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Main topics
Inflation
Growth UMP Exit
2
12
10.5
YoY % 9
6
2nd supply shock (fresh food)
6.1 4.7
0
May 11 Sep 12 Nov 12 Sep 11 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 May 12
Mar 13
Nov 11
Mar 11
Mar 12
May 13
Jul 11
Jul 12
CPI
Source: IBGE
Jul 13
Jan 13
Nov 12
Dec 12
15 %
10
Feb 13
Mar 13
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Policy rate
Source: BCB/BM&F
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jul 11
Apr 13
Inflation is receding
8 7 6 YoY % 5 4 3 Jun 13 6.7 Aug 13 6.1 Dec 13 5.8
2 Nov 13
Jan 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 May 13 Dec 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 Oct 13 Jul 13
CPI
Source: IBGE / BCB (Focus)
4.5
4.0 Apr 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Apr 12 Feb 11 Apr 13
Aug 13
Jun 12
Aug 12
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Jun 13
IPC-C1
IPC-Fipe
Chained series of IPC-10, IPC-M and IPC-Br; Chained series of IPC-Fipe weekly data
Dec 13
Jun 11
Oct 12
Oct 13
Oct 11
16
14
12
YoY % 10
8
6 4 2 0
Dec 07
Dec 99
Dec 00
Dec 01
Dec 02
Dec 03
Dec 04
Dec 05
Dec 06
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
CPI
Source: IBGE / BCB
Dec 14
1.6 1.5
1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Colombia Turkey China Brazil South Korea Japan South Africa Germany UK US Australia France Chile Canada Poland Euro Area Spain -0.1 Russia -0.3 Italy -0.3 Mexico -0.7
2 -1 0
2.2 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
Source: Bloomberg
2014
7.8 5.6 China India South Korea* World Australia* Russia Mexico Brazil South Africa US Canada UK Germany Japan Euro Area France Italy Spain 7.7 6.3 3.9 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.0 0 5 10
9
3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.3
Stronger investment
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
5.0 4.7 3.6
4.0
3.0 QoQ S.A (%) 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.4 -1.9
1.5
-2.4
1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 2Q 13
Source: IBGE
10
16.1 7.7 Aug 10 Aug 11 Feb 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 4.2 2.4 1.8 Nov 12 Aug 12 Aug 13 11 Feb 10 Feb 12 Feb 13
5.8% (YoY)
Retail Sales
14 12 MoM % sa 10 8 6 4
Unemployment Rate
May 12
Feb 13
Aug 05
Aug 02
Aug 03
Aug 04
Aug 06
Aug 07
Aug 08
Aug 09
Aug 10
Aug 12
Aug 13
Aug 11
Employment
Real Income
Real Payroll
Source: BCB/IBGE
May 13
million tons
160.1
161.9
2011
2012
2013*
Source: IBGE
12
Russian
Italy United States Turkey Japan Canada Mexico
India
United States Australia United Kingdom
76
51 48 47
-100
-50
14
80%
82.1
20%
0%
Public-owned Private-owned Foreign-controlled Total
Jul 13
Domestic
Source: BCB
External
15
250 200 150 100 50 0 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013*
90 50 10 -30 -70
-81.8
-110 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013*
*Aug 2013
as of Oct 1st
Source: BCB
16
Brazil
*IIF forecast.
15
25
2012
35
2013*
45
55
5
*IIF forecast.
10
15
20
25
30
2012
2013*
17
* Brazil data includes intercompany debt transactions and domestic debt in hands of foreign investors
20
40
60
80
18
2011
226.9 124.0 103.3 96.1 66.7 65.8 64.0 52.9 51.1 41.4 40.9 40.4 34.3 USA
2012
146.7 119.7 72.5 65.3 62.5 58.9 54.4 48.5 47.2 44.1 39.6 27.3 26.4
China
Belgium Hong Kong UK Singapore Brazil Germany Russian Ireland Spain Australia Switzerland France Saudi Arabia 0
China
Belgium Hong Kong Brazil Australia Singapore Russian UK Canada France Germany Italy India Spain
China
Hong Kong Brazil UK France Singapore Australia Canada Russian Ireland India Chile Luxembourg Belgium 0
30.6
29.2 50 100 150 200
31.6
29.5 0 50 100 150 200
22.6
19.3 50 100 150 19
Source: UNCTAD
120.3
111.0 82.5
Colombia
Peru Chile India South Africa Turkey
* June 2013
-4.0
-5.1 -6.5 -6.6
-8 -6 -4 -2 0
20
Source: UNCTAD
Source: BCB
30
35
40
Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13
Capital flows
Measures (weekly auctions during 2013): FX interest rate swap auctions: USD2 billion FX Repo: USD1 billion
Russian Ruble South African Rand Turkish Lira Polish Zloty Mexican Peso Czech Koruna Indian Rupee -3.7
Real 8.6 New Zealand Dollar Australian Dollar Sterling pound 6.4 4.2 4.1 3.5 2.6
11.1 Italy Portugal Ireland -3.0 -4.4 -5.2 -5.9 -6.3 -7.4 -7.9 -9.3 5.6 3.8
-5.5
-6.7 -7.5 -7.8 -9.1
Indian Rupee South African Rand Russian Ruble Poland Zloty Swiss Franc Swedish Krona Chilean Peso Canadian Dollar
Colombia
Spain Peru France Japan Belgium Mexico Turkey United Kingdom Chile Russia
2.6
2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.0 -0.2 -1.9
-11.4
-11.8 -12.5 -16.9 -18.0 -18.6 -21.9 -24.4 -40 -20 0 20
Euro
Norwegian Krone Colombian peso
Brazilian Real -15.9 Australian Dollar-16.5 Indonesian Rupiah -17.9 -25 -15
* From Aug 22 through Oct 2.
Germany
Brazil China South Africa
Source: BCB
1/ The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index tracks the performance of a basket of ten leading global currencies versus the U.S. Dollar (JPY, MXN, AUD, GBP, CAD, SGD, CHF, CNH, KRW and EUR).
23
24
Glossary
BCB BM&F CAD EME FDI FGV Focus IBGE Central Bank of Brazil Brazilian Exchange Company Current Account Deficit Emerging countries Foreign Direct Investment Getlio Vargas Foundation Brazilian Market Survey sponsored by BCB Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
IMF
UMP UNCTAD
25