

theory

himself.

Philosophy
so

ought
far be
as

successful
from

sciences
prem

in

methods,
which
to
can

proceed
to

only

tangible
and
to

subjected
and

careful

scrutiny,
its

trust

rather
to

the

multitude of
is

variety of
one.

arguments
should

than
not

the
a

conclusiveness chain which whose

any
no

Its

reasoning
its

form

stronger
may be
ever

than
so

weakest

link,

but

cable
are

fibers
numerous

slender, provided
connected.

they
4.

sufficiently
unidealistic

and

intimately
supposes in
some

Every

philosophy

absolutely
something
mediation. known of
an

inexplicable, resulting
Now that from

unanalyzable
mediation is thus

ultimate;
itself
not

short,
of

susceptible
can

anything
from

inexplicable,
But the the

only be

by

reasoning
from

signs.
is that

only

justification explains
is not
to

inference To suppose

signs
fact

conclusion

the

fact.

the

absolutely inexplicable,
is
never

explain

it, and

hence

this

supposition

allowable.

PART

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

(ILLUSTRATIONS

SCIENCE)
OF
THE

LOGIC

OF

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

FIRST

PAPER

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF1

FEW ceives

persons himself But

care

to

study

logic, because
in the

everybody
art

con

to

be

proficient enough
that and this does

of

reasoning
to

already.
x' one's
own

I observe

satisfaction
not

is limited
to

ratiocination,

extend

that

of

other We

men.

come

to

the
last
as a

full
of

possession
our

of

our

power

of

drawing
so

inferences
a

the

all

faculties, for
difficult
art.

it is not The
a

much of

natural

gift

long
make

and
a

history
book.

its

practice

would

grand

subject for Romans,

grammar, it. that that
a

The

medieval earliest
easy.

schoolman,
of So
a

following the
studies after understood was, but
on

made
as

logic the
being
very

boy's
was as

it

they
to

Its

fundamental
rests

principle, according
on

them,
reason;

all

knowledge

either
reason

authority depends

or

whatever

is deduced

by

ultimately
as soon

premise
a

derived
was

from in

authority.
the

Accordingly,

as

boy

perfect
of

syllogistic procedure,
to

his

intellectual

kit

tools

was

held

be

complete.
Science

Popular

Monthly,

November,
7

1877.

CHANCE To

AND

LOGIC

Roger Bacon,
thirteenth

that remarkable
was

mind
a

who

in the middle the

of the

century

almost

scientific man,
an

schoolmen's

conception of reasoning appeared only

He
saw

ob
any

stacle to truth.

that

experience alone
to us
seems

teaches

thing

"

a a

which proposition distinct

us

easy

to

understand,
handed also

because
down seemed unfolded he
to

conception of experiencehas been

former

from

generations; which

to

him
not

perfectlyclear,because
themselves.

its difficultieshad of

yet

Of

all kinds

experience,the best,
teaches could many
never

thought, was

interior

which illumination,
the external
senses

thingsabout
such discover, Four

Nature
as

which

the transubstantiation the later,

more

of bread.

centuries
of his
"

celebrated
gave

Bacon, in the

first book of

Novum

Organum,"
which
must

his clear account

to

experienceas something
and reexamination.
to earlier

be open

verifica Bacon's

tion

But, superior as notions,a

is modern

Lord

conception is
in
awe

reader

who

is not the

of his

grandiloquence

chieflystruck

by

in

adequacy only
to

of his view
some

of scientific procedure.
crude

That

we

have

make

experiments, to draw
blank

up

briefs
these

of the results in certain

forms, to

go

through

by rule, checking
the

off

everything disproved and

that thus
"

down setting

and alternatives,

in what
2

a an

few

years
"

physical
He
wrote

science would
on

be finished up
a

idea!

science The

like

Lord

Chancellor," indeed.

early scientists, Copernicus,Tycho, Brahe, Kepler,

had Gilbert, methods
more

Galileo and
modern

like those
to

of their
a

brethren.

Kepler

undertook

draw

curve

[This

is

the substantially

dictum

of
I

Harvey 299].

to

John

Aubrey.

See

the latter's Brief Lives

(Oxford ed. 1898)

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF

9 to

through
science

the

places
in

of

Mars;3

and

his minds
to

greatest service
that this
was

was

impressingon
if

men's

the

thing to
that

be

done
not

they wished
to content

improve astronomy;
with

they

were

themselves

inquiring
another

whether

one

system of epicycleswas
were

better than

but that they what

to sit down

by the figuresand
He

find out

the curve, in truth, was.

energy and way

accomplished

this

by his

incomparable
most

courage,

blundering along in the

from
one

inconceivable

(to us),

irrational

hy

after trying twenty-two pothesisto another,until, he fell, by the orbit which modern
In the
a mere

of these, the of

exhaustion well have

every
a

of his

invention, upon
the weapons

mind

furnished

with
at

logicwould
same

tried almost
work

the outset.4

way,

of science

great enough to
affords
some

be

remembered

for

few

generations

of exemplification
of the

the defective state it

was

of the art of each

so

reasoning
step in

time

when
a

written; and
in

chief when of

science has been

and his

lesson

logic.
up

It

was

Lavoisier

contemporaries took
chemist's
et not

the

study
"

Chemistry.

The

old

maxim

had

been,

Lege, lege, lege,

was

labora, ora,
and pray,

relege." Lavoisier's method

to

not

to

read

dream would

that have
a

some

long

and

complicated
it into

chemical

process

certain

to put effect,

practice with
dream

dull patience,after its inevitable

some

failure to
another
a

that with
to end to

modification

it would

have
as

and result,

the by publishing
his mind

last dream

fact:
to

his way make

was

carry

into his

and laboratory,
of

of his alembics

and

cucurbits

instruments

thought,

3 4

Not

quite

so, but

as

nearly so

as

can

be

told

in

few of

words.

[This modern

however, logic,

is largely the outcome

Kepler'swork.]

io

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

giving a
was

new

conception
with

of

reasoning
open,

as

something

which real

to be

done

one's eyes
and

by manipulating

things instead
The

of words

fancies.

Darwinian Mr.

controversy
Darwin The

is,in large part,

to

question
statistical

of

logic.
to

proposed
same

apply
has

the

method

biology.

thing

been

done of

in

widely Though
molecule
the well

different unable of gas

to

branch say

of

science, the
the movement

theory
of any

gases.

what be
on

particular

would

certain

hypothesis regarding
and Max of

constitution
were

of this class of

bodies, Clausius
the

yet able, by the

application of
in the

doctrine and

to predict that probabilities,

a

long

run

such

such

proportion of

the

molecules and such

would,

under

given

circum

stances, acquire such

take

that velocities; and such

a

there

would

place,every
and

second, such
from these

number
were

of colli able
to to

sions,etc.;
deduce

propositionsthey
gases,

certain

properties of

especiallyin regard Darwin,

and while

their heat-relations.
to

In like manner, variation

unable

say

what

the

operation of
case

natural

selection in the

in every

individual

will be, demonstrates

animals
to

that

long

run

they
or

will

adapt

their
are

circumstances. due
to

Whether

not

existinganimal

forms

such

ac

tion,or subject

what of
a

position the theory ought

discussion in which

to

take, forms
of fact

the and

questions

questions of logicare

curiouslyinterlaced.

ii

The

objectof reasoning is
we

to find

out, from

the considera
we

tion of what

already know, something

else which

do

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF

not
as

know.
to

Consequently, reasoning
a

is

good

if it be

such
not

give

true

conclusion the

from

true

premises, and
one

otherwise.
fact and the
not

Thus,
of

question of validityis purely

A

of

thinking.

being the premises and

these

being
ar3

conclusion, the
that

question is, whether

if A It is B

facts

reallyso related valid;

is.
in

If so, the inference

is

if not, not. when the

to

is not
are

the

least

the

question
we

whether,
feel that
an we

premises
accept

accepted by the mind,

conclusion also.
nature.

impulse
do

the

It is true

generallyreason
true

correctlyby
would

But
true

that
if
we

Js

an no

accident; the impulse

we

conclusion

remain
one

had

to

accept it;and
could
not

the false

would
to

remain

false,though
in it.

resist the

tendency

believe

We
are

are,

in doubtless,

the

main of us,

logicalanimals, but
for

we

not

perfectlyso. sanguine
to

Most and

example,

are

natur

ally more
We
seem

hopeful

than

logic would
absence

justify.
of any the

be

so we

constituted
are

that and

in the

facts to go upon effect of and

happy

that so self-satisfied;
counteract
our

experience is continuallyto
a

hopes
this

aspirations. Yet
does
not

lifetime of the
our

applicationof

corrective tion.

usually eradicate
is unchecked is

sanguine disposi experience,it

in Logicality
re

Where
our

hope

by

any

is

likelythat gard
mal action
to
can

optimism

extravagant.

matters practical

is the most

useful

quality an
from it is his

ani the

possess,

and

might, therefore, result

outside animal of these
to

of natural of
more

but selection;
to

prob
mind

ably

advantage

the

have

filled with of their

pleasing and

encouraging visions, independently

natural unpracticalsubjects,

truth; and

thus,upon

12

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

selection might occasion That

one

fallacious tendency of thought.

us, from

which

determines
rather than

given premises, to draw

some

inference

another, is
or

habit
The

of

mind,

whether
or

it be constitutional

acquired.
true

habit is good
from valid
con

otherwise,according as premises
or

it
an

produces
inference the truth
as

conclusions

true
or

not; and
reference

is
or

regarded
of falsity

as

not, without

to

its

clusion
mines
or or

but according specially,

it is such
as

the

habit

which in

deter

to

produce

true

conclusions
which
a

general
this

not.

The

particularhabit
may the

of mind in

governs

that inference

be formulated

propositionwhose
which
a

truth habit

depends

on

validityof the inferences

such
a

the

determines; and

formula
for

is called

guiding
we

principleof inference.
serve

Suppose,

example, that quickly

comes we

ob
rest

that

rotating disk
the with what
a

of copper

to

when

placed between happen

poles of
every

magnet, and
of copper.
one

infer

that this will

disk of

The

guid
is
to

ing principleis,that
true

is true

piece of

copper

of another.

Such

guiding principlewith
with

regard

copper

would
"

be much

safer than

regard

to many

other

substances
A

brass, for example. might

be

book

written

to

signalizeall

the

most

im

portant of these

guidingprinciplesof reasoning.
must

It would
a

probably be,
whose

we

confess, of wholly
to

no

service

to

person

thought

is directed

practicalsubjects,and
beaten such
once man

whose

activitymoves
which

along thoroughly
themselves he has
to

paths.
a

The
are

problems
matters

present
which

mind for

of routine
in

learned let
a are

all to into

handle
an

learninghis
or field,

business. where

But

venture
not

unfamiliar

his results

continually

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF

13

checked masculine
waste

by experience,and

all history shows

lose his

that

the most
and
to
a

intellect will ofttimes

which

orientation
no nearer

his efforts in directions

even

bring him

his

goal, or

carry

him
no

entirelyastray.
one on

He

is like

ship on
the

the open

sea, with

board
a

who
case

understands
some

rules of navigation. And

of the

in such

general
be
sure

study
to be

of reasoning would guidingprinciples useful.

found

The

subject could

hardly

be

treated,however, without
any fact may
serve
as a a

being first limited; since almost guiding principle. But

division among which
are

it

so

happens
one

that class

there
are

exists

such facts,

that in
as

all those

essential absolutely
are

while guiding principles, have

any other interest
as

in the other

all those which

objects of
are

research.

This

division is between

those

which
a

taken necessarily conclusion

are

for granted in asking whether from

that

cer

tain

follows

certain

premises,
A

and

those

which

not

implied in
a

question.
are

moment's

thought
when

will show the

that

variety of facts

already assumed

logicalquestion

is first asked. such from

states
one

It is implied, for in of mind

to
as

stance, that there

belief
the
"

are

doubt is

and

that of

passage

the other
same,

possible,
that
are

object

thought remaining
some

the

and

this alike

transition

is

subject to
As
these have
are

rules which
we

all minds
must

bound before
it cannot

by.
we
can

facts which

already know

any

clear conception of reasoning at all,

be supposed to be any
their truth that very
or

longer of

much

interest

to

inquire into
is easy
to

falsity. On
rules of of

the

other

hand,

it

believe the

those
idea

reasoning
process
are

which the

are ones

deduced

from

the

14

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

which

are

the most
to these true

essential; and, indeed, that

it
not will,at least,

so

long

as

it

conforms sions of from

lead

to

false conclu

premises.
be

In

the importance point of fact, the

to

what

may

deduced
turns

from
out

assumptions
be

involved

in the be

logicalquestion

greater than

might
ex

supposed, and

this for

reasons

which
one

it is difficult to I shall here of

men

hibit at the outset. tion

The

only

which

that conceptions which is,

are

reallyproducts
to

logical

without reflections,
our

being readily seen

and
are

be so, mingle with

the
causes

ordinary thoughts,
This

frequently
for such

of the

great confusion.

is the A

case,

example,
is
never

with
an or

conception of quality.
of observation. We
can

quality as
see

object
green,

that and

thing

is blue

but the quality of

are

being blue
we

the

quality of being green,

are

not

things which
The

see;

they

products
or

of

logical thought

reflections.
as

truth

is, that

common-sense,

it first emerges

above
with

the level of the

narrowly practical,
which the,
can

is

deeply

imbued

that bad is

logical quality to applied; and logic.

epithetmetaphysical
clear it up

commonly
course

nothing

but

severe

of

in

We
when

generally know
we

when

we a

wish

to

ask

question and
is
a

wish

to

pronounce the

judgment,
of

for there and

dis of

similaritybetween

sensation

doubting

that

believing.
But There this is not is
a

all which

doubt distinguishes
Our

from

belief.
our

practicaldifference. shape
our

beliefs guide

de

sires and

actions.

The

Assassins, or

followers

THE

FIXATION1

OF

BELIEF
to rush

15

of the Old his least

to him

Man

of the

Mountain, used

into death

at

command,
insure
not

because

they believed

that

obedience
doubted

would

felicity.Had everlasting
have
to
sure

they

they this,
every

would

acted its

as

they

did. The

So it is with

according belief,
more or

degree.

feelingof

be

is a lieving lished actions. Nor is

an

less

indication habit such which

an

of there

being estab
our

in

our

nature
never

some

will determine

Doubt
must
we

has
a

effect. Doubt

overlook

third

point of difference.
from which of
we

uneasy

and

dissatisfied state
and pass

struggle
the wish

to free

ourselves
a

into the state

while belief;
we

latter is
to

calm
to
we

and

state satisfactory to
a

which

do

not

avoid, or

change

belief

in

anything else.5 merely

to

On

the contrary,

not clingtenaciously,
we

believing,

but to

believingjust what
and

do

believe. effects upon positive

not

Thus, both doubt though

once,

belief have

us,
at

very

different
us

ones. a

Belief does condition

make
we

us

act

but puts
certain

into such when

that

shall behave has

not

in

way,

the occasion

arises.
us

Doubt

the least effect of this sort, but

stimulates
us

to action
a

until
nerve ana

itjs destroyed. This reminds

and the reflex action the

of the irritation of

produced thereby; while

nervous

for the

in logue of belief,
are

system,
"

we

must

look to what
that habit
a

called

nervous

associations

for

example, to

of the

nerves

in consequence

of which

the smell of

peach

will make

the mouth

water.

am

not

speaking of secondary effects occasionally produced impulses.

by

the

interference of other

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

IV

The

irritation of doubt I shall term that

causes

struggleto

attain

state

of belief. be admitted

this

struggleinquiry,though
sometimes
not
a

it must

this

is

very

apt

designation.
The the that irritation of doubt attain should is the

only
It is
as

immediate

motive for

for
us our

struggle to
our so us

belief. be

certainly best
may

beliefs
as

such

truly guide

actions

to

satisfyour

desires;and
does
not

this reflection will

seem

make
so

rejectany
as

belief which

to have

been
do
so

formed

to

insure

this result.

But that

it will belief. with

only
With

by creating a

doubt

in the

place of

the

the strugglebegins,and doubt, therefore, of doubt it ends. of us,

the cessation the

Hence, \ the
We
we

sole may seek

object of inquiry is fancy

not

settlement

opinion. \
and that But for
as

that

this
an

is not

enough
but
a

for

merely
to

opinion,
it

true

opinion.

put this fancy

soon as a

the

test,and

proves
we are

groundless;

firm

belief is reached
or

whether entirely satisfied,

the belief be false

of the

true.

And

it is clear that
can

nothing

out

sphere
which

of

our

knowl affect
most
we

edge
the that

be
can

our

object, for nothing

a

does

not

mind
can

be

motive

for

a we

mental seek think

effort. for each

a

The

be maintained
to

is,that
But
we

belief that
one

shall think

be true.

of

our

be
so.

liefs to be true,
That

and, indeed, it
of

is

mere

tautology to
the sole end away,

say

the settlement

opinion is

of

inquiry
at once,

is

very

important proposition.
vague and be
erroneous

It sweeps

various

conceptions of proof.
here.

few

of these may

noticed

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF

17

1.

Some
it
on was

philosophers have only

necessary have

imagined
to

that

to

start
or

an

in it

quiry
down
our

utter

o^ question
us

set

paper, with
a

and

even

recommended But

to

begin
mere

studies of

questioning everything!
the

the

putting
not must

proposition into
the mind
to

interrogativeform
belief.

does There

stimulate be
a

any

struggleafter
and without

real and

livingdoubt,

all this dis

cussion
2.

is idle.
a

9^
common

It is
on some

very

idea and
to

that

demonstration

must

rest

ultimate

absolutely indubitable
one

proposi principles

tions. of
a

These, according

school,are
to

first

general nature; according

But, in point of fact,an

another, are
have

first sensa
that has
com

tions.

inquiry,to

pletely satisfactoryresult
to
start

called

demonstration,
from

only

with If the be
more

propositionsperfectly free premises

are

all actual
at

doubt.
cannot

not

in fact doubted

all, they

than satisfactory
seem

they

are. a

3. Some

people
is

to

love to argue
of it.
ceases,

point
further action

after

all

the world
can

fullyconvinced
When
to
an

But

no

advance
on

be

made.

doubt

mental

the be

subject comes
without
a

end; and,

if it did go

on, it would

purpose.

If the settlement and

of

opinion is
of
a

the sole

object of inquiry,
should
to
a we

if belief is of the nature

habit,why
answer

not

attain the desired which

we

end, by taking any

question,
to
our

may

fancy, and
on

it constantly reiterating
may

selves,dwelling

all which

conduce

to

that

belief,

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

and

learning to
which is

turn

with

contempt
it? many certain

and

hatred

from
and

any

thing
method

might disturb

This
men.

simple

direct
once

reallypursued by
not
to read
a

I remember lest it I

being entreated change

my

newspaper
"

might
en

opinion upon

free-trade.

Lest

might be
the form

trapped by

its fallacies and "You

are

misstatements,"was
my You friend

of

expression.
student of

not,"

said, "a

special

political economy. by
fallacious read admit wish

might, therefore, easily

upon be the led

be deceived

arguments
this paper, that
to

subject.
to

You in

might, then, protection. trine; and

I have often

if you you do

believe

But

free-trade

is the true is not

doc true."

you

not

believe
to be

what

known

this system instinctive into

a

deliberately adopted.
an

Still oftener,the
of
men

dislike vague the

of

undecided of

state

mind, exaggerated

dread

doubt,

makes take.

cling spasmodically
man

to

views
holds
to

they already

The

feels

that, if

he

only

his belief without

can

wavering,
denied
that

it will be
a

entirelysatisfactory. Nor
faith

it be peace if

steady and immovable indeed, give

yieldsgreat

of mind.
a man

It may,

rise to
to

inconveniences,as

should burn

continue resolutely
or

believe that fire would

if he

not

him,
his But

that

he

would

be eternallydamned
than

received pump. allow He is

ingesta
then the

otherwise
man

through

stomachwill not

who
are

adopts

this method

that its inconveniences

"

greater than its advantages.

the

will say,

I hold

steadfastlyto
And he

truth and
cases

the

truth
very

always
be

wholesome." the
any

in many derives

it may his

well

that

pleasure

from

calm
its

faith

overbalances
tive character.

inconveniences

resultingfrom
true

decep

Thus, if it be

that

death

is annihila-

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF

19

tion,then the
to straight

man

who

believes

that

he

will

certainlygo
fulfilled

heaven

when

he dies,provided he have
in this has life, the
to
we a

certain simple observances which

A

cheap pleasure

will not

be

followed
seems

by

least disappointment.

similar in

consideration

have

weight

with

many it

persons
"

topics,for religious
not

frequently hear

said,
be

Oh,

I could

believe When

so-and-so, because
an

I should

wretched
sand
course. as

if I did."

ostrich

buries

its head the

in the

danger approaches, it very

It hides the

likelytakes
then

happiest
there

danger,

and

calmly

says

is

no

danger; and,
should

if it feels

perfectly sure
A
man

there may go

is none,

why

it raise its head

to see? out

through
cause

life, systematically keeping

a

of view if he

all that

might
"

change

in his
as

opinions,and
he
see

only

succeeds

basing

his

method,
"

does,
what

on can

two

fundamental be said

psychological
so.

laws

I do

not
an

against his doing

to

It would

be
is

egotistical impertinence
that

object that
to

his

procedure
that

for irrational, of

only
is not

amounts
ours.

saying
not

his method
to

belief settling
to

He

does will

propose talk with him

himself

be

rational,and
weak and

indeed,
reason.

often

scorn as

of man's he

illusive

So let

think this

pleases.
of which fixingbelief, be may hold it. be its called

But the in who

method of

method

tenacity,will
social

unable
is

to

ground
man

practice. adopts
and

The

impulse

against
think in
as some

The

it will find that other

occur

men

from differently
saner

him,
that

it will be apt to

to him

moment

their

opinions are
his

quite as
in
or

good

his own, This

may

and

this

will shake

confidence

his

belief.

conception,
be

that another

man's

thought

sentiment

equivalent

20

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

to

one's own,

is

new distinctly

step, and
too

highly important
man

one.

It arises

from

an

impulse
of

strong in

to

be

suppressed,without danger
Unless
fluence how
to
we

destroyingthe
shall the

human

species.

make

ourselves

hermits, we
that

necessarilyin
becomes in the

each
fix

other's

opinions; so
in the

problem

not belief,

individual

merely,

but

community.
Let

the will of the state

Let
an

act, then, instead

be created
doctrines them
at

of that

of the

individual.
for its of the

institution
correct

which

shall have

object to keep

before

the attention
to to

people, to reiterate
to the young;

perpetually,and
same

teach pre
or

them
vent

having

the

time

power

contrary
Let

doctrines
all

from

being taught, advocated,

of
a

expressed.
be removed

possible causes

change
Let them

of

mind

from

men's

apprehensions.
learn Let of
some

be kept
to

ignorant,lest they
otherwise
that than may

should do.

reason

think

they

their and
men

so passions be enlisted,

they
and

regard private Then,

unusual who Let

or

opinions rejectthe
the

with

hatred

horror.

let all

estab
turn

lished belief be
out

terrified into such of found

some

silence. men,

people

and

tar-and-feather
the
manner are

let

be inquisitions persons,

made

into when be

thinking

of

suspected

and,
them

they

guilty of forbidden signalpunishment.

otherwise
not
means

let beliefs,

subjected to
could

When

com

plete agreement
massacre

not

be in

reached, a general
a

of all who
a

have

thought
of this be
no man

certain

way

has in
a

proved
country.

very If the

effective
power up,
can

settlingopinion wanting,
of the let
a

to
to

do

list of

opinions be

drawn

which

least inde
re-

pendence of thought

assent, and

let the faithful be

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF order
to

ai

quired to accept
them of the
as

all these

in propositions,

segregate

from as radically possible

the influence of the rest

world. method
means

This

has, from
of

the earliest
correct

times, been

one

of

the chief

upholding
of

and politi theological universal

or

and cal doctrines, character. the In of Numa

preserving their

catholic

Rome,

it has been practiced from especially,

to those

days

Pompilius

of Pius

Nonus.

This there
one
"

is the most is
a

perfectexample
"

in

history; but wherever

without of.

priesthood
has

and been

no more a

has been religion

or

this method

less made any

are

use

Wherever
of
to
a

there is aristocracy, or of
on men

guild,or depend
or

association

class

whose

interests

supposed

depend
some

there will be inevitablyfound certain propositions,

traces

of this natural
accompany

product

of social when of

feeling. Cruelties
it is the Nor

always
carried kind in

this

system; and
atrocities rational

consistently
horrible this
feel

out, they become

the eyes of any the

most

man. a

should
not

occasion

for surprise,

officer of
the

society does
of that

in surrendering justified the sake of mercy,

as

interests his
own

society for

he

might

private interests.
should fellowship

It is

that sympathy natural, therefore,

a

and

thus produce
In called allow the

most

ruthless of

power.

judging

this method of

which fixingbelief,
must

may

be

the method

authority,we
mental
Its and

in the

first

place,

its immeasurable method of

moral is

superiority to proportionally
worked the which

tenacity.

success

greater; and
most

in fact it has The

over mere

and

over

again

majestic results.
caused
to

structures
"

of stone for

it has

be

put together

in

Siam,

example,

22

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

in

Egypt, and
more

in than the
as

Europe
rivaled

"

have

many

of them

sublimity
of Nature.

hardly

by

the greatest works there

are no some

And, except
time
so

geologicalepochs,
those If which
we are

periods of
of these
we closely,

vast

measured the

by
matter

organized

faiths.

scrutinize
not

shall find that there

has
as

has the

been

one

of their creeds
so

which
slow in of this.

remained
to

always

same;
one

yet the change is

person's
so life,

be

imperceptibleduring
belief remains is

that
mass

dividual

sensiblyfixed.
perhaps
to
no

For

the

mankind, then, there

If it is their

better

method

than

highest impulse

be

intellectual

slaves,then

slaves they ought to remain.

But upon
no

institution

can

undertake the most men's This

as men

to

regulate opinions
ones can

every

subject. Only
on

important
minds
must

be

attended the
no

to, and
of

the

rest

be

left to will
a

action
source

natural

causes. so

imperfection
are

be

of weakness that
one as

long

in such

state
"

of culture that But be

opinion they

does

not

influence
two
some

another

is, so
in the

long
most
are

cannot

put

and

two

together.
will
men

priest-riddenstates
raised above that

individuals These that very

men

found
a

who wider

condition.
see

possess other

sort

of social in other which

feeling;they
have held

in

countries and
from
up
to

ages

to

different been it

doctrines

those

they they

themselves

have

brought
is the

believe; and
of

cannot

help seeing that

been

mere

accident of their

their been

having

taught
with the

as

they

have, and
and
as

having

surrounded caused

manners

associations

they have,
not

that has

them

to believe
can

they

do

and

far

differently.And
there is
no

their candor
reason

not

resist the reflection that

to

rate

their

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF

23

own

views other

at

higher value
this

than

those

of
to

other

nations in their

and

centuries; and

gives rise

doubts

minds.

They
must

will further
in their
to
or

perceive
minds with

that

such

doubts
to

as

these belief of

exist
seems

reference

every

which

be

determined
who
to
a

by

the

caprice either

themselves The

of those

originatedthe popular opinions.

and belief,

willful adherence

the arbitraryforcing be given up be

and which
a

of it upon
new

both others,must, therefore, of

method

settling opinions
an

must

adopted,

shall not decide the

only produce

impulse
is which

to

but believe, is to

shall also Let

what

propositionit
of natural influence

be believed.

action their

preferences be unimpeded, then, and

let
men

under

conversing together and lights, gradually develop

This
art

re

garding matters
in

in different natural

beliefs

harmony by

with

causes.

method

resembles

that

which The

conceptions
most

of

have

been

brought
be

to

maturity.
in the
sort
not

perfect example

of it is to

found of this

historyof metaphysical philosophy. Systems

not

have in any

usually rested

upon

observed

facts,at least chieflyadopted

"

great degree.
fundamental This agrees inclined
reason

They

have

been

because
to

their

propositionsseemed
apt expression; it does

agreeable
not
we mean

reason." which

is

an

that

with
to

experience,but

that

which

find it

ourselves

believe.

Plato, for example,

finds

agreeableto
from
one

that the distances of the celestial spheres should be

another

proportional to
harmonious their main

the

different

of strings which lengths

produce
led
to

chords.

Many

philosophers have
considerations like

been

conclusions lowest and

by
least

this; but

this

is the

24

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

developed
another
man

form

which

the method

takes, for

it is clear that the cir

might
are

find

Kepler's [earlier] theory, that

the

celestial

spheres

proportionalto
of the But

inscribed

and

cumscribed

spheres
his
reason. on

different the shock

a

regular solids,more
of

agreeableto
lead
men

opinionswill
more

soon

to

rest

preferences of example, is,from

him
no

far

universal
man

nature. acts

Take,
"

for that

the the

doctrine

that

only acting
in

selfishly
way

consideration

that

in

one

will afford
rests
on as

more

pleasure than world, but

acting
it has

another.
a

This

fact in the the

had

wide This

acceptance
method
is

being
more

only reasonable

theory. respectable

far

intellectual and
reason

from

the
we

point of
have

view

of

than

either of the others

been the
to

which

noticed. of

But

its failure has

most

manifest.

It makes of
a

inquiry something similar

the

development
more or

taste; but
matter
never

taste, unfortunately,is always

less

of
come

fashion, and
to

accordingly,meta
but

physicians have
the
a

any

fixed agreement,
and forward

pendulum
material

has and

swung
a more

backward

between the has Lord

more

spiritual philosophy, from

And
so we

earliest times

to

the
a

latest.

from
are

this,which driven, in
have

been

called the

priorimethod,
a

Bacon's
into this

phrase,
a

to

true

induction.
as

We

examined
to

priorimethod opinions
But
the from

something
their

which and

promised

deliver

our

accidental
it is
a

capricious
which

element. eliminates

development, while
effect of
of others. essential
not
some

process

casual

circumstances, only
not

magnifies that
differ in
a

This way

does method, therefore, that of

very may

from

authority.
influence

The my

government

have

lifted its

fingerto

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF

a$

convictions;I choose,
and that
come we

may

have

been

left

outwardly quite
and may

free to

will

say, my

between
conscience

monogamy

polygamy,
concluded
when I

appealingto
the latter
to see

only, I

have

practice is

in itself licentious.

But

that
a

the chief obstacle to the spread of Chris

tianityamong
has

people

of of

as

high

culture

as

the Hindoos
our

been

conviction I cannot

the

immorality

of

way govern

of

treatingwomen,
ments

help seeing that,though

in their

do

not

sentiments interfere,

development Now,
that

will be very there my

are

greatlydetermined people, among

by accidental
whom I must

causes.

some

suppose

reader

is to be

found, who, when by

that any

they

see

that any

be

lief of theirs is determined

to

circumstance
not

extraneous

the

facts,will

from

moment

merely

admit

in

words doubt To method

that that belief is of

doubtful,but
to

will

experience a real

it,so

that

it

ceases

be

belief. is necessary

satisfyour
should

doubts, therefore,it

that

be found but which

by

which
some

our

beliefs may

be caused
"

by nothing human, by something

upon

by
our

external
no

permanency

thinking has
such that the
a

effect.
in
a a

Some

mystics imagine
from inspiration method of

that
on

they high.

have But

method

private
of the truth
as

is

only

form of

tenacity,in
is not

which

conception
Our sense,

something public
manency would

yet developed.
our

External perif it
was some re

"^

not

in be external,
one

stricted in its influence to

individual.

It must
man.

be

thing though

which these

or affects,

might affect,every
are

And,
as are

affections

necessarilyas
the method
man

various be

individual
the ultimate

conditions,yet
conclusion of

must

such the

that
same.

every

shall

be

26

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

Such

is the method in
more

of science. familiar

Its fundamental

hypothesis,
are

restated

language, is this: There

are

real
our ac are

things; whose opinions about cording

as

characters

entirelyindependent
realities affect
our our

of

them;

whose

senses

to

regular laws, and, though

as our

sensations

different

relations laws of

to

the

objects,yet, by taking
can

advantage

of

the

perception,we
and any

ascertain if he have

by
suf
to

reasoning how
ficient the
one

thingsreallyare,
reason

man,

experience and
true

enough
new

about

it,will be led

conclusion. may

The

conception here
how I know the

involved that there of be If

are

is that
are

of

reality. It

be asked

any

realities. of

If this

hypothesis is
method of The
as

sole support
not
i.

my used

method
to

inquiry,my
my

inquiry must reply

is this: that

support

hypothesis.
be

cannot investigation

regarded
not

proving
to
a

there

real

things,it
but the

at

least does and

lead

contrary conclu
on

sion;
based

method
ever

the

conception
No its doubts

which

it is

remain

in

harmony.
from

of the

method,
case

necessarilyarise therefore,
with method all the others. of
2.

as practice,

is the
to

The is
a

feelingwhich
dissatisfaction
a

gives rise
at two

any

fixingbelief
here

repugnant
that
con are

propositions. But
there is form.
some one

already is
which
a

vague

concession

thing to

propositionshould
that
a one source

Nobody,
if he

can therefore,

really doubt
would
not

there

realities, or,
satisfaction.
mind
me

did, doubt

be

of dis every
cause

The So
it.

is hypothesis,therefore,

which
not

admits.
to

that
3.

the social
uses

impulse
the
ceases

does

doubt
a

Everybody things,and

scientific method
to
use

about

great many
not

only
it.

it when the

he does

know

how

to

apply

4.

Experience of

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF

27
on

method

has

not

led

me

to

doubt

it,but,

the contrary,

has had scientific investigation in the way of

not

the most

wonderful afford the the

triumphs explana

settling opinion. These

tion of my it supposes;

doubting the
not

method
any

or

which hypothesis

and

having
I could

doubt,

nor

believingthat
would be the

anybody
merest

else whom

influence
more

has, it
about the it.

babble
with it.

for
a

me

to

say

If there

be
him

anybody
consider To

living doubt

upon

subject, let

describe

the

method

of scientific At

is the investigation

object of
to

this series of papers.

some

present I have
between

only

room

notice

points

of

contrast

it and

other

methods This any

of

fixingbelief. only
of
a one

is the

of the

four
a

methods
way.
out

which If I all

presents

distinction of

right and
shut
to

wrong

adopt

the

method whatever

and tenacity

myself

from

influences,
accord

I think

necessary So

doing this
the method

is necessary of

ing
state

to

that may

method.

with

authority: the which,

from
to
ac a

try

to

put down

heresy by
seems

means

scientific point of

view,
but

very

ill-calculated
test
on

complish
what

its purposes;

the

only

that

method the method

is

the state

thinks,so
the
a

that

it cannot

pursue The All may very

wrongly.

So with
as one

priorimethod.
to think.

essence

of

it is to think will be
sure

is inclined

metaphysicians
be
The of inclined
to

to

do

that, however
to

they

judge
system

each

other

be

perversely wrong.
natural
to

Hegelian thought
as

recognizes every

tendency
be
a

logical, although
tendencies. succession

it is certain thinks

abolished

by

counter-

Hegel
of these

there is

regular system
consequence of

in the

tendencies, in

which,

3S

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

after

one drifting

way

and And

the other it is true

for that

long time, opinion metaphysicians get

represents
be
sure

will at last go the

right.
at

rightideas

last;Hegel's system
of that

of Nature
one

the science tolerably whatever

day;

and

may
out
on

that will

scientific
a

has put investigation

of doubt

receive presently

prioridemonstration
with
start

the part of the the

case

metaphysicians.
is different.
to

But

the with and

scientific method known and

I may

observed

facts I follow ap the

proceed doing

to the

unknown;
not

yet the rules which

as

in

so

may
test
an

be

such

would investigation
am

prove. method poses, of the

The is not

af

whether

truly following
my

immediate

appeal

to

and feelings the

pur

but, on
method.

the

contrary, itself involves

it is that bad

application
well
as

Hence

reasoning as

good reasoning is possible;and

of the

this fact is the

foundation

practicalside
to

of

logic.
that the first three whatever has
some

It is not

be

supposed
no

methods
over

of the

settling opinion present

scientific method. convenience
of its

advantage

On
own.

the contrary, each The

a

peculiar
is distin
nature

priori method

guished

for

its comfortable
to

conclusions.

It is the
we are

of the process and there

are

adopt

whatever

belief

inclined to,
which
our we

certain

flatteries to one's
we are

vanities from of

all believe

by nature, until by rough

the

awakened method and

pleas

ing

dream

facts. of

The

authority will
who will
not

always

govern

mass

mankind;

those

wield
never

the various be convinced

forms that
some

of

organized force

in the state

dangerous reasoning ought

way. If

to

be
un-

suppressed in
trammeled

libertyof speech
forms of

is to be

from

the grosser

constraint,then

uni-

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF

29 terrorism its
to

formity of opinion will be secured

which

by

moral

the

of society will give respectability

the method of

thorough
the

approval. Following
of peace. others ferent wherever
a

authority is
are

path

Certain

non-conformities
are

permitted; certain
These
are

(considered unsafe)
in different you
are

forbidden.
and in

dif

countries

different ages;
you

but,

let it be known
you may

that

seriouslyhold
of

tabooed

and belief,
a

be perfectly sure
more

being
than

treated

with you

cruelty no
like
a

less brutal but

refined

hunting

wolf.

Thus,
have
never

the

greatest intellectual

benefactors now, of
to

of

mankind

dared,

and thus

dare
a

not

utter

the whole

of their thought; and

upon every

shade

prima jade doubt

is cast

propositionwhich

is considered

essential to the
the

security of society. Singu

not

larlyenough,
out; but
distressed
he has
a man

persecution does
torments

all

come

from

with
most

himself

and

is oftentimes

at

finding himself brought

up
to
man

believingpropositions which regard with

aversion.
The

been

peaceful and
to

sympathetic temptation to
all I admire

will,therefore,find
his method

it hard

resist the
most

submit the

opinions to authority.
of Men

But

of

tenacity for
who pursue

its it be
not

and strength,simplicity,
are comes

directness.

distinguishedfor
very time easy in with

their decision such make

a

of character,which
rule.

mental
up

They

do

waste

trying to

their minds

to what

they

want, but, fasteninglike lightningupon

tive
comes

whatever the

alterna whatever is
one

first, they
without
an

hold

to

it to

end,
This

happens,
the

instant's

irresolution.

of

which splendid qualities It is

generally accompany
to envy

brilliant,
the
man

unlastingsuccess.

impossiblenot

who

30
can

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

dismiss last. Such

are

reason,

although

we

know

how

it must

turn

out

at

the

advantages which
over

the

other

methods
man

of

settling opinions have

should consider well

scientific investigation.A
and then he should

of

them;
his
no so.

consider with of the

that, after all,he fact,and

that

wishes

opinions to why

coincide

there is
should do

reason

the results

these

three methods

To

bring about Upon

a

this effect is the such considera is far

prerogativeof
tions
more

the method
to

of science. his

he

has

make

choice

"

choice

which

than

the adoption of any

intellectual opinion, which

to life,

is

one

of the

rulingdecisions
to adhere.
to

of his The
on

which

when will he But

once some

made times
a

he is bound
cause a man see

force of habit
old
no case

hold

to

after beliefs, sound will

is in
re

condition upon

to

that
state

they have
of

basis.
overcome

flection

the

the

these

habits,and
sometimes liefs
are

he

ought

to allow

reflection full weight.

an

People
that

shrink wholesome But

case

from

doing this,having they

cannot

idea

be
on

which

help feelingrest
an

nothing.
different what

let such from say

persons
own.

suppose
Let

analogous though
ask

their
to
a

them

themselves
who should

they
to

would

reformed

Mussulman
in

hesitate of

give up
or

his old notions

to
a

regard

to

the relations should

the

sexes; from

reformed Would the

Catholic

who say

still
these

shrink persons

the
to
new

Bible. consider

they
matter

not

that

ought
the

fully,and ought
to

clearly
it that in

understand in its what

and doctrine, above than

then

embrace

entirety? But,
is
more

all,let
any

it be

considered

wholesome

is belief, particular

tegrityof belief;and

that to avoid

looking into

the support

THE

FIXATION

OF

BELIEF

31
out

of

any
as

belief immoral
that from
us

from
as

fear

that

it may

turn

rotten

is who

quite

it is

disadvantageous.
a

The

person which

confesses

there

is such

thing

as

truth,

is dis
on

tinguished
it will then and carry

falsehood
to

simply by this, that

we

if acted

the

point
of in

aim

at

and
not

not

astray,
the

and truth

though
seeks
to

convinced avoid other

this,
a

dares
state

know

it,is
methods does

sorry do have

of

mind, indeed.
merits:
as a

Yes,

the

their
"

clear

logical conscience just

not
as

cost

something
costs
us

just

any
we

virtue,
should

all that it to

we

cherish,

dear.

But,
of
a

desire

be otherwise. be
from loved

The

genius
as

man's

logical
whom

method he has

should chosen
on

and

reverenced world.
he may her he the knows He

his

bride,
not

all the

need honor
more.

condemn

the
and the in and
to

others;
in
one

the
so

contrary,

them But

deeply,
she
is

doing
that

he has

only honors

he

chosen,
And

and

that

he

was

right
work

making

that

choice.

having made complain

be
as

it, he
there
and and

will
are

fight for her, and take, hoping

will that

will not

that many

blows
hard
to

there

may the

as

give, and
of her

strive to be the
blaze of

worthy

knight

champion
draws his

from and

whose

splendors

he

inspiration

his

courage.

ffkrn

SECOND

PAPER

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR1

WHOEVER
common

has

looked

into

modern remember

treatise
the

on

logic

of

the

sort, will
clear
and
now

doubtless obscure

two

distinctions

between
tinct

and

conceptions, They

and have

between lain
in

dis the
un

confused
for
are

conceptions.
two

books

nigh

centuries, unimproved
reckoned

and
as

modified, and
the
A gems of

generally
doctrine.
as

by logicians

among

their

clear
it will
no

idea

is defined

one

which

is

so

apprehended with,
and of
so

that that

be

recognized wherever
will be
to

it is met it.^ If

other

mistaken

for

it fails

this

clearness,
This

it is said
a

be

obscure. bit that of

is rather

neat

philosophical terminology;
were

yet, since

it is clearness had fail made

to

they

defining, I
a

wish

the

logicians
Never
stances to to
a

their

definition
an

little
under
come

more

plain.
circum how
rec

recognize
another would

idea,

and it

no

mistake

for

it, let

in such

ondite

form

it may,

indeed
as

imply

prodigious
with such in this
an ac

force world.

and

clearness On
the with lost

of intellect

is seldom
to

met

other the all idea

hand,
as

merely
have in

have

quaintance
and
to

to

become

familiar it in

with

it,

have

hesitancy

recognizing
1878.

ordinary

Popular

Science

Monthly,

January,
32

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

33

cases,

hardly

seems

to

deserve

the

name

of clearness
to
a

of

apprehension, since
of mastery feeling

after all it which may the

only

amounts

subjective
I take

be

mistaken. entirely
of
"

it,however, they
mean

that

when
more

logiciansspeak
such
a

clearness,"
an

nothing

than the

with familiarity
but
a

idea, since they regard

which needs
to

quality as

small

merit,
call

be supplemented by another,which

they

distinctness. A which
contents

distinct idea is defined is not of

an

as

one

which

contains

nothing
the
con

clear.
idea

This

is technical

language; by
whatever is
can

logiciansunderstand
So that
an

is

tained

in its definition.
to

idea
we

distinctly appre give

the
a

hended, according
definition of

them,

when
terms.

precise

it,in abstract

Here

professional
troubled
not

leave the subject; and logicians

the reader
a

I would
to say,

not

have
were

with

what

they
of

have

if it

such

striking example
ages

how

they

have

been

slumbering

through
the

of intellectual of

listlessly disregarding activity,

and
never

enginery

modern
to

thought,

dreaming

of

applying its lessons

to

the

improvement
that

of

logic.
use

It is easy

show

that

the

doctrine

familiar

and

abstract
has its
ex

distinctness

make

the perfection of
in

apprehension,
have

only

true

place
it is

philosophieswhich
time
to

long

been

tinct;and ing
and
to
a

now

formulate
of
our

the method

of attain-,
as we see

more

perfect clearness
in the thinkers
set
was

thought, such
own

admire

of

time. of

When

Descartes

about
to

the reconstruction

philoso

phy,
and

his first step

to discard

permit skepticism (theoretically)

the schoolmen of truth. of That

the

practice of
source

looking to

authority as

the

ultimate

done, he

34

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

sought
fessed

more

natural

fountain human

of true

and principles,
thus

pro the of

to

find it in the
way, from

mind;
of

passing, in
to

directest

the

method

authority

that

as apriority, ness was

described
us

in my with
our

first paper.

Self -conscious

to furnish

fundamental
But
as

truths,and

to

decide
not

what

was

agreeableto
true, he
was

reason.

since,evidently,
the first condi
,

all ideas

are

led to note,
must

tion of tion
never

that they infallibility,

an

be clear.
and

The

distinc so,

between occurred

idea
to

seeming

clear
to

really being

him.

Trusting

as introspection,

he

did, even
he
own

for

knowledge

of external

things,why
contents

should
of
our

question its testimony

minds? be But clear

in respect to the suppose,

then, I
and

seeing men,

who

seemed

to

quite

positive,holding opposite opinions

was

upon

fundamental of ideas

he principles, is not

further that

led to say

that also

clearness
to

but sufficient,
have

they

need

be

to distinct, i.e.,

nothing unclear
did

about
not

them.

What himself

he

probably

meant

by this (for he
that

explain
the test
seem

with

precision)was,

they

must must must

sustain
not
never

of dialectkal clear
to at

examination; that they

that discussion

only

the outset, but

to

be able
them. that
was

bring
Such

lightpoints of obscurity connected

the distinction of the level

with
one

was

Descartes, and
of his

sees

it

was

on precisely

philosophy.
great and
failed
to
see

It

somewhat

developed by
was as saw.

Leibnitz. for what

This
he

singular
as

genius
what work

remarkable
That
a

for do

he

piece

of

mechanism fed with

to

could
power

not

perpetually without
a

being

in

some

form, was
understand

thing perfectlyapparent
that the

him; yet he did

can

not

machinery

of the mind

only trans-

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

35

I form
V
with tial

knowledge, but

never

originateit,unless
He thus

it be

fed

facts of observation.

missed

the most

essen

point

of

the

Cartesian

philosophy, which
seem

is, that
to
us

to

accept propositionswhich
a

perfectly evident
we illogical,

is

thing which, whether

Instead of

it be

or logical

cannot

help doing.
he

regarding

the

matter

in this way,
to formulas
was

sought to reduce
cannot

of science the firstprinciples without

which

be denied
unaware

and self-contradiction,

apparently positionand
formalities

of

the

great difference

between
to

his

that of

of Descartes. above

So he reverted

the

old

logic,and,

all, abstract
It
was

definitions

played

great part in his philosophy.

on

quitenatural,
of Descartes
to ourselves

that therefore,

observing

that
we

the

method
seem

labored
to

under

the

that difficulty of

may

have

clear
no

apprehensions
better

ideas

which
to

in

truth
to

are re

very

hazy,

remedy

occurred

him

than
term.

quire an

abstract

definition the

of every

important

Ac

cordingly,in adopting
notions, he described
hension books that V
-

distinction of clear and

latter

distinct

the

quality as
in the words.
ever

the

clear appre the

of have

everything contained
ever

and definition; There is

no

since

copied his
will

danger

his chimerical
new can

scheme
ever

again

be

over-valued. definitions.

Nothing

be

learned

by analyzing
can

our Nevertheless,

beliefs existing is
an

be

set

in order of

by

this

process, economy,

and
as

order of

essential other.
are

element may be

intellectual

every

It

acknowledged,

therefore,that
with
a

the books
the

right in making familiarity

clearness
But

notion

first step toward of it the

of

apprehen omitting

sion, and
all mention

the

denning
of any

second.

in

higher perspicuity of thought, they

36

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

simply
years

mirror

philosophy

which
"

was

exploded
of may
our

hundred

ago.

That

much-admired and time

ornament
"

logic
be

"
"

the doctrine

of clearness it is

distinctness
to

pretty
of

enough,

but

high

relegate to
to
uses. wear

cabinet
us some

curiosities

the

antique bijou, and

to

about

thing
The

better very

adapted

modern that
we

first lesson
us one

have
to

right to
our

demand

V that logic shall teach

and who
\masters
s

is,how
it To

make

ideas

clear;
minds be

most

important
in need
our own

is,depreciated only by
know what
a we

stand of

of it.

think, to

meaning,

will make

solid foundation

for great and

weighty thought.
ideas such A
are as

It is most and

easily learned
far

by

those

whose

meagre

and restricted;
a

happier they
of

than

wallow

in helplessly

rich mud
course

conceptions.

nation, it
the and of

is true, may,

in the of
an

of

generations, overcome
wealth of

disadvantage

excessive
a

language deep

its natural ideas. We

concomitant,
may
see

vast,

unfathomable

it in

history,
its

slowly perfectingits literary forms, sloughing at length metaphysics, and, by

is often
a

virtue

of the untirable

patience which
in every
not

compensation, attaininggreat excellence acquirement.

is to tell
run us

branch

of mental which in the

The

page

of

history is
a

yet unrolled
or

whether

such
one

people
whose which

will

will not

long

prevail over
are

ideas pos For that

ones. a

(likethe
sesses an a

words

of their

language)
over can

few,

but

wonderful

mastery

those be

which
no

it has.

individual,however,
clear young ideas
man are

there
more

question
confused
to

few A

worth

than be
to

many

would of his

hardly

persuaded
save

sacrifice

the the

greater part

thoughts

the

rest; and

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

37

muddled
a

head

is the Him
we

least
can

apt

to

see

the

necessity of

such
as a

sacrifice.
with

usually only commiserate,

Time
to

person

congenital defect.
with

will

help him, but

comes

intellectual

maturity

regard

clearness

rather
as

late, an
clearness have
to
a one

unfortunate
is of less
use

arrangement
to
a man

of settled

Nature,
in

inasmuch
errors

whose life,

in

great

measure

had

their him.

effect, than

it would
to
see

be how

whose

path

lies before

It is terrible formula will without

single unclear
in
a

idea,

single head,
in
an

meaning,
act

lurking

young of inert

man's
matter

sometimes

like

an

obstruction trition in the of the

artery, hindering the

its victim and in
to

nu

brain, and
of his

condemning

pine

away of

fullness

intellectual

vigor
has of
an

the

midst for

intellectual
as

plenty.
some

Many
vague

man

cherished

years

his

hobby
be

shadow

idea,

too

meaning

less to loved and

positively false; he has, nevertheless, passionately

made it his

it, has
has

companion
and

by day
his

and

by night,
all other it and and

given

to it his

strength
and
as

leaving life,
has

occupations
for

for

its

sake,

in short it were, he has

lived

with

it,until
of his
to

it has

become,
and then

flesh of his
waked away up like of man;
some

flesh

bone

bone;

bright
beauti

morning
ful with

find it gone,
of the

clean

vanished the such

the

Melusina it. I

fable, and
known of

essence

his and

life gone
who
can

have

myself
histories what

tell how

many

metaphysicians, circle-squarers,
not

astrologers,and story?

not, may

be told in the old German

38

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

II

The

set principles to
a

forth in the first of these papers

of

lead,
of

at once,
a

method

reaching a
the
"

clearness
"

of

thought

far

higher grade
there

than

distinctness

of the

logicians.
is excited

We

have the

found of

that

the and

action of
ceases

thought
when

by

irritation that

doubt,

belief is atsole function

tained^so
of my
as

the

production of

belief is the
are

thought.
purpose.

All

these
as

words, however,
if I had
a are

too

strong for

It is

described

the

phenomena
Doubt relate
use

they

appear the

under words grave

mental

microscope.

and
to

Belief, as

commonly

employed,
But here I

other or religious
to

discussions. any

them how in

designate the startingof

or

question, no
of it. and

matter

small

how
a

great, and

the

resolution my

If, for
find
my
a

stance, in
cent

horse-car,I pull out

and

purse

fiveis To
cer

nickel
to

five coppers,
in which

I way

decide, while
I will pay my decision
my

hand fare.

going

the
a use

purse,

call such

question Doubt,
words such
a

and

is Belief, the

tainly to
To

very doubt

to disproportionate
as

occasion. which

speak
to

of

causing
a

an

irritation which is

needs

be

appeased, suggests
of

temper

uncom

fortable

to the verge

insanity. Yet, looking at

admitted

the matter least

or

minutely,
hesitation nickel

it must
as

be

that, if

there

is the

to

whether will be

I shall pay
sure

the five coppers

I act from

the

(as

there

to

be, unless

some

previouslycontracted
is too

habit I

in the
am

matter), though
to

irritation mental

strong

word, yet
be

excited
to

such

small

activityas
V Most

may

necessary

deciding how
some

I shall act.

frequentlydoubts

arise from

however indecision,

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

39

momentary,
for time

in
to

our

action. in
a

Sometimes

it is not

so.

have,
the the which

example,
I read

wait

and railway-station,
on

to

pass

the advertisements
of different
to

the

walls,I

compare
routes to

advantages
I
never

trains

and

different

expect
of

take, merely fancying myself

I
am

be

in

state to
mere

hesitancy,because
me.

bored

with

having nothing feigned

a

trouble

feigned
or

hesitancy, whether
a

for

amusement

with

loftypurpose,

plays

great part
the doubt

in the may
may

production of

scientific

However inquiry.!/ mind

or

it originate,

stimulates

the

to

an

activitywhich Images
pass into in
"

be

calm or slight energetic,

turbulent.

one rapidly through consciousness,

incessantlymelting
over
"

another, until
fraction of
a

at

last,when
an

all is

it may

be

second, in
decided
as we we as

hour,
how

or

after should

long
act
our

years under

we

find ourselves circumstances In other In

to

we

such

those
have

which

occasioned belief.
sorts

hesitation.

words,

attained
two

this process

observe

of elements may
a

of

con

sciousness,the distinction between

clear there
tone
as

which In

best be made

by
are

means

of

an

illustration.

piece of
A

music

the separate notes, and be

there is the air.

or a

single
exists

may

prolonged
each

for

an

hour of that
as

day, and it
as

perfectly in

second

time

in

the whole

taken

together; so that,as long

a sense

it is

sounding, it might
the past
was

be present to
as

from
as

which

everything in
But

completely absent
the

the future itself. of which

it is different

with

air,the performance
the

occupies a certain
it
are

time, during played.

sounds

portions of
in the
an ear

which

only portions of
in the

It consists strike

orderliness
at

succession and
to

of per-

which

different

times;

40

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

ceive which We

it there makes

must

be

some

continuity of consciousness
a

the

events

of

lapse of
air

time

present to
the

us.

certainlyonly perceive the

we

by hearing

separate
we

notes; yet

cannot

be said to
at

for hear it, directly

an

hear of of

only

what

is present
cannot
we

the
an

instant,and
instant.

orderliness
two sorts

succession

exist in
are

\These

objects,what
we ness. are

immediately of, are

conscious found

of

and

what

mediately
Some

conscious

in all conscious

elements instant actions in

a so

(the sensations)are long

as

completely pres
others and

ent

at

every
are

while they last,

(like end,

thought)
and which

having beginning, middle,

in the succession

consist flow
to

congruence the mind.

must
cover

of sensations be

through
us, but

They
some

cannot

immediately
the

present
future. the We

portion of

past

or

Thought
of

is
our

thread

of

melody running through

succession may add

sensations.

that

justas

piece of
own

music

may

be written

in parts, each of
same

part having its

succession These

air,so

various

systems
the

of relationship sensations.

subsist

together between
are

different systems

distinguished Thought
func-

by having
is

different such

motives, ideas,or
for its sole

functions.

only

one

system;

motive, idea,and
does
not

tion is to
that The

and produce belief,

whatever other

concern

purpose action
serve rare

belongs
of

to

some

system

of

relations.

thinking may
to amuse to

have incidentally

other

results.

It may it is not
to

us, for

example,
have it

and

among

dilettanti

find those of

who

so seems

perverted thought
to
vex

the

purposes that the

ever

pleasure

that which

them

to

think it may

questionsupon

they delightto
a

exercise

get finallysettled;and

positivediscovery

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

41

which

takes is met

favorite with

subject out

of the

arena

of

literary

debate

ill-concealed

dislike.
But

This

disposition
mean

is the very

debauchery of thought.
from be

the soul and elements

ing

of

thought,abstracted
it,though
it may

the other

which

accompany
never

voluntarilythwarted, can anything

has
at

be made

to direct

itself toward in action of

no

but

the pro

duction

of belief.

Thought

for its

only

pos-

L sible motive does not

And

the attainment

thought

rest; and

whatever

refer to belief is

part of the thought itself.

It is the demi-cadence

what, then, is belief?

a

which

closes

musical have

phrase
seen

in the it has
are

symphony

of

our

intellectual

life. We
i

that
we

just three properties:First, of; second,

it appeases

it is

something

that

aware

the irritation of
ment

doubt; and, third,it involves

of
a

the establish for which

to

in

our

nature

rule of

action,or,

say

short,a
is the
rest

habit.
motive
a

As for

it appeases

the

irritation of

doubt,
comes

and thinking,thought relaxes, when

for
a

moment

belief is reached.

But,
which
same

since

belief is

rule doubt

for

action, the applicationof

further

involves time that

further
it is
a

and

thought, at
is also
a new

the

it stopping-place, That is

for thought. ^ starting-place

to

why

I have

permitted myself

call it action.

thought
The

at

an rest, although thought is essentially

final
of this

upshot thought

of
no

thinking

is the
a

exercise

of

and volition,
a

longer forms action,an

part; but belief is only

our

stadium

of mental which

effect upon

nature

due

to

thought,

will influence future

essence

thinking.
establishment of
a

^ The
and

of

belief is the
are

habit,,

different beliefs
to

distinguished by

the different modes

not

\of action

which

they give rise.

If beliefs do

differ

42

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

in this respect, if the

manner same

they

appease

the
no

same mere can

doubt

by producing
in the

rule

of

action, then

differences
make them

of consciousness
more

of them

different

beliefs, any playing

drawn

than
tunes.

playing a

tune

in different
are

keys

is

different

Imaginary
differ which

distinctions

often
of

between
"

beliefs which
the

only
ensues

in their is real

mode

expression;
however. To and
to

wrangling
that

enough,
as

believe

any

objects are
are

arranged
as

in
are

Fig. i,

believe that they

arranged

in

Fig. 2,

Fig.

Fig.

one

and

the
assert

same one

belief;yet

it is conceivable

that other.

man

should

proposition and
do
as

deny
as

the

Such

false distinctions liefs

much
are

harm among

the confusion of pitfalls

we

of be
we

and reallydifferent,

the

which
are

ought constantly to beware, especiallywhen metaphysical ground.

which often
own we

upon

One

singular deception
mistake
the for of

of this sort,

occurs,

is to of

sensation
a

produced
of that the the

by

our

unclearness
are

thought
Instead

character

object

thinking.

perceiving
that
we

obscurityis purely subjective,we

fancy

contem-

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

43

plate a qualityof the objectwhich

and clear the this

is

essentially mysterious;

i"

our

conception be afterward
we

presented to
as

us

in

form

do

not

recognizeit

the same,

owing

to
as

absence

of the

So long feelingof unintelligibility.

an

it obviously puts deception lasts,

impassablebarrier
that it

in the way
terests

of

perspicuous thinking; so
of rational

equally

in

the opponents
to

thought to perpetuate it,

and

its adherents such

guard against it.

to

Another
in the tinction age, when
to

deception is

mistake
of
two

mere

difference
for
a

grammatical
between
the the

construction
ideas

words In

dis

they

express.

this
so

pedantic
more

general mob
this things,

of writers
error an

attend

much

words

than to
that

is

common

enough. When
that it consists
not

I in
a

just said
a

thought
a

is

action, and

although relation,
can

person be

performs
the result

an

action but
an

which relation,
was no

only

of

action,yet
a

there

inconsistencyin

what

said,but only

gram

matical From
as we

vagueness. all these

sophisms

we

shall be function

perfectlysafe
of

so

long

reflect that habits of

a

the whole

thought
there

is to pro-

\jduce
with

action; and

that whatever
to

is connected is
an accre-

thought, but
but it,
no

irrelevant

its purpose,
a

,-^onto
a

part of it. If there be

has
no

unity
we a

among

our on

sensations

which

reference
we

to how

shall act of

given occasion, as
we

when

listen to

piece
its

music,

why
we
v

do not

call that

thinking. To
to determine

develop
what what

meaning,

have, therefore, simply

what
a

habits it prohabits
on

duces, for
volves.

thing means identity of

is
a

simply
habit under

it in how it

Now,
i

the
to

depends
such

\s

might lead

us

act, not

merely

circumstances

44

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

as

are

likely to arise,but
no

under

such

as

might possibly
be.
us
"

occur,

matter

how
on

improbable they
when and how
to

may

What

the

habit

is

depends

it

causes

to

act. \ As

for the

when, every
for the

stimulus

action purpose
we

is derived of action
come

from

per

ception; as
duce
some

how, every

is to pro
to what

sensible result.
as practical,

Thus,
the root subtile
so

down

is

tangibleand
of
no

of every it may
as

real distinction

thought, no
distinction
a

matter

how

be;

and in

there

is

of

meaning
of

fine

to

consist

anything

but To of

possibledifference
see

practice/
in the

what
a

this

principleleads to, consider

as

light
The

it such

doctrine

that

of

transubstantiation.
that in
a

Protestant
sacrament

churches
are our

generallyhold
blood

the elements

of the

flesh and souls the

as

only

tropical sense; they

it would
are our

nourish bodies.

meat

and

the

juice of
that

But

Catholics

maintain

they

literally

just that; although they

wafer-cakes and wine diluted

possess wine. what

all the sensible But may

we can

of qualities
no a con

have into

ception
either
1. 2.
"

of

except

enter

belief,

That That

this,that,or
wine
are

the

other, is wine;

or,

possesses

certain but in

properties.
self-notifications that
we we

Such

beliefs

nothing

should, upon
believe
to

occasion,act

regard
to

to

such

things as
we

be wine
to

according
The

the

which qualities of such action

be

lieve wine be
some ence some

possess.

occasion

would

sensible

perception,the
Thus
our our

motive has

of it to

produce

sensible
to what
as our

result.

action habit
same

exclusive referthe
our

affects the senses,

has
as

same

bear

ing

action, our

belief

the

habit, our

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

45

conception the
mean or

same

as

our

and belief;

we

can

consequently

nothing by indirect, upon

all the

wine
our

but

what
and

has

certain

direct^ effects,
something
as

senses;

to talk

of

having

sensible
senseless

characters

of

wine, yet being

it is not my used

in

reality blood, is
to
a

jargon. Now,
and

object
it
as

pursue

the

theological question;
I

having
to

logicalexample

drop it,without
desire

caring
to
an

anticipate
how im

the

theologian's reply. I_pnly

is that
we

point
idea

out
our

possible it
which

should

have

in

minds

relates to

anything but conceived

of

sensible effects of
idea of its sensible
we

things. Our
and effects;

idea if
we

anything
that
mere we

is

our

fancy
a

have

any

other

deceive
the

and ourselves,

mistake

sensation

accompanying
It is absurd
to

thought
that tion.

for

part of the thought itself.

has any for

to say

thought

meaning
Catholics

unrelated and

its

only
to

func

It is foolish in

Protestants

fancy
sacra

themselves

disagreement about
agree in

the elements

of the

ment,
here
or

if

they

regard

to

all their

sensible

effects,

hereafter.

It appears,

then,
of

that

the

rule

for is
as

attaining the
follows:

third

grade
what

of clearness which effects, conceive

apprehension

Consider

might conceivably have

the

practicalbear
to

ings, we Then,
our

object
of

of

our

conception
whole

have. of
our

conception

these

effects is the

conception of the object. \f

in

Let

us

illustrate this rule

the

by

some

examples; and,
us

to
we

begin
mean

with

simplest one

possible,let

ask

what

by callinga thing

hard.

Evidently

that

it will not

46 be

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

scratched

by

many

other

substances.

The

whole
in its

con
con

ception
ceived
a

of this

quality,as
There
a

of every

other, lies

effects.

is

absolutely no

difference
are

between

hard

thing and

soft

thing so long as they

a

not

brought
be crys should
it be
seems a

to

the test.

Suppose, then, that

of
a

diamond

could

tallized in the midst

remain false
to

cushion

of soft

cotton, and
up. Would

there say

until it that

was

burned finally diamond

was

that

soft?

This

foolish realm

question, and
of

would

be

so, in

fact, except
are

in of

the the

logic.

There

such
to

questions

often

as greatest utility

serving

bring logicalprinciplesinto
ever

sharper

relief than
must

real discussions
not

could.

In

study

ing logic we
but make case,
must out

put them
with

aside with
attentive

hasty
in

answers,

consider the

them

care, may,

order

to

involved. principles
our

We
ask what

in the present
us

modify

question,and
bodies

prevents

from

saying
are

that all hard

remain

perfectlysoft
increases with

until

they

touched, when they

are

their hardness scratched.

the pressure that modes the of

until

Reflection

will

show such of hard

our

reply

is this:

there would with

would

be
a

no

in falsity

speech. They
usage but be
not

involve

modification the words

present
and

of

speech
of their

regard

to

soft,

meanings.
what it

For

they represent
involve

no

fact to arrange This

occur a

different

from

is; only they

be

ments

of facts which
us

would that

exceedingly maladroit. question of what

would

leads
under

to

remark

the

circumstances

which

do

not

actually arise

is not

question of fact,but only

ment

of the most the

perspicuous arrange

of them.

For

example,

question of free-will and

fate in its

simplestform, stripped of verbiage,is something

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

47

like this: could

I have
an

done

something

of which

am

ashamed;

I, by

effort of the
otherwise?

have will, The

resisted the tempta

and tion, this is not of

done
a

philosophical reply is,that

of the arrangement what that is par I

but only question of fact,

so as

facts.

Arranging them
my

to
"

exhibit

ticularly pertinent to
to

question
done
to

namely,
wrong do
"

ought

blame
to

myself

for

having

it is

perfectly
I

true

say

that,if
done
so as

I had

willed

otherwise

than

did,

I should

have facts is

otherwise.
to exhibit true

On

the other

hand,

arrang

ing

the

another
a

important

considera has
once

tion,it
been
duce

equally
to

that, when
it if will,

temptation
a

allowed
its

work,
me

it has

certain

force,pro
There
is from
no a

let effect,
a

struggle how
in what ad

I may. would

objection to
false

contradiction

result

supposition. The
that

reductio

absurdum
would

consists
from

in
a

showing

contradictory results
is

follow

which hypothesis

consequently judged
in the say of that free-will both

to be false.

Many
I
am

questionsare
far from

involved

and discussion,
are

desiringto
am

sides that
one

equally right.
side denies
But what im I do the

On

the contrary, I

opinion

and portant facts, say

that

the other

does

not.

is,that the above

singlequestion was
it not have been for

the
this

origin of

whole

doubt; that, had

never

question,the question

controversy would
is

arisen;and
which of

that this I have This

means

perfectlysolved
Let
us

in the
a

manner

indicated.
is another

next
case.

seek To

clear idea say of that

a

Weight.
is

very

easy

body

heavy

simply
This

that, in

the

absence

opposing force, it
how

will fall.

certain (neglecting

of specifications of the

it will
uses

fall, etc.,
the

which

exist in the mind

who physicist

word)

48
is

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

evidently the
whether

whole
some

conception

of

weight.
may

It is
not

fair

question
for

particular facts
we mean

account
com

gravity; but

what

by

the

force itself is

pletelyinvolved
This Force leads in
us

in its effects.
to

undertake This

an

account

of

the

idea

of

general.
in rude the

is the of

great
the and
to

conception which,
century

developed
from upon the

early part
of
a us

seventeenth

idea

cause, how

constantly improved
all the

since,has
which

shown bodies

explain
how

changes
about modern

of motion all

experience,and
which face has of

to think

physical phenomena; changed

its
more

given
the has

birth

to

science, and
aside from in

the

globe; played

and
a

which, principal
and in

special uses,
course

part

directing the

of

modern

thought,
It

furthering modern
worth
some

social
to

development.
it.

is, therefore,
to
our use

pains

comprehend
what

According
immediate
we

rule,we
of

must

begin by asking
about

is the

thinking
for

force; and
of

the

answer

is,that
bodies of in
were

thus left to every in

account

changes
without continue

motion.

If

themselves,
motion

the

intervention both of is

forces,

would

unchanged

velocityand
never

direction.

Furthermore, change
if its direction without The

motion

takes

place abruptly; through

a curve

changed,
its

it is

always
is

angles; if

it velocityalters,
are

by degrees.

gradual changes
conceived
to

which
to

constantly compounded
of

taking place are

by geometers
rules
not

be

together according
forces.
he If the

the does
to

of

the

parallelogram
what
to

reader

already

know

this

is,
to
are

will find

it, I hope,

his

advantage

endeavor

follow

the

followingexplanation; but

if mathematics

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

49

to him, insupportable

pray

let him

skip

three here. end

paragraphs

rather A

than

that is
a

we

should

part company

path

line whose

beginning
to to

and

are

distin

guished.

Two

paths
the
same

are

considered

be

equivalent, which,
same

beginning at
the
two

point,lead

the

point.

Thus

paths, ABCDEandAFGHE
which do
not

(Fig. 3), are

begin
at the
same

equivalent. Paths
considered of them
to be

point are

provided that,on equivalent,

but keeping turning it, its it

moving either

without

to always parallel

its

position,[so that] when original

that of the other
as

beginning

coincides

with

path,the

ends

also coincide.

Paths
one

are

considered

added geometrically ends ; thus the D

together,when path A
E.
sum

be
to

gins where
be
of
or,
a sum

the other

is conceived

of A B, B C, C D, and
A C

In the of A

parallelogram
B B and B

Fig. 4 the diagonal

since A D is

is the

C;

geometricallyequivalent to
of A B and A D.

C, A C is

the

geometrical sum

~G CTFig.
3

H D

Fig. 4 It

All this: have

this that

is
we

purely conventional.
choose
to
or

simply
the

amounts

to

call

paths having

relations I
it is
a con

described
is
a

equal

added.

But, though
a

vention, it
for

convention may

with
be
can

good

reason.

The
to

rule

geometrical addition
other

applied not
be the

only

paths,

but to any

things which
is determined

represented by paths.

Now,

as

path

by

varying

direction

and

50

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

distance

of the follows

point which
that

moves

over

it from from its

the

startingto

point,it
its end

anything by
a

which

beginning
a

is determined is

varying

direction

and

varying
a

magnitude

capable
velocities

of may

being represented by
be
and

line.

Accordingly, they
true

represented by lines,for
rates.

have of

only

directions

The

same

thing
This

is is

accelerations, or

changes
of
we

of

velocities.

evident evident

enough

in the

case

and velocities; consider that

states

it becomes

for accelerations
are

if
"

preciselywhat
of

velocities them The rule

"

to

positions
are

namely,
to

change

of

that

accelerations
"

velocities. of

so-called
for

parallelogram

forces
The and

"

is

simply
is,
to

compounding
the

accelerations.

rule
then

to

represent

accelerations the

by
The

paths,

geo
not

metrically add only

ferent into
a use

paths.

geometers,
forces
"

however,
compound

the

"

parallelogram of
also

to

dif

but accelerations,
sum

to

resolve
B

one

acceleration
the
a

of

several.

Let

(Fig. 5) be
represents
"

path

which

certain
a a

acceleration

say, such of

change body
one

in the motion
at

that

the

end

of

second

the

body will,

under

the influence of that in

a

change, be
different would that
a

position
what
it such

from

have

had

if its motion A

had B

continued

unchanged,
from

path equivalent to
the former.

would

lead

the latter

to position
as

This acceleration may

be considered
A C and

the

sum

of the accelerations

representedby

C B.

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

51

It may

also be

considered

as

the A D

sum

of the D

very

different
A D is is

accelerations almost
an

represented by
A ways C.

and

B, where
that

the

opposite of varietyof
of two

And
in which

it is clear A B

there

immense
sum

might be resolved

into the

accelerations.

After
the
not at

this tedious

explanation,which
of the

hope,
of
are

in view

of

extraordinary interest
have last to exhausted
state

conception

force,may prepared
em

the

reader's patience,we
this

the grand fact which fact is that

if the actual

conception

bodies.
which

This the

changes

of motion each

different

of particles

bodies
each

experience are
component
a

resolved tion is

in its

appropriate way,
as

accelera law of

preciselysuch
to

is

prescribed by
bodies

certain

Nature, according
which

which

in the relative
at

positions

the bodies in question actuallyhave

receive certain

the moment,2
com

always pounded
which This and what

accelerations, which, being

the

by geometrical addition, give

acceleration

the body actuallyexperiences.

is the

only
will

fact which take the

the

idea

of force represents,

whoever
this
we

trouble

clearly to
what
an

apprehend
force is.

fact

is, perfectly comprehends

to

Whether
or

ought
an

say

that

force
a mere

is

acceleration,
pro real
"

that it

causes

is acceleration, has
no

question of
do with
our

priety of language, which meaning

than the

more

to

difference

between

the French

idiom

//

faitfroid"
it is men's

and

its

English equivalent "It

how many this

is cold.""

Yet

surprisingto
minds. of
as

see

simple

affair has

muddled force
to

In how
"

profound

treatises is not
seems

spoken
2

mysterious entity,"which
have
to

be

Possibly the

velocities also

be

taken

into

account.

52

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

only

way

of

confessing that the

notion work of what
on

author word

despairs of
means! In it is
a

ever
re

gettinga clear
cent

the

admired
we

Analytic

Mechanics effect of This

stated what
a

that

understand
we

preciselythe
understand! which

force,but
is

force itself is contradiction.

our

do not The
no

simply

selfin

idea

the than

word
to

force affect
to
our

excites

minds these

has

other
can

function have
no

actions,
otherwise
what fact is

and than the

actions

reference

force
we

through

its effects.
we

Consequently,
are

if

know every

effects of force are, is

acquainted
a

with

which

implied in saying
to

that

force

and exists, is
some

there

nothing
notion mind

more

know.
a

The

truth
mean

is,there

vague

afloat that
cannot

question may
and

something
some

which

the

conceive;
been
have

when

hair-splitting
the

philosophers have
such
tween
a

confronted
invented
an

with

absurdity

of

view, they positiveand

non-idea it is

empty

distinction the

be
to

negative conceptions,in
a

attempt

give their nullity of given

a

form

not

obviously nonsensical.
from from the

The

sufficiently plain

considerations considera
must

few

pages

back; and, apart

of the

those

tions,the quibbling character

struck
every

distinction

have

mind

accustomed

to real

thinking.

IV

Let
a

us

now

approach

the

subject of logic,and

consider

conception which
clearness than

concerns particularly

it,that of reality.
idea could

Taking

in the this.

sense

of child

no familiarity, uses

be clearer

Every

it with
not

perfect con
it.

never fidence,

dreaming

that

he

does

understand

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

53

As

for clearness

in

its second men,

an even

grade, however,
among those of
a

it would reflective

probably puzzle most

turn

of such

mind,
a

to

give

abstract

definition of
reached

the

real.

Yet

definition may
difference
a

perhaps be
between of

by consider
its

ing the points of

fiction. it has That A such those is
an

and reality

opposite,

figment is
characters characters external
our own same

product
as are

somebody's imagination;
upon
or

his

thought impresses
of how

it. I

independent

you

think
nomena

reality. There

are,

however, phe
our

within
are

minds, dependent
time real in the their
on

upon

thought,
we on

which think
we

at

the But

sense

that

really
how

them.

though

characters
what has
a we

depend
think

think,they
to

do not

depend
a

those char
as a

acters

be.

Thus,

dream

real

existence

mental

phenomenon,
so

if

somebody
not

has

really dreamt
on

it;

that he dreamt thinks

was on

and

so, does is

depend

what

anybody
of all

dreamt, but
the

completely independent
the the other

opinion
not

subject. On dreaming, but

virtue them.
are

hand, considering,
it retains
was as

the

fact of

thing dreamt,
fact than define of what

its

peculiarities by
to

of

no

other
we

that it
the

dreamt that may

possess

Thus

may

real

whose think

characters them
to

independent

anybody

be.j
a

But, however
it would idea
our

such satisfactory

definition may that

be

found,
the

be

great mistake

to

suppose

it makes let
us

of

realityperfectly clear. According

in the
to

Here, then,

apply
other

rules.

like them, reality,

every

consists quality,

peculiarsensible
The

effects which real which

things things they

partaking of
have is to

it

produce.

only effect which

all the sensations

cause

for belief,

54.

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

excite The the

emerge

into

consciousness

in

the

form

of

beliefs.

is,how question,therefore,
from real) distinguished
as

is true

belief (or belief in

false belief (or belief in fic

seen

tion). Now,
ideas of

we

have

in

the their

former full

paper,

the

truth

and

falsehood, in
the

development,
of

appertain exclusivelyto opinion.

which A person

scientific method
the

settling

who
can

chooses arbitrarily
use

propositions
to
on

he will

adopt

the word

truth
to

only
hold

empha
to

size the choice.

expression of
Of
course, the

his determination method natural ages is is does

we

his

of

tenacity never
to
men

prevailed
But

reason exclusively;

is too dark

for that.
some

in

the literature of it. passage the death

of the

find

fine upon
a

examples poetical

When

Scotus

Erigena

commenting spoken
not

in which of

hellebore

of

as

having caused
to

Socrates, he
that

hesitate and

inform
were

the
two

inquiring reader
eminent
overcome

Helleborus

Socrates
the latter took idea

Greek

and that philosophers,

having been
matter to

in argument and have

a

by
What

the

former of
an

the

heart
a man

died who

of it! could

sort

of truth

could

adopt
an

and

teach, without
taken
so

the quali
ran

fication of dom? been

cause

perhaps,
real

opinion

entirelyat hope would

The

of Socrates,who spirit have been

"

have be

delighted to
he would with would

overcome

in

argument,"

have the
seem naive

learned idea have

something by it,is
of the been

in curious

contrast

for whom glossist,

a

dis
When and

cussion

to to

simply
its

struggle.

philosophy began

awake

from

long slumber,

before theology completely dominated

to

it,the practiceseems
seize upon and any

have

been

for each he

professor to

philoso
seemed
a

phical position

found

unoccupied

which

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

55

strong one,
time
to

to intrench to

himself
to

in

and it,

to

sallyforth
Thus,
even

from the
us

time

give battle
we or

the

others.

scanty
make
at
one

records
a

possess
more

of those

disputes enable

to

out

dozen

opinionsheld by
the

different teachers

time Read

concerning
the

question
of

of

nominalism
Historic,

and

realism.
tatum any

opening part
who
was

the

Calami-

of of

Abelard,

certainly as
see

as philosophical

his

contemporaries, and
For When

the

spiritof combat
is of

which ticular

it breathes.

him, the truth

the method than

simply his authority

par-, pre

stronghold.
truth
meant

vailed,the

little more

the Catholic
are

faith. toward

All the efforts of the scholastic

doctors

directed their

harmonizing Church,
without and

their
one

faith in Aristotle search their which

and

faith in the

may

ponderous
goes any

folios

through
It is

findingan
that

argument

further. side

noticeable

where

different upon with

so

faiths

flourish
even

by side,
the

renegades are
whose

looked

contempt

by
the

party
of
"

belief

they adopt;
that of

completely

has

idea time has

loyalty replaced

truth-seeking. conception
sometimes been
on

Since of

the

of
'

Descartes, the defect

less
man

in the will

truth
a

been

apparent.
that what in the

it Still,

strike less intent

scientific
on

philosophers have
facts are, than

finding
belief is
'

out

the

inquiring what
It is hard

most
a

harmony
of the that
an

with
a

their system.

to convince

follower
him what
to

priorimethod

by adducing facts; but

show with

opinion he
laid down
These
to

is

defending is

inconsistent

he has
it.
ever

elsewhere,and
do
not
seem seem

he will be very
to

apt

retract

minds
cease;

believe that
that the

disputationis opinion which

they
one man

to

think
so

is natural

for

is not

for

another,

56

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

and

that

belief

will,consequently,
with lead

never

be
own

settled.

In
a

contenting
method

themselves would their

fixingtheir
man

opinions by
a

which

another hold of

to

different result,
of what

they betray
truth is.

feeble

the

conception

On

the other

hand, all the followers

of

of science

are

fully

persuaded
far
to

that the processes will

if only pushed investigation, solution

man

enough,
which

give
be

one

certain

to

every

question

they

can

applied. One
the

may

investigate
and

the the Mars

velocity of lightby studying

aberration and of the of the

transits

of Venus

stars; another

by

the
;

oppositions of
a

eclipsesof Jupiter'ssatellites
a

third

by
a

the fifth

method

Fizeau;
of the
a

fourth
curves

by
of

that

of

Foucault;

by
an

the motions

a seventh, Lissajoux; a sixth,

eighth, and comparing

ninth, may
measures

follow

the and

different

methods elec

of

the may

of statical first obtain and toward

dynamical

tricity. They
as

at

different

results,but,
the results

each
move

perfects his

method

his processes,
a

will with with

steadily together
research.

destined
minds the

center.

So*
out

all scientific the

most

Different but

may progress of

set

antagonistic views,
them

of

in

vestigation carries
to
one

by

force

outside

themselves

and
we

the
are

same

conclusion. where

This
we

activityof thought wish,

but
to
a

by

which

carried,not
the of

fore modi other

ordained

goal, is like
the

operation
view

of
no

destiny. No
selection
even,
can

fication of
facts
a man

point
no

taken,

of

for
to

study,
escape

natural

bent

of mind

enable

the

predestinate opinion. conception

of truth and

This

great law
The

is embodied

in the

reality.

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

57
to

opinion which
who

is fated what this

to
we

be
mean

ultimatelyagreed by
the

by all*,
the ob

is investigate,

truth, and
That

jectrepresentedin
I would But
to

opinion is the real.

is the way

explain reality.
it may abstract
as

be

said

that

this

view
we

is directlyopposed

the

definition

which

have of

given
the But

of

reality, depend,
answer

inasmuch
on

it makes

the

characters about

real the

what

is

ultimatelythought
the
one

them.

to this is

that,on

is independent, not hand, \reality

necessarilyof thought
I
on or

in of

general,but only
men

of what

you

or

any the

finite number other

on

may the

think

about the

it;and that,
final

hand, though
what
on

object of
what

opinion
is
*

depends
does
not

that

opinion is, yet

you
or

that

opinion

depend

what

or

any

man

thinks.

Our the
an as

perversityand
settlement of

that of others

may

indefinitely postpone
even

opinion; it might
be

conceivably cause
as

arbitrarypropositionto
the human the nature
race

universallyaccepted
Yet
even

long

should

last.

that would

not

change
(

of the

which belief,

alone

could
and

be

the result of the

ex

carried sufficiently far; investigation

tinction of
our

if,after

race,

another

should

arise with

faculties and be the

v

that for investigation, disposition

one

true

opinion must
to.
"

which earth

they

would

ultimatelycome
the

Truth which

crushed would
on

to

shall rise again," and

from

opinion
not

result finally

does investigation But real

is
sure

depend

how

anybody
is real
3

may

actuallythink. depend
on

the fact
to

of reality that
come
a

that which

does
means

the
which

is investigation
true, and
can

Fate

merely that
a

nohow
events
never

be
are

avoided.
ever

It is

superstition to
it is another
to

suppose suppose

that that
are

certain word
to

sort

of
can

fated, and
its

the

fate die.

be freed from

taint. superstitious

We

all fated

58 destined
to

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

lead,

at

last,if

continued

long enough,

to

belief in it. But I may be asked what I have

to to

say

to

all the minute

facts of books

history,forgottennever ancients,to
the

be recovered,to the lost

secrets.

of the

buried

"

Full

many

gem

of purest

ray

serene

The

dark,
a

unfathomed is born

caves

of blush the

ocean

bear;
air."

Full many And

flower

to
on

unseen, desert

waste

its sweetness

Do

these

things not
the reach is dead of

reallyexist because
our

they
And

are

hopelessly
the

beyond
universe

knowledge?
the

then, after
some

(according to
ceased there

predictionof
not

scien shock it?

and tists), of atoms To this I

can

all life has

forever,will
will be
no no

the

continue

though

mind

to know

reply that,though
any number the be

in

possiblestate
to

of knowl the
to

edge
tion
amount

great enough
of what

express unknown

rela the

between of the

amount

rests

known, yet
to

it is

unphilosophicalto

suppose has
a

that, with
clear

regard

any

given question (which

not

any

would meaning), investigation

bring
Who

forth would

solu
have

tion of

it,if
few

it

were

carried ago, made that

far
we

enough.
could
ever

said, a

years
stars
are

know have

of what

substances
in

whose

lightmay
race

been
Who

longer
can

reaching us
sure can

than
we

the human shall not would

has in
a

existed?
few hundred

be Who

of what guess

know be the

years?

what

result of continuing the

years,
to

pursuit of

science

for ten And number

thousand if it
were

with
on

the for
a

activity million,
is it

of the last hundred?

or a or billion,

go

any

of years

you

please,how

HOW

TO

MAKE

OUR

IDEAS

CLEAR

59

to possible

say

that

there is any

question which

might

not

ultimately be solved?
But
remote

it may

be

objected, Why

"

make

so

much

of

these

when especially considerations,

it is your
a

principle
"

that I must
we

only practicaldistinctions
confess that
a

have

meaning?

Well,

that
stone

it makes
on

very

little difference whether of the ocean, in

say

the bottom
not
"

complete

darkness,is brilliant or
makes may
no

that is to say, that it probably

remembering difference,
up
to-morrow.

always that
that

that

stone
at

be fished

But

there

are

gems

the bottom
are

of the sea, flowers

in the untraveled that about much

a more

desert,etc.,

propositionswhich, like
when of
seems our

diamond

being

hard
ment

it is not

pressed,concern
than

the arrange of
our

language
to me,

they
that

do the
we

meaning

ideas.

It of
mean our

however,
so

have, by

the

application
of what
rests
we

rule,reached
and by reality,

clear

an

apprehension
which
a we

of the

fact

the

idea

on, pre
a

that

we

should
as

not, perhaps, be making

it would of

pretension so
were

sumptuous

be

if singular,

to

offer

metaphysical theory
among lief. curious sunken those who

existence

for universal

acceptance
of

employ
as

the scientific method is

a

fixingbe
more

However,
than

metaphysics

subject

much that

useful,the knowledge chieflyto

the reader enable with been

of
us

which, like
to

of of

reef,serves
trouble

keep clear

it,
at

I will not this moment. that

any led

more

Ontology
further

I have than
a

already
have

much

into the all left

path

I should dose of

desired; and

I have

given
and

reader

such

mathematics, psychology,
I fear he may

that is most
me,

abstruse,that
what
I
am now

already
for the

have

and

that

writing is

compositor

6o

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

and

proofreader
the

exclusively.
There is
no

trusted

to

the

importance
and

of

subject.
ideas
can

royal
had
at

road

to

logic,
of

really
atten

valuable
tion. But

only
that

be

the

price
of

close
the

know

in

the

matter

ideas

public
I
am

prefer
going
from

the

cheap
return
to

and

nasty;
the

and

in

my

next

paper
not

to

easily
who

intelligible,
has been

and

wander

it

again. through

The

reader

at

the
in

pains
the

of

wading
one

this

paper,

shall

be
what

rewarded

next

by
this

seeing
tedious

how

beautifully
can

has

been

developed
of

in

way scientific

be

applied

to

the

ascertainment

the
We

rules

of

reasoning.
not

have,
It is

hitherto, certainly
but

crossed

the

threshold know
how

of

scientific
make

logic.
ideas

important
may

to

to

our

clear,
How

they
make

be

ever

so

clear

without

being
How

true.

to

them
those

so,

we

have

next

to

study.
ideas

to

give

birth
into

to

vital

and

procreative
and diffuse

which

multiply everywhere,
of man, which is

thousand

forms

themselves

advancing
an

civilization

and

making
but of

the

dignity
secret

art

not

yet
of

reduced

to

rules,
some

the

of

the

history

science

affords

hints.

THIRD

PAPER

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES1

IT

is

common

observation
it is

that

science

first What

begins
are

to

be

exact

when
exact

quantitatively
are no

treated. than the

called
ones.

the

sciences
reasoned

others

mathematical
showed

Chemists
how
to

vaguely
balance
to

until the

Lavoisier

them

apply

the

verification
into

of their

theories,
of the thus of it

when
most

chemistry

leaped
the

suddenly

the

position
It has

perfect
so

of

classificatorysciences.
certain that and
we

become

precise and

usually think
But these

along
studies the

with of

optics, thermotics, general laws, while

and classification the
same

electrics.

are

chemistry
of certain
as

considers

merely
and be

relations
in

objects;

longs,
and the

reality, in

category
with from these its

systematic botany
last, however,
and

zoology. advantage
evident. rudest

Compare
that

it

it derives

quantitative

treatment

is very The

numerical

scales, such
the
mere

as

that

by
of

which

the

mineralogists distinguish
are

different

degrees
of

hardness,
sta
some

found

useful.
to

The

counting
out

pistils and
chaos from into

mens

sufficed
of from form.

bring botany
It is not,
not

of
so

total much

kind
as

however,
so

counting
of

measuring,
Science

much

from

the

conception

Popular

Monthly,

March,
61

1878.

62

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

number

as

from

that of continuous
treatment
us

quantity,that the advan

comes.

tage of mathematical

Number,
our

after all,

only

serves

to

pin

down

to

precisionin
lead
to

thoughts

which,

however

can beneficial,

seldom
to

loftyconcep
those
two

and tions,

frequently descends
Bacon
notes

pettiness. Of

faculties of which
ences

speaks, that which

marks

differ of
use

and

that which
can

resemblances,the employment
lesser one;
the powers and the excessive But
to

number of it must

only
tend

aid

the

to narrow

of the mind.
a

the ful from

conception of continuous independently fill, tending

to

quantity has
attempt
at

great office
Far

of any

precision.

the

it exaggeration of differences,

is the
a

direct

instrument wishes
to

of the finest

generalizations.When
a

naturalist
num

study

he collects species,
more or

considerable
In
more

ber

of

specimens
he observes

less similar.
ones

contemplating
or

them,
in
a some

certain

which

are

less alike

particular respect. S-shaped marking.

this

They
He

all

have,

for

instance,

certain

observes

that
not
as

they

are

not

preciselyalike,in
same

respect; the S has

are

precisely
lead him

the

shape, but
that forms he

the differences could be

such

to

to believe

found

intermediate
now,

between forms form inter

any

two

of those

possesses.
"

He,
say
a

finds other in the

apparently quite dissimilar

of
a

marking
he
can

"

and
ones

the which

question is,whether
will connect in these in

find

mediate This he

latter with where he

the others. it would

at

often

succeeds

doing

cases

first be
those in

thought impossible; whereas,

at first glance,much differ,

sometimes

finds

which

to be separated less,

Nature

by

the

non-occurrence

of

intermediaries.
a new

In gen-

this way,

he builds

up

from

the

study

of Nature

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES

63

cral for

conception of the character

in

question. He
includes which
show

obtains,
part
the

example,

an

idea of
an

leaf which
of
a

every includes
a

of the

flower,and
I

idea
not

vertebra
much
essence

skull.

surelyneed
is here. How he

say

to

what

logical
of the

engine there
naturalist.2
then of
to

It is the

of the method
one

applies it first to
obtains finally
a

character, and
of
a

another, and

notion

species
however does
not

animals,the differences between

confined
us.

whose
a

members,
which

great, are
here be
out
or concern

within The

is limits,

matter

whole

method

of classification must
to

considered that it is the passage

later;but, at present, I only desire by taking advantage of the

from
one

point

idea

of

continuity,

form

to

another

by insensible de
the is is

grees, that

the naturalist
are

builds his conceptions. Now, of conceptions; there

so

naturalists
no

the

great builders
where

bther
as our

branch
in

of science
we

much

of this work take

done for

theirs;and

must, in great measure,

them it will

teachers in this important part of logic. And

be found ful aid

everywhere
to

that the idea of of

true

continuityis

power

the of

formation

and

fruitful conceptions.
are

By
and

means

it,the greatest differences

into

broken
the

down

resolved

differences of degree, and

in
use

incessant
our

of application

it is of the greatest value I propose

to make
a

broadening

conceptions.
the

great
the

of this idea in
of

present series of papers;

and

particularseries
a

important fallacies, which, arisingfrom

desolated

have of it, neglect

philosophy,must

further

on

be

closelystudied.

[Later, pp.
basis of

170

ff. and

215

it is shown ff.,

that also

continuity is also
article
on

at

the

mathematical

generalization. See

Synechism

in Baldwin's

Dictionary of Philosophy.}

64
At of

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC to the

present, I simply call the reader's attention

this In

utility

conception.

studies of

numbers,
it is

the

idea

of

continuity is
even

so

in

dispensable,that
there
are

perpetuallyintroduced
where
we

where

is

no

continuityin fact,as

say

that

there

in the United York

States 10.7 inhabitants

14.72 is that persons law and of

per square

mile,or
house.3
of
errors so

that in New Another which much This

live in the average distribution

example

of the

Quetelet,Galton,
success

others,have
and biological
cases

applied

with

to

the

study

social matters.
it does
not

applicationof continuity to

where

also,another reallyexist illustrates,

after which demand
a

point which

will here

separate study, namely, the great utility

have in science.

fictions sometimes

ii

The

theory

of

is simply the probabilities There

to
are

science

of

logic
cer

quantitativelytreated.
tainties with its truth and
zero

two

conceivable

reference the

any

hypothesis,the certainty of
its this

and
are

certaintyof

falsity. The

numbers

one

appropriated,in knowledge; while

them

to marking calculus,

these inter

extremes

of

fractions
we

having
may

values

mediate

between

as indicate,

vaguely
one a or

say, the

degrees in which
The
3

the evidence of
is the

leans

toward

the other.

generalproblem
This mode of

is,from probabilities
so

given

state

thought
order

familiarly associated phrase appropriate

the
appearance
a

with

all exact

nu

merical shallow
none

consideration, that
writers in
to

to

it is imitated exactitude
tone

by
"

produce
which
mean

of

where of the of

exists.

Certain when

newspapers

affect
most

learned
men,

talk
no

average

man,"

they simply

and

have

idea

strikingan

average.

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES

65
a

of

facts,to

determine This
are

the
same

numerical
as

of probability

pos the the

sible fact.

is the

to
as

inquire how
evidence

much

given

facts

worth, considered
Thus the of

to prove

possiblefact.
the

problem

of

is simply probabilities

general problem
a

logic. quantity, so
this mode
as

Probability is
vantages may
Some
of writers

continuous

that

great ad

be expected from
have of gone
so

of

studying logic. that,by

means

far

to maintain

the

calculus

chances,

every

solid inference

may

be the

represented by legitimatearithmetical
numbers
the of

operations upon

given

in the

premises.

If this it is that

be, indeed, true,

the

how great problem of logic,

one

observation

fact

can

give
to
a

us

knowledge

of another

independent
It
seems

fact,is
proper
more

reduced
to

mere

question of arithmetic.

examine

this

pretension before undertaking

of the
on

any

recondite

solution

paradox.
are probabilities

writers But, unfortunately, in

not

agreed
is the

regard to this result.

one, I

This

branch

of mathematics writers

only

believe,in which
In

good

frequentlyget
the

results

entirely erroneous.

elementary geometry
erroneous

but reasoning is frequentlyfallacious,

are

conclusions
is
a

avoided;

but
on

it may

be

doubted

if there existence

singleex
does
not

tensive contain

treatise

in probabilities

which This

solutions
to

absolutely indefensible.
of any
too

is partly

owing

the want

regular method
many

of procedure; for
it easy aid.
to

the subject involves

subtilties to make such

an

put its problems into equations without

But,
are

beyond this,the
more or

fundamental In

of principles

its calculus

less in it is

dispute.

regard to
for

that class of

questions
there

to

which

chieflyapplied

practicalpurposes,

66

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

is

comparatively little doubt;

it has

but

in

regard

to

others

to

which

been

sought

to

extend

it,opinion

is somewhat

unsettled.
This
come our

last class of

difficulties can
idea
set

only

be

entirelyover
in

by making
minds
in the

the way

of

probabilityperfectly clear
our

forth in

last paper.

in

To have

get
to

clear idea
what

of what real and of

we

mean

we by probability,

consider
one

sensible

difference there
another.

is

between The

degree
of

probability and

character
to

probabilitybelongs primarily, without

Locke

doubt,
After that
two

certain

inferences. that the three

explains it

as

follows:

remarking
the
sum

mathematician

positivelyknows triangleis equal

the who
to

of the

angles of
he

right angles because

thus continues:
to
"

apprehends
another
man

geometrical
never a

proof,he
the

But

took
mathe
a

pains

observe
man

the

demonstration, hearing
the three
assents

matician, a angle
to

of

affirm credit,
two

angles of
to

tri

be

equal

to

right ones,
case

re it; i.e.,

ceives it for true.

sent

In

which the

the

foundation

of his
such

as

is the

probabilityof
part, carries
receives besides The

thing,the proof being

with

as,

for the most

truth

it; the
to

man

on

whose

testimony

he

it not his

being

wont

affirm

anything
matters

contrary to, or
of this

in knowledge, especially

kind."

celebrated
many

Essay concerning
passages

Human this
not

Understanding
one, make

contains

which, like
are

the first steps in It

was

profound analyses which

shown

further

developed.

in the first of these papers

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES

67

that

the validityof
of the mind

an

inference

does

not

depend

on

any
ten

tendency dency

to

however accept it, in the

strong such

may

be; but

consists
of

real fact that, when

in

premises like those

conclusions also true.
ment

the argument

question

are

true,
are

related to them It
was

like that of this argument that in

as a a

remarked
conceived

mind logical

an

argu of

is

always

member
same

of and

genus

arguments
when their

all constructed

in the

way,

such

that,
are
so

premises

are

real
is

their facts,

conclusions this is
most
as

also.
so; As
most

If the argument

then demonstrative,
is for the is
"

always
so.

if it is

only probable, then it

part

Locke

says,

the probable argument

with

such

for the

part carries truth

to

it."
and

According
tween
one

this,that real
of

sensible

difference be
the

degree

and probability

another, in which
in the

meaning ployment
truth is the certain far
as

of the distinction of two

is that lies, of

frequent em
will carry that this

different modes than

one inference,

with

it oftener

the other.
is in the
a

It is evident

only difference there premises, a

man

existingfact.

Having
as

draws

certain

and conclusion,

this inference

alone

is concerned that

the only possible

is true
no or

practical question is whether

and
term.

conclusion

not,

between
"

existence and
is and

non-existence

there is

middle

Being only
and

nothing

is

altogethernot," said
with the

Parmenides;
sis of the
we on one

this is in strict accordance

analy
For

conception of reality given in the

that the distinction
of and reality

last paper. fiction

found

depends
cause

the supposition that sufficient investigation would

opinion

to

be

universallyreceived

and

all others in the very

to

be

rejected.

That

presupposition,involved

con-

68

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

and ceptionsof reality

figment,involves

complete sunder
idea in the
a

ing
main

of the two. of

It is the heaven-and-hell in the

do

thought. But,

long
of

run,

there is

real fact
it is that

which
a

corresponds to the idea

mode of inference that in

and probability, proves

given

sometimes
a

successful and As
we

sometimes go
on

not, and

ratio

ultimatelyfixed.

drawing inference after inference of the given kind,

the first ten
or

during
may when be
we

hundred show

cases

the

ratio of

successes

expected
come

to

considerable and

but fluctuations; these millions,

fluc

into the thousands less will and

tuations

become
the ratio

less; and

if

we

continue
a

long

enough,
We
may,

approximate toward
the

fixed limit.
a

therefore,define
as

probability of
in which

mode

of

argument
with The it.

the

proportion of

cases

it carries truth

inference
we

from have

the seen,

premise, A,
on

to the

conclusion,B,
if

depends, as
a

the
a

that guiding principle, class B

fact of the

class A

is true, of

fact of the fraction both total

or

is true.

The

probabilityconsists
number of times denominator

the

whose
A and B

numerator
are

is the and which

in which is the B is
so

true,
in

whose A

number

of

times of

is true, whether
as

not.

Instead

speak
is not

ing
the A

of this

the

probabilityof

the

there inference, the

slightest objection to callingit happens,

B

probabilitythat, if
of the

happens.
without

But

to

speak

probability
no

of the event

B,
all.

naming

the

reallyhas condition,
it is be of

meaning
what
we

at

It is true

that when

perfectlyobvious permitted.
But in

condition

is meant,

the

ellipsis may
habit

should

avoid

contractingthe
the habit

using language
it

this way

(universalas

is),because

gives rise

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES action
or

69
of causation determine it
or

to

vague either

way

of

thinking,as
an

if the
to
or

might
not
to
so

determine
or

event
more

happen

happen,
as

leave it
to
an

less free to
chance that
use some

happen

not,

to

give rise
It is

inherent
to
me

in

regard

to its

occurrence.4
and
most

quite clear

of the worst

persistenterrors
have arisen from

in the

of

the

doctrine

of

chances

this vicious mode

of

expression.5

IV

But

there
to

remains
what

an

important point to be cleared

been
kind

up.

According

has
a

said, the
of inference

idea

of

probability
is

belongs to essentially
An indefinitely.
or

which be

repeated

individual show
to
no a a a no

inference effect of

must

either true

and false,

can

probability;and, there
in

fore,in

reference have

singlecase

considered Yet
a or

itself, prob
to choose

can ability

meaning.
card from one,
a

if

man

had

between five red

drawing
cards
and

pack containing twentyfrom

a

black
and

pack containing
if the
to

twenty-fiveblack cards
of
a

red one,
to to

and

drawing
eternal

red

card

were a

destined black
one

transport him

and felicity, woe, it would

that of

consign him
he

to
to

everlasting prefer the

be

follyto deny

that

ought
red

pack containing the larger portion of

from
not

cards, although, repeated.

It is

the nature easy

of the

risk,it could
our

not

be

to reconcile this with

analysisof the conception

4 5

Cf. pp. 179 ff. below. The conception of probabilityhere by

Mr.
of

set

forth

is

that substantially
Of
course,
was
a

first

developed

Venn,

in had

his

Logic

of

Chance. the of

vague

apprehension

the idea
to

always existed,but belongs

the

problem

to

make

it perfectly clear, and

him

credit

first doing

this.

70

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

of

chance. should
He

But draw

suppose

he

should

choose

the

red

pack,
he
with

and
have?

the wrong
say

card, what

consolation

would

might

that he had

acted

in accordance
reason was

reason,

but that would And

it

only
if he
as

show

that his

abso

lutelyworthless.
how He he cal could could he
not

should

choose
a

the

right card,

regard
say

anything but
drawn

happy accident?
the other
an

that if he had

from

pack,

might

have

drawn

the wrong
"

one, because then

hypotheti

propositionsuch
to
a

as,

if

A,

B,"

means

nothing with
in the existence

reference
of
a

singlecase.

Truth

consists

real fact corresponding to the true

to

proposition. Corre
B," there
A may such be
an

sponding

the

"if A, proposition, such But this

an

then
as

the fact that whenever

event
no no as

event
case

happens

happens.
far
as

in the
man

supposed,

which would
to

has be the he

as parallel

is

concerned, there give

any

real fact whose

existence

could

truth

statement

that, if he had
a

drawn card. in

from

the

other

pack,

might have drawn

of
an

black

Indeed,
truth
true

since the the

validity

inference

consists

the

of

hypothetical
will
corre

propositionthat */ the premises be

also be true, and

the conclusion
can

since the only real fact which

spond
is true

to such

propositionis
is
so

that whenever

the antecedent that

at

the consequent
sense

also,it follows
an

there all.

can

be

no

in

reasoning in

isolated case,
at

These

considerations

appear, Yet

first
case

sight,to dispose of
of the other side is

the
not

mentioned. difficulty

the

yet exhausted.
its effect

Although in, say,

the
a

probability will probably risks,by

and
a

manifest

thousand of

certain

proportion between
as yet this, we

numbers

successes

failures,

have

seen, is

only

to say

that it certainly will,

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES

71

at

do length,

so.

Now

the number
a man

of

the number risks,

in his whole

of

which probable inferences,

is
a

draws

life,

finite one,

and

he cannot
with

be
the

certain absolutely
at probabilities
cannot

that the
Tak

mean

result will accord

all his risks will not

all.

ing

collectively, then, it
his
case

be certain that
in de
re

they

and fail,
one

does

not

differ, except
an

gree, from sult of the continues he

the

last of

supposed.

It is

indubitable

theory

that probabilities
must

every

gambler, if

he

long enough,

ultimatelybe
some

ruined.

Suppose

tries the

martingale, which
I
am

believe in

and infallible,
the

which houses. if he loses

1

is,as
In

informed,
of

disallowed

gamblingsay

this method bets bets and

playing, he
loses that he then

first bets he

$i;

loses it he that he

$2; $8;
he

if he if

bets $4; if he
he

gains
more; he

has
no

lost

2+4=7,
many

has

gained $i
first
one

and

matter

how
him he
come

bets he

loses,the
he
was

gains
In

will make that time way, will

$i richer than
will

in the

beginning.
at

probably gain
the
run

at

first;but,
so

last,the

when money

of luck is
to

against him

that he will not

have

enough
will

double, and

let his must, therefore, he this has

run won as

bet go.
much him
as

This
he

probably happen before

first place, so
than that

had

in the poorer

against
or

will leave him

sure

he

began;
that the

some

time is

other
a

it will be

to

happen. winning
a

It is true any
sum

there
can

always
pay,

of possibility
we

his upon

bank

and

thus

come

celebrated

paradox that,though he is

certain to be ruined, the value

of his expectationcalculated
this

according to the
is

usual

rules (which omit

a

consideration)
or

large. But,
same

whether

gambler plays

in this way if he

any

other, the

thing is true, namely,

that

plays long

72

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC
to have

enough
him
true utmost
as

he will be
to
an

sure

some

time

such The

a same

run

against thing
take is

exhaust insurance
to

his entire company.

fortune.
Let the

of

directors

the

pains

and be independent of great conflagrations

can

their actuaries pestilences,

to the doctrine

tell them
must

that, according
at

of

chances, the
to

time
a

come,

when last, tide

over

their losses will such

start
a

bring them

stop.

They
but the

may then

crisis in

by extraordinary means,
a

they thing

will will

again

weakened
sooner.

state, and
An knows

same

happen again
to

all the

actuary might be inclined

that the

deny this,because
is

he

expectationof
interest

his

company

large,or perhaps (neglectingthe

But calculations
now

upon

money)
out

is infinite. the the

as

of

expectationsleave consideration,
I must
not

of account
reverses

circumstance whole that

under

which

thing. However,
insurance is
on

be
un

understood

saying
than

this account All human

sound,

more

other

kinds

of business. the
same

af

fairs rest

upon If

and probabilities,
man were

thing
be

is true

everywhere.
sure

immortal

he could

perfectly
he had

of

seeing the day

should

when his

everything

in which

trusted

betray

trust, and, in short, of coming

He would break

eventually to hopeless misery. last,as

every

down,
as

at

good fortune, as
In

every
we

dynasty,
have

every

civilization does.
But with death

place of

this

death.
to

what,
death makes
so

without

death, would
to
some man.

happen
At

every
same

man,

must

happen

the
our

time,

the number
makes their of

of
mean

our

risks,of

inferences,
The very

and finite, idea of

result uncertain.
on

and probability is

reasoning rests

the
are

assumption
thus

that this number

indefinitely great.

We

landed

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES

73

in the

same

as difficulty before,and

I
are our our

can

see

but
to

one

solu

tion of it.

It

seems

to

me

that

we

driven

this,that
shall not
must

logicality inexorably requires that

be limited. embrace
must

interests
own

They
whole

must

not

stop at

fate,but

the

community.
must

This

community,
to all
or races

again, beings
intel

not

but be limited,
we can come

extend

of

with

whom

into

immediate

mediate

lectual this
not
seems

relation.

It must

reach, however
all bounds. the whole

vaguely, beyond
He who

geologicalepoch, beyond
sacrifice his
to me,
own

would
it

soul

to

save

world, is,as

in illogical in the social should

so

all his

inferences,collectively.

Logic
To

is rooted

principle.
not
as

be logical men
are

be

selfish; and,
are a

in

point of
will from him

they fact,
ful

not

selfish

they
is

thought.
different money

The

prosecution
The he
are

of

one's

desires

thing
does

selfishness.
no

miser
cares

is not for what

his selfish;

good,

and

shall become of
our

of it after his

death.

We

constantly speaking
of
are our

possessionson
no

and the Pacific, sonal have interests wider

ones.

destiny as
a

where republic, which shows

per
we

involved,in
We
some

way

that

discuss

with

anxiety the possibleex

of years, show
or

haustion off of the

of coal in
sun

hundreds

the

coolingpopular

in

some

and millions, that

we can

in the most the

of all religious tenets

a

conceive

of possibility of his fellows.

a man

man's

descending into hell

it is not necessary of the

for the salvation that logicality of

Now,
himself

for

should
It is

be

capable
he

heroism

self-sacrifice.

sufficient that
should
are

should

recognize
that

the

of it, possibility who has his

own

perceive that only

man's

inferences

it

and reallylogical,

should

consequently regard

74

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

as

being only
hero. So

so

far
as

valid he

as

they would
refers with

be

accepted by
to

the

far

thus

his inferences such

a

that

standard, he becomes
This
can

identified

mind. Sometimes
runs we

makes

attainable enough. logicality

to

personallyattain
a

heroism. he He will

The

soldier who be

to

scale
is not

wall

knows
cares

that for. in

probably

shot, but
if all the

that

all he

also knows

that

regi
for
we

ment, with whom

ward
can

feelinghe

identifies

himself,rush
In other
we cases

at

once,

the fort will be the virtue.

to

taken.
man

only
as

imitate

The the

whom

have

sup is

posed
not
a

having

draw draw is

from from

two

packs, pack
that with

who from

if he

logician will
see, if he
as

the

red

mere,

habit,will

logicianenough, only
care

he his

cannot
own

be

logicalso long
but
to

he

is concerned should

fate,
was

that

that

man

who

equally for
sort

what
act most

happen

in all would

possible cases
draw from

of the the

could
the of

logi
red sub

cally,and
cards, and

pack

with

thus, though incapable logicianwould

to share

himself

such

limity,our
courage But

imitate his

the effect of that

man's

in order all this

logicality.
identification of one's

requires a
those reasons, of and

conceived
an a

interests with
there exist
can no

unlimited

community.
will show human

Now,
that race,

later discussion

there
or

be

no

reasons,

for

thinking that the

any

intellectual race,
can

will exist forever.

6

On

the other

hand, there
as

be

no

reason

againstit; and, fortunately,

is that
we

the
6

whole
not

requirement
admit
an

should

have

certain
could show

I do

here

absolutelyunknowable.
the
case

Evidence

us

what
a

would

probably
time

be

after

any

given lapse of time; and

that

though
not

subsequent yet further

might

be

assigned which
cover

evidence

might

cover,

evidence

would

it.

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES

75
our

sentiments,there
a

is

nothing in

the facts to forbid

having
may

hope, or

calm any

and

cheerful wish, that the community

last beyond
It may

assignable date.
strange
that
I in

seem

should
an

put

forward

three

sentiments, namely,

interest

indefinite community,

of this interest being made recognitionof the possibility

supreme,

and

hope

in the unlimited

continuance
of

of intellec

tual
when

as indispensablerequirements activity, we

logic. Yet, struggleto

consider

that
as

logicdepends
it terminates

on

mere

escape in

doubt, which,

in

action,must
cause

begin
of
our

emotion, and

that, furthermore, the only

on reason

planting ourselves ing

we

is that other of the social

methods

of escap

doubt

fail

on

account

impulse, why should presupposed

which

wonder

to

find

social

sentiment
two

in

reasoning?
necessary, that.
seem

As

for the other

are me so

sentiments and

I find of

they

only

as

supports
that

accessories

It interests
to

to notice

these three
as

sentiments trio of of

be pretty much

the

same

that

famous

Charity, Faith, and

Hope, which,

in the

estimation

St.

Paul, are
Old
but
nor

the finest and New Testament

gifts. Neither greatest of spiritual

is
a

textbook

of the

logicof science,

the

latter is
to

certainlythe highest existingauthority in

heart which
a man

regard
to

the

dispositionsof

ought

have.

Such

average per

statistical numbers square

as

the

number
of

of

in

habitants
per

mile, the
of

average

number per

deaths

week, trie number

convictions

indictment, or,
y, where

generallyspeaking, the

numbers

of x's per

the x's

76
are a

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

class of

things some

or

all of which I term which number

are

connected

with

another

class of
two

things,their ys,
of

relative numbers.
a

Of

the

classes
one

things
it is

to
a

relative number
may

that refers, and relate,

of which
one

be called its
is made

that

per which

the numeration

may

be called

its correlate.
a

Probability is
the ratio of the

kind

of of them

relative number;

namely, it
certain

is

number with

arguments
to

of

genus

which
ments

carry of

truth

the

total number for the from

of argu of

that

genus, very

and

the

rules

calculation
this considera
are

are probabilities

easily derived

tion.

They

may

all be

given here, since they

convenient
to

extremely something

simple, and
of the RULE any

it is sometimes rules

know

elementary
I. Direct

of calculation
"

of chances.

Calculation.
say

To

calculate,directly,
the number
must

relative

number,

for instance
a

of pas

sengers
as

in the average

tripof

street-car, we

proceed

follows:
Count the

number
and

of passengers divide

for each of

trip; add trips.

all

these
are we

numbers,

by

the number may be

There

cases

in which
to

this rule the number

simplified. Suppose
to
a

wish

know

of inhabitants
cannot two

dwelling
dwell

in New

York.

The

same

person

inhabit two

ings.
to

If he divide counted
a

his time

between

dwellingshe ought
In this
case we

be

half-inhabitant the

of each.

have New

only
York

to

divide the

total number of their

of the

inhabitants

of the

by

number

dwellings,without
which inhabit each

necessityof counting separately those

one.

each in

similar relate

proceeding belongs
to

will

apply

wherever

dividual

one

individual

correlate

exclu-

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES

77
no x

sively. longs to
number

If
more

we

want

the number
one

of jc'sper y, and

be

than

y,

we

have

only to divide the whole

of

of x's of course,

y'sby
fail if

the number

y's. Such

method
num

would, of

applied to findingthe
per

average

ber of street-car the total number many To of them

passengers of travelers

trip.

We

could not
of

divide

by

the number many

since trips,

would

have

made

passages.

find the
a

that probability of

from

given class of
is

prem

A, ises,
necessary

given class
to ascertain

it conclusions, B, follow,

simply

what
are

proportionof

the times

in which

premises of
are

that class In

true, the appropriateconclusions

also true.
occurrence

other of both

words,

it is the A

number

of

cases

of the

the events of the

and

B, divided by
of the event A.

the total number

of

cases

occurrence

RULE

II. Addition

of Relative
the
same

Numbers.

"

Given the

two
num

relative numbers

having

correlate, say
togetherper
a z

ber of x's per y, and

to find the number

the number of a's and

of z's per y; it is required z's

x

y.
same

If there y, the

is
sum

nothing which
of the
two

is at

once

an

and

to the

given

numbers

would
we

give
had

the

required
aver

number. age

Suppose, for example, that

of friends that
sum men

given the
the

number
of

have,

and

average average

number

enemies, the

of these in
a man.

two

is the

number
it

of persons

interested
not

On

the other number

over

hand,
of

plainly would having

do

to

add

the

average and each

persons

constitutional number

diseases

military

age, to the average from

exempted by
order
to
are

cause special

in militaryservice, in any
once.

get the average exempt

in two

number
or more

exempt
ways
at

way,

since many

78
This

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

rule

applies directlyto
two

probabilities, given
mutually exclusive

the

probabilitythat
will

different and the

same

events

happen
for

under

supposed

set of circumstances.

Given,
also the
two
or

instance, the probabilitythat if A

if A then

then
sum

B, and
of these either B
to

probabilitythat
the

C,

then

the

is probabilities

probabilitythat
no

if A

then
at

C,

so

long

as

there

is

event

which

belongs

once

the

two

classes B

and

C.

RULE
pose that

III.
we

Multiplicationof
have

Relative

Numbers.

"

Sup
y;
a

given

the of

relative z's per that

we

number
x

of x's per or, to take

also the
concrete

relative number

oi

y;

example,
number

suppose

have

the given, first,

average

of children average
"

in families

livingin New
in the
two

York;
of
a

and, second, the

New would New York child
the

number the

of teeth

head

then

product
of

of these

numbers

give
York
in

average But

number
this mode

children's
of

teeth will

in

family.

reckoning
In could

only

apply

general under
not

two

restrictions.
same case

the first place,

it would ferent
to

be

true

if the in that

child those

belong
who

to

dif

for families, different

children have
an

belonged

several
or

families of

might

exceptionally
affect
more

large
average

small
number

number

teeth, which
teeth in
a

would

the than

of children's

family
a

it would In

affect the average

number rule would

same

of teeth in
not

child's head. if different

number

the second

place, the
share the

be true

children

could

teeth, the average

case

of children's different
a

teeth being in that

the average

evidently something
of teeth

from

number

belonging

to

child.

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES

79
must

In order ceed
as

to

apply

this rule to that B

we probabilities, we

pro

follows:

Suppose

have from

given
the of

the

proba
B

that bility and A

the conclusion

follows certain the

premise A,

representingas
that B
we

usual

classes

propositions.
an

Suppose
in which third

also knew

probabilityof
a

inference
a

should the

be the premise, and

conclusion.

proposition of
we

kind, C,

Here, then,
this rule. We

have

the

materials the

for the number

applicationof
of of B's per

have, first,
should A.
have But

relative

A.
B
so

We

next

the relative number

the classes of

C's per

following from
selected that

propositionsbeing
any B

the prob
same

of C followingfrom ability
as

in

general is just the

one

the

probabilityof
is deducible

C's

following from
an

of

those

B's

which be C It
was

from

A,

the
to

two

probabilities may
the of probability exist
as

multipliedtogether,in followingfrom might happen

affected A. that The the

order
same

give

restrictions B

before.
from follow A

probabilitythat propositionsof

follows class B

by

certain

the

ing from

several

different

propositionsof
these restrictions

the class A.
are as

But,
little

practically speaking, all

consequence, and it is the

of very
a

usually recognized probabilitythat,if

B is.

principle
is,

true universally

that

is true, B

multipliedby
the

the

probabilitythat, if
A is true, C
to

is true, C

is,gives

probability that, if
is
a

There
is made.

rule supplementary

this,of which
the
"

great

use

It is not

universallyvalid,and
use

greatest
a

cau

tion has to be exercised in making

of it

double
error;
cases

care,

first, never second,

which
it
never can

to

use

it when fail to

it will involve take

serious of

and,
in

to

advantage
rule

it in upon

be employed.

This

depends

the fact

8o

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

that B

in very

many

cases

the
same

probabilitythat C
as

is true C

if is

the is,is substantially if A of is.

the

probabilitythat
we

true

Suppose,
among

for the

example,
children

have

the

average

number suppose born

males
we

born

in New

York;

that

also have months

the average among those

number born
at

of children in New
as a

in the winter
we

York.

Now,

may

assume

without

doubt,
no

least nice

closely

approximate
would be in

proposition (and place

in

very

calculation the pro

York in

regard

to

that probabilities), born born

portion of
is the New born the of of
a a same

males
as

among the

all the children males

names an

in New in
summer

proportion of
the

if York; and, therefore,

of all the children

we

during a

year

were

put into
name

urn,

might multiply
be
the
name name

probabilitythat
male
child child born

any

drawn

would it would
to
a

by

the

probabilitythat
in order
name

be the
the

in summer, be the of

obtain

prob
in

abilitythat
summer.

it would

of

male

child born
the

The the

questions

probability,in
such
as so as

treatises

upon drawn the

subject,have
urns, the the and

usually been
games of

relate to balls on, in which it is called

"

from

cards, and
of events, the
as

question of

independence question of

that is to say, under the

whether
same

probabilityof C, probabilityunder
the

the hypothesis B, is the

has been

its

hypothesis A,
of

very the

simple; but, in

appli

cation

to probabilities
an

it ordinary questions of life, whether

two

is often may
or

exceedingly nice question

as

events

be considered
not.

independent
about

with cards

sufficient accuracy it is assumed makes of

one

In

all calculations

that deal cards

the

cards

are

which thoroughly shuffled, of another. In

quite independent

point

fact the

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

CHANCES

81

seldom

are,

in
a

shuffled sufficiently to practice, game of

make cards
so

this have

true; thus, in

whist, in
same

which

the
are

fallen in suits of four of the up, and

some

suit,and

gathered
same

they will

lie more

or even

less in sets of four of the after

suit,
least

this will be true

traces

they
will

are

shuffled.

At

of this arrangement number of

"

remain, in

consequence
are

of which
"

the

short

as suits/'

they

called

that very

is to say, the number

of hands in

in which
to

the cards is smaller

are

unequally divided
calculation
a

regard

suits

"

than

the

would the

make

it to

be;

so

that,when
about the

there is

misdeal,where
very

cards,being
is

thrown
a common

table,get
that

it thoroughly shuffled,
next

saying

in the hands A few

dealt out
a

there of

are

generallyshort
who

suits.
a

years
so

ago

friend
as

mine,

plays whist
of had
to

great deal,was
in

good

to

count

the number the cards

spades

dealt to him

165 hands, in which

than

been, if
calcula my fact

anything,shuffled better
there tion, should have

usual.

According

been
or

85 of these hands
four

in which

friend held either three there

were

spades,but
of

in

point of

94,
to

showing
the

the influence here

imperfectshuffling.
these
are

According
fundamental
tional one,

view

taken,

the An

only
addi

rules for the calculation

derived from
some a

of chances.

different

conception of prob
if it be sound

is given in ability,

which treatises,
a

might
I

be made

the basis

of

theory

of

reasoning. Being, as
of it serves

believe it is, absolutely absurd, the consideration

to

bring us

to the true must

theory; and
be

it is for the sake of this

to

which discussion, that I have attention science.

at

postponed

the

next to

number,

brought
this

the doctrine of

of chances
our

the reader's

early stage

studies

of the

logicof

FOURTH

PAPER

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION1

WE the

have

found
truth that

mat

every of the

argument
of

derives

its force
to

from it be

general
and

class

inferences

which of

longs;

probability
with them

is the

proportion
those of any

arguments
This of the
a

carrying
is most

truth

among

genus.

conveniently logicians.
an

expressed They
and

in

the the which

nomenclature fact

medieval

called that

expressed
from every such
a

by

premise

antecedent,
while
such termed say and of times that the in the

follows
that

it its

consequent;
almost

leading

principle,
is followed

(or
con

every) they
may

antecedent the

by

sequent,
guage,
we

consequence.

Using

this

lan
to

probability belongs exclusively probability

which number From this addition of
any

consequences, the both the the number

occur

consequence and

is

antecedent of all the

consequent
in which deduced of

divided

by

the

times
are

antecedent

occurs.

definition and

following

rules

for

the

multiplication

probabilities:
Rule
rate

for

the

Addition
two

of Probabilities.
consequences

"

Given the

the
same

sepa
ante

probabilities of
and
two

having
Then of

cedent these

incompatible
numbers is the

consequents.

the

sum

of

probability
April, 1878.
82

the

consequence,

Popular

Science

Monthly,

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

83
of those
con

that from

the

same

antecedent

one

or

other

sequents follows.
Rule

for the Multiplicationof Probabilities.

consequences,

"

Given
"

the then

of the two separate probabilities

If A

B,"

and

"

If both
two

and

B,

then

C."

Then

the product
conse

of the quence,

these
"

numbers
then both B

is the and

probabilityof the
C."

If

A,

Special Rule
abilities.
"

for the Multiplicationof Independent Prob

the
same

Given
the

of two separate probabilities

conse

quences
"

having
then

antecedents,
that these is

"

If

A,

then

B,"
are

and such

If

A,

C."

Suppose

consequences

that the

of probability
"

the second If both A

equal B,

to

the C."

probability
Then the

of the consequence,

and
is

then

product

of the two

given numbers
"

equal to the probability

B
we

of the consequence, To show the

If

A,

then

both rules

and
may

C." examine
is the

working
to

of these

the

in regard probabilities

throwing
one a

dice. die?

What The

prob

abilityof throwing
here is the
a

six with

antecedent its
are

event

of As

throwing

die;
six

the

consequent,
of which

turning up
turned up the any up
one

six.

the die has

all sides,

with is

equal frequency, the probabilityof turning

".

Suppose

two

dice The

are

thrown, what

is

of throwing probability

sixes?
same

probabilityof
both
are

either

coming up six is obviously the

as

when The does

thrown

when

one come

is thrown up

"

namely, -".
the other

probabilitythat
is also the does
or same

either will
as

six when
up

that of its

coming

six whether

the other

not.
our

The

probabilities are, therefore,independent; and, by

events

rule, the probabilitythat both

is the

will

happen together
X

product

of their several

or probabilities, "

".

What

84
is the that the

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

probabilityof throwing
first die will turn
as

deuce-ace?
ace

The the

probability
deuce sixes
"

the
same

up

and both the

second up

is

the the

probabilitythat probability that

will turn second

namely, ^;
ace

will turn
two

up
"

and

the

deuce first

is likewise

^g-; these
ace;

events

first, ace;
are

second, deuce; and, second,

Hence either the will rule
come

deuce first,

"

incompatible. probabilitythat
is "

for addition up
ace

holds, and
the other

the

and

deuce

+ ^,
all

or

In this way

problems about
of dice
may

dice,etc., may
is

be solved.
very of

When

the

number

thrown be

supposed
as

large, making
with

mathematics groups certain

to

(which

defined

the
to

art
our

facilitate numeration)
to

comes

aid

devices

reduce

the

difficulties.

The the is

conception of probabilityas
times
an

matter
occurrence

of

as fact,i.e.,

proportion of

in which

an

of

one

kind

accompanied by
Mr. Venn the

occurrence

of another view of
as

kind, is

termed But the

by

materialistic been

the

subject.

probability has degree of

this mode

often

regarded
to attach

being simply
a

belief which of

ought

to

proposition,and by
mixed the Venn the the
two

explaining the
Most

idea

is termed have

view. conceptualistic

writers

define conceptionstogether. They, first,

an

probabilityof
taken
state

event

as

the is

reason

we

have

to

believe

that it has

place,which

but shortly after they conceptualistic; of

cases

that it is the ratio of the number

event

favorable
or

to

the

to

the

total number

of

cases

favorable

contrary,

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

85
introduces in

and

all

equally possible.
unclear idea of

Except
cases

that

this

the

thoroughly
of the been
cases

equally possible
is
a

place
of has

equally frequent,
view. The

this pure Mr.

tolerable

statement

materialistic best or,

conceptualistic theory
De

expounded
the

by

Morgan

in

his

Formal and

Logic:
Probable. The the

Calculus

of

Inference,

Necessary

great

difference
refer it the of
a

between

the

two to
an

analyses is, that

event,
of

conceptualists
make

probability
ratio
over

while

the of
a

materialists

of

frequency
that

events

species
two

to

those
instead

genus
one.

species, thus
may

giving
made

it
to

terms
as

of

The

opposition

be

appear

follows:
that
we

Suppose
of all the

have
to

two

rules
solution

of inference, such
of which
to

that,
can

questions
the first
to
answers

the

both

be
in

applied,
correct

yields
the
to

correct

answers

3%,
the

and

answers

remaining
-ffa, and

T-";

while

second
to

yields

correct

incorrect that the

so

answers

the
are

remaining

-^.

Suppose,
as

further,
their

two

rules the

entirely independent
answers

to

truth,

that

second
an

correctly A3o correctly,

answers

of also

the

questions
the

which

the

first

swers

and

-ffa of
and

questions

which the

the
re

first

incorrectly,
y^-g- of
also the the

answers

incorrectly
the first

maining

questions remaining

which

answers

correctly,and
the the first
answers

TJ0- of the questions which

of be all the

incorrectly. Then,
both

questions
"

to

solution

of which

rules

can

applied

86

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

both

answer

correctly

.-^
.

of

93 X
"

or
100 100

8l;
100'
"

100

the second

answers

and correctly

the first incorrectly

"

of

"

or

"

100

100

100

100

the second

answers

and incorrectly

the first correctly

"

of
100

"

or

"

"

100

100

100

and

both

answer

incorrectly

" . . .

of

7
"

X X

*9
:

or
100

100

100

100

Suppose,

now,

that, in reference
Then

to

any

question, both

give the
such
to
as

same are

answer.

(the questions being always

yes
are or

to

be answered
answers

by

no),
same

those
as

in reference those which

an

which
answer

their

agree

the

both

correctlytogether with
93
ioo

those
x X

which

both

swer

or falsely,

x X

8l +
100

7
100

*9
100

of

all.

The

proportion of those
their
answers

which

both agree

answer

correctlyout
"

of those

to

which
X8i
ioo

is, therefore

93
IOQX

93 X8i
"f

93
ioo

X X

81
ioo ioo

7 x
X

19
ioo

(93 X 81)

(7 X 19).
both modes of We of
cases ex

This inference may

is,therefore,the probabilitythat, if yield the

same

that result, make

use

result is correct. another mode

here

conveniently

of

pression. Probability is
all the this
cases.

the ratio of the

favorable

to

Instead
may

of

expressing our
use cases.

result in terms
"

of of be
true

ratio, we
to

make

of

another This

the

ratio

favorable

unfavorable of
an

last

ratio may of
a

called the chance

answer

event.

Then
inference
a

the chance
is f"
answer

by

the

first mode the chance is

"

of

and from

by

the

second when

is ^ ; and

of

correct

both,

they

agree,

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

87

?LX_*L
or

81
x

93 7
a yielding singly

19

19

or

the

product

of the chances

of each

true

answer.

It will be any there

seen

that

chance

is

quantitywhich
An
a

may

have favor An
re-

magnitude,
is
an even

however

great.
or

event

in whose

chance,
an even

has
,

probabilityof ^.
do

argument

having

chance

can

nothing

toward

enforcing others, since according to

with another
i.

the rule its combination the chance

would

only multiply

of the

latter

by

Probabilityand
consequences, and

chance
are

undoubtedly belong primarily to

to

relative the

premises;
of
an

but

we

may,

speak nevertheless, meaning by

ments

of

chance

event

absolutely,
of all argu

that the chance

to

of the combination exist for

sense us

in reference

it which Taken

in the

given state

of

our

knowledge.
of
our an

in this has
an

it is incontestable connection with

that the chance the

more

event

intimate

degree of
than this
a

belief in it.

Belief is there
to

certainlysomething
of believing, feeling with all the chance the of

mere

feeling; yet
and

is

and the

feelingdoes

ought
deduced

vary from

thing believed, as

arguments.

Any quantity which

it would seem,
serve

varies with
as a

the chance

might, therefore,
for the proper is in
one

thermometer all such

tensityof
which is

belief.

Among

quantitiesthere
there is a very very
never

peculiarly appropriate. When

to be

great
Ab

of belief ought chance, the feeling

intense.

solute certainty, or

an

infinite be

chance, can

be attained

by mortals, and
an

this may As

represented appropriatelyby
diminishes the

infinite belief.

the chance

feelingof

88

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

should believing where toward becomes should

as

diminish,until

an

even

chance
not

is

reached,
either chance

it should
or

completely vanish
from
a

and

incline the

away

the

proposition. When

then less, increase in

contrary belief should

the chance it can
an

spring up and
and diminishes,
never

as intensity

the chance

almost

vanishes tend

(which
toward

quitedo) intensity.
any the

the contrary belief should

infinite

Now,

there

is

one

quantity which, more

is the

simply than logarithm of

which

other, fulfills these conditions;it

chance. if But

there is another
us

consideration for
our

must,
It of

admitted, fix
our

to this choice

thermometer.
the which

is that

belief

ought

to be

to proportional

weight
are

evidence,in

this sense, that

two

arguments
nor

en

tirelyindependent, neither
each

weakening
concur,
to

strengthening
a

other,ought, when
to

they

produce

belief

equal
would chances

the

sum

of the

intensities of belief which

we

either
the

produce separately. Now,

of

have

seen

that
are

independent

concurrent

arguments
of their

to

be

multiplied togetherto get

the chance

combination,
the in

the quantities which and, therefore,

best express

tensities of belief should

when the chances
are

be such

that

they
order

are

to

be added
the

multipliedin

to

produce

quantitywhich
the

corresponds to

the combined

chance.

Now,

logarithm is the only quantity which

There
is
a

fulfills this condi

tion.

generallaw

of

called Fechner's sensibility, of intensity the any

sensa

law. psychophysical
tion is which

It is that the the

proportionalto produces it.

of feeling latter

logarithm of

external force
with this law the

It is

in harmony entirely be
as

that the

belief should

the

logarithm of

chance, this
which

being the expressionof

the state of facts

produces the belief.

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

89
concurrent

The

rule for the combination

takes
a

of

independent
when

arguments
terms

very

simple

form

expressed

in

of the

measured intensityof belief, Take

in the

proposed

way. which

It is this: would be

the

sum

of all the

of belief feelings the

produced separately by all

that the similar of feeling
sum

arguments
con,

pro, subtract
and
to

from

for arguments
we

the have

remainder
on

is the whole.

belief which

ought
men

the

This the
name

is

proceeding

which

often resort These

the

to, under

of

balancing reasons.
an

considerations

constitute The

argument

in favor the
con

of

view. conceptualistic

kernel

of it is that in
our

joint probability of
with with is

all the

arguments
be

possession,

reference
the

to

any

fact,must
our

intimately connected fact; and

the
our

justdegree of

belief in that others with any

this

point

supplemented by theory with

various

showing

consistency knowledge.
express
a

of the But

itself and have

the rest of
at

to probability,

value

must all,

fact.
Let us,

It

a thing to be inferred is,therefore,

upon

evidence.
of
a

then, consider

for

moment
we

the have
a

formation

be

lief of

probability. Suppose
which under
one a

large bag
at

of beans and

from hidden

has

been

secretly taken
We
are now

random
a

thimble.

to

form

probable singly
thrown

judgment
from the

of the color of that

bean, by drawing
each
one

others
to

bag
the

and

looking at them,
well
mixed

be

back, and Suppose

conclude
either that
ment

whole

up and

after each
the next

drawing.
We

the first that

drawing

is white
an

black.

there

is not

immense

preponderance of
like
an even

and color, bean be

that there the

is

something

chance

the may

under altered

thimble
the next

is black. few

But

this When

judg
we

by

drawings.

90

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

have

drawn

ten

times, if 4, 5,
the chance about is

or

6, are

white, we
When
we

have have

more

confidence
a

that

even.

drawn have
sure

thousand

times, if

half

have We

been
now

white, we
feel

great confidence

in this result.
to

pretty

that, if
color of

we

were

make drawn

large number
from the

of bets upon could

the

singlebeans
insure

bag, we

approxi
time

mately
upon

ourselves

in the

long run
which

by bettingeach
be
1,000

the

white, a
of

confidence

would

entirelywant drawings,
we

ing if,instead
had done
so

sampling
two.
us

the

bag by
as

by only
insure

Now,

the

whole and
as

of utility that
assur

probabilityis to
ance

in the
on

long run,
value

depends,
on

not

merely

the

of the

chance,
that

but
we

also

the
not

accuracy
to

of the the
same

evaluation,it feelingof
is
even. one

follows in

ought
to

have

belief In

reference
ex

all events

of which
state

the chance of
our

short, to
but

press
are

the proper

not belief,
on

number inferred
on our

two

the requisite, second

first
on

depending
amount

the

proba
which knowl

the bility, that

the

of

knowledge
that made when many

probabilityis
is very the the

based.2

It is true
we

edge
from
when

precise,when
or,
as

have of the

drawings books,

bag,

in most of

examples
are

in the

total contents which

the the

bag

absolutely known,
assumed
ex

the number

expresses its

uncertainty of the

probabilityand perience may

when
more our

to be changed by liability

further

become

or utterlyvanish. insignificant,

But,
be
even we

knowledge
than

is very the
at

this slight,

number

may

important
no

and probabilityitself;

when

have

knowledge
should
error

all this

completely

overwhelms

the

Strictly we

need of the

an

infinite series of numbers last.

each

depending

on

the

probable

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

91

other,so that there is

of the

no

sense

in is

saying that (for what

is

the chance expresses what

unknown totally
fact has

event

even

no absolutely

no meaning), and absolutely

ought
We

to

be said is that the chance

indefinite. entirely

thus

perceivethat
in that

the
some

view, though conceptualistic

cases, is

answeringwell enough Suppose bag

were

quiteinadequate.
drew
an

the first bean

That would

which

we

from

our no was

black.
how

constitute

argument,

matter

that the bean under the thimble slender, If the second be

a

also black. that would

bean

were

also to turn out

black,

second

independentargument

reenforcing
drawn

the first. If the

whole

of the first twenty beans

should prove
was

black,our

confidence that the hidden

considerable
were

bean

black would
the

attain justly

strength. But
white
we

suppose
we were

bean twenty-first

to be

and
had

that

to go on

drawing until we
beans

found that
ones.

drawn

1,010

black beans and 990 white

our

We black

should conclude
was

that

first twenty

being

simply

an

and extraordinary accident, white beans

even

that in fact the

of proportion
that it was Yet
an

to black

was

and sensibly equal,

chance

that the hidden

bean

was

black.

accord

ing to
of the

the rule of
are

balancing reasons,
so

since all the

drawings
in favor

of black beans
one

many

independent arguments beingblack,and

excess

under many

the thimble

all the white

drawings so
beans
hidden bean

againstit,an
same

of twenty

black

ought to produce the

was

degree of

belief that the drawn.

black,whatever
of

the total number

In the

view conceptualistic the

probability, completeigno
to swerve

rance, where
or

judgment ought not

either toward the

away

from

the

is represented hypothesis, by

prob

ability ^
3

belief inclining "Perfect indecision, neither way,

an

even

chance."

"

DE

MORGAN,

p. 182.

92

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

But

let

us

suppose

that

we

are

totallyignorant what
have. Let us,

colored
take
a

hair

the inhabitants in which another

areas

of Saturn

then,

color-chart into
one

all possible colors

are

shown In

shading
such
a

by

imperceptible degrees. occupied by

Let
us

chart
are a

the relative

different classes inclose such

on an con-

of colors
area

arbitrary. perfectly
and closed line, ask

with

what

is the chance of the hair The in do

some

ceptualistic principles that

inhabitants
cannot

the

color
that
we

of
answer

the

of Saturn

falls within because

area? be

be indeterminate

must

state

of

writers belief;and, indeed, conceptualistic

not

admit

indeterminate
the matter, the numerical

probabilities.As
answer

there
zero

is

no

certainty in
unity.
number

lies between

and

As

no

value

is afforded

by the data, the

of from the

must

be

determined
not

by

the

nature

scale of

probability
The
answer

and itself, can,

by calculation
be

the data.

only therefore,
favor
nor

one-half,since the judgment

the other

should of

neither this
true
area

oppose of any
area

hypothesis. What
one; and the
areas

is true

is true
a

it will other

equally be
two.

of

third

which each

embraces

But

the

probabilityfor

of the smaller
at

being one-half,
is absurd.

that for the

largershould be

least

unity,which

in

All

our

reasonings are
deductive;
2.

of two

kinds:

i.

ana Explicative,

or lytic,

Amplifiative,synthetic,or
In

(loosely
facts in

speaking)inductive.
are

explicative reasoning,certain premises.

These facts may

first laid case,

an

down

in the

are,

every

inexhaustible

multitude,but they

often

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

93

be

summed

up

in

one runs

simple propositionby

means

of take

some

regularitywhich

through
was a

them
man;

all. this
a

Thus,

the
no

propositionthat Socrates further)that during

life
was

implies (to go

every

fraction of

second

of his whole of

(or,if
a man.

you

please,during the greater part

He
as

them)
as a or

he
tree

did
a

not

at

one

instant

appear

and pear

at

another

dog;

he

did not
you
an

flow into water,

not

ap

in two him

places at
as

once;
were

could

put your
etc.

finger Now,
some

through
the facts
not

if he thus

optical image,
some

being

laid

down,
use

order

among

of

them,

made particularly
may

of for the purpose

of stat

ing them,
us

perhaps be discovered; and

or

this will enable

to

throw

part

all of them

into

new

statement, the
attention.

of possibility
a

which

might have

escaped
of
an

Such

statement

will be the conclusion

are

analyticinference.
But syn

Of this sort
thetic summed in
sees

all mathematical of another conclusion

are m

demonstrations. kind.
are

reasoning is
up in the

In
not

this among

case

the facts
stated
one

those when that

the

premises. They
the
next
our

different
and the

facts, as

that

tide rises time. real

times
are

concludes

it will which others

rise the increase may

These

only inferences
useful the

knowledge, however

be.

In any tive

problem
of

in

we probabilities,

have
we

given

the

rela
in

frequency

certain

events, and

perceive that
event

these facts the relative

in
a

frequency being

of another makes

is

given

hidden

way.

This

stated

the

solution. is evi

This

mere is,therefore,

explicativereasoning, and
the

dently entirely inadequate to reasoning, which

goes
out

of synthetic representation the facts

beyond

given

in

the

94

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

premises.
so

There any

is,therefore,a probabilityfor
on

manifest
a

in impossibility

tracingout
Most

syntheticconclusion.
a

treatises

probability contain example,

of the
to
m

very if
one

different of the

doctrine. ancient had and that

never

They
denizens heard there
was seen a

state, for
of of the

that

shores

Mediterranean, who
the

tides,had

gone

bay

of

Biscay,
know

had

the tide

rise; say

times,he could
to

there

probability equal
m

+ +

that

it would

rise the

next

time.
on

In

well-known
it is made

work
the

by Quetelet,much
foundation But
case

stress

is laid

this,and

of

theory of inductive betrays

man
m

reasoning.
we

this solution in which the

its
never

origin if
seen

apply

it to the

has
o.

the

tide rise at

all;

that

is,if we

put

In this case, the

comes

probabilitythat
in other

it will rise the the solution is

an even

next

time
the
a

out

^,

or,

words,
there

involves of

conceptualistic principlethat
event.

chance it has of
urns

unknown totally reached has

The

manner

in which number

been all

been
same urn

by considering a
number contains of

containing the
black.
and

balls,

part white

and
one

part

One
the
so

all white third

two

balls,another
black and the

black

rest

white,
urn

rest
an urn

white, and
is reached

on,

one

for each

pro balls.

portion,until
But
tween

containingonly black
for

the

only possible reason

an

drawing

any

analogy be
is the
must

such

arrangement

and

that of Nature
we

prin
be
ab

ciple that
considered
surd.

alternatives
as

of which

know But this

nothing

equally probable.
is
an

principleis

There

indefinite

variety of

ways

of enumerat-

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

95

ing the
this way all but

different

possibilities, which, give different

the

on

the

applicationof
If there be any

would principle,
of

results.
as

enumerating
is not

so possibilities

to

make

them

equal, it
is the

that

from

which
we

this solution is had

an

derived,
granary

following: Suppose
black
urn were

immense
up; number relative

filled with pose from each

and

white filled

balls well mixed

and

sup

by taking a fixed
random. The

of balls

this granary

quite at

number
one

of white three.

balls in the granary

Then in one-third in two-thirds the first ball
was

might be anything, say

of the
urns

in

the In

first ball would of those

be white, and
urns

black.

one-third

of which

white, and
was we

also in one-third second

a

of those would

in which

the first ball

In this way, in the b for

black, the
should have

ball

be white.
shown

distribu
w

tion like that for

a

followingtable,where
a

stands
can,

white

ball and

black

one.

The

reader

if he

chooses, verify the table for himself.

wwww.

wwwb. wwwb.

wwbw. wwbw.

wbww. wbww.

bwww. bwww.

bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb.

are

In

the second
sets

group,

where

there is

one

b,
are

there 4, in

two

just alike; in 8,
and in the
we

the third fifth have

there

the

fourth This black

16, doubling every

time.
many
we

is because

supposed twice
as

as

bbbb.
bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. bbbb. suppose
were

balls in the granary

10

white

ones; of

had

supposed

times

as

many,

instead

i,

2,

4,

8,

16

sets

we

should

have

had

i,

10,

100,

1000,

10000

sets;
and would
two

on

the other balls been

were

hand,
in but the
one

had

the

numbers been

of black
even,

white have balls

to be
one

granary
set

there Now and

in each
one

group.
urns

drawn

from

of these be the drawn

next to

found
next

both

white, what
white?

would
two

probability
out
were

of the the
out

being

If the and the

first two
were

put into the urns,

the

be

drawn

the third put would be

in, then
the
same

probabilityof
the

this third of the pro which

being

white

whatever that

colors
same

first two, for it has

been

supposed

just the
among

portion of
have
the

urns

has

the third ball white

those

first two

white-white, white-black, black-white.

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

97

and

black-black.

Thus,
would

in this case, the chance the

same

of the third

ball being white

were.

be

whatever reader

the first two

can see

But, by inspectingthe table,the

group
so

that fre
are

in each quency, drawn colors

all orders it makes

of the
no were

balls

occur

with whether

equal they
Hence
on

that

difference

out

in the order

they

put in
have white
or

or no

not.

the the

of the balls any

already
other

drawn

influence

of probability

being
of

black.
the

Now,
of Nature
one

if there
so as

be any
to make

way them
one

enumerating

possibilities

equally probable, it is clearly

arrangement
or

which

should

make

combination

of the
a

elements

of Nature
we

as

probable

as

another, that is,

and

distribution like that

that leads the

have

supposed,
that any

therefore, it,

appears

assumption
to

such that

thing

can

be from

done,
past
the

simply

the

conclusion

reasoning
In

to

future

experience is absolutelyworthless.
you
are assume

fact,
of

moment

that
we

that

the

chances even,

in favor the

that of which

totally ignorant are

not

problem particu equally

heads that inde
an

about

the tides does the

come case

in differ,
a

any

arithmetical

lar,from likelyto
m

in which heads In

penny

(known

to be turn
to

up

and

tails)should
be

up

times

successively.
is
a

short, it would
or

assume

Nature

pure

chaos,

chance

combination
one

of

pendent elements, in which

other would be

reasoning from since,as

we

fact to

impossible; and judgment

be
to

shall hereafter without

reason

see, there is no

of pure

observation

ing, it
and that
no

would real
we

suppose

all human

cognition illusory
be
to

knowledge possible.
have found the order

It would of
a

suppose
or

if

Nature pure
run

more

less

regularin

the past, this has been

by

of luck which

98
we no

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

may

expect is

now

at
to

an

end.

Now,

it may
reason

be
is

we

have

scintilla of proof
in

the contrary, but belief

or

unneces

sary

reference

to

that

which
can

is of

all the and which

most

settled,which
who should

nobody
would

doubts

doubt,
in
so

he

deny

himself stultify
this
or

doing.
of talk
we

The

relative is

probabilityof
which
as we

that have

arrangement
a

Nature about
could draw tion

something

should
as

right to

if universes

were

plenty
in
a

blackberries,if
shake
to
see

put
out

a a

quantity of sample,
had
even

them

bag,
them

them what

well up,
propor

and

examine

of

them

one

arrangement
case,
a

and

what

proportion
would

another. contain of

But,
us, in

in that
to

higher

universe the

regard

whose
no

arrangements

conception

probabilitycould

have

applicability.

IV

We

have

examined

the

problem proposed by
into clear

the

con-

which, ceptualists,
Given
a

translated

language,
to

is this: of all
as

syntheticconclusion; required
of

know

out

possiblestates signed extent,

that it is

things how
this absurd that
no

many

will

accord, to
we

any

with
an

conclusion;
attempt
definite
to

and

have

found

only

reduce

synthetic to
is

analyticreason,
But there

and

solution

possible.
this sub

is another

problem
a

in connection
state

with

ject.
to to

It is this: what

Given

certain all

of

things,required relating

know

proportion of
true

syntheticinferences
of

it will be there

within

given degree
this has

approximation.
for

Now,

is

no

about difficulty

problem (except
been much

its mathematical

complication); it

studied,

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

99

and after

the

answer we we

is

well perfectly
to know to

known. rather

And
than

is not

this,

what all, should accord

want want
our

much the

the other?
fact
we one

Why
will
are

know

probabilitythat the
That
not

with

conclusion?

implies merely

that the

interested
we

in all find

possibleworlds,and

in which
more

ourselves
to know

placed. Why
the fact? the

is it not
our

much
con

to

the purpose will accord

probabilitythat
One
other of these the of

clusion is the ask

with stated

the and

questions
and word
own

first above

second, using the

the reader

whether, if people, instead

any

probability without meaning,

could have had

clear

apprehension of their
of relative

always spoken
see

frequency, they
was

failed to
the

that

what

they wanted
with
an

not

to

follow

along
to

syntheticprocedure

analytic one,

in order the

find the
to

probabilityof the conclusion; but, on

with the back fact at which
to

contrary,

begin
and
to

the it

synthetic
uses

inference

aims,
in order

follow
see

the

facts

for

premises
as

the

of probability

their

being such

will As
we

yield the
cannot

truth. have
an urn

with

an

infinite number
of

of
us

balls

to

represent the
one

inexhaustibleness

Nature, being
that of
are

let

suppose back
no

with the
urn

finite after

number,
drawn

each

ball
so

thrown

into

being

out,
ball four

there
three drawn.

is is

exhaustion and the of

of them.

Suppose
and

one

out

white
Then quency

the rest
table the
on

black,
pages

that

balls

95-96 represents the relative fre

ways in which
we

different
seen

these

balls

might

be drawn. four
we

It will be

that if the

should urn, 32
1

judge by these
times
we

balls of the

proportion in
24

out

of 81

should

find it ^, and

times

out

of 8

should

find it

ioo

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

i, the
would
some

truth being $.

To

extend the

this table to mathematicians what

high numbers
have found would balls

be great labor, but

ingenious ways
It is found
5

of

reckoning
the
true

the numbers white

be.

that,if
are

proportion of
the
"

is p, and

balls

drawn,

then

error

of the

proportion

obtained

by

the induction

will be

half the time

within

0.477

\l

9 times

out

of

10

within

1.163

\/" \l

"

99

times

out

of

ioo

within

1.821

999

times

out

of 1,000

within

2.328 V/-^

"

9,999

times

out

of 10,000

within

2.751

%/"

"

9,999,999,999

times

out

of 10,000,000,000

within

4.77

\l

The the

use

of this may of

be

illustrated that under of the the

one same

by

an

example.

By

census

1870, it appears
white colored children children The
a ioo.

proportion of
year

males

among while
was or or

native among

old

was

0.5082,

age

the

proportion
is 0.0105,
to

only 0.4977.
about
would white
one

difference

between

these

in

Can

this be

attributed
a

chance,

the difference and colored

always
children

exist among under like

great number

of

circumstances? is also
near

Here

p may
of

be taken
white

at

i;

hence

2p (i"p)
was

-J.

The

number hence
a6oo66Q-

children
whose

counted

1,000,000; is about

the fraction The

square-root is to be taken r""v" and

this

root

is about
as

multipliedby
in the ratio

0.477

gives about

0.0003

the probable error

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

101

'ofmales
The

among of

the whites

as

obtained
was

from

the induction.
150,000, which

number

black

children

about We
see

gives 0.0008

for the
ten

probable error.
the
sum our

that the actual

discrepancy is
would

times

of

these,and table, only

such
once

result
out

happen, according
censuses,

to

of

10,000,000,000 It may

in the

long

run.

be remarked

that when

the real value of the very

prob
small,
were
we

ability sought inductivelyis either

the in
were

large or
suppose certain

very there urn,

reasoning realityone
to

is

more

secure.

Thus,
100

white

ball in

in
100

and

judge of

the number
no

by

drawings.
be

The

prob
of

abilityof drawing drawing

would that
one

white

ball would

""""$] that

white

ball would of

be ^flfr; that of drawing two

three that

be

^""5', that

drawing
be
Thus

would
of

be

yf^;
five

of drawing four would be only T^f

etc.

xJ^;
we

drawing

would

should
than
we

be tolerably cer ball in

100.

tain of not

being

in

error

by
in
one

more sense

one

It appears,
we

then, that

can, and

in another

cannot, determine
I
reason

the

probabilityof syntheticinference.

When

in this way: in
a a

Ninety-nine Cretans
But

hundred

are

liars;

Epimenides

is

Cretan;
is
a

Therefore,Epimenides
I know times in that
100.

liar:
to

"

reasoning similar
But when I

that would in the

carry

truth 99

reason

opposite direction:
and

Minos, Sarpedon, Rhadamanthus, menides,

But
are

Deucalion, of;

Epi

all the Cretans

were

can

think

these

all atrocious
much

liars,
must

Therefore,pretty
I do
not

all Cretans how often

have

been

liars;

in the least know

such

reasoning would

102

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

carry that

me some

right. On

the

other

hand,

what

I do
must

know

is

definite proportion of Cretans

that this induction for about the half

have

been

and liars,
to

proportioncan
from five
or

be

probably approximated
Even in the

by

an case

six instances. such

an

worst

of probability the

inference,that
ratio than the
so

in which tained much is that may

Cretans be in

are error

the liars,

ob
So

would I

probably

not

by

more case

".

know; but, then, in the present

all Cretans
are

inference there

pretty much
be
a

and liars, that

whether I do
not

not

specialimprobability in

know.

Late

in the last century, Immanuel How

are

Kant
a

asked

the ques
"

tion,

"

judgments synthetical
he
meant

prioripossible?
as

judgments By synthetical
fact and
are

such

assert

positive
in

not

mere

affairs which

of

arrangement;

short,

judgments of
and which

the kind

synthetical reasoning produces,

cannot

analytic reasoning
he meant
event

yield. By

priori
in

judgments
space,

such has
can a

as

that all outward cause, be

to

objectsare

every
to

etc., propositions which

inferred
from

according
Not
so

him

never

experience.
the
was mere

much of

by

his

answer

this

question as by
of that time

asking
tered

it,the

current

philosophy
a new

shat

and

destroyed, and
But before

epoch

in its

history was
to

begun.
asked

asking

that
"

question he ought
How
are

have

the

more

general

one,
"

any
a

synthetical
man can

judgments
serve one

at

all

possible?

How

is it that pronounce

ob
con

fact another

and

straightway

judgment
in the

cerning

different fact

not

involved

first?

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION

103

Such
sense can

reasoning,as
of it add Abbe the
to

we

have
no

seen,

has, at

least in the usual

phrase,
our

definite

probability; how, then,

is
a

knowledge?
says it is
a

This

strange paradox;
that
on a

the

Gratry
is
an

and miracle,

every

true

induction

immediate

inspirationfrom
more

high.4

respect this explanation far attempt

to

than
some

many

pedantic proba
I
re

solve the

the

question by
of
an

juggle with
what
not.

with bilities,

forms it shows it

syllogism,or

spect it because
the
cause

appreciation of adequate
"

the

depth of
and

problem, because
it is

assigns an
connected

cause,
true

be

intimately
with
a

as

the of

account

should At
an

be
same

"

general philosophy
do
not

the

universe.

the

time, I

because accept this explanation,

a

explanation should
a

tell how
seems

thing is done,
be
an

and

to

as

sert

perpetual miracle
of

to

abandonment

of all

hope

doing that, without

to interesting
see

sufficient how the

justification.
answer

It will be gave
to

which
a.

Kant

his

question
if extended

about
to

syntheticaljudgments
the

priori

will appear
ments ments true

question of synthetical judg is,that syntheticaljudg

whatever of is

in
a

general. prioriare

That

answer

possiblebecause
in the conditions

universally
Let
us

is involved
to
a

experience.

apply this
a

general synthetical reasoning.

of

I take

from

bag

handful
beans

beans; they
in the the

are

all

purple, and
How
can

I infer I do

that

all the

bag

are

purple.

that?

Why,

upon

that principle

whatever

is univer

sallytrue
4

of my
The

experience(which
same

is here

the appearance
performance
us

Logique.
the

is true, according to
not

him, of every
does the
not

of

but differentiation,

of integration. He which makes

tell

whether
BO

it is much

supernatural

assistance

former

process

the easier.

104

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

of

these

different
The

beans)
condition
were

is involved of this from

in the

condition

of

experience.

special experience is
that

that all these beans

to

taken

bag.
true

According
of all the

Kant's

principle, then, whatever

from the the

is found find of its

beans
some

drawn

bag

must

explanation in
This is
a

of peculiarity

contents

the

bag.

statement satisfactory

of the deductive

of principle
or a

induction.

When

we

draw

our analyticconclusion,

rule of inference
are

is that facts of in
a

certain

generalcharacter
cases

either

invariablyor

certain

proportion of

accompanied by
our

facts of another

general character.
we class,

Then

premise being a
with of
a

fact of the former the

infer with

certainty or
the existence for

appropriate degree
second
a

of

probability
the When
assume

fact of the is of
we

class.

But

rule
we

syntheticinference
a

different

kind.

sample

bag
some

of beans beans

do

not

in the least

that

the fact of
or even

being purple involves

other beans of
to

the
so.

necessity
On
the

the

of probability

being

method contrary, the conceptualistic

treatingprobabili
deductive
to

ties,which
ment

reallyamounts

simply

the

treat

of
a

them, when

rightlycarried
has

out

leads
even

the result in its color But

that

syntheticinference
in other is words is

just an

chance The

favor,or
of
one

worthless. absolutely

bean

entirely independent of
is founded upon
a

that of another.

inference synthetic
not
ner

classification of facts,
the
man

accordingto
of

their

but according to characters,

Its rule will in

obtainingthem.
in
a

is,that

number
or

of facts less
re

obtained semble
ences

given

way

general more
same

other whose

facts obtained
conditions
are

in the the
same

way;

or,

experi
same

will have

the

general characters.

THE

PROBABILITY

OF

INDUCTION
i

105

In

the
in

former

case,
to

we

know

that

premises
ones

precisely yield
times. under
true

similar

form

those in

of
a

the

given

will
of

conclusions,
the
latter

just
we

once

calculable
that

number

In

case,

only
to

know the

premises
ones

obtained

circumstances themselves

similar

given
will

(though
true

perhaps
at

very in
a

different)
calculable
that

yield
of

conclusions,
We may inference
ex

least
press
we

once

number in of the

times. of

this know

by
the but

saying

case

analytic (if the

inferences

probability
in the of
case

our

conclusion

premises
we

are

true),
the

of

synthetic
of
our

only
As
must

know

degree

trustworthiness
from all the human

proceeding.
we

all

knowledge
infer

comes

synthetic certainty by
must

inference,
consists

equally
our

that that

merely knowledge
have led

in

knowing
been

processes such
as

which

our

has
true

derived

are

generally

to

conclusions.
a

Though
reduced hold that
to

synthetic
deduction,

inference

cannot

by
of from

any

means

be will

yet
run

that be of

the

rule

induction the

good

in

the is

long

may

deduced the final That of

out-

principle
to

reality

only

the

object
would the

opinion
belief

which

sufficient
tends
to

investigation
fix itself under with

lead. influence

gradually is, indeed,

inquiry

one

of

the

facts

which

logic

sets

FIFTH

PAPER

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE1

ANY
must
even

proposition
touch in
more

whatever
or

concerning

the In

order
our

of

Nature

less upon

religion.
more

day, belief,
upon

these of found

matters,
facts. in the and

depends
If
a

and and
must
to

more

the order
cause

observation liness for be

remarkable
there has

universal be
some

universe,
science for the

this

regularity,

consider One

what
way

hy
of the is

potheses might accounting

world is for

account

phenomenon.
be power. of
to

it, certainly, would

suppose But if

that there
to

ordered the

by

superior

nothing
nor

in the

universal
of

subjection
those laws

phenomena

laws,

in

character

themselves goes

(as being
to

benevolent, beautiful, economical, etc.),which

the be
to

prove
to

existence

of

governor any with other

of

the

universe, it is hardly
of evidence will from

anticipated weigh
very

that much

sort

be

found

minds

emancipated

the

tyr

anny

of tradition. it cannot decision

Nevertheless, lutely negative destroy

however essential

truly
of that
as

be

said

that

even

an

abso

question
there
are

could faiths

altogether
in

religion, inasmuch
much

which,
those

they

differ which

from

our

own,

we

recognize
to

characters and
Science

make

them

worthy
not

be

called
an

religions,
1

which,
Monthly,

nevertheless, do
June,
106

postulate

Popular

1878.

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

107

Deity. actuallyexisting
had the most
numerous on

That

one,
no

for

instance, which
the least
the

has

and

by

means

intelligent
his
a

followingof

any

earth,teaches
away

that

Divinity in
the world

is wrapped highest perfection

state

from

in

of

profound

and

eternal

sleep,which

really does by
that

not

differ from
or

whether non-existence, candid

can

it be called followed his

name

not.

No

mind

who

has that

the

writingsof
as

M.
as

Vacherot
can

well

deny
the

is religion

earnest

be.

He

worships
that the

Perfect,the Supreme
notion In
to

Ideal;
is
re

but

he

conceives
to

very

of

the

Ideal

pugnant
it is

its real existence.2

to

fact,M.
that

Vacherot

finds

agreeable
an

his

reason

assert

non-existence
as

essential and

character found

of it

the

perfect, just

St.

Anselm

Descartes

agreeable to

theirs to assert
one

the extreme which with stands himself

opposite.

I confess

that there is
to me

respect in
congruous which

either of these the

seems positions

more a

attitude religious

than
as

that
soon

of
as

theology

upon
to

evidences;
either Anselm

for
or

the and

Deity presents
manifests of the his

Vacherot,
it be in
a

whether gloriousattributes,
or

vision adorable the

night
and

day,

either his

of

them
at

recognizes his
once;

God,

sinks

upon

knees

whereas

theologian of

evidences

will first demand

that after

the divine

apparitionshall
his
cre

identifyhimself,and
dentials among and the

only
the

having

scrutinized his

weighed

of probabilities he

being

found his be

will of existences, totality that

to
no a

render finally characters

can

circumspect homage, thinking

adorable If
z

but could

those find

which
out
in

belong
any

real

thing.

we

general characteristic of the

[See Santayana, Reason

Religion.]

108

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

universe,any

mannerism

in the

ways

of

Nature,

any
a

law
dis
our

everywhere applicable and

covery future the if it would be of such

universallyvalid, such
to
us

singularassistance
it would deserve On
a

in all

reasoning, that
of be the shown every

place almost
the other
sort

at

head
can

principlesof logic.
that there is

hand,
to

nothing

of the

find

out, but
range, of
a

that

discoverable
of

regularityis

of

limited
sort

this

again

will be

logical importance. What

have of the
a

conception we
of the ensemble of

ought
of

to

universe,how

to

think in the

things,is

fundamental

problem

theory

reasoning.
ii

It is the
was

endeavor legitimate hundred

of scientific ago, of
to

men

now, for

as

it the

twenty-three
of the the

years

account

formation which
atoms.

solar

system and
the

the

cluster

of stars of asked of the

forms The he could without

"

galaxy, by

fortuitous

concourse

greatest expounder of this theory,when

write
one an

how

immense of

book
its de

on

the

system

world

mention pas is
was

author, replied,very
cette

logically, Je
But,
any in
more

n'avais

besoin

hypothese-la."
in the

truth, there
than be

nothing
in this

atheistical
answer.

theory,
is sup of

there

Matter

posed

to

composed
and
exert

of molecules certain

which

obey
upon is

the laws

mechanics
and

attractions

one no

another;
attempt
to

it is to these

regularities (which general arrangement

not
ever

there

account

for)
be

that and has

of the

solar

system

would

due,
one

to hazard.

If any pure throw

maintained

that

the

universe

is

of

the

dice, the theologians have

abundantly

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

109

refuted

him.
a

"

How

often/'
had

says

Archbishop
a

Tillotson,
a

"might

man,

after he
out

jumbled

set

of letters in

bag, fling them

fall into discourse made chance which the
an

upon

the
yea, may
or

ground before
so a

they would
make be
as
"

exact

poem, And

much

as

good easily
The

in prose ! chance
as

not

little book

by

this great volume shown be

one

of the world? different there from

were

world
we

here

to

be

so

that
no

in

live would
of

in which

laws,

characters
so a no

different
a

things being entirelyindepen

of any could kind

dent;
show and

that,should

sample

of objects ever

prevalent character, it general proposition

further conclusions

only be by accident,
ever come

could
we

be

established.
to

Whatever
to
as

may much

in

regard

the

order

of the

universe,thus

may
a

be
mere

regarded
chance-

that solidlyestablished,

the world

is not

medley.
But another

whether

the world
When

makes
we

an

exact

poem the
are

or

not, is
at

question.

look the

up

at

heavens
not not

night, we splashed on
to

readily perceive
to

that

stars

simply
seem

the

celestial

vault; but

there

does

be

any

precise system
our

in their

arrangement
the

either.

It of

will be

worth

while,then, to inquire into universe;and,

to

degree

orderliness the world

in the
we

begin,let

us

ask
a

whether

live in is any
would

more

orderly than

purely

chance-

world

be.
law of

Any uniformity,or form,

curved
"

Nature,

may of

be stated

in the
a non-

Every

is B

";

as, every

ray

light is
the

line,every
This which

body
is the is not

is accelerated
same as

toward
"

earth's
not

center, etc.
exist any A

to

say, is
no

There

does ray;

";

there

curved

there

no

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

is

no

body

not

accelerated
in the

toward
non-occurrence

the

earth;

so

that

the of
a

uniformity consists
certain bination every
acters
case

in Nature case, the

combination of

of characters with

(in this

com

being A
of the

being non-B).3 And, conversely,

of
a

non-occurrence a

combination Nature.

of char

would the

constitute is

uniformityin
found suppose with

Thus,
with

sup the

pose

qualityA
for

never

in combination the that

quality C:
never

example,

quality of idiocy is
of

found

in combination Then

having
A

well-

developed brain. C,
or

nothing of
A

the sort

is of the sort

everythingof
idiot has
an

the sort

is of the sort non-C

(or say,
some

every

ill-developed brain),which, being

of the
a

thing universallytrue
world. Thus
we see

A's, is
world

uniformityin
there
were

the
no

in that,

where

combination no uniformities, logically possible would

some some

of characters would
must

be

excluded,but
But
two

every

combination identical

exist in differ in

object.
of their

objectsnot

characters, though
a

it be

only in

the character

of
same

being in

such-and-such

place. Hence, preciselythe

could
not
a

combination

of characters

be found

in two every of if

different

in objects; and, consequently,

chance-world

combination
every there

involving either
would five them

the
to

positiveor just one

negative

character
were

belong

thing. Thus,
a

but

simple characters

in such and

world,4we negatives
be
con

might
3

denote
the much
or

by A, B, C, D, E,
purpose,
as

their

For
as

present
a

the the
not

negative of positive,for
say

a a

character

is to
may

sidered be

character

uniformity
can

either drawn

affirmative

negative.

I do

that

no

distinction

be

between
*

positive and

negative uniformities.
their
241

be
out 243

being 5 simple characters, with in various ways to make so as compounded counting the
or

There

negatives,they
characters make

could

in all,with up

characters

existence

and

which non-existence,

3?

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

in

by

a,

b, c, d, e; and
of
to

then, as

there

would

be

or

32

different

combinations in reference

these of

characters, completely determinate

each

them,

that world

would
as

have

just 32

objects
table:

in

it, their

characters

being

in

the

following

TABLE ABCDE ABCDe ABCdE ABCde ABcDE ABcDe ABcdE ABcde For AbCDE AbCDe AbCdE AbCde AbcDE AbcDe AbcdE Abcde

I. aBCDE aBCDe aBCdE aBCde aBcDE aBcDe aBcdE aBcde

abCDE
abCDe abCdE

abCde
abcDE

abcDe
abcdE abcde

example,

if the

five

primary

characters would be

were one was

hard,

sweet, fragrant, green,

which reunited

bright, there

object hard,
was

all these green,

one qualities,

which

sweet, fragrant,and

but

not

bright; one
not

which
one nor

hard, sweet, fragrant,and

was

bright,but

green; green

which

hard, sweet,
so on

and

but fragrant,

neither

bright;

and

through
a

all the combinations.

This and When

is what

thoroughly chance-world
could be
are

would
more

be

like,

certainlynothing
a

imagined poured
the

systematic.
of
a

quantity

of

letters is due

out

bag,
that

the the

appearance

of disorder
are

to

circumstance The laws

phenomena
are

only partly fortuitous.

in that
case,
amount

of space and

supposed,
a

to

be
of

rigidly preserved, regularityin

some

there is also tion of the

certain

the

forma
are

letters.

The

result

is that

elements

ii2

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

orderly
we

and

some

are

which disorderly,
world.

is

what precisely the

"

observe
a

in the

actual

in Tillotson,
on

passage

of which

part has been

blind
men

quoted, goes
which

to

ask,
sent up

How
out

long
from down fall

might

20,000

should

be

the several before

remote

parts of England, wander

all meet upon

and

they

would

Salisbury Plains,and
of
an

into rank

and

file in the exact

more

order

army?
than how

And the

yet
in

this is much numerable selves into

easy

to

be

imagined
should

blind
a

parts of matter
This are,
as

rendezvous in the

them

world."
men

is very far all.

as we

true, but
can

actual
up
cer

world
in any

the blind

see, not

drawn
a

particularorder
of order is not
so so as

at

And,

in

short,while
seem

tain amount the world

not
so

exists in the it

world, it would
for

that

orderly as
a

might be, and,

chance

instance,
be.

much
we can

world

of pure the bottom

would

But
we

never

get
of
a

to

of this

question until
5

take I

account
now

highly-important logicalprinciple
to
enounce.

which any in
to
"

proceed
lot of
matter

This have

principleis
some

that

or plurality common

objectswhatever
how

character is

(no
and
"

which insignificant)

peculiar
word include

them character

not

shared is taken

by

anything
a

else.
as

The
to

here

in such
as

sense

negative characters,such
well
as

inequality, incivility, etc.,as

To prove the and The

their

etc. equality, positives, civility,

theorem, B,
have

I will show in
common,

what
not
are

character shared

any

two

things,A
else.

by anything

things, A thingsby
named
5

and the

B,

each

distinguished from
characters which
to

all other
may

possessionof
and B-ness.

certain

be

A-ness

Corresponding
by
Mr.

these
Morgan.

posi-

This

principlewas,

I believe, first stated

De

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

113

tive is

are characters,

the

negativecharacters un-A-ness,which
and

possessedby everythingexcept A, everythingexcept B.

A

un-B-ness,which
two

is possessedby
are

These and

characters
this union
a com

united

in

everythingexcept
un-A-ness which may and

B;

and

of the characters

un-B-ness

makes

pound
is not

character

be termed
or

A-B-lessness.
it is

This

possessedby

either A

B,

but

possessedby other,has its

everythingelse.

This

like character,

every

and negativeun-A-B-lessness, corresponding character

this last is the

possessed by both A and

that what has thus

B,
been

and

by nothing else.
true

It is obvious

shown

of two

things is Q.
E. D. In any

mutatis

mutandis, true

of any

number

of

things.

world
each

then, there whatever, possible group

of

must

be

character
a

to peculiar

objects. If,as
the
same same

matter

of

nomenclature,characters only
say

peculiarto

group

be

regarded as
then
we

different aspects of the that there will be of

character,
character
a

may

one precisely

for each

possible group
five

objects. Thus,
Then 31

suppose

world
a

to contain

things,a, P, y, d, e.
for each up 32
or

it will have

separate character
existence

of the

groups

(with non-

making

25) shown
II.

in the

table: following

TABLE

ap

apy

apyd
apye

apyde

ae

ay5
aye

ayde

py

Pyde

U4

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

This

shows of
a

that

contradiction for in
or a

is involved world of 32

in the

very

idea6
stead
seen

chance-world,

things,in
we

of there

being only 3"

of
a

243

as characters,

have

that the notion

chance-world

there would, requires,

in

fact,be
would

no

less than
not

232,or

4,294,967,296 characters,
would
have all

which

be

all

independent, but
another.

possible relations
We further
see

with that

one so

long

as

we

regard

characters

without abstractly, there

ness

regard
a

to their relative
more or

importance, etc.,

is

no

of possibility

less of

degree

of orderli

in the

world, the
characters in those

whole

system

between relationship
mere

the different

being given by
facts which is any
are

logic;that is,
as

being implied
soon as we

admitted tacitly

admit
to

that there from the

such

thing as reasoning. point

of

In is
to

order

descend
consider

this abstract characters powers

a

view, it
relative In

to requisite

of of

things as

the

perceptionsand

active

livingbeings.
in which
in which to

stead,then, of attempting to imagine

should of the

world
one

there
none

be

no

uniformities,let
should
to

us

suppose

uniformities

have
us.

reference
In the
a

characters

or interesting

important

first

place, there
The the
to

would number would

be

nothing to puzzle us
of which qualities the
ones

in such

world.

small
senses

would
would

directlymeet
afford
us.

be

which

the

key

every uni

thing which
verse

could have there

possibly
such would
an

interest

The and ask.

whole

would

air of system be

perfect regu
In the
next

larity that place,no

nothing
no

to

action

of ours, and in

event
a

of

Nature, would
We

have be

important
6

consequences
idea but

such

world.
so

should

Not

in every

only in the

one

formulated.

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

115

perfectly free nothing

come

from

all
to

and responsibility,
or

there would

be
to
or

to do

but
Thus the

enjoy
there

suffer whatever be

happened
stimulate

along.
either

would
or

nothing to
we

develop
should

mind
nor

the We

will,and
should
our

consequently
no

neither act
that any

think.
on we a

have

memory, Even
a

because
if
we

depends
senses,

law

of

organization.
toward

had

should

be situated

such

world
one,

as precisely

inanimate suppose

objects are
that these

toward

the present
an

provided

we

objects have
consciousness

abso

lutely transitoryand
memory
"

instantaneous is
a

without of

supposition which
be
a no

mere

mode We
our

speech,
there world
van a

for that would

consciousness of chance
an

at

all.

may, actual

fore,say
viewed

that

world

is

simply
animal

from

the

standpoint of

at

the very

of intelligence.The ishing-point

actual world
The
an

is almost

chance-medley
the his uniformities

to

the mind of Nature

of

polyp.
for

interest which
measures

have

animal

place in

the scale of
can

intelligence.
made
out

Thus, nothing
Nature
in

be the

from of
a a

the

orderliness
unless proves

of

regard
that
an

to

existence
of

God,

it be the

maintained existence of

the

existence
one.

finite mind

infinite

in

In

the last of these papers

or

we

examined We found

the

nature

of
a

inductive
process
are

synthetic reasoning.
A number within in
a a

it to of
at
a

be

of

sampling.

of that

specimens
but class,

class

taken, not by specimens

it
were

selection will agree

random.

These

great number
lot would

of respects. agree with

If, now,

that likely

second

116

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

the
on

first in the

majority
an

of these

respects,
in

we

might base
one

this consideration characters. of But

inference
such
an

regard

to any

of

these

inference would
vast

would

neither

be

of the nature

nor induction,

it

(except in special
of

cases)

be

valid, because
in the first

the

majority
would

points

of

agreement

sample
well death
as

drawn

generally be
illustrate

as entirelyaccidental,

To insignificant.

I this,

take

the ages

at

of the first five

poets given in

Wheeler's

Biographical Dictionary. They

are:

Aagard, 48. Abeille,70. Abulola, 84. Abunowas, Accords,

48.

45.

These
1.

five ages have

difference

the

followingcharacters

in

common:

The

of the two
a

digitscomposing
remainder the power
a

the

num

ber, divided
2.

by three,leaves digit raised

to

of

one.

The

first and
sum

indicated remainder age,

by the
of
one.

second,
3. The one,

divided of the

by three, leaves prime

factors

of each

including

is divisible
to

by
see

three. that would the be number of accidental But agree suppose

It is easy
ments

of

this sort of

quite

endless. because
a

that,instead
alence
in

consideringa sample,
we

character

of its prev before obvious

the

designate
for its

character

it taking the sample, selecting

ness,
or

importance,
two

other drawn

point of interest.
at

Then

considerable agree

samples

random

are

extremely likely to

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

117

approximatelyin regard
of
a

to

the

proportion

of
a

occurrences

character

so

chosen.
has

The

inference that
the
same

previously

designated character
occurrence

nearly
a

frequency of
a

in the
at random

whole
out

of

class that it has in

is induction.
a

sample

drawn
acter

of that class

If the char in which

be

not

previouslydesignated,then
to

sample
to

it is found it may be

be

prevalent can
the whole if

only

serve

suggest that
may

prevalent in
as an a

class.
we

We
"

consider inference
to test

this surmise of the

inference
second

please
must

an

but possibility;

sample

be drawn

question of
of

whether

the character
a a

actuallyis prevalent. single character

may

Instead

designating beforehand
we

in

reference
nate

to which
use

will examine
same

sample, we

desig

two, and

the

sample

to determine

the relative
two

frequencies of both.
inferences
at

This

will be
we

making
are we

inductive
that

once;

and,

of course,

less certain should

both
either
acters

will

yield correct

conclusions do
so.

than

be that char

separatelywould
is true of any

What number.

is true

of two the

limited

Now,

number
for
us

of characters in reference

which
to

have

any

considerable
more sure

interest

any

class of As
we

objects is
shall these be

moderate
to

than any

might sample

be

supposed.

examine may

with
not

reference

to
as

characters,they
as

be

regarded
mined infer

exactly
amounts

predesignated, but
to

predeter
we

(which
that
we

the

same

thing);
class that

and

may
re so

the

sample represents the

in all these this is not

spects if
secure an

please,remembering only
as

inference
been

if the

quality to be looked particular

for had The

fixed upon

beforehand.

demonstration

of this

theory

of induction

rests

upon

u8

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

and principles those and who

follows

methods
matters

which the

are

accepted by all

display in

other

particular knowledge
to

force of mind

which

qualifythem

judge

of this.
never

The
to

however, quite unaccountably seems theory itself,

have
to

occurred

to any

of the

writers The
was

who
most

have

undertaken

explain synthetic reasoning.

the matter Mill

widely-spread promoted by depends

"

opinion in
Mr.

is
"

one

which

much

John Stuart

namely,

that of

induction Nature

for its
on

validityupon principlethat

the what

uniformity happens

that
a

is,
suf

the

once

will,under

ficient degree of similarity of circumstances,happen

as

again

often

as

the

same

circumstances that different

recur.

The

application
to

is this: The class

fact

things belong

the

same

constitutes is

the

similarityof circumstances, and

this
a

the

induction
What

good, provided
once a

similarityis
of

"

sufficient."

happens
to

is, that

number

these
may

things are expected,

recur

found

have

certain
as

character; what
often
as

be

then, to happen again

consists should This rious in have

the

circumstances
to

this,that all things belonging

the
same

the

same

class

character. induction
some

analysis of

has, I
of which

venture

to

think, va
useful hand
to

to imperfections,

it may I put

be my

call attention.
a

In
out

the
a

first

place, when
of

in

bag

and

draw

handful

beans, and, findingthreeabout is

quarters of them
all in the bag
same are

black, infer black, my

found

that

three-quartersof obviously of
the the

inference
any

kind

as

if I had

largerproportion,or
had assumed that

whole,
resented But

of the

sample black, and

it rep

in that respect the rest

of the contents
seems

of the
to

bag.
the

the

analysis in question hardly

adapted

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

119

of explanation

this proportionateinduction,where of

the

con

clusion,instead happens under

does
not

being

that

certain

event

uniformly
it

certain

circumstances, is precisely that

but

uniformly
cases. as a

occur,

only happens
that the whole the

in

certain
may be the

proportion of
be

It is true

sample
may

regarded

singleobject, and
formula

inference

brought
conclusion

under
to

the

proposed by considering sample

But will show
a

be that any

similar

similar
the

proportion among
induction
a as

its constituents.
on a

this is to treat

if it rested of its

singleinstance,which

gives

very

false idea

probability.
the

In the second

place,if

uniformity of Nature
should whose Mr. have
no

were

the draw knew

sole warrant
one

of

induction,we
to
a

right to
we

in

regard
about. white

character

constancy
says

nothing
none

Accordingly,
swans were

Mill
to

that, though
for thou white known

but

known

Europeans
all
swans was

sands
"

of years,
not
a was

yet the inference

that

were

was

good induction," because

a

it

not

that

color
so

usual

generic
But

character

(it,in fact,not
demon
a

being
strable gree

by
that

any
an

means).
inductive
you

it is

mathematically
have
as

inference

may

high
any

de

of

probabilityas

please independent of
of the character

ante

cedent

knowledge
it
was

of the constancy that

inferred.

Before
of

known
was

color is not

usually a character probability study

their of

genera, all

there

certainly a considerable
white. led to
to

that

swans

were

But

the

further of

the

genera

of

animals

the

induction A

non-uni

formity

in

regard

color.

deductive
gone

application of
far to of
swans

this general proposition would the

of probability the universal

have

overcome

whiteness

before

120

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

the black

specieswas
to

discovered.

When

we or

do

know

any of
to

thing in regard
a

the

general constancy

inconstancy

character, the applicationof that

general knowledge

the it

particularclass
to

to
or

which

any

induction the force

relates, though
of the
to

serves

increase

diminish

induction, particular

like is, cases,

every

applicationof general knowledge

in its nature and
not

deductive

inductive.
are

In the third similar is the

are

place,to happen

say

that inductions

true
"

because
or, what

events
same

in similar

circumstances in

thing,because
be similar

objects similar
in others
"

some

respects
those in

likely to

is to

overlook

conditions ductions. any

which When of

really are
we

essential to the
all the
one

validityof

take

characters another
we

into account,

pair

objects resemble
any other for
a

in

just as

many
to such

as particulars

pair.
us

If

limit ourselves

characters

as

have

any

importance, interest,or
may be

obviousness, then
but

synthetic conclusion
that
at

drawn,
we

only
have

on

condition been taken

to

the

specimens by
from

which

judge
to

random
a

the class in and

not

regard
as

which

we

are

form

judgment,
The

selected has

belonging to
force when
before

any the

sub-class. character the

induction has
are

only
been the in of of

its full

concerned These

designated
essentials of

examining

sample.
are

induction, and validity of explanation given in

they

not

recognized uniformity
the doctrine is not
a

attributingthe
Nature. The

induction of

to

the

induction

by

probabilities, metaphysical
of

the last of these papers, but is

one

mere

formula,

from

which

all the

rules

synthetic
mathe
a

reasoning can
matical cogency.

be

deduced But

systematicallyand
of the matter

with

the account

by

prin-

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

121

cipleof Nature, even

if it were

in other

respects satisfactory,

presents the fatal disadvantageof leaving us

afloat tion.
as

quite as much
of induc those who
con

before

in
not

regard

to

the proper

method

It does this

surprise me,
have

therefore,that

adopt
duct

theory

given

erroneous

rules for the

of

of

reasoning,nor by
Mr.

that the greater number Mill in his first

examples
models
of

put forward
what

as edition,

inductions

should
so

be, proved

in the

light of
that One
an

further had

scientific progress
to be

unfortunate particularly in later editions.

they

replacedby
that Mr.

others Mill

would induction

have
on

supposed
this

might

have

based

circumstance, especiallyas
the conclusion been
a

it is his avowed
turns out

principle false,it

that, if
cannot

of

an

induction

have
any

good

induction.
seem

Nevertheless,neither
been led to suspect, which he

he

nor

of his scholars

to have

in the

the perfectsolidity of least, for

the the

framework mind in
at

devised
from

securely supporting
to

its passage its first trial

the known
answer

the

unknown, although
well
as

it did not

quite so

had

been

expected.

IV

When for dren

we

have

drawn

any

statistical induction of all births

are

"

such,
chil

as instance,

that

one-half

of male

"

it is

always possible to discover,by investigation

class of which the
same

sufficiently prolonged, a
may
sort

predicate

be affirmed

to universally;

find out, for The

what instance, of this there

of births

are

of male

children. from the

truth

prin
is
a

ciple follows immediately

character

theorem of

that

peculiarto

every

possiblegroup

objects. The

122

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

form
event

in which
must

the
a

principleis usually stated is,that

cause.

every

have

But, though
that of there
to
a

there which
to

exists is

cause

for

every

event, and
if

kind

capable
us

of the in

being discovered, yet discovery; if

the world
we

be

nothing
among

guide

to

have
any

hunt

all the

events
sex

without

scent; if,for instance,the

of

child

might equally be
the

supposed
what then made. That that any
we was

to

depend
on

on

the the

of configuration
on

planets,on
else
"

going

at

antipodes,or
have
no

anything
of
ever

the

discovery would

chance

getting

ever

do

discover whatever
no

the is

precise causes

of

things,
excep

induction
we

absolutely without
assume.

is tion, it is that
an

what easy

have

rightto
the
an

On

the

contrary,

from corollary, has

theorem

just referred to,

But there
are

every of

empirical rule
our

exception.7
present
an

certain

inductions

which

approach
are

to

so universality

extraordinary that, even

are

if

we

to

sup

pose

that

they
think The and first
a

not

universal strictly have been laws reference

a

truths, we
reached

cannot

possibly
accident. of time

that
most

they

merely by
are

remarkable With

of this kind
to

those

space.

space, manner,

Bishop
that

Berkeley
it
was

showed, in
seen,

very
a

conclusive

not

thing
on

but

thing inferred. Berkeley

the is
a a

insists chiefly third

the

of directlyseeing impossibility since the retina retina of the eye

even

dimension

of space, in
a

surface.

But,
it is

point

of

fact,the
of

is not

surface;
7

conglomeration
a

nerve-needles

directed

[Note

that

this corollary is itself

theoretical

inference and

not

an

empirical rule.]

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

123

toward

the lightand

having only

their extreme

points senfrom
one

these points lying at considerable sitive, another

distances

compared

with

their of
no

areas.
one

Now,

of these

points,

certainlythe perception of

excitation
a

singly can

produce the
the aggregate certain rela

surface, and
can

consequently not
to

of all the sensations tions

amount

this.
of

But

subsist

between

the

excitations the

different
upon

nerve-

points,and hypothesis
ferred.

these of

constitute
is

premises
and from

which

the

space space

founded,

which

it is in is what of
as a now

That

is not and is
to
a

immediately perceived
mediate

universallyadmitted;
called But
as an

cognition is
the criticism

is

and inference,
are we

subject to

logic.
soon com

what

to

say

the fact of every whose

chicken
are

it is hatched

solvinga problem
to

data

of

plexitysufficient
It would the and time.
no

try the greatest mathematical

to

powers?

be insane

deny

that

the

tendency

to

lightupon

conception of
of every That

space

is inborn The
same

in the mind

of the chicken

animal. time time is not

thing

is

equally

true

of

directly perceived is evident,since

we

lapse of

is present, and
not

only perceive what

of

is

present.
never some

That,

having

the

idea
our

time,

we

should

be able to

perceive the
for
"

flow in

sensations

without
ad
"

particularaptitude
The
idea of

it,will probably also be

at

mitted. is another

force
so

least,in
arrived

its rudiments

conception
low
in the But

early

at, and

found
it must

in be

animals

so

scale of the

that intelligence, of
an

supposed
of

innate.

innateness

idea that

admits idea
to

degree, for

it consists

in the

tendency

of

present
do
so

itself to the mind.

Some

ideas,like
the

that very

of space, dawn of

present themselves

at irresistibly

124

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

and take possession of intelligence,

the mind
we are

on

small

prov

ocation,while indeed, but

extended.
not

of
so

other

conceptions
a

prepossessed,
is

strongly,down
to to

scale which

greatly
to

The

tendency
characters which

personifyevery
it,may
soon

thing,and

attribute human
but it is
man a

be said to be
overcome

innate;

tendency
to

is very

by civilized
him.
in

in

regard
a

the greater part of the

as

objectsabout

Take

such

conception
square say that

that

of

gravitationvarying
It is
a

versely as
law.
is
one

the
to

of the distance. it is is

very

simple
that it

But which

simple

is

merely

to say to

the mind

adapted particularly
the
more

apprehend

with

facility.Suppose
had

idea

of

quantity multiplied
the mind than that
"

into another of
a

been

no

easy power

to

quantity raised
we ever

to

the

indicated

by

itself

should
It is

have

discovered

the law

of the solar the mind

system?
of
man

seems

that therefore, incontestable,

to

strongly adapted
far
as

the

comprehension
that certain

of the

world;

at

so least,

this goes,
a

highly conceptions,
in his
never

important

for such without

comprehension, naturally arise

a

mind; and,
have had

such

tendency, the
at

mind

could

any
are we

development
to

all.

How

explain

this

adaptation?
the

The of

great

and utility space,

as

indispensablenessof force,even
to
are

conceptions

time,
such

and

the the

lowest results

are intelligence,

to

suggest that they

of natural

selection. mechani do
any

Without
cal

something

like

and kinetical, geometrical, could

conceptions,no

animal

seize his food

for the

or

thing which species.

which He

might be

necessary is true, be the

preservationof
with
an

the

might, it

provided
same

instinct is to say,

would

generallyhave

that effect;

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

125

he

might
and

have

conceptions

different coincided

from with

those
them

of
in

time, regard
as

space,
to

force,but which
cases

the

ordinary
animal

of the animal's have

an

experience. But, advantage

not

that

would
life whose

immense

in

the

strugglefor
down in
a

mechanical

conceptions did
as

break

novel

situation would
correct

(such
a

development
selection
matters.

must

bring
of

about),
more

there
more

be

constant

in

favor

and

ideas

of these of that

Thus law

would
upon upon
was a na

be

attained

the

knowledge

fundamental forces

which

all science

rolls;namely, that
space, and
mass.

depend
this idea

relations of
once

time,

When

sufficiently clear,it
of

would

require
to

no

more

than

comprehensible degree
ture

genius
an

discover

the exact

of these

relations.
must

Such
be

hypothesis naturally sug

that it does
not
seem

but it gests itself, sufficient to

which and these it is
to account

admitted

for

the

extraordinary accuracy
to

with

conceptionsapply
that there

the

phenomena
secret

of

Nature,
which

probable
be

is

some

here

remains

discovered.

Some
we are

important questions of logicdepend

to

upon

whether
ex

consider

the
or

material

universe

as

of limited and

tent

and the

finite age, former

quite boundless
it is conceivable the whole
to

in space that
a

in time.

In
or

case,

general plan
be
discov
some

design embracing
it would
a

universe be
on

should the alert

ered, and
traces

be

proper In

for the

of such

unity.

the
we

latter case,
can

since any

pro

portion of the world

is less than

of which

have

experience
follows that

the smallest

it assignablefraction,

126

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

we a

never

could

discover
any
to

any

pattern in the universe

the whole

except
be

repeating one;
our

design embracing

would

beyond

powers

and beyond discern, all time.

the united what

seen

powers

of all intellects

during

Now,
we

is

absolutely
a

incapable of being
paper, is
a

known An

is,as

have

in

former

not

real at all.

absolutelyincognizableexistence
universe it is
as

nonsensical

the phrase. If,therefore,

infinite,
a

the is

attempt

to

find in it any
a

design embracing
of

whole

and futile,

involves
never

false way had

any

looking at

the

subject.

If the world

universe
stretches

beginning, and
without

if in space is
no

beyond

world

limit,there

whole
acter

of material
to

and things,

consequently no
no

general char
any

the

universe,and
But

need
was

or a

of possibility time
are

governor

for it.

if there

before

which

absolutely no
bounds
mere

matter

existed, if there

certain

absolute
there is
a

to

the

region of things outside

we

of which
an

void, then
since
we

naturally seek
look
for

for

explanation of it,
material

and,
the and

cannot
a

it among

things,
creator

hypothesis of
governor actual

great disembodied

animal, enough.
to

the

of the
state

world,
of the

is natural
as

The

evidence As
to

the find the

limitation of
on our

the universe
a

is

as

follows:
of

time, we
since
to

earth
a

constant

progress

development
seems

planet was
resulted appears from

red-hot the

ball; the

solar system of
a

have

condensation still

nebula,

and

the
see

process
stars

to

be
with

going

on.

We

sometimes

(presumably
resolved evidence

systems

of

worlds) destroyed

and
we

apparently
have
no

back
of any

into the nebulous

condition, but

existence of the world

which it
seems

previous to
been

the nebulous

stage

from

to

have

evolved.

All this rather

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

I27

favors

the

idea

of
we

beginning
be

than

otherwise.
we see

As

for

limits in space,

cannot

sure

that

anything
of theo

outside of the system

of the

Milky Way.
no

Minds of

have predilections logical facts to reconcile them But the

therefore with

need

the distorting

their views. the unknown

only scientificpresumption is,that

and time
are

parts of space

like the known death

parts, occupied;
in all

that,as
which
we

we can

see

cyclesof
trace out

life and the

development good
in

to

end, the
as enormous our

same

holds distances

regard to
tween to

solar systems; different

that

lie be

the

planets of
as

solar

system, relatively
distances and lie

their

diameters, and
our so

still more

enormous

between

system
it may be

to relatively

its diameter

other

systems,
exist with
so

supposed
ours as

that other
to

clusters galactic
such

remote

from do

not

be these

recognized as
are

certainty. I
say

not

say

that
are

strong induc

tions; I only
in
our

that the

they

the

presumptions which,
be

ignorance of

should facts,

preferred to hy
occur

potheses which
rences we

involve

conceptions of things and

from any

different totally had

any

in their character
as

of which

have

such experience,

disembodied
the

spirits,
of
me

the

creation

of matter,

infringementsof

laws

chanics,etc.
The universe When

ought

to

be

presumed
that

too

vast

to have

any

character. Nature
are

it is claimed

the

arrangements
of any

of

benevolent,or
we

just,or
to

wise, or

other

peculiar kind, opinions,as

ought
the

be

prejudiced against such

an

being
such
"

offspringof
And

ill-founded

notion

of the finitude of the world.

examination

has hitherto of
a

shown

that

beneficences, justice, etc., are degree

and limited

most

limited kind

limited in

in range.

iz8

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

In

like manner,
in the

if any of

one

claims

to

have

discovered
a

plan
their

structure

organized beings,or

scheme

in

or a regular arrangement classification, a

among

natural

or objects, or an

system
of

of

in proportionality
or a

the human

form,

order

development,
the

correspondence between
events,
the
are or a

conjunctionsof
cance

planets and
or a

human

signifi
we

in
to

numbers,
ask

key
such

to

dreams,
relations

first

thing

have

is whether mechanical with

susceptibleof they
a

explanationon
be

and principles,
as

if not

should

looked

upon

disfavor and

having already
examination has

strong

presumption against them; exploded

There
all such
are

generally

theories.
to

minds

whom

every

prejudice,every
to say

pre these

sumption, seems
are.

unfair. those who

It is easy
never

what

minds what

They
a

are

have

known who
as

it is to that That

draw other

well-grounded induction,and
is
as

imagine
own.

people'sknowledge
rolls upon is
no

nebulous

their
a

all science
a

presumption (not
with

of

formal

but of
can

real

kind)

argument
there the is

them,

because

they

not

imagine
These upon there

that
are

anything
who and who which

solid in human
waste

knowl time and

edge.
money But

people

their such

perpetual motions
are

other take up

rubbish.

better

minds

mystical theories
no

(by

which

mean

all those

have
are

of possibility who
are

being mechanically explained). stronglyprejudiced in

natural
tendencies
to

These

persons We

favor

of such

theories.

all have

believe in such

things; our
the

education
to
as

often strengthens this tendency; and

many
a

result is,that

minds

nothing

seems

so

antecedently probable
find evidence

theory

of this kind.

Such

persons

enough

THE

ORDER

OF

NATURE

129

in favor

of their induction

views, and they

of
a

in the absence

of any from
to

recognized
their belief.

logic of
But

cannot

be

driven

to the mind

physicistthere ought

be

strong

presumption against every

it
to not
seems

mystical theory; and, therefore,

scientific
was men

to out
so

me

that

those

who
to

have

sought
have

make been

that

science

not

hostile

theology

as clear-sighted

their opponents. that science

to
me can

It would

be extravagant

to say
seem

at

present
of spirit
as us

but disprove religion; science of M. is hostile to Vacherot. is

a

it does

that such
a

the
one

any Our

religion except appointed

and

that that

teachers

inform

Buddhism
most

miserable needful
no use

atheistical

shorn faith,
a

of the its

gloriousand
be of

attributes of

that religion; for

priestscan
nor

to

by praying agriculture
the
sun

rain,
also

to

war

by commanding
remonstances

to

stand
us

still. We that
to

hear the

the

of those in the

who

warn

to shake

general belief

livingGod

would

be

shake

the

general morals, public and mitted;

such
a

private. This, too,

of

must
no a

be ad
more

revolution
waste

thought could
desolation
to
new

be

accomplished
tion of trees wholesome in

without could be

and

than

planta
however
a a

transferred

ground,

without itself, of them

all of them Nor is

for .languishing

time, and thing

in
a

many

dying.
a man

it, by-the-way,
have

to

be

presumed having
serious

that
a

would

taken

part

movement

possible atheistical adequate

counsel in

issue

without
to

having

taken

and

regard
a

that

responsibility.But,
be
as

let the
one

consequences

of such that

belief

dire

as

they

may,

thing is

certain:

the state

of the and
no

whatever facts, human

it may
can

be, will surely get found

out,
car

prudence

long

arrest

the triumphal

130

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

of truth every But

"

no, not of

if the
our

discovery were
to

such

as

to

drive

individual it would

race

suicide! that any

be

follyto
the mode

suppose of the

metaphysical perfectis
to

theory in regard to

being

of the

toward destroy that aspiration the

any
essence

perfectwhich that, if
in the

constitutes

of

religion. It
of

is true

priests of
it gen

form particular that

succeed religion

making

believed erally
ance

cannot religion

exist without

the accept in
so

of certain certain
see

formulas, or dogmas
no

if the

they

succeed

inter the

weaving people
which

with

that popular religion between

one a

can

essential

analogy

religion rejects
can

accepts these points of faith and

the result may very

which

them,
not

well be to render
can

thpse who
we ever

believe these

Nor thingsirreligious.

hope
more

that any teachers

body
of

of

priestsshould

consider of the

themselves

in generalthan religion

particular system
But
no man

of

theology advocated
be excluded from
to
so

by

their

own

party.
the
common

need
nor

from

in participation

feelings,
them
as

much

of the

public expressionof

is of

open those

all the

by laity,
the

the

narrowness unphilosophical

who

guard
from

mysteries of worship.
that
common

Am

I to

be

prevented
tion of

joiningin

joy

at
we

the revela celebrate

which of religion, principles enlightened and

at Easter

Christmas,because

I think which

that certain scien have been

to

and metaphysical ideas tific, logical, up with be the who these

to

mixed do
so

principlesare
those

untenable?
as

No;
more

would than

estimate
"

errors

of

consequence

truth

an

opinion

which
are

few

would

admit.

People

do not

believe what
rare

reallythe fundamental
and find, all but these

of Christianity are principles

to

few

ought

to feel at home

in the churches.

SIXTH

PAPER

DEDUCTION,

INDUCTION,

AND

HYPOTHESIS1

THE for of

chief all the

business

of

the

logician
on

is to

classify arguments;
The forms Barbara classes called is

testing clearly depends logicians

For
are

classification. certain

defined

by
the

typical
called

syllogisms.
as

example,

syllogism

follows: S
is

M;
S

M is P.

is P:

Hence, Or,
to

put
Enoch

words and Enoch

for

letters

"

Elijah
and

were

men;
must

all

men

die: died.

Hence,
The
or

Elijah

have
for

"is

P It

"

of is

the

logicians
of

stands

any

verb,

active how

neuter.

capable
trouble

strict

proof

(with which,
that but the all

ever,

will
can

not

the

reader) form;
"

arguments
under of the the

whatever condition

be
the
"

put

into

this
mean

only

that
"

is shall is

is for

purposes
an

argument
will appear

or

represented
form

by."
like

Thus,
this:

induction

in beans

this
are

something

These

two-thirds in this

white;
are

But, beans;
1

the

beans

bag

(represented

by)

these

Popular

Science

Monthly,

August,

1878.

132

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

.'.

The

beans

in the

bag

are

two-thirds be reduced

white. in
some

But, because
to

all inference
not to

may that

way appro

Barbara, it does
in which

follow

this is the most kind

priate form
On

represent every
the

of inference. of dif in

the contrary, to show

sorts

distinctive characters
must

ferent

of

inference, they

clearlybe exhibited
Barbara

different

forms

peculiar

to

each.
so

particularly
the is is taken

deductive typifies
no literally,

reasoning; and

long

as

inductive

reasoning can

be put into this form.

a

Barbara

is,in fact,nothing but the applicationof major premise lays down

men are

rule. for

The

so-called
All
case

this
or

rule; as,

example,
states
a

mortal.

The

other
Enoch

minor
a man.

premise
The

under

the

rule; as,

was

conclusion
Enoch

appliesthe

rule to the

case

and

states

the result :
is

is mortal.

All deduction

is of this
to

character; it

merely the applicationof general rules

Sometimes
this is not All But very

particularcases. following;

evident,as
are a

in the

quadrangles
no

figures, quadrangle;
not

is triangle

Therefore, some
But here
"

figuresare

triangles.

the

reasoning is reallythis:
is other than
a

Rule. Case.

Every quadrangle
Some
"

triangle.

"

figuresare figuresare

quadrangles.
not

Result.

Some
or

triangles.
more

Inductive
than case, the
can mere

syntheticreasoning,being something applicationof

be reduced of
at
to
a

general rule
this form.
we a

to

particular

never

If, from white, we

bag
one

beans

of which it is

know

that

are

take

random,

deductive

inference

DEDUCTION,
that We this bean is

INDUCTION,

HYPOTHESIS

133

probably white, the probabilitybeing f

the followingsyllogism: have, in effect, Ride.

"

The This

beans
bean

in this has

bag

are

white.
in such
a

Case.
in the would

"

been

drawn

way
so

that drawn

long run

the relative number

of white

beans

be equal to the relative number

"

in the

bag.
a

Result.
in the

This
run

bean

has

been
out

drawn

in such

way

that

long

it would of

turn
one

white
we

of the time.
a

If instead random and

drawing

bean

draw

handful
are

at

conclude

that about

of the handful
same

prob

ably white, the reasoningis

not

of the

sort.

If,however,
there
are

knowing bag,
beans
we

what

proportion
a

of white random

beans

in of

the the

draw
in the

handful

at

and, rinding f
that up
a

handful
are

white, conclude
are

about the

-fof

those

in the

bag

white, we
and
a are

rowing

current

of deductive

sequence,
of
a

concluding
case.

rule from is

the

observation

result in

certain

This
one

particu
The

larly clear when

induction These These
.'.All the then

all the handful is:

were are

turn

out

color.

beans

in this white

bag

beans beans

in the

bag

were

white.

Which

is but

an

inversion

of the deductive

syllogism.
Rule.
Case.
"

All the beans These

"

in the
were are

bag

were

white

"

"

beans

in the white

bag.

Result.
So and that

These

beans

jnduction is

the inference

of the rule from

the

case

result.

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

But

this is not
as

the

only
a

way

of

invertinga deductive Suppose

so syllogism

to

produce

syntheticinference.
a

I enter

room

and

there find
On
some

number
the

of

bags,containing
a

different kinds
of white

of beans. after

table there is

handful
of the
a

beans; and,
white
a

I find searching, I at
once

one
as

bags

contains
as

beans

only.
that

infer
was

prob
out
an

or ability,

fair guess, This

sort

this handful

taken

of that

bag.

of

inference of
a

is called
case

making
a

hypothesis*
result.
We

It is the inference

from

rule and

have,

then

"

DEDUCTION.

Rule. Case.

"

All the beans These

"

from
are are

this

bag

are

white.

"

beans

from

this

bag.

.'.Result.

These

beans

white.

INDUCTION.

Case.

"

These
"

beans beans

are are

from

this

bag.

Result. .'.Rule.
"

These

white. this

All the beans

from

bag

are

white.

HYPOTHESIS. Rule.
"

All the beans

"

from
are are

this white. from

bag

are

white.

Result.

These These

beans
beans

^y. Case.
We,

"

this
as

bag.
follows:

all accordingly, classify

inference

Inference.

Deductive

or

Analytic.
Induction.

Synthetic. Hypothesis.
Baldwin's Dic

[Later Pierce
Probable

called

it presumptive

inference. See

tionary art.

Inference.!

DEDUCTION,
Induction of which is true
to

INDUCTION,
we

HYPOTHESIS

135

is where

generalizefrom
infer
we cases

number the
a same

of

cases

something
a

is true, and

that find

thing thing

of

whole
a

class.

Or, where

certain

be true of

of

certain
same we

proportion of proportion
find
some

and

infer that it

is true

the

of

the

whole

class.

Hy

pothesis is where
which
a case

very the

curious

circumstance,
it
was

would of
a

be

explained by

supposition that

certain

general rule,and
we

thereupon adopt
in certain

that

supposition. Or, where

two

find

that

respects

objects have
one

and strong resemblance,

infer that they

resemble
I
as once was a man

another
at
a

strongly in
seaport in
to
a

other

respects.

landed

Turkish which I

province; and,
was

walking
upon canopy the

up

the

house

to

I visit,

met

horseback,
over

surrounded

by four horsemen
the governor of who
was

holding a

his head.

As
I could that

of

the

province was
be
was so an

only personage

think this

would This

greatly honored, hypothesis.

are

I inferred

he.

Fossils far in the

found;

say, remains the the

but like those of fishes,

To washed

interior
we

of

country.
sea once

explain
over

the

phe

nomenon, This

suppose

this land.

is another

hypothesis.
documents and
monuments

Numberless
queror
seen

refer
we we

to

con

called the man,

Napoleon Bonaparte.
yet
we

Though
what

have have

not

cannot

explain
and

seen, sup

namely, posing
As
a

all these

documents

monuments,

without

that he

reallyexisted.

Hypothesis again.
a

hypothesis is general rule,

inclines
that
we our

weak

kind

of

argument.
its
con

It often

judgment
say

so

slightlytoward
we

clusion

cannot

that

believe

the

latter

to

,36
be true; difference and the that
we

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

only surmise
except
one we

that it may

be

so.

But
an

there

is

no

of
are

degree

between

such that

inference
remember

by which
of

led to believe
our

we

occurrences

yesterdayfrom
ii

as feeling

if we

did

so.

Besides

the way

justpointed out
an

of
or

invertinga

deductive is

syllogism to produce
another. of the
a

induction of
a

hypothesis, there premise

the

If from

the

truth would

certain

truth from would

certain conclusion
of falsity

necessarilyfollow,then
the of falsity the

the conclusion take

men

premise

follow. Rule.

Thus,
"

the
are

followingsyllogism in
mortal.

Barbara:

All

Case.
.*.

"

Enoch
"

and and

Elijah were Elijah were

men.

Result.

Enoch

mortal.

Now,
and,

person

who

denies
must

this result may

admit Thus:
not

the

rule,

in that

case, he Result.
men
"

deny
and

the

case.

Denial
Rule.
/. Denial
"

of

Enoch mortal.

Elijah were

mortal.

All

are

of Case.
kind of who he of

"

Enoch

and

Elijah were

not

men.

This cal

syllogismis
second the

called

Baroco, which
the other the

is the

typi
the in

mood

the denies
must

figure. On
result may

hand,
and

person that
case

admit Thus: and

case,

deny

the rule. Enoch

Denial

of

the

Result.

"

Elijah

were

not

mortal.

Case.
.*.Denial

"

Enoch

and Rule.

Elijah were
"

men.

of

the

Some

men

are

not

mortal.

DEDUCTION,
This kind of

INDUCTION,

HYPOTHESIS

137

syllogism is called Bocardo, which figure.

deductive
are some

is the

typicalmood
Baroco
but of
a

of the third

and very

Bocardo

are, of course,

syllogisms; by logicians
to

peculiarkind.
because

They
need
a as

called

indirect appear But

moods,
as

they

transformation
to
a

the

applicationof
of

rule
we we

particularcase.
here done with
a

if,instead

settingout
in

have take moods

a

necessary tion of

deduction similar

Barbara,

probable deduc
which
we

form, the

indirect

shall

obtain

will be

"

Corresponding and, Corresponding

For

to to

Baroco, Bocardo,
with

an an

hypothesis;
induction.

example,

let

us

begin

this

probable deduction

in Barbara: Rule. Case.

"

Most

of the beans handful

in this
are

bag

are

white. this

"

This
"

of beans

from

bag.
are

.'. Result.

Probably, most

of this handful

of beans

white.

Now, deny
Denial white. Rule. .'.Denial from This is
an
"

the

but accept result,

"

the rule: of this

of Result.

Few

beans

handful

are

Most

beans
"

in this

bag

are

white. beans
were

of Case.
another

Probably, these

taken

bag.
the

hypotheticalinference. Next, deny

case:

result,

but accept the

Denial white.

of Result.

"

Few

beans

of this handful

are

Case.

"

These

beans

came

from

this

bag.

138
/.

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

Denial white.

oj Ride.

"

Probably, few

beans

in the

bag

are

This
The

is

an

induction. thus exhibited

not

relation

between its is not also

to

synthetic and
When

de
we

ductive

reasoning is
a

without

importance.
alone

adopt

certain the

hypothesis, it
facts, but
lead

because
the

it will

explain

observed

because

contrary
to

hypothesis would
observed.

probably
we

results contrary

those
not

So, when
it but

make the

an

induction,it
of rule than

is drawn

only
the

because

explains
also

distribution
a

characters would it is.

in

sample,
have the

because

different other

prob

ably
But

led to the

sample being
of this way An consider

advantage

of

consideringthe subject
is

might easily be
ference
is
an

overrated.
to

induction it
as

really the
of
a

in rule

of

rule,and

the

denial

artificial
or

conception, only

admissible

because,
considered

when
as

statistical the rules, is

proportional propositions are

of
a

denial

rule is itself of
a case

rule.
a

So, an

hypothesis
not

reallya subsumption
of
one

under
to

class and
a

the

denial under

it,except
class may is to be

for

this,that
a

deny

subsumption
another. timid and
as

admit

subsumption
as an

under

Bocardo
to

considered

induction,so

lose its
are

character amplificative of
a

entirely.Enoch
of
men.

Eli kind But

or

jah
of

specimens
are

certan

kind instances that

All that immortal.

men,

men

shown

by

these

to be

instead
men

of

boldly concluding

all very

pious

all
re

favorites of the

Almighty, etc., are

immortal,
men,

we

frain from the

specifying the descriptionof

that

and
men

rest
are

in im-

merely explicativeinference

so me

DEDUCTION, mortal.
So Baroco Enoch

INDUCTION,

HYPOTHESIS

139

might
and them
we

be

considered
are

as

very

timid
we

hypothesis.

Elijah
to be

not
or

mortal.

Now,

might boldly suppose

sort, but
that instead
are

gods

something
to the

of that

of that
some

limit ourselves

inference of
man.

they

of

nature

different from
immense
to

that

But,

after

there all, Baroco

is

an

difference between
Barbara and that and of
a

the of Bo
con

relation of
Induction

and

Bocardo

and based

Hypothesis
upon

to Deduction.

Baroco truth
a

cardo

are

the

fact

that

if the of

clusion necessarily follows from

the

the truth
from

premise, then falsityof

when the the

falsityof the premise

This
is the
a

follows
true.

the

conclusion. inference because

truth of

is

always

It is different
no means

only probable.
truth of
a

It

by

follows render

that,
the the At

certain

premise

would the

conclusion renders the

probable, therefore
of falsity
as we

of falsity

conclusion

the

premise probable.
in
a

this is only true, least,

when

have
in

seen one

former
in the

paper,
ante

the word and

probable

is used

sense

cedent

in another

in the

consequent.

in

A paper. His

certain It is

anonymous

writing
that he

is upon is
a

torn

piece

of

suspected
which
a

the author has had the

certain is

person.

desk, to

only

access,
torn

searched, and
of which
ex

in it is found in actly fits, tion.

man

piece of

paper,

edge

all its
a

that irregularities,

of the paper that the

in ques

It is
was

fair

hypothetic
author.
torn

inference The

suspected

actuallythe
that
two

ground of
of paper

this inference
are

evidently is

pieces

extremely

I4o

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

unlikely to
number

fit

togetherby

accident.

Therefore, of
a

great

of inferences

of this sort, but The

some

very of

small

propor

tion would induction them.

ters.
are

be
is
so

deceptive.
strong that
has

analogy

hypothesis with
confounded
of charac

have logicians
an

Hypothesis
A number in
a

been

called

induction
a

of characters certain

belongingto

certain

class

found

object; whence belong

same

it is inferred

that all

the characters This

of that class

to the

object in question. induction;

are

certainly involves
a

the In

principle as

yet in
not next
an

modified

form.

the first place, characters like

susceptibleof simple place, characters hypothesis like

a run

enumeration in

objects; in
we we or

the

categories. When
the

make

that of

about

piece

of paper,
two

only three,

examine and
were we

singleline
no

or characters, perhaps

take

specimen
an

at

all of others. that

we

If the should

hypothesis
be

nothing

but

induction,all
the

justi
the

fied in
two
as

concluding,in
paper examined

example above, would

matched be in such
to

be

that

pieces of
have been

which would

irregularities
in

found

match from

other, shape

say

The irregularities. slighter,

to

inference

the

of the paper

its

what ownership is precisely

distinguishes
and
more

hypothesis from

and induction,

makes

it

bolder

perilous step.
The
same

warnings that have been given againstimagin

rests

ing that induction might be repeated

such
a

upon
to

the

uniformity

of
as

Nature

in

regard

hypothesis. Here,
to account to

there,
for the

theory
the

not

only utterly fails

it also

validityof
of
no

inference,but
which
are

gives rise

methods
are,

conducting it

absolutely vicious.
in

There

doubt, certain uniformities

Nature, the knowledge of

DEDUCTION,
which
we

INDUCTION,

HYPOTHESIS

141

will

an fortify

hypothesis very

much. other

For metals

example,
exist in lines
would

suppose

that

iron,titanium, and
we

the sun, coincident

because in and

find in the solar

spectrum many
these metals

positionwith
this

those which
is

produce;
our

hypothesis

greatly strengthened by
distinctiveness of the par
But such
a

knowledge

of the remarkable observed.

ticular line of characters of

fortification

hypothesis is probable
is
no

of

deductive
such
nor

kind, and

hypothesis may
is

stillbe There tical

when

reinforcement
more

wanting.
in prac
one

greater
to

frequent mistake things which

are

logic than

suppose
some

that

resemble
the
more

another

strongly in

respects
That

any

likely

for that to be alike in others.

this is

false, absolutely
as

admits

of

rigid demonstration; but,

somewhat
severe use

inasmuch

the

reasoning is
like all such

and

complicated (requiring, A, B, C, etc., to

find it
set

reasoning,the
reader

of

it

forth),the
I omit sition: with
ena

would

probably

and distasteful,

it. The

An

example, however,

may

illustrate the propo

occupy themselves

comparative mythologists

findingpoints of resemblance
and the
careers

between
of all sorts

solar

phenom

of the heroes

of traditional

stories;and
fer that

upon

the basis of such

are

resemblances
of the

they
sun.

in If

these

heroes
more me.

impersonations
in their

there

be
made

anything
clear to

reasonings,it

has show

never

been

An
a

to ingeniouslogician,

how

futile all that

to

is,wrote
same

littlebook, in which
manner, the that
sun.

he

pretended Bonaparte

prove,

in the

Napoleon
It
was

is

only

an see

impersonation of
how many

reallywonder
he
one

ful to

points of resemblance
any
two

made

out.

The

truth

is, that

things resemble

another

H2

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

justas stronglyas
are

any

two

if others,

recondite

resemblances
of

admitted.

But, in order
lead
to
a

that the process

making

an

hypothesis should
rules must
be

the following probable result,

followed:
be

fPThe
before
In

hypothesis should
the
we

distinctly put
which
see are

as

question,
its truth.

making

observations
must

to

test

other

words,

try to

what

the

result of pre

dictions from
2.

the

hypothesis will

be. the
must

The
must

respect in regard to which

be taken of
at

resemblances
not

are

noted

random. which

We

take

par

ticular kind
to be 3.
must

for predictions

the

hypothesisis known

good.
The be failures
as

well

as

the The

successes

of the

predictions
must

honestly
unbiased. persons

noted.

whole

proceeding

be

fair and Some

fancy

that bias and of truth

"

counter-bias hot and

are

favor

able to the extraction

bate is the way
to

that

partisan de theory
its heel that of
our

investigate. This
But

is the

atrocious this

legal procedure.
It

Logic puts

upon

suggestion.
can

irrefragablydemonstrates by
the real

knowl

edge

only be furthered
of
a

desire for it,and

every mode

that the methods of

no

and obstinacy,of authority,

trying to
value.

reach

foregone conclusion,are proved.

as

absolutely of
is at lib
set

These
so or

things are
not
as

The

reader is not it.

erty to think
or can as

long

the

proof

forth,
so, he

long

as

he

refrains from

examining
of

Just
in

preserve, the
a

if he likes, his freedom

opinion
that
to

regard
if he

to

propositionsof geometry; fancy

to

only, in
will do

case,

takes
ever

read

Euclid, he

well

skip what

he

finds with A, B, C, etc., for,if he reads

attentively

DEDUCTION,
that

INDUCTION,
the freedom

HYPOTHESIS

143

disagreeable matter,

of his

opinion about

geometry may
How
to

unhappily be lost forever. people

there
are

many
own

who

are
"

incapableof putting
Do I want
to know

their the

consciences

this not?

question,
"

how

fact rules and

stands, or
which have

The
duction There

thus such

far
as

been
are

laid down

for in

hypothesisare
many other

absolutelyessential.

are

maxims

expressing particular con

are

trivances

for

making synthetic inferences strong, which

and

extremely valuable
are, in may for

should
four

not

be

neglected. Such Nevertheless,

and

example, Mr.
total

MilPs
of

methods.

the and

neglect

these, inductions
attain the

hypotheses

sometimes

do

greatest force.

-^

IV

Classifications
exist. Even in

in all

cases

perfectly satisfactory hardly

great distinction
between
ex

regard

to

the

and ampliative examples inferences, plicative which and The and

to
same seem

could

be found

to

lie upon in
some

the border

between

the two

classes,
of either.

partake

respects of the characters

of the distinction

thing is

true

between
and

induction

hypothesis.

In

the

main,
that

it is broad

decided.

By facts,
con

we induction, are

conclude
cases

similar facts,

to observed

true

in

not

examined.
a

By

hypothesis, we
from

clude

the

existence

of

fact

quite different
to known

anything

observed, from
observed
would

which, according

laws, something former, is

the
reason

necessarilyresult.
the

The

ing

from

particularsto
cause.

general law;
the classifies,

from latter,

effect to

The

former

latter

explains.

144

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

It is
a

only

in

some

specialcases
to

that there

can a

be

more

than

momentary

doubt

which

category
we

given

inference

belongs. One
ilar under

exception is where

observe, not
facts

facts sim

similar circumstances, but

"

different under
hav of the

different circumstances

the difference of the former

to

ing, however,
latter.

definite relation
are

the

difference

Such

which inferences, nevertheless

some

reallyinductions,some
indubitable resemblances

times
to

present

hypotheses. Knowing
that water

expands by heat,we
of
a

make
mass a

number
of water of these

of observations
at

of the volume

constant

different temperatures.
a

The

scrutiny of
which

few will the the

suggests

form

of

algebraicalformula

approxi
tempera
relative
ex

mately
ture.

express

the relation

of the volume
v

to

It may
and
t

be, for instance,that

the
a

being

volume,
amined

temperature,
relation of the

few
"

observations

indicate

form bt-

at

+
at

cf. taken induc of

Upon
at

examining observations
this idea that is

other and

temperatures
we

random,

confirmed;

draw the

the

tive

conclusion

all observations
we

within
our

limits

temperature
could such
to
a

from
so

which

have

drawn
once

observations
that

equally be
formula

satisfied. Having
it possible, is
a mere

ascertained

is

affair of arithmetic
will make is what upon the formula

find the values

of a,

b, and
best.

c, which

satisfythe observations
an

This
it rests

physicistscall
mere

empiricalformula, because
is not

induction,

and

explained by

any very

hypothesis.
useful
as means

Such

formulae, though

of

describing

DEDUCTION,
in
any

INDUCTION,
the

HYPOTHESIS

145

general high

terms

results of observations,do scientific discoveries.

that The

not

take

rank

among

induction whatever

which other

they embody, phenomenon

expansion by

heat

(or
a

is referred sudden

to) takes place in

perfectly
fluc

gradual manner,

without

leaps or inummerable
no

tuations,although really important, attracts

because of such
it is what
we

attention,
the defects

naturallyanticipate. But
very
are

expressionsare
the observations the formula

serious.

In

the first place, as

as

long as
tions

subject to
be

error,

all observa

are,

cannot

expected

to

satisfy the
be be due

observations

exactly.
errors
error

But

the discrepancies cannot

but observations, which has
we

solelyto owing
from
to to

the the

of the

must

partly

of the formula

been
have

deducted
no

erroneous

observations. that the real

Moreover,

right
free
at

suppose error,

facts,if they could be

such
a a

had

from

could

be

expressed by

formula similar
use

all.

They
with that

might, perhaps, be expressed by

an

formula
would of

infinite number

of terms;

but

of what

be to us, since
to

it would down?

require an
When

infinite number
one are

coefficients
with it is way
one

be written

quantity varies exactlyknown,

some

another,if the corresponding values

a mere

matter

of mathematical in
a a

ingenuity to find
a

of

expressing their relation

of
one

simple

manner.

If
"

quantity is
other of

kind
kind
"

"

say, say,

specific gravity
temperature
"

and
we

the
not

another
an

do is free with

desire to find
from

expression for their relation

constants, since if it
as

which
were

wholly free
from
them

numerical say,

when,

specific gravity
as

compared

water, and mometer,

temperature
were

expressed by the Centigrade ther

would have
to

in

question,numbers

be in-

I46
troduced We the
no

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

when

the

scales

of

measurement

were

changed. expressing
contain scales of

may,

however, and
of

do desire to find formulas which

relations
more

physical phenomena
than

shall

arbitrary numbers might require.

a an or

changes

in the

measurement

When

formula

of this kind

is

discovered,it is
a

no

longer
and is is

called
sooner

empirical formula, but

later made it. These the basis

law
an

of

Nature;

of

hypothesis
are

which

to

explain

simple
are

formulae
none

not

usually, if
for

ever,

exactly true, but they

the less

important

that; and
it

the great triumph of the hypothesis comes

when

explains not
the

only

the In

formula,
current

but

also

the

deviations

from

formula.

the this

language

of the
a

physi theory,

cists,an
while have in the think

hypothesis of

importance
restricted favor. the
our a

is called

the term

hypothesis is
in their

to

suggestionswhich
is
some

little evidence

There word
own

justice
To pre Lord the

contempt
that
we can

which

clings to
out

hypothesis.
minds
a

strike
Nature
"

of

true

conception of
Bacon

how

acts, in

vain Nature that

fancy.

As

well says:
sense

The

subtletyof
intellect:
so

far exceeds

subtlety of tions,and
of

and

these
men

fine medita
are a

and speculations, there is

are no

reasonings of
one

sort

insanity,only

at

hand

to

remark
are

it."

The

successful theories
reasons.

not

pure

guesses,

but

guided

by

The This

kinetical

theory of gases
to

is

good example

of this.

theory

is intended

explain certain
the law in
a

simple formulae,
It

the chief of which air and

or

is called gas be be

of

Boyle.

is,that if
a

any

other

placed

cylinder with
the

piston,
of the

if its volume

measured

under

pressure

DEDUCTION,

INDUCTION,
fifteen

HYPOTHESIS

147

atmosphere,
then the and

say

pounds
per

on

the

square

inch, and
be

if
on

another

fifteen gas

pounds

square

inch

placed
its

piston,the
in

will be

compressed
ratio
for

to one-half

bulk,
The

similar

inverse has been of each with

other
to

pressures.

hypothesis which
is that the

adopted
gas
are

account

for this law

molecules
from

at small, solid particles

great distances

other

to (relatively

their dimen

sions), and
attractions
one

moving
or

great velocity,without
to

sensible

repulsions,until they happen closely.

pressure Admit what

approach
that

another
a

very

this,and

it follows

when

gas is under
not

prevents it from
the

collaps

ing

is

the
are

incompressibilityof
under
no

separate mole
do
not

cules,which touch, but

The
more

pressure

at

since they all,

the the

pounding

of the molecules the

more

against the piston.

the gas will within is
com

and piston falls,

nearer

pressed,

the

together the
will be
at

molecules
moment

be;
a

the

greater number
distance
one

there

any

given
any of
a

of

the piston,the
its
course

shorter is

the

distance the

which influence

will go before

changed by
new courses

another, the greater given time,

of the law and the

number oftener

of

of
a

each

in

each,

within

given

distance The
to

piston,will strike
exact; but
in the

it. This

explainsBoyle's law.
not

is not

the first

hypothesis does place, if

oftener will
more

lead
are mean

us

it

exactly. For, they

tances

the

molecules their

large,
dis the On
one one

will strike each

are

other and

when

diminished,
will

consequently
pressure
an

strike it. for

and piston oftener, the other

produce

upon

hand,

if the molecules remain for

a

have

attraction time

another, they
another's

will

sensible

within

and influence,

consequently they

will not

strike

i48
the wall
so

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

often

as

they otherwise

would, and

the pressure

will be less increased When

Daniel the kinetical

by compression.
theory
of gases it rested pure
was

first proposed
on

by
of
ac

Bernoulli, in 1738,
and
was

only

the
It

law
was

Boyle,

therefore

hypothesis.

cordinglyquite naturally and

at

deservedly neglected. But,

aspect; for,
facts
re

present, the theory presents quite another

to

not

speak of the

considerable which the

number
it has been

of observed

of different kinds

with

brought

into

lation,it
That

is

supported by

mechanical
which
attract

theory of heat.
one

bringing togetherbodies
which
nor

another, or
sensible

separating bodies
motion is not

repel one

another, when

produced
of

destroyed,is always accompanied

than
an

by

the

evolution
it has
to

heat, is little more

induction.
a

Now,

been

shown without This

by experiment that,when doing work,

proves that
a

gas

is

allowed
of heat gas

expand

very

small

amount

disappears.
one

the

of particles very

the

attract

another
a

and slightly, is under any

but

slightly. It
prevents
the
two

follows it from

that, when

gas
not

pressure,

what

collapsingis
there is
to

repulsion between
there
are

parti
modes and is not

cles,since
of force

none.

Now,

only

known

us, force of of motion.

positionor

attractions

and repulsions, the force be

force

it Since,therefore, gas its

of positionwhich
the force

gives a
In
as

expansive force,
of

it must

of motion. appears

this
a

point

view, the
from the

kinetical theory of gases

mechanical that

deduction

theory

of heat.
same

It is to be

observed, however, (that there

in hold
are

it supposes those such

two
as

the modes
we

law of
see

of mechanics which

only

force)
and

holds
to

regard
also

to

bodies

can

examine,

for

DEDUCTION,

INDUCTION,

HYPOTHESIS

149

what

are

very has

different,
but
a

the

molecules

of from

bodies. induction.

Such Our

supposition
belief
law of

slender

support

in it is

greatly strengthened
and it

by

its connection
to

with
as

the
an

Boyle,

is, therefore,
Yet would with between the the it must

be be

considered admitted

hypothetical
kinetical
had
not

inference.
of gases

that

the
if it

theory
been

deserve

little credence of

connected

principles
induction of

mechanics.

The that
we

great
the

difference
infers in

and

hypothesis
such

is,
as

former

existence which
are

phenomena

have

observed

cases

similar, while
kind from

hypothe
what
we

sis

supposes

something observed,

of

different

have
it would

directly
be

and for
us

frequently
to

something directly.

which Accord

impossible
we

observe

ingly, when
of
our

stretch the

an

induction

quite beyond partakes

to

the

limits of
no

observation,
It
warrant

inference

of that

the
we

nature

hypothesis.
inductive

would for of

be
a

absurd

say

have
a

generalization
and there
our

extending
is
no

little
to

beyond
drawn

the

limits

experience,
we

line

be

beyond

which the very

cannot

push
it is
cannot

inference; Yet,
it much if
an

only
in

it becomes duction unless

weaker

further

pushed. give

be
we

pushed
find
can

far, we
an

credence
some

that and do

such

extension

explains then,
we

fact
a

which
of

we

observe.
and
are

Here, hypothesis

have

kind
an

mixture
and

of of

induction
this

supporting
theories
of

one

other;

kind

most

of

the

physics.

150

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

That and

inferences synthetic the

manner

may

be divided

into induction of
are no

hypothesisin
The

here value

proposed,3admits
of the distinction

question.
be tested

and utility

to

by

their

applications.
much

Induction than

a is,plainly,

stronger kind
for

of inference

hypothesis;and
them.

this is the first reason

distinguish regarded as
are

ing between

Hypotheses

are

sometimes

provisional resorts, which

be

in the 'progress But this is

a

of science false view

to

replacedby

inductions.

of the fact

subject. Hypothetic reasoninginfers

not

very
an

a frequently

capable of

direct observation.
once an

It is How

hypothesisthat hypothesis

Napoleon Bonaparte
ever

existed. induction? facts

as

is that It may

to

be

replacedby premise
that

be said that

from
as

the

such

we

have
are

observed
to

are

they

would that

be if

we Napoleon existed, are

infer

by

induction

all facts that character. may be

hereafter is
no

to

be

observed
that every

will be of the

same

There distorted But the

doubt

hypothetic inference
of
an

into the appearance

essence

induction

in this way. from

one

of

an

induc
set

tion is that similar kind

to

it infers

set

of facts another from

of

whereas facts,

hypothesis infers Now,

the

facts of
serve

one as

facts of another. for

our

facts which

grounds
are

belief in the
means

historic

realityof Napoleon
kind be by of facts

not

by
are

any

the only necessarily his existence.

in
a course

which
3

explainedby
was

It may
of and and lectures
was

that,at
the author in the
9,

This the

division Lowell

first made

before

Institute,Boston, in Academy

1866,

printed

Proceedings of the American

1867.

of Arts

Sciences, lor April

DEDUCTION,
the way
a

INDUCTION,
events
were some

HYPOTHESIS

151

time
not

of his career,
now

being

recorded

in

some on

dreamed

of, that

ingenious creature
the

neighboring planet was pictures on

into
star
our a

photographing

earth,and
may
some a

that time dis

these
come

large scale sufficiently

that
some

or possession,

mirror

upon

tant

will,when
to

the

light reaches
mind which that

it,reflect the whole

story back

earth.

Never

how

improbable
is

these

suppositions are; improbable.

to occur,
now seems

everything
not
some

happens
these

infinitely likely
which

am

saying
effect of certain

things are
existence
to

but

that

Napoleon's
nevertheless that such

impossible is
The

be

brought they refute,

about. do
occur,

hypothesis asserts
of
a

facts,when
not to

will be

nature

to

confirm, and

the existence

of the

man.

We

of have, in the impossibility

a

inductively inferring hypothetical conclusions,

reason

second

for third
an

between distinguishing merit of the

the two

kinds

of inference.

A with

distinction

is, that it is associated

rather

important psychological or
in

physiological
Induction That

difference
infers
a a

the mode

of the

apprehending facts.
a

rule. is
a

Now,

belief of

rule

is

habit.
every
a

habit

rule active
of been
a

in us, is evident.

That
as

belief

is of the

nature

habit, in
shown in

so

far

it is of papers

general
of this

character, has
series. expresses

the

earlier

Induction, therefore,is the logicalformula

the

which
a

physiological process
a

of formation

of

habit.

for Hypothesis substitutes,

cates

complicated tangle of predi

attached
a

to

one

a single conception. Now, subject,

there is that

peculiarsensation
of these

belonging to the
in

act

of

thinking
In

each

predicates inheres
this

the

subject.

hypotheticinference

complicated feeling so

produced

IS2

CHANCE

AND

LOGIC

is

replaced by

that single feeling of greater intensity, of

belongingto
Now,
way, when there

the act
our nervous a

thinking the hypothetic conclusion.

system
is excited the in
a

complicated
of the

being

relation is
a

between

elements

the excitation,

result

single harmonious Thus,

the various strike

disturbance
sounds upon the made
ear,

which

I call

an

emotion.
of
a an

by
and from the

the the

instruments result is sounds

orchestra

peculiar musical
This

emotion, quite
emotion is

distinct

the
same

themselves.
an

essentially hypo

thing as

and hypothetic inference,

every
an

thetic inference We
ous

involves

the formation

of such

emotion.
sensu

may

say,

that hypothesis produces the therefore, of

element for

thought, and

induction

the habitual
to

element.

As

deduction, which
of the and
as

adds facts

nothing

the

premises, but
the

only

out
one

various

represented in
down for
to

premises
may

selects be

brings the
the

attention

it,this

considered
is the

logicalformula
of

paying attention, corresponds

which
to

volitional element

thought, and
of

nervous

discharge in
merit of the

the

sphere

physiology.
induction and

Another

distinction
to
a

between
natural

hypothesisis,that
of the

it leads of the

very

classification
them.
more

sciences
must

and

minds

which

prosecute
men

What
than We have

separate different kinds

else
are men

of scientific of their

anything
cannot

the

differences work
men

techniques.

expect
in
common

who
with

with

books
lives
are

chieflyto
passed
the in

much

whose

laboratories.
most

But,
are

after

differences of this

kind,
of

next

important
the

differences in the modes

reasoning.

Of

natural

sciences,we
are

the classificatory have, first,

"

sciences,which

purely inductive

systematic botany

DEDUCTION,

INDUCTION,

HYPOTHESIS 153

and

zoology,
sciences

mineralogy,
of

and

chemistry.
above

Then,

we

have

the

theory,
Then,
etc.

as

explained
sciences
of

"

astronomy,

pure

physics,

etc.

we

have

hypothesis

"

geology,
There

biology,
are

many I

other

advantages
leave
the

of

the

distinction

in

question perience.
whether

which

shall

reader

to

find

out

by

ex

If

he

will

only

take

the

custom

of

considering
other of
the

given
of

inference

belongs
inference

to

one

or

two

forms

synthetic
that he

given
his

on

page

134, in

can

promise
various

him

will

find

advantage

it,

in

ways.

PART LOVE AND

II CHANCE

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

I.

THE

ARCHITECTURE hundred
at

OF of
of

THEORIES1
that have

OF been

the

fiftyor

systems
times
have

philosophy
the

advanced
the

different

world's
so

history,
results accibeen

perhaps
,

larger number evolution,as

to

been, not

much have

of historical

happy

thoughts which
An been idea

dently
found
and The

occurred

their authors. fruitful has

which

has

and interesting

adopted, developed,
sorts

forced

to

yield explanations of all

have been

of
to

phenomena.
this way of

English

particularlygiven

philosophizing; witness, Hobbes, Hartley, Berkeley, James

Mill. shows Nor
us

has what

it been the
true

by
nature

any and

means

useless
of the

labor;
ideas de

it

value

veloped
for

are,

and

in that

way if
a a

affords man,

serviceable

materials
with the

philosophy.
that go

Just
paper

as

being

seized
to

conviction

was

good material
a

make

things
with

of, were
roof of of

to

to work

to build

papier mdch6
of

house,

roofing-paper, foundations chimneys, bath

paper,
to

pasteboard,

windows of

paraffined paper,
forms of

tubs, locks, etc., all

would

different

his

experiment

probably certainly

afford valuable
make
are a

lessons

while builders,
so

it would

detestable

house,

those

one-idea'd

philosophies
are

and exceedingly interesting

and yet instructive,

quite

unsound. The
nature

remaining systems
of

of

philosophy amounting

have
to

been

of

the

reforms,

sometimes

radical

revolu found

tions,suggested by certain difficultieswhich

1

have

been

The

Monist,

January, 1891.
JS7

I58
to

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

beset systems
be in

previously in large part

the

vogue; motive

and of

such
any

ought
new

cer

tainly to
This have

theory.
that the

is like been

rebuilding a partially
committed are,

house. the

The

faults of

first,that
been

repairs

have dilapidations

generallynot
not

sufficiently thorough pains

had with been the taken

going, and
to

second, that
the additions

sufficient

bring

into

deep harmony

really

sound When

parts of the old structure.

a man

is about
to

to

build he

a can

house, what

power

of

thinking he
With
are

has

do, before
has
to

safely break

ground!
that
most

what
to

pains he

excogitatethe precisewants
a

be

supplied! What
and suitable
to which
a

study

to

ascertain

the the

available

materials, to
those such

determine
are

mode

of construction and
to
answer

materials

best Now

adapted,
without

hundred
too

questions!
think the
we

riding the metaphor

that the studies should
are

far, I

may

safely say
of
a

preliminary to
be
at

construction and

great
as

theory
those house. That has

least

as

deliberate the

thorough
a

that

preliminary

to

building of

dwelling-

systems

ought
since

to

be

constructed but I do

architectonically
not

been

preached

Kant, by
any

think

the

full

import of the maxim

What
to form

has

means

been person

apprehended.
who wishes

I would
an

recommend

is that

every

opinion concerning fundamental

a

problems, should
human in each

first of all make should take

note

complete

survey

of ideas

knowledge,
branch has of been

of all the valuable observe in

science, should
successful of the and

just what

respect each
that

where

it has

failed,in order
so

in the

light

thorough acquaintance

attained

of the

available

THE

ARCHITECTURE

OF

THEORIES

159

materials

for

theory philosophical
may

and

of the

nature

and the way

strengthof each, he problem

of
to

proceed
consists
not

to the

study
of the
as

of what proper

of

philosophy
I
must

in, and

solving it.
state

be

understood

endeavoring
should
em

fullyall
on

that

these

preparatory
slur

studies
over

brace;

the contrary, I
to to
a

purposely
to
one

many

points,

in order

give emphasis
make
a

specialrecommendation,
of the

namely,
of which ascertain such The
a

systematic study
may

conceptions out
order
to

philosophicaltheory place
each

be
may

in built,

what

conception
uses

fitly occupy

in

theory,and adequate
but
at

to what

it is

adapted.
fill a

treatment

of this
to

singlepoint would

volume,

I shall endeavor several for sciences

illustrate my

meaning by

glancing
them

and

conceptions in indicating
As
to the results to which

serviceable
studies thus

philosophy.
have

long
a

commenced

led me,

I shall

just give

hint at their nature. We may the I

us

begin

with

dynamics,

"

field in

our

day
has

of

perhaps made,
But
"

grandest conquest
the law
of the

human

science

ever

mean

conservation

of

energy.

let

revert

to the first
a

step taken
"

by

modern

scientific

thought,
"

and

great stride it was,

A modern

the

inauguration of examining experiment

of
and

dynamics by Galileo.
Galileo's works
had
to

physicist on
how of is to the
common

is

surprised to find
establishment

little

do

with

the

foundations
sense

mechanics.
il lume will be
see a

His

principalappeal
He be
a

naturale.

always

assumes

that
one.

the

true

theory
we can

found

to

simple and
be
so

natural in

And
For

why body

it should left to its

indeed
own

dynamics.
in
a

instance,

moves inertia,

and straightline,

160

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

straightline
curve

appears is

to

us

the than

simplest of
another.
A

curves.

In of
to to

no itself,

simpler

system

straightlines
those those the of
a

has

intersections of like of
an

preciselycorresponding

system
one

parabolas similarlyplaced,or
of
curves. as

of any

of systems infinity
to
us

But Euclid

straightline

appears between

simple, because,

says, it lies viewed

cause

evenly

its
as a

that is,because extremities;

endwise

it appears in

point.

That

is,again, be light moves

in

lightmoves

straightlines.
of the

Now,

straightlines because plays

in the laws of

part which
Thus

the

straightline
our

dynamics.
under
of

it is that of

minds

having been
"

formed the those laws

the

influence

phenomena conceptions
our

governed by entering into

so

mechanics,

certain in
are.

laws

become
at

implanted
the
to

minds,
Without for

that
a

we

readily guess

what

laws search
our

such
a

natural

prompting, having
suit the
as one

blindfold chance

law

which

would

phenomena,

of find

ing

it would

be

to

infinity. The
which the less
"

further have
we

physical

studies

depart
the laws
a

from

phenomena
of the govern

directly in
can

fluenced find the

growth
which

mind,
them

expect

to

simple," that is, com

to
our

posed
The

of

few

conceptions natural
of

minds.

researches
to

Galileo,followed

up

by Huygens
Force and The

and

others,led
which have

those

modern

conceptions of

Law,
great

revolutionized

the intellectual world. in the seventeenth

to

attention
soon so

given

to

mechanics
these

century
to

emphasized

conceptions as
doctrine
to

give rise

the

Mechanical of the cal

Philosophy, or
are

that all the

phenomena
mechani
a new

physical universe

be

explained upon

principles. Newton's

great discovery imparted

THE

ARCHITECTURE

OF

THEORIES

161

impetus
in
an

to this

tendency.

The

old notion
now

that heat

consists the
ex

agitationof corpuscles was

the chief direction the

applied
The

to

planationof
tion in this

propertiesof
was

gases.

first sugges of gases is

that the

the

pressure

explained by
of the

batteringof

particles against the

walls of the Avogases,

to

which containingvessel, air.

explained Boyle's law

of gases,

of compressibility

Later, the expansion

the diffusion and

gadro's chemical
and the action of

law,

viscosityof
were

Crookes's
same

radiometer kinetical of the

shown but other

at

be

consequences
nomena,

of the
as

theory;

phe

such
to

the
at

ratio
constant

heat specific

constant

volume

that which

pressure, little
reason

require
to

additional
are

hypotheses, simple,
manner was so

we we

have find

suppose In

that

ourselves That

quite

afloat.

like

with almost of

regard

to

light.
the

it consists of

of vibrations

proved by

phenomena

while diffraction, of the

those
to

showed polarization
to

the excursions line of

particles
but the

be

perpendicular
of be

the

propagation;

phenomena
which
ress

dispersion, etc.,require additional

very

hypotheses
prog If

may

complicated. Thus,

the

further uncertain.

of molecular
are

speculation appears
to

quite
or

hypotheses they

be

tried

haphazard,

simply

because

will suit certain

phenomena,
world

it will occupy say half

a

the mathe
on num

matical average ber

one

physicistsof the
to

century

the

bring each theory to

may
we

the up

test,and
into the

since the

of

possible theories
can

go have

trillions, only making

When

of which

be true,
to

little prospect of
our

further solid additions

we come

the

subject in

time.
a

to

atoms, the presumption in favor of

slender. There is
room

simple law
doubt

seems

very

for

serious

62

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

whether

the

fundamental and
more

laws

of mechanics

hold
are

good

for

singleatoms,
of motion To
must

it

seems

quite likelythat they

three dimensions. molecules laws and

capable

in

than
more

find out search

out

much
a

about

atoms,

we

natural

history of
which the

of nature, which in favor

may of

fulfil that

function

presumption
of
to
we

simple
us

laws what such

not

fulfilled in the kind of laws

early days
we

dynamics, by
expect and

showing

have Can

by

answering
prospect of
attract
one

questions as

this:

with

reasonable
atoms

wasting time, try inverselyas

we

the

suppositionthat
power

another
can

the seventh suppose

of their laws and of

distances,or
nature

not?

To

universal the but mind

capable
no reason

of

being apprehended by
for their

yet
in

having

specialforms,
a

standing

explicable and
Uniformities accounted up heads
are

is hardly irrational,

justifiable position.
need
to

preciselythe
That
a

sort

of facts that should for

no

be

for. and

pitched coin
tails calls heads every

sometimes

turn

sometimes if it shows has been

particular ex
wish
to know
ex

planation;but
how

time, we
Law

this result the the and

brought
a

about.

is par

cellence Now
nature

thing

that

wants

reason.

only possibleway
for

of in

accounting
is to

for the laws suppose

to

of

uniformity
This

general

them abso of

results

of evolution.
to

supposes

them It makes

not
an

be

lute,not

be

obeyed precisely.

element

indeterminacy, spontaneity, or Just

find and
as,
our

absolute

chance

in nature.
we

when

we

attempt
cannot

to

verify any
be

physical law,

observations

precisely satisfied by it,

to
errors

rightlyattribute
we

the

discrepancy
far
more

of observa

tion,so

must

suppose

minute

discrepanciesto

THE

ARCHITECTURE

OF

THEORIES

163
to itself,
a

exist

owing

to

the

imperfect cogency
of the facts from
to

of the law any definite

certain Mr.

swerving
Herbert

formula.
upon

Spencer

wishes is

explain evolution
four

mechanical

principles.This
the

for illogical,

reasons. ex

First,because
traneous

principle of evolution
the

requires no
can

cause;

since

tendency
from
an

to

growth

be supacci than

posed

itself to have

grown

infinitesimal law

germ
more

dentally started. anything

because
out

Second, because

ought

else to be law

supposed

result of evolution.
can

Third,

exact

obviously never
and

produce heterogeneity
the

of

homogeneity;
of the universe the

arbitrary heterogeneity is
manifest and

feature

the most law of the

characteristic. of energy is

Fourth, because

conservation all

equivalentto
by
mechanical

the

proposition that
are

operations governed
that
an

laws

reversible;so growth
violated
a

immediate those

corollaryfrom laws, even

In if

it is that

is not

explicableby
of

they be

not

in the process

growth.

short, Spencer
a

is not
"

but philosophicalevolutionist,
or,

only

half-evolutionist,
Now
none.

if you

will,only

semievo

Spencerian.
lutionism The
or

philosophy requires thoroughgoing

theory
about

of

Darwin the action

was

that

evolution

had

been

brought
as a

by

of two

factors:

heredity, first,
their

principle making

offspring nearly resemble

for
"

parents, while yet giving room

accidental or sporting,"
wider
races ones

variations,
"

for very

variations often, for slight

destruction birth
rate

rarely;and, second, the

are

of breeds
up
to

or

that
rate.

unable

to

keep

the

the

death

This

Darwinian

principleis plainly capable of great

there
are

gen

eralization.

Wherever

large numbers

of

objects,

64
a

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

having
this for

tendency

to

retain
not

certain

characters but

unaltered, giving room

is

tendency, however,
chance

being

absolute
amount

variations, then,
in certain reaches
to

if the

of variation

absolutely limited
of

directions those in

by

the

destruction will be
a

everything

which

there limits, directions of down

gradual tendency
from
an

change
a

departure
to

them. game,

Thus,
since of is

if

million after who

players sit
another remain

bet

at

even

one

will get will

ruined, the

average
crease.

wealth Here

those

perpetually in
of

indubitably a genuine
its

formula

possible
or

whether evolution, in the The

ment

operation accounts
and

for much

little

development
Lamarckian of

of animal

vegetable species.
that the

theory
taken

also

supposes
a

develop
of in

species has changes,

but

place by
that

long series
those

sensible taken quence

no

it supposes lives of

changes

have

place during
of effort and

the

the

in individuals,

conse

and exercise,

that

reproduction plays
modifica the

part in the process

except in preserving these

tions.

Thus,

the

Lamarckian

theory only explains

development
the Darwinian
acters

of characters

for which

while individuals strive, char be

theory only explainsthe production of

to

really beneficial

the
more

race,

though
and

these

may

fatal to individuals.2

But

broadly

philosophically by
the opera

conceived, Darwinian
tion of

evolution
the

is evolution of

chance,

and

destruction

bad
the

while results,

Lamarckian and A effort. third

evolution

is evolution

by

effect of habit

theory of evolution
Weismann,
from the

is that of Mr.

Clarence

King.
would

The

neo-Darwinian,

has

shown of the

that

mortality

almost

necessarilyresult

action

Darwinian

principle.

THE

ARCHITECTURE

OF

THEORIES

165
is that

The
are

testimony
unmodified

of monuments
or

and

of rocks

species
cir
or

scarcely modified, under

are

ordinary

cumstances,

but

rapidly altered
Under

after

cataclysms

changes. rapid geological

often
see

novel

we circumstances,

animals

and

plants sporting excessivelyin

even

repro

duction, and

sometimes

undergoing
no

transformations due up

during
the

individual

life, phenomena
of from vitality

doubt

partly

to

enfeeblement of

the

breaking

of hab direct is

itual modes

life, partly to changed food, partly to

of the element has in which the

influence specific immersed.

way,
not

organism
in

If

evolution have its

been

brought
not

about

this

only

single steps

been

as insensible,

both

Darwinians

and

Lamarckians

suppose,
on

but

they
nor

are

furthermore determined

neither

haphazard

the

one

hand,

yet
the have that

by
are

an

inward

strivingon

the

other, but
and

on

contrary
a
'

effects of the

changed environment,
to

positivegeneral tendency
since variation

adapt

the

organism

to

environment,
at
once

will

affect particularly This up mode of and while of

organs

enfeebled
forces

and and

stimulated.
the

evolution,
to

by
be

external called of the

as

breaking
broadest

habits,seems
most

for

by

some

of the

important

facts been
,

biology
chief

and

paleontology;
in the

it

certainly has
of institu

factor of

historical
cannot

evolution

tions
a

in that

ideas; and
in the

possibly be refused
of evolution of the

very

prominent place
in

process

universe

general.
find the

Passing to psychology, we
of mind fall into three all that is

elementary phenomena
have such
we

we categories. First,

Feelings,
as

comprising

immediately present,
arises when

pain,

the feelingthat blue, cheerfulness,

contem-

66

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

platea
having
state

consistent its
own

etc. theory,

is feeling

state

of mind other

living quality,independent
is Or, a feeling
an

of

any

of mind.

element
every such
a

of consciousness
state

which

override might conceivably

the

other

until it

monopolized
cannot

mind, although
and realized, is

rudimentary state
not

actuallybe

would

properly be

consciousness.
the

it Still,

conceivable,or
usurp the

that supposable,

quality of blue
of the and

should of

whole

mind,

to

the

exclusion
mencement

ideas

shape, extension, contrast,

all other

com

and cessation,

ideas,whatsoever.
it

A had

for if perfectlysimple,in itself, feelingis necessarily

parts these
was

would

also thus

be

in the

mind,

whenever

the

whole

present, and

the whole

could not

monopolize

the mind.3 Besides

Feelings,we
blindfold

have

Sensations

of

reaction; as

when
we

person
a

suddenly runs
when

against a post, when

any

make
a new

muscular

or effort,

gives way feeling

my mind but
to
a

to
a

feeling. Suppose
were

I had

nothing in
to

feelingof blue, which

suddenly

give place

of red; then,at feeling

the instant

of transition

there would

be

shock, a

sense

of

reaction, my
If I
were

blue

life

being

trans
a

muted memory,

into red
that
sense a

life.

further
for
some

endowed

with

would

continue

time, and there

connected

would
with

also be
it. This

peculiar feelingor feeling might

of the

sentiment

last

endure

(conceivably I
and the the

mean) after
of blue reaction and

the memory

occurrence

feelings
of

red

had

passed

away.

But

sensation

cannot

exist except in the

actual

presence

of the

feeling may
is not

certainlybe compound,
that

but

only in virtue
all.

of

per

ception which

feelingnor

any

feeling at

THE

ARCHITECTURE

OF

THEORIES

167
Wherever

two
we

feelingsblue
have
two

and

red

to

which

it relates.
to
a

and feelings of

pay

attention

relation be
sensation and of of

tween

them I
two
am

whatever
But

kind, there
the
sense

is the

which has

speaking.
it may

of action
a

reaction relation

types:
two

either it may

be be
a

perception
sense

between action this

or ideas,

of action of
two
to us,

and

re

between

and feeling

something again

out

feeling. And
forms; by
no

sense a

of external
sense

reaction

has

for it
act

is either ours,
we

of

something happening
the matter,
or

of
re

being passivein
our

it is

sense

of

that is,of sistance,

expending feelingupon
is thus
a sense

something

without.
or

The

sense

of reaction

of connection

comparison

between

either,A, feelings, feelingand

between

one

feelingand
or

another, or B, between
and under B
we

its absence
sense

lower
access

degree;
of

have, First,the
sense

of

the

and feeling,

Second, the

of remission

of

feeling. Very
sensations

different both
or

from of

feelings and
are feeling

from

reaction-

disturbances
are

generalconceptions.
a

When

we

think,we
determined

conscious

that

connection
are

between
aware

is feelings

by
a

general rule,we
Intellectual and in in

of

being governed by
but

habit.

power

is

nothing
in
cases re

in taking habits facility

followingthem

essentially analogous to,

mote

but

non-essentials of

widely

from, the
those
one

normal
were

cases

of connections

under feelings

which

habits

formed.
fundamental
to

The
consists

primary
a

and

law

of mental

action
to

in

tendency

generalization. Feeling tends feelings awaken assimilated;ideas

are

spread;

connections

between

feelings;
apt
to

neighboringfeelingsbecome

68

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

reproduce themselves.
the of
one

These

are

so

many When

formulations
a

of

law

of the

growth

of mind.
a

disturbance
of

takes place, we feeling of

have
a new

consciousness

gain, the
apt to

gain

experience;and
one more

disturbance

will be it.

assimilate itself to the become being excited,

ways

that

preceded

by Feelings,
the

in easilyexcited,especially The

in which

been excited. they have previously

a

con

sciousness
The

of such

habit

constitutes

general conception.
may be corrected Feel
an

cloudiness

of

notions psychological with

to

by connecting
ing may
excited be

them

conceptions. physiological
a

supposed

wherever exist, disturbance

the of

nerve-cell

is in
sense

condition.

The

or feeling,

of

reaction,accompanies
tween

transmission
a

of disturbance
to
a

be
or

nerve-cells external

or

from of

nerve-cell
a

muscle-cell concep

the

stimulation

nerve-cell. of habits

General

tions arise upon which and

are

the formation

in the nerve-matter, upon its

molecular

changes consequent
with
a

activity

probably

connected

its nutrition.

The

law of habit

exhibits

strikingcontrast
A

to all

physi

cal laws

in the character What it

of its commands.
an a

physical law
Thus,

is absolute.
a

requires is
into the

exact

relation.
a

physical force
to

introduces with

motion

component

motion of

be

combined the
as

rest

by

the

parallelogram actually take

forces; but

component

motion the is law

must

place exactly
other law.

required by

of

force.
the

On

the

hand, Nay,
the

no

exact

conformity

required by
be
in

mental
con

exact

conformity
since it would

would

downright

flictwith and mind

law;

thought crystallize instantly

of habit. The law of It

prevent

all further
a

formation

only

makes

given feelingmore

likely to

arise.

THE

ARCHITECTURE

OF

THEORIES

169
of
to

thus such

resembles
as

the

"

non-conservative the which like,

encounters

"

forces due

physics,

and viscosity in the

are

statistical

uniformities
cules. The in

chance

of trillions of mole

old dualistic notion

as

of mind

and

matter,

so

prominent
of

Cartesianism,

two

different radically

kinds

sub

stance, will hardly find defenders

we are

to-day.

Rejectingthis,
otherwise called

driven Then
one

to

some

form

of

hylopathy,
whether
on

monism.
on

the

question
the

arises

physical laws
the other
are

the

hand, and
"

psychical law

to

be taken

(A)
which

as

independent, a doctrine often called monism, but

name

I would the

neutralism; or,
as

(B)
cal law

psychicallaw
as

derived

and is and

the physi special,

alone

primordial, which
as

materialism;

or,

(C) the physicallaw

law alone
as

derived

the psychical special,

primordial, which
doctrine
to
common seems

is idealism.
to
me

The

materialistic

quite as repugnant
since it will
to

to scientific
to suppose

logicas
a

sense;

requiresus
which feel, reason,
"

that
a

certain

kind

of mechanism

would
an

be

hypothesis absolutely irreducible

the

while inexplicable regularity; ultimate, any

only possible
make

of justification clear and

theory

is that

it should

things

reasonable.
is

Neutralism known
as

condemned sufficiently
razor, that i.e., than

by
not

the
more

maxim logical

Ockham's
are

independent By placing
on a

elements
the
seems

to

be

supposed

necessary.

inward
to
one

and render

outward both

aspects of substance

par,

it

primordial.
of the

The

theory intelligible

universe

is that of ob-

7o

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

that jectiveidealism,

matter

is effete But

mind, inveterate habits

this
can

becoming physicallaws.
it must show space, the for

before

be

accepted

itself capable of
the laws of

the explaining and the

tridimension-

alityof

motion,

general charac
clearness
of and

teristics of

with universe,
no

mathematical

precision;

less

should

be

demanded

every

Philosophy.
Modern mathematics is I with replete

ideas which
one or

may

be
The

applied to philosophy.
manner

can

only

notice

two.

in which

mathematicians

is generalize
to

very of
a

instruc

tive.

Thus, painters are

accustomed

think

picture

as

of consisting geometrically rays of

the intersections of its

plane
But

by

lightfrom
use a

the

natural

objects to

the For

eye.

geometers
in the

generalized perspective.*
be the eye, let A
find further

instance

let figure

be the

edge-

[The

reader of
or

will

light

on

the

following illustration in

any

text-book 17-24,

projective geometry,

e.g., p.

Reye,

Geometry

of Position,

I, pp.

Encyc. Britannka, XI,

689.!

THE

ARCHITECTURE

OF

THEORIES

171

wise view

view of

of any another

plane,and
plane.

let
The

be the edgewise
draw the rays

geometers
treat

through O cutting both

of intersection of each

these
ray of

planes,and
one same

points

with the

plane as
ray

representing
the other D

the point of intersection

with

plane. Thus,

represents E, in the
C A eye. is

painter'sway.
c, which
a

represents itself.
from other down of the side
to

represented by represented by
Such

is further is
not
on

eye; of

and
the

is

which

the

is generalization

bound

sensuous

images. Further, accordingto point

every
on one on

this mode
a

representation every
the
a

plane represents
the how latter is repre

point on
sented

other,and
point on
a

point

by

the former.
from the

But

about
the is in

the

point

/ which

is in

direction

to parallel

represented
a

plane, and parallelto

these allow As
a are

how the

about

point

which

direction say does that

not

representing plane?
modern

Some

will

exceptions;but
can

mathematics

exceptions which point

moves

be annulled
to

by generalization.5
thence
to

from

and

and

off

toward
moves

the corresponding point on infinity, from

c

the other

plane
this

to

and

thence

to

and
a;

toward and when

/.

But

second

point can

pass

through f
at

to

it is there that the line

the first point has first

arrived

A
.

We

therefore say
that

and point has passed through infinity,

to

every

joinsin

itself somewhat

like

an

oval.

Geometers

talk of

[A

more

familiar like V*-

example
After the idea

of
was

this is the

introduction that
no

of irrational

or

surd could

numbers

it

proved

ratio of two

integers
the
same

possibly equal V5
Fractions
of and

of number

was

generalized to include
numbers illustrate the certain

latter.
process

the

so-called

imaginary
sake of

generalization for the finding the

root)

making

operations (i.e.

division and

continuously applicable.

72

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

the parts of lines at

a

an

infinite distance

as

points.

This

is

kind

of

generalization very
views of
an

efficient in mathematics. have

a

Modern

measurement

philosophical
of
measur a

aspect.

There
a

is

indefinite number
a

of systems

ing along
scale of
on one

line; thus,
line may

perspective representationof
to measure

be taken

another, although
agree with To what
we

course

such

measurements

will not

call the distances

a

of

points on
on a

the latter line. line

we

establish distinct
we

system of measurement
to

must

assign a

number

each
to

point
suppose of

of

and it, the

for this purpose carried

out

shall
an

plainly have
infinite
must

numbers of decimals.

into

number

places
the

These

numbers
sequence. should into
to a

be

ranged
in order it must

along
that

line
a

in

unbroken

Further,
of
any

such

scale of numbers
of

be
new

use,

be

capable

being

shifted

each number positions,

continuing to
it is found
as

be attached if this

single
for

distinct point.
"

Now

that

is true

imaginary

"

as

well

for

real

points (an expression

such
to the

which

I cannot

stop
two

to

elucidate),any
attached scale

shiftingwill
same over

leave necessarily
as

numbers when the

points
the line
are

before. any

So that

is moved
one

by
two

continuous

series of
no1

of shiftings
on

kind, there
can ever

points which

numbers fixed

the This

scale

reach,

except the numbers

unattainable
two
or

there.

pair

of

points,thus
These

in measurement, be

is called the Absolute.

or they real,

points may they

may

distinct and

may of

coincide,
a

be both
a

imaginary.
absolute
an

As
we

an

example
take

linear

quantity with
which ranges

double from

may

probability, certainty
absolute

unattainable
an

absolute

against a proposition to

equally unattainable

THE

ARCHITECTURE

OF

THEORIES

173

certaintyfor
have
seen

it. A

line,according quantity where

another

to

we ordinary notions,

is a linear A

the two A

pointsat infinity
train
would

coincide. infinite the time

velocityis

example.
New
same

going with
be at all if the be
ex

velocityfrom
the
were

Chicago to
the very

York

points on
of transit in the of
a

line at

and instant,

reduced

to less than

nothing it would
is
a

moving ample
values.

other of the

direction.

An with

angle
no

familiar

mode of

magnitude

real immeasurable
to

One
the
an

questions philosophy has

of the universe

consider

is whether
crease

development
that it

is like the in

of

angle,so

proceeds

forever

without
to

tend
be the
a

ing toward

anything unattained, which

or

I take sprang

Epicurean view,
chaos in the different

whether

the

universe
to

from
some

distant past infinitely in the

tend

toward

thing

distant infinitely

future, or
past
to

whether
go
on

the universe

sprang
a

from

nothing
in the

in the

in

toward definitely

point

distant infinitely

future,

which,
which

were

it

would attained,

be

the

mere

nothing from

it set out.

The

doctrine
"

of the absolute

applied to

space

comes

to

that either this,

First, space immeasurable, plane

case
1

is, as
so

Euclid the

teaches,both

unlimited
of

and any

that

distant parts infinitely

as a

seen

in
sum

perspective appear
of the three

in straightline,
a

which
to

the
or,

angles of

triangleamounts

80";

Second, space
distant infinitely appear this
case as a

is immeasurable

but

limited,so
seen

that

the

parts of any
which

plane

in

perspective
in

beyond circle,
sum

all is

blackness, and
a

the

of the

three

angles of

triangleis less

i74

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

than

80"

by

an

amount

proportional to

the

area

of

the

triangle; or,
Third,
a

space

is unlimited that it has any

no

but

finite, (likethe surface

but

of
a

sphere), so

distant parts; infinitely would with

finite
to his

journey along

straightline

bring
an

one

back

and looking off original position,

one

unobstructed

view

would

see

the back
case

of his
sum

own

head three

enormously angles of
a

magnified, in

which

the

of the

exceeds triangle
area.

180"

by

an

amount

proportionalto

the

Which
The

of

these

three

hypotheses is
can measure

true

we as

know have
star

not.

we triangles largest

are

such of
a

the for

earth's orbit for base, and altitude. The

the

distance

fixed

angular magnitude resultingfrom

subtract
a

ing the
from
1

sum

of the two is called the

anglesat
star's have

the base

of such The

triangle

80"

parallax.
been

of parallaxes
as

only
of
star

about
come

forty stars
out

measured of

yet.

Two
a

them of

negative, that
is
star
" "

Added

(a Cycni),

magnitude ij, which

that which of
a

o."o82,according to
of

C. A.
as

F.

Peters, and
III 422,

magnitude yf
to

known
,

Piazzi But

is

o."o45, according

R.
to

S. Ball. be
at

these
to

negative parallaxesare
errors

undoubtedly
the

tributed
such
a

of

observation; for
is about
were
=*=

probable error
it would
as

of be

determination if
we

o."o75, and
able
to

strange indeed
more

to

be

see,

it were,
to
see

than with

half way

round

space,

without

being able
the
come

stars

larger negative parallaxes. Indeed,

only
that
two

very
out

fact that of all the parallaxesmeasured

negative

would

be

strong
to

argument

the

smallest
re-

parallaxesreallyamount

o."i, were

it not

for the

THE

ARCHITECTURE

OF

THEORIES

I?s

flection that
may have

the

publicationof

other
we

negative parallaxes
may feel confident between
our

been

suppressed.

I think

that the
"

parallaxof

the furthest

star lies somewhere

o/'o5 and + o." 1 5, and within

children
will

another the

century
three
"

grand
of
are a

surely
greater

know
or

whether

angles they

triangle are exactly that

less than

180",
ever

that be the

amount

is what that

nobody

can

in justified axioms of pre

concluding.
geometry
the

It
sum

is true

according
of
a

to

of the three sides these that axioms

are

are triangle

cisely 1 80";

but

now

exploded, and
not

geometers confess
reason slightest

they, as

geometers, know
them
to

the

for

supposing
our

be

true. precisely

They
and have fords
as

are

expressions of
are

inborn

conception
far
as

of

space, could

such

entitled to credit, so
the formation of for

their truth But them ape

a

influenced
not

the

mind.

that
exact.

af

the

reason slightest

supposing
the of

Now, metaphysics
matics.

has

always been
the idea

of mathe

Geometry
of

suggested

demonstrative

system
the

certain absolutely of the drawn

philosophicalprinciples;and
at

ideas

metaphysicianshave
from mathematics.

all times
The

been

in

large part
axioms that the
are

metaphysical
and
now

imitations

of the been

geometrical axioms;

the latter have former will be

we can

thrown after
no

overboard, without
It is
to

doubt in

sent

them.
reason

evident, for
that

stance, that

have

think

every

phenomenon
mined universe be

in all its minutest That

"

details is
an

deter precisely in the

by
we

law.
see,
to

there is
its

arbitrary element
This

namely,

variety.
some

variety must

attributed
Had I
more

spontaneity in
space, I
now

form.
to

ought

show

how

important

176
for Most

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

philosophy is
of what

the mathematical in

conception of continuity.
is
a

is true

Hegel

darkling glimmer
had

of made

conception which
pretty clear,and
illustrated.

the mathematicians which

recent

long before
have

researches

still further

Among

the

many

of Logic principles
can

which

find

their
one.

application in Philosophy, I
Three

here

only

mention
at

conceptions are theory

of

perpetuallyturning up
in the
one

every

point

in every

and logic, with and may

most

rounded

systems
are con

they

occur

in connection very
to

another.

They

ceptionsso
are

broad and

consequently indefinite
be

that I

they
call

hard the

seize

easilyoverlooked.
Third. of First

them

conceptions of First,Second,

is the

conception of being or existing independent

Second tion of is the

anything else.

conception

of

being

relative

to, the concep

is the
are con

reaction

with, something else.

a

Third second

ception of mediation,whereby
into

first and

brought
how

relation.

To

illustrate these
we

ideas, I

will show The

they enter
of

into those

have
not
as

been

considering.
to

origin
but in of

things,considered
the

leading

anything,
of

contains itself,

idea

of

First, the end

between the

things that

Second,
A

the process which

mediating

them idea

that of Third. of the for the

philosophy

emphasizes

One,

is

generallya
of Second of of

dualistic philosophy in which

receives
course a

conception
this is One

exaggerated attention; involving the

which idea of

(though
the other

First)
The

always
of the is

manifold

is not

one.

idea

Many,

because

variety is
any

arbitrariness

and

arbitrariness

repudiation of
ponent
the

Secondness, has
In

for its

principalcom
is

conception of First.

psychology Feeling

THE

ARCHITECTURE

OF

THEORIES

177

First, Sense
or

of reaction In

Second, General
idea of

conception Third,

mediation.

biology,the

arbitrary sportingis
the accidental is

First,heredity is Second, the process

characters is become the fixed is Third.
to

whereby
Chance

First,Law
Mind is

Second,

tendency
is

take

habits

is Third.

First,Matter
Such
are

Second,

Evolution
out

is Third.
a philosophical chiefly

the materials
to

of which order
to

theory ought knowledge

Without
to

be

in built,

represent the state

of
us.

which into

the nineteenth other

century has brought

of

going

important questions
can

philoso
sort

we phical architectonic, a

readily

foresee

what

of

metaphysics

would

appropriatelybe
some

constructed
most

from and

those
some

conceptions. Like
of the most
recent

of

the

ancient

speculationsit
suppose
was a

would

be

Cosmo-

gonic Philosophy.
"

It would
"

that chaos
or

in the of

beginning,

infinitely remote,
which feeling,

there without

unpersonalized

being
without

connection This

regularitywould

properlybe
and of
a

existence.

sporting here feeling,

have started the germ be

there

in pure

would arbitrariness,

generalizingtendency.
but
to

Its other have be

a

sportings would
virtue. from

evanescent,
the the

this would habit would

growing

Thus,

tendency
other

started; and
all the

this with the

an

of principles would of pure be

evolution

of regularities

universe element world

evolved.

At

any and

time, however,
will remain

chance
an

survives

until the sym the

becomes

absolutely perfect, rational,and

mind is at last

metrical

system, in which
future.
been the

in crystallized

distant infinitely That

idea has
for

worked
main

out

by
of

me

with

elaboration.
as we

It accounts

features

the

universe

78

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

know

it,

the
"

characters

of

time,
It

space,

matter,

force,

gravitation,
which
new

electricity,
observations

etc.

predicts

many
to

more

things
May
have
the

can

alone

bring
ground
world.

the

test.

some

future

student

go

over

this

again,

and

leisure

to

give

his

results

to

the

II.

THE

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

IN what

The

Monist

for

January, ought

1891,
to enter
on

endeavored into
our

to

show of the I

elementary
I may

ideas

view

universe.
had

mention
a

that cosmical number

those

considerations and from it had

already grounded
a

theory,
of

deduced
of
now

considerable
with but

consequences This

capable
is

being
in

compared
progress,

experience.

comparison
must

under

existing

circumstances

occupy

many

years.

I propose

here
in

to

examine
is

the

common

belief
determined
a

that

every law.

single
It
must

fact
not

the be

universe

precisely
this is

by

supposed
at

that

doctrine
men.

accepted
Its first

everywhere
advocate
was
"

and

all times been

by

all rational

appears
to

to have
we are

Democritus, by

the

atomist, who
upon the

led

it, as

informed,
and

reflecting impact
of

impenetrability,

translation,
/cat

matter

(avTLTViria Kal
say,
ence

(fropa

7r\r)yrj rrjs v\r)s)." That

to
a

is to influ
come

having
other his

restricted than

his attention

field where

no

mechanical he

constraint

could
to

possibly
the

before
that

notice,

straightway
universe that
so

jumped
was

conclusion

throughout
"

the

the
in

sole
our

principle of
with
men

action,
not

style of reasoning
to

usual
than in

day

unreflecting as
of

be

more

excusable

in
the

the

in

fancy
doctrine

thought.
and

But

Epicurus,
its

revising

atomic

repairing

defences, found

himself

obliged

The

Monist,

April, 1892.
179

8o

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

to

suppose

that

atoms

swerve

from he
now

their

courses

by
the

spon

taneous

chance;

and

thereby
For
we

conferred
see

upon

theory
pe

life and culiar

to

entelechy.
function
an

clearly that the

in

of

the

molecular

hypothesis
of

physics

is

open

entry for the calculus

probabilities.Already, emphatically
the

the

prince of philosophershad
the dictum of

repeatedly and

condemned
"

Democritus

(especiallyin

Physics," Book
to

II, chapters iv, v, vi),holding that

ways,

events
com

come

pass

in three action
or

namely, (i) by

external

pulsion,or
an

the

of efficient causes, the influence

(2) by

virtue and

of

inward

nature,

of final causes, but

(3)

without irregularly

definite

cause,

just by
essence

absolute of Aris-

chance;

and

this doctrine It
at affords,

is of the inmost any

totelianism. of
to

rate, a valuable

enumeration be

the have

possibleways
come

in which The

anything
of

can

supposed
was

about.

freedom and

the

will,too,
But
most

admitted which

both

by Aristotle department

by Epicurus.
upon the

the

Stoa,

in every

seized

tangible,

hard, and
of every

lifeless

element, and

blindly denied

the existence the

other, which, for example, impugned

method and wished
to

validity
the

of the inductive reductio ad

fillits

place with
the
one

absurdum, very naturallybecame

school

of ancient thus

philosophy
to
a

to

stand

by

strict

necessitarianism,
that

returning
had

single principleof Democritus

unable
the At
to

Epicurus
and

been with

swallow.
hand

Necessitarianism in

materialism

Stoics went
the

hand,

as

by

affinity they
met

should.

revival of learning,Stoicism
because it

with

considerable

favor, partly
to

departed

just enough from

and

Aristotle its

give

it the

spice of novelty, adapted

it for

partly because

well superficialities

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

181

acceptance by students
their

of literature and mild.

art

who

wanted dis

philosophy drawn
in mechanics

Afterwards, the great

coveries

inspired the hope that

mechanical

might principles
without

suffice to

explainthe universe; and

has

though
con

this hope justification, logical

since been
in

tinually stimulated Nevertheless,the

the freedom

by subsequent
doctrine
was

advances
evident
to
arose

physics.

in too with

conflict with be

of the first. of

will and But

miracles there

generally
that
most

acceptable,at widely spread

associationalism

meantime

blunders, philosophical
to belongs intrinsically

the

notion

that

the

materialistic
the

family

of

doctrines; and
libertarianism has

thus

was

evolved weakened. the

theory
At

of

motives; and
historical and in
so

became

present,

criticism that

almost

exploded
of

miracles, great
never

small; so

the doctrine
as now.

necessityhas

been

great vogue

The

proposition in question
any

is that

the state

of

things
laws,

at existing

time, together with

the state of

certain

immutable every

completely determine (for

a

things at
is

other time

limitation the the

state

to

future time
universe
a

indefensible).Thus,
originalnebula, and
mind

given given
could

of the of from

in the

laws

mechanics,
these data
am

sufficiently powerful
the

deduce

precise form

of every

curlicue Whoever idea

of every holds mind

letter I

now

writing.
of the will
as

that every is under with

to

act

well
of

as a

every
neces

of the

the

rigid governance

sityco-ordinated cally be
the carried

that

of the

physical world, will logi

minds the
are

the

proposition that
a sense

part of
of
me

physical world
determine

in such

that

laws

chanics

everything

that

happens

according to

182

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

immutable
instantaneous

attractions
state

and

repulsions. In
which

that case,
other

that
state

of

things from

every

of thingsis calculable consists in the

of
most

and positions

velocities
usual and

all the

at particles

any

instant.

This,

the

form logical

of

is called necessitarianism,

the mechani

cal philosophy.
When
to

I have

asked
every the
"

thinkingmen
fact in the
answer

what universe has

"

reason

they

had

believe that

is

de precisely that scien

termined the

by law,
a

first

usually been
of postulate
can

is proposition

presupposition
is the

or

tific for

reasoning. Well, if that

is doomed. it true, nor for

best that
it be
as
"

be said

it,the belief
not

Suppose
so

postulated":

that does
est

make

much
any

afford the

slight
as

rational motive
a man

yielding it
to

credence. and

It is

if for To

should

come

borrow

money, he
no
"

when
"

asked loan. it is

his
"

security,should
"

reply

postulated
more

the

postulate
There upon if

propositionis

than

to

hope
in

true.
we

are,

indeed, practicalemergencies
certain
can

which

act

assumptions of
are

propositionsas
no

true,
how

because
we

they

not

so, it

make take

difference be
no

act.

But

all such

propositionsI
For

to

hypotheses
universal
a

of

individual

facts.
in its

it is manifest

that

can principle case or can

be comprised universality the

in

special

be
To

for requisite say, of for

validityof
the lever

any

ordinary

inference.

instance, that
of the with who

demonstration
would fall to

by
the

Archimedes

the
were

property
endowed

ground

if

men

is extrava free-will, make will the the

a

gant; yet this is implied by those

proposition postulateof
of

incompatible with
all inference.

the

freedom

of the that

Considering, too,

conclusions

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

183
and probable,
at most

science

make

no

pretence
a

to

being

more

than
can

considering that
suppose

probable inference
to

only

something

be

most
never

or frequently,

otherwise is

approximately, true, but

true

that

anything

precisely
see

without

exception throughout the universe,we

truth of
a or

how

far this But

propositionin
whole

is from
a

being so postulated.
involved in

the

notion

postulate being
and

reasoning appertains to logic. Non-deductive,

kinds: any

by-gone

false

conception of
of three

is ampliative inference,

induction,hypothesis, and
other

analogy.

If

there

be

modes, they

must

be

extremely unusual
with

and

highly complicated, and

to

may
as

be assumed
those

little doubt
For

be of the

same

nature

enumerated. far
as

induc

and tion, hypothesis, character

not

analogy, as
is, so
far
as

their

ampliative something

goes,

that the

they conclude
upon
one

implied in
the
same

premises, depend procedure.

a

and principle

involve from with whole pose the

All

are

inferences essentially
at
some

sampling. Suppose
wheat cargo that in bulk. be

ship

arrives

Liverpool laden machinery

the

Suppose
up

that

by

stirred

with

great thoroughness. Sup

twenty-seven thimble fuls be taken

aft parts, from from that the

equally
the

from

forward, midships, and

larboard

starboard, depth,

center, and
and and
to be

parts, and

top, half

lower the of

parts of her

hold,

and

these

being mixed
are

grains counted, qualityA.

Then

four-fifths
we

of the

latter

found pro

and infer, experientially four-fifths I say of all the

we

that approximately visionally, the cargo is of the

same

grain in
ex

quality.

infer this that

we

and perientially

provisionally. By saying
mean

infer
no

it

experientiallyI
,

that

our

conclusion

makes

pre-

84
to

LOVE

AND

CHANCE
our wheat-in-itself,

tension
as

knowledge

of

the

derivation wheat.

of that

word
are

implies,has

nothing
the

to

do

with of of

latent

We
"

dealing only
the

with

matter

experience, possible
the
term
as as

experience in
not

full acceptation
senses

something

the merely affecting If there neither be

turn

but also
hidden

the subject of thought.

the

any up

wheat in the
"

on nor

ship, so
heard of

that

it

can

sample
or

be

subsequently from
that it may,
"

purchasers,
up, but
our or

if it be

so half-hidden,

indeed, turn
or

is less
senses

likelyto
and
our

do

so

than

the rest, from

if it

can

affect
cause

pockets,but
cannot

some

strange
"

causelessness
is to be

be

reasoned

about,
its

all such

wheat in

excluded

(or
true to

have

only

proportionalweight)
to

that calculating inference the that

as

proportion of qualityA, By saying

that
we

which
we

our

seeks

approximate.
mean

that do

draw hold

inference
we

I provisionally, reached any that

not

have

assigned degree
if
our

of

approximation

yet, but

only

hold

experience be indefinitely
nature, as
to

extended, and

if every

fact of whatever

fast

as

it

be duly applied,according presents itself,

the
our

inductive

method, in correctingthe inferred

mation will become

ratio,then
in the

approxi
run; that close

close indefinitely

long

is to say,

close to the of
a

experience to
finite

come

(not merely
that if

by
in
to

the exhaustion

so collection)

experience
a manner

general is deprive
able
to

to

fluctuate ratio
out

to irregularly

and

fro,in

the

sought

of

all definite within

value,we
what

shall it

be

find

approximately
one

limits

after having and if, fluctuates, and in

assumes

definite
to

value, it changes
find that out, and of this ratio in

another,

we

shall be able be the

short, whatever

may

variations

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

185
us

extended experience,experience indefinitely

to

will enable

detect

them,
value

so

as

to

what at last, predict rightly, if it have any of that ultimate

its

ultimate what there

tuates

may

be,
law

value, or
may

the be

ultimate
any

of succession

values
it

be,

if

such

ultimate

law,

or

ultimately fluc
do
so no

within irregularly Now

our

certain

if it limits,

ultimately
more

fluctuate. thus

claiming to inference,

be

than
no

and experiential

manifestly involves provisional,

postulatewhatever.
For what is
a

postulate?
we are

It is the formulation entitled to

assume as a

of

ma

terial fact which

but the truth of

not

premise,
an

which

is

requisiteto might
it would

the be

validityof

inference.

Any fact, then,which

either

supposed postu

lated,must
itself in need
we

be such

that

ultimatelypresent
we itself,

experience, or postulateit now

not.

If it will present
our

not

in

since provisionalinference,
to
use

shall
never

ultimatelybe entitled
would but

it

as

premise.

But

if it

our present itself in experience,

conclusion otherwise

is valid than
ence

for the that

of possibility

this fact
as we

being

assumed,
goes, and
cut

is,it

is valid

far

as

possibleexperi Thus,
every the

that

is all that the

claim.

postulate is

off,either by
our

or provisionality by

of experientiality said that induction be is

inference.

For

instance,it
an

has

been

postulatesthat,if

indefinite

succes

sion of

samples
the
next
as

drawn, examined, and

drawn,
as

thrown

back every

each

before

then

in the

long run

grain

will be drawn that

are

often

any

that other, of times

is to say, in which
to

postulates
any But
are

the ratio of the drawn

will

numbers

two
no

indefinitely approximate
for

unity. hand,
we

such

postulateis made;

if,on

the

one

to

86

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

have

no

other

experience

of

the

wheat

than

from

such

drawings, it is the
and
not

ratio that presents itself in those'

drawings

the

ratio which
we are

belongs

to

the
to

wheat

in its latent

existence
on

that

endeavoring
is
our some

determine; while if,

mode

the

other is to

hand,
come

there

other

by

which

the
an

wheat other up

under

knowledge, equivalentto
our care

kind

of

sampling,so
some

that after all

in

stirring
them others
to

the wheat,

experiential grains will present operation more singular fact method,

our

selves in the firstsampling in the

often will be
must

than
sure

long run, by
sort

this very

get

discovered
of every

the inductive
of

which

avail itself
was

experience; and

which inference,

corrects only provisional,

itself at last.
under

Again, it has

been

that said,

induction will
as

that postulates and

like circumstances
at bottom

like events
the is
a same

happen,

that this

postulateis
causation.

the principleof universal

But

this in If that the pro is

blunder, or
where

bevue, due
the

to

of thinking exclusively ratio is either

i or o.

ductions
any under such

concluded

proposition were

postulated, it

would of

be

like circumstances

(the circumstances
events
occur a no

drawing
same

different samples) different

in the

portions in
false and
even

all the

different But

sets,

"

proposition which
such

absurd.

in truth of

thing is postu reducing

the experiential character lated, the condition

not

the if
a

inference
certain

of

that to this, validity

result does

occur,

the opposite result will be manifested,a condition

the inference. that But it may instance
a

assured

of by the provisionality whether

it is not

be asked
of
a

conceivable
to

every
as

certain class destined should

have
one

be

ever

employed

datum

of induction

while character,

every

instance

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

187
the the

destined
character.

not

to

be

so

employed
is that

should in that

have case,

opposite
instances
not

The from in

answer

excluded

being subjects of reasoning

the full
sense

would

be be

experienced
among
not

of

the

word, but
our

would

these

latent individuals
to

of which

conclusion

does

pretend
To

speak.
of the rationale mention: which
to

this account
one

of induction it is that this mode my

I know

of

but

objectionworth
the full

I thus

fail to

deduce in how had would

upon

degree of force
that

of inference
no

fact

possesses; and

according
the of

view,

matter process

thorough

elaborate

and stirring
a

mixing

been,
not

the

examination
me

single handful
sufficient to
not

of

grain

give
the value

any

assurance, would

risk money the

that

next

handful

greatly modify

concluded the
assurance

of the be

ratio under very

true

inquiry,while, in fact,
that of this ratio
was

would
error.

high
ratio

not

greatly in
were

If the

grains of qualityA
a

0.80 such
to

and

the

handful
out

contained
ten

thousand
contain

grains,
from

nine

handfuls

of every

would
answer

780

820

grains of qualityA. given is

and of the
one

The when
we

to this is that

the calculation of this handful mal has

correct

know

that the units have the the

nor

quality inquired into another,if

the character of the

independence
been

for instance

stirring
been

complete

and

sampled

for has

settled But in

upon
so

in advance
as

examination
are

of the known
to

sample.
be
com

far

these

conditions
cease figures

not

plied with, the above

dom

to be

applicable.Ran
character

sampling

and

predesignationof the
be striven be

sampled
reasoning,

for should but when

always they
cannot

after in inductive

so long as attained,

it is conducted

88

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

honestly,the
not

inference how the

retains

some

value. been done the

When
or

we

can

ascertain

sampling

has

the

sample-

character

induction selected,

still has

essential

validity

which
I do

my
not

present
think with
a

account
a man

of it shows who of combines

it to have.
a

willingnessto be
argument
which have upon been

convinced
a

power

appreciating an
reasons

difficult
to

subject can
that
as

resist the

given
not

show

the

principleof
a

universal

necessitycan
But then
to

be defended

being

postulateof reasoning.
arises whether it is not

the be

question immediately
true, or
at

proved
observa

least

rendered

highly probable,by

tion of nature. this question ought Still, accustomed For

to
essence

not

long

to

arrest

person

reflect upon

the

force

of scientific

reasoning.
certain how

the

of the necessitarian certain the value To

positionis
exact

that

continuous
can a

have quantities determine

values.
a

Now,

observation

of such
one

quantity with
is behind the

probable error
and knows

absolutelynil?
that the
most

who

scenes, masses, other

refined

comparisons of

lengths,and
measurements,
that

angles, far surpassing in precisionall

yet fall behind
the
as on

the accuracy

of bankof

accounts, and

ordinary determinations
from with
an

physi
in the

cal constants, such

are journals,

appear
a

month

to

month

about

par

measure upholsterer's

ments

of

carpets and

curtains, the
in the is
a

idea

of

mathematical
appear of
"

exactitude

being

demonstrated There

laboratory will

simply mating
method

ridiculous. the of

recognized method
errors

esti the that

probable magnitudes of
least makes squares. the
errors

in

physics,

It is

universally admitted
than

this method

smaller

they reallyare;

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

189

yet
is

even

according to that theory an

so

error

small indefinitely
statement
a

indefinitely improbable;
a

that

any

to

the

effect that

certain continuous
at

quantityhas
be founded

certain exact
on

value, if well-founded
other than
am

must all,

something

observation.

I Still, certain

obligedto

admit

that this rule is

subjectto

a
2

qualification. Namely,
certain
one or

it only appliesto continuous

quantity. Now,
discontinuous the rule must
not

kinds
at two

of continuous
and limits,

quantity
for such
a

are

at

limits
can

be modified.
zero. a

Thus,

the

lengthof

line

be

less than
a

Suppose, then, the question arises

person If and
no

how

long
a

line

certain paper. zero;

had

drawn

from
can

marked

point on
observed vation smallest But

piece of

line at all

be seen, the this obser the

lengthis
warrants

the

only conclusion

is that the

length of
the for

the line is less than

length visible

with
"

optical power example, that

was never

employed.
the person

indirect
to

observations,
have paper,
so
"

supposed
feet of
at all was
zero.

drawn may;

the

line
it

within
that be
no

fifty
line

the

make

probable

made,

that the concluded

length will
doubt would

strictly
warrant
a

In

like manner, that and

experience no
is

the conclusion
ear

there

no absolutely

indigo in
in
a

given

of

wheat,

absolutelyno
can

attar

given lichen.
valid

But tive
upon

such

inferences

only

be
or

rendered

by posi
rest

experiential evidence, direct

a

remote, and

cannot

mere
reason we

to inability
to

detect there

the quantity in question.

is
no

We

have

think

indigo

in the

wheat,
is pro-

because

have

remarked

that

wherever

indigo
to

Continuous

is not

exactly the right word,

but

I let it go

avoid

long and

irrelevant discussion.

9o

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

duced

it is
one

produced

in considerable

to quantities,
to

mention
is be
no

only
attar

argument.
the

We

have

reason

think
seem

there
to

in

lichen,because

essential

oils

in

to singlespecies. generalpeculiar

If the
or

question had
the

been

whether

there

was

iron

in the

wheat

lichen,though
we

chemical should
almost way
or

analysis should
think
some

fail to

detect
was

its presence, iron

of it

probably
any

there, since

is

everywhere.
the
we other,

Without

such

information, one
any

could only abstain substance that

we

from

opinion as

to the

presence

of the

in
are

question.
in any

It cannot, I

conceive,be maintained
than
or

better

position

this in

regard

to

the presence
law

of the element
in nature.

of chance

spontaneous
Those

departures from
which
are

observations

adduced generally
prove that
no

in favor
is
an

of mechanical
ment
ever

causation

simply

there

ele

of upon

in nature, regularity

and

have such

bearing

what
exact

the

questionof
not.

whether
in

regularityis
this

and

or universal,

Nay,

regard to
to

exactitude,all
that be
can ex

observation
be said

is

opposed directly
a

it; and

the most
can

is that away.

good deal
to

of this observation law

plained

Try
the
more

verify any preciseyour

of nature, and

you
more

will find that

the observations, from I do

certain they will be

law. say We
are

to

show
to

irregulardepartures
ascribe

the
not

accustomed
errors errors

these, and
we

wrongly,to

of

observation;yet
in any far

cannot

usually

account

for such their

causes are

antecedently probable way.

and you will be

Trace
to
or

back

enough,
due
to

forced

admit chance. But

they

always

arbitrary determination,

it may

be

asked

whether

if there

were

an

element

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

191

of real chance

in the

universe effects
to

it must such
as

not

occasionallybe
not

productive
observed.

of In

signal
answer

could

pass

un

this

question,without

stopping

to

point out
one

that be

there

is

an

abundance
were

of great events

which

might

tempted
remark

to suppose

of that nature, it will that the

be of

simplest to
gases
are

that about

hold physicists

particles
if

moving
and

as irregularly, substantially

by real chance,
there
must

that

by

the

principlesof probabilities
of heat

occasionally happen
contrary

to be concentrations

in the gases

to the second

law

of

thermodynamics,

and
must

these

concentrations, occurring in explosivemixtures,

have
tremendous

sometimes

effects.

Here, then,
no

is

in substance
ever

the very

situation
we

supposed; yet
forced which

phenomena
to such

have

resulted which
of

are

to attribute

chance

concentration
ever

heat, or
of

anybody,
for in that
not

wise
manner.

or

has foolish,
In view

dreamed

accounting

of all these
not

I do considerations, of case-hardened maintain

to

believe that

anybody, ing
the

in

state

ignorance respect
that is the

logicof science,can
conformity
of

precise and
or

universal
even

facts

law

clearlyproved,
any

rendered made.

probable,by particularly
In this way,
soon

observations

hitherto
exact
reasons

the

determined driven received

advocate
to
a a

of

regularitywill
to

find

himself These

priori
soc-

support
Stuart
to

his thesis. Mill

now

such of

dolager from
that

in his Examination
seems

Hamilton,
a

holding
of

them

to

me so

to

denote I

high

degree
them To tion

imperviousness
little notice.
we

to

reason;

that

shall pass

by
say is
no

with
that

cannot

help believing a given proposi

it is
a

argument,

but

conclusive

fact

if it be

92

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

true;
true

and in the

with mouths

the

substitution of several

of

"I" of

for

"we,"
the

it is

classes

minds,
and

blindly
per But turned is

passionate, the
son

and unreflecting evidence

ignorant,
before

the

who which

has

overwhelming
been

his eyes.

that
out

has

inconceivable the
morrow.

to-day

has

often

indisputable on
a

to Inability
man

conceive
in

only
to a

stage through which

of and

every

must

pass

regard

number

beliefs,
"

unless His

endowed

with

extraordinary
enslaved is

obstinacy
to
sure some soon

obtuseness.

understanding is
a

blind
to

compulsion which
cast

vigorous

mind

pretty

off. up the
a

Some

seek

to back

prioripositionwith empirical
of regularity beliefs have is
some

arguments.
is
a

They

say

that the exact that natural

the world

natural

and belief,

generally
reason

been this.

confirmed Natural of

by experience.
beliefs, however,

There if

in
a

they generally have

and

foundation from natural

also require correction truth, illusions. The of principles all

purification
are un

mechanics

doubtedly
lations

natural

beliefs; but, for

were

that,the early formu

The

of them
to

exceedingly erroneous.
in natural of beliefs

general
case

approximation
of the

truth

is,in fact,a
to

general adaptation
or

genetic products
the
as

recogniz
of
are

able

utilities and

ends.

Now,

adaptations

nature,
never

beautiful found
to

often

marvelous

they verilyare,
the any

be

quite perfect; so
absolute of the exactitude

that of

argument
natural

is

quite

against

the

in belief,

cluding that
Another absolute
rent

principleof
or

causation.

argument,
chance

convenient

commonplace,
word has

is that

is inconceivable.

(This

eight cur

significations.The

Century

Dictionary

enumerates

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

193

six.)
to

Those in what

who

talk

like

this will
mean

hardly
chance

be

persuaded

say

sense

they
do

that

is inconceiv shown
statement not

able. that

Should

they
no

so, it would
reason

easily be
for which the

either
or

they

have

sufficient
of

that the

is inconceivability is non-existent.
a

kind

does

prove

that chance

Another

prioriargument
it may of

is that chance

is

unintelligible;
does

that is to say, while

not

perhaps
reason

be

conceivable,it
or

disclose since
a

to

the eye

the how be

why

of

things;
as

and

hypothesis can
phenomenon

only

so justified never

far
can

it

renders
any

some

we intelligible,

have the

right

to

suppose

absolute
in nature. with
two

chance

to

enter

into may

productionof anything
considered of in connection far
as

This
others.

argument

be

Namely,

instead
can

going so

to

say used

that the
to

of supposition any
are

chance

never

properly
be

be

explain
no

observed
known in

fact, it
such

may
a

allegedmerely
in

that any

facts way

which

supposition could

help

explaining. Or
it may

being again, the allegation

said that since

still further from

vera

weakened,
are

be

departures
is not
a

law

not

unmistakably ought
not
un

observed, chance necessarilyto

These the
matter
are a me no

causa,
a

and

be

introduced

into

hypothesis. require us
my It
to

mean

arguments, and

examine

little more
learn from

closely. Come,
your
a

superior op
seems

ponent, let
that every

wisdom.

to

me

throw

of sixes with

pair of dice

is

manifest

instance

of chance. you

"While

would

hold

a
"

throw

of

deuce-ace

to

be

brought about
remarks
are

by necessity?
in

(The opponent'ssupposed

placed

quotationmarks.)

194

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

Clearlyone
"

throw think

is

as

much

chance
are

as

another.
different nature

Do

you

throws
"

of dice

of

from I
ness
"

other
see

events?

that I must

say

that all the

and specificaldiversity

of events Would you,

"

is attributable to

chance. is any in regularity

then, deny

that there

the world? That is

an

is

undeniable. clearly

I must that

acknowledge
every
event

there
is in

and approximate regularity,

fluenced

by

it.

But

the

and diversification, specificalness, suppose is chance. A throw of

of things I irregularity sixes appears

to
me a

case

in which

this element

is par

obtrusive. ticularly
"

If you is you

reflect

more

deeply,you
for
we a cause no

will

come

to

see

that

chance
Do

only a
mean

name

that is unknown idea whatever of sixes? under the

to us."

that

have
a

what

kind

of

causes
"

could

bring about
laws."

throw
moves

On

the contrary, each

die

influence

of

precisemechanical
But it appears up
to me

that it is not these laws

these laws which

act

made
when

the die turn

other

sixes;for
up.

justthe

same

throws
and

come

The

chance

lies in the
to

of diversity which
are

throws;

this

cannot diversity

be due

laws

immutable.
"

The

is diversity the laws

act.

due

to the

diverse circumstances
in differently These
to

under

which and

The

dice lie

the
are

box,
the

the motion
causes name

givento
which of

the box

is different. the

unknown
we

produce
not

throws, and

which which
are

give the

chance;

the mechanical
causes.

law
see

regulatesthe operation of
to already beginning

these
more

You

you

think

about clearly

this

subject."

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

195

Does

the

operationof

mechanical

law

not

increase

the

diversity?
"

Properly not.
of
a

You

must

know

that

the

instantaneous
as

state

is defined by six times system of particles

as

many

numbers
of

there

are

three particles, three number

for the
more

co-ordinates for the

com

each

and position, particle's of its

ponents
expresses the kind
same

velocity.
of

This

of the

numbers,
system,

which

the amount
at

in diversity There the may

remains
some

all times.

be,

to

be
and

sure,

of

relation between
different

co-ordinates
means a

component
of which the

velocities of the
state

by particles,

of the system might be

expressedby
a

smaller

number

of numbers.

But, if this

is the case,

correspond precisely
the co-ordinates
and

ing relationshipmust
component
doubtless trinsic

exist between
any other

velocities at be
a

time, though
to
us. same

it may the in

relation of the

less obvious

Thus,
at
now

complexity

system is the
we

all times." reached

an

Very well,my
issue. universe there
was

obliging opponent,
all the in

have

You
were a

think

of arbitrary specifications
one

the

introduced

dose, in the beginning,if

the

and beginning, has

that

varietyand
as

complica
it is
now.

tion of nature But

always been

just as much

I, for

my

part, think
been
to

that the

the speci diversification, Should you my

has fication,

continually taking place.

me

condescend
reasons
as

ask

why

so

think, I

should

give

follows: science life of

at

(i) Question any

time.
or

which
an

deals with the

animal

course

of

Consider
a

the

individual

or

plant,
insti

of

mind.

Glance

the

history of states,
Examine

of

of language,of ideas. tutions,

the successions

of

196
forms
set

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

shown in

by paleontology,the history of geology,

of what the the
astronomer

the

globe

as

forth
out

is able

to

make

concerning
the main and

changes
is

of and

stellar

systems.

Everywhere

fact

growth
mere

com increasing or secon

plexity. Death

corruption are Among

some

accidents lower there

at

dary phenomena.
is
a

of the

organisms, it
be

moot

point
to

with

whether biologists death.

anything
not

which die these

ought
out

be called
under

Races,

any

rate, do

except
and

unfavorable
facts
we

circumstances. may there

From

broad

ubiquitous

fairlyinfer,by
is

the

most
some

that unexceptionable logic, agency

can

probably

in

nature

by

which

the

complexity and
that in

diversity
the

of

things
of

be

increased; and

consequently
some

rule

mechanical

necessity

meets

way

with

interference.

(2) By
acter

thus

admitting pure spontaneityor

and

life

as

char

of the

universe,acting always
within
narrow

everywhere though law, producing

great
in

restrained finitesimal with

bounds law

by

departures from

and continually, for all the

ones

infinite in frequency, I account the

variety and
which the for. multi its
me

of diversity

universe, in
new can

the be

only
said

sense

in

reallysui generis and

The

to

be

accounted

ordinary

view

has

to

admit

the
has
to

inexhaustible

tudinous chanical

variety of
law
cannot

the

world,

admit
in

that

account

for

this

the

least,that
yet denies

variety can
without
any

spring only
evidence
or

from
reason

and spontaneity, the

to the

existence

of this spon
time my and

else shoves or taneity,

supposes appears it dead
to me not
ever

it back

beginning of

since.

The

of logic superior

view

controverted. easily

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

197

(3)
the
me

When

I ask

the necessitarian

how

he would

explain repliesto

and diversity
out

of irregularity

the universe,he
that

of

the treasury of his wisdom

from

is irregularity
we

something which
seek
to

the

nature at

of

things
to

must

not
con

explain. Abashed by asking how

he

this,I

seek

cover

my

fusion

would

explain the uniformityand

he

of the universe,whereupon regularity laws of

nature
are

tells me

that

the
no

immutable

and

ultimate
But my
a

and facts,

account

is to

be

given

of

them.

hypothesis
certain

of

spontaneity does
that

in explain irregularity, fact of

event

sense;

is,it explains the general

what thus each

though irregularity,
is to of

not, of course,
same room as

lawless

be.

At

the

time, by
for the
seems

the loosening of another

bond
kind

it gives necessity, of such causation,

influence

to

be operative in the mind enables

could be
us

in the

formation
how

of uni

and associations,

to

understand

the

formity

of

nature

have hard

been
and do

brought about.

That

single events permit

shock and does without
a

should

logicwill unintelligible,
not

we difficulty:

expect

to

make

the

of

personallyexperiencedearthquake

appear

natural

reasonable

by

any

amount

of

cogitation.

But To

logic
say

expect things general to be

is
a

understandable.
that it is
a

that there

universal

law, and
and
a

hard,ultimate,
of

fact, the why unintelligible

never

wherefore
sound

which

can

be

inquired into, at this

over

logic will revolt;

of of

and which

will pass does

not

at

once

to

method
road

philosophizing discovery.
short of mak

thus

barricade
cannot

the

(4) Necessitarianism ing

the whole action notion of

logically stop
mind
a

the
we

part of the
what
we are

physical going
to

universe.

Our

that

decide

I98

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

do, if

as

the necessitarian

says, it has
to

been

calculable

since

the earliest
ness

times, is reduced
thus

illusion.
a mere

Indeed, conscious
of
are a

in

general
system.

becomes
we

illusory aspect
and The

material in

What

call

red, green,

violet
sole and

reality only different

rates

of vibration.
matter

reality
time. of

is the distribution of Brain-matter is

"

of qualities
a

in space

protoplasm in
a

certain

degree

and

kind

complication,^
ticles. Its

certain

arrangement
an

of mechanical

par

feeling is but
and positions the

inward

aspect,

phantom.
any

For, from
one

the

velocities of the the

at particles

instant,and positionsat
of

knowledge of
times and
are

immutable

forces,
that the

the

all other

calculable;so
is But
reason are a

universe

space, with

time,
from

matter

rounded the

system
state

uninterfered

elsewhere.
is
no

from
to

of the

feelingat
states

any

instant,there

suppose

of feelingat all other

that

instants I

thus
mere

exactlycal fragmentary
then,

culable; so
and

is,as feeling

said, a
This

illusive aspect of the universe.

has
to make

is the way,

that necessitarianism consciousness its trifle; under

up its accounts. of

It enters
a

the

head

sundries,as
be
out
more

forgotten

scheme

of the universe

would

satisfactory
the

if this little fact other

to

could

be

dropped

of

sight. On

hand, by supposing the rigid exactitude

care

of causation

yield,I

not

how
"

little,
"

be

it but
to

by

strictly
into

infinitesimal amount,
our

we

gain

room

insert

mind

scheme,
the

and

to

put it into the place where

as

it is

needed,

into

position which,
to

the

sole

thing, self-intelligible
fountain of

it is entitled and in
so

occupy,
we

that the

of the

existence;
of

doing body.

resolve

problem

of the connection

soul and

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

199

(5)
and

But

I must

leave

undeveloped
it. The

the chief of my

reasons,

can

only

adumbrate whose
out

hypothesis

of
are

chance-

is one spontaneity of

inevitable consequences
mathematical of this I have with

capable
con

being traced
detail.
to
to

with

precision into
done facts the have and
to
an

siderable

Much
agree
me

find

the

consequences

observed
But

extent

which
methods

seems

remarkable.
are

matter
no

and

of

reasoning

novel, and

right to
deductions
reason

promise
as

that other

mathematicians
I

shall find my
that the

as satisfactory

myself do, so

strongest
a

for my of my

belief must
own,

for the present remain

cannot

privatereason
I mention
to

and
own

influence

others.

it to future time my

explain my
mathematical and

position;and
a speculators

partly to indicate

veritable

goldmine,should
all

circumstances

and

the

abridgerof

joys prevent

opening
If he
now

it to the world.

I, in

my

turn, inquire of the necessitarian

that all

why
to

prefers to

suppose

specification goes
answer me

back
one

the

beginning of things,he
last three he First,

will

with

of

those

arguments
may say

which that

I left unanswered. chance

is
we

thing absolutely un
can

and, therefore,that intelligible,

to

never

be
this

entitled

make

such

supposition. impudence?

But

does

not

objection
own

smack

of nai've

It is not

mine,

it is his
to

conception of

the universe

which

leads abruptly up

hard,
and

immutable ultimate,inexplicable,
to

law, on

the

one

hand,

and inexplicable specification

on

diversification of circum
on

stances

the other.
at

My

view,
it be in
some

the contrary, say

hypothethat
to

tises

nothing

all,unless
about

hypothesis to
sense,

all
be

came specification

and

is not

200

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

accepted

as

unaccountable.

To

undertake
it is due
not
a

to

account

for

anything by saying boldly that indeed, be

chance futile. But make form

to

chance
I make

would,
use

this I do
room

do.

of

to chiefly

for

of generaliza principle I hold has

or tion, tendency to

which habits, mechanical world bad

as

produced
the

all

regularities. The

philosopher leaves utterlyunaccounted

to

whole
which chance.
to

of the specification is pretty

for,
it to

nearly

as

boldly attribute

I attribute it in the form It

seems

altogetherto chance,
of
a

it is true, but

chance

spontaneitywhich
me

is to
rate

some one

degree regular.
of these
must

to

clear

at

any else

that

two

positionsmust
due
to a

be

taken, or

specification

be

supposed
and

spontaneitywhich
way,

develops itself objectivelogic

an

in

certain

not

in

chance last way

by

an as

like that of for bility, necessitarian

Hegel.
the

This

I leave
as as

open

possi
to

present;
scheme

for it is

much my

opposed
own

the is.

of existence may

theory

Secondly, the
no

necessitarian

say there the

are, at any of

rate,

observed aid in of
to

phenomena explaining. growth and

and universal,

which In

hypothesis

chance

could
nomenon

I point first reply,

to the

phe
ap

developing complexity,which
which

pears
an

be

though

it may

possibly be
all the is

affair of mechanism of

perhaps, certainlypresents Then,

appearance

increasing diversification.
the
most
can

there char

beyond comparison variety itself,

acter

obtrusive
account
most

of the universe: is the very

no

mechanism fact the

for this. insists

serves are

Then, there
upon,

necessitarian which

the
to

regularityof
the road

the of

universe

for him there

"

only

block

inquiry. Then,
the laws of

the simi-

between regular relationships

nature,

DOCTRINE

OF

NECESSITY

EXAMINED

201

larities and

comparative characters,which
its and cousins, call upon
us

appeal
for
a

to

our

as intelligence

reason.

there Finally, but

a

is

a patent consciousness, feeling, one

fact

enough,

very

inconvenient

to

the mechanical say that

philosopher.
is not
a

Thirdly, the
vera

necessitarian
we

may

chance

causa,

that

cannot

know
But with
once

there positively
the doctrine

is any
vera

such
causa

element has
to

in the universe.

of the

nothing
that
a

to

do

elementary conceptions.
cuts

Pushed existence tarianism

extreme,

it at

off belief in the that necessi

of

material

universe; and
maintain be its

without

could
a

hardly

ground.
and

Besides, va
the

riety is
chance
not

fact which consists

must

admitted;

theory

of

merely

in

supposing Moreover,
nowhere of

this diversification the avoidance of

does

antedate

all time.

hy
act

causes potheses involving

known positively
not logic,
a

to

"

is

only

recommendation

positivecom
with
as

mand.
out

It cannot
once

be formulated

in any

precise terms
"

at

betrayingits
as a

untenable

character,
it is wholesome
to
to

mean

rigidrule,for
I believe the

recommendation thus

enough.
all uni

I have
reasons

subjected
for

fair examination the

important

adhering
shown any

theory

of

versal

and necessity, may

have

their flaw

nullity. I earnestly
in my

beg

that whoever
out to me,

detect

reasoning will
if I
am

point it
wrong, my

either

for privatelyor publicly;

me

it much

concerns

to

be

set

right speedily.

If

argument
the

remains

unrefuted, it will be time, I think, to

of the of principle obtained
a am

doubt
and any

absolute
once

truth
a

universal

law;
in

when man's

such
my

doubt
cause

has with

livingroot

mind,

him,

persuaded, is

gained.

III.

THE

LAW

OF

MIND1

IN

an

article

published
to

in what

The

Monist

for
to

January,
form the

1891,
warp

I endeavored of that
a

show

ideas and the

ought

system
of

of

philosophy,
chance. in favor
to

particularly
number
way of of

emphasized
I it

absolute
further convenient student

In of

April, 1892,

argued
will be A

that

thinking, which
rux^7,
in
see
no

christen of

tychism

(from
be will

chance).
haste it
one

serious
or

philosophy
doctrine; but

will he

to

accept
the

reject

this

in

of

chief

attitudes it is not upon

a a

which for
an

speculative thought
individual,
nor

may
an

take,
age,
to

feeling
pronounce That is

that

for of

fundamental
a

question
to

philosophy.
I have

task that in

for

whole

era

work birth

out. to
an

begun

by showing

tychism
all
as

must

give

evolutionary
and of

cosmology,
mind
are

which

the

regularities of
of

nature to
mere a

regarded
idealism

products
holds
mind. curious reared in

growth,
to

and

Schellingspecialized

fashioned
and

which

matter

be

partially deadened
those I
was

I may

mention,
mental

for the

bene

fit of that I

who born in

are

studying

biographies,
of

and

in the
at

neighborhood
the time when

Concord,

"

mean

Cambridge,
friends

"

Emerson,
ideas that

Hedge, they
from the had

and

their

were

disseminating
Schelling
what East.

the from

caught
or

from from

Schelling, and
God of knows the

Plotinus.
with

Boehm,
monstrous

minds
But

stricken

mysticism
July,
1892.

the

atmosphere

The

Monist,

202

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

203

of

Cambridge

held

many I
am

an

antisepticagainst Concord
not

transcendentalism;and
tracted
some was

conscious

of is

having

con

any

of that virus.
some bacilli,

Nevertheless,it benignant
form and

probable
the now,

that

cultured

of that

disease
after mathe

implanted in

my

soul,unawares,
to the

long incubation, it comes

matical tions. The amine
next

modified surface,

by

conceptions and

by trainingin physicalinvestiga

step in the study of cosmology must

be to

ex

the

general law
drop

of mental my

action.
out

In

doing this,I
order
con

shall for the time allow

a

tychism

of

view, in
to

to

free

and

independent expansion
my first Monist

another
as was one

ception signalizedin
most

paper it

of

the

to philosophy, though indispensable

not

there

dwelt
to
as

upon;

mean

the idea the

of

continuity.
in which in The

The

tendency it,

in regard continuity,
an

sense

I shall define
con

idea

of

prime importance

philosophy may
present paper
what

be veniently
tended
to.

termed show
a

synechism.
what

is in
it leads this

to chiefly

and synechism is, many years ago,

to

attempted,

good

develop

doctrine in the Journal but I

I
was am a

of SpeculativePhilosophy (Vol.II.) ; improve

upon that in exposition, which

able

now

to

little blinded

by nominalistic
may

prepossessions.I
that
some are

refer

to

it,because

students

possiblyfind
in the

points not
cleared
up

explained sufficiently
in those earlier
ones.

present paper

WHAT

THE

LAW

IS

Logicalanalysisapplied to
there is but
one

mental

phenomena
that

shows
tend

that
to

law

of

mind, namely,

ideas

204

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

spread continuously
to

and

to affect certain

others

which

stand this of with

them

in

peculiar
lose

relation

of

In affectibility. power

spreading they

and intensity,

especiallythe
become

but gain generality and affecting others, other ideas. this formula
to at the

welded

I set down and

now

for beginning, it.

convenience

proceed

comment

upon

INDIVIDUALITY

OF

IDEAS

We

are

accustomed
mind in
to

to

speak
as

of ideas similar
were or

as

reproduced,as
to
one

passed

from

mind,

dissimilar

another, and,
nor can

short, as

if

they

substantial raised
to

things;
expres of
an an

any But in
an

reasonable

objection be
word
"

such
sense

sions.
event
once

taking

the

idea

"

in

the

individual

it is consciousness, any ideas

clear that
recurrence

idea of

past is gone
idea. of

forever,and
These
two

supposed
are

it is another
same

not

present in the
cannot
are

state

consciousness,and
To
an

therefore

possibly
similar
can

be

compared.
mean us no

say,

that they therefore, from

our

only

that
to
more.

occult power
them may in

the

depths

of the soul

forces both
two

connect

thoughts

after

they

are

We

note, here, in passing, that of the

of association, contiguity recognized principles generally the similarity, latter

can

and

former
a

is

connection due that

to
a

due power

to

power

without, the
But what

connection
to

within.
are

it

mean

say

ideas
are

wholly past utterlyunknow

to

thought
able. idea from

of at

all, any
distinct

longer? meaning
way
can

They

What in the which

attach
an

saying
in the

that

an

past in any
it is

affects

idea A

future,
between

completely detached?

phrase

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

205

the assertion and be any

the

denial

of which
mere

there

can

in

no

case

sensible difference is dwell

further

gibberish.
this

I will not

upon

point,because

it is

commonplace of philosophy.
CONTINUITY OF IDEAS

We
to the

have

here before

us

question of difficulty, analogous

and realism. But
room

question of
been

nominalism

when

once one

it has
answer
.

clearlyformulated, logic leaves

How
can a

for
Can

only.

past idea
a

be

present?

it

be present vicariously? To
not

certain

extent, perhaps; but

arise how

merely

so;

for then

the question would

to

the

past idea
The

can

be

related

its vicarious

representation.
exist in
some

relation, being between

now

ideas,can
was

only
in
no

consciousness: but
that that did

that

past idea
that

consciousness

past consciousness
not

alone
idea.

contained

it; and

embrace

the

vicarious
to

Some

minds in

will here
any
sense

jump
be

the conclusion But

that is

past

idea
and

cannot

present.

that

hasty
our

How illogical.

extravagant,
be
as a

too, to
mere

pronounce Yet

whole
would

knowledge
seem

of the past to the

delusion!

it

that

past

is

completely beyond
Kantian Not

the

bounds
How

of
can

possibleexperience as
a

thing-in-itself.

past idea be present?

vicariously.Then,
be be

only by
it must
,

direct be
can

perception.

In

other That

words, to
it is,
cannot

present,

ipso facto present.

wholly

past; it
than
the any

only be going, infinitesimally past, less past

date. We
are

assignable past
that the

thus

brought
the

to

conclusion
r

present is connected

with

past

by

series of real infinitesimal steps.

206

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

It has

already been

that suggestedby psychologists

an

con

sciousness
if
a

embraces necessarily be meant, the

the me,

interval
not

of

time.

But If the
were

finite time
that

opinion is

tenable.
a same

sensation

precedes

present by half

second

still immediately before

the sensation and year,
so on

then,

on

the

principle

preceding that would infinitum. Now,

of which that
an

be

immediately present,
there
no

ad

since idea

is

time, say

at

the end

is

longer ipso facto

finite

present, it follows
however But of

this is true

of any

interval,

short.

yet consciousness
for if it did
not

must
we

cover essentially

an

interval

time;

not,
no

could

gain

no

knowledge

of
no

time, and

merely

veracious

cognition of it,but therefore, forced through

an

conception
that
we are

whatever.

We

are,

to

say

immediately conscious

infinitesimal

interval of time.
This is all that is

requisite. For,

in

this infinitesimal
in
or a

not interval,

only
that

is consciousness
as

continuous
a

subjec

tive sense,

is, considered
of

subject

substance
it is

having the attribute

immediate In

duration;

but

also,because

its object is ipso facto continuous. consciousness, consciousness

out.

spread-out fact,this infinitesimally feelingof

elucidated its contents
as

is

direct further

spread

This

will be
we

below.
the
"

In

an

infinitesimal of

interval

directlyperceive middle,
and

temporal

sequence in the

its

beginning,
of

end,

not, of course,
the

way

recogni
way of

is only of tion,for recognition

past, but

in the

immediate
whose middle

feeling.

Now

upon

this interval of the

follows and

another,
whose
an

beginning
is the end

is the of

middle former.

former,
we

the

Here,

have

im-

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

207

mediate

perceptionof

the
or

temporal
say of
two

sequence

of its

begin

ning, middle, and

fourth
we

end,
From

the

second, third,and
perceptions,

instants.
a

these

immediate

gain

mediate, or inferential, perceptionof the relation

This mediate

of all four instants.

or as

perception is objectively,
over

to

the object

spread represented,
as

the

four

in

or stants; but subjectively,

itself the subject of duration, the

second
moment.

it is reader

completely embraced
will observe that
moment

in I
use

(The
to
mean a

the word
mean an

instant

point of time, and

tion.)
we

to

infinitesimal dura

If it is have
more

objected that, upon

than
a

the

theory proposed,
the
succes

must

mediate

of perception the
sum

sion of the four infinitesimal

I grant it; for instants, is itself It is

of the two that it is the

intervals

so infinitesimal,

immediately perceived.
whole thirds

immediately perceivedin

but only mediatelyperceived in interval, of the

the last twoan

interval.

Now,

let there
acts

be

indefinite
percep ob
an

succession

of these it is

inferential

of

comparative

tion; and

plain that

the last moment Let there

will contain

the jectively indefinite

whole

series.
a

be,

not

merely
of

succession,but
a

continuous

flow
a

inference
ob

through

finite time; and

the

result will be time series

mediate

jectiveconsciousness
In
or

of the whole the whole

in the last moment. will be the

this last moment, known of

as course even

recognized,

known

before,except only

last moment, itself. the is

a

which

will be

unrecognizable to absolutely
will be
to

Indeed,
rest, or,

this last moment

recognized like
be
so.

at

be just beginning least,

appearance reflection of

There

little elenchus,or the

here, which contradiction,

to

ordinary logicof

quite suffices

resolve.

208

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

INFINITY

AND

CONTINUITY, who

IN

GENERAL

Most

of

the

mathematicians treated
an

during

the

last two have been

have generations of the

the differential calculus

opinion that

infinitesimal

quantityis an absurdity;
have often added
so

although,with
"

their habitual

caution,they
an

or, at

any

rate, the conception of

we

infinitesimal is
about

that difficult, confidence limits has say, to This

cannot practically

reason

it with of

and been

security." Accordingly, the

invented
to

doctrine
as some

evade

the

difficulty, or,
"

of explain the signification

one

the word

infinitesimal."
in all the

doctrine,in

form
some answers

or

another, is taught only

as an

though text-books,
view of the matter;

in it

of them well

alternative of

enough

the purposes has

calculation,though
difficulties.
The the that

even

in

that

it application

its

illumination

of the

subject by
shown
me

strict notation

for

logicof
the idea

relatives had
of
an

clearly and
no

evidently

infinitesimal with

involves the

contradiction,
Dr.

before I became
Cantor

acquainted

writings of

Georg
in the
not

(though many
Annalen

of these and

had

already appeared

Mathematische

in Borchardt's all mathematical the

same

Journal, if

yet in the Ada

the with The
ones

Mathematica,
which and

journals of
is defended

first

in distinction),

view

extraordinary genius prevalentopinion is

that of
we can reason as can

penetrating logic.
are

that finite numbers

at

the

only

about,
some

least,in
express about

any

ordinary
are

mode the

reasoning, or,
that

authors reasoned

it,they
mathemati I

only numbers
But this

be

cally.

is

an

irrational

prejudice.

long

ago

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

209

showed
ones

that finite collections

one

are

from distinguished its consequences, unusual

infinite

only by
to

circumstance

and

namely,
mode the
"

that

them

is

and a peculiar applicable

of

reasoning logism
of

called

by

its

discovererrDe

Morgan,

syl

transposed quantity."
of his Frenchman du mariaget Physiologic boasts
as more
a

Balzac, in the introduction

remarks duced seduced that
some

every

young

of

having se
only be
than
no

Frenchwoman. and there

are

Now,
no

woman

can

once, it

Frenchwomen
are

Frenchmen,
French
women

follows, if
escape holds.

these

boasts
If

true, that
number

seduction. But

their

be
con

the reasoning finite,

since the
are

population is
on

tinuallyincreasing,and
younger In like than the

the

seduced

the
not

average be
true.

seducers,the
De

conclusion
as an

need

manner, that if
an

Morgan,

actuary, might have

pays
to

argued
an

insurance than

company have But

its insured

on

average

more

they

ever

paid it, including

modern is

it interest, would
on see a

must

lose money.

every

actuary

fallacyin that,since
But
to

the business
or

continually

the increase.

should

war,

other

cause cataclysm,

the class of insured

turn

be

finite one,
all.

the conclusion The

would
reason

out

painfullycorrect, after examples

of the

above

two

ings are
The

syllogism of transposed quantity.

finite and infinite the

proposition that

collections
of the
as

are

to distinguished by the applicability

former

syl
the

logism
basal
If I must
"

of

transposed quantity ought

of scientific arithmetic.

to be

regarded

one a

person say

does
a

not

know

how

to

reason

and logically,

that

great many
"

good mathematicians, fairly

fall under this

yea,

distinguished ones,

category, but

210

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

simply

uses

rule of thumb that

in

blindly drawing inferences

turned
error

like other course, be The

inferences

have

out

of well,he will, infinite

at
num

into continuallyfalling truth who is such do reason,

about reason,

bers.

people

do

not

all.

But

for the few

reasoning about

infinite numbers

is easier than

about

finite numbers, because

is not

the complicated called

for. For
an

syllogismof transposed quantity

example, axiom,
be.
of
as

that that
a

the

whole

is greater than bad reasoner,

its part is not

eminently

Euclid, made
means

it to

It is

theorem

readily proved by
not

of Of

syllogism

transposed quantity,but

otherwise.

finite collec

tions it is true, of infinite collections false. of the whole

are

Thus,
Yet
an

part
even

numbers
no

are

even

numbers.

the

numbers

fewer

than

all the

numbers;
in the

evident series of

proposition since
whole
even

if every

number

whole

numbers numbers.

be

doubled,the

result will be

the series of

1, 2, 3,

4,

5,
10,
a

6,

etc.

2, 4,

6, 8,
is

12, etc. distinct

even

So for every
there fact,
are are

number
as

there

number.
as

In there
are

many

distinct doubles
But the

of numbers

of distinct numbers.
even

doubles

of numbers

all

numbers. infinite collections there

are

In

of truth,

but

two

grades
as a

of magnitude, the endless and

finite collection
to applicability

the innumerable.
an

Just
one

is

from distinguished
a

infinite

by

the

it of

specialmode
as

of

reasoning,the syllo
in the paper

gism

of

transposed quantity, so,

to, a numerable
one

I showed is

last referred
an

collection

from distinguished it of
a

innumerable

by

the

to applicability

certain

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

211

mode

of

reasoning, the

Fermatian
"

inference,or,
mathematical

as

it is

sometimes As
an

improperly termed,

induction."
demonstration may

example

of this

reasoning, Euler's
for

of the binomial The may theorem be

theorem

integral powers
"

be given.

is that

(x + y)n, where
sum

is

whole

number,
of which from the

expanded

into the each

of

series of terms is derived of

x

the first is
next

xny" and

of the

others

preceding by diminishing the exponent

that exponent and and
at the
same

by

and

multiplyingby

time increas
that

ing the exponent

exponent.
certain
n
"

of y

by

dividingby
to proposition

increased
true true

Now,

suppose
"
=

this
,

be

for

exponent, +
i.

If
one

then
of the

it must
terms

also be
in the

for of

For

let

expansion
with

(x + y)" be
will following

written

A"y*.

Then,

this term

the two

be
P
x

Axpy"

"L"

p-l

q+l

P
" "

P-Z
x

"+2

g -Hi

g +
x

ig +

Now,
we

when

(x + y)* is multipliedby
x

y to

give (x -f y)*+1,
of

multiply first by
results. three
terms

and
we

then

by

y instead

by

and

add

the two above

When

multiplyby
the only
one

x, the

second
term

of the

will be

giving a

involv
term

ing xpy*+1and

the third will be the

we

only one

givinga

in

xp-iyv+z-and when
term term

multiplyby

y the first will be the

only

givinga
giving a

term

in in

and the second xpyq+1,

will be the

only
we

term

xp~lyq+z. Hence, adding like terms,

find that the coefficientof will be the three

sum sum

xpyq+1in the expansion of (x + y)u+l

of the above the
two

of the coefficients of the first two that the

terms, and
of the

will be coefficient of xp~1y*+2

last two
terms.

coefficients of the

Hence,
be

successive terms

in the

expansion of (x + y)"+1 will

212

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

h*]
-A*.

/" +

q +

a+i

A A-

/" +

^ +

f
? +
I

p ""
9+
2

P-I *

"+2

"y

0+1 It

is, thus,seen
if any
next

that the succession

of terms the

follows

the rule. also does

Thus the

integralpower
power.

follows But the

rule,so

higher

first power do
so.

obviously

follows the rule.

Such

Hence,

all powers

reasoning holds
of

good
in
a so

of

any

collection

of

objects
be
re

capable

being ranged
be numbered

series which that each For

a

though
member

it may of it

endless,can
ceives whole
a

definite integral number.

constitute such

instance, all

the

numbers all numbers rule

a

numerable

collection.
to

Again,
any

resultingfrom
with any

operating according
of may whole be
num

definite form

finite number For

bers
in
a

such

collection. Let F

they
of

arranged
First i,

series thus.
on

be the

symbol

operation.
on a

operate

i,

giving F (i). Next,

Then, operate
2,

second

giving F(I,I).

introduce

giving 3rd, F(2);

Next
use a

4th
vari

F(2,i); 5th, F(i,2); 6th, F(2,2).

able

third

giving 7th, F(I,I,I); 8th, F(2,i,i); 9th, F(i,2*i); F(i,i,2); i2th, F(2,i,2);
Next introduce and
new

loth, F(2,2,i); nth,

13

th,
on,

F(i,2,2); i4th, F(2,2,2). alternately introducingnew

in this way it is the

3, and

so

variables
every

figures;and
of

plain

that

arrangement
a

integral place
in

values

of

variables

will receive

numbered

the series.2
The class of endless
can

but

numerable

collections (so called

one

because they
2

be

so

ranged

that to each
same as a

corresponds
of

This

the proposition is substantially in

a

theorem

Cantor,

though

it is enunciated

much

more

general form.

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

213

distinct whole

number)
are

is very

large.

But

there

are

collections which

certainlyinnumerable.
to

Such

is the

collection of all numbers

are

which

endless has

series of decimals since recognized surd

or

capable of approximating. It
of Euclid and

been
are

the time

that certain numbers

are nor

incom

mensurable,
series of the

not

exactly expressible by
a

any

finite
is

decimals,

by

decimal. circulating

Such

ratio of the
we

circumference
is

of

circle to its diameter,

The 700 calculation of

which

know has

nearly 3.1415926.
carried
of
to
over

this number the The

been

without figures their sequence.

are

slightest appearance
demonstrations
are

in regularity many

that

this and

other numbers

incommensurable incommensurable

perfect.

That

the entire collection of has been

numbers I omit

is innumerable

clearly

proved by Cantor.
to
see

the demonstration; but it is easy

one

that

to

discriminate
use

from

some

other

would,

in

require the general,

Now if

of

an

endless

series of numbers.

they

cannot cannot

be be

exactlyexpressed and
ranged
are

discriminated,

clearlythey

in

linear series.

It is evident
an

that there time

as

as

many
are

points on
real

line

or

in all.

interval are,

of

there

of

numbers

in

These

innumerable therefore,

collections. Many
that those

mathe
on a

maticians surface
or

have
in
a

incautiouslyassumed
solid
are more

the points
on a

than

line.

But that

this has been

for every
set

refuted

by Cantor.

Indeed, it
there

is obvious is
a

of values

of coordinates

singledis
of the
co

tinct number. ordinates

a

the Suppose, for instance,

o

values
if
we

all lie between

and

i.

Then

compose first figure

number

by putting in

the first decimal

place the
the

of the first coordinate,in the second

of the first figure

214

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

second

coordinate, and
go
on

so

on, and

when

the first

figuresare

all dealt out

it is from

to

the

second

figures in
can

like manner, be
or

plain that
the

the values

of the coordinates
so

read tetrad
no

off of

number, resulting single

each
a

that

triad

numbers,
values Were
and the

having

innumerable

values, has
number. this infinite, of numbers

more

than

singleincommensurable
of dimensions of infinite sets

the number collection

would

fail;
each

having

innumerable
the

might, therefore,be variations,

innumerable
and collection,

greater than
be
a

simple

might
of such

called collec

endlesslyinfinite. The
tion could
so

singleindividuals

not, however, be designated,even

a

approximately,
it would if at all. of in

that this is indeed

magnitude concerning which

in the most
two

be

possibleto

reason are

only
but
when

general way,
of

Although
finite
upon of

there

grades

magnitudes
are

collections, yet
the

certain

conditions
are

imposed

order

in which

individuals
that
cause.

taken, distinctions Thus,

if unit
a

magnitude

arise from doubled

simply
into two

endless

series be

by separating each
also the

parts, the successive

first parts and order

as

second which
as

parts

being taken
are

in the

same

the units series

from

they
it is

derived, this double

in that In

endless
as

will,so long

taken series.

order, appear
manner

twice

as

largeas
of
two

the

original

like

the

product
of

innumerable

that is, the collections,

collection

pairs composed possible

of

of

one

individual

of

each, if

the order that

continuityis

to

be

maintained, is,by virtue

than We either
now

of

order, infinitely greater

of the
come

component
to

collections. is
con

the

difficult question. What

it with

tinuity?

Kant

confounds

infinite divisibility, saying

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

215

that

the essential character

any
an

of
a

continuous
third
can

series is that

between This is

two

members

of it

always be found.
but definite;
For
un ac ar

clear analysis beautifully down under

and

it breaks fortunately,

the

first test.

cording ranged

to

the this,

entire series of rational

fractions

in the order of their

magnitude, would
are

be

an

infinite

although the rational fractions series,

the from
tween

numerable, while
Nay,
worse

points of
that

line

are

innumerable.
two

yet, if
lie be

series of fractions any

and be excised, definition any

with

all that

them

number

of such of the

finite gaps

be made, it has

Kant's

is stilltrue of

series, though

lost all appearance

continuity.
series
as one

Cantor catenated such

a one

defines
and

continuous
a

which
he series, in

is

con

perfect. By
if any
two

concatenated

means

that

points are

given

it,and

any

however finite distance, the first point to the of the series each than tional the
at

to proceed small,it is possible

from

second
a

through
from

succession

of

points
less
ra

distance This in the

the

preceding one
series of

given

distance.

is true order
one so

of the
of their

fractions

ranged

magnitude.
every

By

perfect series, he
that there is
no

means

which

contains

point such
has
tance
o

distance the

small that this point

that dis

not

an

of points of infinity This is true of and

series within

of it.
i

of the series of numbers

between in which

and

capable
o digits

being expressed by decimals

i

only

the

occur.

It must

be

granted

that Cantor's
nor can

definition includes every

it be
case

series that
includes any

is

continuous; important
or

objected
of
a

that

it

indubitable
has
some

series not In

continuous.

Nevertheless,it

serious

defects.

216

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

the first the

place,it

turns

upon
a

metrical continuous

while considerations;
and
a

distinction

between

discontinuous

series is manifestly non-metrical.

fect series
a

In the next
"

place,a point

per
"

is defined

as

one

containing
no

every is

of of

certain

description. points are:

But

positiveidea
is definition
sort at

conveyed

what
cannot

all the be be

that If that
to

by negation,and
were

admitted. very easy

of

thing
that

allowed,
continuous

it would linear the

say,
one

once,

the

series of

points is

which

contains

every

point

of

line between
not

its extremities.
a

Finally, Cantor's
notion of what It the

defini compo

tion does
nents

convey

distinct

of the conception of continuity are.

up its

ingeniously
not

wraps

propertiesin
to
our

two

but does separate parcels,

display them
Kant's

intelligence.
expresses of gaps
one

definition but

simple property
series. how To these

of

con

tinuum;

it allows is
us a

in the
to

mend
gaps

the
can ex

it definition,
occur.

only

necessary

notice linear

Let from

suppose,

then, a
to
a

series of
a a

points
gap

tending
B
to
a

point, A,
and

point, B, having extending to

to
one

from

third let
us

point,C,
suppose

thence

final

limit,

D;

and

this series conforms

Kant's
or

defini
must

tion.

Then,

of the two from be the

points,B

and

C,

both

be excluded there would

series;for otherwise,by the definition,

them. all the That

points between

is,if
up
to

the series

contains
not

C, though it contains
B. What is

points

B, it can
to to

contain

is required,therefore,
a

state
a

in

non-metrical is included

terms

that

if

series of the limit

points up
is included. of have
a

limit

in

continuum

It may
to

be

remarked

that

this is the attention

property
to

continuum

which

Aristotle's

seems

been

directed

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

217

when have
as a

he

defines

continuum The

as

something
be

whose

parts

common

limit. If
a

property may
of

exactlystated
be

follows:
two

linear

series

points
if
an

is continuous

tween

points, A
the

and

D,

and

endless
A and
one

series of
D and

points be taken,
each then
that

first of them the last

between

and

of the others there is endless

a

between
of the

preceding
series such

D,
all

point

continuous

between that this

o

series of points and

of which this is true any

Z", and

every

other and
as

point
D.
For

lies between between and

i,
as so

point
and i,

example, take
number
o.n

number
o.i as

o.i;

then, any

between and the i,

o.n;

then

any
out tween

number end.
o

between

o.m; of
must

and

on, with

Then,
and
i

because is

series

real numbers be
a

be real

continuous, there
every may

least

number, greater

than

number

of that

endless

series.

This property, which

be called the

of the Aristotelicity
or

series,together completes
The
thus: endless
a

with

Kant's
a

property,
continuous

its

Kanticity,

the

definition of
of

series.
be

property
continuum series of

Aristotelicity may
the end which

roughly

stated
every

contains

point belonging to
An

points
every

it contains. contains

obvious But series both

corollaryis
in

that

continuum necessary

its limits. that

one a or

it is using this principle be continuous

to observe

may

that it omits except in this,

of the Our stead

limits.
ideas of will find upon

expressionmore
a

convenientlyif,in
of

points

line,we
one

speak
the

real numbers.
a

Every real number

for it
can

is^in

sense,

limit of Whether
may

series,
every be

be

approximated to. indefinitely

is
a

real number

limit of

regular series

perhaps

2i

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

open of

to

doubt.

But

the series referred be understood

not.
as

to

in the

definition
series that

must Aristotelicity

including all
it is

whether between
can

regularor
any
two

Consequently,
innumerable

implied

points an

series of

points

be taken.

Every number
a

whose of

in expression

decimals

but requires

finite number

places of

decimals

is commensurable.
an

Therefore, incommensurable place

Latin from of

numbers
word

suppose

infinitieth

decimals.
of

The

infinitesimal is
an

is

simply the
formed
con

form

that is,it infinitieth;

ordinal

infinitum,as

centesimal

from

centum.

Thus,
is

tinuitysupposes

infinitesimal
the idea

quantities.There
of such

nothing

contradictoryabout
and and

quantities. In adding
not

multiplyingthem

the

continuitymust preciselylike
the

be broken other

up,

consequently they
that the

are

any

quan

tities, except quantity, nor

If A certain this is is
a

neither

syllogism of

transposed
them. in
a

Fermatian

inference i A
an

applies to

finite quantity and

we

then infinitesimal, i
=

sense so

may

write

A.

That But

is to this

say,

for all purposes

not

of measurement.
to

prin
terms

ciplemust
in the

be

applied except

get rid of all the

As
a

highest order

of infinitesimals present. of infinitesimals with

mathe that

matician, I prefer the method

far easier and limits, as
the that
as latter, are

to

of

less infested
some

snares.

Indeed, propositions

stated

in

books,
the

involves
with and

false;but
used
the

this is not

case

the

forms As

of

the method

by Cauchy, Duhamel,
doctrine

others.
the

they
of the

understand

of

it limits,

involves in

notion

continuity,and, therefore,contains
very
same

another

shape

ideas

as

the

doctrine

of infinitesimals.

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

219

Let

us

now

consider is

an

aspect

of

the in

Aristotelical

prin Sup
every

ciple
pose

which
a

particularly important
to

philosophy.
so

surface
on

be

part
red

red
or

and

part

blue;
of

that
no

point
can

it is either both red and

blue, and, What,

red
at

course,

part
of the

be

blue.
the
to

then,
the

is the

color
The

boundary
is that red

line
or

between

and

blue? be
is the of

answer

blue,
the

exist of

all,must
surface

spread
color the

over

surface;
surface

and in the
use

color

the

of

the I the any

immediate
a

neighborhood
form the of

point.
as

purposely
parts
of

vague in
a

expression.

Now,

the

surface
upon

immediate

neighborhood
are

of of

ordinary point
red and and half that half

curved

boundary
that
the
we

half

them red
to

blue,
In

it follows

boundary
find

is half

blue.

like

manner,

it necessary and

hold

consciousness
to

occupies time; essentially

at

what is

is present

the
a

mind
moment

any in

ordinary instant,
which and that half
at to

is what
occurs.

present

during
the

instant
come.

Thus,
the from

present
of
the has

is half

past
a

Again,

color
a

parts

of

surface do with

any

finite distance

point,

nothing

to

its color any the

just

at

that

point; and,
from the

in the

the feelingat parallel, has

finite interval

present

nothing
Take of in

to

do

with
case:

present

feeling,
of
a

except

vicariously.
at

another time

the

velocity

particle
an

any

instant instant

is its

mean

velocity during
time is contained.
an

infinitesimal
so

which my

that

Just

my

immediate duration

feeling is containing

feeling through
present
instant.

in

finitesimal

the

220

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

ANALYSIS

OF

TIME

One
is that from

of the most it makes

to to

marked time
to

features have
a

about

the

law

of mind of flow

definite

direction

past

future. the law This of

The

relation

of past to from

future

is, in
of be

reference future
tween to

mind,

different
one

the relation

past.

makes and

of the great contrasts of

the law is
no more

of mind

the law between

physical force,where opposite direc

and

there

distinction than between

the two northward

tions in time southward. In

moving

moving

to analyze the law order, therefore,

of

mind,

we

must

begin by asking
we

what

the

flow
to

of

time

consists
state

in. of

Now, feeling,

find that
are a

in reference of
two

any

individual which what

all others

classes,those
to

affect this

this

one we

(or

have

tendency

affect those

it,and
which

means

shall

and inquireshortly),

do not. the future.

The

present

is affectible

by

the

past but
A

not

by

Moreover,

if state

is affected

by

state

B, and
not

state
so

by
so.
t

state

C,

then

A is affected if A

by

state

C, though

much

It

that follows,

is affectible

by B,

is not

affectible

by

A.

If, of

two

states, each
are

is

absolutely unaffectible by
as

the

other, they They

To
are

to

be

regarded

parts of the

same

state.

contemporaneous.
that and
a

say
one

state

is between

two

states

means

that it
any
two

affects
states

is affected lies
an

by

the other.

Between

in this

sense

innumerable
a

series of states
a

af

one fecting

another; and
other
state

if

state
can

lies between be reached

given state

and

any

which

by inserting

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

221

states states

between
not

this state and

any

third state, these inserted

or being affected by either, immediately affecting

then

the

second

rate

mentioned, immediately affects

sense

or

is is

affected

by

the

in the first, in
a

that in the

one

the other

ipso facto present

These

reduced
a

degree.
definition of time and
of its
a

involve propositions
Over and above that

flow.

this definition
state

they

involve

doc

trine,namely,
every

every

of

feelingis

affectible

by

earlier state.

THAT

FEELINGS

HAVE

INTENSIVE

CONTINUITY

Time kind form of

with

its

involves continuity logically

its
own.

some

other

continuity than

Time,
there

as

the

universal
to

of

change, cannot
and be
a

exist unless
to

is

something
continuous

undergo change, time, there

Of the
must

undergo

change

in

continuity of changeable qualities.

of feeling we qualities The
can now

continuityof
but
a

intrinsic

form human

feeble
has

conception.

development

of

the

mind
a

ex extinguished all feelings, practically

cept

few

smells,warmth, sporadic kinds, sound, colors,

now

etc., which
In the
case

appear

to

be
is

disconnected
a

and

disparate.
spread
connected of

of

colors,there

tridimensional have been

all feelings feelings. Originally, may in the of

same

way,
was

and

the

presumption
For

is that

the number

dimensions
a

endless.

development essentially given

are a

involves

But limitation of possibilities. of

number

of dimensions

all possiblevarieties feeling,

obtainable Accord
of in of

by varying the ingly, time

intensities of the different elements.

a

logically supposes
It

continuous the

range

tensityin feeling.

follows,then, from

definition

222

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

continuity,that
present,
an

when

any

kind particular of all

of

feelingis

infinitesimal continuum
that is

feelings differing

from infinitesimally

present.
SPATIAL EXTENSION

THAT

FEELINGS

HAVE

Consider
mould.
contents

gob

of
not

protoplasm,say
differ in any

an

amoeba
way

or

slimethe less

It does of
a

radical

from
be

nerve-cell, though
is
no

its functions that this

mass

may

specialized. There
this

doubt
some

slime-mould,or
of

amoeba, or
That But

at any

rate

similar

protoplasm
con

feels. dition.

is to say, it feels when

note

it is in its excited When the

how

it behaves. upon is set

whole

is
at

quiescent and
this

a place rigid,

it is irritated. up, and this

Just

point, an

active motion

gradually
relation
It

spreads to
to
a a

other

parts.
other

In this

no unity nor action,

nucleus, or
mere

unitary

organ of

can

be

discerned.

is

amorphous continuum
one

with feeling protoplasm, Nor is there

not

passing from
like
new a

part to another.
The
fast
out
as

anything
to

wave-motion.

activitydoes
it leaves
a

advance

parts, just as

old parts.
rate

Rather,

in

the it

it dies beginning, And

at

slower

than

that at which

spreads.
mass

while

the process
second In each

is

going

on,

by exciting
state
ex

the

at

another will be

point,a
set

quite independent
some

of excitation citation will

up.

places, neither

exist,in

others

separately,in together.

still other there is feel

both places,

effects will be added

Whatever there

is in the whole

phenomenon
mass

to

make
"

us

think

ing in

such

of

protoplasm,

but plainlyno feeling, that that

personality,
"

goes

to logically

show

feelinghas
the excited

or subjective, substantial, extension,as spatial

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

223
to

state

has.

This

is,no
a

doubt,

difficult idea
an

for seize,

the

reason

that it is that
we

not subjective,
a

extension. objective,
Pro It is

It is not fessor

have

of bigness; though feeling that

we

teaches James, perhaps rightly,

as feeling, a

have.

that the
our own we

is big. Moreover, subjectof inhesion, focused that in attention ideas

not
are

are feelings are

to

such

degree
an

that

not

aware

not

brought to

ab

solute

unity; just as
has any

nobody
how

instructed
very

by specialex

periment
vision wanders that have the
a

idea

very,

little of the field of how the attention

is distinct.

we Still, our are

all know

about

among

feelings;and
not

this

fact shows
in attention

those
a same

that feelings

co-ordinated
are

reciprocalexternality, although they

time. But
we

present

at

must

not

tax

to introspection

make
exter

phenomenon

manifest

which

involves essentially

nality.
Since
an

space

is

continuous, it follows
of

that

there

must

be

immediate

community

between feeling
Without for minds

parts of mind
believe
to
one

near infinitesimally

together. impossible

this, I

it

would

have

been
to

external

another,ever
ble for any

become

and co-ordinated,
to

equally impossi
in the action of

coordination of
one

be

established

the nerve-matter

brain.

AFFECTIONS

OF

IDEAS

But that

we one

are

met

by

the question what

The

is meant unravelment
a

by saying
of this

idea

affects another.
to

problem requiresus
Three intrinsic elements
go

trace
to

out

phenomena
up
an

little further. first is its energy

make

idea. second

The

quality as

feeling.

The

is the

224

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

with

which

it affects other

an ideas,

energy

which

is infinite

in the here-and-nowness relative the in the recency

an

of immediate of the
to

sensation,finite and
The

past.

third element ideas with

ideas

is it.

tendency of
an

idea

bring along
of

other

As

idea

spreads,its power

other affecting

gets

rapidly reduced; but unchanged.

in his It is and

its intrinsic
now

quality remains
saw a

nearly
cardinal
become
remem

long years
my memory

since I last of their

robes;
dimmed.
as

color

has

much bered

The
I have

color
no

itself, however,
inclination
to

is not
a

dim.

call it

dull red.

Thus,
more

the

intrinsic

quality remains
will show the other
seems a

little

changed;

yet
of

accurate

observation

slightreduction
has the

it.

The well
to

third
as

element, on

hand,
to
me

increased. cardinals I

As
used

can wore

it recollect, robes
more

see

scarlet than
know the

vermillion

is,

and

highly luminous.
is
on

I Still,

color

commonly
and

called cardinal

the crimson

side of vermillion
the

of

quite
so

moderate other

luminosity, and
hues with and it,

idea original itself so

calls up

many
am

asserts

that feebly,

unable

any

longer to isolate
of time

it.
an

finite interval

generallycontains
when is these
a

innumer welded For idea

to
we

and able series of feelings;

become

the gether in association, have

comes

result

general idea.
spreading
an

just

seen

how

by

continuous

be

generalised.
first character

The it is mal and

of

generalidea

so

resultingis that
infinitesi feeling,

livingfeeling. A
in

continuum still

of this

duration, but

embracing

innumerable

parts,
im
a

also, though infinitesimal, entirely unlimited,is

And
in its absence

mediately present.

of boundedness

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

225

vague

of possibility in the

more

than
of

is present

is

directlyfelt. feeling,
doubt

Second,
nominalistic about
one

presence appear

this continuity of futile.

There
we

maxims
idea
one

is
can

no

affecting another, when

gradually modified
can

directly
itself into

perceivethe
the other.
one

and

shaping
any
can

Nor

there

any

longer be
we

about difficulty pass

idea

resemblinganother,when
field of

along
and

the

continuous

quality from
which
we

one

to

the other

back

again

to the

point

had

marked.

Future Past

of Third, consider the insistency of

a

an

idea.

The
a

insistency
quantity
rises to
with

past idea

with

reference

to

the

present is

which

is less the further back

the past idea Here
we

and that past idea is, up

one

as infinity

is

brought
make

into coincidence of those have

the present.

must

inductive

of applications

the law

of

which continuity

produced

226

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

such extend

great results
the law
a

in

all the

positive sciences.
the future.
to

We

must

of

insistencyinto
idea with the minus there

Plainly,the
a

of insistency

future

reference

the present is

quantity

affected

by

sign;
be any

for it is the
not effect,
curve

present

that affects the that affects

a

future,if
present.
of

the future of the insis

the

Accordingly, the

tency is
Such
a

sort

hyperbola. equilateral
is
none now

(See

figure.)
that its

conception

the be

less

mathematical,

cannot quantification

exactlyspecified.
which
we

Now into.

consider This into

curve

the induction says that

have

here has

been
not

led

feelingwhich
is is

yet

emerged
and which
a

immediate

consciousness In

already

affectible virtue of

already affected.
an

fact,this
up

habit,by

idea that idea

is

brought already
it
was

into present consciousness

by

bond

had while

been

established

between

it and

another We other
as a

still in

juturo.
of
one

can

now

see

what

the affection
the

idea by

an

consists

in.

It is that the

affected

idea
as

is attached

logical predicate to
a

idea affecting

subject. So

when

feeling emerges
appears
as a

into immediate
of
a more

consciousness,it
or

always

modification mind. The

less

general
well

object already in the adapted by,

or

word The

suggestion is
future is

to

expressingthis
is influenced

relation.

suggested

rather

by

the

suggestionsof, the past.

BY

IDEAS

CANNOT

BE

CONNECTED

EXCEPT

CONTINUITY

That is

ideas

can

nowise
to

be
one

connected who

without

continuity
the
matter.
con

evident sufficiently
still the

reflects upon
that

But

opinion
once

may the

be

entertained
of

after

tinuity has

made

connection

ideas

possible,

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

227

then

they

may

get

to

be

connected

in
cannot

other
see

modes how

than anyone

through continuity. Certainly, I

can we

deny
call

that

the may

infinite

diversityof
into

the

universe,which
are

chance,

bring ideas
general

proximity which
It may do

not

associated But
a

in then

one

idea.

this many will pro

times. duce

the law

of continuous

spreading
is
an

mental

and association;

this I suppose has

abridged
But ideas

statement

of the way asked

whether

the universe
a

been
cannot not

evolved.

if I

am

blind
that

avayKrj it would

bring
remain

together,first I point
There

out

blind.

being

continuous

connection associated

between
in
a

the

ideas,

they would
and

become infallibly

living, feeling,
see

general idea. perceiving

or

Next,

I cannot would

what

the in. the

mustness

necessity of

this

avayKfj the

consist says

In

the

absolute

uniformity of

phenomenon,
for if it

nominalist.

Absolute three
times

is well put in

in;

merely hap

pened
in

so

succession,or
of any
to

three

million times

in succession,

the absence attributed

over

reason, But infinite

the coincidence

could

only

be

chance.

absolute

uni it
we

formity must
is idle to talk
can

extend of that that

the whole
as an

future; and
I think

except

idea.
come

No;

only hold
into

wherever

ideas

together they

tend

to weld

general ideas; and

govern

wherever the

they are

generally
and these

connected, general ideas

connection;
out.

general ideas
MENTAL

are

spread livingfeelings
LAW FOLLOWS
THE

FORMS

OF

LOGIC

The

three main and

classes of

inference logical These

are

Deduction,
to

Induction,
chief modes

Hypothesis.

correspond
soul.

three the

of action

of the human

In deduction

228

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

mind virtue

is under of which

the
a

dominion

of

habit

or

association
case a corre

by

general idea suggests

But
a

in each

sponding
volve that

reaction. idea.

certain

sensation

is

seen

to

in

Consequently,that
That the
rest

sensation hind

is followed
a

by

that

reaction. from

is the way of the

the

legs of
when

frog,
you

separated pinch
tation. them.

body,
of

reason,

It is the

lowest

form

psychical manifes

a By induction,

habit

becomes

established.

Certain followed

sen

sations,all involving one by

the
same

general idea, are

an

each estab uni

reaction; and
that

association
to

becomes
be followed

lished, whereby formly by

Habit
a

general idea gets

that

reaction. of the specialization the power idea of law of mind

is that

whereby
But

general idea gains

that the

excitingreactions.
attain

in order

general

should

all its func

it tionality,

is necessary,

also, that
That of
as

it should

become
a

sug

gestible by
process thetic

sensations. the form mean, from

is

accomplished by

psychical By hypo

having

hypothetic inference.
I have

I inference, induction of
man

explained in

other I

writ know
"

ings, an

qualities.For
and He classed has
a

example,
"

that the kind has certain

known

as

mugwump

characteristics. value upon

and high self-respect He laments the

places great

social distinction.
and

great part that

rowdyism

unrefined

good-fellowship
their
con

play in

the

dealingsof
He thinks

American

with politicians

stituency.
from the

that the
of the
to

reform

which

would

follow the dis

abandonment

system

by which

tribution of offices is made

and
a

strengthenparty organizations
essential

return

to

the

and original

conception of

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

229

would office-filling
that monetary
ones

be

found

an

unmixed

good.

He

holds

considerations

should

usuallybe
He

the decisive

in

questionsof publicpolicy.
individualism of civilization. and
of

respects the prin

the greatest
know

cipleof
agency
to

as laissez-faire

These of
in he
"

views, among

others,I Now,

be

obtrusive

marks
a man

a a

mugwump."

suppose

casually meet

and railway-train,

into falling
am

conversation

find that
to

holds
that That

opinionsof
"

this sort; I

naturally led
is

suppose

he is

mugwump."
a

That

inference. hypothetic
of
a

is to say,

number

of readily
find this

verifiable marks
man

mugwump

I being selected, all the other

has go that

these,and
to

infer that he has

a a

characters
us

which pose
a

make

thinker
man

of that
a

stripe. Or let

sup and

I meet

of

semi-clerical appearance
to

who sniff, sub-pharisaical

appears wooden

look

at

things from
He cites

the

point

of

view of

of

rather

dualism.
with he

several tion
to

texts

scriptureand

always

atten particular

their

and logicalimplications;

exhibits

stern

ness, almost in

amounting
I

to

toward vindictiveness, that he is

a

evil-doers,
of
a

general.

readily conclude
Now

minister
a

certain
to

denomination.
time
we

the mind power

acts

in

way

similar

this, every
in
a

acquire a
as

of

co-ordinatingre
any
act

actions

peculiarway, Thus,
most

in

performing
have and
a

requir

ing
the

skill.
two

persons

in moving difficulty

hands
two

simultaneously

in

opposite
medial

directions

through
the

parallelcircles nearly
To learn
to

in the

plane
to

of

body.

do

it this,

is necessary

attend, motion, springs

motion

to the different actions first,

in different parts of the of the We action the

when up

suddenly
and

general conception
perfectly easy.

it becomes

think

230

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

we

are

trying to
the

do

involves this action,and

comes

and this,

this.

Then,
and the

generalidea

which
to

unites the

all those motion is many

a

actions,
calls up times

thereupon the desire

perform
mental

generalidea.
whenever

The
we

same are

process

employed
or are

learning to speak

language

acquiring any

sort

of skill. number under of sensations

one

Thus, by induction,a
one

followed

by

reaction the
same

become

united

general idea followed hypothetic process,

occasion
a

by

reaction; while

by

the
one

number in
a

of reactions

called for by
is called
out

get united
occasion.

generalidea

which habit

by

the

same

By deduction,
certain

the
on

fulfils its function

of

callingout

reactions

certain

occasions.

UNCERTAINTY

OF

MENTAL

ACTION

The

inductive

and

hypothetic

forms

of

inference while

are

not probable inferences, essentially

necessary;

deduc

tion may But

no

be

either

necessary
seems

or

probable.
be necessary the mind it is the
an or

mental

action

to

invariable
has
more

in its character. under

to
a

In whatever

manner manner

reacted

in given sensation,

that

likely

react

again;

were

this,however,
wooden and of close. defect truth

absolute

necessity,
no

habits

would

become

and ineradicable,
new

room

being
would the

left for the formation

come

habits,intellectual Thus,
of the

life

to

speedy
no mere

uncertainty of
is
on

mental

law

is

it,but
mind
matter

the

con

trary of its
to
"

essence.
same

The

is,the
that

is not is. it
more

subject
It

law,"

in the

rigid sense
which

only

experiencesgentle forces
to act

merely

render

likely
There

in

given

way

than

it otherwise

would

be.

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

231

always
in its Some reactions of the is
a

remains

certain which

amount

of

arbitrary spontaneity
be
dead. the

action, without

it would
to

psychologists think
with of the

reconcile
necessary for
a

uncertainty by
of
means

of

principle of

causation this
case

law

fatigue. Truly
I think idea into my
"

law,
a

law

fatigue
general

little lawless. that

an

it is

merely

of the its
not
"

principle
Put for it to
me

in

spreading salad,
What when
nectar

loses I have

insistency.
tasted But
a

tarragon
and dish has

it

years, every

I exclaim

is this!

add
of into upon it
one

I taste been

for week

after and any

a new

week,
thus

and

habit

expectation habit, the

me; or,

created;

in

spreading impression

sensation

makes

hardly
it is The of
on

more

if it be
as

noticed,
a

side that I
am

from

which

appears of
to
as

rather

bore.

doctrine
mind little

fatigue is
much
to

the

primordial phenomena
It
seems a

disposed
be allowed

doubt.
an

somewhat

thing

exception
For this

to

the

great principle of mental

I

uniformizamanner

tion.
here To

reason,
as a

prefer
case

to

explain
of that

it in the

indicated,
consider it
as

special

great

principle. certainly
but
even

something
the

distinct

in its nature,

somewhat if it be

strengthens

necessitarian that

position;
all the

distinct,the
arbitrariness
away
me

hypothesis
of of mental absolute itself to

variety
to

and
ex

apparent

action

ought

be

plained
seem

in
to

favor

determinism
a

does sound facts and

not

to

recommend seeks

sober

and

judg
not

ment,
that of

which

the

guidance

of

observed

prepossessions.

232

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

RESTATEMENT

OF

THE

LAW

Let

me

now

try
and

to

gather

up

all these of

odds
in
a

and

ends

of

commentary

restate

the law
that when

mind,
we

unitaryway.
from
a

First,then, we

find

regard ideas
way, the That

sensualistic nominalistic, individualistic, facts of mind become

simplest
one

utterlymeaningless.
or

idea
one

should
state

resemble

another
so

influence
as

another, or

that

of mind that

should

much

be

thought

of in another

is,

from

standpoint,sheer
this and other evident into
a

nonsense. means we are

Second, by ceive, what

driven

to

per

is

quite

of

that itself, of

instantaneous which feeling,

feelingsflow together
has has in
a

continuum

modified

of feeling and degree the peculiarvivacity And in reference

to

gained generality.
continua of

such

general
resem

ideas, or
blance
to have

the difficulties about feeling,

and any

suggestion and
force.

reference

to

the

external,cease

Third, they
time

these in

general

ideas

are

not

mere

words,
facts

nor

do

consist

this,that
certain
or

certain

concrete

will every

happen
are

under

of conditions; but descriptions rather

out

they
than And does

just as

much,

far

more,

living realities
concreted. law

the
to not

themselves feelings say

mean

of which
are

they are

that

mental that

phenomena they
a are

governed by by
a

merely
that

describable

general
con

formula;
tinuum
are

but

there

is

livingidea, a
and

conscious
to which

of

which feeling,

pervades them,

they

docile.

Fourth, this
ing harmony,

supreme
not

law, which
so

is the demand

celestial and
that the

liv

does

much

as

special

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

233

ideas shall surrender

their would

peculiararbitrariness
be self-destructive.
and

and

caprice

entirely;for

that

It

only by

re one

quires that they shall influence

another. in Fifth, what
measure

be

influenced

this unification
at

acts,

seems

to

be
in

regulated only by specialrules; or,

our

we least,

cannot

present knowledge
said

say

how

far

it goes. the
amount

But

it may of arbi

be

that,judging by
in

appearances, of human

trariness

the

phenomena
very

minds

is neither

nor altogether trifling

prominent.

PERSONALITY

Having
eral, I
nomenon

thus endeavored
to

to

state

the law of
a

of

mind,

in gen

descend

the

consideration

phe particular
in
our own con

which

is

remarkably prominent
personality. A
recent

that sciousnesses, upon this

of

strong lightis thrown

of double time and

subject by

observations

multiple personality. The plausiblethat

two two

theory which
in
one

at one

seemed
to

persons

body corresponded
be

the

halves

of the brain
to

will,I take it,now

But that

universally
which
some

acknowledged
cases

be

insufficient.
is that

these kind
to

make

quite manifest
or

personalityis
Not

of co-ordination

connection when
are we

of ideas. consider

much

say, the

this, perhaps.
which principle ideas is itself
a

Yet
we

that,according to
a

tracing out,

connection
a

between is ap
a

general idea, and

we

that

general idea
an

it is plain that living feeling,

have

at least taken

preciable step toward

This like personality,
an

the any

understanding of personality.
general idea, is
It has
to be
not
a

thing

to

be apprehended in

instant.

lived in

time;

234

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

nor

can

any

finite time

embrace

it in all its fullness.

Yet

in each

infinitesimal

interval

it is present and of feelings in

living, though
that
a

colored specially
so Personality,

by
far

the immediate
as

moment.

it is

apprehended

moment,

is

immediate But

self-consciousness.
co-ordination

the word

implies somewhat
in

more

than in the pur

this; it implies a teleological harmony

case

ideas,and
than
a a mere

of

personalitythis teleologyis
of
a

more

posive pursuit
mental

predeterminate end;
This is

it is

develop
A

teleology.

personal
now,

character.

general

idea,livingand
of acts in the

conscious

it is
to

already
which

determinative it is not
now

future

to

an

extent

conscious. This reference

to

the the
room

future ends for of

is
a

an

essential

element

of

personality.Were
there

person

already explicit,
for

would

be

no

development, fdr growth,

would be
no

and life;
mere

consequently there
of
an

personality.

The

carrying out
remark
a

predetermined

purposes

is mechanical.

This

has

to application

the

philosophy of religion.

It is that that makes

genuine evolutionary philosophy, that is, one

the

principle of growth
so

primordial

element the idea that

of the of
a

universe, is

far from

to being antagonistic

personal creator,
a

that it is

reallyinseparablefrom
in
an

idea; while position and

necessitarian is destined

is religion
to

altogetherfalse
a

become

disintegrated. But
mechanical law above

pseudo-evolutionism which
the

enthrones is at
once

principle of growth,

unsatis scientifically
of how of the universe has

as giving no factory, come

possiblehint
to

about, and

hostile

all

hopes

personal relations

to God.

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

235

COMMUNICATION

with Consistently of this paper, I

am an an as

the doctrine bound idea

to

laid down that

in the
an

beginning
can

maintain continuous

idea

only
it.

be

affected

by
but

in

connection
at

with all.

By anything obligesme
we

idea,it cannot
I do say,
on

be affected other

This what mind

to

say,

grounds, that
is the

call matter

is not

completely dead, but

It that still retains diversification
one

merely
element is

hide-bound

with

habits. in

of life.
is

and diversification; When

an

there
to

idea

is

conveyed

from

mind

another, it

by
say

forms

of combination curious
a

of the diverse
or

elements union the

of nature, of law
are a

by

some

symmetry,
odor.
no

by

some

tender of
me

color

with

refined has

To

such

forms

chanical

energy

application.If they
and their

eternal,
be
em

it is in the accounted bodied how

we our

spirit they embody;

for

origin cannot
are

by

any
so

mechanical

necessity. They
convey and of ideas.

ideas; and

only

can

they
colors

Precisely
are

primary sensations, as
cannot

tones,

excited,
But in

in tell,

the present state think that

we are same

psychology.
libertyto
as

ignorance, I they
arise in

at

suppose the other

that

the essentially As

manner as are

called feelings,
are

secondary.
know

far

sight only
and

and

hearing

in

question,we
of
are

that

they

excited the the

by

vi

brations
senses

inconceivable
not
more

complexity; simple.

chemical

probably

Even

least psy
has in its

chical

of

peripheral sensations, that

conditions

of pressure,

excitation
seen

which, though apparently simple, are

when The
we

to

be

complicated enough
their attractions.

consider

the mole which

I

cules

and

with principle

236
set out

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

requires me
to

to

maintain

that

these

are feelings

communicated
must

the

nerves

so by continuity,

that

there

be

something

like them

in the
to

excitants

themselves.
that it is
sen

If this the

seems

extravagant, it is
of

be remembered

sole

possibleway
otherwise

reaching any
be

explanationof
a

which sation,

must

pronounced
Now

general fact,
absolute in-

and absolutelyinexplicable

ultimate.
sound

is a hypothesiswhich explicability any

refuses logic

under

circumstances
be asked
to

to

justify.
my

I may
or

whether

theory would
have
no

be favorable
answer

otherwise
to

telepathy. I
first

decided

to

give

this.

At

it sight,

seems

unfavorable.
connection

Yet

there may minds The takes

be other modes
than those

of continuous of time and

between

other

space.

recognitionby place by
means

one

person
extent
own

of another's identical with

personality
the
means

to some

by

which

he is conscious

of his

personality. The
as

idea that

of the second second

which personality,

is

much the is
as

as

to

say

enters personalityitself,

within and

field of

direct

consciousness

of

the

first person,

immediately
At is the
same

perceived as

his ego,

though

less

strongly.
persons is

time, the oppositionbetween

so

the two second

perceived,

that The

the

of externality

the

recognized.
be So
are

phenomena psychological
two

of intercommunication

tween

minds

have

been

littlestudied. unfortunately for whether certain, But able the very

to

that

it is

impossibleto

say,

they

favorable to this which insight

indications
so some

theory or
persons

not.
are

extraordinary
others from what

gain of

that slight

it is difficult to
more

ascertain

they
view

are, is

rendered certainly

comprehensible by the

here taken.

THE

LAW

OF

MIND

237

A
this.
to

difficultywhich
In

confronts

the

synechistic philosophy
that

is

considering
the doctrine

personality,
of
a

philosophy
but
in

is forced

accept

personal
but
a

God;
that

considering
is
a

communication,
sonal and

it cannot
must

admit

if there of

per

God,
indeed

we

have

direct

perception
with how

that him.

person

be
the

in case, of

personal
the

communication arises
ever

Now,
that

if that the

be

question
being
answer

it is have

possible

existence

this

should that
our

been
at

doubted

by anybody.
is that
us

The

only
stand far That

can

present
eyes and
ones

make
stare most

facts
the face

that
are

before
from has

face
in

and

in

being,
been

all cases,

the from

easily discerned.
memorial.

remarked

time

im

CONCLUSION

I have the that

thus

developed

as

well
as

as

could
to

in

little space
I think

synechistic
I have
room

philosophy,
in

applied
it clear

mind. that which and

succeeded for

making
of

this

doctrine it that

gives
are

explanations
and with the

many

facts

without further

absolutely
along
of

hopelessly inexplicable;
it the
most

it carries cal realism

following
pronounced

doctrines:

ist,

logi

type;

2nd, objective thoroughgoing

presents
no

idealism;
evolutionism.

3rd, tychism,
We
to

with notice

its

consequent
the doctrine
as some

also

that

hindrances
are

spiritual influences, such

philosophies

felt to

do.

IV.

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE1

IN

The

Monist

for
to

January,
form the among

1891,
brick

tried

to

show of
a

what

conceptions ought losophical system.

chance In for I

and
was

mortar

phi

Chief
I

these in

that

of absolute

which

argued

again

last

April's number.2
idea, that
of
to
con

July,

applied
the law

another of mind. of

fundamental Next in

tinuity, to date,
the from

order,
the
a

I have

eluci

the

point
and

view

chosen,
of I

relation substance.
be

between

psychical

physical aspects
this of

The

first step towards

a

ought,

think, to
But
at

the

fram

ing

of

molecular
seems

theory

protoplasm.
to

before

doing

that,

it

indispensable
general.
after

glance

the

constitution
make
a

of matter,

in

We

shall,thus, unavoidably pains

are

long detour; but,

for the will

all, our
papers that of

will
to

not

be

wasted,

problems
for the

of the

follow

in the series

call

consideration
are

the

same

question.
evidence is
enormous

All

physicists
which in

rightly agreed
all sensible and

the
matter

is

over

whelming
molecules

shows

composed
mutual Sir William action
not at

of

swift

motion

exerting

attractions, and Thomson,

distance Lord and of

perhaps Kelvin,

repulsions,too.
who the wishes doctrine
to

Even

explode
a

return

to

of
to

plenum,

only
mag-

speaks
1

molecules, but
October,
to

undertakes

assign

definite

The
I
am as

Monist, rejoiced
subtle for M.

1892.
my
as

find, since profound

element and M.

last Dr. the

paper

was

printed,
Montgomery
Other
to

that

phil long

osopher
been

and the
same

Edmund universe.
appear

has

arguing
as

in

world-renowned this

thinkers,

Renouvier

Delboeuf, 238

share

opinion.

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

239

nitudes
not

to them.

The

brilliant Judge Stallo, a

his
war own

man

who

did

estimate always rightly for

in accepting qualities the To atomic old

tasks
a

himself,declared
careful which make he

upon

theory

in

book

well worth of atoms able

to

perusal.
found

the

arguments

in favor he
was were

in Fechner's

monograph, force,though
But These

of replies
to

considerable

they

not

sufficient

destroy those arguments.

no

against modern
set out

proofs
the

he made

headway
of
a

at

all.

from

mechanical
that it
was

theory
is not

heat.

Rumford's

experiments showed
demonstrated
of gases that

heat
a

substance.
The

Joule heating

form

of energy. and
not

under

constant

volume,

other

facts instanced
energy it
was

by Rankine, proved
This drove

that it could

be

an

of strain.
a

to physicists

the conclusion remembered of gases

to

that that could

mode

of motion. had for shown

Then that

it the

was

John
be

Bernoulli accounted

pressure

by assuming

their molecules The

same

be

moving uniformly in
was now seen

rectilinear
account

paths.

hypothesis
in

to

for kinds

Avogadro's law, that

of
are

equal volumes
same

of dif and

ferent

gases

exposed

to

the

pressure of

temperature

contained found
gases,
to

equal
account

numbers

molecules. of diffu relation

it was Shortly after, sion and of viscosity these the

for the laws numerical

and

for the

between furnished
which

properties. Finally, Crookes's

last link in the

radiometer of evidence

strongest chain

supports any

physicalhypothesis.
of gases,

Such be

being
in

the constitution which the

liquidsmust
in
or

clearly

bodies

molecules
move

wander in orbits

curvilinear

paths, while (See

my

in solids

they

quasi-orbits.

definition

solid

II,

i, in the

Century Dictionary.}

240

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

We

see

that

the

resistance sensible

to

compression is,by
one

and

to

inter-

penetrationbetween
of propositions
to

bodies

of the

prime

the molecular energy of

theory,due
the from

in

largemeasure
must

the

kinetical
to be

which particles,
one

be
aver

supposed
age,
even

quite remote
This and

another,on
no

the

in solids.

resistance is

doubt the
can

influenced molecules. observe kinetic

no

by finite attractions
All the

repulsionsbetween
bodies
which
we

of impenetrability limited

is,
and

therefore,a

impenetrability due
This

to

positional energy. right to

clusive
atoms.

being

the case,

we

have

logical
the
or ex

suppose occupancy It is
we are an

that of

absolute space,

or impenetrability,

belongs

to

molecules
a vera

to

unwarranted
to

hypothesis,not
the

causa*

Unless tional be
an

give up
and

theory

of energy,

finite

posi
must to

attractions

repulsions between

molecules
amount

admitted.
infinite

Absolute
a

impenetrabilitywould
certain
excuse

repulsionat

distance. such such

a a

No
wanton

analogy

of

known
of the

phenomena

exists to

violation In idea

principleof continuityas
are

hypothesis is.

we short,

bound logically is

to

adopt

the Boscovichian

that

an

atom

simply

distribution

of component

potential

energy

throughout

space

distribution (this inertia. The

being absolutely
be

rigid),combined

with

potential energy
conceived
as

longs to
between cules A

two

molecules,and
A The and B

is to be from

different mole
neces

molecules
and C.

what

it is between is not

distribution of energy
a

sarilyspherical. Nay,
more
3

molecule
even

may have

conceivably
a

have

than
By
to
a

one

center; it may
causa,
some

central
a

curve,
of

vera

in the
cases

logic of science, is
and

meant

state

things

known it would

exist in
account

supposed phenomena.

to

exist in other

cases,

because

for

observed

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

241

returning into
observed
On the facts other

itself.

But

do

not

think

there
linear

are

any

pointing to hand,
many

such

multiple or

centers.

facts relatingto
to show

crystals, espe

those cially

observed

by Voigt,4go
but
which
5

that the distribu We

can

tion of energy

is harmonical the forces

not

concentric.
atoms
must

easily calculate
upon
to
one

such that

exert

another

by considering

they

are

equivalent negative
an

positiveand aggregationsof pairs of electrically

to
one

near points infinitely

another.

About of

such

atom

there would and the

be

and regionsof positive and distribution of the

cases

negativepotential,
regions
which
would it is

number the

of
a

such number

determine easy
to see

valency
in many

atom,

would dwell paper,

be somewhat
this

indeterminate.

I must In

not

further

upon

hypothesis,at present.
will be further
con

another

its consequences

sidered. I read ular the law the

cannot
assume

that
are

the

students versed

of

philosophy who
in modern
to

this

magazine

thoroughly

molec
that

physics, and, therefore,it

in governing principle of the virial.

is proper

mention

this branch the

of science

is Clausius's then

I will first state of the statement. energy of the

to

law, and
This

explain
is that in sta

peculiarterms

statement
a

the total kinetic

of particles

system

tionary motion
is here other.6
meant
a

is

equal

the total virial.

By
upon

system
one an

number

of

particlesacting
a

Stationary motion
Annalen,
on

is

motion quasi-orbital

among

4 5

Wiedemann,
See Maxwell

1887-1889.
in

Spherical Harmonics,
has

his

Ekctritity

and

Magnetism.
6

The

word
an

system

three peculiar meanings

of

in mathematics.

(4.)
hence

It

means

orderly exposition of the truths

astronomy,

and

242

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

system

of

so particles

that

none nor

of them

are

removed

to

indefinitely great
velocities.
which of any
a

distances

acquire indefinitely great

of
a

The be

kinetic

energy

particleis

the

work

would forces of

required to bring
may half

it to

rest,independently
it. the The virial of which inde

which

be acting upon
the work which

pair

is particles

force

actually operates pendent

The of the

between

them
were

would
to

do

if,being
them

distance,it
the virial is

bring

together.

equationof

Here

is the

mass

of
two

v particle,

its
r

R velocity,

is the be

attraction
tween

between
The

and particles,
2
are on

is the distance side

them. the values

SS

sign

the be

left hand summed side

signifies
par the

that

of mv2
on

to

for all the that signifies

and ticles, values of Rr is

an

the

right hand

are

to be

summed

for all the P

pairs of particles.
the

If there upon the

external pressure
and the

(as
of

from

atmosphere)
space within

the

system,

volume is
so

vacant

boundary
as

of that pressure

F, then
that the

the

virial must

be

understood

includingf PF,

equation is

There that

is strong the

(ifnot

demonstrative) body
the
the
sense

reason

for

thinking
zero

temperature

of any

above

the

absolute
kinetic

("273"
a

C.), is proportional to
of the motions This of of the

average
Ptolemaic in which

energy Coperof the

etc.

theory

stars;
like
the

as

system, the
we

nican

system.

is much

the

speak

Calvinistic

system
the
same

theology,
of the mutual
upon
as

Kantian

system

of
as

philosophy,
all moving
any
a

(J?.) It
somewhat of

means

aggregate
way,

the

planets considered
system; (C.)
of and It forces.

in

the

solar

hence
means

aggregate
number of

particles moving

under

forces

acting simultaneously

number

particles.

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

243

of its

molecules,or

say

ad, where

a we

is

constant

and

is

the absolute tion

temperature.

Hence,

may

write

the equa

a6 where the

J^raT2fPF
=

iSJRr
expressionssignify
are

heavy

lines above values for

the different

that the average In

singlemolecules

to be

taken. der

1872,

student

in the

University of Ley den,

a

Van

Waals, propounded in his thesis for the doctorate

ization of the

special

equation of Namely,

the virial which he writes it

has since attracted

great attention.

The
poses

quantity b
to

is the

volume

of

molecule, which
and all the virtue the

he

sup

be

an

impenetrablebody,
in this term which
account

of the cubic

equation lies
in

makes

equation a shape
an

V, which

is

required to
But of
an

for the idea of

of certain

isothermal
atom

curves.7

if the

impenetrable
is almost
us

is

that illogical, For

molecule impenetrable

absurd.
a

the kinetical
a

theory of
or

matter

teaches

that

molecule
we

is like suppose

solar system that in all

star-cluster in miniature.
gases and vapors

Unless internal that

heating of
the

work

is

performed
are

upon

molecules, implying
distances, the whole

their atoms

at

considerable
falls to
more

kinetical
term

theory
to

of gases

the than

ground.
a

As

for the

added

P, there is no

and roughly partial

let
us

for approximativejustification
7

it.

Namely,

imagine
show that
o,

But, in fact, an
are

inspectionof
the
an

these

curves

is sufficient to

they
or

of

higher degree than

a

third.

For

they
while

have for

the line V= small values

some

line V of

constant

for
are

asymptote,

of

P, the values

d2p/(dV)2

positive.

244

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

two

spheres described
of the

round
so

particle as
great
center
a as

their

center,
all the

the radius

largerbeing
action upon is
so

to include

particleswhose
the radius cules such
are a

the

is

sensible,while
many mole

of the smaller included

as

large that
The

good

within the
outer at

it.
one some

of describing possibility the attraction

some

sphere

implies that
distances than the

of the

varies particles power of the

inverselyas

higher
more

distance the

cube,

or,

to

speak
cube the
par

that clearly,

attraction
as

multiplied by

the

of the distance number ticle is each of the of

diminishes
a

the distance distance of

increases;for
from that
any
one

at particles

given
the

proportionate to gives a
term

square

distance is the

and

of these

of the virial which distance. the cube

as

product
unless di in de
a

the

attraction

into

the

Consequently,
of
soon

attraction
so

multiplied by

the

distance
to become

minished

rapidly with the

such
outer

distance
as

no sensible,

sphere

is

supposed

could that

be such

scribed.

However, ordinary experience shows

and

sphere is possible ;
at

consequently there
does
two

must

be distances
as

which

the

attraction The

thus

rapidly

diminish
so

the

distance consider between

increases.

spheres,then, being
due particle of the
to the

drawn,

the virial of the central them. N the Let the

particles
be in

density Then,

substance

creased, say,
virial before
same

times.

for

every

turn, Rr, of the

N
terms

condensation, there
after be the

will be

of the

magnitude

condensation.

Hence, the virial

the density,and
the

of each

will particle

to proportional

equation of

the virial becomes

aO

PV

='

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

245

This which

omits is
so

the virial within

the inner that

sphere, the radius

the
a

of of

taken
not

that

within

distance in

number

is particles For Van

to proportional

the number is the

largesphere.
of his hard But
must
some

der

Waals

this radius

diameter

molecules,which plain
a

assumption gives his equation.

attraction
between the

it is
to

that

the
extent

molecules

certain

modify
are

their

unless distribution,
The

pe der
a

culiar Waals In
a

conditions
can

fulfilled.

equation

of

Van

be
or

approximately true, therefore, only for liquid condition,in

of pressure has the which the
on

gas. of
a

solid
amount

removal the much volume.

small and than

little effect
virial must with

volume,
greater
For

where

consequently
the had virial must
a

be
the

PV,
we

increase in
a

suppose
an

substance volume

critical condition diminish

were

in which
more

increase it would

of the

would If
we

the

virial

than

increase of such
a

| PV.

to forcibly

diminish be

the volume
came

when substance, which

the

temperature
withstand

the equalized,

pressure

it could

would

be less than and

before,and
go
on an

it would

be still further
a

condensed,
were

this would in which than

until indefinitely increase of volume the

so

condition would In

reached

increase
the
case

\PV
of

more

it would may

decrease be zero;

virial.

P at least, solids,

that

the state with

not

reached

would
or

be

one

in which

the virial increases the

the

volume,
so

the attraction
a

between

does particles
as

increase

fast with attraction

diminution
were

of their distance the distance. Van

it would

if the

inverselyas

Almost
another
at

contemporaneously
remarkable thesis

with

der

Waals's
was

paper,

for the

doctorate
to

presented
ex-

Paris

by Amagat.

It related

the

and elasticity

246

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

pansion
menter,

of its

gases,

and

to

this

subject

the

superb experi subsequent

life. of
to

author, has

devoted

his whole

are Especiallyinteresting

his observations acid

at

of the volumes from 20"

ethylene and
1

of carbonic

temperatures
an ounce

00"

and

at pressures

ranging from
As
soon as

to 5000

pounds
these
at

to

the square

inch.

Amagat
"

had

obtained

he results,
constant

remarked
as

that it is

the

coefficient of

expansion

volume,"

that is, the absurdly called, with volume. the temperature, This accords
was

rate

of variation

of the pressure for each

very the

nearly

constant

with

equation

of the

which virial,

gives
d2Rr
_

dp
_

a,

d6

v~

'

dO

the IsTow,

virial must

be

nearly independent
almost

of the tempera The

the last term ture, and, therefore, virial would because of the
not

disappears.
the

be

quite independent of
the (i.e., the square

temperature,

if the

temperature

of the

velocity

molecules)is lowered, and

as

pressure the

correspond
same,
to

ingly lowered, so
tractions their of the

to

make

the

volume
more

the

at

molecules

will have

time

produce
the

and effects,

the pairs of consequently,

molecules and
a

closest
so

together will be held together longer

the virial will

closer;
decrease show
an

that

be generally

increased

by

of

temperature.

Now,

Amagat's experiments
this

do

excessivelyminute
volumes well
are

effect of small.

sort,

at

when least,

the
are ex

not

too

However,
the

the observations
"

enough
at

satisfied

by assuming
"

coefficient

of

pansion

constant

volume

to

consist

wholly
enable

of the
us

first de-

term, a/V.

Thus, Amagat's experiments

to

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

247

termine and
to

the values
we

of

and

thence

to

calculate the virial;

this

find varies for carbonic

acid gas

nearlyinversely
to

F"*9.
Van of

There
der

is,thus,a rough approximation equation.

But for the
our

satisfy

ing

Waals's

most

interesting
at

result

Amagat's experiments,

purpose
constant

any

rate, is that the quantity a, though nearly

one

for any

volume,

differs the

considerablywith
volume
mean

the

volume, nearly
This
can

doubling when
only
indicate for

is reduced kinetic

fivefold.
of
a

that the
a

energy

given mass
more

of the gas gas is

given temperature
But the laws

is greater the of mechanics of

a

the
to

compressed.
that the
mean

appear

enjoin
shall escape
mean

kinetic
at

energy

moving particle
The
that the

be

constant

any

given temperature.
is to suppose upon

only
the
con

from
mass

contradiction,then,
of
a

moving particlediminishes
gas. In other

densation

of the

words, many
up into

of the
atoms
or

mole sub-

cules

are

or dissociated,

broken

molecules.

The

idea

that

dissociation will be
to

should

be

favored

by diminishingthe volume
at must

pronounced by physicists,
our

first

blush, as

contrary

all

experience.
we are

But

it

be remembered of
a

that the circumstances

or fifty more

speaking
pressure, under

of, that
are

gas

under That
"

atmospheres

also unusual.

the

"

coefficient of the

expansion
volumes

constant

volume
with
a

when

by multiplied
of the volume

should

increase

decrement

is also

quite con

trary to ordinary experience;yet it undoubtedly takes place

in all gases under is
now

great pressure.

Again,
that

the the

doctrine

of

Arrhenius

generally accepted,
Clausius
as

molecular

Anticipated by

long

ago

as

1857;

and

by Williamson

in

1851.

248

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

conductivity of
sociation fused Here of

an

is proportional to electrolyte Now the molecular

the

dis
a

ions.

conductivity of
that of
a

is usually superior to electrolyte is

a

solution. is
ac

case,

then, in
increased

which

diminution

of volume

companied by
The have
to

dissociation.

truth be

is that

several

different kinds
the first
to

of

dissociation is the mole

may

distinguished. In
of the
a

place, there
chemical laws. This

dissociation cules under be

a

chemical

molecule

form

regular action

of chemical when

double

decomposition, as
to

iodhydric acid

is dis

sociated,according

the

formula

II;
or, it may of

be

simple decomposition,as
is dissociated

when
to the

pentachloride
formula

phosphorus

according

All

these

dissociations

require, according
elevated

to

the

laws

of

thermo-chemistry, an place, there

is the

temperature.
of
a

In the second

dissociation several This of the there

at

physicallypolymerous
molecules
to

molecule, that is,of physical attractions.

common

chemical
I
am

joined by
is
a

inclined

suppose and

concomitant bodies

heating
no

of solids of

liquids;

for in these with the

is all

increase

compressibility
the increase is the
must

temperature

comparable
third

with

of the

expansibility. But,
with
to

in the
are now

place, there

dissociation be

which be
a

we

concerned, which

supposed
or

throwing
the

off of unsaturated The

a

sub-mole
may,
as

cules I have

atoms

from

molecule.
to

molecule

be roughly said,

likened

solar system.

As

such,

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

249

molecules
internal

are

able

to

produce perturbationsof
in this way thrown
a

one

another's sub-mole about

motions;

and

a planet,i.e.,

cule,will occasionallyget
till it itself, which it
can

off and

wander

by
with

finds unite.

another Such

unsaturated dissociation the

sub-molecule

by perturbation will
of the

naturally be
one

favored

by

proximity

molecules

to

another. Let
us or now

pass

to

the consideration

of that

specialsub

stance,

rather

class of

substances,whose
and of

propertiesform
those
mean

the chief

subjectof botany

zoology,as truly as

of the silicates form the the

the chief

subject of mineralogy: I
Let
us

or life-slimes, protoplasm.

begin by cataloguing They

solid
or one

general characters
states

of

these

slimes.

and

all solid
not

exist in two
state pass
are

of

aggregation,a

nearly they
do

and from

liquidor nearly liquid state;

to the latter

but

the former

by ordinary fusion.
the

They

readily decomposed
nor

in by heat, especially any

liquid

state;

will

they

bear take

considerable

degree

of cold. little

All their vital actions

place at temperatures
This
extreme

very

below the point of decomposition.

is
one

instability
the chemical that

of

numerous

facts

which

demonstrate chemist the

complexity of protoplasm.
they
are

Every
than

will agree albumens. molecule suppose We

far

more

complicated
to

Now,
about
that
a

albumen thousand

is estimated

contain

in each
to

atoms;

so

that

it is natural thousands.

the that
car

protoplasms
while

contain

several

know

they are

chieflycomposed

of oxygen, of other

hydrogen,
elements it is of

bon, and
into
most

a large number nitrogen,

enter

bodies living
of

in small into

proportions; and
the

likelythat

these

enter

composition

protoplasms.

250

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

Now,
an so

since

the

numbers with

of chemical the number

varieties increase
of atoms per

at

enormous

rate
are

molecule,
of sub
or

that

there whose well

certainlyhundreds
contain that the the

of thousands

stances
we

molecules
suppose into
a a

twenty
number
or

atoms

fewer,

may

of

protoplasmic
Professor

substances

runs

billions

trillions. of
"

Cayley
a

has of

given

mathematical

theory
such

trees,"with
in that
seems

view

throwing
estimate

lightupon

questions; and

lightthe

of trillions It

(in

the

English sense)
that
an

immoderately
been but

moderate. defended

is true among but

opinion

has

emitted, and
one

that biologists, the

there is
of biolo

kind

of

protoplasm;
have

observations
that

gists,themselves,
which The from
a

almost

exploded

hypothesis,

chemical

standpoint appears
the

utterlyincredible. decidedly be
that

anticipationof
different

chemist

would

enough

chemical be formed

substances
to

having protoplasmic
not

characters differences whale-slime vasive

might
between
and

account,
and

only

for

the

nerve-slime

muscle-slime,between
minuter per and

but lion-slime, which

also for those different

variations

characterize

breeds

singleindividuals. Protoplasm,
but
when
even

when

quiescent,is,broadly speaking, solid;

in
an

it is disturbed

appropriate way,
external A
moner

or

some

times

spontaneously

without

disturbance, it
in this state within of its

becomes, broadly speaking, liquid.

is
seen

under
a

the

microscope

to

have

streams

matter;
The

slime-mould

slowly flows
from the This the

by

force

gravity.
and is not
at
one

starts liquefaction

point

of disturbance

spreads through
uniform in all

the

mass.

spreading,however,
contrary, it takes

directions; on

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

251

time

one

course,
mass,

at
a

another
manner

another, through
that
seems a

the

homo

geneous The
cause

in

little mysterious.
these motions

of

disturbance

being removed,
of

gradually (with higher kinds

and the slime
returns to

protoplasm, quickly) cease,

its solid condition. is

some a

The chanical

of protoplasm liquefaction

accompanied by
kinds exhibit form.

a a

me

phenomenon.
draw themselves

Namely,
up

ten

dency

to

into

globular

This The

with happens particularly

the contents
on some

of muscle-cells. of the
most

prevalent opinion, founded

exquisite
science
can

that experimental investigations

the

history of
of

show,
is due that
seem nomena

is
to
a

undoubtedly
osmotic factor in

that

the

contraction it must effect.

muscle-cells
allowed it does that
not

pressure;

and the

be
But
even

is
to

producing

me

that it

accounts satisfactorily

for the phe

naked
we

of muscular often
to

contraction; and
up in the increase
same

besides,even
In

slimes
seem some

draw

way.

this case,

recognize an

of

the takes

surface-tension.

In

cases, too, the

reverse

action

place,extraordinary
surface-tension
were a

pseudopodia being put forth,as

diminished of in spots.
no

if the
a

Indeed, such
to

slime

always
this

has

sort

skin, due
way
at

doubt

and surface-tension,
a

seems

to

give

the

point
or

where

pseudopodium

is put

forth.

Long-continued
the

frequently repeated liquefactionof

an

protoplasm
we

results in call

obstinate
the

retention other

of the solid

state, which

fatigue. On
much

hand,
the

repose

in this state, if not These fiability. The life-slimes

are

too

prolonged, restores important

functions.

lique-

both

have, further,the peculiar property

grow; their

of

growing.

Crystals also

growth, however,

con-

252

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

sists

merely

in

attractingmatter
fluid. To
suppose

like their the

own

from

the

circumambient of the
same

growth of protoplasm
this substance
to

nature, would

be

to

suppose

be
food

spontaneously generated
is in solution. is but
a

in

copious supplies wherever

must

Certainly, it
chemical
not

be

granted
that

that is

protoplasm
no reason

substance, and
be formed

there

why

it should

syntheticallylike
Clifford has

any shown

other

chemical
we

substance.

Indeed,

clearly
it is
so

that

have
to

overwhelming
that such

evidence is
as

that

formed.

But

say

formation is

regular and
matter. to

frequent as
It is pose
more

the assimilation
consonant

of food the

quite another

with

facts of observation is formed of the

at

sup of

that assimilated

protoplasm
the influence in its

the instant

under assimilation,

protoplasm
preserves

already

present.

For

each with

slime

growth

its distinc

tive characters nerve-slime and

wonderful

truth, nerve-slime

growing
grow in Now

muscle-slime

muscle-slime,lion-slime
of breeds in the and
even

and ing lion-slime, dividual characters

all the varieties

being preserved
there
are

growth.

it is too much of

to suppose

billions of different kinds there is food. increases

about protoplasm floating The

wherever

frequent liquefactionof protoplasm

of

its

power

food; assimilating
in

so

much

so,

indeed, that it is
it possesses this

questionablewhether
power. The

the

solid form

life-slime wastes
not

as

well

as

grows; its

and

this too

takes

place chieflyif Closely

exclusivelyin
with

liquidphases. reproduction;
and is

connected

growth
a

is

though

in

higher

forms

this is

function,it specialized
is

true universally

that wherever

there

protoplasm,there is,

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

253

will be, or
of
seems

has

been in

a a

power

of

reproducing

that

same

kind

protoplasm
to

separated organism.
union of two sexes;

Reproduction
it is not

involve
that

the

though

demonstrable
Another habits. taken in the the
same

this is

always requisite.
of the

physical property
The
course

protoplasm spread
of

is that of

taking

which

has liquefaction
to likely

in the past is rendered

thereby more
is
no

be taken

future; although path

there

absolute

that certainly

will be followed

again.
all these
of properties But the
one

are Very extraordinary,certainly,

protoplasm;
which is We has

as

extraordinary as indubitable.
to be

next

mentioned, while equallyundeniable,

It is that that

more infinitely

wonderful.

protoplasm
of

feels.

have

no

direct evidence

this is true kinds

protoplasm
more

and universally, others. But

certainly some
is
a

feel far

than that all

there

fair

analogical inference
feels but

protoplasm feels.
functions Such
to
are a

It not

only

exercises

all the

of mind. the

propertiesof protoplasm.
of the
account

The

problem
of

is

find

hypothesis
which

molecular for

constitution these

this

compound
and all.

will

properties,one

Some

of them

are

obvious of the
are

results of the

com excessively

plicatedconstitution complicated
cule ways forces
as

protoplasm unstable;
may

molecule. and

All very mole

substances thousand

plainlya

of several into
are

atoms

be

separated
the

in many chemical

two

parts in each

of which

polar

very

nearly saturated.
molecules
at

In the
must

solid

protoplasm,
to

in other
as

the solids, it were in

be

supposed
as

be

moving

orbits, or,

least,so

not

to

wander

254

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

indefinitely.But
reason

this solid cannot

be

melted, for the

an

same

that starch cannot insufficient break

to

be melted; because
the
up

amount

of is
to

heat

make them

entire

molecules and
cause

wander
them
one

sufficient to form
new

completely
But
not

and is

simpler molecules.
if it be of

when

of

the
out

molecules

disturbed,even

quite

thrown

of its orbit at dred

atoms

sub-molecules first,
are mean

perhaps
it.
as

several will

hun
soon

each
same

thrown

off from energy

as

These

acquire

the

kinetic several

the

others,and,
They
will

therefore, velocities naturally begin

a

times and and in

great.

to

wander,
molecules
one

wandering will perturb

cause

great many
behave

other

them

in their turn mole

are wan

to

like the be

deranged. originally
up, that
even

So many
that

cules will thus

tact

broken

those

in

will about modern

no

longer be freely.
chemists

restrained is the

within orbits, but will

usual condition for in of
a

der
as

This

liquid,

understand

it;

all electrolytic

liquidsthere
But this
on

is considerable process

dissociation. the

necessarily chills
of the the heat of

substance,

not

merely
but

account
more

chemical of

combination, particles
must

still

because

number
mean a

separate
energy

the being greatly increased,

kinetic

be is

less.
not at

The
once

substance
restored. attractions

being
Now

bad the

conductor, this heat

particlesmoving
them have of in the time
to

more

slowly, the effect,and

But their

between the

take

they approach

condition found

equilibrium.
restoration the

dynamic equilibrium is

of the

solid

takes condition,which, therefore, is not

place, if

disturbance When
a

kept

up.
most condition,

body

is in the solid

of its mole-

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE at least,

255 at

cules must

be

moving

at the same

rate,or,

certain
not

regularsets
be
must

of rates; otherwise The distances

the orbital motion

of
a

would

preserved. always
be

neighboring molecules
and
a

kept between
value. be thrown But into

certain maximum

certain

minimum

if, without
a

absorptionof
dis

heat, the body

tances

the liquidcondition, will be far

more

of

molecules neighboring
an

unequally
The

and distributed,

effect upon

the virial will result.

must liquefaction
no

of protoplasm upon chilling taken

to
so

its

also be doubt be

into account.

The

ordinary effect will

and with that the

increase that the

the cohesion
mass

surface-tension,
But in

will tend

to draw

itselfup.
so

special

cases, the virial will be increased tension will be diminished

at

much

that the surfacethe

pointswhere
aid in those

temperature

is first restored. and eral the tension fluid

to

In that case, the outer

at other

film will

give way
gen

places will
out at

causing the

be

poured

points, forming
then

pseudopodia.
When
a

the

protoplasm

is in

liquidstate, and
mass

only,

solution of food

is able to penetrate its

by

diffusion.
so

The the and

protoplasm food, like

unsaturated
same

is then

and considerablydissociated;
matter.

is

all dissolved

If then food

the

separated
to

sub-molecules

of the

happen

be

of the

chemical may form

speciesas
with

sub-molecules other

of the proto of the that

plasm, they protoplasm

when

unite
new

sub-molecules
such
a

to

in molecules,

fashion
more

the solid state

is

resumed, there may

there
were

be

mole
It

cules of

protoplasm

than

at

the

beginning.

is like the

jackknifewhose
and

blade and

handle, after having

found and

been

lost severally
to

replaced,were
knife.

put

to

gether

make

new

256
We and have
seen

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

that

protoplasm

is chilled

by liquefaction,
the heat

that this

bringsit back
This

to the solid

state,when

is recovered. in the may their heat

case

series of

operationsmust
even or

be very

rapid

of nerve-slime for the

and

of

muscle-slime,and
of

account

unsteady

vibratorycharacter
takes

action. of

Of

course,

if assimilation is is

place, the

which combination,

is gained. probably trifling,

On

the other

hand,
of

if work

done, whether
take

by
In

nerve

or case

by
of

muscle, loss
the the

energy mode

must

place.

the

muscle, the

by

which is

the

instantaneous
out.

part of
If when less

fatigueis brought about

contracts

easilytraced

the muscle than

it be under

stress,it will contract

there will be work
a

it otherwise
an

would

do, and

loss of heat.

It is like in water lift

a

engine using

which the

should

salt by dissolving the solution

to

and

contraction

during

weight, the
But the

salt

being recovered
of A

afterwards

by

dis do
to

tillation. with do in

major part
of forces. hour his

fatiguehas nothing to
man

the correlation
a

must

labor draws

hard

quarter of
heat
to

an

the work
a

which

from

him

enough time,he

cool

body by

singledegree.

Mean
extra

will be of

getting heated,he

will be

pouringout
he

products

combustion, perspiration, etc., and

blood
at
an

will be
minute

driving the
tubes with
at

accelerated
Yet

rate

through

great expense.

all this will have

littleto do

his

fatigue.

He

may

sit

quietlyat
at

his table

writing,
in
a

no doing practically

physicalwork
This

and yet all,

to

few the had

hours

be

terribly fagged.

seems

be
not

owing

to

deranged sub-molecules
time such time
to

of the nerve-slime

having

settle back

into their proper

are so

combinations.
as

When be from

sub-molecules
to

thrown much

out,
waste

they

must

time, there is

of material.

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

257

In order and

that

sub-molecule into
not
a

of food broken

may

be

thoroughly
of

firmly assimilated
necessary

molecule have

proto

plasm, it is
the
at

only

that it should

precisely
be be

right chemical

composition,but
at

also that

it should should

the right spot precisely in

the

right time
with
are

and

moving

preciselythe right direction

If all these conditions than
comes

preciselythe
it fulfilled,

right velocity.
will be
more

not

looselyretained
every time it

the round

other

parts of the

molecule; and
in which that it
was

into the situation the other

near

drawn and
to

to in,relatively

parts of
to

molecule

such

others

as

were

enough

be factors in the thrown the

out

action,it will be in specialdanger of being

when
a

again. Thus,
takes

of partialliquefaction
to

protoplasm

place many

times

about

the

same

extent, it will,each
cules that
were

time, be pretty nearly the

in that
are now same

same

mole
out.
as

last drawn

thrown way, which

same

They

will be thrown of

out, too, in about

the

to

direction position,
were

motion,

and

in velocity, in about thrown of their the

they
course

drawn the
ones

in;

and

this will be them very

that

last before for the their not

were cause

out.

Not

ex

actly,however;
off
so

being

thrown
con ac

easilyis

having

fulfilled the

preciselythe
of habit

ditions counted

of stable

retention. with it its

Thus,

law

is

for,and

peculiar characteristic

of not

acting with exactitude.

It the
seems

to

me

that this
or

of habit,aside explanation has falsity,

a

from
as an

question of its truth

our

certain

value

addition to

littlestore of mechanical habit.

or

examples
far
as

of actions

analogous to
either statical

All the

others,so
forces

know,

are

else involve

which, taking only

the

258
sensible It is sand The
a a so

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

motions with

into

account, violate the law

that
wears

of

energy.

the stream
to

its

own

bed. and

Here, the
left there.

is carried law

its most forbids

stable

situation when

of energy stable
so

this; for

anything reaches
will be
at

position of
maximum,
rest

equilibrium,its
it
can

momentum to

that
an

according
situation.

this law all the

only

be

left at

in

unstable

In

statical and that

illustrations, too, things are

left there. A

brought

into certain

states

garment

receives

folds and This

keeps them;
failure to

is,its
back for

limit of is

is elasticity
an

exceeded. violation

spring

again

apparent
will not due
to
even

of the law

of energy; of

the

substance be

only
an

not

spring

back

itself

(which might reached)

is but
to

unstable
so

equilibrium being
an

will not it.

do

when

impulse James

that way
"

applied

Professor Accordingly,
. . .

says,

the

phenomena
. . .

of habit

are

due

to the

of plasticity
means

the
the

materials."

of Now, plasticity limit of

materials

having

of

low

elasticity.(See
But

the

Century

Dictionary, under
tion of

solid.)
here

the hypothetical constitu

involves
no

protoplasm
and The

proposed

forces law
an a

but of

attractions energy.
out atom

repulsions strictlyfollowing the

here, that is,the throwing of
a

action in

atom
new

of its orbit into

to

molecule,and
not

the
same

entering of
is orbit,
may

nearly,but
the

quite the
actions

somewhat

similar
to take

molecular
a

which

be

supposed elasticity.
out
new

placein
in that

solid strained
case

beyond

its limit of
must

Namely,
of their orbits.

certain

molecules

be

thrown into

to orbits,

settle down

again shortly after

resembles

In

short,the plasticsolid

protoplasm
a

in

being partiallyand

temporarily liquefiedby

slight me-

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

259

chanical
has

force.
a

But

the

taking

of
to

set

by

solid
a

body habit,

but

moderate
as

resemblance
characteristic
want

the

taking of
of the

inasmuch
inexactitude marked
at

the
and

feature
deter

latter,its
is not
so

of

complete
it
can

minacy,

in the

former,if

be said to be present there,

all. The t^uth is that

though
on

the

molecular

explanation side, there

of

habit
be
no

is pretty vague doubt

act too

the

mathematical of
atoms

can

that

systems

having polar
and the

forces

would is
even

in substantially
to satisfactory

that manner,

explanation
of
an

suit the convenience be urged fairly result from

to

advo the
me

cate

of

tychism.
of

For

it may may

that since
a

phenomena
chanical

habit

thus

purely
suppose

arrangement,
a

it is unnecessary

that But

habit-takingis
one

primordial principleof

the universe.

fact remains

unexplained mechanically, which

of

concerns

not

only the facts

habit,but

all

cases

of actions

appar

ently violatingthe
nomena

law

of energy;

it is that

all these

phe

depend
and
means

upon
same

aggregations of
condition how and could
state

trillions of molecules and it is

in

one no

the

neighborhood;
have all been any

by
and

clear
same

they

brought

left in the But

place

and

by

conservative
as

forces.
as

let the the

state

mechanical
of

explanation be
it supposes

perfect
presents
For it
are

it may, of

things which

evidence shows alike.

us

primordial habit-taking tendency.

because of

like things acting in like ways

those who insist
on

they

Now,

the

doctrine

necessity
is
en

will for the most

part insist that the physicalworld

Yet say that law involves
an

tirelyindividual. ality.
Now
to

element

of

gener gen-

generalityis primordial,but

260
,

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

eralization

not, is like saying that

not.

diversityis primordial logic upside

a

but
any

diversification

It

turns

down.

At

rate, it is clear that nothing but

to

principleof habit,
infinitesimal chance that
can

itself due

the

growth by

habit

of

an

tendency
span

toward chasm

is habit-taking,

the

only bridge
of

the
cosmos

between
and
a

the

chance-medley

chaos

and

the

of order

law.
molecular

I shall not
nomena

attempt

explanation of
that would

the

phe
sub main

of

reproduction,because
carry

require a
from my

sidiary hypothesis,and object. Such be,

not

me

away

phenomena, universallydiffused though they depend

all is to upon

appear find

to

specialconditions; and
has the

we

do

that

protoplasm
be said of

reproductive powers.
property
of

But

what

feeling?
mechani The
no

If

consciousness cal is constitution

belongs to
is this
a

all
to

protoplasm, by
be accounted

what

for? is

slime

nothing but

chemical its

compound.
formed

There

inherent

in impossibility

being

in synthetically and of if it
were

the labora
so

tory,

out

of its chemical

elements;

made,

it would No

present all the characters

would

natural
to

protoplasm.
admit element this of

doubt, then, it
be

feel.

To

hesitate what

would the

puerile and

By ultra-puerile. then, would

be evaded unless

molecular
This

arrangement,

that
or we

feeling be

caused?

question cannot

pooh-poohed.
are

does feel;and Protoplasm certainly

a

to

accept
from
at

weak

dualism,the property

must

be shown

to arise

some

peculiarityof the mechanical

to

system.
laws of

Yet

the

tempt

deduce
so

it from

the

three

mechanics,

ap

plied to

never

ingenious a
It
can

mechanical
never

would contrivance,

obviouslybe

futile.

be

explained,unless

we

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

261

admit forms
nomena

that of

physical events

are

but But

degraded
once

or

undeveloped
the

psychical events.
of matter of
are

grant that
of the it

phe

but upon

the

result and

sensibly com
remains
to
some

plete sway explain why slightextent mind,

habits the

mind,

only

to

in

protoplasm
up,
so

these

habits

are

broken

that

according to

the

law

of

in that

specialclause

of it sometimes

called the prin intensified. broken

of
a

becomes cipleof accommodation,9 feeling

the
manner

Now

in which

habits

generally get
in the
as are

up

is this.

Reactions

usually terminate
continues habits with

removal

stimulus;
is pres

for the excitation

ent.

long as

the stimulus ways of of

Accordingly,
are

general
removal

behavior
But occur,

which when the

associated

the

stimuli. fails to

the

expected

removal and

of the

stimulus

excitation take

continues

increases,and
tend
never

non-habitual the habit.

reactions

place;

and that

these
matter

to

weaken does

If,then, we
laws with

suppose

obey
are

its ideal in will

absolute
fortuitous

but precision,

that

there

almost

sensible

departures

from

these regularity, effects. But

produce, in general, equally minute

proto
it is the

plasm

is in

an

excessivelyunstable

condition;and
near

characteristic of unstable

equilibrium,that
may

that

point

excessively minute
effects.

causes

large produce startlingly departures

are so

Here, then, the usual

from

regularity
the

will be followed

by

others

that law

very

great; and

large
still of

fortuitous departures from further

to

produced,
that

will tend

break

up

the

laws, supposing

these

are

"

Physiologically,
. . . .

accommodation
it
means

means

the

breaking

up

of

habit.

Psychologically,
Part

reviving consciousness."

Baldwin,

Psychology,

III, ch. i.,"

5.

262

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

the

nature

of habits. fortuitous be

Now,

this

breaking up

of habit
to

and

renewed of The

spontaneity will,according
an

the law

mind,

accompanied by

intensification of

feeling.
un

nerve-protoplasm is,without
of any kind

doubt,

in the

most

stable condition
there Thus mechanical the
we

of matter; the
most

and

consequently,

resultingfeelingis
see

manifest.
no

that

the life.

idealist On

has

need

to
a

dread

theory of

the contrary, such

a

theory,
as

is fully developed, its

bound

to^call in
Wherever

idealism tychistic

indispensable adjunct. there,in

is but the
same

chance-spontaneity
In

is found,

proportion,feelingexists.
aspect of that which
showed that real

fact,chance

the outward

within

itself is feeling. I long ago

consists thing-ness, in which
a was

or existence,

in
no

regularities.So, that primeval regularitywas

it
was mere

chaos

there

was

nothing, from
zero;

physical aspect.
an

Yet

not

blank in the

for there with

a

of intensity all that

or we

consciousness
ever

there
as

comparison

which

feel is but off

a

strugglingof
force of law

molecule
an

two

to

throw

little of the

to

endless

and

innumerable

of diversity

chance

utterlyun

limited.
But after
some

atoms

of the from

protoplasm have happens

thus become
next
no

partially emancipated
To understand is
so

law, what
to

to them?

we this,

have

remember the

that action

mental of

tendency
as

easily strengthened by
to take

habit

is the

tendency

habits.

Now,
in
or are

in the

higher kinds
not

of

the protoplasm, especially,

to
one

atoms

question have

only long belonged

ticular
mass were

molecule

another

of the par before

of slime

of which

they

parts; but
a

that, they

constituents

of food

of

protoplasmic con-

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

263
been
that

stitution.
lose habits the stimulus

During
and is
to

all this
recover

time, they have

them

liable to
when tend
atoms
to

again;
the

so

now,

removed,

and do
so

foregone
case

habits of is such
so

reassert

themselves, they

in the

with that that In

great promptness.
there is
the

Indeed, the
the

return

prompt

nothing
of law

but

to feeling

show

conclusively

bonds

have

ever

been

relaxed.

short, diversification
wherever

is the

vestige of chance-spon
chance

taneity;and
must

is increasing, there diversity the other

be

operative. On
must

hand, wherever
But

uniformity
ac so

is

habit increasing, take

be
an

operative.

wherever

tions much

place

under there is the

established

there uniformity,
the mode I
am

as feeling

may
manner

be takes

of

sense

of

reaction.

That

in which

led to define
of conscious

the relation between

ness

the fundamental

elements

and

their

physical equivalents.
to

It remains

consider

the
to

physical relations
reflect that

of

general
has
no

ideas.
existence whatever
matter.

It may

be well here
as a

if matter

except

of mind, specialization

it follows

that

affects matter But

all mind and
more

according
is
acts
or

to

regular laws

is itself

directlyor
in
a more

indirectlyconnected
or

with
so

all matter, all mind

less of

regularway;
the
nature

that

less be
a

partakes
mistake

of the

matter.

Hence,
the

it would

to

conceive
as

of

and psychical

physical aspects Viewing

of
a

of matter

two

aspects

distinct. absolutely

thing from
and

the

con outside,

sideringits
it things,

relations
as

action

reaction
it from

with the

other

appears

matter.

Viewing
as are

inside,
as we

looking at

its immediate These

character
two

it feeling, combined

appears when

consciousness.

views

264remember that

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

mechanical

laws

are

nothing

but

acquired
ten

habits,like dency
is
to

all the

of mind, including the regularities that this action

take
but

and habits,itself; and generalization, But

of habit

nothing
the

is nothing generalization the

but

spreading of feelings.
appear

question is,how

do

generalideas
The each their

in the molecular of
a

theory of protoplasm?
a

consciousness action of that

habit

involves
atoms

general idea.
get thrown
all the
out

In of

habit

certain

and orbit,

replaced by

others. that
are

Upon

different

occasions
are an one

it is different atoms from of

a

thrown of

but they off, and there is

analogous
inward

physical point
their

view,

sense

being analogous. Every

there is
a more a or

time less

of the associated
sense

feelings recurs,
are

vague

that

there

others, that
this that

it has

general
is. We

and character,

of about

what hold the

general character
in

ought not,
acts

think, to
than

protoplasm

habit

never

in any the

other

particularway
be
a

suggested above.
of

On

contrary, if habit
be

primary property
as a

mind,
We

it must
can

equally
refuse

so

of

matter,
that is
a

kind

of mind. chance

hardly

to

admit

wherever

motions

have

there general characters,

to

tendency

for this gener

a

alityto spread and

idea is
a

perfectitself.

In that case, which

general
accom

certain

modification

of consciousness relation

panies
actions. The

any

regularityor

general

between

chance

consciousness

of

general idea

has

certain it passes

"

unity
from
to

of the
one a

ego,"
to

in

it,which
It
a

is identical when

mind person;

another.

is,therefore, quite analogous

person is

and, indeed,

only

particularkind oj Speculative

of

general idea.

Long

age,

in the

Journal

MAN'S

GLASSY

ESSENCE

265
out

Philosophy (Vol. II, p. 156),

is

pointed

that

person

nothing
were,

but

symbol involving a general idea;

nominalistic the unified upon
to

but
see

my

views every

then, too
has

enable

me

to
a

that

general idea

of livingfeeling

person.

All that of
a

is necessary, is that the in close

we can

this

theory, to
which
to

the

existence

person be

out of feelings

he is constructed influence which

one an

should

enough
draw
to

connection
a

other.

Here

consequence

it may

be

possible to
be the case,

submit there

experimental test.
be
men

Namely,
like

if this
con

should of

something
who
are

personal
and when
as a

sciousness

in bodies

in intimate that
so

in the

tenselysympathetic

communion. been
a

It is true carried

generalization of feelinghas
clude
sense, have
cease. no mere a

far

to

in

all within has less been

person,

stopping-place,in
further
we

certain

attained;

and But

will generalization
not

character. lively

must

think

it will
are

Esprit de corps, national

sentiment, sympathy,
can

metaphors.
of

None

of any

us more

realize fully than is

one

what

the

minds cells law

corporationsare,
know what

of my

brainBut the per

can

the whole
to

brain
the

thinking.

of

mind

clearlypoints
there
are

existence

of such

and sonalities, if they

were

many

ordinary observations
and

which,

examined critically
as

supplementedby special promise,give

upon half
a

experiments, might,
dence

first appearances of such

evi

of the influence It is often

greater persons
that
on one

indi
dozen

viduals.

remarked
one

day

people, strangers to
to do
one

will another,

take

it into their heads it be

a

and

the

same

strange deed, whether

or an

physi
the

cal

experiment,a crime,
young

act

of

virtue.

When

thirtythousand

people of

the

society for

Christian

266

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

Endeavor

were

in

New

York,
of
sweetness

there

seemed

to

me

to

be

some

mysterious
is

diffusion

and

light.
it

If

such

fact

capable

of

being

made

out

anywhere,
always
prayers

should

be

in

the

church.

The

Christians

have

been

ready
in common, with

to

risk

their

lives

for

the

sake

of

having

of

getting
energy,

together
and

and

praying
for their

simultaneously
common

great
"

especially
of Christ's

body,
here
in

for

the

whole

state

church

militant

earth,"
have been

as

one

of

the

missals

has

it.

This

practice
for

they
many in

keeping Surely,
in that
a

up

everywhere, ought Christ,"

the action
to

weekly,
have

centuries.

personality
bride
of

developed
call

that

church,
there
is
a

"

as

they
of

it,
and

or

else

strange

break

in

mind,
mistaken.

shall

have

to

acknowledge
societies for

my

views

are

much

Would

not

the

psychical clouds,
than in in

research

be

more

likely
of such

to

break

through personality,
upon the

the

seeking

evidences

corporate

seeking
should

evidences

of

telepathy,

which,

same

theory,

be

far

weaker

phenomenon?

V.

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE1

AT

FIRST

BLUSH.

COUNTER-GOSPELS

PHILOSOPHY,

when

just escaping
the

from

its

golden pupa-skin,
of the

mythology, proclaimed
universe
is poor love. hate
as

great evolutionary agency

since
us

to

be

Love.

Or,

this say
set

pirate-lingo, English,
Eros,
the exuberance-

in such-like

words, let Empedocles

Afterwards,
the two

up of the

passionate-love and
universe.
In any of
some

co-ordinate is the
an

powers word.
to

passages, in

kindness it has

But

certainly, in
senior love whose
can

sense

which

opposite,

be

partner
attain.

that

opposite,is

the highest position that

Never
views

in theless, the ontologicalgospeller,

were

days

those

familiar all

topics,
have

made been

the

One
out

Supreme
of
to

Being,
to

by
be

whom

things

made
can

nothing,
hate?

cherishing-love. What,
mind,
were

then,
the

he of

say the

Never if he

at

this time, what

at

scribe

apocalypse,
a

John, stung

length by persecution into

of

rage of may
sane

unable

to

distinguish suggestions
so

evil
of rather

from

visions
to

heaven,
have

and

become The
or

the

Slanderer
is

God

men, the
to

dreamed.

question
to

what in that

John
out
seems

thought,
his idea aimed whether

ought

have His of love

thought,
statement

order

carry

consistently.
at

God
we

is love
cannot

that

saying
bears
us

Ecclesiastes
or

that
"

tell

God
can

hatred.
We

Nay,"
know

says and

John,
have

"we
1

tell, and
January,

very
1893.

simply!

The

Monist,

267

268

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

trusted There
men.

the is In
no

love

which

God

hath it

in
means

us.

God God

is love." loves
"

unless logicin this, the

that had We the

all is

preceding paragraph,
is
as no

he

said,
are

God
under

lightand

in him

darkness is

at

all."

to

stand, then,that
so

darkness
are mere

merely

defect of

of

light,

hatred

and

evil and

imperfect stages
This
"

ayawrj

and

ayaOov,

love

loveliness.

concords God
sent

with
not

that the

utterance

reported

in
to

John's Gospel: judge

saved. believeth the

Son

into the world

world; but
He
not

that

the world
on

should
not

through him
he And
. . .

be

that

believeth been that

him

is al

judged:

that

hath

judged
the

ready.
come

this is the and that

judgment,
men

light is
rather

into the

the

world,
That

loved

darkness
no

than
on

light."

is to say,

God

visits

punishment affinity
a

them;

they punish themselves,by

their natural

for the defective. of which

a as

Thus, the love that God

is the

is,is
Satan

not

love be

hatred

contrary;
it is
a

otherwise

would

co-ordinate
an

power;

but of

love which Anteros

"

embraces yea,
even

hatred
needs
no

imperfect stage
and hatefulness

it,an
as

hatred

its

object.
which
can

For he

self-love is
loves
must

love; so
defect
which of

if God's

self is
a

love, that luminary

be
that

love; just as
would
"

light up

only

otherwise

be dark.
is
no

Henry James,
very in

the Swedenfinite
or

borgian, says:
creaturelylove
for
more

It

doubt
own

tolerable
to love

to love one's
to

another,
but

another be in

his

conformity

one's with
must

self: the be

nothing Love,

can

flagrant contrast
ex

creative reserved and

all whose for what

tenderness

vi termini

only

is most intrinsically This is from

hostile bitterly and

negative to
an

itself."
on

Substance

Shadow:

Essay

the

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

269
not

Physicsof Creation.
with

It is he and

pity he
able

had

filled his pages

of the

as things like this,

was

easilyto do, instead

scolding at physics
of

his

reader
was

at

until people generally, I must

creation what

well-nigh forgot.

deduct,

however,
make

from

justwrote:
as

obviously no
as one

genius could
discloses

his every

sentence

sublime

which

for the The

problem
movement

of evil its of love

solution. everlasting
is
at circular,
one

and

the and

same

impulse projecting creations ing

them into

into This

independency
seems

draw when

harmony.

complicated
in the

stated so; but it is fullysummed

we

up does

simple

formula say,

call the

Golden

Rule.

This

not, of course,

Do

everything possible to gratify the egoisticimpulses of

it says,

others, but

Sacrifice your

own

perfection to
must
or

the
mo

perfectionment of
ment

your

neighbor.
the

Nor

it for

be confounded

with

Benthamite,

Helvetian, or

Beccarian
number. sons;
not

motto, Act
Love
to

for the directed

we

greatest good of the greatest

to

is not

abstractions
nor

but

to

per of

persons
own

do

not

know,
our

to

numbers

people,but
"

to our

dear

ones,

family and neighbors.

whom
we

Our

neighbor," we

remember,
but

is

one

live near,

not

locallyperhaps, Everybody
can see

in life and the

feeling.
of St.

that

statement

John

is the that self-

formula

of
comes

an

evolutionaryphilosophy, which only

from from the

teaches say

growth

love, from
ardent for

"

I will not
to

but sacrifice,

impulse
example,

fulfil another's
an

highestimpulse. Suppose,
that for interests
as me.

that I have It is my
a

idea

It is my

creation. it is

creature;
I

shown

in last

Jury's Monist, myself

in

little person. It is not

love it; and

I will sink

perfecting it.

2yo

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

by dealing out
I
as can

cold

justiceto

the

circle of my

ideas

that

make

them

grow,

but by cherishingand
in my

tending them

I would from

the flowers

garden.

The

philosophy we
way mind

draw

John's gospel
as

is that

this isthe
as

de^
mind,

velops; and

for the cosmos, it of

only so"far

it yet is

anoTsb

has

is life,

Love, capable of furtherjeypjution.

loveliness
makes it in

reoognlzSig germs
warms

the

hateful,gradually
That of my is the essay
sort

it into

and life, every

see

lovely.

of evolution Law

which
must

careful student
that

The

of Mind,

synechism
now

calls for. grave, what other will be

The
and
we

nineteenth
all

century is
to

fast

sinking into the

and
to

begin

review
to

its

doings
as

think with It for

character centuries

it is destined in

bear future

compared
historians.

the

minds the

of

called, I
economy its

guess, has
more

Economical

Century;

political
of

direct has
any

relations with
other of

all the branches

activity than
has

science.

Well, political
too.

economy

its formula the

redemption,
of

It is this: the

Intelligencein prices,the
of all the

service

greed
most

ensures

justest

fairest contracts, the

enlightened conduct
leads
to

dealings between
food in

men, and

and

the

summum

bonum,
whom?
not
mean

plenty

perfect
master
one

comfort.

Food

for do

Why,
to

for the that

greedy
this is

of

intelligence.I

say

of the

legitimateconclu
of which

sions of I

political economy,
But

the scientific character the

fully acknowledge.

study

of

doctrines,them generalizations
has

selves true, will often

temporarily encourage
the

extremely false,as
necessitarianism. tention

study
I say,

of

physics

encouraged
great at

What

then, is

that

the
our

paid

to

economical

questions during

century

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

271

has

induced and has of

an

exaggeration
unfortunate
a

of

the

beneficial of

effects of

greed
there
to

the

results which

sentiment, until unwittingly

elevation of

resulted

philosophy

comes

this,that greed
race a

is the in the of
one

great agent
evolution

in the

the human I open

and

of the

universe.
"

handbook

political economy,
at

the

most

typicaland
some

middling

I have

hand,
make
to

"

and
a

there find

remarks

of which

I will here thrown

brief

analysis.
to

I omit

qualifications, sops

Cerberus,phrases
serve

trappings which placateChristian prejudice,

from author and But reader I have alike the my

to

hide the

ugly

nakedness

of

greed-god.
enumerates

surveyed
to

position. The
action:

author

"three of of

motives

human

The The

love love

self;
a

limited class

having

common

interests and

feelingswith
The

one's

self;
at

love of mankind
at

large."
obsequious title is
Love! The class
"

Remark,
on

the outset, what love

bestowed
mo

greed,
"

"the In you

of self."
"

second

tive is love.

place of
have
a

limited

put

"

certain
"

persons,"and

fair
a

description. Taking
kind
some

class

"

in the old-fashioned In the

sense,
seems

weak
to

of love is described. haziness love of

as

sequel,there
of author is

be

to

the
at

delimitation

this motive. does

not

By
mean

the that

mankind subconscious

large, the

deep,

passion that perhaps

author

properly so called;but merely public-spirit,

than
to
a a

little more

fidgetabout pushing
estimate

ideas. worth

The of
an

proceeds
motives.

comparative

of the

these other

Greed, says
is not
so

he, but using, of

an

course,

word,

"

great

evil

as

is

commonly

sup-

272

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

posed.

Every

man

can

promote
he
can

his

own

interests
any
one

great deal
or else's,

more

than effectively
any
one

promote
his."

than
on

else

can

promote
the
more

Besides, as
a man

he the

remarks
more

another he
to
"

page, The

miserly
motive
"

is,
most

good
one

does. which

second

is the Love

dangerous
very
ness

society is exposed."
purer
source a

is all

pretty:
exists."

no

higher or
But

of human of

happi enduring

(Ahem!)
in

it is be

"source

injury,"and,
wiser. As What for

short, should

overruled We

by something
shall
see.

is this wiser

motive? rendered

it is publicspirit, way of

nugatory

by

the For

"

dif
ex

ficulties in the

its effective

operation."
upon
measure

ample,

it

might suggest putting checks

and
too

the of

fecundity repression
The hint

of the poor would be

the

vicious;and
the
case

"

no

severe," in

of criminals.
cannot to

is broad.
tures

But

unfortunately,you
measures,
man

induce

legisla
"

to take

such of

owing

the

pestiferous
It thus

ten

der that

sentiments

towards

man." is not
am

appears,
to

Benthamism, or public-spirit,
effective
tutor

strong enough
to
"

be

the

of

love, (I

skipping
over

another the
mo

page), which
tives which alone
we can
2

be handed must, therefore, animate

men

to

in the which
"

pursuit of wealth," in
"

which

and confide,

are

in the

highest degree
"

beneficent."

Yes,

in the

highest degree being

the
upon

without

ex

ception are

they

beneficent

to the

whom

all their
"

are blessings

poured out, namely,

the
a

Self, whose
wealth
as

sole inis

object," says
2

writer
have with
to

in
any

accumulating
respect
scientific for

'is his
such, who

How

can

writer

science,
is
"

capable of confounding
omy,

the
say

propositions of political econ

what

which

have

nothing

concerning

beneficent," such

brummagem

generalisations as

this?

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

273

dividual
holds

"

sustenance

and
some

enjoyment."
other motive man's
to

Plainly,the might
self to be in be
a a

author

the notion beneficent in

that
even sense.

higher

degree

for the He

paradox
his his I

wanting

good

seeks

gloze and

modify
see

doctrine; but he lets the perspicaciousreader

what

animating principleis; and

have

when, holding
time basis of
as

the

opinions
that
so

repeated, he
not

at

the

same a

acknowledges

cietycould
he

exist upon

intelligent greed alone,

one

simply pigeon-holeshimself opinions.

of He

of

the

eclectics of flavored

inharmonious with The

a

wants

his

mammon

soupgon

god.
accuse

economists

those

to

whom
a

the

enunciation

of their atrocious of
to

villainies communicates It may of

thrill of horror confess willingly in me,

being sentimentalists. having

some

be

so:

tincture since

sentimentalism French Revolution

"

God

be this

thanked!

Ever of

the

brought
not

leaning

thought
must

into

ill-repute,

and

altogether good
as

undeservedly, I
that

and admit, true, beautiful,

was,
as
"

great

movement

it has persons facts the

been

the

tradition of

to

picture thought
dition

sentimentalists and

incapable
in the eyes.

logical
tra
an

unwilling to
be classed

look

This that

may

with
at
an

French

tradition

Englishman English

says

godam
that

every

second talks that

sentence,
about
a
"

the Brit

tradition the of

American tradition
an

ishers," and
carries short the forms

American

Frenchman

etiquetteto

inconvenient survive
are was

extreme,

in

with

all those traditions who

use

which and
ears

simply
few and for

because far be

men

their
some

eyes

tween.

Doubtless
in

excuse

there

all those it

opinions

days

gone

by;

and

sentimentalism, when

274

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

was

the
a

fashionable of tears
over

amusement
a

to

spend

one's
on a

evenings
candleBut

in

flood

woeful

performance
a

litten stage, sometimes what

made

itself

little ridiculous.
an

after all is sentimentalism? the doctrine that

It is

ism,

doctrine,

namely,
the

great respect should

sensible and I heart.
entreat

be

paid

to

natural

judgments

of the

This the

is what
to

sentimentalism consider
most

preciselyis;
to contemn

reader

whether

it is not nineteenth

of all

blasphemiesthe
steadily
of Ter is

degrading.

Yet

the it

century has
the

contemned
ror. one

it,because
it did much.
so

brought

about

Reign

That of how the

is true.

the Still, of Terror has been with

an

whole
was

question bad;

The

Reign

very

but

now

Gradgrind
the face

banner of

this

century
to

long
pro

flauntingin
voke the very

heaven,
and

insolence
Soon
out
a

skies to scowl shake

rumble.

flash and
com

quick peal placency,

will

economists

quite

of in

their

too

late.

The
the

twentieth

century,

its latter upon in ruin the

as

half,shall surely see

social that

delugetempest
a

burst

order,
"

to

clear

upon

world

as

deep
into

greed-philosophy has

long plunged it

guilt.

No

post-thermidorianhigh jinks then!

So With gree,
a

miser
same

is

beneficent

power

in

community,
a

is he? de
a

the
you

reason

precisely, only
the

in

much

higher
to

might

pronounce takes it

Wall
from

Street
heedless

sharp

be

good angel, who likelyto guard

better unwary

money

persons

not

properly,who
who

wrecks

feeble

enterprises
lessons
to

stopped, and

administers

wholesome worthless
to

scientific men,
"

by passing
other you

checks my
saw

upon

them,
Master

as

you

did, the
when

day,

me,

millionaire your
way

in

glomery,

thought

you

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

275

to

using

my
to

process

without children who

paying

for

it,and
to

of of

so

be
their

queathing
father
at

your
"

something
a

boast

about,

and of

by

thousand
his

wiles puts money

own

the service

greed, in intelligent
in of his all

person.

Ber

nard that and his

Mandeville, private
proves

Fable

of

the

Bees, maintains public benefits,

proves with
no

vices

are descriptions

it, too, quite as cogently as

the miser. for
same

the economist
even

point concerning

He

argues, would

slight force, that

have existed. and In is

but the

vice

civilization has

never

it spirit,

been
that

strongly
of

maintained

to-day widely believed

and

all acts

charity and
to

benevolence, private
human
race.

public,go seriously

degrade the
The

Origin of Species

of

Darwin
to the

merely

extends of
con cause

views politico-economical
animal and

of progress
vast

entire realm
our

vegetable life. The

naturalists hold the

majority of
that the

temporary
of for

opinion

true

those

exquisite and
I
was a

marvellous

adaptations
used
to

of

nature

which, when

boy, men
are so

extol

the divine those

wisdom
of them

is that creatures that

crowded

together that

happen

to

have

the slightest advantage force unfavorable

to

those cation

less
or

pushing
even

into

situations

multipli
of
re

kill them

before

they

reach

the age

production.
vidualism is

Among

animals, the
as a

mere

mechanical

indi

vastly reenforced

power Darwin

making

for
on

good
his

by

the

animal's

ruthless greed.

As

puts it
he for

it title-page,

is the

strugglefor existence; and

Every individual
hindmost!
a

should

have
and
on

added

for his motto:

take the

himself,
sermon

the

Devil

Jesus,

in his

the Mount,

expressed

different

opinion.

276

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

Here, then, is
progress
comes

the

issue. every

The

gospel of Christ merging

On

says

that

from

individual

his individu other

ality in sympathy
the takes conviction of

with the

his

neighbors.

the

side,

nineteenth of every and

a

century

is that

progress him

place by

virtue

individual's

for striving

self with foot

all his he called

might
gets
the

trampling
to

his
so.

neighbor
This may

under
ac

whenever

chance of

do

curately be
Much I could
a

Gospel
on

Greed.
I have
not

is to be said
not

both
own

sides.

concealed,

conceal,my
will

passionatepredilection. Such
shock my scientific brethren. of

confession the

probably

Yet
some

I think, an strong feelingis in itself,

argument
of

weight
"

in
as

favor it may

of

the
be

agapastic theory
to

evolu
nor were

tion,
mal

so

far

presumed
Heart. without

bespeak

the it

judgment

of the

Sensible

Certainly,if

possibleto believe
that fact

in agapasm
an

it warmly, believing truth of the

would
At
on

be

argument
the

against the
warmth of

doctrine.
it should

any

rate, since
account
a

feelingexists,

every

be

candidly confessed; especially

onesidedness and
me on

since

it creates

to liability

my

part

againstwhich
on our

it behooves

my

readers

to be

severally

guard.
SECOND THOUGHTS. IRENICA.

Let

us

try
of is

to

define the

affinities of logical
as selection,

the

different

theories

evolution.
a

Natural

conceived

by

Darwin,

mode

of evolution

in which

the

only positive
moner

agent of change in the whole

is fortuitous variation. has
to

passage
secure

from advance

to
a

man

To

in

definite
that

direction

chance

be

seconded

by

some

action

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

277
or

shall hinder
that of

the

propagation
In
out

of

some

varieties

stimulate
it called, is

others.

natural

so strictly selection,

is the the

crowding

of the weak.

In

sexual

it selection,

attraction

of

beauty, mainly. published toward

since
"

The

Origin of Species was

1859.
most

the

end been
so

of the year
one as

The

preceding years
seasons,
are

1846 had
if extended
most

of

the

productive
we

or

to cover

the great book

the considering, in the The entire

pro of

ductive science

period
from its

of

equal length

history

beginningsuntil
is
one

now.

idea that chance of modern

"

.begets order, which

of the

corner-stones

physics (although Dr. point

in Mr. Peirce's

Carus

considers
at

it that

the

weakest

system,") was

time

put into

its clearest

light. Quetelet had

the

opened

the discussion
to

by

his

Letters
and

on

Application of
a

Probabilities which
to which

the

Moral

Political Sciencest
of that

work and

deeply impressed
Sir

the best minds had first drawn volume

a

day,

John
In

Herschel

general attention
of Buckle's

in Great

Britain.

1857, the
had of

History

of Civilisation
to the use

created this under

to
same

tremendous idea. very

sensation, owing
the
"

he made
"

Meantime,
name,

statistical method with brilliant

an

had,

that

been Dr.

applied John
the and

success

molecular

physics.
in

Herapath,
kinetical the

English
of gases

chemist, had

1847 outlined

theory

in his Mathematical excited Clausius win's had and been

Physics;
refreshed In in

interest

the

theory by
Dar

1856 by notable
summer

memoirs

Kronig.

the very had

most

preceding
before
the

publication, Maxwell
the first and

read

British

Association
on

important
was

of his researches the idea that

this

subject. The

consequence

that

278
fortuitous that
events

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

may

result in in which

physical law, and

laws which

further
to

this is the

way

those the
a

appear of

conflict with
are

the

principle of
taken

conservation

energy

to be

explained,had
were was

strong hold upon

of

the minds such

of all who

abreast inevitable

of the leaders that the

thought. By

minds, it

Origin of Species,whose
the
same

teaching was
to

simply

the

of application
"

principle
w

the of

explanation of

another

non-conservative be hailed

action,
wel

that comed.

organic development,
The

should

and

sublime
in

discovery of

the conservation

of energy

by Helmholtz
heat had

1847, and
and

that of the mechanical

theory of

by

Clausius

in 1850, by Rankine, independently, all those who

decidedly
to
sneer

overawed
at

might

have
a

been

inclined

physical science.
"

Thereafter

belated
names now

poet still harping upon

of

science peddling with

Mechanism All this for the

the
was

things
to
"

"

would

fail of his effect. very

known

be all, or
that

nearly so.

time, utilitari Gospel,

"

anism,

improved substitute feather; and

Dean among
was a

was

in its fullest vidualistic had led

to

natural

ally of

an

indi

theory. mutiny
and the

ManselFs the

injudiciousadvocacy
of had that Sir William

bondsmen of Mill

Hamilton,

nominalism the
some

profited ac
Darwin
was

cordingly; and leading men

the of
to

although
was sure

real science

day

to

give a
were sure

death-blow

to

sham-science the Darwinian of Mill.

of

Mill, yet there

which
were

several
to

elements the in

theory
Another

charm had been

followers
use

thing: anaesthetics

for thirteen

years.

Already, people'sacquaintance with

off very

had suffering that

dropped

much;
our

and times

as

consequence,
so

unlovely hardness

by which

are

contrasted

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

279

with
set

those

that

immediately preceded them, people

to

had

already
The

in,and

inclined

relish the

ruthless

theory.
I
am

reader if he any

would
were

quite mistake
to

drift of what
as

saying

understand

me

wishing
Mai

to

suggest that

of

those

things (except perhaps

What I
mean

thus) influenced hypothesis,while

pretty
ever

Darwin without

himself.

is that his

dispute one
while

of the

most

ingenious and
a

devised, and

argued
charm

with of

wealth

of

knowledge, a
above all with irresisti

a strength of logic, a

and rhetoric, that all

was

certain

magnetic genuineness
not

almost
to

ble, did
and
to
a

appear, mind years with

at

at first,
case

near

being proved;
now

sober

its ago;
was

looks the

less

hopeful

than

it did

twenty

but

favorable extraordinarily in

receptionit
to

met

plainlyowing,
which of the

large measure,
was

its ideas

being

those

toward

the age

favorably
it gave

because disposed,especially,
to

encouragement

the

greed-philosophy.
to

Diametrically opposed
theories which attribute other that form if
an

evolution
to

by chance,
an

are

those

all progress of egg

inward

necessary naturalists

or principle,

necessity. Many
is destined
to

have

thought

go

through
which

certain it is time
one

series of

from embryological transformations,

not to
same

perfectlycertain
almost

deviate,and
forms
same

if in

geological

exactly

the in

appear

successively,
pre

replacing another

the

order, the strong

was as

sumption
and

is that this latter succession

to

predeterminate So, Nageli,

from the for

certain

take

place
that the

as

the

former. follows

instance,conceives
law of motion of and

it somehow

first

peculiar,but
that

unknown,
must

molecular

constitution

protoplasm,

forms

complicate

28o

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

themselves

more

and after

more. a

Kolliker

makes has calls

one

form
ac a

generate another

certain

maturation he
to

been
himself but

complished. Darwinian,
all forms from
two
are

Weismann,
holds that

too, though
is due

nothing

chance,
of the

that

simple

mechanical

resultants noticeable

heredity
dif

parents.3
seek

It is very
to

that

all these
a

ferent sectaries cal

import
the

into their science

come

mechani their ob that the of

necessityto
do not of
or

which

facts that

under think

servation variation climate

are

point.

Those due

who geologists
to

species is

cataclysmic

alterations

of the chemical

constitution

of the air and

water

also

making

mechanical

necessity chief

factor

of

evolution.
Evolution

by sportingand

evolution

by

mechanical another. A

neces

sity are method,

the

conceptions warring against one

which of

third in

supersedes
Lamarck.

their

strife,lies enwrapped
to

theory

According

his

view,

all that
most

distinguishesthe rudimentary
or

highest organic
been

forms

from

the

has

brought

about

by

little hypertrophies

atrophies which
have been of

have

affected

individuals
to

early in

their

lives,and
a

transmitted

their

offspring. Such
the

transmission of

acquired

characters this is the

is of

general

nature

and habit-taking, within the is

representativeand
of the of
a

derivative mind. cal

physiologicaldomain

law

of

Its action

dissimilar essentially

to that

physi
of such The the

force; and

that is the secret

as

of the repugnance

necessitarians Lamarckians

Weismann

to

admitting its
that

existence.
some

further

suppose

although

of

am

happy
of

to

find

that

Dr.

Carus, too, ranks

Weismann

among

the

opponents

Darwin,

notwithstanding his flying that

flag.

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

281

modifications mechanical
tion
were

of form

so

transmitted

were

due originally

to

causes, the

yet the chief factors of their first produc

endeavor and the the

of straining

overgrowth

superinduced by exercise, togetherwith Now, endeavor,

since it is directed

oppositeactions.
an

toward

end,

is

es

sentiallypsychical, even scious; and

last paper, that the

though
due
to
a

it be

sometimes I

uncon

growth
a

as exercise,

argued

in my
to

follows

law

of

character

quite contrary

of mechanics. evolution
sentence

Lamarckian habit. those

to
"

is thus

evolution
off my

by

the force
while
one seems

of
of

That

slipped
function

pen social
me a

neighbors whose
an

in the

cosmos

be that of
it is oars,

was Interrupter,

asking
is
mere

question. Of

course, one's

nonsense.

Habit

a inertia, restingon

not

propulsion.
is such

Now
a

it is

energetic proor

jaculation (lucky there

hand the

word,

this

untried
in
new

might have typical

been

put to inventing one) by which

of Lamarckian evolution the

instances
are

elements them
tures to

of form take

first created.

Habit, however,
with

forces

practicalshapes, compatible
in the form of

the struc
and other
sus

and they affect,

heredity
energy

wise, gradually replaces the spontaneous

tains them. the with and

that
serves

Thus,
new

habit

plays

double also
to

part; it

to

establish

and features,

bring

them

into

harmony
animals will page
now or

the

general morphology and

which

function But

of the

plants to

they belong.
the

if the reader
a

kindly give himself

two, he will
coincides
see

trouble

of

turningback
of Lamarckian

that this account the

evolution action
of

with

general description of
he

the

love, to which, I

suppose,

yielded his

assent.

282

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

Remembering ing, too,

Lamarckian sciousness. It is
as

that

all matter

is

reallymind,
let
us

remember

the

continuity of mind,
evolution Direct takes
on can

ask

what

aspect
of
con

within

the

domain almost
a

endeavor

achieve
to

nothing,
to to

easy
as

by taking thought produce

an

add

cubit

one's

stature,
the
come.

it is to

idea

acceptable

any

of
to

Muses We

by merely strainingfor it,before

haunt the slow in vain the sacred of well the

it is and

ready

throne

of

Mnemosyne;
in their their of
an own

deeper workings
way, and without
we our

spirittake
Let

place
but

connivance. make
our

bugle sound,
oblation

may

then

sure effort, savor

for the altar of whatsoever this inward goes

to

divinityits

gratifies.Besides
of the
to

process,
to

there is the operation

up

environment, which
broken knows
us

break the

habits

destined

be

up that

and the

so

render

mind of of
a

lively. Every
routine of habit

body
makes

long

continuance
a

while lethargic, ideas.

succession Where is the

surpriseswonder
is
a

fullybrightensthe

there focus and

motion,

where

history is a-making, there

and the it has been of

of

mental

activity,
within slum per mind

said that the arts

sciences

reside but

temple
when

Janus, waking
it is closed.

when Few

that

is open,

bering
ceived

psychologists have
A

how

fundamental commissured It sinks mind

fact this is.

to

portion of
works

abundantly

other condition

portions
of
a

almost

mechanically.
But
or a

to

railway junction.

portion of

almost
a

a spiritual isolated, peninsula,

cul-de-sac, is like
are

railway
Where

terminus.

Now

mental

commissures
not

habits.
is
not

is they abound, originality

needed

and

found;
is
set

but

where

they
the

are

in

defect, spontaneity

free.

Thus,

first

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

283
is the

step in the Lamarckian

evolution
situations

of mind in which

puttingof
are

sundry thoughts into play.

As
to

they

free to
in

I have growth by exercise,

already shown,
in last

discussing Man's
Monist, what
at

Glassy Essence,
operandi
must

October's
to

its modus
a

be conceived

be,

least,until
been of

second

equally definite hypothesis

it consists of

shall

have asunder
new

offered.

Namely,
the
sort

the

flying

molecules, and
It

reparation of the parts by

of

matter.

is,thus, a

reproduction.
the

It takes

because place only during exercise,

activityof proto
which is its

plasm

consists

in

the

molecular

disturbance exercise

necessary

condition.

Growth
that

by

takes

place also
But the

in the mind.
most

Indeed,

is what

it is to learn. of
a

perfectillustration by being put

at
as first,

is the

development
The

philosophi

cal idea

into

practice.

conception which
into

appeared,
and

unitary,splitsup
new new

specialcases;
to

into each

of these

thought

must

enter

make

practicable

idea.

This

thought, however, follows conception; and place.

The thus

pretty closelythe model

a

of the parent takes of

homogeneous
this and

development
the
course

parallel
is

between

molecular

occurrences

apparent.
elements
Three fore
us;

Patient
in the modes

attention

will be called have

able

to

trace

all these

transaction of evolution

learning.
thus been

brought

be

evolution

by

fortuitous
evolution

variation,evolution

by
We

mechanical may
term

and necessity, them

by

creative love.

or tychasticevolution, tychasm,

anancastic
aga-

evolution,or
pasm.
The

anancasm,

and which
we

agapastic evolution,or
represent these
term
as

doctrines

severallyof

principalimportance,

may

anancastychasticism,

284

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

tkism, and

agapasticism.
absolute

On

the

other

hand

the

mere

propositions that
and
may

chance,

mechanical

necessity,
the cosmos,

the law receive three

of the

love, are
names

severallyoperative in
of

tychism, anancism,
are

and

agapism.
same

All

modes

of evolution

composed
them pass,

of the

general elements.
The

Agapasm
is here

exhibits
to

the most

clearly.
the the be off

good

result

brought by

first, by
upon

stowal

of spontaneous

energy the

the

parent

spring,and, second, by
the the that
row

of disposition about order bear it and

to to

the latter to catch thus

to

general general tychasm

a

idea

of

those In

subserve relation
me

purpose. and from is

a anancasm

express agapasm,

the let

bor

word

geometry.
of cubic

An curve;

ellipsecrossed
for
a

by
a curve

straightline
which is cut
cut

sort

cubic
a

is

thrice

by

straightline; now
and its associated the of

straightline straightline
across

might
a

the

twice ellipse

third

time.
not

with Still the ellipse have

straightline
a

it would

the characteristics

cubic.
no no

It would
true true

have,
wants;
has. so,

for

instance, no
it would

which contrary flexure, have

two

cubic cubic

and

nodes,
a

which

The

geometers say that it is

and
anancasm

degenerate cubic. Just degenerate

forms of

tychasm

are

agapasm. Men who seek

to

reconcile
that
a

the

Darwinian

idea

with the

Christianitywill

remark upon

evolution, like tychastic

depends agapastic, preserved being

upon

the reproductivecreation,
use

forms

those wise

that
as

the

spontaneity
into

conferred with

them

in such

to

be drawn

harmony

their

quite original,
This

after

the

Christian
as

scheme.
cannot

Very
have
a

good!

only

shows

that

just

love

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

285

contrary, but must

embrace
of

what

is most is
a

opposed
kind is of

to

as it,

degenerate

case

it,so

tychasm

agapasm.
to
re

Only, in
the

the

tychasticevolution
of among their
so

progress

owing solely
of
as

distribution
servant

the

napkin-hidden
not
on

talent

the

jected

those
money

rejected,just
the table
to

ruined

gamesters
not

leave

make

those

yet ruined
lambs
other

much

the richer.
of

It makes

the felicity

of the
to
on

just the damnation

side of the

the goats,
In

transposed
agapasm, of
a

the

equation.
takes

genuine
virtue

the other

hand,
among

advance

place by

posi

tive of how

sympathy
This manage.

the created
idea which

from springing

continuity
not

mind.
to

is the

tychasticism knows

The the mode

anancasticist of evolution
at

might here
for which
at

interpose, claiming that

he contends agrees from with it.

agapasm For

the

point

which go

tychasm departs
certain

it makes

development
ebbs and

through

phases,having
the whole this its
to
a

its inevitable foreordained

flows, yet tending on

Bare existence the

perfection.
intrinsic

by

destiny
it must accep-

betrays an
be

for affinity shows

good.
in

Herein,
a

admitted, anancasm
a

itself to be Some forms

broad

tion be

species of

agapasm.

of it The

might easily

mistaken

for the
an

genuine

agapasm. With

Hegelian phil
re revelatory

osophy

is such its

anancasticism.

its

with ligion, with its

"

synechism

(however
whole

imperfectly set forth),

the reflection/'

idea of the

theory is superb,
is

almost omitted of
a

sublime.
from

Yet, after all,livingfreedom

its method. The
a

practically
is that

whole
a

movement
a

vast

engine,impelled by
fate of

vis
a

tergo, with
I

blind
mean

and that

mysterious

arriving at

lofty goal.

286

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

such of it

an

engine it would
is
a

be, if
motor.

it

reallyworked;
that
to

but

in

point
as

fact,it

Keely

Grant
is

it

really acts

professesto act, and

But of
"

there
was

nothing
seen

do but
an

accept the

philosophy.
a

never

there
"

such I
a

example
a

of in

long

chain link?

reasoning,
with in
a

shall link

say

with

flaw of

every

no,

every dream. in it

handful
a

sand,

squeezed into shape

model
use

Or

say, it is
not

pasteboard
If
we

of the

a one

philosophythat

realitydoes

exist. idea of

precious thing
which

contains,the

it,in

troducing the tychism

step suggests, and
dom able
was

the arbitrariness
the

of its every
a

make

that

support of

vital free
may

which
to

is the

breath

of the

spiritof love, we

be

produce

that

at which genuine agapasticism,

Hegel

aiming.
A THIRD ASPECT.

DISCRIMINATION

In the very
tween

nature

of

things,the
of evolution its

line of demarcation is not

be

the does
a

three
not

modes

perfectlysharp.
it is

That rather
no

prevent
of its of

being quite real; perhaps

There is in the nature the But three of

mark line

reality.

things
funda

sharp

demarcation and

between violet.

mental
are

colors, red, green,

The

for all that is whether been

they
three

really different.

main

question

radicallydifferent evolutionary elements

tive ; and the second of

have

opera

question is

what

are

the most been

striking operative.

characteristics I propose tion of

whatever
a

elements pages their

to
a

have very

to devote

few in

examina slight
to

these

questions
of human

relation

the

historical for the of the

development
reader's

thought.
the briefest

I first formulate

convenience

possibledefinitions

EVOLUTIONARY three

LOVE

287
of

conceivable

modes
two

of

development
anancasm

thought^
and three

dis of

tinguishingalso
agapasm. will consist ferent The in

varieties of

tychastic development slightdepartures from

of

thought, then,
ideas in dif

habitual

directions

quite purposeless and indifferently, by

outward circumstances followed them
as

quite
or

unconstrained force of

whether
new

by
un

these logic, results

departures being
tend
to

by

foreseen
more

which The ideas

fix

some

of

habits

than

others. of
new

anancastic

development

of

thought

will consist

adopted
a

without

foreseeingwhither by
causes

they tend,
either of

but

having
to

character
as as

determined

external

the

mind, such
mind
as

changed

circumstances

or life,

internal to the

logical developments of
aga-

ideas

already accepted, such

of

The generalizations. is the

pastic development
mental
nor

thought

adoption

of

certain

not altogetherheedlessly, as tendencies,

in

tychasm,
or

quite blindlyby
in anancasm, whose itself,

the

mere

force
an

of circumstances attraction

of for

as logic,

but

by

immediate

the

idea

nature

is divined

before
that

the

mind virtue may

a

possesses of the

it,by

the

power

of

sympathy,

is,by

continuity of mind;
three
as varieties, or

and

this mental

tendency
may

be

of

follows: in
to

First, it
its collective such

affect

whole and be

people
thence

community

personality,
as are

communicated

individuals with the

in

powerfully sympathetic people, although they attainingthe perhaps

affect
to
a

connection be

collective of

may

intellectually incapable
or even

idea

by

their

private understandings
it.

of

consciously apprehending directly, yet

or so

Second,

it may

privateperson
the

that he is

only enabled

apprehend

idea,

to

appreciate its attractiveness,

288

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

by

virtue of

of his
a

sympathy

with

his

neighbors,under
of

the in

fluence The what

strikingexperience or development
of St. Paul may may be taken
an as an

thought.
of

conversion is meant.

example

Third, it

affect

inde individual,
an

pendentlyof
it exercises it. This

his human his

by affections,
even

virtue of

attraction

upon

mind,

before he has comprehended

which has
to the

is the

phenomenon

been

well called

the

divination of genius; for it is due

the man's
us

continuitybetween

mind
next

and

the

Most

High.
of what
tests
we can

Let

consider

by

means

dis

criminate
No

between

these is

different

categoriesof evolution.
the
no

absolute
in the

criterion
nature

possible in

nature

of

things,
of de

since

of

things there
different be found

is

sharp line

marcation

between

the may of

classes.

Nevertheless,
a

quantitativesymptoms
and

by

which may which

sagacious
able
to

sympathetic judge
the

human

nature

be

estimate kinds

approximate proportions in
are

the different

of influence far
as

commingled.
evolution have is the of human

So
been minute

the

historical should

thought
insensible when

has
or so ex

it tychastic,

proceeded by
nature

steps; for such

to

of chances

multiplied as ample,
of the
assume

show that of

phenomena
the

of

regularity.For
white adult
were

native-born

males below 5 feet the

United

States

in

1880, one-fourth
and
one-

part

5 feet 4 inches
8 inches.

in stature

fourth

part above

Then

by

the

of probability, principles among should

whole

population, we
216

expect
216

under
"

4 4

feet
"

inches,
5
" "

above
"

6 6 6 6

feet 6 inches
"

48
9

48
9

7
8 9

"

"

"

"

"

"

4
" "

4
"

less than

less than

"

"

"

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

289
few insignificantly of the
stature
common

I set
are run

down
cases

these

figuresto

show very

how

the

in which

anything

far out the the

presents itself by chance.

second
man

Though
within

of

only
be

every
tween

is included and

four

inches

5 feet 4 inches

5 feet 8 inches odd

inches,yet
above and

if this interval

be

extended all

by
our

thrice
8

four

below, it
adult

will

embrace males The

millions

of native-born

white

(of 1880), except only

test

9 taller and
not

9 shorter.

of minute

variation, if
If it is but
not

absolutely satisfied,
shall
want

negatives ty chasm. negatives anancasm

test, satisfied
men's

we satisfied,

find
a

that

it

agapasm. Now

We

positive
we

by tychasm, only.

wherever
a

find
con

thought taking by imperceptible degrees

to

turn

trary

the purposes

which

animate may

them,

in

spiteof

their has

highest impulses, there, we

been
a

safelyconclude, there

tychasticaction.
of the

Students
to

history of
scholar

mind like
me

there with

be

of

an

erudition

fill an

imperfect

envy ideas

edulcorated when

by joyous admiration, who

started
cannot
are

maintain
more

that than

just

and

can

be

little

freaks,since they
and been further
so

yet have
and

been
at

critically examined,
progress has

that

everywhere
that any has have

all times
out

gradual

it is difficult to make

what distinctly It would follow

originalstep
that

given
been
to

man

has

taken.

tychasm
I

the

sole method
I
cannot

of read

intellectual

development.
I cannot been
same

confess

history so;
sometimes

help

thinkingthat
at

while

tychasm

has

operative, ground
and

others

great steps covering nearly the

different
men

made

by
a

independently, have
steps, and
further

been that

mistaken students

for

succession

of

small

290

LOVE

AND

CHANCE
"

have
an

been
or

reluctant of
a

to

admit

real entitative and

spirit

"

of

age

people,under

the mistaken thus

I

unscrutinized
to wild

impression that they should

and unnatural it may

be

opening
the

the door

hypotheses.
be with

find, on

contrary, that,
minds, been and

however the of
a

the education of

of individual has seldom backward

historical

development
and

thought

tychastic nature,

exclusively in speak

movements. barbarizing

I desire to
a
a

with is

the extreme

modesty
survey
cover so

which very

befits
wide
a

student

of

logicwho

required to
that he
can

field of human

thought
which

it

only by
most

to reconnaissance,

only
any

the greatest
at

skill and

adroit
can

methods

can

impart
my
own

value

all;
not

I but, after all, those of

only

express

opinions and

anybody
of

else; and tychasm

about of the

in my

humble

judgment,
the

the

largestexample
from Christianity,

is afforded

by

history of

its establishment Irish

by Constantine,
era or eon

to, say, the time

about which 500
more

an monasteries,

of

years. than

Undoubtedly
all others
at

the

external

circumstance
men

first inclined

to

accept

in Christianity
extent
to which

its loveliness

and

was tenderness,

the fearful

societywas
and

broken

up

into units into

by

the

un

mitigated greed
Romans
same

hard-heartedness the world. any other And

which that

the very

had

seduced than

yet it

was

more fact,

external

circumstance, that
world
a

fostered that bitterness against the wicked

the

of which

primitive gospel
I least, do
not

of

Mark

contains

not

single trace.
the blas about of

At

detect

it in the

remark

about

phemy against the Holy Ghost, where

vengeance,
nor even

nothing is said
the the

in that

speech
worm

where and

closinglines
fire that

Isaiah

are

quoted, about

the

feed

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

291

upon

the

"carcasses But

of

the

men

that

have

transgressed
increases dis talk

against me."
until in the tracted

little by
of the

little the New

bitterness

last book

Testament,

its poor
was

author

represents that all the time

come

Christ

ing
was

about
to

having

to

save

the

world, the
the
a

secret

design
a

catch

the entire human and

souse

race, with them all in

went
no a curse

exception of

paltry
and
as

144,000,

brimstone
forever more." that and

lake,
ever,

the smoke and

an

of their torment
"

up any

to turn

remark,
insensible such
an

There smirk

is
or

Would should

it be

fiendish I wish

grin
I could

accompany

utterance?

believe St.
tells about is of men's
"

John
the
"

did not

write

it; but it is his gospel which

unto

resurrection resuscitated any One

condemnation,"
the sake is
a

"

that

being
and,
tion. like of
men

just for

of

torturingthem;
ancient

at

rate, the Revelation

can

very

composi
were

understand all their the

that

the

early

Christians
a

tryingwith
wet

might

to climb

steep declivity
element of

smooth

clay;

deepest
heart

and

truest

their

animating life,
but

both

and

head,

was

universal their

love;

they
a

were

and continually,

against
a

wills,

into slipping in
a

party spirit, every

too

slipservingas
man.

precedent,
party feel
luster

fashion

but

familiar until

to every

This
330

ing insensibily grew

the

by
in

about

A.D.

the

of

pristineintegritythat
so

St. Mark that

reflects the

wh.te

of lightwas spirit

far tarnished in the of

Eusebius, (the Jared

his could History,
an

Sparks of
nounce

that

day),

preface to

his intention

everything that exaggerating

and of

tended

to

the

glory

of

the

church His the Latin

suppressing whatever
Lactantius is

might disgrace it.

worse, and still;
so

contemporary
went
on

darkling

increasinguntil

292

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

before dria
two
was

the end

of the century

the great
4

of library

Alexan

destroyed by Theophilus,
burnt later,
the is

until

Gregory the Great,

pro

centuries that

great library of Rome,

the mother and of

claiming (which
mother
state

"Ignorance
as

devotion,"
the the

is of

true, just

oppression
a

injusticeis

until spirituality), would

"

sober

descriptionof
not too

of the church would

treat

be

thing our
for

nice

news

papers
movement

as

unfit the

publication."

All

this

is shown
to

by

applicationof the
Another times very

test

given
like the

above it
on a

have

been

tychastic.
a

much

small of which

scale,only
there in the
are

hundred

swifter,for
the

study

documents

by

library-full,

is to be found
Anancastic with
a

historyof

the French

Revolution.

evolution between.

advances The
reason

by

successive

strides

pauses of

is that

in this process is

habit
next

thought having
strongest. Now
the

been

overthrown

supplanted by
sure

the

this next and first,

one

strongest is
as our

to

be

widely disparatefrom
direct contrary. the second

often old

as

not

is its

It reminds

of

rule of

making

candidate

vice-president.This
from from

there character,

anancasm fore,clearlydistinguishes

tychasm.

The

character

which

it distinguishes external and

agapasm
anancasm

is its pur-

poselessness. But
be of examined

internal

have
the

to

separately. Development circumstances,

cases or

under

pressure

external
most

cataclysmine evolution,
enough.
It has

is in

unmistakable

number

less

from degrees of intensity, has

more

the brute

the plain war, force,

of the world's what has been
x.

which

than

once

turned fact of

the current

down thought,
*

to the hard

evidence,or

See

Draper's History of Intellectual Development, chap.

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

293

taken hordes. of such

for

it,which

has

been

known
can

to

convince

men

by

The
a

only hesitation
a

than

subsist in the presence

Never
are

history is
the
a

one. quantitative

external therefore

influences it must be

only

ones

which

affect the

mind,

and

be

matter
to

of

judgment for
to set

which

it would

scarcely
a

worth

while is to
or

attempt

rules,whether

given
from
mean

movement

be
In

governed regarded as principally

the rise of medieval

without

not.

thought,

scholasticism

and

the

art developments, un synchronistic

doubtedly
Aristotle

the crusades

and

the

discoveryof
The

the

of writings of

were

powerful
from

influences.
to

development Magnus

scholasticism follows Prantl have the

Roscellin

Albertus

closely

successive
that
more

steps in the knowledge of Aristotle.

is the than whole Carl

thinks thumbed solid

that books

story, and
Prantl. He

few has

men

done

good
But of

work, notwithstanding his slap-dash judgments.

never

we

shall

make

so

much

as

good beginning
whole company has been

comprehending

scholasticism

until the
a

explored and systematically

dents pose.

digestedby
held
are

of stu

regularlyorganized and
But
as

under
now

rule for that pur consider specially

for the

period we
the

ing,that

which is
as

synchronised

Romanesque
It does
not

architecture,

the literature PrantPs upon purpose studies. dicta their

easilymastered.
to

quite justify
authors definite all their of

the slavish

dependence

of these
a

authorities.

Moreover, they kept

their

steadily before
I am,
as

minds, throughout
to

therefore,unable
an

offer

this

period
anancasm,

scholasticism which
seems

example
the fluorine

of

pure

external intellectual
western

to

be

of the

elements. ideas is

Perhaps

the

recent

Japanese reception of

294

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

the with

purest instance
other

of

it in

history.
commoner.

Yet

in

combination
If the devel

elements, nothing is
under
as

opment
facts be

of ideas

the influence external and

of the

study
"

of external
on

considered between the the

anancasm,

it is

the
"

border

external

the

internal

forms,

it But

is,of

course,

principalthing

in modern

learning.
of the

Whewell,
science

whose

masterly comprehension
been
too

history of

critics have that

ignorantproperly to appreciate,

clearlyshows

it is far from

being the overwhelmingly

even preponderant influence,

there.

Internal upon
a

anancasm,

or

logicalgroping, which being able

its course,
to foresee

advances whither rule of world

predestinedline
nor

without
to steer

it is to be carried

this is the the

development
understand the

of

philosophy. Hegel
he seeks monitor
to

first made

this; and

make

logic not

merely
was

subjectiveguide and
been

of

thought, which
to

all

it had

ambitioning before, but

not

be

the

very

main

and spring of thinking, of of discussion, of history, the all

merely
the

of individual

thinking but
of
a

history of

development
This the involves

thought, positive,
be
or

of all

development.
error. a

clearly demonstrable
of whatever
a

Let

logic in question
inference

kind

it may,

logic of

necessary

logic of probable shaped

inference

(the theory might perhaps

case

be

in any to fit either), itself to determine

it supposes what

that

logicis
follows it will

sufficient of
from
not

conclusion
so

given premises;
suffice to take kinds

for unless
an

it will do

much,
of say

explain why just

of the
course

individual it does

train
to

reasoning nothing
from

should of other

take,

development.
one

It thus
can

supposes

that

given premises,only

conclusion

be drawn, logically

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

295

and

that there

is

no

scope
one

at all for free choice.

That

from

given premises only

is
one

conclusion which that In

can

be drawn, logically
come

of the

false notions attention

to

have

from of

logicians'

confiningtheir

Nantucket the

thought, the

logic of non-relative
does One
not

terms.

it logic of relatives,

hold

good.
occurs

remark

to

me.

If the evolution of internal men; for

of

historyis
it

in considerable resembles 33 years the is

a

part of the nature

anancasm, and

development
rough
but age

of individual

just as

natural
at

unit of time
man

individuals,
there
one

being
should

the be

average
an

which

has

issue,so
of which be
out

approximate period
movement

at

the end
be

great historical

ought
us see

to

likelyto
can

sup any of

planted by thing of
Rome dates.
as

another.

Let
Take

if

we

make

the kind.

the

governmental development
and
set

long being sufficiently

down

the principal

B.C. B.C.
B.C. A.D.

753,
510,

Foundation

of of

Rome. the

Expulsion
of

Tarquins.
title

27, Octavius

assumes

Augustus.

476, End

Western

Empire. Empire.

A.D.
A.D.

962, Holy
1453, Fall

Roman of

Constantinople.

The

last event

was

one

of the

most

in history, significant
are

for Italy. especially

491

The

intervals

243,

483,

502,

486,
the

years.

All

are

rather the

curiouslynear
Successive

equal, except

first which would

a

is half

others. be
so near

reigns of kings
Let
us

not

commonly
in the

equal.

set

down

few

dates

historyof thought.

296
B.C.

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

585, Eclipse of Thales.

Beginning

of

Greek

phi

losophy.
A.D. A.D.

30,

The

crucifixion.

529,

Closing of Athenian

schools.

End

of

Greek

philosophy.
A.D.

1125,

(Approximate) Bologna and

Publication of

Rise

of

the

Universities

of

Paris. the
"

A.D.

1543,

De

Revolutionibus of Modern

"

of

Copernicus.
The of intervals
are

Beginning

Science.

615, 499, 596, 418, years.

may take the

In the

history

metaphysics, we

following:

B.C. A.D. A.D.

322,

Death Death

of Aristotle. of of

1274,

Aquinas.
Kant.

1804, Death

The

intervals the

are

1595

and

530

years.

The

former

is about

thrice From At
a

latter.
no figures,

these
same

conclusion that

can

fairlybe
there

drawn. may there be be

the

time, they suggest

era

perhaps

rough

natural

of about of

500

years.

Should

any

independent
some

evidence

the this,

intervals

noticed

may

gain
The
be

significance.
of

agapasticdevelopment
its of

thought should, if
this have

it

exists,

distinguishedby
the

purposive character,
an

purpose
a

being

development

idea.

We

should and

direct

agapic or sympathetic comprehension by

virtue of the

recognitionof it,
I here

continuity of thought. continuityof thought

used of last in my

take

it for

granted

that such the

has paper Even

been
on

sufficiently
the
"

proved by
of Mind
ments
are
"

arguments
Monist

Law argu

in The
not

July.
in

if those

quite convincing

themselves, yet

if

they

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

297

are

reenforced
two

by

an

apparent

agapasm

in the
one

historyof
mutual in

thought, the
aid. The

propositionswill
I trust,be will,

lend

another

reader
such

too
a

well

grounded
circle in there

logic

to mistake

mutual be

support for
shown
an

vicious

reason an

ing.

If it could the
"

that directly
"

is such

entity as
mere

spiritof

age

or

of

people, and
for

that

individual

will intelligence

not

account at
once

all the

phenomena,
ticism unable
am,
to

this would of

be

proof enough
I must

of agapasthat I
am

and
to

synechism.
a

acknowledge
of

produce

cogent
adduce have

demonstration such been

this; but
as

able believe, those that

to

arguments
drawn from

will other

serve

confirm

which

facts.

I believe

all the

greatest achievements
of unaided

of mind I

have

been

beyond

the powers

and individuals; from

find,

apart from

the support this from direct and

a

opinion receives

synechistic
of the many sub

and considerations,

the
reason

purposive character
for
so

great movements,

thinking in

limity of
and

the

ideas

in

their

occurring simultaneously
of

independently to

number

individuals

of

no

ex

traordinarygeneral powers.
ture

The

pointed Gothic
appears imitate
to
me

architec
to

in several
a

of its

developments
attempts
to

be of

such

character. of the
are

All

it

by

modern flat
at the

architects and time

men

greatest learningand
felt

genius
to be
so.

appear Yet

tame, and
the

by

their authors
was

stylewas
of

there living,

quite an
of

abundance
of

of

capable

producing
In

works

this kind
one

gigantic
docu of

and sublimity
ments

power. that

more

than

case, extant the

show

the cathedral

chapters,in genius
as a

selection
con

treated architects,
as sideration,

high
were

artistic
no

secondary
able
to

if there

lack of persons

supply

298

LOVE

AND

CHANCE

that; and
viduals
natures

the

results

justifytheir
those

confidence.

Were

indi

in

general, then,in high

ages
an

possessed of such lofty

and under many

intellect?

Such

opinion

would

break

down How

the first examination. times made have

men now

in middle almost

life

seen

great

discoveries The

independently and
I remember
was

simultaneously!
a

first instance
to
to

the and

predictionof
Adams.

planet hardly

exterior knows

Uranus the

by

Leverrier

One

whom

principleof

the conservation it may

of energy
con

ought
sidered The and and
to

to be
as

attributed, although
the

reasonably be
has forth of
ever

greatest discovery science

made. Rankine

mechanical

theory

of heat the
men same

was

set

by

by Clausius during
there Thomson.
are
5

month

February, 1850;
this great step after

eminent The

who

attribute

kinetical and

theory long

of gases, in

being

started

by John
and

Bernoulli

buried

was oblivion,

reinvented laws and of

appliedto

the explanation not

merely

of the

Boyle, Charles, and

Avogadro,
modern

but

also of diffusion

viscosity, by
known

at least three

separately. physicists
selection
same
"

It is well

that

the and

doctrine

of natural
at

was

presented by Wallace
of the British
"

by

Darwin Darwin editions obscure

the

meeting
Historical shows The
as

and Association; the later

in his of his

Sketch
that method
as

prefixed to
were

book

both

anticipated by analysiswas
there
were

forerunners. for Swan who

of spectrum

claimed others

well had Law

for

Kirchhoff, and
claims.

perhaps

still better of the

The Elements

authorship
is

of the

Periodical
a

Chemical

disputed
in the

between

Russian,

Thomson,
once

himself, in his article Heat

the
name

Encyclopedia Britannica,

never

mentions

of

Clausius.

EVOLUTIONARY

LOVE

299

German,

and

an

Englishman; although there

merit belongs to principal

is

no

room

for doubt
are

that the all the

the first. These

nearly
same

greatest discoveries
inventions. have it
out

of

our

times. be

It is

the

with

the

It may

not

surprising by

that the several

telegraph should inventors,because

well made and

been
was

made independently
an

easy But

corollary from
it
was

scientific facts with the

before. inventions.

not

so

telephone

other

Ether,
three
a

the

first

was anaesthetic,

introduced

independently by
Now ether had
one

different
common

New

England physicians.
a

been of

article for

century.
centuries

It had before. should

been

in

the

pharma
that it
ear

copoeiasthree
its anaesthetic
was as a

It is
not

quite incredible
been

property
It had

have

known;
to

known.
secret

probably passed
days
of of Basil the

from

mouth

from
a

the
secret

Valentine; but
kind. it tor use?
so was

for In

long
New

it had

been

Punchinello
had used

England, Why
can

for many had it not

years,

boys
put

amusement.

then be

been

to its serious

No
not

reason

given,except
The

that the motive

to

to do

strong
been

enough.
desire the for

motives and

doing

so

could

only

have

gain

philanthropy. About
was

1846, the date of

in
an un

philanthropy introduction,
condition. been
a

undoubtedly

usually active ism,

had which had

That

or sensibility,

sentimental-

introduced

in the

previous century,
of

undergone
now

ripening process,
than it had

in consequence

which,

though
more

less intense influence of the

previously been, it was

than it had
ever

likelyto

unreflecting people
ether-claimants for had

been.

All three

probably

been
were

influenced

by

the desire

gain; but nevertheless they agapic

influences.

certainlynot

insensible to the

LOVE 3oo

AND

CHANCE

doubt

if

any

of

the

great

discoveries

ought, achievements; Yet,

and if

properly,
and

to

be

considered

as

altogether
share this

individual

think

many for

will

doubt.

not,

what

an

argument
is here!

the

continuity
wish
to

of

mind,
very aside

for

agapasticism
If thinkers

do

not

be

strenuous.

will

only

be

persuaded
to

to

lay
the

their

prejudices
of this

and

apply
I

themselves

studying
to

evidences

doctrine,

shall

be

fully

content

await

the

final

decision.

Supplementary
THE PRAGMATISM
BY

Essay
OF

PEIRCE

JOHN

DEWEY

THE

term

pragmatism
of

was

introduced

into California
"

literature Union

in

the

opening
in

sentences

Professor
run

James's
as

address

1898.

The
as

sentences
we

follows: be In

The

principle of
in
a

pragmatism,
of ways, all

may them

call
very

it, may

expressed
the S.

variety
Science it

of

simple.
Charles who

Popular

Monthly
as

for January,
etc.

1878, Mr.
readers

Peirce
to

introduces the volume From idea

was

follows:"
to
sources

The

have the
as

turned word well told

as us

referred other

have
we

not,
know

however,
that the

found
name

there. the that

furnished
word the
"

by
the

Mr. idea the

Peirce.
were

The

latter
to

has him

both
of

the

and idea

suggested of Pure
x

by

reading
the
term

Kant,
the

by
of
a

Critique

Reason,
The the

by

Critique

Practical

Reason." of

article idea in in and

extenso.

in the

the

Monist
for
sets

gives such

good
term

statement

both be

reason

selecting the
out

that with

it may
men

quoted
work work

Peirce

by saying that
mind is molded
aware.

who

laboratories, the
much
you
more

habit

of
are

by

experimental
"

than
may
as

they
to

themselves

Whatever

statement

make

him, he
that
ever

[the experimentalist]will
a

either

understand
ever

meaning
be and

if

given prescription for

out

an

experiment
of
a

can

is carried

in he

act,
will

an see

experience
no sense

given description
what
you

will

result, or
himself of

else

at

all in

say."
in
,

Having
methods that

the

experimental
"

mind the
a

and

being
that
a

interested

thinking,
rational

he

framed of

theory
or

conception

is, the
See and

purport

word

other

expression, lies
Vol.

article the

"

on

Pragmatism,"
Vol.
15, p. 162.

in

Baldwin's

Dictionary,

2.,

p.

322,

Monist,

301

302

THE

PRAGMATISM

OF

PE1RCE

the conduct of life; so exclusively in its bearing upon that, result from since obviously nothing that might not experiment

bearing upon conduct, if one can define ac curatelyall the conceivable experimental phenomena which the
can

have

any

direct

affirmation therein
a

or

denial

of

concept
of the For

could

imply, one

will have is abso the

complete
more

definition in it.

concept, and
he doctrine,

there

lutely nothing
name

this

invented

pragmatism."

After doctrine

saying

that

some

of his

friends

wished that who

him he

to

call the learned

practicism or
terms
as

he practicalism, that
to
one

says
"

had

philosophy from
Kantian far apart the
no

Kant, and
most two

still

thought in
were as

readily,praktisch and

pragmatisch
to
a

poles,the
mind of the

former

belonging

region of
can ever

thought where
make
sure

experimentalist type
his

of solid
some

ground under

feet,the
Now its

latter

expressing
most
an

relation

to

definite human of the

new

purpose.
was

quite the

strikingfeature

theory

recognition of

in

separable purpose."2
From

connection

between

rational

cognition and
noted that

human

this brief statement, it will be the of the significance of terms,

or

Peirce of

con

fined

term

to

the

determination

the

meaning
the

propositions;the theory was better,

the How had
to

not, of

a itself, theory of the test,or

truth, of propositions. Hence

Make used
"

title of his

originalarticle:
the the
term
more

Ideas
as a

Clear.

In
of to

his later

after writing, he

been

theory
"

truth,
"

proposed
of

limited

pragmaticism
even

designate his originalspecific meaning.3

to

But is
a

with

respect

the

meaning
his

propositions,there
the

marked

difference

between Some have

pragmaticism and

pragmatism

of, say, James.

the the
to

of the critics saved reacted

of (especially continental) themselves futile beating of some

to

latter would

air,if they
own as-

had
2

James's
the do

statements
laws of

instead

of

their
a

Kant

discriminates
to

morality, which
or

are

priori, from
of prudence, the
33
a

rules of skill, having

with

technique

art, and

counsels

having
laws
3

to

do

with

welfare.

The

latter he

calls pragmatic;

priori
and
34.
one

practical. See Metaphysics

See
same

of Morals, Abbott's
Issues of

trans., pp.
and

the

article in

the

Monist

already mentioned,

another

in the

volume,

p.

481, "The

Pragmaticism."

THE

PRAGMATISM

OF

PEIRCE Thus

303 in his

sociations California

with

the word
"

"

pragmatic."
effective

James
of any

says

address:

The

meaning
to

philosophic
active

can proposition

always be brought down

future in the fact

some

con particular or

sequence,

in

our

practicalexperience, whether
fact that the in the

passive; the point lying rather

must

experience
be
active"

be

particular,than
the curious

that

it must

(Italics mine.)
Now

fact is that Peirce

and
to

puts

more

emphasis

upon

practise(or conduct)
transfers worth fies the

less upon the

the particular; in

fact,he
is it identi
"

emphasis
both

general. The
and with

followingpassage
which the

quotation because meaning meaning

no

of the the

definiteness with

meaning with
The

future

general.
future.

The How

rational so?

of every of
a

propositionlies
the

in the
a

proposition is itself
very of it. be But

proposition. In
which it is the

deed, it is
into which which

other
a

than

of proposition of the

meaning: it is
a

translation

myriads of forms
is that
one

propositionmay
called its very in form

which translated, It

is to be

meaning?
the in
not

is,according to the
ap those that

pragmaticist, that plicable to human

cumstances
nor

which

proposition becomes
or or

conduct,
one

these this

special cir
under be

when which and

entertains

special design,
"

but
every

that

form

is most
to every

applicable to
purpose."

self-control

situation

Hence,

it must

simply the general descriptionof all the experimental phenomena

which the assertion of the

proposition virtuallypredicts." Or,

identifies meaning
with formation

paraphrasing, pragmatism
of
a

habit, or
the
ways
a

way

of

acting having the greatest generality pos

of

sible,or
habits mitted
not
nomena a or

widest of

range

applicationto particulars.
as

Since
com

acting are
the

just as real reality of

"

it particulars, Hence

is

to

belief in
of

universals." the

it is of
not

doctrine

phenomenalism,
sensuous

for while

richness does
to

phe
in

lies in their
to

quality,pragmatism
as

tend

define

these

(leaving them,
their rational the

it were,

speak for
en

themselves), but
deavors
to

"eliminates the

sential

element, and
this it finds

define

purport, and
or

in the

purposive bearing of Moreover,

not

word

proposition in they
are

question.,''1 physically

only

are

generals real, but

304

THE

PRAGMATISM

OF

PEIRCE
"

efficient. unwholesome window.

not

The
"

meanings
may

"

the

air is

stuffy
"

and

"

stuffyair

is

determine, for example, the opening of the Accordingly on the ethical side, the pragmaticist does
the
summum

action,but makes it to consist in that process of evolution whereby the existent and more comes to embody those generals more ; in other of rational pur words, becomes, through action an embodiment
to
. . .

make

bonum

consist

in

ports
The

or

habits passages say in

as generalized widely

as

4 possible."

quoted
the

should

be

compared

with

what he

Peirce
says
"

has
that

to

Baldwin
seems
"

Dictionary article.
to
a

There the

James's doctrine
of
man

commit

us

to

belief does
not

that
com

the end mend

as

is action

stoical maxim

which
at

itself it did

as

at

to the present writer forcibly thirty. If it be admitted, on

an

the age

of sixty

the be

contrary, that

action

wants

end, and
toward

that the end

the

must

something
itself

of
. .

then general description, would direct

to
us

spirit of
The

the

maxim

something
. . .

different from

facts, practical good which

attention
can

namely,
the

general ideas.
to

only
maxim

ultimate directs

practical facts
is to further

which

the

subserve
. . .

the

development
now

of concrete that way. the

reasonableness. ultimate

Almost
lies in the in

everybody will
reactions in

agree in
some

good

evolutionary process
their

If so, it is not in

individual

but segregation,
on

something
that

general or continuous.
the the coalescence,

Synechism is founded

the notion

becoming continuous, the becoming gov erned by laws, the becoming instinct with general ideas, are but phases of one and the same process of the growth of reason
ableness.
exactitude This is first shown
to

be

true

with

mathematical
to

in the field of

and logic,
not
a

is thence
to

inferred

hold
. .

good metaphysically. It is
but includes Here

opposed

pragmaticism
as a

that
we

procedure as
have
or

step."
of

again
or

the

doctrine

pragmaticism

doc

trine that

meaning

rational

purport resides in the setting up

a

of habits
*

methods, generalized
fair to
see

doctrine

passing over
connection obvious of

into

It is

probably
moral

here

an

empirical rendering of the Kantian

distinction and
"

generalityof
tional associations.

action, while
"sensible

the

ra

purport"

and

particular" have

also

Kantian

THE

PRAGMATISM of

OF

PEIRCE be well he

305
now

the

metaphysics
although,
as

synechism.
notes, he
the

It

will

to to

recur

to explicitly
"

Peirce's he
at
"

earlier doctrine

which the

seems

qualify reality

upheld

doctrine

of the
sets

of

generalseven
on

earlier of

period. Peirce
the
in the

out, in his

article
ence

the

Fixation belief

Belief," with
does is
an

empirical differ
belief is calm

of doubt
a

and

expressed

facts that belief deter that and

mines and from

habit

while

doubt

not, and
uneasy

while satisfactory which

we

doubt

dissatisfied state

of state to attain,that is, a struggle to emerge; sole object be called inquiry. The a struggle which may belief, of

inquiry is the fixation of belief. The has, however, certain rivals: reiteration, dwelling upon
of The believe. social method
we one

scientific method is that of

"

of fixa
"

tion

tenacity"
to

constant

everything conducive
might unsettle
down take
in

the the

avoidance belief, will to of man's

everything which
breaks have
to

it

"

practice because
of

nature;
that for and

account to

contrary

beliefs in the

others,so
attack

the real

problem is
own

fix the belief of is

to

community;
to

otherwise doubt.

our

belief
resort

precariously
the method the fact

exposed
of that

Hence breaks

the down

authority. This authority

then
can

method
not

in

time

by

fix all beliefs in arises between

to

all their

and details,

because There
"

of the conflict which may be

recourse

organized traditions. agreeable

but in
to
"

what

is

"

reason

method

potent in formation
in the
to

of taste
"

and

in esthetic
a

produc
which

tions and

history of philosophy,
permanent
the belief at

method

again fails
leaves
recourse
"

secure

agreements

individual
to
are

mercy

of attack.

and so society, Hence, finally, is this:

science, whose
real

fundamental characters

hypothesis
are our

There of

things,whose
and

entirely indepen
senses

dent

our

opinionsabout
can

them; those realities affect

...

according to regularlaws,
laws

by taking advantage of the by reasoning how

the

of

we perception,

ascertain

things
rea
5

reallyare, and
son

any

man

if he have
be led

sufficient
to
one

experienceand
true

enough about
It will
"

it,will
that

conclusion." the
terms

be

noted
"

the

quotation employs
them
a

"

reality and

truth," while it makes

"

part of the

state-

P.

26.

306
ment

THE

PRAGMATISM

OF

PEIRCE

of the
a

hypothesis entertained meanings attach they

are

in scientific
to

procedure. Upon
"

such
"

basis,what
"

the

terms

reality

"

and be

truth

Since
on

general terms, their meanings conception has.

Now
are
"

must

determined which real the

the basis
our

of the

effects, having practicalbearings,

the effect which the
conse

object of

things have
which the

is to

cause

beliefs beliefs;
a reality

then rational

quences

give the general term

real

purport." produce

And

on

assumption of the scientificmethod, the distinguishing object

the
must

/character

of the

be
"

that

it tends

to

singleuniversallyaccepted
are

belief.

All the of

followers

of science

fully persuaded that

far which
we

processes
one

if only investigation,
ques

pushed
tion to

enough, will give they

are can

certain
"

solution to every
This

be

applied."
where

activityof thought
but
. .
.

by which
dained law

not carried,

we

wish,

to

foreor

goal, is like the

in

operation of destiny. conception of truth

to

This

great

is embodied

the

and

reality. The
to

opinion which
v

is fated
we

be

ultimatelyagreed by
the

by all who object repreessay

is what investigate, sented in

"

mean

truth, and
In
a

the

this

opinion is the
which follows and

real." 6

subsequent

(on

the

Probability of Induction
from

") Peirce

expressly draws
viz.,that this

the conclusion

this statement;

conception of truth
the
'

reality makes
"

character
are

of the methods reached.

everything depend upon of inquiry and inference by which

the
case

conclusions
we

In

of

synthetic inferences
of
our

know all

only the degree of trustworthiness

comes

proceeding.
must

As

knowledge

from

we synthetic inference, our

also

infer that
are

that the such

all human processes

as

certainty consists merely in by which

our

knowing
derived
"

knowledge
led
to true

has

been

must

generally have
more,

conclusions

7
"

true

once conclusions,

being those
that

which

command

the

agreement

of

competent
up,
we

inquiries.
say

Summing
doctrine port of
v

may

Peirce's

pragmaticism
or
"

is pur

concerning the

meaning,
that these

conception,
consist

rational

objects, namely,
have

in the

which effects, the ob-

might conceivably

practical bearings,we

conceive

P.

S6-57-

P.

105-

THE

PRAGMATISM

OF

PEIRCE

307

ject of
effects
-

our

conception
whole is
our

to
our

have.

Then,

our

conception of these object." 8

if
we
"

is the

of

conception of the
of its sensible

Our have

idea
any

of

anything
as we

idea
we

and effects," the

doubt
or

to

whether

really believe
ask ourselves
In

effects to be
or no own we

sensi should

ble
act
v,

no,

have

only

to

whether

any

in their presence. differently stimuli

an are

short,our

responses
our

-to

sensory

the

ultimate, or

testing, ingredients in
sense

conception of

object. In the literal

is
more

of the word

pragma-

tist,therefore, Peirce
He
l-

of

pragmatist than
That is to say, he

James. emphasizes
much
more

is also less of less the

nominalist.

much the of

particularsensible generic attitude

a

consequence,
set

and
up

habit, the

of response, In the

in consequence the

experiences with
to

thing.
as

passage

in

Dictionary
less
"

already quoted he importance

than
in his earlier

speaks

if in his later
more

life he

attached

action, and
But

to

"

concrete

reasonableness the
a

writing. It may
there

well

be

that but

relative difference

em

phasis had

shifted. For

is at

most

of
a

emphasis.
action consists the
^

in his later

doctrine,concrete
about

rationalitymeans

change in existence
which embodies in habitual upon

brought
attitudes

through action, and

own

through

conceptions whose
of response.
as

existence specific his earlier

In

writing,

emphasis
a

habits,
is
"

something
what
a

generic, is explicit.
habits
Now it involves."9 belief of the

"What
More
a

thing

means

simply
infers is
a

elaborately,
a

Induction
a

rule.

rule is

habit. belief

That is of

habit

rule,active
of
a

in us, is evident.
so

^
\

That of
a

every

the

nature

habit, in
in the

far

as

it is of

general character,has
10

been

shown

earlier

papers

this series." The

*

difference

between

Peirce

and

James
the former

which
upon

next

strikes

us

is the greater

emphasis placed by
the for

the method

'

of

procedure.

As

quotations already made Peirce, upon

his least the

show, everything
of the
com

turned, ^ultimately pared with James

s

trustworthiness of

procedures of inquiry. Hence

"

high

estimate

logic,as
Hence

at

James in his later days.

9

also

P.

45.

P.

43.

1"

P.

151.

308
his under definite the

THE

PRAGMATISM

OF

PEIRCE

rejection of the
of what he with upon this is the the social

appeal
that

to

the

Will of has

to

Believe

"

form

calls the fact

method Peirce has

of

tenacity. Closely
a more

associated

explicit appeal
have in

dependence
in Peirce is

factor the

than

James.
those

The who

essentiallyto

consensus are

vestigated, using methods

all. It is the
"

which

capable of employment
and be the fact that
to
"

by

need

for social agreement, of

in its disin the

absence

the

method

tenacity
of the

will

exposed
upon

tegration from
wider and wider

without, which
utilization Peirce the and

finally forces

mankind

scientific method.
are

Finally, both
both have the

James
Of
at

realists. of real

The

reasonings of really
clearer the
pur

depend
effects fact
or

upon

assumption

things which
makes

consequences. in

the least
a

two, Peirce
we are

that

philosophy

dealing with
is itself to

with conception of reality,

reality as

term

having rational
" "

port, and
determined
the

hence in

with
terms

something
of beliefs

whose

meaning
That

be

consequences.

reality
"

means

object of
belief
"

those

which

have, after
"

prolonged
the

and

cooperative inquiry, become^ stable,and

these while

truth this whose them

quality of

s, is
may

logical consequence
define the real
as

of that think that

X1

position. Thus
characters
to
are

we

independent
would the
v. come

of

what

anybody
to

may

be
...

it makes
out-

be idea of

great mistake

suppose

this definition it is

of

reality perfectly clear."

For which the

only the
us

and persistent in of

conjoint inquiry
the what
way
concrete to

enables

to
"

give
char be."

meaning /intelligible
acters

expression
think

independent
while

anybody
out

may

them

to

(This is the pragmatic

And
out

of

the

egocentric predicament.)
can

my

purpose

is

wholly expository I
to

not not

close with have

not
a a

inquiring whether
influence

recourse

Peirce

would

most

beneficial

in contemporary

discussion. arise from

to

Do
an

large
to

part of
define instead
to

our

difficulties epistemological
"

attempt

the
of

real that

"

as

something given prior

reflective belief
11

reflective
to

inquiry
and

as

which

inquiry is forced
can

reach

which

when

it is reached

stably cling?

P.

S3-

BIBLIOGRAPHY

OF

PEIRCE'S

PUBLISHED

^
WRITINGS

6'*'*

I.

Writings
4.

of

General
papers

Interest.1 in the Journal

Three

of

Speculative

Philosophy,

Vol.

(1868).
1.

"Questions Man,"
pp.

Concerning
103-114.

Certain

Faculties

Claimed

for

2.

"Some
"

Consequences
of

of of

Four the

Incapacities,"
Laws of

pp. pp.

140-157.

3.

Ground

Validity

Logic,"
deal

193-208.
with of of of the in the the

These

three of

papers,

somewhat

loosely connected,
The
first is
a

mainly
our

philosophy
tuition, and
most

discursive
that of
"

thought.
every

deals

with The
acute

power
one

holds

thought writings,

sign."
an

second,

remarkable tradition
on

Peirce's and
a

contains argument
The

criticism the

Cartesian

noteworthy
thinking.
of the

against contains,
The
same

traditional

emphasis
refutation Journal

"images"
Mill's
two

in

third

inter volume and

alia,
of
on

of

indictment

syllogism.
on

the the

contains of B.

unsigned

communications

Nominalism

Meaning

Determined. of Fraser's
113
an
"

Review Vol.

Berkeley,"
pp.

in

the

North

American

Review,

(1871),

449-472.

This

paper

contains

important (A
Scotist

analysis
realism

on

medieval to

realism,

and

of

Berkeley's
work after C.

nominalism.

continues

distinguish

Peirce's

this.)
of
the

"Illustrations

Logic
12-13

of

Science,"

in

Popular
in
were

Science Pt. I

Monthly,
of this

Vols. volume. in the the

(1877-1878).
first and second

Reprinted
papers

The Revue

also

published
D.
Ten
papers

Philosophique,
Vols. five
1-3
are

Vols.

6-7

(1879).
and II

in

Monist,
The first

(1891-1893), reprinted
in Pt.

15-16
of this

(1905-1906).
volume.

The
an
answer

sixth
to

"

paper,

Reply

to of 3,

the the

Necessitarians," foregoing by
the

Vol.

3,

pp.

526-570,
the "The

is

the

criticism

editor

of

Monist,
Issues

Vol. of
1

2,

pp.

56off.; cf. Vol.

Vol.
3, pp.

pp.

68ff.

and

57iff., and

McCrie,

Synechism,"
The

38off.
is

following
reflections be useful.

classification
occur

arbitrary,
under

as

some

of II.

Peirce's and III.

most

sig
may,

nificant

in

papers

headings

It

however,

309

310
7. "What 8. 9.
" "

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Pragmatism
Issues of Peterson's
to

Is?"

Vol.

15,

pp.

161-181.

The Mr.

Pragmaticism," Proposed
an

Vol.

15, pp.

481-499.
16, pp.

"

Discussion," Vol.
for

1478.
16,

10.

Prolegomena
PP-

Apology

Pragmaticism,"

Vol.

492-S40.

The and
paper

last four

papers

develop Peirce's thought by showing

the

its agreement The last

disagreement
contains E. "The

with

pragmatism
of Existential
in

of

James

and

Schiller.

his Method

Graphs.
Hibbert

Reality
pp.

of

God,"

the

Journal, Vol.
brief indications

(1908),
of many

96-112.
Peirce's

(This article contains leading ideas.) Open

"

of F. Six

Papers in the
"

Court, Vols. 6-7 (on

the

(1893). brotherhood),
pp.

1.

Pythagorics
3375-3377-

Pythagorean

2.

"Dmesis"

(on

charity towards

criminals),

pp.

3399-3402. pp. 3391-

3. "The

Critic of Arguments

(I.),Exact (II.), The

of the

Thinking,"
Reader

3394. 4. "The to

Critic of Arguments

is Introduced contain
a

Relatives,"
clear

pp.

3415-3419.
account

(The

last two

very

succinct

general character

of

Peirce's 5. "What
6.
"

logic.)
Faith?"
pp.

is Christian

3743-3745.

The in

Marriage
Baldwin's
matter

of
"

Religion and Dictionary form,

of

Science," pp. Philosophy ":

sufficient

3559-3560.

G.

Articles

Individual, priority,
syne-

kind,

and

pragmatism, possibility,

reasoning, sign, scientific method, chism, and

H.
"

reason,

uniformity.
of

Pearson's Vol.

Grammar

Science," in Popular
296-306.

Science
of

Monthly,
Pearson's the aim of

58

(1901),

pp.

(A

critique
as

conceptualism and science.)

II. Writings A. Five of

of his utilitarian view

to

Predominantly Logical
Papers
Arts
on

Interest. before the in American the

Logic, read
Sciences. Vol. 7

Academy
of

of

and

Published

Proceedings
of

the

Academy,
1.

(1867).
in

"On

an

Improvement

Boole's

Calculus in

250-261.

(Suggests improvements probability with

a

Boole's

Logic," pp. logic, es

of rela

pecially in the
The tive association

representation of particular propositions.

of

the

notion of

frequency
Natural

became

leading
of

idea

Peirce's

thought.)
2.

"On

the

Classification

Arguments,"
between the

pp.

261-

287.

(A

suggestive
the

distinction of
an

leading
Contains

principle and
also
an

premise

argument.

interestingnote

(pp. 283-284) denying the posi-

BIBLIOGRAPHY
tivistic maxim is not 3. "On
a

311

that, "no
of

hypothesis is
pp.

admissible

which

capable of verification
New
are:

by direct observation.") 287-298.

to
a

List

Categories,"

The

cate

gories
Relation

Being, Quality (Reference (Reference

to
an

Ground),

to

Correlate), Representation
Substance.
,

(Reference
has
for

Interpretant)
all include

"Logic
not

its subject-genus

symbols
terms,

and

merely

concepts."
arguments.
4. "Upon
are

Symbols

propositions, and
"There the truths

the

Logic of Mathematics,"
follow

pp.

402-412.

certain

general propositions from

and

which

of 5. "Upon
432.

mathematics

syllogistically." Extension,"
to pp.
use as

Logical Comprehension (Interesting historical

terms

416of
to

references
on

the

these their

and

an

attack

the

supposed

rule

inverse of
a

proportionality.)
Notation for the

B.

"

Description
Memoires

Logic

of Vol.

Relations," in
9

of

the

American the

Academy,
of

(1870),

pp.

317-378.
to

(Shows

relation than
to

inclusion
use

between

classes
Ex

be

more

fundamental Booleian

Boole's

of equality.

tends

the

calculus

DeMorgan's
Journal
to

logic of relative

terms.) C.
"

On

the Vol.

Algebra
3

of

Logic,"
pp.

American

of Mathematics, by
Schroeder
as

(1880),

15-57. in

(Referred

Peirce's

Hauptwerk
i., p.

"Vorlesungen

iiber die

Algebra

der

Logik," Vol.
"".
"

107.)
American Journal

On

the Vol.

Logic of Number,"
4

of Mathematics,
from

(1881),

pp.

85-95. Algebra of Relatives," Reprinted

Contribution
the

E.

"Brief

Description ??,
pp. 1-6.

of

the

F.

"

On

the

Algebra of Logic: A

to

Philosophy
Vol

of

Notation," American
pp. 180-202.

Journal

of Mathematics,

7 (1884),

G. "A

Theory
Universe
"

of

Probable
of in Marks
"

Inference" and
on

and the
"

notes

"On

Limited
"

Logic of Relatives
of the

in

Studies

Logic

by

members
pp.

Johns

Hopkins

University," Boston, 1883,

H.
"

126-203.
7, pp.
19-40.

The "The

Regenerated Logic
elaborate of review of

Logic," Monist, Vol.

Vol. of his

Relatives," Monist,
own

7, pp.

161-217.

(An
way

development
of

logic of relatives, by

Schroeder's
etc.

book.) Chance,"
North American

/. Miscellaneous
i.

Notes,
of

Review

Venn's

"Logic

of

Review,
a.

July, 1867.

"On

the

Application of Logical Analysis

to

Multiple

AI-

312

BIBLIOGRAPHY

gebra," Proceedings (1875),

"

of the American
'

Academy,
"

Vol.

10

PP-

392-394-

3.

Note

on

Grassman's

Calculus

of

Extension,'
13

Proceed
pp.

ings of the American

116.

Academy,
Vol.

Vol.

(1878),

115-

4. "Note 5. Notes

on

Conversion," Mind,
Additions
to

i, p.

424.
"

and

Benjamin

Peirce's

Linear

Asso

ciative Vol.
6.
"

Algebra," (1881),
pp.

American

Journal

of

Mathematics,

Q2ff.,especially pp.
American Journal

221-229.

Logical
Vol.
i

Machines," (1888).

of

Psychology,

7. "Infinitesimals,"Science, Vol.
8. "Some

(1900), p.
Vol.
18

430.

Amazing

Mazes,"
Vol.
19

Monist,

(April and

July,

1908), and
9. "On

(Jan., 1909). Logic"

of

Non-Aristotelian of " Certain Son

(Letter), Monist, Vol. Logic.

1903. Boston.

20.

J. A

Syllabus
Mudge
in

Topics

Alfred

(a four

page

brochure).
of

K.

Articles

Baldwin's

"Dictionary

Philosophy"
and

on:

laws

of

thought,

leading

principle, logic (exact

symbolic),
in

modality, negation, predicate and

predication,probable

ference, quality, quantity, relatives, significant, simple, sub

ject,syllogism, theory,

truth

and and

falsity universal, universe, parts.

Measurement.

whole validity, verification,

III. Researches
A. General
1.

in the and

Theory

and

Methods

of

Astronomic. the

"On

Theory

of

Errors U.

of

Observation," Report Survey

of
for

of the
pp.

Superintendent
220-224.
2.

of the

S. Coast

1870,

"Note

on

the U.

Theory
with

of

Economy
for relation

Research," Report
197-201. the

of the
paper

S. Coast

Survey
the

1876, pp.
between

(This

deals
cost

utilityand
Times,"
to

the 3.

of

diminishing the Recording

a

probable
Mean of

error.) Observed
No.
15

"Apparatus
U. of

for

S. Coast

Survey, 1877.
dei Minimi Vol.
i

Appendix

Report

1875.
Metodo

4. "Ferrero's nal

Quadrati,"
(1878),
Annals
pp.

American

Jour

of Mathematics,

55-63.
the
9

5. "Photometric

Researches," of Harvard
Results.

of

Astronomical

Observatory
181.

College, Vol.
Measurement of

(1878),

pp.

i-

6. "Methods

and

Gravity.

Wash

ington.
7.
"

1879.
and Results. A

Methods tions of

Catalogue

of Stars

for Observa

Latitude.

Washington.

1879.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
8.

313
'Diffraction Vol.
2

"On

the American 330-347-

Ghosts

in

Rutherford's

Spectra,'" (1879), pp. Meter,"

51Jour

Journal

of Mathematics,
of

"

9.

Note

on

Comparison
Journal

Wave-Length
18

with

American
10.

of Science, Vol.
Vol. of 453.

(1879),

P-

"A

Quincuncial Projection of the Sphere," American

nal

of Mathematics,
Measure

(1879),
of

PP-

394"

396.

11.

"Numerical Vol.
4

Success

Predictions," Science,

(1884),

p.

12.

"

Proceedings

Assay
on

Commission

"

Washington,

1888.

(Joint Reports
B.

Weighing.)
Pendulum.
at

Geodetic
1.

Researches.

The of

"Measurement and
pp.

Gravity
410-416.

Initial Stations
U. S. Coast

in

America

Europe,"
202-237 1'influence

Report of
and de

the

Survey, 1876,
1'oscillation
Inter 171and

2.

"

De du

la flexibilite du

trepied sur

pendule

reversion," Conference

Geodesique
pp.

nationale

(1877) Comptes
paper
was

Rendus, Berlin, 1878, by

of

187.
was
"

(This
followed

introduced
notes

Plantamour

by
of

the

Appolzer.)
upon

3.

On
of

the Influence the

of Internal the

Friction

the

Correction

Length

Second's Vol.

Pendulum,"
13

Proceedings
pp.

of the American
"

Academy, Swinging
18

(1878),
for the

396-401.

4.

On

Method of

of

Pendulums M.

Determina Jour

tion nal 5. "Results

Gravity proposed by
of Pendulum
20

Faye,"

American

of Science, Vol.

(1879), pp. 112-119. Journal Experiments," American Report of the

Earth S.

of

Science, Vol.
6. "Flexure Coast 7. "On the the
of

(1880). Supports,"
pp.

Pendulum

U.

5.

Survey, 1881,
Deduction of Pendulum

350-441. of the Ellipticity from Coast

the

Experiment," Report
pp.

of the U.
in

Survey, 1881,
8. "Determinations

442-456.

of

Gravity

at

Stations

Pennsylvania,"
19

Report
pp. 9.
"

of U. S. Coast
of the
pp.

Survey,

1883, Appendix
the U.

and

473-486.
the Use

On

Noddy,"
475-482.
of
a

Report of

S.

Coast

Survey,
10.
"

1884,

Effect

of the

Flexure

Pendulum U. S.

upon

the

Period

of

Oscillation,"Report
pp.
11.

of

the

Coast

Survey,

1884,

483-485the Influence the and Small of

a

"On

Noddy,
of
a

and

of

Unequal

Tempera of the
509-512.

ture

upon

Periods

Pendulum,"
for in

Report
"

U. C.

S. Coast
"

Geodetic

Survey

1885, pp.

Psychologic.

On

Differences

Sensation

(in

co-

3H

BIBLIOGRAPHY
operation
Vol. 3
with

J. Jastrow), National
pp.
i-u.

Academy

of Sciences

(1884),

IV. Philologic.

"Shakespearian
North

Pronunciation"

(in cooperation
Vol.

with

J. B.
pp.

Noyes),

American

Review,

98

(April, 1864),

342-369.

V.

Contributions
H.

to

the

Nation.

Lazelle, Capt. Newcomb, Read, C,

Rood,
Note
on

M.,

One

Law

in

Nature.
Vol. Vol.

Nation,
683. 718.
29,

Vol.

17,

No.

419.

S., Popular Astronomy.

27, No.

Theory
the

of

Logic, 1878.

28, No.
Vol.

O.

N., Modern
American

Chromatics, 1879.
Journal in Deductive of

No.

746.
29, No.
32, 50,

of Mathematics.

Vol. Vol. Vol. Vol.

756.
822. 1303.

Jevons,

W.

S., Studies

Logic,

1880.

No. No. Nos.

Ribot, Th., The

Psychology

Attention, 1890.

James, W.,
I3S8.

The

Principles of Psychology, 1890.

New

53,

1357

and

Comte,
Vol.

A.

(F. Harrison, editor), The

No. N.

Calendar

of

Great

Men,

1802

54,

1386.

Lobatchewsky,
on

(Translator:
of Man

G.

B.

Halsted), Geometrical
Vol. 54, Vol. his No.

Researches

the

Theory
The

Parallels, 1891.
of

1389.
1391.

Lombroso, C.,
Note
on

Genius, 1891.
of

54, No.

William
1394.

James'

abridgment

Psychology, 1892.
of

Vol.

54,

No.

McClelland,
54, No.

W.

J., A

Treatise

on

the

Geometry
of

the

Circle,1891.
Vol. 54, No.

Vol.

1395.

Buckley, Arabella Hale, Mach,

E. E.

B., Moral

Teachings

Science, 1892.
1893.
Vol. The

1405.

E., A

New

England
T.

Boyhood,

57, No.

1468.
of

(Translator:
Vol. 57, No.

J. McCormack),

Science

Mechanics,

1893.

1475. and and

Ritchie, D. Huxley,
T.

G., Darwin H., Method

Hegel, 1893. Results, 1893.

Letters
F.

Vol.

57,

No.

1482.

Vol.

58, No.
Scott.

1489.
Vol.

Scott, Sir Walter, Familiar Gilbert,W.

1494

of Sir Walter

58, No.
Vol.

1493.

(Translator:
No. 1495.

P.

Mottelay), Magnetic
of

Bodies.

58, No.

and A.

Forsyth,

R., Theory J., A

of

Functions
on

Complex
of

Variable, 1893;
1893 ; and
No.

and

Harkness,
E., Traite
A Short Sketch

Treatise

the

Theory

Functions,
1498.
Vol. 59, of

Picard,

d'analyse, 1893.
of

Vol.

58, No.
13,

Helmholtz, Sept.
J. H.
A.

1894.
A

1524.
and

Windelband,

W.

(Translator:
R. and

Tufts),
C.

History

Philosophy;
of

Falkenberg,

(Translator:

Armstrong),

History

Modern
Philoso 59, Nos.

Philosophy;
phy;
1526
and and

Bascom,

J., An

Historical
of Modern

Interpretation of Philosophy.
Vol.

Burt, B. C., A
1527.

History

BIBLIOGRAPHY Spinoza
1894.

315
and Amelia H.

(Translators: W.
Vol. 59, No.

H.

White

Stirling), Ethics,

1532.

Watson,

J., Comte,

Mill, and

Spencer, 1895.
of the Philosophy ebenen and

Vol.

60, No.

1554. and and Eber-

Jones, H., A
F.

Critical Account

of Lotze, 1895;

hard, V., Die velopment

of Inductive

Grundbegriffe der

Geometrie, 1895;
and

Klein,
the De

(Translator: A.
of Modern

Ziwet), Riemann Mathematics,

Vol. Rise in

his Significancefor

1895;

Davis, N.
Vol.

K., Elements 62, No.

1737. Solar

Logic, 1895.
Intellectual

61, No.

1566.
1592.

Benjamin, P., The Darwin,

G.

Electricity, 1895.
1898.
Vol. Phenomena in

Baldwin, J. M., The H., The

Vol.

Story of the
Tides and

Mind,

67, No.
the

Kindred

System,

1898.

67, No.

1747.

Marshall, H. R., Instinct and Britten, F. J., Old

No. Clocks and

Reason, 1898.
Watches
and

Vol.

68, No.

1774.

their Makers,

1899. 1899.

Vol.

69, 69,

1778.

Renouvier,
No.

Ch.,

et

Prat, L.
Comte

La

Nouvelle

Monadologie, Kidd, 1899;

69, No. 1784.
Vol. and

Vol.

1779.
to

Mackintosh, R., From

Better- World

Benjamin
Vol.

Moore,

J. H.,

Philosophy, 1899. Many-sided

Mecanisme and de

Ford, P.

L., The d', Le

Franklin, 1899.
la vie moderne, of

69, No.
Vol.

1793. 70, No.

Avenel, G.
No.

1900.

1805.
70,

Reid, W., Memoirs

1806. F.

Correspondence

Lyon
Vol.

Playfair, 1899.
70, No. 1816.

Vol.

Stevenson, Wallace, A.

S., Robert

Grosseteste, 1899.
to

Thilly, F., Introduction Sime, J., William

of

Ethics,
and His

1900.

Vol.

70, No.

1825.
72, No.

R., Studies, Scientific and

Herschel

Social, 1900.
1900.

Vol.

1854.

Work,

Vol.

72, No.

1856.

Rand, B. (Editor), The

men

Life,Unpublished
Earl
of

Letters,and
1900;

Philosophical Regi Robertson, J. M.

1900.

Anthony,

Shaftesbury,
etc., by

and

(Editor), Characteristics of Men,

No.

Shaftesbury,
Vol. Action 72, No.

Vol.

72,

1857.

Bacon, Rev. Jordan, W.

J. M., By

Land

and

Sea,
Vol.

1901.

1865.
Gravitation

L., Essays in Illustration Phenomena,

Vocabulaire
1900.

of

the
72,

of Astral

in Natural

No.
1901.

1876.
Vol. 72, No.
1901.

Goblot, E., Le Fraser, A.

No. C.

Philosophique,
Works of

1877.
Vol.
73,

(Editor), The

George

Berkeley,

1883.
Vol. of 73, No.

Frazer, P., Bibliotics, 1901. Caldecott, A., The

Vol. Review 73, No. of four

1883.
and

Philosophy
1885.

Religion in England
Vol. 73, No. and

America, 1901.

physical books.

1887.
1901.

Maher,

M.,

Psychology:
1901.

Empirical
Vol.

Rational,
1895.
of

Vol.

73,

No.

1892. Mezes, S. E., Ethics, Report of the Meeting

1901.

73, No.

of the

National

Academy

Sciences, Philadelphia,

Vol.

73, No.

1899.

316

BIBLIOGRAPHY
the Lines of Modern

Crozier, J. B., History of Intellectual Developments

Evolution. Vol.

on

III., 1901,

Vol.

74,

No.

1908.
and

Theoretical Richardson, E. C, Classification, No.

1913.

Practical,1901.
The

Vol.

74,

Vallery-Radot,
Pasteur.

R.

(Translator:
74, No.
1914.

Mrs.

R.

L.

Devonshire),
Vol. 74, No.

Life

of

Vol.

Giddings, F. H., Inductive Report

D.
on

Sociology,
the National
1921.

1902.

1918.

the Meeting
1902.

of

Academy
1902.

of Sciences, Washington,

C.,
E. H.

Vol.

74, No.

Emerson,

R., The H., A

Story of the

Vine,
Ethics

Vol.

74, No.
1901.

1926.
Vol. 75, No.

Joachim,
1932.

Study

of

the

of

Spinoza,
Vol.

Review

of four

chemistry text-books,
World
a

1902.

75, No.

1934.

Royce, J., The

I93SNo.

and

the

Individual, Vol.

II., 1901.

Vol.
1900,

75, No. Vol. 70,

(For 1814.)

review

of Vol. I.,probably by Peirce, see

Thorpe, T. E., Essays in Historical Paulsen, F., Immanuel

1941.

Chemistry,
Life and

1902.

Vol.
1902.

75, No. Vol.

1938.
75, No.

Kant:

His

Doctrine,

Aikens, H. Drude,

A., The

Principles of Logic,
of in

1902.

Vol.

75, No.
1944.

1942.

P., The

Theory
Vol.

Optics, Space,
1947.

1902. 1902

Vol.
; and

75, No.

Valentine, E. S., Travels tion, 1902. Baillie, J. B., The

No. 1950.

Walker, F., Aerial

Naviga
Vol.

75, No.

Origin and

Significanceof Hegel's Logic, Equations, Vol. IV.,

the of

1901.

75,

Forsyth, A. R., Theory of Differential

No. 1952. Pleasures and of Roses

1902.

Vol.

75,

Ellwanger, G. W., The Earle, Alice

1956.

Table,

1902.

Vol.
1902.

75, No. Vol. 75,

1955. No.

M.,

Sundials

Yesterday,
1902.

Smith, Rev. Report

D.
on

T., Euclid:
the

His

Life

and

System,

Vol.

76, No.

1961.

Meeting
Vol.

of the National

Academy
76, No.

of Sciences, Washington,

C.,

1903.

76, No.

1974.
1902.

Hibben, J. G., Hegel's Logic,

1903.

Vol.

1977. of

Mellor, J. W., Higher Mathematics

Vol. C.

for Students

Chemistry
76, No.

and

Physics,

76, No.

1977.

Sturt, H.
Vol.

(Editor), Personal
1980.

Idealism, 1902.

Vol.

1979.

Baldwin, J. M., Dictionary of Philosophy and

76, No.
Kant's

Psychology, Vol. II., 1902.

Dr. P.

Note

on

Prolegomene
1981.
in the

edited

in

English by

Carus,
77, No.

1903.

Vol.

76, No.

Smith, N., Studies Clerke, Agnes

Waves and

Cartesian

Philosophy, 1902.
1902.

Vol.

1985.

Hinds, J. I. D., Inorganic Chemistry, M., Problems

Waves in

Vol.

77, No. Vol.

; and

1986.
77,

Astrophysics,
and their 1902.

1903.

No.

1987.

Michelson, A. A., Light

Uses, 1903
Vol.
77,

Fleming, J. A.,

Ripples in Water,

No.

1989.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Note Note Sir Norman British and

317
1794.

on on

Lockyer.
American

Vol.

77, No.

Welby,

Lady

Victoria, What

Vol. Science, 1903. and is Meaning? 1903; Vol. 77, No.

77, No. Russell

1996.

B,

The

Prin

ciples of Mathematics,
Note
on

1903.

1998.
of Functions, 1903. Vol.

the

Practical
1999.

Application
Vol.

of the

Theory

77, No.

Fahie, J. J., Galileo. Halsey, F. A., The

the Textile

78, No.
Vol.

201.5.

Metric

Fallacy, and
78, No.
of
an

Dale, S. S., The

2020.

Metric

Failure

in

Industry.

Newcomb,
2O2I.

S., The

Reminiscences

Astronomer,

1903.

Vol.

78, No.

Boole, Mrs.

M.

E., Lectures
of the

on

the Logic of Arithmetic, 1903 of Integers, 1903. National Vol. of

and

Bowden,
2024.

J., Elements Report

D.
on

Theory
of the

78, No.

the

Meeting

Academy

Sciences, Washington,
Philoso

Vol. 78, No. 2026. C., 1904. Kathleen L. (Translator: Levy-Bruhl,

de

Beaumont-Klein),
2026.

The

phy
Duff, R.

of Auguste

Comte,

1903.

Vol.

78, No.
Vol. Ethical

Turner, W., History of Philosophy, A., Spinoza's Political

the
and

1903.

79, No.

2036.
Vol. 79,

Philosophy.

No.

2038.

Allbutt, T. C., Notes

79, No.
2039.

on

Composition
Mathematical

of

Scientific Papers, 1904.

Vol.

Sylvester, J. J., The

No. 2045.

Collected

Papers of,
and

Vol.

I.

Vol.

79,

Renouvier,

Ch., Les

Derniers
1903.

Entretiens,
Vol. 79, No. Vol.

1904,

Dewey,
2048.

J., Studies

in

Logical Theory, Royce,

Vol.

2046.
79, and No.

J., Outlines M.,

No. the Vol. M.

of

Psychology.

Straton, G.
79,
on

Experimental Psychology
2055.

its Bearing

upon

Culture.

Report

Meeting
79, No.

of

the

National

Academy
the Child

of

Sciences, New

York,

1904.

2057.

Boole, Mrs.
80, No.

E., The

Preparation

of

for

Science, 1904.

Vol.

2062.

Royce,

J., Herbert J., The

80, No.

Spencer,
Becquerel
2066.

1904.

Vol. and

80, No.
the

2065.

Strutt, R.
Vol.

Rays

Properties of

Radium,

1904.

Schuster, A., An
No. 2071. The

Introduction

to

the

Theory

of

Optics,

1904.

Vol.

80,

Tindlay, A.,
Report
D.
on

Phase

Rule

and

its

Application,1904. Academy
of

Vol. 80, No.

2074.

the

Meeting
Vol.

of the

National

Sciences,Washington,
and

C., 1905.

80, No.
as

2078.

Flint, R., Philosophy

Scientia Scientiarum, 1904;

Peirce, C. S.,
2079. also
a

Syllabus of Certain

Topics
and

of

Logic,

1903.

Vol.

80, No.

Arnold, R. B., Scientific Fact

on

Metaphysical Reality, 1904,

Vol.

Note

Mendeleeffs

Principlesof Chemistry.

80, No.

2083.

318
Note
on

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Ida

Freund's

The

Study

of

Chemical

Composition.

Vol.

80,

No.

2086.

Carnegie, Ross,
E.

A.,

James

Watt,
of

1905.

Vol.

80,
1905,

No. and Vol.

2087.

A., Foundations by
the

Sociology,

Sociological
81,
No.

Papers,

1905,

published Wundt,
W.

Sociological
E. Vol.
on

Society. Titchener),
No.
2090.

2089.
of

(Translator:
1904.

B.

Principles

Physiological

Psychology, Roscoe,
Nos H.

81,

E., A

Treatise
au

Chemistry,
1905. la Vol.

Vol.

I., 1905,
No. Vol.
2097.

and

de

Fleury,

M.,

Enfants H. Mr.
on

College,
Nature Hill's of
et

81,

Varigny,
Note
on

de,
G.

La W.

Vie,

1905.

81, 81,
of

No.
2103.

2101.

Moon the

Theory.
National

Vol.

Report

the Vol. Sir

Meeting
81,
Thomas No.

Academy

Sciences,

New

Haven.

1905.

2108.

Gosse,

E.,

Browne,

1905. 1905. Vol. Vol. National

2130.

Vol. Vol.

81, 82,

No.

2111.

Rutherford, Wallace, Haldane, Report

D.
on

E.,
A.

Radio-Activity,
My Life,
1905.

No.
2121.

2116.

R.,

82, 82,

No. No.

Elizabeth the

S., Descartes.
of the No.

2125.

Meeting
Vol.

Academy

of

Sciences,. Washington,

C,
H.

1906.

82,

Rogers,

J.
St.

(Editor),
1904.

Congress
Vol. of

of

Arts

and

Sciences,

Universal

Exposi

tion, Loeb,
the

Louis,

82,

No.

2136.
and

J., The
Proteids. H.

Dynamics
Vol. The
2141.

Living
No.
2140.

Matter;

Mann,

G.,

Chemistry

of

83,

Roscoe,
Vol.

E.,
No.

Life

and

Experiences

of

Sir

Henry

Enfield

Roscoe.

83,

Marshall,

T.,
H. W.

Aristotle's

Theory
Introduction

of

Conduct.
to

Vol. Vol.

83, 83,

No. No.

2150.

Joseph,

B., An

Logic.

2156.

OTHER

ARTICLES

AND

REVIEWS

Old

Stone

Mill
"

at

Newport,
of
3

Science,
the

4,

1884,

512. Am Soc.

Criticism

on

Phantasms
i,

Living,"

Proc.

Psychical

Re

search, Napoleon
Decennial

Vol.

No. The

(1887).
December
21

Intime,
Celebration Great

Independent,
of

and
n

December

28,
p. 620.

1893.

Clark of

University,

Science,

(1900),

Century's Campanus
French

Men 13

Science,
p.

Smithsonian

Institute

Reports,

1900.

Science, Academy
of

(1901),
N.

809.

Science,

Y.

Evening

Post,

March

5,

1904.