Rainfall Induce Landslides

Why they occur and some

mitigating measures
Tan S.A
1
, David Toll
2
, and K.K.Phoon
1
1
The National University of Singapore
2
University of Durham, UK
Latsis Symposium by CCES at ETH-Z,
Zurich, Switzerland, 17-19 Sep 2007
2
Outline
Introduction
Climate and slope stability
Soil Strength as function of Infiltration
Cases: Kranji Racecourse and NUS
Biz School
3
Introduction
Climate in the tropics
Singapore landslides and rainfall events
empirical observations
4
Rainfall Events Leading to Landslides in
Singapore
5
Relation between rainfall, antecedent rainfall
and shallow slips
The previous plot showed some minor slips after 1-day
heavy rainfall > 100mm with little antecedent rainfall; e.g.
NUS and NTU Feb-Mar 1984
Other minor slips occurred at low 1-day rainfall with
significant 5-day antecedent rainfall; e.g. NUS slip 28 Dec
1984 with 18mm rain, but after 5-day antecedent rainfall
of 85mm
The data suggests that a total rainfall of 100mm within 6-
day period (equivalent to a sustained 15-20 mm/day for 6
days) is trigger for minor slips to occur in Singapore
residual soils
For large landslides; a total rainfall > 320mm seems to be
the trigger
6
Pore-water Pressure Profiles in NTU-CSE
Instrumented Slope
7
Inference from Measured Pore-Water Pressures
(pwp) at NTU-CSE
Wet period rainfall=86mm in Dec 1999; dry period rainfall = 1mm in
Mar 2000
Small rainfall in Mar 2000 produce large change pwp near surface at
1-1.5m depth
After 24 hr equalization; pwp near surface drop back and pwp at 1-
1.5m depth increased slightly, due to water infiltration
But at deeper depth of 2.5-3m no significant pwp change
For large rainfall in Dec 1999; observe only small cahnges in pwp
near surface, with pwp approaching hydrostatic condition
Data suggests that there is still suction in slope even wettest time of
the year
8
Unsaturated soil strength
State Variables defined as:
=
=
) (
) (
w a
a n
u u
u Net normal stress
Matric suction
9
Unsaturated soil strength
Shear Strength is the Extended Mohr-
Coulomb failure criteria:
=
=
=
=
=
=
+ + =
) (
) (
'
'
:
tan ) ( ' tan ) ( '
w a
a n
b
b w a a n
u u
u
c
where
u u u c

Shear strength
Effective cohesion for saturated soils
Effective friction angle for saturated soils
Friction angle with respect to matric suction in unsaturated soils
Net normal stress
Matric suction
10
Saturated soil strength
Shear Strength is Mohr-Coulomb:
=
=
=
=
+ =
=
) (
'
'
:
' tan ) ( '
, '
w n
w n
b
u
c
where
u c
and

Shear strength
Effective cohesion for saturated soils
Effective friction angle for saturated soils
Normal effective stress
11
Infiltration Seepage Analysis
Transient Seepage FEM Analysis
Soil Water Characteristic Function
Soil Permeability Function
Infiltration Input
Results of Analysis
12
Equation of Continuity
Constitutive Equation: Darcys Law
y
x
q
q h
Q c
x y t

+ + =

Groundwater Flow Theory
x x
h
q k
x

y y
h
q k
y

q : the specific discharge (m/s)

c : the storage coefficient (m
-1
)
h: total head (m)
Q: a source (m
3
/s) per unit vol.
k : the coefficient of permeability (m/s)
Flow in
Flow out
Flow out
Flow in
Stored in
13
Water flow in unsaturated soil
Water content and permeability in unsaturated zone is a
function of suction pressure
14
Water flow in unsaturated soil
() Soil water characteristic curve
K () permeability curve
( )
s
C Storage Coefficient

( ) k k Soil Permeability =
These curves are from experiments
Unsaturated soil has k several
orders less than saturated soils
15
Precipitation:
max
rain max min
min
if Ponding
if and
if No infiltration
x x y y
h y h
q n q n q h y h h y h
h y h
= +
+ = < + > +
= +
Boundary Conditions for Rainfall
Flux boundary condition
Closed
Closed
Closed
16
Result of 1-D Infiltration Analysis
1D Infiltration
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Suction Pressure [kN/m2]
E
l
e
v
a
t
i
o
n

[
m
]
Initial SS
T=0.1 day
T=0.25day
T=0.5day
T=1.0day
T=5.0day
Gardner's Theory
Gardner's 1D Infiltration Problem
alpha 2
Sres= 0.23 ksat= 1 m/day
Ssat= 1
p S(p) K(p)
0 1.00 1.00
0.5 0.51 0.37
1 0.33 0.14
1.5 0.27 0.05
2 0.24 0.02
2.5 0.24 0.01
3 0.23 0.00
Gardner's Theory
q ksat y p [m] P[kN/m2]
2 0.1 1 0.00 0.00 0
2 0.1 1 0.50 0.42 4
2 0.1 1 1.00 0.75 8
2 0.1 1 1.50 0.97 10
2 0.1 1 2.00 1.08 11
2 0.1 1 2.50 1.12 11
2 0.1 1 3.00 1.14 11
(

+
|
|

\
|
=

sat
y
sat
p
k
q
e
k
q

. 1 ln
1
p
e S S S S
res sat res

+ = ) (
p
e k k
sat

= .
Input rainfall = 0.1 m/day
SS solution
after 5 days
Infiltration caused significant loss of suction
Loss of suction result in reduction of shear strength, which may trigger slope failure
17
1D Infiltration Video
Click for Video
Input flux= 0.1mm/day
Closed
Closed
Closed
18
Case 1: Kranji Racecourse
About Dec 1998, a 70m long slope with
gradient of 1(V):2(H) was cut in medium stiff
residual clayey soil
After period of intense rainfall, slip failure
landslip about 1 to 1.5m deep over slope
of 30m length
Slope repaired using dry cut fill soil obtained
from same site failed repeatedly without use
of subsurface drains
19
Shallow slip of soil almost parallel to slope surface
20
Develop tension crack below crest of slope, why?
21
m
99. 750
100.000
100.250
100.500
100.750
101.000
101.250
101.500
101.750
102.000
102.250
102.500
102.750
103.000
103.250
103.500
103.750
104.000
104.250
104.500
104.750
105.000
105.250
105.500
105.750
106.000
106.250
m
100.000
100.500
101.000
101.500
102.000
102.500
103.000
103.500
104.000
104.500
105.000
105.500
106.000
106.500
107.000
107.500
108.000
108.500
109.000
109.500
110.000
110.500
111.000
m
100.500
101.000
101.500
102.000
102.500
103.000
103.500
104.000
104.500
105.000
105.500
106.000
106.500
107.000
107.500
108.000
108.500
109.000
109.500
110.000
110.500
111.000
111.500
Initial Steady-State
After 5-days rain at 20
mm/day, near Steady-
State
After 1-day rain at 20
mm/day
Rain cause saturation front to migrate from toe
up the slope
After 5 days of rain near Steady-State is
reached
Saturated zone has enlarged and reached
about 2/3 way up the slope
unsaturated
unsaturated
Infiltration Analysis GWH Plots for Rain 20
mm/day
22
Infiltration Analysis Rain 20 mm/day
Evolution of Saturation Zone
Constant
H2
Click for Video
Constant
H1
Closed No Flow
Input flux = 20mm/day
Input flux = 20mm/day
23
Shallow Slip of Saturated Zone (Head)
Click for Video
24
Shallow Slip of Saturated Zone (Flow)
Click for Video
25
Site investigation
Distance (m)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Distance (m)
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
E
l
e
v
a
t
i
o
n

(
m
R
L
)
Observed Slip Plane
Probable Ground
Water Table
P1
P2
P3
104.5
103.8
1V:2H
104.6
106.3
Waterstandpipes
After a few days
without rain, measured
GWT appears to
coincide with level of
observed slip surface
26
Influence of Infiltration on Suctions and Soil Strengths
Kranji Pore Pressure Distribution at Mid-Slope (3m up)
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20
Total Pore Pressures [kPa]
E
l
e
v
a
t
i
o
n

[
m
]
1-day
2-day
3-day
4-day
5-day
Kranji Pore Pressure Distribution at 4.5 m Up-Slope
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Total Pore Pressures [kPa]
E
l
e
v
a
t
i
o
n

[
m
]
1-day
2-day
3-day
4-day
5-day
After 5 days of rain, nearly all suction is removed up to mid-slope height
Suction of < 15 kPa remains at 4.5m height above toe of slope; c < 3 kPa
Table 1. Variation of Cohesion with Matric Suction
Matric suction [kPa] 5 10 15 20 25 30

b
[deg] kPa
10 0.88 1.76 2.64 3.53 4.41 5.29
15 1.34 2.68 4.02 5.36 6.70 8.04
20 1.82 3.64 5.46 7.28 9.10 10.92
b w a
u u c tan ) ( ' =
27
GWT
Parallel Seepage
H
h

slip plane
Failure analysis of Shallow Slip
= slope angle (degrees)
H = depth to slip surface (m)
h = height of GWT from slip surface (m)

tan
' tan )) /( ) ( 1 (
cos sin
' H h
H
c
FS
w

+ =
28
Failure analysis (contd)
Case

c
kPa

deg

kN/m
3


deg
H
m
h
m
FS State of Soil
1 10 22 18 26.5 1.5 0 1.74 Dry
2 5 21 18 26.5 1.5 0 1.23 Softened
3 3 20 18 26.5 1.5 0 1.01 Saturated/Soaked

4 5 21 18 26.5 1.5 0.1 1.20 Seepage
5 5 21 18 26.5 1.5 0.2 1.18 Seepage
6 5 21 18 26.5 1.5 0.4 1.12 Seepage
7 5 21 18 26.5 1.5 0.6 1.06 Seepage
8 5 21 18 26.5 1.5 0.8 1.01 Seepage

Table 2: Results of infinite slope stability analysis
In Case 3; failure may be triggered by saturation of shallow soils, resulting in reduction of soil shear
strength through loss of apparent cohesion from soil suction
In Case 8; failure may be triggered by a combination of seepage forces from rising water table, and
somewhat smaller loss of apparent cohesion from reduction in soil suction
29
Design for permanent stable slope
Internal drainage design to maintain
significant unsaturated soil zone in
shallow soils along slope
Transient seepage analysis to validate
design
Stability analysis to show that design
has adequate long-term FOS
30
Transient Seepage with 8m deep drains
at toe of slope and 20 mm/day rain
-15.000 -10.000 -5.000 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000
85.000
90.000
95.000
100.000
105.000
110.000
115.000
Acti ve groundwater head
Phase number: 1 Phase ti me: 5 day, Extreme groundwat er head 109.10 m
m
99. 600
100.000
100.400
100.800
101.200
101.600
102.000
102.400
102.800
103.200
103.600
104.000
104.400
104.800
105.200
105.600
106.000
106.400
106.800
107.200
107.600
108.000
108.400
108.800
109.200
Near Steady-State condition after 5 day
of rain at 20 mm/day
Unsaturated Zone
8m-deep drains
Constant
H2
Constant
H1
Closed No Flow
Input flux = 20mm/day
Input flux = 20mm/day
31
Infiltration Analysis Rain 20 mm/day
Saturation Zone for Slope with 8m Deep Internal Drains
8m-deep pipe drains
Click for Video
32
Infiltration Analysis Rain 20 mm/day
GW Head for Slope with 8m Deep Internal Drains
8m-deep pipe drains
Click for Video
33
Infiltration Analysis Rain 20 mm/day
Transient Flow for Slope with 8m Deep Internal Drains
8m-deep pipe drains
Click for Video
34
Influence of Infiltration on Suction Pressures in
Shallow Soils with 8m Deep drains
Kranji Pore Pressure Distribution at Mid-Slope (3m up)
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Total Pore Pressures [kPa]
E
l
e
v
a
t
i
o
n

[
m
]
1-day
2-day
3-day
4-day
5-day
Kranji Pore Pressure Distribution at 4.5 m Up-Slope
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Total Pore Pressures [kPa]
E
l
e
v
a
t
i
o
n

[
m
]
1-day
2-day
3-day
4-day
5-day
+ve suction
-ve pressure
Small changes of soil suction up to 1m depth at mid-slope (3m up slope)
No changes to soil suction at 4.5m up slope
Soil strength is little affected by Infiltration for rain at 20mm/day over 5 days
35
Seepage with 4m deep drains
GEONET 4m Dept h
Pon d le vel a t 104.6 m RL
GEONET
Concrete Liner
Recompacted Res idual Soil
0.5 m Sand Track
15 0 mm/ h Rainfal l
GWT


2
.
1
8
2
9
e
-
0
1
2




5
.
2
1
2
2
e
-
0
0
8




5
.
2
1
2
2
e
-
0
0
8



1
.4
0
0
9
e
-
0
1
1

3.0994e-004
Distance (m)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
36
FOS with 4m Deep Drains

1
.
8



1
.
8



2



2
.
2



2
.
4


1.269
D e s cr i p t i o n : P o n d W a t e r
U n i t W e i gh t : 9 . 8 0 7
D e s c r ip t io n : Re c o mp a c t e d Re s id u a l S o il
U n it W e ig h t : 1 8
C o he s io n : 3
P h i: 2 0
De s c r ip t io n : In s it u Re s id u a l S o il
Un it W e ig h t : 1 8
Co h e s io n : 1 0
Ph i: 2 7
G W T
GE ON ET 4m D epth
GEON E T
0 .5 m Sa nd Tr ack
1 5 0 m m /h R ai n fa l l
Dis tanc e (m )
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
37
Seepage with 8m Deep Drains
GEONET 8m Depth
Pon d le vel a t 104.6 m RL
GEONET
Concrete Li ner
Recompacted Res idual Soi l
GWT
0.5m Sand track
150 m m/h R ain fal l


7
.
0
1
6
0
e
-
0
0
8




7
.
0
1
5
8
e
-
0
0
8



7
.
6
6
9
9
e
-
0
1
2

3.1082e-004
Distance (m)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
38
FOS with 8m Deep Drains

1
.
7



1
.
8



1
.
9



2



2
.
2



2
.
2


1.617
D e s c r i p t io n : P o n d W a t e r
U n i t W e i g h t : 9 . 8 07
De s c r ip t io n : R ec o mp a c t e d Re s id u a l S o il
Un it W eig ht : 1 8
Co h e s io n : 5
Ph i: 2 1
De s c ri p t io n : In s it u Re s id u a l S o il
Un it W e ig h t : 1 8
Co h e s io n : 1 0
Ph i: 2 7
G W T
0 .5 m S a n d Tr a c k
G E O NE T 8 m D e p t h
1 50 mm / h Ra in f a ll
G E O NE T
Di stanc e ( m)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
39
Parametric Study of influence of Depth of Internal
Drains
Table 2: Influence of GEONET depth on GWT and FOS of repaired slope
GEONET Depth
(m)
0 1 2 4 8 12 15
GWT at Slope
Crest (m RL)
108.1 108.0 107.9 107.6 106.8 104.7 104.7
GWT at Mid-
Slope (m RL)
107.1 106.9 106.4 105.7 104.7 104.7 104.7
Seepage into
Slope (m
3
/s /m)
1.89
x 10
-8
1.72
x 10
-9
9.80
x 10
-12
2.18
x 10
-12
< 1.0
x 10
-12
< 1.0
x 10
-12
< 1.0
x 10
-12
Soil State in Slope Fully
Soak
Fully
Soak
Fully
Soak
Fully
Soak
Soften Comp-
acted
Comp-
acted
Drained cohesion
c (kPa)
3 3 3 3 5 10 10
Drained friction
angle, deg
20 20 20 20 21 22 22
Drained FS 0.923 0.968 1.137 1.269 1.617 1.780 1.808
40
Installation of 8m Deep Drains
Modified Mannings Eqn. for discharge of equivalent pipe
drain in-place of GEONET drain
Q = 1.137A R
H
0.66
S
0.5
(m
3
/s)
A=flow cross-section area (sq-m)
R
H
=hydraulic radius (m)
=R/2 for full flow
S=slope (m/m)
Actual Repair used 75mm diameter perforated drains
wrapped with geotextile filters at 1.5m centers to achieve
same discharge capacity as Geonet Sheet Drain
41
Install geotextile-wrapped 15m long, 75-mm
diameter pipe drains at 1.5 m intervals
42
GW discharge from internal geo-pipe drains has
performed well over last 10 years
43
Case 2 Failure at NUS Biz School
44
Infiltration Analysis
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
Acti ve groundwater head
Phase number: 6 Phase ti me: 5 day, Extreme groundwater head 126.01 m
m
108.000
109.000
110.000
111.000
112.000
113.000
114.000
115.000
116.000
117.000
118.000
119.000
120.000
121.000
122.000
123.000
124.000
125.000
126.000
127.000
Building No influx
Unsaturated Zone
Near Steady-State condition after 30
days of rain at 0.02 mm/day
Nature of Slip is fairly deep seated
Likely cause is combination of rain induced saturation leading to loss of
suction and rising GWT
Raised GWT
Estimated Slip Surface
Constant
H2
Constant
H1
Closed No Flow
Input flux = 20mm/day
45
Saturation of Slope by Infiltration
Takes more than 20 days of rain at 20 mm/day to raised
GWT sufficiently to cause deep seated failure
Initial GWT
Click for Video
46
Transient Flow in Slope by Infiltration
Takes more than 20 days of rain at 20 mm/day to raised
GWT sufficiently to cause deep seated failure
Initial GWT
Click for Video
47
Re-grade
slope
Soil Nails
Better drains
to minimize
infiltration
Long-term Repair Strategy
48
Conclusions
Landslides in the tropics are often triggered by rainfall
Empirical observations showed that a total rainfall of
about 100mm within a six day period (sustained at 15-
20 mm/day for 6 days) is sufficient for minor shallow
slips to occur in Singapore
To understand the nature of such failures; unsaturated
soil behavior must be adequately addressed
In unsaturated soils, the vadose zone above the GWT
is in a state of significant suction, which contributes to
the soil strength (like an apparent cohesion)
Prolonged infiltration will reduce or eliminate soil
suction and weaken the soils sufficiently to trigger slip
failure
49
Conclusions
Why shallow slip occurs is the result of unsaturated soil
creating a buffer with very low permeability that
prevents the saturation front from penetrating into
deeper soils; where GWT are greater than 10m deep
Infiltration analysis of the Kranji slope failure illustrates
the saturation of a shallow slip mass for a small slope
With the inclusion of a horizontal deep drains at the toe
of the slope; a large unsaturated soil zone can be
maintained despite sustained heavy rainfall, providing a
permanent safe slope over the last 10 years
For the case of NUS large slope failure; it is more likely
that sustained heavy rain during the period of Dec 05 to
Jan 06 caused the rise of GWT to saturate the slope
mass and trigger the deeper seated failure