Consultation Summer Reliability Assessment May 2011

Summer Reliability Assessment Consultation
25 May 2011
CD/T02/001
Document CD/T02/001
Approved by NC
Recipients of controlled copies ADWEC, TRANSCO, ADDC, AADC Bureau
Summer Reliability Assessment Consultation
CD/T02/001
25 May 2011
Summer Reliability Assessment Author KB Document CD/T02/001 Issue 1 Page 1 of 23 Publication date 25 May 2011 Approved by NC
Foreword
1. One of the duties of the Bureau is to provide the Abu Dhabi Government with independent briefings on the status of the electricity sector. Such briefings cover all aspects of the sector: strategic, operational, technical and commercial. An important matter for the Government is how well prepared the sector is to meet the summer demand in the forthcoming year, this being the time when the sectors capabilities are most extended. To date, the Bureau has provided ad hoc briefings to the Government on forecast summer status and any issues likely to arise. The Bureau now proposes establishing a routine annual process to produce a Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA). This will be an assessment of how well-equipped and prepared the sector is to satisfy customer demand during the coming summer peak. The intention is that the SRA would be finalised by the end of the last quarter of each year; the first SRA will be completed at the end of 2011. The SRA will draw together information for the whole sector. It is envisaged that the final confidential report to the Government will be a brief summary, with the emphasis on clearly identifying key issues and status. The SRA will present the Bureaus assessment of status, based on information provided by sector companies. Consequently, there will need to be a defined process laying out the timetable and the information that sector companies will need to provide. It is anticipated that much of the information required will already be produced by sector companies. However it is recognised that there may need to be some changes to what is currently reported, the format in which it is provided and report timelines - the provision of data will in future need to strictly align with the SRA annual timetable. The Bureau envisages discussing the details of the information required for the SRA with individual companies subsequent to this consultation. It is recognised that the SRA is likely to evolve reflecting feedback on experience as it is used in the future. Clearly, given the visibility of, and audience for, the SRA, the Bureau will want to be assured of the quality of the underlying data. Where appropriate, the Bureau will discuss with sector companies the processes used to provide the data. The SRA, by presenting a succinct sector-wide summary, will be of great value to the Government. It will also provide a vehicle for the sector to communicate matters of importance. It is expected that in defining the SRA, the sector will have the opportunity to communicate at the highest level a consolidated view of the complex inter-dependencies, key risks and target investment areas to underpin immediate and medium-term security of supply. Moreover, defining the SRA will allow the sector to consider the most appropriate indicators of readiness and risk in each area. This consultation document describes the approach that the Bureau proposes to take, describing the scope of the SRA, the responsibilities of sector companies and the proposed annual timetable.
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11.
Specific consultation questions are included in the document and comments are also invited on any aspect of the proposals. Responses should be submitted by 30th June 2011 and should be sent to: Ali Al Mashjari, Production Manager, RSB amashjari@rsb.gov.ae
KARL BROWNSON DIRECTOR PRODUCTION AND CONTRACTS
Executive Summary
Introduction and Objectives
1. The Bureau proposes presenting to the Abu Dhabi Government an annual assessment of the robustness of the electricity sector to meet the forthcoming summer period. The assessment will be called the Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA). It is proposed that the SRA will cover the period May to October.
2.
Scope, Format and Content

3. The SRA will cover the whole sector and will be built upon a series of Topic Area assessments submitted by the responsible sector company. These will include: (a) (b) Demand Forecast (ADWEC) Production (ADWEC), based on (i) (ii) (c) (d) 4. Fuel Supply (ADWEC) Generation Capacity (ADWEC)
Transmission and Despatch (TRANSCO) Distribution (AADC, ADDC)
The emphasis will be on making the SRA succinct, with the target for its total length being about 10 pages (or less). The Topic Area assessments will in essence be risk assessments and will include Conclusions, Key Indicators, Summary Data, and Risks, Issues and Actions. The Bureau will build the SRA using the submitted Topic Area assessments but will reach its own view on the risks in each area. The Bureau will draft and issue the overall SRA document and consequently, the SRA will be a Bureau report. It is expected that the SRA will be a confidential document.
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6.
Process and Timetable

7. It is expected that the annual process will include initial definition work in the first part of the year and that data submission and SRA production will need to take place from September onwards, leading to the SRA being completed by year-end. The proposed timetable provides for an initial and final version of the Topic Area assessments, so that the final version will take account of the latest information available towards year-end. It is anticipated that much of the data needed for the SRA will already be readily available from sector companies; however it is recognised that there may be some additions and there will be a need to align processes and timetables.
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The first SRA will be produced at the end of 2011.
Consultation Process
11. Comments on the proposals are invited by 30th June 2011 and should be sent to; Ali Al Mashjari, Production Manager, RSB amashjari@rsb.gov.ae
Contents
1. 2. 3. 4. Introduction .................................................................................... 7
Objectives Consultation Questions........................................................... 7
Scope of the SRA .......................................................................... 9

Scope Consultation Questions ................................................................. 9
The Format of the SRA ................................................................ 10

Format Consultation Questions .............................................................. 10
Content of the SRA ...................................................................... 12

Annual Period to be Covered ................................................................. 12 Topic Area Assessments ........................................................................ 12 Consolidated Summary and Conclusions ............................................... 13 Content Consultation Questions ............................................................. 13
5.
Process and Annual Timetable .................................................... 15

The SRA Process ................................................................................... 15 Annual SRA Schedule ............................................................................ 15 Integration With Existing Sector Planning Processes ............................. 16 Consultation Questions .......................................................................... 16
6.
Consultation Process ................................................................... 17

Introduction............................................................................................. 18 Topic Area: Demand Forecast................................................................ 18 Topic Area: Fuel Supply ......................................................................... 18 Topic Area: Generation Capacity ........................................................... 19 Topic Area: Production ........................................................................... 20 Topic Area: Transmission and Despatch ................................................ 21 Topic Area: Distribution .......................................................................... 22
Annex A ................................................................................................ 18
1. Introduction
1.1 One of the duties of the Bureau is to brief the Abu Dhabi Government on the status of the electricity sector and highlight in advance any issues that should be brought to its attention. The Bureau gives these briefings as and when necessary and they may address any aspect of the sectors activities. Of particular interest to the Government is how well prepared the sector is for the summer period, since it is recognised that during this period the sectors capabilities and capacity are under the most stress. The Bureau therefore intends to institute a regular annual report to the Government which will look forward to the next summer period. In short, the objective will be to provide the Government with an annual overview (The Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA)) of the sectors robustness. The SRA will focus on the summer period and will be published in the last quarter of the year. In the above objective, robustness encompasses: (a) (b) (c) 1.5 The ability of the sector to meet forecast customer demand given normal operations. The ability of the sector to continue to meet forecast customer demand in the event of foreseeable but unexpected events. The ability of the sector to respond to and recover from unexpected events. The SRA will be drafted and issued by the Bureau and presented to the Government by the Bureau. It will be based upon information provided by sector companies reflecting their own detailed understanding of the status in their own areas of responsibility. Given that the Government is the main audience of the report, the emphasis will be on concise messages and clear communication of the main issues. There will also be benefits to the sector as a whole: the SRA will highlight issues which need to be addressed. By clearly identifying the most important issues, the SRA will be a valuable tool for RSB itself, helping to establish priorities for action. This consultation describes the proposed scope, format, and general content of the SRA; a detailed specification of the required data is not set out at this stage, but will be agreed subsequently with sector companies. This consultation also sets out the process and timetable for the production of the SRA.
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.8
Objectives Consultation Questions

1.9 (a) Consultation Questions Do you support the objective of preparing an annual, forward looking SRA for the Government which encompasses the whole sector?
(b)
Do you agree that it is appropriate to focus on the robustness of the sector, meaning the ability of the sector to meet forecast consumer demand under a variety of circumstances?
2. Scope of the SRA

2.1 It is intended that the scope of the SRA should encompass the end to end robustness of the sector from fuel supply through to supply to the end consumer. Figure 2.1 illustrates, conceptually, the scope of the SRA.
Figure 2.1: Scope of SRA
SUMMERRELIABILITYASSESSMENT
Production Assessment
DemandForecast Assessment
FuelSupply Assessment
Generation Capacity Assessment

Outages LOLE Availability
Distribution Assessment
Outages Emergency Plans Connections/ Reinforcements
Transmission& DespatchAssessment
Outages Emergency Plans
Primary
BUF
Capacity
Capacity
Capacity/ Connections/ Connections Constraints Reinforcements
2.2
Figure 2.1 shows the main areas which will be included in the SRA; by way of illustration, it also indicates some of the topics which will be included within each main area. A fuller description is given in Section 4. Figure 2.1 also indicates some of the relationships between the various main areas. In particular,, it recognises that the demand forecast forms an essential input and backdrop to a number of areas. For clarity, however, the figure does not seek to show every interaction: for example, aspects of the Transmission and Despatch Assessment would no doubt reflect information on up to date generation status and plans.
2.3
Scope Consultation Questions

2.4 (a) Consultation Questions Do you consider any areas should be added to or omitted from the scope of the SRA?
3. The Format of the SRA

3.1 Figure 3.1 illustrates how the SRA will be built from base data about each Topic Area provided by sector companies.
Figure 3.1: Format of the SRA
3.2
It is envisaged that at the top level the SRA will include a summary of conclusions about overall status for the summer period (perhaps including a traffic light status indicator) and a schedule of major risks, issues, and areas where mitigation action is needed. The aim would be to make this 1 page or less in length. RSB will draft this overview. Also included in the SRA will be a summary assessment for each of the Topic Areas. This will include conclusions about the status of the Topic Area for the summer period, again including a traffic light status indicator. These conclusions will be supported by a summary for the Topic Area including risks, issues and areas where action is needed; this will be supported by key indicators and reference data. Once again, the emphasis will be on conciseness for the Topic Area Assessments: ideally, each of these would be less than 1 page long. It is envisaged that the responsible sector company will submit their Topic Area Assessment(s) to RSB for consideration for inclusion in the SRA. A question to be considered would be how much supporting information would be required for the report. If the primary audience is the Government, then too much information may tend to obscure the conclusions.
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
Format Consultation Questions

3.7 Consultation Questions
(a) (b)
Do you agree with the overall format and structure proposed for the SRA? Would you propose any changes to the SRA format and structure?
4. Content of the SRA

4.1 In this section RSB proposes what information should be included in each section of the SRA. At this stage, the data required is not set out in precise detail: it is envisaged that the Bureau will agree the detailed specification subsequently with each of the responsible sector companies.
Annual Period to be Covered

4.2 The objective is for the SRA to cover the period of high risk. While peak demand is likely to occur during July to September, summer restrictions on planned outages commence in April. It is also recognised that demand increases very rapidly from May onwards and, for example, any forced outages during this period would therefore present a risk. To ensure that periods of high risk are covered, the Bureaus proposal is that the SRA should cover the period May to October. This will encompass peak demand and also periods where demand is changing rapidly.
4.3
Topic Area Assessments

4.4 This section summarises the proposed content for each Topic Area, starting with a generic description which will apply to each. Following this, Table 4.1 gives a summary of the content for each Topic Area Assessment. A fuller description for each Topic Area is given in Annex A. It is envisaged that each Topic Area Assessment will include the following: (a) A dashboard style Conclusion setting out the forecast status for the summer period. This would comprise: (i) A traffic light indicator for the forecast status for the Topic Area, generally as below: Arrangements are in place and ready to meet requirements in the Topic Area, taking account of any reasonably foreseeable issues/risks forecast (in full control). Significant risks/issues are identified and plans are ready and approved to have the required corrective arrangements in place (in control subject to identified dependencies). Risks/issues identified for which no corrective/mitigating actions are yet approved (At risk of failure without urgent action). (ii) (b) A brief statement of the forecast status of the Topic Area.
4.5
Key Indicators highlighting important aspects of forecast status. These are likely to be derived from Summary data for the Topic Area. Where possible, the intention will be to identify a set of key indicators for each Topic Area, together
with satisfactory, warning and danger levels for each indicator these will again be displayed in dashboard style. (c) (d) Summary data for key aspects of the Topic Area. Risks, Issues and Actions for the Topic Area.
4.6
Table 4.1 lists the main items to be included in the assessments for each Topic Areasee Annex A for fuller details.
Consolidated Summary and Conclusions

4.7 The top level of the SRA will comprise the Bureaus overall view on the readiness and resilience of the sector. This will be based on the individual Topic Area Assessments submitted by sector companies and, as appropriate, will include key conclusions and risks from these reports. The Consolidated Summary and Conclusions will also look across the sector to reach a view on the cumulative risk for the summer period arising and highlight any sector risks and issues which have not emerged from the Topic Area Assessments. A set of traffic light indicators will provide an overall view of forecast status. For example, as below: The sector is ready for the summer period and the risk of a major failure is low. There are significant risks to be addressed before the summer period. There is a high risk of a major failure during the summer period.
4.8
4.9
Content Consultation Questions

4.10 (a) (b) Consultation Questions: Do you agree that it is appropriate for the SRA to cover May to October annually? If not, what period do you consider would be best? Do you agree with the proposed generic contents of each Topic Area Assessment: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (c) Conclusion Key Indicators Summary data Risks, Issues, Actions
Please provide your views on the content proposed for each Topic Area (in Table 4.1 and Annex A). Specific proposals are welcomed at this stage, although the Bureau expects to discuss precise details with sector companies following this consultation. Is the information envisaged readily available within your company?
(d)
Table 4.1 Summary of Content of Topic Area Assessments

Topic Area Assessment Contents Principal Question to be Answered Responsible Company Conclusions What is forecast demand? Adequate Primary and BUF secured? ADWEC Adequate installed capacity? ADWEC Will production be adequate to meet demand? ADWEC Will the Transmission Network be able to serve all demand? TRANSCO Will the Distribution Network be able to serve all demand? AADC ADDC Ability to serve demand; emergency plans readiness Customer service quality will be maintained Significant risk that Customer service quality will decline High risk that Customer service quality will decline % demand served by substations where demand will exceed 80% firm capacity. Planned outages As per Key Indicators Areas of the network at risk; status of emergency plans Demand Forecast Fuel Supply Generation Capacity Production Transmission and Despatch Distribution
ADWEC
TrafficLlight Indicators
Size of increase in comparison with: previous summer previous forecast Peak demand Increase less than 5% over previous summer Increase 5% 10%
Extent to which adequate gas and Back Up Fuel have been secured Adequate Primary Fuel contractually secured Logistics incomplete: Substantial use of BUF Shortfall in secured Primary Fuel % required Primary Fuel secured at peak
Adequacy of generation capacity
Adequacy of production taking account of fuel and capacity situation Production will meet demand Significant risk of production shortfall High risk of production shortfall Same as Fuel Supply and Generation Capacity
Ability to serve demand; emergency plans and Black Start readiness Forecast demand will be served Significant risk demand will not be served High risk demand will not be served Forecast level of planned transmission outages, transmission and generation constraints As per Key Indicators Areas of the network at risk; status of emergency plans; Black Start readiness
LOLE satisfied
LOLE only satisfied by assuming new plant or exceptional measures LOLE not met
Increase of over 10%
Key Indicators
Forecast peak demand Increase over Previous year Increase over previous forecast Peak demand and demand through the summer period Any indications that demand will increase above forecast Uncertainty in forecast
LOLE System margin
Summary Data
Risks, Issues, Actions
Required and secured fuel through the summer period Any shortfall in Primary or BUF; resilience to interruptions in fuel supply
Available capacity and demand; system margin and LOLE Resilience to an unexpected loss of generation Derived from Fuel Supply and Generation Capacity
Summer Reliability Assessment Author KB Document CD/T02/001 Issue 1 Publication date Approved by 25 May 2011 NC Page 14 of 23
5. Process and Annual Timetable

The SRA Process Responsibilities
5.1 The Bureau will be responsible for drafting, issuing and communicating the SRA; the Bureau will use information provided by sector companies. In the interests of efficiency, the Bureau will use information provided by sector companies to determine a view of the sector, rather than developing separate independent data. However, all information provided to the Bureau must be evidenced and readily available for audit purposes as required. The main responsibilities in the SRA process are expected to be as below: (a) (b) (c) (d) Communicate Goals and Objectives RSB. Design SRA process RSB. Communicate SRA process and brief sector companies RSB. Oversee SRA process execution (including assurance on data) RSB. The key to the value and credibility of the SRA will be the quality of data on which it is based. Clearly, the Bureau will need to have confidence in the basis of the report, since the intended audience is the Government. Collect base data for a Topic Area the responsible sector company as identified in Section 4. Produce assessment for a Topic Area it is proposed that the responsible sector company will produce an initial assessment for consideration; RSB will provide a view and develop any submission further as it deems necessary. Produce Overall SRA, brief/discuss with sector companies RSB. Communicate SRA, brief recipients RSB.
5.2
5.3
(e) (f)
(g) (h)
Annual SRA Schedule

5.4 An indicative timetable is given in Table 5.1. This shows that, after definitional work earlier in the year, the production of the SRA would be carried out in the Autumn. The timetable allows for two cycles of the production of the Topic Area Aassessments. The first would be completed by the end of October, using the information then available. This would include the latest available Demand Forecast, which may well be that published earlier in the year. Provision is made for a second cycle, to reflect any updated information and comments on the first version. The final Topic Area Assessments would then be submitted to RSB by the end of November. It is appreciated that this may require changes to current sector company workplans, but this timeline will be necessary to achieve the intended objectives.
5.5
5.6
Table 5.1: Timetable

Date July July End Sep End Oct Mid Nov End Nov End Dec Start Jan Task/Event Design SRA and process, discuss with sector companies Confirm process, assumptions, requirements to sector companies Demand Forecast (first cycle) available Other Topic Area Assessments (using first cycle demand forecast) complete Demand Forecast (second cycle) available Second Cycle Topic Area Assessments (using second cycle demand forecast and any other updated information) available SRA complete Communicate SRA
Integration With Existing Sector Planning Processes

5.7 Ideally, the data required to produce the SRA would be available from the existing sector planning and forecasting processes, without further effort required on the part of sector companies. However, this is unlikely to be the case in all instances. Factors that will need to be taken account of include: (a) (b) (c) (d) Aligning the SRA process timetable and the existing sector planning and forecasting timetables to achieve a practicable and integrated process timetable. The Information required for the SRA may not all be readily available from existing processes. The Bureau will need to have confidence in the quality of data provided and consequently may seek assurance about the data provision processes. Sector companies will need to ensure that any internal approval processes are completed in time to allow submission of data in accordance with the agreed timetable.
5.8
Process and Timetable Consultation Questions

5.9 (a) (b) Consultation Questions: Do you agree with the proposed responsibilities in the SRA process and, in particular, the proposed responsibilities of sector companies? Do you agree with the proposed SRA timetable and specifically: (i) (ii) (c) (d) Is it of value to allow for two cycles in producing the Topic Area Assessments? Is the proposed timetable practicable?
What changes do you envisage you will need to make to be able to provide timely SRA data? Are there any particular issues related to integration of the SRA process with existing processes and timetables that you wish to raise?
6. Consultation Process
6.1 The Bureau is happy to discuss any of the proposals in this paper during the consultation period. Comments on any aspect of the proposals are invited including, but not limited to, the consultation questions included in the paper. Responses should be emailed to: Ali Al Mashjari, Production Manager, RSB amashjari@rsb.gov.ae Responses should be sent by 30th June 2011 6.4 At present, the Bureau intends to discuss consultation responses and the detailed design of the SRA with sector companies during July 2011.
6.2
6.3
Annex A
Introduction
A.1 This section gives an initial description, for each Topic Area, of the information that should be included by the responsible sector company in the Topic Area Assessment. The format for each follows the template given in Section 4. The Bureau envisages that the exact definition of the information to be included will be discussed with the responsible sector company.
A.2
Topic Area: Demand Forecast

A.3 The assessment for the Demand Forecast Topic Area will answer the questions: (a) (b) (c) What is the forecast peak demand for the summer period? Any changes in demand estimate from the previous Seven Year Statement? Is their a significant risk that forecast peak demand will further increase significantly?
A.4 A.5
The responsible sector company is ADWEC. The Conclusions for this Topic Area will highlight in particular any forecast increases to peak demand, or changes to the timing of the peak. For this Topic Area, the Traffic Light Indicator will be used to indicate the risk that forecast peak demand has increased significantly, or that its timing has changed. Key indicators would be: (a) % change of forecast peak demand over previous year actual peak.
A.6
A.7
Summary data will be a graph showing peak demand through the summer period.
Topic Area: Fuel Supply

A.8 The assessment for the Fuel Supply Topic Area will answer the questions: (a) (b) (c) Has adequate Primary Fuel been contractually secured for the summer period? What logistical risks exist for the delivery of the Primary Fuel (for example, pipeline outages) and how are these to be addressed? If required, has adequate liquid fuel been contractually secured to meet routine and continuous operation within the sector as per forecast requirements? Have all logistics for this fuel been contractually secured through the SRA period? What remaining logistical risks remain to meeting the routine and continuous operational requirements of the sector?
(d)
(e) (f)
Are strategic emergency (7-day) stocks of Back Up Fuel (BUF) sufficient and in place? What logistical risks exist for the delivery of BUF (for example, shipping arrangements) to meet a period of extended BUF usage and how have these been addressed? Are supporting letters in place from all IWPPs specifically confirming their individual full understanding of ADWECs requirements through the SRA period?
(g)
A.9 A.10
The responsible sector company is ADWEC. The Conclusions for this Topic Area will summarise to what degree adequate fuel has been secured to meet forecast summer demand, and how resilient this position is to unexpected supply interruptions. The Traffic Light Indicator will be If adequate Primary Fuel has been contractually secured, adequate additional fuel (outside LTA) or any form of energy to substitute has been contractually secured to meet short-term interruptions to Primary Fuel supply, and all required logistical arrangements are in place If adequate fuel has been contractually secured, but required logistical arrangements are not yet complete or significant use of BUF is planned If there is a shortfall in contractually secured Primary or BUF.
A.11
Key indicators will be (a) (b) (c) At the peak, % of required Primary Fuel that has been contractually and logistically secured and % that has been additionally assured. At the peak, the % of capacity for which the BUF requirement has been contractually and logistically secured. At the peak, the % of any shortfall in Primary Fuel that secured BUF will cover.
A.12
Summary data will be a graph showing, through the summer period, the Primary Fuel needed to meet forecast demand, the amount that has been secured contractually and logistically and the level of BUF which has been contractually and logistically secured to meet any Primary Fuel shortfall. Risks, Issues, and Actions will include an assessment of how resilient the fuel supply is to unexpected events: in particular, unexpected reductions in gas supply (e.g. a pipeline outage); or BUF logistical problems. Also highlighted will be any required decisions and actions.
A.13
Topic Area: Generation Capacity

A.14 The assessment for the Generation Capacity Topic Area will answer the questions: (a) Will adequate generation capacity be available to meet demand through the summer period?
(b) (c) (d) (e)
Are any significant generation outages or reductions in availability planned for the summer period? To what extent does meeting summer demand rely on the successful completion of planned generation outages or the commissioning of new plant? Will security of generation criteria be maintained at forecast demand? To what extent could unplanned generation outages in the summer be absorbed whilst still meeting forecast demand?
A.15 A.16
The responsible sector company is ADWEC. The Conclusions for this Topic Area will summarise to what degree the installed generation capacity is adequate to meet forecast demand, leaving aside any factors external to the plants, such as fuel availability. The Traffic Light Indicators will be If throughout the summer period the installed capacity taking account of forecast reliability and planned outages is adequate to meet demand, with the required Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) standard satisfied. If the installed capacity meets forecast demand with the required LOLE standard satisfied, but only with a reliance on commissioning of new plant, or by assuming exceptional measures (such as, for example, peak or emergency capacity from IWPPs). If at any time during the summer period, the installed capacity is not adequate to meet forecast demand and meet the required LOLE standard.
A.17
Key Indicators will be (a) (b) Overall LOLE for the summer period and LOLE for each week System margin (%) through the summer period
A.18
Summary Data will include a graph showing available capacity and forecast demand throughout the summer period. Risks, Issues and Actions will include consideration of to what degree an unexpected loss of generation capacity could be absorbed whilst still meeting forecast demand.
A.19
Topic Area: Production

A.20 The assessment for the Production Topic Area is based on the conclusions from the Fuel Supply and Generation Capacity Topic Areas taken together and will answer the questions: (a) (b) Will the production of electricity be sufficient to meet demand throughout the summer period? To what degree is the ability to meet demand resilient to unexpected events?
(c)
What, if any, exceptional measures will need to be taken to meet forecast demand through the SRA period and what impact would these have on water production?
A.21 A.22
The responsible sector company is ADWEC. The Conclusions will provide an overall view of the risk that production will not be able to meet demand in the summer period. The Traffic Light Indicators will be: If it is forecast that production will meet demand throughout the summer period, without reliance on exceptional measures (such as extended use of BUF or forced reductions in production of water). If it is forecast that there is a significant risk that production will not be able to meet demand at some time during the summer period (if, for example, LOLE only just meets the required standard overall or system margin is close to acceptable limits). If it forecast that there is a high risk that at some time during the summer period, production will not meet forecast demand (for example, LOLE does not meet the required standard, or supplies of Primary Fuel have not been secured, or extended use of BUF is planned).
A.23
The assessment for this Topic Area builds upon those for fuel and generation capacity, and it is not expected that additional Key Indicators or Summary Data will be required. Risks, Issues, Actions will explain the key factors leading to the risk assessment, and the actions necessary to mitigate the identified risks. The ability to maintain adequate production in the face of unexpected events will also be described.
A.24
Topic Area: Transmission and Despatch

A.25 The assessment for the Transmission and Despatch Topic Area will answer the questions: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Will the transmission network be able to serve forecast demand throughout the summer period? Will it be possible to meet the required security standards, including level of reserve on the network, throughout the summer period? Will any areas of the network be particularly at risk? To what extent does the ability of the network to serve forecast demand rely on enhancements and maintenance to be completed before the summer? How resilient is the network to unexpected events and are emergency plans ready to meet such occurrences? Are Black Start preparations ready?
A.26 A.27
The responsible sector company is TRANSCO. The Conclusions will summarise whether, given the planned configuration of the network and operating requirements and constraints, it will be possible to reliably serve
forecast demand. The ability to respond to unexpected events will be assessed, including the ability to recover from major failures. The Traffic light Indicators will be: If it is forecast that with the expected network configuration, all forecast demand will be served throughout the summer period. If it is forecast that there is a significant risk that all forecast demand will not be served at some point during the summer period, or that serving forecast demand depends on yet to be completed enhancements. If it is forecast that there is a high risk that all demand will not be served at some point during the summer period, or that security standards will not be met at some time during the summer. A.28 Key indicators will be (a) (b) (c) (d) Forecast level of generation and transmission constraints through the summer period. Forecast level of planned transmission outages through the summer period. Is suitable Emergency & Disaster Recovery plan available? Percentage of Demand at Single Circuit risk (With & without Derogation) during summer period.
A.29 A.30
Summary Data will be as for Key Indicators Risks, Issues, Actions will explain the key factors leading to the risk assessment, and the actions necessary to mitigate the identified risks.
Topic Area: Distribution

A.31 The assessment for the Distribution and Supply Topic Area will answer the questions: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) Will the distribution network be able to serve forecast demand throughout the summer period, without a decline in the customer service KPIs? Will any areas of the network be particularly at risk? Percentage of Demand at Single Circuit risk (With & without Derogation) during summer period. Is suitable Emergency & Disaster Recovery plan available? To what extent does the ability of the network to serve forecast demand rely on enhancements and maintenance to be completed before the summer? How resilient is the network to unexpected events, and are emergency plans ready to meet such occurrences?
A.32
The responsible sector companies are ADDC and AADC and it is envisaged that each will provide a separate assessment for their area of responsibility. The Conclusions will summarise whether, given the planned configuration of the network and operating requirements and constraints, it will be possible to serve forecast
A.33
demand (assuming adequate bulk supply from the TRANSCO network) whilst maintaining the quality of customer service. The Traffic light Indicators will be: If it is forecast that customer service quality and security of supply standards will with a high probability be maintained throughout the summer period. If it is forecast that there is a significant risk that security of supply or customer service quality will decline in the forthcoming summer period, or that achieving the required quality depends on yet to be completed enhancements. If it is forecast that there is a high risk that security of supply or customer service quality standards standards will be lower than during the previous summer. A.34 Key Indicators will be: (a) (b) Planned level of planned outages through the summer period. % of demand served by substations where forecast demand will exceed 80% of firm capacity.
A.35 A.36
Summary data will include that necessary to support the key indicators. Risks, Issues, Actions will identify any aspects of the network particularly at risk.

Consultation Summer Reliability Assessment May 2011

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Consultation Summer Reliability Assessment May 2011

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Formats disponibles

Summer Reliability Assessment Consultation

Recipients of controlled copies ADWEC, TRANSCO, ADDC, AADC Bureau

Summer Reliability Assessment Consultation

KARL BROWNSON DIRECTOR PRODUCTION AND CONTRACTS

Scope, Format and Content

Transmission and Despatch (TRANSCO) Distribution (AADC, ADDC)

Process and Timetable

The first SRA will be produced at the end of 2011.

Scope of the SRA .......................................................................... 9

The Format of the SRA ................................................................ 10

Content of the SRA ...................................................................... 12

Process and Annual Timetable .................................................... 15

Consultation Process ................................................................... 17

Objectives Consultation Questions

2. Scope of the SRA

Figure 2.1: Scope of SRA

Generation Capacity Assessment

Capacity/ Connections/ Connections Constraints Reinforcements

Scope Consultation Questions

3. The Format of the SRA

Figure 3.1: Format of the SRA

Format Consultation Questions

4. Content of the SRA

Annual Period to be Covered

Topic Area Assessments

Consolidated Summary and Conclusions

Content Consultation Questions

Table 4.1 Summary of Content of Topic Area Assessments

Adequacy of generation capacity

Increase of over 10%

LOLE System margin

Risks, Issues, Actions

5. Process and Annual Timetable

Annual SRA Schedule

Table 5.1: Timetable

Integration With Existing Sector Planning Processes

Process and Timetable Consultation Questions

Topic Area: Demand Forecast

Topic Area: Fuel Supply

Topic Area: Generation Capacity

(b) (c) (d) (e)

Topic Area: Production

Topic Area: Transmission and Despatch

Topic Area: Distribution

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