'Plain English' Executive Summary

Zero Carbon Island

Developing strategies and measures for steering the Isle of Man to ards !"ero carbon#
Executive Summary

Zero Carbon Island

$lice %uayle

'Plain English' Executive Summary

"Zero Carbon Island"

Developing strategies and measures for steering the Isle of Man towards Zero Carbon! p"# $ Introduction p"# % &ioneers p"' % Challenges ( advantages of Islands) &otential Strategies p"* ( + % &otential measures to reduce the need for fossil fuels on the Isle of Man p", % -eferences and notes" p". % /ppendix % S012 analysis Introduction &his Master's thesis loo's at ays that the Isle of Man (a self)governing island of *+,--people in the Irish Sea. could reduce its oil and gas consumption, increase efficiency and benefit the economy both at an Island and household scale/ 'Island people have a natural sense of a limited resource. They understand that to be politically independent you need to be economically independent, and to be economically independent, you need to be energy independent'. (Rachel Bruhnke (1 &his 0uote illustrates a clear argument for reducing the need for fossil fuel imports/ 1il and gas imports are a ma2or cost to the Isle of Man's economy 3 all fuel imported e0uals cash exported/ $ny energy price rise drives up inflation, and pushes up costs to business and households/ &he elderly or infirm, children, and those on lo incomes are particularly vulnerable ('./ 4orld oil price spi'es are usually follo ed soon after by global recessions ( 34/ &he orld oil price has been close to 56-- a barrel for the last 7 years, an all)time high ( *./ Part of this thesis considers strategies used by several places that have managed to ma'e a ma2or reduction in their oil consumption/ I also loo'ed at some island communities that have faced resource challenges/ It emerges that islands face particular challenges and opportunities/ $nother section examined strategies that might prove useful here in the I1M/ Several Manx politicians and civil servants ith an input into the Island's energy policy ere intervie ed to ascertain their priorities, some long)term goals, and to help understand the existing system/ &he existing system as further examined to identify strengths and opportunities, vulnerabilities and constraints, unused resources and unmet needs/ $ 'focus group' as also run to as' some similar 0uestions ith members of the public/ &hen, a systemic analysis of different sectors as used to develop some pac'ages of potential measures for reducing the need to use fossil fuels on the I1M/ &ioneers 564 Denmar' and S eden have both reduced their oil use by half since the the early 689-s (follo ing the 1PEC oil crisis hich 0uadrupled oil prices. 5+4/ &he Danish Island of Samso has become 'net "ero carbon' in 6- years/ &his means that they produce and export more rene able energy than they import in fossil fuels/ Samso as a pilot pro2ect for Denmar' : the Danes plan to further greatly reduce their nation's use of fossil fuels 5,4/

Zero Carbon Island

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'Plain English' Executive Summary

$ll three places dre up long term plans and all used some similar strategies/ &hese include:) 6. Some ingenious use of design and technology: ' or'ing smarter, not harder'/ 7. Sound schemes to finance or under rite investment: these often paid bac' good returns/ ;. <ery strong local and public o nership of local energy generation and supply technology/ =ocal people felt proud of their o nership of their o n local resources, and benefited financially/ &his o nership ties in ith the very strong local government in these countries/ >. &he Scandinavians have been particularly good at spotting surplus or asted resources, and matching these to places there is a need/ ?or instance, nearly all Danish electric po er stations pipe the surplus heat produced to local homes/ Scandinavians also seem to ma'e good use of biological and agricultural astes to generate energy/ +. &hey all developed long term goals, dre up long term plans, and stuc' ith their programme, though they ere flexible as to ho things ere achieved/ E/g/, &he pro2ect manager in Samso ended up spending the first t o years of the ten)year pro2ect feeding Islanders ca'e, coffee and beer, hilst they decided ho to ma'e the idea or' best for them/ @. Each place seemed to have a pragmatic, people)centred and adaptable approach, probably lin'ed to their strong political culture of consensus/ Challenges and advantages of Islands $nother part of this dissertation examined studies of various islands/ It seems that Islands face particular challenges and advantages: &he advantages usually include abundant rene able resources, a manageable scale, and clear boundaries so that energy imports and exports can be measured fairly easily/ Islands can theoretically be ideal pilot locations to trial certain technologies or systems/ Disadvantages ere greater for independent islands li'e the I1M, compared to islands li'e Samso ( hich is part of Denmar'./ &hese include lac' of access to specialist s'ills and 'no ) ho , and infrastructure/ &he biggest disadvantage for independent islands is lac' of access to finance for infrastructure and technology ( 7./ 1ne 0uite famous study of islands is 'Collapse'( ..: this loo's at some islands in history that have faced severe resource challenges 3 usually caused by too many people overexploiting or asting native resources/ Some of these, li'e Icelanders, adapted and found ne habits, s'ills and resources (they caught more fish. and conserved their existing resources/ 1thers, li'e the Areenlanders, asted their time and energy on pointless displacement activity or prestige pro2ects (hunting polar bears for their fur, then trading this for gold., and their civilisation disappeared/ Particular traps seem to be either responding to crisis ith prestige pro2ects to appease the gods (eg Easter Island heads. or by infighting/ &otential strategies 1n a different tac', I loo'ed at many strategies and approaches people have used to try to cut fossil fuel use/ It seems most effective to use a mix of strategies and approaches/ Bey points from this: &echnology and information can be effective tools to ma'e life more convenient,

Zero Carbon Island

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'Plain English' Executive Summary

comfortable and efficient, and encourage changes in habits/ Co ever, a technology is pointless if people cannot figure out ho to use it or repair it/ Aood planning of infrastructure, transport and land use is exceptionally important to facilitate long term change/ Changes in habits can be greatly facilitated by technology D infrastructure 5#84/ 1ne useful tool I loo'ed at as a systems approach ( ##4/ =ocal governments using a systems approach to cut fossil fuel use tend to follo this approach: 6. Establish clear long term goals based on your social values/ 7. =in' up ith others trying to do similar things/ ;. Consider your area's particular strengths, ea'nesses, opportunities and threats, unused resources and unmet needs/ $ big priority is to identify vulnerabilities in order to address them (#'./ &he ma2or vulnerability for many places seems to be the economy/ $nother ma2or vulnerability is transport: one local official's top priority for reducing oil dependence is: Etac'le transport and land use, or you may as ell give up no E (#3./ &a'ing steps to reduce fossil fuel dependence often seems to have benefits for 0uality of life, health, and the economy 5#*4" I intervie ed some of our MCBs and civil servants, for information, and to as' them the priorities they ould assess measures by/ I also examined the I1M existing system to determine strengths, ea'nesses, opportunities, threats, unused resources and unmet needs (the information for this came from the intervie s, and from existing facts and figures./ ?rom this I developed some potential goals for the I1M for sectors such as housing, transport and economy/ &he aim as that suggested measures ould be practicable, and good for people, the economy and for cutting fossil fuel use/ &hen I devised some steps to ards each of these goals, tailored to the Isle of Man/ $ number of approaches are necessary: for instance, increasing use of rene able energy may not address fuel poverty: that ill probably re0uire additional measures/ &he aim is to integrate a variety of approaches to ensure potential measures together 3 are politically, socially and technically feasible build local resilience and address vulnerabilities and unmet needs (e/g/ fuel poverty. accommodate a number of differing vie points and ob2ectives are as idely beneficial as possible are as self)sustaining as possible

Fou can see all of the suggestions (if you li'e. in the full thesis, at: http:GG /scribd/comGdocG6*6699*>@GZero)Carbon)Island)$lice)%uayle)MSc);nov6;)pdf/ &otential measures $ small selection of potential measures are sho n belo , in a grid to illustrate ho they perform against the top @ criteria of the MCBs and civil servants intervie ed: (&hese estimates are sub2ective and indicative/ ?urther research and calculation ould be necessary to produce specific 0uantifiable figures for assessing proposals./ &he estimated performance of each proposal is colour coded as follo s: very useful useful unrelated not v/ useful hindrance

Zero Carbon Island

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'Plain English' Executive Summary

&able 9/77/ $ simple multi)criteria evaluation of a number of potential measures Estimates of performance according to criteria -eputat$ Econ" 9uic: Secure Economic ion Continue to develop Clean &ech Sector Develop ecosystem finance, Clean &ech funds D similar business Heduce need to use fossil fuels Ise local energy Develop a secure, lo )carbon electric supply Develop financial vehicles to recirculate cash on)island // D to finance measures to reduce use of fossil fuels Develop offshore rene able energy hen conditions permit Develop energy D efficiency s'ills and 'no ledge net or's for business Pay ME$J for energy services rather than electricity units (e/g/ street lights. Install real)time electricity usage displays in homes D buildings Investment scheme to upgrade housing stoc' 4ee'ly or daily farmers mar'et in main to n ?acilitate lo )carbon transport choices (Cycling, al'ing, buses, trains. Improve bus passenger facilities D information Kus prioritisation at selected traffic lights Consider introducing Southern commuter train Improve cycle routes Consider introducing insurance liability favouring al'ersGcyclists Improve standards in private rented sector Ise planning system to aid lo ) carbon transport Ise planning system to encourage compact, al'able, attractive settlements Encourage resilient, diverse local food industry Hesearch ays D schemes to improve homes of elderly ;enefit -esults Supply -esilience

&otential measures

Cost$ Effective

Zero Carbon Island

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'Plain English' Executive Summary -eferences and notes<

&his version of the thesis produced 7-67G 7-6; Cover image from: L$S$GAS?CGME&IGMapan Space Systems, and I/S/GMapan $S&EH Science &eam/ Clic' here for a closer loo': http:GGaster eb/2pl/nasa/govGgalleryGimagesGman/2pg =ME$ N Manx Electricity $uthority/ #4 Hachel Kruhn'e, spea'ing in the film: The power of community (7--@. Directed by ?aith Morgan O?ilmP Fello Springs, 1hio, Community Solution/ '4 1il and gas import costs to economy: 'Energy price rises drive inflation': OECD Factbook 2013/ Economic, Environmental and Socal StatisticsG PricesG Prices and interest ratesG Inflation (CPI., 'During the years presented (7---, 7-6- and 7-66., the main driver of total inflation has been energy prices'/ http:GG /oecd)ilibrary/orgGeconomicsGoecd)factboo')7-6;Qfactboo')7-6;)en 'and push up costs to households': Cousehold spending on energy as R66-- per person in the IB in 7-67/ $pplying this figure to the I1M ould give total costs to I1M households of R8+ million in 7-67/ Costs are li'ely to be higher on the I1M, though/ https:GG /gov/u'GgovernmentGstatistical)data)setsGannual)domestic)energy)price)statistics '&he elderly or infirm, children, and those on lo incomes are particularly vulnerable' DECC (7-67. Annua report on fue po!erty "tati"tic" 2012# $vailable from: https:GG /gov/u'GgovernmentGuploadsGsystemGuploadsGattachmentQdataGfileG@@-6@G+79-) annual)report)fuel)poverty)stats)7-67/pdf (see particularly ?ig 7/6. 34 '4orld oil price spi'es are usually follo ed soon after by global recessions': 4ar ic' Iniversity economist $ndre 1s ald amongst others, has noted that every sharp increase in the oil price in the past >- years has been follo ed soon after by a global recession/ Aas prices have been lin'ed to oil prices so these rose as ell/ E&he single best cyclical indicator for the orld economy is the price of oilE he told the Le For' &imes in 7--;/ $ew %ork Time" (7--;. 'Mump in oil price puts ne strains on the orld economy' March 7/ http:GG /nytimes/comG7--;G-;G-7GbusinessG2ump)in)price)of)oil)puts)ne )strains)on) economy/html *4 1il prices: /oilprice/net 1il prices in context of ma2or recent historical events: (and illustrating recessions follo ing oil price spi'es.: http:GG

/ trg/comGprices/htm

Zero Carbon Island

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'Plain English' Executive Summary

+4 Denmar' and S eden have both reduced their oil use by half since the the early 689-s: see section '"* of thesis for charts, and /ppendices 'b and 'c for strategies used, also: International Energy $gency (7-66. &EA ener'y "tati"tic"( "hare of tota primary ener'y "upp y in 200)( Denmark, 1ECDGIE$/ $vailable from: http:GG /iea/orgGstatsGpdfQgraphsGDB&PES/pdf at: http:GG /iea/orgGstatsGgraphresults/aspSC1IL&HFQC1DENDB ($ccessed ;rd Mune 7-67./ International Energy $gency (7-66. &EA ener'y "tati"tic"( "hare of tota primary ener'y "upp y in 200)( *we+en, 1ECDGIE$/ $vailable from: http:GG /iea/orgGstatsGgraphresults/aspSC1IL&HFQC1DEN &' ($ccessed ;rd Mune 7-67./ &he t o 1PEC oil crises 0uadrupled oil prices over the 689-s: http:GG / trg/comGprices/htm

,4 &he Danish Island of Samso has become 'net "ero carbon' in 6- years/ &his means that they produce and export more rene able energy than they import in fossil fuels: See $ppx 'c and Samso Energy $cademy: PlanEnergiG Samso Energy $cademy (7--9. *am"o , A renewab e ener'y i" an+( 10 year" of +e!e opment an+ e!a uation# $vailable from: http:GGenergia'ademiet/d'G p) contentGuploadsGsamso)rene able)energy)island/pdf ($ccessed 6>th May 7-67./ Samso as a pilot pro2ect for Denmar' : the Danes plan to further greatly reduce their nation's use of oil and fossil fuels/ See /ppendix 'c> and: Hoell, B/ (7-67. -enewab e Ener'y Comp e.ity, McIntire $broad/ $vailable from: http:GGpages/shanti/virginia/eduGmcintireabroadG7-67G->G7+Grene able)energy)complexityG ($ccessed 6+th May 7-67./
Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy (7-66. Ener'y *trate'y 20/0 0 from coa , oi an+ 'a" to 'reen ener'y# $vailable from: http:GG /ens/d'GDocumentsGLetboghandelT7-) T7-publi'ationerG7-66GEnergyQStrategyQ7-+-/pdf ($ccessed 6@th May 7-67./

64 Strategies used by S eden, Denmar' and Samso: See /ppendices 'a> 'b> and 'c of the thesis, and relevant references/ Danish Energy $gency (7-6-. Dani"h ener'y po icy 1)10 to 2010 , 2i"ion( 1003 in+epen+ence from fo""i fue ", Stoc'holm, DE$/ $vailable from: http:GG /ens/d'Gen) ISGInfoGne sG?actsheetGDocumentsGDBEpol/pdfT7-engels'T7-tilT7- eb/pdf ($ccessed 6>th $pril 7-67. 74 $dvantages and disadvantages of Islands: see section '"+ of thesis/ .4 'Collapse': Section '"+"# of thesis, and: Diamond, M/ (7--@. Co ap"e( how "ocietie" choo"e to fai or "ur!i!e / Penguin, =ondon/

Zero Carbon Island

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'Plain English' Executive Summary

#84 Aood planning of infrastructure, transport and land use is exceptionally important to facilitate long term change: see section '","' of thesis, e/g: =erch, D/ (7--9. 4o"t carbon citie"( 4 annin' for ener'y an+ c imate uncertainty( A 'ui+ebook on peak oi an+ ' oba warmin' for oca 'o!ernment" / Post Carbon Institute, Post Carbon Press, Sebastopol, California/ $vailable from: /postcarboncities/net ($ccessed *th Mune 7-67./ ##4 Systems $pproach: See /ppendices #b to #e> and *a to *c" #'4 Systems $pproach used by cities and local authorities, to start reducing the need to use oil and other fossil fuels/ See /ppendix *a/ =erch, D/ (7--9. 4o"t carbon citie"( 4 annin' for ener'y an+ c imate uncertainty( A 'ui+ebook on peak oi an+ ' oba warmin' for oca 'o!ernment" / Post Carbon Institute, Post Carbon Press, Sebastopol, California/ $vailable from: /postcarboncities/net ($ccessed *th Mune 7-67./ #34 &he ma2or vulnerability for many places seems to be the economy/ $nother ma2or vulnerability is transport: one local official's top priority for reducing oil dependence is: Etac'le transport and land use, or you may as ell give up no E/ (in =erch, 7--9. #*4 &a'ing steps to reduce fossil fuel dependence often seems to have benefits to 0uality of life, health, and the economy/ See for example Curitiba, Kra"il (sections '"+"' and '","'. and Portland, 1regon (described in =erch, 7--9./
Portland (7-67. The 4ort an+ p an/ $vailable from: /pdxplan/com ($ccessed 9th Mune 7-67./

A con!enient truth( 5rban "o ution" from Curitiba, 6ra7i (7--@. Directed by Aiovanni <a" Del Kello O?ilmP, Maria <a" PhotographyG Del Kello Pictures/ $vailable from: http:GGmariava"photo/comGcuritibaQpagesGcuritibaQdvd/html ?or instance, benefits of investment in cycling and al'ing: 'achieving a ide variety of benefits including increased business investment, accident reductions, air)0uality improvements, reduced neighbourhood severance, more attractive living and or'ing surroundings and improved retail vitality/' Davis, $, (7-6-. 2a ue for 8oney( An Economic A""e""ment of &n!e"tment in 9a kin' an+ Cyc in'# A!ai ab e from( /apho/org/u'GresourceGvie /aspxSHIDN86++; Kritish Medical $ssociation (7-67. :ea thy tran"port ; :ea thy i!e"/ $vailable from: http:GGbma/org/u'Gtransport : http:GG /cycling)embassy/org/u'GdocumentGhealthy)transport) healthy)lives ($ccessed 6st September 7-6;.

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/ppendix *"b /dapted S012 analysis

&he main systemic analysis of this study is an extended and modified S41& analysis ( hich I have devised./ $ basic S41& analysis examines the Strengths, 4ea'nesses, 1pportunities and &hreats of a situation, organisation, locality etc/ (Cities $llianceG IC=EI, 7--9./ &he adapted version as used to analyse various subsystems or sectors of the Isle of Man (e/g housing, transport, and energy systems. to identify: Strengths <ulnerabilities D constraints 1pportunities Inmet needs Inused resources

I also define some potential sustainable aims for each sectorGsubsystem/ &his dra s upon 1pen Iniversity courses &76> (7--8. and &UH7>* (7--9./ It also incorporates the concepts of =erch and Meado s, and the Cities $lliance/ &he Cities $llianceG IC=EI (7--9. recommend the use of S41& analysis of municipalities for urban planning/ Meado s (7--9. emphasises that the most important factors in any system are the limiting factors and constraints/ Meado s (7--9. also has a strong focus on identifying systemic vulnerabilities, hile =erch (7--9. applies this to identifying potential vulnerabilities in a municipality#s functions (see $ppendix '"g and '"h./ &he focus on identifying unused resources and unmet needs comes from the literature revie : Denmar', S eden and Samso all used this as a tool to increase efficiency and reduce aste (see $ppendices '"a, '"b, and '"c./ Meado s (7--9. emphasises that the aims D goals of a system are one of the most influential factors and most effective points for interventions/ ?or this reason I attempt to find sustainable aims for each sector hich can reconcile the research 0uestion and aims and ob2ectives of this study ith the needs or goals of various participants in the system/

1verleaf is a blan' template table to illustrate the S41& analysis, as used in Chapter 6:

Zero Carbon Island

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'Plain English' Executive Summary

Kelo is a blan' template table to illustrate the S41& analysis, as used in Chapter 6: /ims %

Strengths include

?ulnerabilities and constraints

1pportunities

@nmet needs

Surplus resources

Suggestions

-eferences for systems analysis

Cities $lliance (7--9. <i!eab e Citie": &he benefits of urban environmental planning/ ILEP, IL) C$KI&$&, IC=EI, Cities $lliance, IIED, A&Z/ $vailable from: http:GG /unep/orgGurbanQenvironmentGPD?sG=iveableCities/pdf ($ccessed 6-th May 7-67./ =erch, D/ (7--9. 4o"t carbon citie"( p annin' for ener'y an+ c imate uncertainty, Sebastopol, Post Carbon Institute/ Meado s, D/ (7--8. Thinkin' in "y"tem", =ondon, Earthscan/ 1pen Iniversity (7--8. &76>: Inderstanding systems 3 ma'ing sense of complexity O*-- hour moduleP/ http:GG ;/open/ac/u'GstudyGundergraduateGcourseGt76>/htm ($ccessed 7;rd $pril 7-67. 1pen Iniversity (7--9. &UH7>*: E.periencin' "y"tem"/ OHesidential courseG 7-- hour moduleP/

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