US Employment Situation in October 2013 and 4Q13 Outlook

by Eduardo Petazze
The US BLS released its THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION OCTOBER 2013 pdf, 39 pages
The following summary includes our revised estimate for 4Q2013 and the projection for 2014.
Level [Numbers in thousands]
Total nonfarm
Nonfarm payroll
Quarter SA Civilian Labor
payroll
Unemployment
over
Employment
Unemployment
Employment
employment
Force
rate
2011Q1
153,290
13,835
9.03%
139,456
130,663
93.7%
2011Q2
153,466
13,902
9.06%
139,564
131,315
94.1%
2011Q3
153,702
13,855
9.01%
139,848
131,734
94.2%
2011Q4
154,017
13,357
8.67%
140,660
132,287
94.0%
2012Q1
154,629
12,747
8.24%
141,882
133,058
93.8%
2012Q2
154,866
12,638
8.16%
142,228
133,509
93.9%
2012Q3
154,899
12,437
8.03%
142,463
133,918
94.0%
2012Q4
155,469
12,165
7.82%
143,303
134,463
93.8%
2013Q1
155,402
12,035
7.74%
143,367
135,108
94.2%
2013Q2
155,577
11,732
7.54%
143,845
135,686
94.3%
2013Q3
155,614
11,362
7.30%
144,253
136,162
94.4%
2013Q4
155,479
11,083
7.13%
144,397
136,696
94.7%
2014Q1
156,017
10,915
7.00%
145,103
137,353
94.7%
2014Q2
156,041
10,664
6.83%
145,377
137,908
94.9%
2014Q3
156,213
10,411
6.66%
145,802
138,346
94.9%
2014Q4
156,308
10,139
6.49%
146,169
138,903
95.0%
Data / estimates for 4Q2013 corrected without computing the effect of federal government shutdown
2013Q4
155,797
11,083
7.11%
144,714
136,696
94.5%
Own estimate
Level [Numbers in thousands]
Total nonfarm
Year 2013
Nonfarm payroll
payroll
Civilian Labor
Unemployment
SA
over Employment
Unemployment
Employment
employment
Force
rate
Jan
155,654
12,332
7.92%
143,322
134,839
94.1%
Feb
155,524
12,032
7.74%
143,492
135,171
94.2%
Mar
155,028
11,742
7.57%
143,286
135,313
94.4%
Apr
155,238
11,659
7.51%
143,579
135,512
94.4%
May
155,658
11,760
7.56%
143,898
135,687
94.3%
Jun
155,835
11,777
7.56%
144,058
135,860
94.3%
Jul
155,798
11,514
7.39%
144,285
135,949
94.2%
Aug
155,486
11,316
7.28%
144,170
136,187
94.5%
Sep
155,559
11,255
7.24%
144,303
136,350
94.5%
Oct
154,839
11,272
7.28%
143,568
136,554
95.1%
Nov
155,688
10,904
7.00%
144,784
136,673
94.4%
Dec
155,911
11,072
7.10%
144,839
136,861
94.5%
Last data as reported
Important notice:

As a result of an abnormality in the total civilian labor force during the month of October (caused by the federal
government shutdown) was necessary to correct the algorithms that are commonly used to project future scenarios in
the absence of discontinuities.
Projected data with the corrected model, are now consistent with the projections in previous months (which were not
affected by a disruption in the continuity assumption).
However, the total civilian labor force remains below previous estimates for 4Q2014 horizon, while total
unemployment is above, so that the unemployment rate for 4Q2014 previously estimated at 6.47%, now is at 6.49%.
Under the revised model, compared to the previous calculations, and one year ahead of the federal government
shutdown would be left to create 213.5 thousand jobs, reducing the civilian workforce in a 193.5 thousands.
With official data to be released for the month of November 2013, can be analyzed with greater certainty to
what extent these differences are real effects or simply a defect projection model used.
During the 2013 payroll nonfarm private sector will increase by around 2% from 2012.
Employees on nonfarm payrolls, SA
Total private
Logging
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Trade, transportation, and utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Government
Total non-farm
[Y/Y] [Q/Q] [M/M] SAAR
Own estimate

2012
111,821.8
50.4
800.2
5,642.4
11,920.6
7,463.9
4,456.7
25,511.2
5,673.9
14,869.4
4,413.6
554.3
2,677.8
7,785.8
17,929.8
20,319.9
13,747.3
5,436.4
21,914.9
133,736.7
1.70%

2013
114,060.1
50.8
823.2
5,804.7
11,971.9
7,517.4
4,454.5
25,972.6
5,762.7
15,173.5
4,479.8
556.6
2,690.1
7,890.0
18,535.0
20,679.7
14,155.3
5,486.9
21,852.8
135,913.0
1.63%

Y/Y
2.00%
0.84%
2.87%
2.88%
0.43%
0.72%
-0.05%
1.81%
1.56%
2.05%
1.50%
0.41%
0.46%
1.34%
3.38%
1.77%
2.97%
0.93%
-0.28%
1.63%

2013Q3
114,311.1
50.9
826.6
5,810.7
11,959.3
7,515.7
4,443.7
26,027.9
5,777.8
15,223.8
4,469.8
556.5
2,687.3
7,904.0
18,626.7
20,725.0
14,206.0
5,486.7
21,851.0
136,162.1
1.41%

2013Q4
114,853.5
51.5
832.9
5,841.1
11,978.1
7,535.7
4,442.3
26,184.3
5,791.6
15,318.8
4,517.1
556.7
2,688.3
7,924.8
18,746.6
20,799.0
14,301.7
5,505.2
21,842.3
136,695.8
1.58%

Sep-13
114,480.2
51.5
830.9
5,823.0
11,967.0
7,530.0
4,437.0
26,090.8
5,789.5
15,251.4
4,493.6
556.3
2,683.0
7,903.0
18,662.0
20,748.0
14,231.0
5,490.0
21,870.0
136,350.2
1.45%

Oct-13
114,692.0
51.7
835.1
5,834.0
11,986.0
7,542.0
4,444.0
26,130.2
5,784.1
15,295.8
4,493.6
556.7
2,688.0
7,910.0
18,706.0
20,771.0
14,284.0
5,496.0
21,862.0
136,554.0
1.81%

Nov-13
114,835.1
51.4
830.3
5,833.8
11,974.5
7,532.6
4,441.9
26,189.6
5,791.8
15,334.6
4,506.8
556.4
2,690.8
7,925.3
18,744.3
20,791.9
14,295.9
5,507.2
21,837.7
136,672.8
1.05%

Dec-13
115,033.3
51.3
833.3
5,855.4
11,973.7
7,532.6
4,441.1
26,233.2
5,799.0
15,326.1
4,551.0
557.1
2,686.0
7,939.0
18,789.4
20,834.2
14,325.3
5,512.5
21,827.3
136,860.6
1.66%