Chapter Four

Sampling

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In 1936, the Literary Digest, a popular magazine of the time, selected a sample of voters in the US and asked them for whom they would vote in the upcoming presidential election Alf Landon (Republic) or Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat). The magazine editors obtained a sample of 2 millions individuals (about 20% returned the mailed postcards). On the basis of their findings, the editors predicted that Landon would win by a landslide. In fact, it was Roosevelt who won the landslide victory. What was wrong with the study?

What is a Sample?

Sampling is the process of selecting a number of individuals from a population, preferably in a way that the individuals are representative of the larger group from which they were selected. A sample is any group on which information is obtained.

Defining the Population

A population refers to all the members of a particular group. The first task in selecting a sample is to define the population of interest. The population of interest is usually a group of persons who possess certain characteristics. A target population is the actual population that the researcher would like to generalize. The accessible population would be the group that is available (realistic choice).

Representative vs. Non-representative

Two Main Types of Sampling

Sampling may be either random or non-random. Random sampling is a method of selecting subjects from a population by chance, so that biases do not alter the sample. The 4 most common ways of obtaining this type of sample are:

Simple Random Sampling Stratified Random Sampling Cluster Random Sampling Two Stage Random Sampling
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Simple Random Sampling

A Simple Random Sampling is a sample selected from a population in such a manner that all members have an equal chance of being selected. If the sample is large, it is the best method to obtain a sample representative of the population from which it has been selected. The larger the sample size, the more it is likely to represent the population. Any differences that occur are the result of chance rather than bias on the part of the researcher.

Part of a Table of Random Numbers

011723 912334 086401 059397 666278 051965 063045 560132 727009 000037 667899 042397 987650 091126 223456 379156 016265 022334 106590 004571 786326 345678 344870 121191 234345 045645 568799 021557 222167 233989 411148 080675 879809 036900 098000 356789 889567 258700 076567 030032 070070 102322 032762 109238 251287 454555 899030 037700 510379 033460 324588 088909 090076 657112 143188 209312 062281 934128 602345 011563 909876 500098 024358 050521 400567 015460 345121 675897 198789 909036 565451 987678 659080 237873 198905 046660 145678 342021 989657 223350 121348 079326 097451 342045

A table of random numbers- an extremely large list of numbers that has no order or pattern.
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Simple Random Sampling

011723 912334 086401 059397 666278 051965 063045 560132 727009 000037 667899 042397 987650 091126
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Use of table of random numbers to obtain a sample of 200 from a population of 2000. First, select a column of numbers (anywhere in the column, begin reading 4-digit numbers) Proceed to write down the first 200 numbers in the column that have a value of 2000 or less. Selected samples: 0117, 0864, 0593, 0519, 0630, Disadvantages of this method are: 1) the difficulty of performing the sampling and, 2) this method does not ensure that subgroups are present in the sampling in the same proportion as they are in a population.

Stratified Random Sampling

A Stratified Random Sampling is a sample selected so that certain characteristics are represented in the sample in the same proportion as they occur in the population. The term strata refers to sub-groups. The advantage of stratified random sampling is that it increases the likelihood of representation, especially if the sample size is small. It virtually ensures that any key characteristics of individuals in the population are included in the same proportions in the sample size. The disadvantage is that it requires still more effort on the part of the researcher.

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Selecting a Stratified Sample

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Cluster Random Sampling

A Cluster Random Sampling is a sample obtained by using groups as the sampling unit (cluster), rather than individuals. There are instances where it is not possible to select a sample of individuals from a population. This is considered more effective with large numbers of clusters. Advantages: more efficient and easier to implement in schools. Disadvantage: great chance of selecting a sample that is not representative of the population.
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Two-Stage Random Sampling

This method selects groups randomly and then chooses individuals randomly from these groups. This becomes a combination of a cluster random sampling with individual random sampling. Considered less time consuming but allows for a good representation of the groups at random.

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Random Sampling Methods

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Nonrandom Sampling Methods

There are 3 main types of nonrandom sampling methods. A Systematic Sample is a sample obtained by selecting every nth name in a population. A Convenience Sample is any group of individuals that is conveniently available to be studied. Are not considered representative of the population and should be avoided, if possible. A Purposive Sample is a sample selected because the individuals have special qualifications of some sort, or because of prior evidence of representation. Personal judgment is used for selection purposes. A major disadvantage is that the researchers judgment could be in error.

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Convenience Sampling

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Nonrandom Sampling Method

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A Review of Sampling Methods

Use of sampling methods to fundamental frequency study of Malay children between 7 and 12 years old. Target population: all primary school Malay children in PJ. Feasible sample size: 300

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A Review of Sampling Methods

(1) Simple Random Sampling

Identify all the primary schools Malay children in PJ. Assign each student a number, then use the table of random numbers to select a sample of 300. Time consuming to identify every student in every school.

(2) Cluster Random Sampling

Identify the schools with Malay children. Assign each of the schools a number and randomly select a few schools (e.g. 10) and include all the students in each school. More feasible than simple random sampling.
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A Review of Sampling Methods

(3) Stratified Random Sampling

Obtain the number of males and females in all the schools and determine the ratio (e.g. 60% females, 40%males). Determine the number, females (180), males (120). Difficulty: need to know the proportions in each strata/subgroup of the population .

(4) Two-Stage Random Sampling

Randomly select 20 schools from the accessible population of schools, and randomly select 15 students from each school. More feasible than simple random sampling and more representative than cluster sampling.

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A Review of Sampling Methods

(5) Convenience Sampling

Select all students in 5 schools that is accessible. May not generalize the result.

(6) Purposive Sampling

Select students with the best, middle and poorest result from a number of schools (e.g. 10). May not generalize the result.

(7) Systematic Sampling

Select every 40th student from an alphabetically list from each age group for each school. Inconvenient as simple random sampling, likely to result in a ethnic biased sample
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Sample Size

The question remains as to what constitutes an adequate sample size. Samples should be as large as a researcher can obtain with a reasonable expenditure of time and energy. The recommended minimum number of subjects are as follows for the following types of studies: 100 for a Descriptive Study 50 for a Correlational Study (association among the variable) 30 in each group for Experimental (cause-effect) and Causal-Comparative Study (causes of differences)
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External Validity: Generalizing from a Sample

The whole notion of science is built on generalizing. External validity refers to the extent that the results of a study can be generalized from a sample to a population. Population generalizability is the degree to which a sample represents the population of interest.

Obtaining a representative sample becomes very important

Ecological generalizability refers to the degree to which the results of a study can be extended to other conditions or settings.
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Population as Opposed to Ecological Generalizing

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External Validity: Generalizing from a Sample

Ecological generalizability:

The study of the fundamental frequency of Malay children at the urban area may not be applied to Malay children at the rural area. The study of the fundamental frequency of Malay children KL/PJ area may not be applied to Malay children in southern/northern West Malaysia, East Malaysia. The results of the fundamental frequency of Malay children may not be applied to Chinese and Indian children.

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In 1936, the Literary Digest, a popular magazine of the time, selected a sample of voters in the US and asked them for whom they would vote in the upcoming presidential election Alf Landon (Republic) or Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat). The magazine editors obtained a sample of 2 millions individuals (about 20% returned the mailed postcards). On the basis of their findings, the editors predicted that Landon would win by a landslide. In fact, it was Roosevelt who won the landslide victory. What was wrong with the study?
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The problem is not with the size of the sample. The most frequent explanations have been that the data were collected too far ahead of the election and that a lot of people changed their minds and/or the sample of voters was heavily biased in favor of the more affluent candidate, and/or that the 20% return rate introduced a major bias. The sample is not representative.

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