Ch.

5 Reliability Factors

Chapter 5

RELIABILITY FACTORS

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

5.1 Reliability Function

Reliability function, R(t) may be expressed as

where F(t) is the probability of system failure by time t, and t is a random variable with a density function f(t).

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Assuming that the time variable is described by an exponential density function, the reliability function is transformed to *)
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where e is the natural logarithm base, t is the time of interest, and is the mean life.
*) This is equivalent to making the assumption that the number of failures occurring during a time interval are Poisson distributed. The two distribution are the same, except that the exponential distribution is continuous (time) and the Poisson distribution is discrete (number of failures).
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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Mean life refers to average lifetimes of all items under consideration and is equal to Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) for the exponential time density function (t). The reciprocal of MTBF expresses the instantaneous failure rate (). Therefore, the reliability function with an exponential time density can also be expressed as:

Assuming an exponential density function for the time variable best represent a scenario where the failure is essentially constant over the useful system operating life time. This is frequently assumed during the course of reliability analysis and predictions. While variable failure rates are experienced during the infant mortality and wear-out periods of a system life cycle, the constant failure rate assumption often work well after the system attains a steady state of operation. Please see the next figure!
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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Decreasing failure rate

Increasing failure rate

Fig. 1 Three region in bathtub curve

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

5.2. Failure rate and MTBF

Failure rate and MTBF are the most commonly used reliability measures. Failure rate, simply refers to the frequency of failures, or rate at which failures occur over a unit interval of time. It may be expressed in terms of number of failures per hour or per million hours, or of percent failures per 1000 hours. Failure rate , is defined as

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Example 1:
Suppose 10 units of product were tested under specified operating conditions where the test time is 600 hours, and assume that failed units are not repaired. Failures occur as follows: Unit 1 failed after 75 jam Unit 4 failed after 325 jam Unit 2 failed after 125 jam Unit 5 failed after 525 jam Unit 3 failed after 130 jam Five units successfully completed the test cycle. Solution: Failure rate (), in number failures per hour, can be expressed as

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Example 2:
Consider a given system with operating cycle as shown in the following figure. The total operating time in this case is 152 hours and the system fails a total of six times as indicated. What is the failure rate of the system?
Down Time
2.1 hr 7.1 hr 4.2 hr 1.8 hr 3.5 hr 8.3 hr

Maintenance Actions

24.2 hr

7.1 hr

27.4 hr

35.3 hr

6.3 hr

46.7 hr

5.0 hr

Operating Time System Operational Cycle 169 Hours Fig. 2 Example of system operation
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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Solution: The failure rate per hours is

Further, assuming an exponential time density function, the system mean life or the MTBF is

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Example 3:
A system accumulates 32 failures over a 10,000 hours operating time period. What is the system failure rate, MTBF, and reliability?

Solution:
Using the formulas given previously, we have
Time of Observation, t (hours) 0 50 100 150 200 250 500 1000
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Reliability (%) 100.00 85.21 72.62 61.88 52.73 44.93 20.19 4.08
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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

5.3 Series, Parallel and Combined Network

The concept of the reliability and failures rates can be applied at the component level to compute reliability measures at the system level. Components within a system, depending upon their functionality, can be assumed to conform to a series network, parallel network, or a combination of both. This network becomes more understandable in a reliability block diagram. Network with all components in series are the simplest to analyze and the combination networks are the most difficult to analyze.
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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Seri Network
Component 1 Component 2 Component n

The system-level failures rate, s is

The system-level MTBF is

System Reliability, Rs

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Parallel Network
Component 1 Component 2

Component n

The system reliability can be expresses as

If all components have the same reliability of R, then the system-level reliability becomes

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Combination Network
Komponen a Komponen b Komponen c Komponen d Komponen e Komponen f Komponen g

The system-level reliability for the figure above is

where

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Example 4:
A system consists of 3 sub-assemblies. The individual sub-assembly reliability are R1 = 97 %, R2 = 89 %, R3 = 92 %.

What is the overall system reliability if the sub-assembly are connected (a) in series and (b) parallels?

Solution: (a)

(b)

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Example 5:
Determine the reliability of the network bellow with given individual reliability values
Component B Component E Component A Component C Component D Component F Component G

RA = 0,90 RB = 0,80 RC = 0,70 RD = 0,90

Component A

RE = 0,80 RF = 0,80 RG = 0,90

Solution:
The sub system reliability are.

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So, the system-level reliability is 80,63 %

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5.4. Probability of Survival

The probability of system survival or mission success (Ps) may be defined as the ratio of number of successful trials or missions to the total number of trials, including those that failed or were aborted. Ps may also be expressed as the probability of ZERO system failures during a certain time interval t, or

where e-t is the first term in a Poisson expansion series and represents the probability of ZERO failures or aborts during the time interval, t. A constant failure rate is assumed in the above equation. Extending the discussion to an operational system with a backup, the applicable equations is

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Example 6: A system with a failure rate of 0.005 failures/hours is called upon for a mission involving 5 hours of operation. What is the probability of mission success? Is this the same as system reliability? Solution:
Using the equations for the probability of survival.

The system reliability is

Thus, the probability of survival is the same as system reliability

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Example 7: Assume that a system has a reliability of 0.778, and that the value of t = 0,25. Also, the system is supported by two identical backups. Determine the probability of system survival or mission! Solution: By using the equation for the probability of survival, we have:

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

5.5. Reliability Growth Curves

New systems and products often display a lower reliability during the early development phases. System reliability can be improved by analyzing and fixing some of the failures modes experienced. This concept is referred to as Reliability Growth and was formally analyzed for the first time in the mid-1960s by James T. Duane. Duane derived an empirical relationship based upon the MTBF improvement observed with respect to a range of aircraft components. The concept of Reliability Growth is very relevant to maintainability analysis and can contribute to the overall effectiveness of the system support infrastructure. It impact prediction of the frequency and types of system failures during the early design and development phases.

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

The Reliability Growth curve in the Duane model can be expressed as.

where MTBFc and MTBFs are the cumulative and starting MTBF, T is total test or operating time, and is the slope of the growth curve. The slope, , indicates the effectiveness of the reliability growth program and has a strong correlation with the intensity R&D effort of a company. A given reliability growth curve can also be used to assess the test and evaluation time required to attain a target system reliability. The following figure shows a typical reliability growth curve.

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Fig. 3 A typical reliability growth curve

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Ch. 5 Reliability Factors

Exercise Problems:
1. Ten units are tested to failure. Failures occur after 20, 40, 62, 78, 94, 112, 132, 142, 145, and 175 hours. What is the unit failure rate? 2. Twelve units are tested for 100 hours. Failed units are not repaired. Failures occur after 6, 14, 22, 48, 80, and 96 jam. What is the unit failure rate? 3. A system with an overall system level MTBF equal to 120 hours is to be operated for 2.6 hours. What is the system reliability? 4. If a system has reliability equal to 0.80 is to be operated continuously for a time of 1.5 hours, what is the expected failure rate? 5. Over period of 10 years, a system successfully completes 985 mission and experience only 15 aborts. What is the probability of mission success?

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REFERENCES Benjamin S. Blanchard, Denish Verma, Elmer L. Peterson, Maintainability: A key to effective serviceability and maintenance management, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1995.

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