Food Security in the Midst of Natural Calamities, Disasters and Threats

Ghizan Saleh
Head, Food and Agriculture Cluster, National Professors Council; and Deputy Vice Chancellor (Research and Innovation), National Defence University of Malaysia, Sungei Besi, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Outline
Food Security Natural Calamities, Disasters and Threats Impact on Agriculture Production and Food Security Important Issues Way forward

Human Security
Military Security Capability of a Nation State to defend itself against and/or avoid military aggression. Border Conflicts Terrorism Coups Riots Invasion Battles and Wars

Human Security
Non-Military Security Cyber Security Environmental Security Water Security Food Security Agriculture is Life Energy Security Health Security

Food Security
Do we learn a lesson from Food Crisis 20072008?
Drastic price increases World price increase 2006 2008; then 2010-2011:

Example (2007-2008): Rice - 217% Wheat 136% Corn 125% Soybeans 107%

Causes of Food Crisis:

Population growth Increased demand for more resource intensive food Petroleum and fertiliser price increase Declining world food stockpiles Financial speculation Trade liberalisation Food for fuel Idling of farmland Agricultural subsidies Distorted global market Soil and productivity losses Climate Change, Natural disasters, calamities and threats*

* Natural disaster is a serious non-military threat to national security.

 There is no love more sincere than the love for food

Natural disasters and threats

Tornadoes Forest Fires* Floods* Blizzards Cyclones/Typhoon/ Hurricanes* Heat Wave * affecting Malaysia

Tsunami* Volcanic Eruption Earthquakes Mudslides Drought* Hail Pests and Diseases*

Natural disasters
385 major disasters in 2010:
China, India, Philippines, US and Indonesia: worst affected 297 000 deaths 217 million people adversely affected US $124 billion in economic damages

Hurricane Katrina

2004

2005

2006

2011

Aceh tsunami

Cyclone Nargis

Natural disasters
Christchurch earthquake 2011 Haiti earthquake 2010 Pakistan Flood 2010 Malaysia?? Johore, East Coast Floods, 2005

Trends in natural disasters and threats

Source: CRED International Disaster Database, 2011

Trends in natural disasters and threats

Source: CRED International Disaster Database, 2011

Top 10 affected countries by no. of events, 2010

Y= climatological R= geophysical B=hydrological G= meteorological (CRED 2011)

Top 10 most important disasters by victims, 2010

Source: CRED International Disaster Database, 2011

Global Climate Change and Natural Disaster

Surface temperatures increasing

Frequency of heavy precipitation events increasing

Tropospheric temperatures increasing

Tropical cyclone intensity increasing CLIMATE CHANGE Extreme temperatures increasing

Ocean heat content increasing

Sea level rise

More intense and longer droughts

Area of seasonally frozen ground decreasing

Glaciers and snow over decreasing

Serious Effects of Food Crisis

Famine Asia and Africa Political Instability e.g. food riots, unrests and demonstrations, killings in Haiti (President was dismissed); the Philippines (Rebellion of the Hungry); Ethiopia, Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mynmar, Yemen, Mozambique, etc. Economic Depression - inflation

2008 Food Crisis Scenario in Malaysia

Situation worsened by increase in fuel price, therefore high cost of production of fertilisers and other inputs resulting in farmers income affected.

Increase in price of other food commodities; sugar, flour, beef, chicken, fish, etc.
Increase in Inflation, by 2.5%.

2008 Food Crisis Senario in Malaysia

Increase in price of food items, especially rice (price almost doubled), animal feed Rice became less available
Malaysia imports 28% rice; particularly from Thailand, China, Vietnam, India and Pakistan. During food crisis, Thailand and China do not have enough, while Vietnam and India banned their rice exports.

Future risks
(some examples)
Rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events expected due to climate change 50 million people at risk in 2080 due to storm surges and landfall typhoons:
10 million people experienced coastal flooding in 2005 Rise in urbanization and population densities will add to the risks

Natural disaster impacts on agriculture

Cereal prices and temperature change

Impact on agriculture

Source: www.cma.gov.cn

Natural disaster damage to agriculture (Asia) (average per year, 1980-2012)

Country Indonesia India Maldives Sri Lanka Pakistan Agriculture, livestock, & irrigation damage US$ 224.80 million US$ 37.51 million US$ 11.07 million US$ 3.00 million US$ 337.20 million Fisheries damage US$ 510.9 million US$ 567.8 million US$ 25.1 million US$ 97.0 million NA

Source: Individual country damage assessment reports, The World Bank

Natural disaster damage to agriculture (Africa)

COUNTRY
Dominican Rep. Grenada Guyana Jamaica St. Kitts/ Nevis St. Lucia

DISASTER
Hurricanes (1995) Hurricanes (2004) Floods (2005) Floods (2006) Hurricanes (1988) Hurricanes (1995) Hurricanes (2007) Hurricanes (2007)

ESTIMATED VALUE
US $12 million US $36.6 million US $54.5 million US $22.5 million JA $1.66 billion US $15 million US $10 million US $16.9 million

Source: Individual country damage assessment reports, The World Bank

Natural disaster damage in Malaysia (1995-2005)

Disaster
Flood Drought Pests and Diseases

Damage to Agriculture
RM 50 million/ year (US$ 15 million/ year) RM 20 million/year RM 30 million/year

Source: Individual country damage assessment reports, The World Bank

Disaster Situations in Thailand (year 1989-2010)

Disasters Numbers (times) 213 9 36,024 46,986 1 People Injured 7,896 > 500 1,367 3,775 11,775 People killed 2,938 541 842 1,639 5,401
Agricultural damage (million US)

Flood Landslide Storm Fire Tsunami Total

3,735.1 66. 2 163.0 916.7 225.8

83,233

> 25,313

11,361

5,040.8

Source: Department of the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Ministry of Interior, USA

Flood Situation in Thailand, 2011

July 2011- January 2012 Affected 65 provinces, 684 districts, 4,086,138 households and 13,595,192 people. Damage on agricultural areas: US$ 11.20 billion; 4 million ha rice farms 110,500 head livestock 13,961 roads; 777 drainage ditches; 724 bridges/bridge-necks; 231,919 fish/shrimp/clam farms.

Source: Department of the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,

Ministry of Interior

Tsunami Aceh Indonesia 2004

Total damage and losses: US$ 9.9 billion Agricultural losses: US$4.45 billion Agricultural areas affected: 61,816 ha Damages can be due to salinity, de-surfacing of landscape and infrastructures

Before

After

Sea Level Rise

Bangladesh Total damage: US$13 million/ year 16% of national rice production lost
India Total damage: US$ 7 million/ year Inundate and ruined more than 1700 km2 agricultural land
Source: FAOSTAT, 2010

Tsunami: Fukushima, Japan

(ABARES, 2011)

Direct losses to crops and livestock, and damages to farm land and production facilities:
US$ 9.5 b 8% of Japanese farm output 14% of rice output 5% of fruit and vegetable output Long term damage and effects to health security radiation, etc -- ??

Source: Japan MOA, June 2011 )

Way forward/ Solution

Policy Revision and Structural Reforms
Longer term stock pile not only in rice Subsidies restructuring Land utilisation Minimum farm price assurance Farm insurance Long-term programme and support

Way forward
Modern food production technologies
Intensive agriculture under controlled environment

New technologies/approaches
Application of GIS technologies: To analyse data/information from climate models to assess disaster risks
Such analysis can inform the design of key infrastructure; help insurers assign a price to low-probability risks with high loss potential

Need to make early warning systems more user friendly: Focus on the needs of target audience/communities More attention on post-disaster issues Reforms to legislation, organisations and policy
E.g.: Establishment of new laws, warning systems in Indonesia after the 2004 tsunami

Need reliable estimates of disaster risks to encourage private sector to invest in risk-transfer tools: Need reliable and transparent data/information collection and verification with strong public good characteristics

FUTURE FARMING

http://gothamgreens.com/our-farm/, www.businessinsider.com/gotham-greens-2011-7#but-theyre-really-a-bargain-on-freshdirect-where-two-packages-go-for-6-18#ixzz1T1Djhfa0

www.cityscapefarms.com/soillessfarming/

James Rakocy, Donald Bailey, Charlie Shultz and Jason Danaher. 2010. The Status of Aquaponics 2010 http://www.greenrightnow.com/weareaustin/2009/05/12/farm-in-a-barrel-raise-fish-and-grow-your-own-organic-vegetables/#more-3707

Home town farms

Stack farm

Plant Factory

http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20080902/157304/

Way forward
Sustainable food production Organic farming Biofertilizer and bio-pesticide SALM, GAP Precision agriculture Increasing carbon sequestration by increasing soil organic matter (organic amendment and organic fertilizers)

Way forward
Breeding for Crops Adaptable to Factors of Climate Change
- Develop and produce local breeds and varieties - Maintain great genetic diversity of plant varieties and animal breeds, particularly for pest and disease tolerance - Exploit the full potential of biotechnology - Combat bio-terrorism

Way forward
Alternative/ Artificial Foods?? Realise level of Countrys Vulnerability
Good Alarm system for help e.g. USDA Agriculture Disaster Assistance - Adaptive risk management measures - Risk transfer approaches

Agriculture is Life