Outlook and Indicators

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Issue #13

Economic

Gross Domestic Product by Economic Sectors M14.11.2013 The growth rate of GDP in the first two quarters of 2013 is 1.9 %, which is lower than the indicator of the same period of 2012 (7.5%). Its under the question to achieve the growth rate projected by either the Government of Georgia (6%, 4%) or by IMF (2.5%) for 2013. The structure of GDP by sectors did not change during the first two quarters of 2013. Among the sectors, the highest growth of production was in Agriculture (6.7%) and the highest decrease of production was in Construction(-12%).
Gross domestic product at constant 2003 prices and the real growth rate
4500 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2011 I II III IV 2012 I II III IV GDP real growth rate 2013 I II GDP at constant prices
GDP real growth rate (%)
growth rate and the share in GDP(%)

and quarrying (9.9%) and Financial Activities (9%) . In the second quarter of 2013, the highest decrease of production was in the following sectors : Construction (-14.5%) and community, social and personal service activities (-7.3%).
Value added in the manufacture sector,it's growth rate and the share in GDP
900 800 700 600

In the second quarter of 2013, the growth rate of GDP is 1.5%, which is lower in comparison with the indicators of the second quarter of 2012 as well as the first quarter of 2013 (8.2%, 2.4%). In the second quarter of 2013, the highest growth of production was in the following sectors: mining

4000 3500 3000

mln.GEL

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

25%

growth rate and the share in GDP (%)

20%

15%
mln.GEL

500 400 10% 300 200 100 0 2011 I II III IV 2012 I II III IV 2013 I II share in GDP production made in manufacture (at constant 2003 prices) growth rate (compared to the previous year corresponding indicator) 0%

2013 and reached 6.2% in the second quarter of 2013.

In the second quarter of 2013, the industry sector has still the largest contribution (21.6%) in GDP. In 2012, the growth rate of industry was slowed down, but it began to grow in the first quarter of

It should be noted, that in the second quarter of 2013, FDI in the mining and manufacturing

5%

industry increased significantly (255%), while the volume of the loans to this sector reduced (-16%).

Value added in the trade sector ,it's growth rate and the share in GDP
700 18% 16% 14% 500 12% 10% 8% 300 6% 4% 2% 100 0% -2% 2011 I II III IV 2012 I II III IV 2013 I II share in GDP production made in trade (at constant 2003 prices) growth rate (compared to the previous year corresponding indicator)

In the second quarter of 2013, the share of the Trade sector in GDP is 12.8%. In the second quarter of 2013, the Trade in-

600

in comparison with the second quarter of 2012 (11.6%) as well as in comparison with the first quarter of 2013 (6.8%). It should be noted, that in the second quarter of 2013 the loans for the Trade sector increased (41%).

mln.GEL

creased (2.9%), but its growth rate slowed down

400

200

Outlook and Indicators

www.pmcg-i.com Gross Domestic Product by Economic Sectors
Value added in the construction sector,it's growth rate and the share in GDP
400 350 300 15% 250
mln.GEl

Economic

NIssue #13

M14.11.2013

30% 25% 20%

10% 5% 0% -5%

200 150 100

growth rate and the share in GDP (%)

-10% 50 0 2011 I II III IV 2012 I II III IV 2013 I II share in GDP production made in construction (at constant 2003 prices) growth rate (compared to the previous year corresponding indicator) -15% -20%

It should be noted, that in the second quarter of 2013, the volume of FDI in construction significantly increased (801.3%) in comparison with the second quarter of 2012.

In the second quarter of 2013 the share of construction in the formation of real GDP is 7.3%. In the second quarter of 2013, the construction significantly decreased (-14.5%) compared with the second quarter of 2012

450 400 350 300

mln.GEL

Value added in the agriculture sector,it's growth rate and the share in GDP

14% 12%
growth rate and the share in GDP(%)

the loans to this sector increased (71%).

In the second quarter of 2013, the share of agriculture sector in GDP is 10.6%. In the second quarter of 2013, agriculture significantly increased (6.7%) in comparison with the second quarter of 2012 . It should be noted that the FDI in the agricultural significantly decreased (-27%), while in comparison with the previous quarters, the volume of This can be explained by the growth of budget subsidies in the sector.

10% 8% 6% 4%

250 200 150 100 50 0 2011 I II III IV 2012 I II III IV 2013 I II production made in agriculture (at constant 2003 prices) growth rate (compared to the previous year corresponding indicator)

2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

share in GDP

Basic Economic Indicators

Nominal GDP in current prices (mln USD)
Per capita GDP (USD) GDP real growth, percent Consumer Price Index (Annual Average) Foreign Direct Investment (USD) Unemployment Rate External Public Debt (mln USD) Poverty Level

2011
14 438 3 230.7 7.20% 108,5 1 117 15.10% 4200.5

2012
15829.7 3519.6 6.1% 99.1 911.6 15% 4357.1

I12*
3388.3 753.4
6.70%

II12*
3918.3 871.2
8.20%

III12*
4156.1 924.1
7.50%

IV12*
4367.6

I 13*
3487.6

II 13*
3929.9

Contact Information

971.1
2.80%

777.8
2.40%

876.5
1.5%

PMC Research

Tamar Jugheli
261.2
-

217.7
-

199
-

233.7

226.2

232.4

E-mail: research@pmcg.ge
www.pmcg-i.com

E-mail: t.jugheli@pmcg.ge T: (+995) 2 921171

9.20%

9.7%*

Source:

National Statistics Office of Georgia, Ministry of Finance of Georgia, National Bank of Georgia

*projected

-2-