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The Round Up
14 August 2009
Issue No. 155
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrants
team providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas for
warrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action Scoreboard
Aussie Market Action SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
CBA (CBAWZQ) Trading Sell – Overbought after result
SUN (SUNKZM) MINI Trading Buy – Value in insurance
SLF (SLFSZX) Self Funding Investment – property sector
Round Up Corner NEW – Self Funding Instalments Listing
Equities
Commodities
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
The US indices managed to holf their previous gains and the Dow added a further 36.6pts, despite slightly disappointing eco data, as it
seems to be general consensus that the US has moved past the worst this quarter.
Eco - Retail Sales slipped in July, -0.1% vs +0.8% exp'd, after being +0.8% previously, and Retail Sales ex.Autos was -0.6% vs +0.1%
exp'd. While Jobless data was mixed Initial Claims at 558k vs 545k forecast, from 554k, but Continuing Claims better at 6202k vs
6300k exp'd, down from 6343k previous. Also a better Business Inventories number in June -1.1% vs -0.9% forecast, after a 1.2% fall
in May.
Fins - Financials gained as the Libor-OIS spread narrowed to 25 basis points a level Alan Greenspan has previously considered
"normal". The sector also benefitted from reports that John Paulson's hedge fund, that had large returns on picking the failure of
subprime mortgages, had bought decent stakes in Bank of America (gained 6.7%), Regions Financial (up 7.9%) and Goldmans Sachs
(rose 0.4%).
Resources - Alcoa gained 5.8% after a stronger night from the commodites, boosted by the combination of Fed comments that the
recession is easing and unexpected increase in 2Q growth from France and Germany. Also saw a solid session from Schlumberger, up
2.3% and Halliburton, up 2.8%.
Retail - Wal-Mart gained 2.7% and was the biggest pts contributor on the Dow, adding 10.4pts, after it reported better-than-expected
2Q earnings, over shadowing a slump in official retail sales numbers.
Homebuilders - DR Horton lost 3.7% after it was downgraded by one broker to 'sell', from 'hold', after it's 50 percent rise over the last
month. KB Homes also fell 2.5% after being downgraded to 'underpeform by another shop.
Eco - The German and French economies unexpectedly grew in the second quarter bouncing back from previous GDP readings of -
3.5% from the Germans and -1.3% for the French, raising hopes that the worst of the economic crisis is coming to an end in the
eurozone. German GDP was +0.3% and French GDP was also up 0.3%. Forecasts were for German and French GDP to be down
0.2% and 0.3% respectively.
UK Banks - The sector was in demand with the positive sentiment helping. Barclays, HSBC, RBS and Lloyds were up between 2.8%
and 1.7%.
Euro Banks - The positive eco news also helped the Euro banks with UBS jumping 5.4%, Credit Suisse added 3.1%, BNP rose 1.2%,
SocGen was up 2.9%, Deutsche Bank climbed 2.5% and Banco Santander ended 0.6% higher.
Insurers - Prudential, up 10.7%, led the sector higher after increasing its interim dividend. Peers Aviva, Legal & General, Old Mutual
and Standard Life added 0.4% to 4.4%.
Beverages - Anheuser-Busch InBev sank 6% as a grim outlook offset strong 2Q results. Dutch brewer Heineken, which reports on
August 26, fell on the back of the poor outlook, losing 2.8% but Danish rival Carlsberg rose 1.1%.
Property - Takeover rumours helped the sector with talk that both Land Securities, up 4.9%, and British Land, up 2.5%, were being
looked at. The FTSE Real Estate index is up 33% in the past month and some market commentators are saying the companies may
actually take advantage of the recent gains and raise capital.
Resources Commentary
Miners - The sector tracked metal prices higher on increased demand hopes. BHP rose 2.25%, Rio added 4.2%, Anglo was up 3.1%,
Xstrata jumped 6% and Vedanta was 3.5% higher.
Energy - Oil and gas services firm Petrofac was a big blue-chip riser, up 8.9% as the stock was added to the MSCI UK index.
Elsewhere the majors were weaker, BG Group, BP and Shell were down between 0.3% to 1.1%.
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded up 105 pts or 2.44% to 4402. Open at 4336 with a low of 4328 and a high of 4409. Volume 29,164. Overnight the SPI
traded up 41pts to 4443.
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS
Upcoming Dividends
Source: IRESS
• CBA’s cash NPAT of A$4,415m was cA$150m ahead of RBS forecasts driven by a lower tax rate partially offset by
higher BDDs
• CBA declared a final dividend of A$1.15ps in line with guidance provided at their 3Q update. The total dividend of
A$2.28ps was 14% below FY08.
• The key positive surprise was the strength in revenue and, in particular, in fee income.
• The key negative was the benefit from the artificially low tax rate which is expected to normalise to c27% going
forward.
• The tier-1 capital position of 8.07% is looking a bit thin, though is likely to be addressed by the issue of hybrid
equity adding c24bp.
• The outlook was understandably cautious given headwinds still exist around credit growth and unemployment and
in the absence of similar fee growth to pcp.
• RBS valuation becomes A$41.88
• CBA set to go ex dividend on Monday, take a position today to caputre any profit taking that occurs post dividend
through CBAWZQ
Source: IRESS
Technicals
Source: IRESS
The chart above shows SLF over the past 18 months. After bottoming in March 2009, the ETF has developed a
sustained medium term uptrend with higher lows and current resistance at $7.50. A breakout of $7.50 would be a
bullish signal for a continued advance of the uptrend
SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Fund (SLF) seeks to closely track, before fees and expenses, the returns and
characteristics of the S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Trust Index. The approach is designed to provide a portfolio with low
portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and low costs.*
The Index comprises the leading listed property vehicles in Australia and represents diversified exposure to the Australian
listed property market. Exposure is diversified geographically across Australia’s major population centres and by sector
across a range of property types, including industrial, commercial, retail and hotel/tourism.*
*Source: IRESS
The breakdown of the S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Index is as follows:
SLF vs XJO (ex property trust) performance over the past 3 years
Source: IRESS
The chart above compares the returns from the S&P/ASX 200 – Ex-property and SLF. It can be seen that the listed
property sector has been a big underperformer compared to the rest of the market and this underperformance has
increased over the past month, despite property companies improving their balance sheets. Look for this
underperformance to reverse as the listed property companies de-risk and sell underperforming assets.
Using SLFSZX to gain exposure to listed property index
Take advantage of upside in the S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Index through an RBS Self Funding Instalment, SLFSZX.
Self Funding Instalments (SFIs) are a simple way to gain long term geared exposure to ASX-listed shares while receiving
many of the major benefits of share ownership including exposure to share price movements, dividends and franking
credits.
* Listed property has significantly underperformed the rest of the market, particularly in the most recent rally
* A major concern for the smaller property trusts has been refinancing debt, however banks are more likely to re-
finance the property trusts rather than taking the properties onto their own balance sheets and then having to
manage them
* Occupancy rates are still high, particularly in retail property which makes up a large proportion of the overall
SLF portfolio (predominantly WDC)
* Major property compmanies have undergone capital raisings to improve their balance sheets and de-risk
* SLF offers an attractive yield with any franking credits an added bonus
* SLF gives you exposure to the whole sector, which reduces the risk of being exposed to problems of any
individual company.
STRATEGY – Using SLFSZX and WDCKZR to gain exposure to listed property ex-WDC
For investors out there who are looking to gain exposure to a basket of listed property stocks without the 46% exposure to
Westfield Group (WDC), a strategy to consider would be long SLFSZX and then short WDC thorugh WDCKZR MINI
short. This strategy would give you upside exposure to all the stocks in SLF except WDC.
Date Code Company Y/E NPAT (Abs) Div EPS 2H div Long Short
(pre abs) Product Product
11 Aug COH Cochlear Limited Jun AUD 137.4 0.0 170.0c 241.0c 90.0c COHKZB COHKZQ
11 Aug JBH JB Hi Fi Jun AUD 92.3 0.0 37.0c 90.0c 22.0c JBHKZP
12 Aug BHP BHP Billiton Jun USD 10506 -4466 82.0c 188.8c 41.0c BHPKZD BHPKZR
12 Aug CBA Comm Bank Jun AUD 4104.4 0.0 228.0c 279.6c 106.0c CBAKZN CBAKZT
12 Aug CPU Computershare Jun USD 291.3 -6.1 23.0c 52.2c CPUKZB CPUKZP
13 Aug TLS Telstra Corporation Jun AUD 3979 0.0 28.0c 32.0c 14.0c TLSKZD TLSKZP
13 Aug CCL Coca Cola Amatil Dec AUD 193.5 0.0 19.0c 60.2c 43.0c CCLKZA CCLKZP
14 Aug LEI Leighton Holdings Jun AUD 627.0 -218.5 107.0c 215.3c 47.0c LEIKZI LEIKZP
JB Hi Fi (JBH)
• FY09 NPAT A$94.4m (+45.1%), on strong results in Australia & NZ. Loss on sale of Fixed Assets A$2.1m, v A$2.9m pcp.
• Final dividend of 29cps representing FY09 payout ratio of 50%. This is the new target, up from 40% previously. Will likely result
in 10cps uplifts to dividends going forward.
• RBS Research target price increased to $20 from $17.75
Computershare (CPU)
• Result was in line with RBS forecasts - normalised NPAT at US$290m (vs RBS at US$291m) and EPS at US52.1c (vs RBS at
US52.4c).
• Guidance for the FY10 is for EPS "to be similar to" FY09. Given management's usual conservatism at the start of the year, RBS
REsearch view this as positive
• Free cashflow was very strong at US$319m, up 5% on pcp although this was partly due to a halving of capex to US$23m.
• Interim dividend was flat at A11c (50% franked) rather than lifted by the usual 1c per half.
Contact
Equities Structured Products & Warrants
Toll free 1800 450 005 www.rbs.com.au/warrants
Trading Products Team
Ben Smoker 02 8259 2085 ben.smoker@rbs.com
Robbie Taylor 02 8259 2018 robbie.taylor@rbs.com
Ryan Corrigan 02 8259 2425 ryan.corrigan@rbs.com
Investment Products Team
Elizabeth Tian 02 8259 2017 elizabeth.tian@rbs.com
Tania Smyth 02 8259 2023 tania.smyth@rbs.com
Robert Deutsch 02 8259 2065 robert.deutsch@rbs.com
Mark Tisdell 02 8259 6951 mark.tisdell@rbs.com
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this report has been prepared by RBS Equities (Australia) Limited (“RBS”) (ABN 84 002 768 701) (AFS Licence No
240530) (“RBS Equities”) and has been taken from sources believed to be reliable. RBS Equities does not make representations that the information is
accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Any opinions, forecasts and estimates contained in this report are the views of RBS
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