University of Vermont Department of Mathematics & Statistics STAT 51 Syllabus Course: Probability with Statistics !

ffice: 106 Mansfield House essa!in! to co unicate to !ffice "ours: TBA

nstructor: Katherine Merrill #$mail%&ebpa'e: Use blackboard

e" Blackboard #eb$a!e

!ffice (hone: 6%6&'()* Te)tboo*: +Statistics, conce$ts and -ontro.ersies,/ 0a.id S1 Moore and #illia 21 3ot4, 5 th 6dition, 7ree an Publishin!1 A co$y of the te8tbook is on reser.e at the library1 Book -o $anion #ebsite" htt$"99www1whfree an1co 9scc5e 1

Course Description: Probability with Statistics is a course desi!ned to e8$lore and understand the role that statistics $lay in our e.eryday li.es1 #e:ll be!in the course by lookin! at the ways that statistics are used and collected; we:ll consider different a$$roaches to sa $lin! and study desi!n1 The second $ortion of the class will be de.oted to ways that data can be understood usin! !ra$hs and nu erical su aries1 The third $ortion will co.er the basics of $robability and $robability distributions1 The last $ortion of the class will deal with !enerali4in! sa $le results to the $o$ulation, usin! confidence inter.als and hy$othesis tests1 A lar!e a ount of our in.esti!ation will in.ol.e readin! and analy4in! real world news and statistical re$orts, as well as in&class acti.ities1 Technolo'y: <ou are re=uired to obtain a basic calculator ca$able of doin! $owers and s=uare roots1 2t is reco ended to ha.e a T2&>' or T2&>( is $ossible? these are .ery easy to use and ha.e so e really neat statistical features1 @MP software Afree UBM downloadC is o$tional for the $roDect1 <our !rade for the course will be based on" (ro-ect .1/01 2ui33es .1/01 Atten,ance .501 Tests .4/0 each1 5inal #)am .1501 7inal letter !rades are deter ined as follows" A6 *5&100 76 >5&>* C6 A *(&*6 7 >(&>6 C A$ *0&*' 7$ >0&>' C$

+ra,in':

55&5* 5(&56 50&5'

D6 D D$

65&6* 6(&66 60&6'

#)pectations an, UVM (olicies: Students are e8$ected to act in accordance to the rules outlined in the Universitys Policy Statements 1 8eli'ious "oli,ays" 2f you need to iss class to obser.e a reli!ious holiday, $lease sub it the dates of your absence in writin! by the end of the second full week of the se ester1 9ate &or*%Absences" <ou ay sub it two late =ui44es1 Make&u$ tests will be !i.en if an e er!ency arises1

Acade ic 2nte!rity Policy -ode of Student Ei!hts and Ees$onsibilities 76EPA Ei!hts 0isclosure Diversity at UBM and in the -olle!e of 6n!ineerin! and Mathe atical Sciences Cell phones: i(hones: i(o,s: iAnythin'" To be res$ectful of the learnin! en.iron ent, it is e8$ected that none of these ite s will be out or turned on in the classroo 1 These items are forbi,,en to be out ,urin' an e)amination1 The TA for the course" TBA1 Peer Tutorin! throu!h the Fearnin! -oo$ is a.ailable1

"elp !utsi,e Class:

Aca,emic Assistance: Students with docu ented learnin! disabilities are entitled by law to certain +reasonable acco odations1/ 2f you ha.e a docu ented reason for s$ecial acco odations, you ust $ro.ide written e.idence of this as soon as $ossible fro the a$$ro$riate office1 7urther info at htt$"99www1u. 1edu9Gas$$ro!s 1

Course +oals H1" Students should !ain an understandin! of and a$$reciation for the utility and li itations of data and statistical ethods for sol.in! real&world $roble s1 H)" Students should !ain an a$$reciation for the $otential $itfalls, biases, and ethical issues1 ethods of data collection, includin! an understandin! of

H'" Students should !ain facility with the ter inolo!y, notation, and tools !enerally found in an introductory statistics course1 2n $articular, students should be co fortable readin! and understandin! an article citin! su ari4ed statistics, and be able to dissect it into rele.ant course&related co $onents1 H(" Students should de onstrate a basic understandin! of the laws and rules of $robability, and how they relate to statistics, $articularly the ideas of rando ness and statistical si!nificance1 H%" Students should de onstrate facility with basic statistical ethods, includin! confidence inter.als and hy$othesis tests, and ore i $ortantly, students should understand when a $articular ethod is a$$ro$riate, and how to a$$ro$riately inter$ret results in the conte8t of a stated $roble 1 H6" Students should be able to for ulate and co $recise 6n!lish1 Course 5ocus To be able to co unicate solutions to $roble s in clear, !ra atically correct,

unicate and inter$ret statistics1

Course 9evel 4&scores only, one sa $le inferential statistics Course Topics Ee=uired to$ics listed below, in orders of cha$ters 1&)( Ae8cludin! )'C in Moore I 3ot4 2ntroduction J.er .iew of Statistics and Statistical Studies 0ata -lassification Eando ness and Statistical Studies Eando ness for Si $le Eando Sa $le

Eando ness for Si ulation Studies Sa $le Sur.eys Asa $lin! ethods, sur.ey scri$t desi!n issuesC

-o $arati.e Jbser.ational Studies Aconfoundin! and its i $licationsC 68$eri ents Ae8$eri ental desi!n" issues, ter inolo!y, statistical si!nificanceC 0ata 6thics

0escri$ti.e Statistics 7re=uency 0istributions and Hra$hs Adata table, bar chart, $ie chart, histo!ra , ste &leaf, bo8$lotC Measures of -entral Tendency A ean, edianC

Measures of Bariation and Position Aran!e, 2KE, standard de.iationC

3or al 0istribution 6 $irical Eule 7indin! $robabilities and findin! $ercentile .alues

-orrelation and Ee!ression

Scatter$lot -orrelation -oefficient Finear Ee!ression -onsu er Price 2nde8 for calculatin! constant dollars

Probability Basic -once$ts of Probability A ulti$lication rule, addition ruleC Sa $lin! 0istributions for Pro$ortions Sa $lin! 0istributions for Means LLAo$tionalC

2nferential Statistics -onfidence 2nter.al for a Pro$ortion Hy$othesis Test for a Pro$ortion -onfidence 2nter.al for a Mean AM known and9or lar!e nC , LLAo$tionalC Hy$othesis Test for a Mean AM known and9or lar!e nC, LLAo$tionalC -hi&S=uare Test of 2nde$endence