ARTICLE IN PRESS

Energy Policy 36 (2008) 248257 www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Inuence of European passenger cars weight to exhaust CO2 emissions

Efthimios Zervasa,, Christos Lazaroub,1
b

Department of Environmental Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, Vas. Soas 12, GR-67100 Xanthi, Greece des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, 104, Avenue du Peuple Belge, F-59043 Lille Cedex, France Institut dAdministration des Entreprises, Universite Received 11 May 2007; accepted 6 September 2007 Available online 22 October 2007

Abstract The increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration inuences climate changes. The road transport sector is one of the main anthropogenic sources of CO2 emissions in the European Union (EU). One of the main parameters inuencing CO2 emissions from passenger cars (PCs) is their weight, which increases during last years. For the same driving distance, heavier vehicles need more work than lighter ones, because they have to move an extra weight, and thus more fuel is consumed and thus increased CO2 emissions. The weight control of new PCs could be an efcient way to control their CO2 emissions. After an analysis of the EU new PCs market, their segment distribution and their weight, some estimations for 2020 are presented. Based on this analysis, 13 base scenarios using several ways for the control of the weight of future European new PCs are used to estimate their CO2 emissions and the benet of each scenario. The results show that a signicant benet on CO2 emissions could be achieved if the weight of each PC does not exceed an upper limit, especially if this limit is quite low. The benet obtained by limitations of weight is higher than the benet obtained from the expected decreased future fuel consumption. Similar results are obtained when the weight of new PCs does not exceed an upper limit within each segment, or when the weight of each new PC decreases. r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Carbon dioxide; Passenger cars; Tax incentives

1. Introduction It is a known fact that the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration inuences climate changes. The transport sector is one of the main anthropogenic sources of CO2 emissions. It accounted for 28% of total CO2 emissions in Europe in 1998 (Internet site of Eurostat), while this percentage was 23.4% for road transport in the same year. In the last years, a willingness to control and decrease CO2 emissions can be seen through several international initiatives, such as the Kyoto protocol (United Nations, 1992). The transport sector is composed of ground, maritime and air transport. The ground sector comprises rail and vehicle transport, and the latter can be divided into the transport of persons using passenger cars (PCs) and the
Corresponding author. Tel.: +30 24510 79383.
1

E-mail address: ezervas@env.duth.gr (E. Zervas). Present address: Griponissioti 7, GR-32100 Livadia, Ukraine.

transport of goods using heavy-duty vehicles. The two main categories of the current PCs are gasoline PCs and diesel PCs, according to the type of fuel they consume. All PCs do not emit the same amount of CO2. For the same driving distance and power demand, diesel PCs emit less CO2 compared with gasoline PCs. Another CO2-inuencing factor is weight. As for the same driving distance higher-weight PCs need more work than a lighter one, because they have to move an extra weight, heavier PCs emit more CO2 than lighter PCs (Sullivan et al., 2004; Zervas, 2006, 2007). Other parameters also inuence CO2 emissions, such as engine displacement, fuel injection and combustion systems used, etc. Newer engines have lower CO2 emissions than older ones, as this parameter is taken into severe consideration during the last years. However, using the same technology, a heavier PC will still emit more CO2 than a lighter one. For this reason, without neglecting technological improvements, the control of PCs weight is one of the most effective parameters for CO2 control.

0301-4215/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.09.009

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The European PC market shows several uctuations every year in relation to the total number of new PC registrations, segment distribution and diesel penetration. Based on the analysis of the past market evolution, some estimations for the future (2020) European Union (EU) market were presented in a previous work (Zervas, 2007). PC weight is one of the changing parameters in the last years. The average weight of both gasoline and diesel PC has shown a substantial increase (Internet site of ACEA). The present work evaluates the CO2 benets obtained if such a method is applied in the future. The current and also the estimated future EU market of new PCs (internet site of World Resources Institute (WRI)) are reviewed and a number of estimations for the probable future market are presented. Several plausible scenarios for the future PC weight are constructed and the CO2 benet is calculated for each of them. This control can be achieved by several methods; some are presented in this work. 2. Assumptions and methodology used 2.1. Data used The statistical data used here are a compilation of data presented in the internet sites of Eurostat, WRI, International Road Federation (IRF), Association of European Automobile Manufactures (ACEA) and Committee of French Automobile Manufactures (CCFA). The vehicles weight and CO2 emissions on the New European Driving Cycle come from the German Federal Motoring Authority (KBA, 2003 version). An analysis of the current passenger car market in the 15 European countries and its evolution since 1970 were presented in a previous work (Zervas, 2007).The most probable scenarios for the state of the EU market in 2020 were established and the CO2 emissions changes due to the use of diesel instead of gasoline PC were calculated at different percentages of diesel penetration. 2.2. Relationship between vehicle weight and CO2 emissions Using the KBA data, CO2 emissions of gasoline and diesel PC can be presented as a function of vehicle weight (Sullivan et al., 2004; Zervas, 2006, 2007). The equations CO2 0:1479 Weight 7:9 and CO2 0:1133 Weight 8:2 (2) are valid in the case of gasoline and diesel PCs, with a relative standard deviation of less than 10% (Zervas, 2006, 2007). However, an eventual replacement of gasoline PCs by diesel versions is more likely to occur within the same segment than within the same weight class. Accordingly, two new lines are obtained using the average weight of (1)

each segment: CO2 0:1702 Weight 6:7 and CO2 0:1398 Weight 11:0, (4) for the gasoline and diesel PCs, respectively (Zervas, 2006, 2007). The average difference between the estimated CO2 emissions using the 2003 KBA le and the average weight of each segment is very small: less than 1.8% in the case of gasoline PCs and 2.8% in the case of diesel PCs. Eqs. (3) and (4) are used in this work for the current fuel consumption. However, in the future, more severe emission standards should require advanced emission control technologies, for example the diesel particulate lter or DeNOx technologies, which would increase fuel consumption. On the other hand, fuel efciency is likely to be improved in the future by improved vehicle aerodynamics, improved combustion, decreased friction, etc. The work of Sullivan et al. (2004, and references therein) provides a list of technologies that are expected to increase or decrease future fuel consumption. In order to assess future gasoline and diesel fuel consumption, the assumptions used here are (3)

 

the diesel optimistic and pessimistic (DO, DP) assumptions presume 0% and +5%, respectively, in diesel fuel consumption change, the gasoline optimistic and pessimistic (GO, GP) assumptions presume 10% and 5%, respectively, in gasoline fuel consumption change.

It is obvious that, if future diesel fuel consumption decreases, the CO2 benets estimated in this study will be greater. 2.3. Analysis of the current European PCs market In a previous work (Zervas, 2007), the values of 397.5 million inhabitants (estimated from Eurostat) for the Western European population and of 18.0 million new PCs registrations are used for the year 2020, giving a ratio of 46.8 new PC registrations/1000 inhabitants for the same year. In this work, the impact of diesel penetration on CO2 emissions is calculated at different future diesel penetrations. Two different diesel penetrations are used in the present work: the current (in 2003) and that estimated from Zervas (2007) if the average annual increase of diesel penetration since 1980 is applied to each country, with an upper limit of 80% (which corresponds to a total diesel penetration of 63.7% in the 15 EU countries). 2.4. EU passenger cars segment distribution Another important parameter taken into account is the PC segment. The European PC eet is divided into 11

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100 Diesel

LM UM

10 Registrations (%)

SC

SUP SUV1

COMP SUV2 4x4-1 PRE 4x4-2

1
ECO

100.0
UM

Gasoline
SUP

heavier than the EU average (Zervas, 2007). The average PC weight has increased constantly during the past years (Internet site of ACEA), due to the incorporation of more auxiliaries (air conditioning, enhanced safety auxiliaries, more electric and electronic auxiliaries, etc.) and emission post-treatment devices. The segment distribution has not remained constant in the last years. Figs. 2 and 3 show the historical evolution of gasoline and diesel segment distribution since 1995 and the estimations for these distributions until 2020.

10.0
ECO

SC

LM

1.0

SUV1 4x4-1

PRE COMP

PRE

SUV-2 4x4-1 4x4-2

SUV2

COMP SUV-1

0.1 800 1200 1600 Weight (Kg)

4x4-2

1 Registrations (%) Registrations (%) 2

2000

0 40

SC LM UM

ECO SUP

0 15 10

Fig. 1. Segment percentage of new passenger car registrations in EU in 2003 as a function of the average weight of each segment. ECO: economic, SC: small car, LM: lower medium, UP: upper medium, SUP: superior, COMP: compact, PRE: prestige, SUV1: sport utility vehicleso4.5 m, SUV2: sport utility vehicles 44.5 m, 4 4-1: four wheel drive o4.5 m, 4 4-2: four wheel drive 44.5m.

20

5 0 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 Year

segments (Zervas, 2006, 2007, Fig. 1). Fig. 1 shows the percentage of new PC registrations as a function of the average weight of each segment in 2003. The majority of the EU average gasoline market corresponds to four segments: Economic, Small Car, Lower Medium and Upper Medium, while the majority of the diesel market corresponds to three segments: Small Car, Lower Medium and Upper Medium (Fig. 1). The most important criterion for people to buy a PC of the Economic segment is price. As Economic diesel PCs have usually a much higher price than gasoline PCs, the percentage of the diesel Economic segment is not very large. Also, the percentages of Superior and Prestige segments are higher in the case of gasoline PC, as buyers of these expensive vehicles prefer the advantages of gasoline PC (like better drivability and lower noise) and are not much concerned by price. Fig. 1 shows that, in the case of gasoline PC, the registrations percentage generally decreases with the average segment weight. In the case of diesel PC, a maximum value can be observed in the case of Lower Medium segment. The percentage of heavier segments is higher in the case of diesel PCs: 8.4% and 2.9% of diesel PCs belong to the SUV and 4 4 segments, respectively, versus only 2.2% and 0.64% of the gasoline PC. The average weight of gasoline and diesel PCs in the EU was, respectively, 1098 and 1306 kg in 2003. It must be noticed that signicant differences exist between each country: for example, in 2003, new PCs in Sweden and Finland were about 100 kg

Fig. 2. Gasoline PCs. Historical evolution of segment percentage of new passenger car registrations in EU from 1995 to 2003 (blue symbols) and estimations for the future segment distribution (red symbols).

8 6 4 Registrations (%)

PRE COMP SUV-1

SUV-2 4x4-1 4x4-2

4 Registrations (%)

2 2 0 40 0 10

SC LM UM

ECO SUP

20

0 2000 2010 2020 2000 Year 2010 2020

Fig. 3. Diesel PCs. Historical evolution of segment percentage of new passenger car registrations in EU from 1995 to 2003 (blue symbols) and estimations for the future segment distribution (red symbols).

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The future segment distributions are the average value of two calculations:

 

the values calculated using the average annual change from 1995 to 2003, the values calculated using the extrapolation of the best linear t of the 19952003 percentages.

In the case of gasoline PCs, the percentage of some segments should continue to increase: the Small Cars, Economic and SUV-2 percentages should continue to increase to reach about 45%, 16% and 1.5%, respectively. Other segments, as Lower Medium, Upper Medium, Superior and Compact should decrease to about 21%, 7%, 2.1% and 0.3%, respectively. The percentages of Prestige and the two 4 4 segments would remain practically unchanged. This gure shows that the segment distribution of future gasoline PCs should shift down to smaller vehicles. In the case of diesel PCs, the Small Cars, Lower Medium, SUV-1 and SUV-2 segments should continue to increase to reach 23%, 41%, 6% and 5%, respectively, while the Economic, Upper Medium, Superior and the two 4 4 segments should decrease to about 0.5%, 14%, 3.1%, 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively. This gure shows that the diesel segment percentages should increase at the two extremes (small and big vehicles), and decrease in the case of intermediate vehicles. 2.5. Weight distribution of the current European new PCs Fig. 4 shows the weight distribution of new diesel and gasoline European PCs in 2003, for two weight ranges: 500
80
Gasoline

and 100 kg. It is clearly shown in this gure that, for both weight ranges, the diesel weight distribution is shifted to heavier PCs compared with the gasoline weight distribution. The majority (about 55%) of both gasoline and diesel PC weight is found to be between 1000 and 1500 kg; however, the distribution is quite different in the case of lighter and heavier PCs. A total of 32% of gasoline PCs is found to be lighter than 1000 kg against only 1.5% of diesel PCs, while 30% of diesel PCs is found between 1500 and 2000 kg, against only 5% of gasoline PCs. When the weight range narrows (100 kg), it is more evident that gasoline PCs are mainly found around 1000 kg (from 900 to 1300 kg), while diesel PCs present a rst peak at the 13001700 kg region and a second peak around 2200 kg. The percentage of gasoline PCs heavier than 1600 kg is very low (less than 1% for each 100 kg weight range) compared with the diesel ones. Fig. 5 shows the weight distribution of each segment when each segment is divided into four regions: the 025%, the 2550%, the 5075% and the 75100% of each segment weight range (in 2003). Generally, the majority of the new PC registrations of each segment occurred in the 2550% segment weight range. The 025% region is generally higher in the case of the gasoline PC, while the two upper regions are higher in the case of the diesel PC. This gure shows that once more, within each segment, the gasoline PCs are generally shifted to lighter cars, while the diesel PCs are shifted to heavier ones. As expected, there is quite a high dispersion between each segment weight distribution. For example, the SUV and 4 4 segments are shifted to heavier PCs, while the distribution of gasoline Small Cars is shifted to lighter ones. 2.6. Estimation of the weight of the future European new PCs The future weight of a European PC is calculated as the average value of two estimations (Fig. 6): the rst is the weight calculated using the estimated future segment distribution shown in Figs. 2 and 3; the second is the weight calculated after the extrapolation of the ACEA average PC weight from 1995 to 2003. The extrapolation of ACEA data is rather pessimistic, as it leads to an increase of 21.4% of the future (in 2020) PC weight. The estimation of future PC weight from the segment distribution of Figs. 2 and 3 leads to a moderate increase of 2.2%. The average value of these two extremes is used in this work. 2.7. Scenarios for the future EU market of new PCs Following the previous analysis, 13 base scenarios are used in order to estimate the future changes of CO2 emissions (Table 1).

1000-1500

Diesel

40

<1000

1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000

Percentage

0
Gasoline

20

Diesel

10

0 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Weight (Kg)

Fig. 4. Weight distribution of new diesel and gasoline PCs in 2003. Percentage for two weight ranges of 100 kg (lower curves) and 500 kg (upper curves).

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100

Gasoline

ECO SC LM

100

Diesel

ECO SC LM

80 Percentage

UM COMP SUP

80 Percentage

UM COMP SUP PR

PR

60

SUV-1 SUV-2 4x4-1 4x4-2

60

SUV-1 SUV-2 4x4-1 4x4-2

40

40

20

20

0
0-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-100%

0
0-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-100%

Percentage

Percentage

Fig. 5. Weight distribution of each segment of new gasoline and diesel PCs in 2003. Percentage for a weight range of 025%, 2550%, 5075% and 75100% of each segment weight range.

1500

Segments ACEA Average

 

1400

Weight (Kg)

1300

and the segment distribution estimated for 2020 (Figs. 2 and 3), named Future. The fuel consumption: Five values are used here: current fuel consumption (CFC), GO, GP, DO and DP, as dened previously. Weight of PCs: Two values are used here: the current one (in 2003, named Current) and the value estimated for 2020 using the average curve of Fig. 6, named Future.

1200

1100 2000 2004 2008 Year

Fig. 6. Estimations of the future weight of new European PCs. Segments: weight estimated using the segment distribution of Figs. 2 and 3 and the current weight of each segment; ACEA: weight estimated using the extrapolation of the ACEA average weight of PCs from 1995 to 2003; Average: average value of the two previous values.

2012

2016

2020

Diesel penetration is an important factor for CO2 emission in the EU (Sullivan et al., 2004; Zervas, 2006, 2007). For each base case scenario, the future diesel percentage for each country is the value used in Zervas (2007) from the extrapolation of the average annual increase of diesel penetration from 1980 to 2003 with an upper limit of 80%. The average future diesel percentage is estimated to be 63.7% in the 15 member countries of the EU (from Zervas, 2007). For each one of the 13 base scenarios, four types of possible approaches are examined in order to control the weight of future PCs: 1. the weight of all PCs does not exceed an upper limit (the values of 1000, 1200, 1400, 1600, 1800, 2000, 2200 and 2400 kg are studied), 2. a portion of a new PC does not exceed the previous upper limit (the values of 30% and 50% are examined using the same percentage for all segments), 3. all PCs of each segment do not exceed an upper limit (the values of 25%, 50% and 75% of the segment weight range are studied), 4. the weight of each PC decreases by a xed value (the values of 25, 50, 75 and 100 kg for each PC are studied). In the case of the rst type of possible approach of future PC weight control, every PC with a weight higher

These scenarios take into account the following parameters:

First, the number of new PC registrations: Two values are used here: the current registrations (in 2003), named Current, and the value estimated from Zervas (2007) for 2020, which corresponds to 17 676 209 new PCs, named Future. The segment distribution: Two values are used here: the current segment distribution (in 2003) named Current,

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E. Zervas, C. Lazarou / Energy Policy 36 (2008) 248257 Table 1 Base scenarios used for the future weight of new PCs Name New PC registrations Current Current Current Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Segment distribution Current Current Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Future PC weight Diesel penetration Current Current Current Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Future Fuel consumption CFC CFC CFC CFC CFC GODO GODO GODP GODP GPDO GPDO GPDP GPDP 253

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Current-CSD-CW-CFC Current-CSD-FW-CFC Current-FSD-FW-CFC Future-FSD-CW-CFC Future-FSD-FW-CFC Future-FSD-CW-GODO Future-FSD-FW-GODO Future-FSD-CW-GODP Future-FSD-FW-GODP Future-FSD-CW-GPDO Future-FSD-FW-GPDO Future-FSD-CW-GPDP Future-FSD-FW-GPDP

Current Future Future Current Future Current Future Current Future Current Future Current Future

2.8. Possible ways for the weight control of new PCs A major question is how the weight control of new PCs can be achieved. We believe that there are two possible routes to this. The rst one is a decrease of weight abandoning some luxury or secondary auxiliaries. Some auxiliaries, as electrical windows, are considered as necessary now; however, their weight can be signicant. A rapid calculation can give us some interesting results. Let us consider that the devices for electrical windows have a weight of 1 kg per vehicle window and let us consider that the real windows are manual, so we decrease 2 kg of the vehicle weight. Using Eqs. (3) and (4), the average decrease of CO2 is 0.34 and 0.28 g/km for a gasoline and diesel PC of 1500 kg. Considering a total mileage of 200,000 and 300,000 km for a gasoline and diesel PC and taking into account the sales estimated for 2020, we obtain a gain of about 131,000 ton of CO2 just from the weight reduction of 1 kg. The second possible route is the use of smaller and lighter cars, by decreasing the sales of big cars and increasing the sales of smaller ones. This can be achieved in several ways; we present only three here:

CO2 emissions (Base=100)

than the upper limit is considered to have a weight equal to this limit; the CO2 emissions of these PCs are calculated from Eqs. (1) and (2) for current fuel consumption and using the appropriate coefcients for future fuel consumption.

160

140

120

100

80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Scenario
Fig. 7. Estimations of the CO2 emissions change as a function of the scenario studied, for the 13 base scenarios. Base: 100, for the scenario 1 (Current-CSD-CW-CFC).

 

using tax incentives that decrease the prices of smaller cars and increase the price of bigger ones. This system will not have any nancial charge because the taxes from the bigger cars sales will fund the incentives for the decrease of smaller taxes sales; the application of taxes for the use of big cars which will refund the users of smaller cars; and the application of CO2 regulations.

The economic study of these tax incentives and of all other parallel economic consequences on the automotive industry and other linked industries, as rening for fuel consumption, steel and other metal or plastic industries for raw materials etc., is out of the scope of this work. 3. Results and discussion 3.1. Comparison of CO2 emissions of each scenario CO2 emissions present signicant changes in the 13 base scenarios studied (Fig. 7). If the current new PC registrations

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are maintained, it can be seen that the change from current to future weight, while keeping the current segment distribution (scenario 2), will increase the CO2 emissions by 8% compared with the current situation (scenario 1), showing that the future increased PC weight will have a negative inuence on CO2 emissions. If the future segment distribution is used, as in the case of scenario 3, CO2 emissions present a moderate increase of about 2%, showing that the future segment distribution will help to control CO2 emissions. All scenarios using future new PC registrations show an increase in CO2 emissions compared with scenario 1, due to the higher number of new PC registrations. This increase would be 30% in the case of scenario 4, using future registrations and segment distribution but keeping the current weight. If the future weight is used (scenario 5), the increase reaches 40.6%. These two scenarios (4 and 5) use current fuel consumption; if future fuel consumption is used (scenarios 613) this increase is generally lower than the increase in scenarios 4 and 5. The two GODO scenarios (6 and 7) give a 5% lower increase because of the optimistic fuel consumption. The two GODP scenarios (8 and 9) give results similar to the two CFC scenarios (only 0.50.7% lower). As diesel penetration is high in these scenarios, the increased future diesel fuel consumption counterbalances the benets of the decreased gasoline future fuel consumption. The two GPDO scenarios (10 and 11) give values slightly (about 3%) higher than the two GODO scenarios (6 and 7). This indicates that the evolution of future gasoline fuel consumption plays a secondary role with respect to this of future diesel fuel consumption, because of the expected high future diesel penetration. Finally, the two GPDP scenarios (13 and 14) show the highest CO2 emissions (increase of 132% and 142.5%), due to the pessimistic future fuel consumption for both gasoline and diesel PCs. Scenarios 7, 9, 11 and 13 with future weight distribution show an increase in CO2 emissions about 10% higher than

scenarios 6, 8, 10 and 12 with current weight distribution. This is due to the increased PC weight in the four former scenarios and shows the signicant inuence of this parameter on future CO2 emissions. 3.2. Comparison of each scenario when the weight of each PC does not exceed an upper weight limit The CO2 benet is estimated for different values of the upper PC weight limit, in the case where all future new PCs respect this limit (Fig. 8). Base scenario 1 (CurrentCSD-CW-CFC) is found practically at the point 0% for an upper limit of 2400 kg, as very few PCs are above this limit. The CO2 benet in this scenario increases with the decrease of the weight limit, more rapidly when the weight is less than 1600 kg: it reaches 5% when the upper limit reaches 1600 kg, 9% for a limit of 1400 kg, 16% for 1200 kg and 28% for 1000 kg. The three scenarios with current new PC registrations (1, 2 and 3) tend to converge to the same point of CO2 benet for an upper limit of 1000 kg. In all 13 scenarios, the CO2 benet increases when the upper weight limit decreases. Even the two future-CFC scenarios (4 and 5), which estimate CO2 increases of about 30% and 40% compared with scenario 1 (Fig. 7), show a CO2 benet of about 10% for an upper limit of 1000 kg. This fact demonstrates the signicant CO2 benet that can be achieved when the weight of future new PCs decreases. The middle and right parts of Fig. 8 show the CO2 benet in the scenarios using future fuel consumption (scenarios 6, 8, 10 and 12 for the middle part and 7, 9, 11 and 13 for the right part), compared with scenarios 4 and 5 with current fuel consumption. In each part, the curves are almost parallel and the differences on the CO2 benets are not higher than 5% for the same weight limit. This value is very small compared with the benets that can be obtained from the upper weight limit decrease, showing once more the effectiveness of the last method.

40

40
C-CSD-CW-CFC C-CSD-FW-CFC C-FSD-FW-CFC

F-FSD-CW-CFC F-FSD-CW-GODO F-FSD-CW-GODP

40

F-FSD-FW-CFC F-FSD-FW-GODO F-FSD-FW-GODP

20 CO2 benefit (%)

F-FSD-CW-CFC

20 CO2 benefit (%)

F-FSD-CW-GPDO F-FSD-CW-GPDP

20 CO2 benefit (%)

F-FSD-FW-GPDO F-FSD-FW-GPDP

F-FSD-FW-CFC

-20

-20

-20

-40

-40

-40

1200

1600

2000

2400

1200

1600

2000

2400

1200

1600

2000

2400

Upper weight limit

Upper weight limit

Upper weight limit

Fig. 8. CO2 benet as a function of the upper weight limit for all PCs, for the 13 scenarios used. (Left: scenarios 15 with current fuel consumption, middle: scenarios 4 and 69 with current PC weight, right: scenarios 5 and 1013 with future PC weight).

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3.3. Comparison of each scenario when the weight of 50% or 30% of new PC does not exceed an upper weight limit In the case where only 50% or 30% of all new PCs respect an upper weight limit, the CO2 benet is lower and all the curves become more parallel to the x-axis, those of 30% more than those of 50% (Figs. 9 and 10). In both cases (50% and 30%), the base scenario (Current-CSDCW-CFC) is again found practically at the point 0% for an upper limit of 2400 kg, as very few PCs are above this limit. The CO2 benet in all scenarios increases when the upper weight limit decreases, but signicantly less than the benet shown in Fig. 8. The CO2 benet in the rst scenario is 2.5% for 50% and 1.5% for 30% of new PCs not exceeding the upper limit of 1600 kg (Fig. 11), against 5% in the case of 100% (Fig. 8). These values become 14% and 8.5%, respectively, for the upper limit of 1000 kg, against 28% in the case of 100% (Fig. 11). The CO2 benet in all scenarios becomes lower when the percentage of new PCs not exceeding an upper weight limit

becomes smaller (Fig. 11). These differences are rather small when the upper weight limit is high, but increase signicantly when it decreases. The middle and right parts of Figs. 9 and 10 show the CO2 benet in the scenarios using future fuel consumption (scenarios 6, 8, 10 and 12 for the middle parts and 7, 9, 11 and 13 for the right parts), compared with scenarios 4 and 5. The same tendencies as those shown in Fig. 8 can be observed here. Even in the cases when only 50% or 30% of new PCs do not exceed the upper weight limits, the reduction of PC weight can be more effective in order to decrease future CO2 emissions than the decrease of future fuel consumption. 3.4. Comparison of each scenario when all PCs of each segment do not exceed an upper weight Fig. 12 shows the CO2 benet when all new PCs of each segment do not exceed an upper weight limit within this segment (25%, 50%, 75% and 100% of the segment weight range), as a function of this upper weight limit, for all

20

20

20

0 CO2 benefit (%) CO2 benefit (%)

0 CO2 benefit (%)

0
F-FSD-FW-CFC F-FSD-FW-GODO F-FSD-FW-GODP

-20

-20

-20

F-FSD-FW-GPDO F-FSD-FW-GPDP

C-CSD-CW-CFC

F-FSD-CW-CFC

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C-CSD-FW-CFC C-FSD-FW-CFC F-FSD-CW-CFC F-FSD-FW-CFC

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-40

-60 1200 1600 2000 2400 Upper weight limit

-60 1200 1600 2000 2400 Upper weight limit

-60 1200 1600 2000 2400 Upper weight limit

Fig. 9. CO2 benet as a function of the upper weight limit if 50% of the new PC do not exceed this limit, for the 13 scenarios used (left: scenarios 15 with current fuel consumption, middle: scenarios 4 and 69 with current PC weight, right: scenarios 5 and 1013 with future PC weight).

20

20

20

0 CO2 benefit (%) CO2 benefit (%)

0 CO2 benefit (%)

F-FSD-FW-CFC F-FSD-FW-GODO F-FSD-FW-GODP

-20

-20

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F-FSD-FW-GPDO F-FSD-FW-GPDP

C-CSD-CW-CFC

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C-CSD-FW-CFC C-FSD-CW-CFC F-FSD-CW-CFC F-FSD-FW-CFC

-40

F-FSD-CW-GODO F-FSD-CW-GODP F-FSD-CW-GPDO F-FSD-CW-GPDP

-40

-60 1200 1600 2000 2400 Upper weight limit

-60 1200 1600 2000 2400 Upper weight limit

-60 1200 1600 2000 2400 Upper weight limit

Fig. 10. CO2 benet as a function of the upper weight limit if 30% of the new PC do not exceed this limit, for the 13 scenarios used (left: scenarios 15 with current fuel consumption, middle: scenarios 4 and 69 with current PC weight, right: scenarios 5 and 1013 with future PC weight).

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F-FSD-CW-CFC 100% F-FSD-CW-CFC 50% F-FSD-CW-CFC 30% F-FSD-FW-CFC 100%

20 CO2 benefit (%)

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Fig. 11. CO2 benet as a function of the upper weight limit if 100%, 50% and 30% of new PC do not exceed this limit, for all scenarios used (only the scenarios 15 using the current fuel consumption are shown).

F-FSD-CW-CFC

F-FSD-FW-CFC

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Fig. 12. CO2 benet if all new PCs of each segment do not exceed an upper weight limit within this segment (25%, 50%, 75% and 100% of the segment weight range), as a function of this upper weight limit, for all scenarios used.

scenarios used. The 100% upper limit corresponds to the values shown in Fig. 7 (without weight limit). In the case of the rst scenario (Current-CSD-CW-CFC), this gure shows that the CO2 benet is very small (0.7%) when the upper limit is set at 75% of each segment range, because the majority of PCs in the segment have a weight below this limit. When the limit is set at 50%, the CO2 benet is rather high (4.5%) and reaches even higher values (18%) when it is set at 25% of each segment weight range. Similar tendencies are observed in all the other scenarios. The CO2 benet at 75% limit is small, generally less than 2%, with respect to no weight limit (100%). The CO2 benet at 50% limit is rather high (from 4% to 7%) while this at 25% limit is signicantly higher and reaches 1724%. All the different scenarios show the same order in CO2 benet as shown in Figs. 811. The differences between these scenarios slightly decrease as the weight limit decreases. The middle and right parts of Fig. 12 show that

the difference between the scenarios using future fuel consumption and those using current fuel consumption remains between 1% and 4%. 3.5. Comparison of each scenario when the weight of each passenger car decreases Fig. 13 shows the CO2 benet when the weight of all new PCs decreases by a certain value, in function of this weight decrease. The points with 0 kg decrease correspond to the values shown in Fig. 7. In the case of the rst scenario (Current-CSD-CW-CFC), this gure shows that the CO2 benet is about 2% when this decrease is 25 kg, and increases linearly to reach 15% for a weight decrease of 200 kg. Even in the case of a weight decrease of 50 kg, the CO2 benet is high enough, about 4%, and reaches 6% for a decrease of 75 kg. Similar linear CO2 benet curves are observed for all the other scenarios.

ARTICLE IN PRESS
E. Zervas, C. Lazarou / Energy Policy 36 (2008) 248257
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C-CSD-CW-CFC C-CSD-FW-CFC C-FSD-FW-CFC

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-40 0 40 80 120 160 200 Weight decrease of each vehicle (Kg)

-40 0 40 80 120 160 200 Weight decrease of each vehicle (Kg)

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Fig. 13. CO2 benet if the weight of all new PCs decreases by a certain value as a function of this value, for all scenarios used.

All the different scenarios show the same order in CO2 benet as shown in Figs. 812. The differences between these scenarios remain constant with the weight decrease, as all curves are parallel. The middle and right parts of Fig. 13 show that the difference between the scenarios using the future FC and those using the current FC remains between 1% and 4% (as observed in Fig. 12). 4. Conclusions Considerable reductions in CO2 emissions can be obtained if the weight of future (2020) new PCs is controlled. In order to evaluate potential CO2 benets, the EU new PC market is analyzed and several parameters, such as new PC registrations, segment distribution, weight distribution and fuel consumption, are used to establish 13 base scenarios and, for each scenario, examine four ways of new PC weight control. The main results of this study show that the expected increase in weight of future EU new PCs will have a negative effect on CO2 emissions. The future number of new PC registrations, also expected to increase, should also have a negative effect. The effect of future fuel consumption will depend on the changes in gasoline and diesel fuel consumption and the future diesel penetration in the EU market. When the weight of each new PC does not exceed an upper limit, a signicant CO2 benet is observed, especially when this limit is low. This benet is higher when all future

new PCs respect this limit and decreases when only a part of the eet respects it. The benet obtained by limitations of weight is higher than the benet obtained from the expected decreased future fuel consumption. Similar results are obtained when the weight of new PCs does not exceed an upper limit within each segment, or when the weight of each new PC decreases. References
Internet site of the Association of European Automobile Manufactures (ACEA) /www.acea.beS. Internet site of the Comity of French Automobile Manufactures (CCFA) /www.ccfa.frS. Internet site of Eurostat /www.europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/S. Internet site of the German Federal Motoring Authority (KBA), 2003 /www.kba.deS. Internet site of the International Road Federation /www.irfnet.orgS. Internet site of the World Resources Institute /www.earthtrends.wri. orgS. Sullivan, J.L., Baker, R.E., Boyer, B.A., Hammerle, R.H., Kenney, T.E., Muniz, L., Wallington, T.J., 2004. CO2 emission benet of diesel (versus gasoline) powered vehicles. Environmental Science and Technology 38 (12), 32173223. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, United Nations, Kyoto, Japan, 1992 /http://unfccc.int/essential_background/ kyoto_protocol/background/items/1351.phpS. Zervas, E., 2006. CO2 benet from the increasing percentage of diesel passenger cars. Case of Ireland. Energy Policy 34 (17), 28482857. Zervas, E., 2007. European CO2 benet from the increasing percentage of diesel passenger cars, SAE 2007-01-1947.