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Background Brief Vietnam: Prime Minister to Nominate Two New Deputies Carlyle A. Thayer October 23, 2013

[client name deleted] Q1. It appears that Vietnam has continued to install young faces who are both Western-trained and are familiar to the West. What do you make of this development? ANSWER: If the appointments of Vo Duc Dam and Pham Binh Minh are approved, and Nguyen Thien Nhan gives up his post as Deputy Prime MInister, Vietnam will have five deputy prime ministers. Three of them were educated in the West Hoang Trung Hai in Ireland, Vu Duc Dam in Belgium and Pham Binh Minh in the United States. Mr. Dam is exceptionally well qualified in telecommunications and related technology. Mr. Binh brings diplomatic experience at the United Nations and the United States along with expertise in international organisations and human rights to his new post. Mr. Binhs appointment is especially important because it elevates the status of the Foreign Ministry and the Minister for Foreign Affairs. It should be recalled that the last Foreign Minister Pham Gia Khiem was both Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister. Messers. Hai, Dam and Binh are young enough to serve for a decade in high-office following the next party congress if it is held in early 2016. Q2. How would the international community react to these appointments? What do they mean for Vietnam's development trajectory and integration? ANSWER: The international community should be very pleased. Europe can now boast it provided education to two Deputy Prime Ministers, while the United States will be pleased to continue working with Mr. Binh who has both educational and diplomatic experience in the United States. The addition of Mr. Hai and Mr. Binh will greatly assist Vietnam in its efforts to proactively integrate with global economy. Q3. Are you expecting any sea change or watershed in Vietnam's development policies and path after these appointments? If, so why? If not, why not? ANSWER: The basic course of Vietnams international integration has been s et. Many of the challenges, such as reform of the banking sector and state-owned enterprises will rest on the political will of the Politburo to ensure that these policies are carried out effectively. Vietnams strategic approach to international integrati on outside of economic integration will be strengthened in such important areas as science and

2 technology and diplomacy. I do not expect any radical change in Vietnams development policies, but I do expect better advice to flow to the Prime Minister and a more sophisticated presentation of Vietnams external policies.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Prime Minister to Nominate Two New Deputies, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 23, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Brief Vietnam: Prime Minister to Nominate Two New Deputy Prime Ministers Carlyle A. Thayer November 4, 2013

[client name deleted] We are preparing a report on the Deputy Prime Minster (DPM) reshuffle in Vietnam expected to be announced on November 14. Could you provide your assessment of the following: 1) Are we right that the drive to appoint Pham Binh Minh and Vu Duc Dam as DPMs originated with Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, and that these appointments - if approved - would underscore Mr Dung's growing strength? ANSWER: Prior to Nguyen Tan Dungs selection as Prime Minister, the party Central Committee often put up nominations for Cabinet positions. Nguyen Tan Dung won the right to make his own Cabinet selections first and then submit them to the Central Committee for vetting before formally placing their names before the National Assembly for approval. Upon coming into office Prime Minster Dung attempted to remove several of the incumbent deputy prime ministers and replace them with two of his preferred selections, including Nguyen Thien Nhan. In the end Prime Minister Dung was forced to keep the three incumbent deputy prime ministers and add on his nominees, thus raising the number of deputy prime ministers from three to five. Nguyen Thien Nhan did not perform well as Minister of Education and Training and was removed from this post. With Dungs backing he was elected to the Politburo. He received a high vote of approval by the Central Committee. Now Nhan seems to have been sidelined and given the chair of the Vietnam Fatherland Front, a post usually reserved for a just retired member of the Politburo. Nhan is likely to vacate his spot as Deputy Prime Minister. If Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung manages to remain on the Politburo after the next party congress scheduled for early 2016, he would have Nhan as an ally who could be recalled and given a suitable high-level government or party post. In the past when an incumbent prime minster was set to retire, his replacement was always the first deputy prime minister. Dung has chosen not to give this title to any of his incumbent deputy prime ministers. Of the two new nominees, only Vo Duc Dam is likely to be considered a possible future prime minister. Prime Minister Dung

2 is using his nine lives to test would be prime ministers in order to pick a favourite in two years time. 2) Are there any specific reasons why either man might appeal to Prime Minster Dung as a DPM candidate? ANSWER: In April the Politburo adopted an important resolution on international integration. Both of the two nominees for deputy prime minster, Vo Duc Dam and Pham Binh Minh as, bring added value towards meeting this objective. Dam is strong in science and technology and Minh is strong in foreign affairs, including international organisations, relations with the United States and human rights. Minhs nomination as Deputy Prime Minister enhances his power within the system to influence foreign policy. His predecessor Pham Gia Khiem was both Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. He was also a member of the Politburo. Minh is too junior at present to be promoted to the partys top decision-making body. But he will have the experience come 2016. 3) Will the National Assembly (NA) play anything other than a pro forma role in this process, or is it possible that NA deputies will throw a wrench in the works? ANSWER: It is rare but not unprecedented for the National Assembly to overturn the Prime Minister of Cabinet appointments. In past years, two incumbents who were renominated were rejected by the National Assembly on separate occasions. The Minister for Public Security Le Minh Huong was rejected as was the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, Cao Sy Kiem. The National Assembly could also decide that five Deputy Prime Ministers was to many and limit the number to three or four. 4) Have you ever written a Background Briefing explaining the role that DPMs have traditionally played in Vietnamese politics, or are you aware of any such research? We would like to include some background on this in our report -- specifically, on whether there are any differences between the role that DPMs play in Vietnam and China, respectively. ANSWER: I am not aware of any publication that specifically looks at the role of the DPM within Vietnams political system. The time period of relevance is since 1992 when the present state Constitution was adopted and created the Cabinet system with individual ministerial accountability. As noted, until 2006, the next prime minister was invariably the first deputy prime minister. All deputy prime ministers are given responsibility for multiple areas of responsibility that overlap the responsibilities of various ministries and equivalent bodies. Not all deputy prime ministers are members of the Politburo. In 2006, at least two of the three deputy prime ministers were on the Politburo and senior to Nguyen Tan Dung. The notable example is Nguyen Sinh Hung who was appointed chair of the National Assembly Standing Committee. Of the present four deputy prime ministers two are members of the Politburo (Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Nguyen Thien Nhan ) while the others two are not (Hoang Trung Hai and Vu Van Ninh).

3 Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Prime Minister to Nominate Two New Deputy Prime Ministers, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 4, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Brief Vietnams Foreign Policy: A MidTerm Review Carlyle A. Thayer November 7, 2013

Vietnam has passed the half-way point between the last national party congress and the next. This is a time when Vietnam traditionally reviews progress made over the last two-three years and begins planning for the future. From the vantage point of October 2013 how do we assess the successes and shortcomings of Vietnams foreign policy? As long ago as 1991 Vietnam set a foreign policy to diversity and muiltilateralize its external relations and be a friend and reliable partner to all. The eleventh national party congress in 2011 endorsed the goal of proactive integration with the global economy. Vietnam has achieved success in the past two years of reaching its target of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) in the range of US $13-14 billion. This year Vietnam is on track to meet its goal. In August 2013, Vietnam obtained US $12.6 billion in FDI. Vietnam, according to a study by Harvard University, is the ideal recipient for overseas development assistance. Foreign analysts overlook the 1991 framework and prefer to see Vietnams relations through the lense of power politics between China and the United States. This is a mistake. The first conclusion we can make about Vietnams conduct of foreign policy is that it is one of the most successful of all the policies set out by the eleventh national party congress. By October 2013 Vietnam had established strategic partnerships/comprehensive partnerships with thirteen of the most important countries in the world: Russia (2001), Japan (2006), India (2007) China (2008), South Korea (2009), Spain (2009), United Kingdom (2010), Germany (2011), and, quite remarkably, Italy, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and France (2013). Also in 2013 Vietnam and the United States raised their bilateral relations to a comprehensive partnership along the lines of Vietnams relations with Australia. These are in fact strategic partnerships under a different name. It is notable that Vietnam has strategic partnerships or equivalent with all five permanent members of the UN Security Council. In 2013, Vietnam forged strategic partnerships with members of the Association of Southeast Asian nations for the first

2 time. Most, but not all, of Vietnams strategic partnerships have developed considerable depth. Relations with Russia have been raised to a comprehensive strategic partnership while relations with China have been raised to comprehensive cooperative strategic partner. Other strategic partnerships have developed considerable depth through multi-year plans of action. The second major success of Vietnams foreign policy has been its handling of territorial and sovereignty disputes in the East Sea. Vietnam has used special envoys deftly to advance it objectives and to prevent a deterioration of relations with China. In 2011 China and Vietnam adopted Guidelines to Settle Maritime Disputes. The number of serious maritime incidents has declined but sadly not ended. Vietnam has kept the East Sea issue from dominating its bilateral relations with China. This years October visit by Premier Li Keqiang to Hanoi demonstrated that Vietnam and China could cooperate on maritime issues and even consider cooperation for mutual development without Vietnam having to sacrifice it sovereignty. The forthcoming visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin will demonstrate that Vietnam has been able to add depth to its comprehensive strategic partnership. Vietnams bilateral relationship with Russia ensures Vietnams ability to maintain a strong national defence posture. There is one major shortcoming. In previous years Pham Gia Khiem served as Foreign Minister, Deputy Prime Minster and member of the Politburo. Vietnams current foreign minister does not hold these additional positions; Vietnams rapid international integration raises the objective requirement for the current Foreign Minister, Pham Binh Minh, to be promoted to the post of Deputy Prime Minister. Foreign Minister Binh has excellent qualifications. He earned a higher degree at the prestigious Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in America. He served in the Vietnamese Embassies in London and Washington. He also has significant experience in dealing with international organisations. This is important given the Politburo resolution on international integration issued in April this year. Mr. Binhs international experience will be invaluable in managing Vietnams relations with the major powers and in promoting economic integration to assist Vietnam in overcoming the current sluggishness of the economy.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnams Foreign Policy: A Mid-Term Review, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 7, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

3 Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.