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INDIA RESEARCH
FC SHEET INDUSTRY
ABHILASHA SATALE
6633 8900 EXT. 152
abhilasha.satale@technogroup.co.in
FC SHEET INDUSTRY
RAMCO INDUSTRIES LTD.
Recommendation
CMP
Target Price
Equity
Mkt Cap
BUY
`67
`85
`86.7cr
`585cr
BUY
`275
`336
`14.82cr
`407.55cr
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Rising disposable income in the hands of rural people and rising warehousing demand is
major drivers Fibre Cement (FC) Sheet demand. Governments increasing thrust on rural
housing, rising MSPs of crops are likely to fuel demand growth of 4mnt FC sheet industry
at more than 10% CAGR over the medium term. Oligopoly structure of the industry
retains 60% of the market share in the hands of 4 players giving pricing power. Capacity
additions foreseen in the industry over the medium term are unlikely to create a glut.
Therefore, we recommend BUY on Everest Industries, Ramco Industries, Hyderabad
Industries and Visaka Industries.
FC SHEET
INVESTMENT RATIONALE
GOVERNMENTS THRUST ON RURAL HOUSING
GOIs focus on rural housing to be another factor, which will drive FC sheet
demand. Through different social schemes like Bharat Nirman, Indira Aawas Yojana
and NREGA government is boosting support to housing development in rural
market. Allocation towards IAY and NREGA has increased at a CAGR of 29% and
37% over 2006-2010 respectively. Total houses to be build under IAY is expected
to be around 40lakh in 2010-11. Government intends to build 150lakh houses in
11th Five Year Plan.
NREGA is anticipated to provide employment to around 10.9cr people in 201011E. Average wage per person per day has gone up from `65 in 2006-07 to `89 in
2010-11E.
Rising disposable income through increased primary product prices and different
government initiatives to provide dwelling and employment to give more pricing
power in the hands of rural people. Current penetration of FC sheet is low in the
country whereas, increasing income in the hands of rural consumers to improve
demand for FC sheets going forward. We expect FC sheet demand to grow at 1012% in the medium term. Current consumption in the country is around 40lakh
tones for FC sheets.
Allocation under schemes (`
`Cr)
100%
80%
2775
60%
960
40%
20%
4000
0%
2005-06
11300
12000
2920
1200
3000
4040
1800
2600
2006-07
2007-08
30000
39100
40100
5400
2350
0
8800
2350
0
10000
2984
0
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
NREGA Success
4500000
12
4000000
10
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
10.89
10.01
6.48
65
3.78
100
89
84
75
4.51
3.39
4.34
20
1000000
0
2006-07
500000
60
40
2.1
1500000
80
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
FC SHEET
FC Sheet Price (`
`/tonne)
10000
8000
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
9000
8349
9000
6812
7533
7064
6212
7000
6000
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
5000
10.9%
10.0%
8.9%
8%
31.4
11%
8.7%
7.6%
36.8
33.8
40
44
13%
48.8
9%
7%
5%
Source : Industry
238000
192000
165000
90000
64500
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
FC SHEET
THATCHET
CORRUGATED GALV.
IRON SHEETS
ALUMINIUM SHEETS
FC SHEET
2-3years
NA
Oct-15
NA
50
Maintenace
Nil
Frequent
3-5yers
Nil
Nil
Fire rating
Poor
Retardant
Poor
Poor
Retardant
Thermal insulation
Good
Good
Poor
Poor
Good
Wind Resistance
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Good
Noise level
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Good
Acoustic rating
NA
Poor
Poor
Poor
Good
Condensation
Cost
Low
Low
High
High
Low
Very Low
Low
High
Very High
Low
FC SHEET
KEY RISKS
Dependency on imported raw material
Asbestos fibre is important raw material for FC sheet manufacturing contributing
around 30% of total cost. India doesnt have any procurable reserves of chrysotile
fibre. Therefore, we import 100% of our requirement from major four players.
Imported raw material leaves industry vulnerable to forex risks and dependency
on four players doesnt give bargaining power.
PRODUCT NAME
HYDERABAD INDUSTRIES
EVEREST INDUSTRIES
VISAKA INDUSTRIES
RAMCO INDUSTRIES
BUILDING PRODUCTS
854500
710000
652000
534000
80.55
81
78.64
62
19.4
16.1
14.8
12.1
STEEL BUILDING
BOARDS
CALCIUM SILICATE
BOARD
460000
30000
60000
40000
2.9
17
2.41
3.97
CEMENT CLINKERS
GRINDING
100000
1816
216000
3.87
18.71
4.28
Capacity (MT)
Contibution to revenue (%)
Market share (%)
PRODUCT NAME
Capacity (MT)
Contibution to revenue (%)
PRODUCT NAME
AACB
Capacity (MT)
Contibution to revenue (%)
PRODUCT NAME
THERMAL INSULATION
6000
43296
4.7
12.77
Capacity (MT)
Contibution to revenue (%)
PEER COMPARISON
(` mn)
EVEREST
HYDERABAD
RAMCO
VISAKA
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
5520.10
6809.00
9886.00
11308.00
6234.00
7036.90
8522.65
9963.31
4528.70
5286.10
6284.80
7685.09
5779.80
5981.30
7226.20
7805.10
EBITDA
537.30
684.00
1092.48
1272.35
928.30
1548.40
1639.53
1949.02
1031.50
1195.40
1493.82
1771.36
903.90
1171.60
1328.47
1402.07
Net Profit
144.50
283.80
523.24
623.25
440.90
870.20
920.39
1096.93
356.50
535.90
642.15
854.88
359.40
572.10
684.65
729.29
Equity
148.00
148.00
148.00
148.00
74.60
74.60
74.60
74.60
43.30
86.70
86.70
86.70
158.80
158.80
158.80
158.80
Debt
1743.00
1281.80
1290.00
1190.00
803.20
698.40
740.00
860.00
2592.00
2476.60
3250.00
2930.00
1687.50
1620.30
1415.50
1415.50
9.76
19.18
35.35
42.11
59.10
116.65
123.38
147.04
82.33
6.18
7.41
9.86
22.63
36.03
43.11
45.92
98.88
109.80
134.40
171.87
218.85
287.50
380.19
485.51
604.41
34.98
41.15
48.59
109.26
133.32
167.05
205.52
21%
17%
19%
17%
19%
22%
34%
3%
21%
8%
Sales
EPS
BVPS
86%
23%
47%
15%
30%
13%
PAT growth
84%
110%
84%
19%
213%
97%
6%
19%
40%
50%
20%
33%
369%
59%
20%
7%
EBITDA margins
10%
10%
11%
12%
15%
22%
19%
20%
23%
23%
24%
23%
16%
20%
18%
18%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
12%
11%
11%
8%
10%
10%
11%
6%
10%
9%
9%
PAT margins
Tax rates
4%
29%
29%
29%
33%
7%
6%
33%
29%
29%
29%
29%
32%
33%
33%
33%
ROE %
10%
17%
26%
25%
27%
41%
32%
30%
14%
18%
18%
20%
21%
27%
26%
22%
ROCE %
10%
12%
19%
19%
21%
32%
27%
26%
12%
14%
15%
16%
14%
17%
17%
34%
DER
1.15
0.74
0.58
0.42
0.44
0.28
0.23
0.21
0.93
0.75
0.85
0.64
0.90
0.69
0.48
0.40
VALUATIONS
CMP
260.00
Mcap
PER (x)
639.00
3848.00
72.00
4766.94
163.00
6242.40
2588.44
26.63
13.56
7.35
6.17
10.81
5.48
5.18
4.35
0.87
11.65
9.72
7.30
7.20
4.52
3.78
3.55
P/BV
2.63
2.37
1.93
1.51
2.92
2.22
1.68
1.32
0.12
2.06
1.75
1.48
1.49
1.22
0.98
0.79
EV / EBITDA (x)
9.16
7.20
4.51
3.87
5.26
3.16
2.98
2.51
6.21
5.36
4.29
3.61
4.10
3.16
2.79
2.64
Mcap / sales
FC SHEET
0.57
0.68
1.18
0.43
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
RURAL BOOM TO BENEFIT
Rising disposable income in the hands of rural consumer will drive asbestos
cement roofing sheet demand in the country. Rising food deficit, increasing prices
and rising MSPs are providing farmers with additional disposable income. Even
today only 20% of rural roofs are of FC Sheet thus, stores lot of potential for
replacement demand against thatched and red tiles roofs.
Food inflation is at the highest level today at 16% showing supply side constraints.
Good prices world over sky-rocketed last year and are not showing signs of
softening. This has increased MSPs (Minimum Support Prices) for all the
commodities leaving more disposable income in the hands of farmers. 60% of the
population, which drives the consumption of the economy gaining money power,
would drive the demand for rural products such as FC sheets. We expect food
inflation is not a short-term cause to deal with. Rising consumption to settle food
prices at higher level benefiting that 60% of the population.
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (MSP)
Maize
Moong
Barley
Urad
Gram
Sugarcane
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2002-03
2001-02
1999-00
1990-91
3000
2000
1000
0
Arhar
VALUATION
We feel FC sheet industry to be major beneficiary of rural boom and rise in
warehousing demand. Inspite of huge potential the companies under this sector
are under owned by investors. This is expected to be reason for re-rating of the
entire sector. On an average we expect the profitability of the sector companies
to grow at a CAGR of 20% over the next two years. However, the stocks are still
available at much lower level of P/E of around 6-7x forward.
Our favorite stock in the spectrum is Ramco Industries which will be
benefited from its aggressive expansion plans in the domestic as well as
Srilankan Markets. Everst is also preferred bet in the spectrum due to
its exposure to building solutions business which store huge business
opportunity in itself. Other than these we also recommend BUY on
Hyderabad Industries being a leader and still available cheap and
Visaka Industries.
(` mn)
PEER COMPARISON
PRICE (`)
MKT. CAP
FY11
FY12
Hyderabad Industries
643
4815
8445.3
9935.4
Ramco
72
5850
6304.8
7715.1
654
878
Everest
260
3857
9576
10968
523
Visaka
163
2591
7226.2
7805.1
684.6
FC SHEET
NET SALES
PAT
FY11
EPS
EV/EBIDTA
ROE(%)
FY11
FY12
FY11
FY12
FY11
FY12
FY11
FY12
147.0
5.2
4.3
3.0
2.5
32.50%
30.3%
7.5
10.1
9.5
7.1
4.2
3.6
18.30%
24%
623
35.4
42.1
7.4
6.2
4.5
3.9
26.30%
24.5%
729.3
43.1
45.9
3.8
3.5
2.8
2.6
25.80%
22.3%
FY12
P/E
COMPANY NOTE
BUY
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
CMP
`67
73/34
86.70
Face Value
`1
Mkt. Capitalization
`585cr
47238
BSE SENSEX
18257
NSE - NIFTY
5479
NSE Code
RAMCOIND
Bloomberg Code
RAMCO IN
BSE Code
532369
50.54%
Indian Institutions
7.70%
41.76%
6-MTS
YTD
1-YR
7%
20%
19%
Nifty
13%
11%
22%
Sensex
13%
11%
20%
RAMCO
(` mn)
BRIEF FINANCIALS
Net Sales
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Sales growth
18.7%
16.7%
EBITDA
708.7
PAT
356.5
535.9
654.0
878.0
EPS
82.3
6.2
7.5
10.1
0.9
11.6
9.5
7.1
RONW (%)
13.6%
17.7%
18.3%
24.0%
EV/EBITDA
6.2
5.4
4.2
3.6
P/E (x)
ABHILASHA SATALE
66338900 EXT. 152
abhilasha.satale@technogroup.co.in
FC SHEET
19.3%
22.4%
FINANCIALS
(` mn)
P & L A/c
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Gross Sales
3,760.9
4,084.1
4,763.8
5,627.5
6,766.3
8,189.1
Excise Duty
262.7
269.9
235.1
341.4
368.0
415.0
3,498.2
3,814.2
4,528.7
5,286.1
6,398.3
7,774.1
17.9%
9.0%
18.7%
16.7%
21.0%
21.5%
Net Sales
% Change
Raw Materials
1,767.2
2,023.3
2,478.6
2,922.2
3,087.7
3,746.4
Stock Adjustments
(71.9)
(34.6)
(99.2)
(118.7)
Employee Expenses
188.8
198.4
208.9
261.7
328.0
344.0
98.7
96.7
110.8
239.0
156.5
180.0
61.6
97.1
129.2
237.0
271.5
304.8
339.9
430.6
520.0
688.8
561.5
622.1
718.9
878.9
1,103.0
3.9
32.3
29.6
37.3
54.8
150.0
250.0
6.6
11.5
27.5
3,009.1
3,258.9
3,820.0
4,417.8
5,031.8
6,143.4
Operating Profit
489.1
555.3
708.7
868.3
1,366.5
1,630.7
% Change
-15.6%
13.5%
27.6%
22.5%
57.4%
19.3%
292.4
294.2
322.8
327.1
79.0
88.0
2.0
5.2
783.5
854.7
1,031.5
1,195.4
1,445.5
1,718.7
6.5%
9.1%
20.7%
15.9%
20.9%
18.9%
164.9
194.9
252.6
212.2
265.6
250.8
7.8
8.5
8.7
7.8
610.8
651.3
770.2
975.4
1,179.9
1,467.9
Depreciation
277.8
282.0
306.6
289.5
350.0
380.0
EBIT
505.7
572.7
724.9
905.9
1,095.5
1,338.7
PBT
333.0
369.3
463.6
685.9
829.9
1,087.9
% Change
-29.9%
10.9%
25.5%
48.0%
21.0%
31.1%
Current Tax
77.0
69.5
130.0
180.0
240.9
315.9
Deferred Tax
9.5
41.2
(27.5)
(30.0)
(49.2)
(64.5)
3.3
3.8
4.6
1.0
243.2
254.8
356.5
535.9
638.2
835.6
% Change
-26.5%
4.8%
39.9%
50.3%
19.1%
30.9%
Minority Interest
Net Profit After Minority Interest
Extra Ordinary Items
1.4
(0.4)
241.8
255.2
356.5
535.9
638.2
835.6
1.4
(0.4)
(7.7)
Adjusted PAT
241.8
255.2
356.5
543.6
638.2
835.6
% Change
-26.7%
5.5%
39.7%
52.5%
17.4%
30.9%
65.0
65.0
65.0
73.6
87.6
114.8
178.2
189.8
291.5
462.3
550.5
720.8
Dividend - Equity
Preference
Retained Earnings
FC SHEET
10
(` mn)
BALANCE SHEET
Share Capital - Equity
Preference
Reserves & Surplus
Revaluation Reserve
Others
Minority Interest
Secured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Unsecured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Total Liabilities
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
43.3
43.3
43.3
86.7
86.7
86.7
1.0
2,207.3
2,416.1
2,731.5
3,203.7
3,754.2
4,475.1
1,621.8
2,331.6
1,886.5
1,966.2
2,116.0
1,900.0
633.3
308.9
705.5
510.4
680.0
740.0
280.2
329.2
295.8
263.9
220.0
120.0
4,785.9
5,429.1
5,662.6
6,030.9
6,856.9
7,322.8
Gross Block
3,086.9
3,885.9
4,056.2
4,173.3
4,460.0
4,610.0
1,126.9
1,407.2
1,713.2
1,989.6
2,339.6
2,719.6
Net Block
1,960.0
2,478.7
2,343.0
2,183.7
2,120.4
1,890.4
Capital WIP
50.9
15.9
8.3
249.8
1,928.3
1,928.3
2,026.2
2,026.3
2,680.0
2,890.0
592.9
683.7
1,097.1
1,292.9
1,440.0
1,680.0
Debtors
239.9
273.0
290.9
293.3
460.0
610.0
Advances
353.3
376.3
485.7
592.6
890.0
1,010.0
1,186.1
1,333.0
1,873.7
2,178.8
2,790.0
3,300.0
292.1
364.3
561.3
542.4
620.0
760.0
105.7
120.5
178.7
242.5
326.0
353.0
788.3
848.2
1,133.7
1,393.9
1,844.0
2,187.0
Lease Adjustments
Investments
Current assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories
58.4
150.2
149.4
177.2
201.5
335.4
7.8
2.0
11.0
20.0
4,785.9
5,429.1
5,662.6
6,030.9
6,856.9
7,322.8
Total Assets
FC SHEET
11
EXPENSE ANALYSIS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
50.5%
53.0%
54.7%
55.3%
48.3%
48.2%
48.5%
52.1%
52.5%
53.0%
48.3%
48.2%
6.8%
7.1%
6.7%
6.7%
6.7%
6.7%
5.4%
5.2%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
2.8%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
19.7%
14.7%
13.7%
13.7%
13.7%
13.7%
1.1%
1.1%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
MARGIN ANALYSIS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Operating Margin(%)
14.0%
14.6%
15.6%
16.4%
21.4%
21.0%
EBITDA Margin(%)
22.4%
22.4%
22.8%
22.6%
22.6%
22.1%
PBDT Margin(%)
17.5%
17.1%
17.0%
18.5%
18.4%
18.9%
EBIT Margin(%)
14.5%
15.0%
16.0%
17.1%
17.1%
17.2%
PBT Margin(%)
9.5%
9.7%
10.2%
13.0%
13.0%
14.0%
PAT Margin(%)
7.0%
6.7%
7.9%
10.1%
10.0%
10.7%
11.9%
12.0%
13.6%
14.3%
14.1%
14.0%
ANALYSIS INPUTS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
500.3
543.9
604.4
35.0
41.1
48.5
DPS
15.0
15.0
15.0
0.8
1.0
1.3
EPS
56.2
58.8
82.3
6.2
7.4
9.6
Adjusted EPS
55.8
58.9
82.3
6.3
7.4
9.6
120.3
124.0
153.1
9.5
11.4
14.0
2.8%
3.2%
3.9%
3.7%
3.8%
4.4%
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.7
24.1%
19.8%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
3.1
3.1
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.3
1.0
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
3.6
3.4
4.3
11.2%
10.8%
13.6%
17.7%
17.9%
19.9%
26.7%
25.5%
18.2%
13.7%
13.7%
13.7%
22.1%
22.1%
22.1%
1.2%
1.5%
1.9%
Debtors Turnover(Times)
15.0
14.9
16.1
18.1
17.0
14.5
Creditors Turnover(Times)
15.5
18.2
14.0
14.6
15.1
15.9
5.7
6.0
5.1
4.4
4.7
5.0
24.3
24.5
22.7
20.2
21.5
25.1
23.6
20.0
26.0
25.1
24.2
23.0
64.3
61.1
71.8
82.5
78.0
73.2
EBIAT Margin(%)
CEPS
Cash As a % Of Total Exp.
Net Sales/ Gross Block (Times)
Current Tax (%)
DEBT EQUITY RATIO (TIMES)
PRICE/ADJUSTED EPS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
P/E
1.2
1.2
0.8
11.0
9.2
7.1
Price/CEPS
0.6
0.5
0.4
7.1
6.0
4.8
Price/Book Value
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.9
1.7
1.4
EV/EBITDA
7.4
6.8
5.6
4.9
4.0
3.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
7.0
5.9
4.8
FC SHEET
12
(` mn)
CASH FLOW
FY07
FY08
Net profit
241.8
255.2
356.5
543.6
638.2
835.6
Depreciation
277.8
282.0
306.6
289.5
350.0
380.0
Deffered Tax
9.5
41.2
-27.5
-30.0
-49.2
-64.5
-149.1
-59.9
-285.5
-260.2
-450.1
-343.0
380.0
518.5
350.1
542.9
488.8
808.1
Capex
-227.5
-764.0
-162.7
-358.6
-36.9
-150.0
Investments (Net)
-123.5
0.0
-97.9
-0.1
-653.7
-210.0
-351.0
-764.0
-260.6
-358.7
-690.6
-360.0
-65.0
-65.0
-65.0
-73.6
-87.6
-114.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
43.4
0.0
0.0
Dividend
Share Capital
Share premium received
Debt
Cash Flow From Financing Activities
Others
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
10.0
385.4
-48.5
-115.4
319.4
-156.0
-55.0
320.4
-113.5
-145.6
231.8
-270.8
84.3
133.3
126.2
188.0
207.2
378.8
-51.9
91.8
-0.8
27.8
24.3
133.8
Opening cash
110.3
58.4
150.2
149.4
177.2
201.5
Closing cash
58.4
150.2
149.4
177.2
201.5
335.3
152.5
-245.5
187.4
184.3
451.9
658.1
FCF
FC SHEET
13
COMPANY NOTE
BUY
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
CMP
`275
`271.50/100
`14.82 cr
Face Value
`10
Mkt. Capitalization
`407.55 cr
33993
BSE SENSEX
18257
NSE - NIFTY
5479
NSE Code
EVERESTIND
Bloomberg Code
EVI IN
BSE Code
508906
Foray into steel building: Two years before Everest has entered into
steel building division and has executed around 350 projects and is now
established amongst architects, structural consultants, project divisions of
companies and leading contractors operating in industrial and logistics
sectors. The market today for PEB's in India is estimated at `3000 crores
with a 35% growth rate. Everests market share in the PEB market is 5%.
Current order book of the firm is around `120cr to be executed over 8-12
months. Furthermore EILs 5 manufacturing plants along with nearly 6000
retail outlets, ensures the company, pan India presence. This gives
competitive advantage for its steel building business.
Strong cash flow to fund capex: Everest Industries has spend `8cr on
its capex in FY10 and has scheduled around `20cr capex for the next year.
Strong operating cashflows to fund the capex keeping debt:equity ratio at a
comfortable level of 0.5:1. With asset turnover of 2:1 the firm is able to
generate high ROCE of 19%.
50.17%
Indian Institutions
09.25%
40.58%
6-MTS
YTD
1-YR
14%
71%
119%
NIFTY
5%
14%
16%
SENSEX
4%
14%
14%
EVEREST IND
(` mn)
BRIEF FINANCIALS
Net Sales
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Sales growth
86.1%
23.4%
26.8%
EBITDA
489.4
603.7
900.3 1,069.7
PAT
144.5
283.8
471.3
570.3
EPS
17.9%
9.8
19.2
31.8
38.5
P/E (x)
28.2
14.3
8.6
7.1
RONW (%)
9.9%
17.5%
24.0%
23.1%
EV/EBITDA
9.1
7.1
4.9
4.2
ABHILASHA SATALE
66338900 EXT. 152
abhilasha.satale@technogroup.co.in
FC SHEET
14
FINANCIALS
(` mn)
P & L A/c
Gross Sales
Excise Duty
Net Sales
% Change
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
3,257.9
3,070.1
5,520.1
6,809.0
8,581.4
10,090.4
234.3
229.9
233.2
283.7
310.0
340.0
3,023.6
2,840.2
5,286.9
6,525.3
8,271.4
9,750.4
19.9%
-6.1%
86.1%
23.4%
26.8%
17.9%
1,617.6
1,644.3
2,863.5
3,626.0
4,829.4
5,648.1
Stock Adjustments
(91.4)
(101.9)
(86.7)
(46.3)
Employee Expenses
257.9
318.5
484.2
630.2
722.0
780.0
173.9
185.9
472.1
Raw Materials
64.9
74.5
92.0
119.1
169.9
204.5
579.0
790.0
527.9
493.8
670.6
453.7
9.4
1.3
5.8
272.1
125.1
174.8
1,258.0
1,240.7
1,462.6
1.0
35.0
45.6
2,759.5
2,658.9
4,797.5
5,921.6
7,371.1
8,680.7
264.1
181.3
489.4
603.7
900.3
1,069.7
% Change
-35.7%
-31.4%
169.9%
23.4%
49.1%
18.8%
12.7
19.8
31.0
80.3
88.0
97.0
17.7
122.7
16.9
EBITDA
294.5
323.8
537.3
684.0
988.3
1,166.7
% Change
-42.8%
9.9%
65.9%
27.3%
44.5%
18.1%
45.0
89.9
176.6
99.5
105.0
102.0
17.8
42.9
11.8
267.3
276.8
372.5
584.5
883.3
1,064.7
89.1
96.4
171.4
183.7
210.0
250.0
EBIT
205.4
227.4
365.9
500.3
778.3
916.7
PBT
178.2
180.4
201.1
400.8
673.3
814.7
% Change
Non Recurrng
Current Interest
Financial Charges
Less: Interest Capitalised
PBDT
Depreciation
-58.3%
1.2%
11.5%
99.3%
68.0%
21.0%
Current Tax
50.1
24.2
0.2
117.0
202.0
244.4
Deferred Tax
6.9
6.7
47.9
4.6
6.3
8.5
116.6
143.2
144.5
283.8
471.3
570.3
% Change
-62.5%
22.8%
0.9%
96.4%
66.1%
21.0%
(0.3)
69.8
9.2
116.9
73.4
135.3
283.8
471.3
570.3
(0.3)
69.8
9.2
Minority Interest
Net Profit After Minority Interest
Extra Ordinary Items
Adjusted PAT
116.9
73.4
135.3
283.8
471.3
570.3
% Change
-51.9%
-37.2%
84.3%
109.8%
66.1%
21.0%
59.2
59.2
37.0
18.7
18.7
Dividend - Equity
Preference
Retained Earnings
FC SHEET
57.4
84.0
107.5
283.8
452.6
551.6
15
(` mn)
BALANCE SHEET
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
148.0
148.0
148.0
148.0
148.0
148.0
1,197.2
1,265.4
1,365.3
1,588.8
2,041.4
2,593.0
683.7
1,118.3
1,497.3
1,198.9
1,140.0
910.0
Preference
Reserves & Surplus
Revaluation Reserve
Others
Minority Interest
Secured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Unsecured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Gross Block
Less Accumulated Depreciation
Less Impairment of Assets
29.8
233.9
245.7
82.9
150.0
260.0
143.4
147.4
283.5
272.9
285.2
155.0
2,202.1
2,913.0
3,539.8
3,291.5
3,764.6
4,066.0
1,783.5
1,989.1
3,335.6
3,352.9
3,480.0
3,610.0
743.2
831.4
989.8
1,150.2
1,360.2
1,610.2
Net Block
1,040.3
1,157.7
2,345.8
2,202.7
2,119.8
1,999.8
Capital WIP
672.9
1,028.1
69.4
63.3
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.2
579.9
790.0
1,295.7
1,233.2
1,550.0
1,680.0
Lease Adjustments
Investments
Current assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories
Debtors
104.0
68.9
238.4
231.9
263.0
320.0
Advances
537.3
202.7
361.1
451.2
553.0
760.0
1,221.2
1,061.6
1,895.2
1,916.3
2,366.0
2,760.0
421.5
563.2
998.2
963.6
1,120.0
1,250.0
498.1
102.2
101.9
144.6
110.0
190.0
301.6
396.2
795.1
808.1
1,136.0
1,320.0
172.3
315.3
225.8
192.1
470.7
718.0
14.9
15.1
103.2
25.3
37.6
28.0
2,202.1
2,913.0
3,539.8
3,291.5
3,764.6
4,066.0
FC SHEET
16
EXPENSE ANALYSIS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
53.5%
57.9%
54.2%
55.6%
58.4%
57.9%
50.5%
54.3%
52.5%
54.9%
58.4%
57.9%
3.9%
6.0%
3.9%
0.0%
7.0%
7.0%
8.5%
11.2%
9.2%
9.7%
8.7%
8.0%
5.8%
6.5%
8.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
17.5%
17.4%
12.7%
7.0%
0.0%
0.0%
9.0%
5.6%
4.2%
19.3%
15.0%
15.0%
MARGIN ANALYSIS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Operating Margin(%)
8.7%
6.4%
9.3%
9.3%
10.9%
11.0%
EBITDA Margin(%)
9.7%
11.4%
10.2%
10.5%
11.9%
12.0%
PBDT Margin(%)
8.8%
9.7%
7.0%
9.0%
10.7%
10.9%
EBIT Margin(%)
6.8%
8.0%
6.9%
7.7%
9.4%
9.4%
PBT Margin(%)
5.9%
6.4%
3.8%
6.1%
8.1%
8.4%
PAT Margin(%)
3.9%
5.0%
2.7%
4.3%
5.7%
5.8%
EBIAT Margin(%)
4.8%
6.7%
5.9%
5.9%
7.0%
6.9%
ANALYSIS INPUTS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
89.3
93.2
98.9
109.8
132.6
166.6
DPS
4.0
4.0
2.5
1.3
1.3
EPS
7.9
9.7
9.8
19.2
31.8
38.5
Adjusted EPS
7.9
5.0
9.1
19.2
31.8
38.5
CEPS
13.9
16.2
21.3
31.6
46.0
55.4
5.7%
9.2%
5.6%
3.5%
4.5%
6.8%
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.4
2.7
30.7%
16.9%
4.3%
29.2%
29.2%
29.2%
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
1.52
2.07
1.93
1.90
2.31
2.42
0.53
0.96
1.15
0.74
0.59
0.43
3.2
2.1
1.8
3.9
5.5
6.6
8.8%
10.4%
9.9%
17.5%
24.0%
23.1%
50.8%
41.3%
25.6%
0.0%
4.0%
3.3%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
0.0%
0.5%
0.5%
Debtors Turnover(Times)
45.5
32.9
34.4
27.7
33.4
33.4
Creditors Turnover(Times)
6.9
7.1
7.8
9.5
11.5
12.7
5.5
4.1
5.1
5.2
5.9
6.0
8.0
11.1
10.6
13.2
10.9
10.9
33.0
46.7
38.0
38.6
31.8
28.8
66.5
88.0
72.0
70.7
61.4
60.5
PRICE/ADJUSTED EPS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
P/E
34.9
28.4
28.2
14.3
8.6
7.1
Price/CEPS
19.8
17.0
12.9
8.7
6.0
5.0
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.1
1.7
Price/Book Value
EV/EBITDA
16.6
15.1
9.1
7.1
4.9
4.2
23.8
20.4
15.5
10.5
7.2
6.0
FC SHEET
17
(` mn)
CASH FLOW
FY07
FY08
Net profit
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
116.9
73.4
135.3
283.8
471.3
570.3
Depreciation
89.1
96.4
171.4
183.7
210.0
250.0
Deffered Tax
6.9
6.7
47.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
70.9
-94.6
-398.9
-13.0
-327.9
-184.0
283.8
81.9
-44.3
454.5
353.4
636.3
-667.7
-560.8
-387.8
-11.2
-63.8
-130.0
0.0
-0.5
0.1
0.5
-0.5
0.3
-667.7
-561.3
-387.7
-10.7
-64.3
-129.7
-59.2
-59.2
-37.0
0.0
-18.7
-18.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Debt
481.0
638.7
390.8
-461.2
8.2
-120.0
421.8
579.5
353.8
-461.2
-10.5
-138.7
Others
5.9
-42.9
11.3
16.3
0.0
120.6
32.0
143.0
-89.5
-33.7
278.6
247.3
Opening cash
140.3
172.3
315.3
225.8
192.1
470.7
Closing cash
172.3
315.3
225.8
192.1
470.7
718.0
-383.9
-478.9
-432.1
443.3
289.6
506.3
FCF
FC SHEET
18
COMPANY NOTE
BUY
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
CMP
`625
`761/311
`7.49 cr
Face Value
`10
Mkt. Capitalization
`468.53 cr
36911
BSE SENSEX
18282
NSE - NIFTY
5486
NSE Code
HYDRBADIND
Bloomberg Code
HYI IN
BSE Code
509675
Strong brand name commands premium: The firm has wellestablished brand Charminar. Being well-penetrated the brand fetches 1015% premium to other brands. Thus, the realization for the firm has been
better than its peers. We expect realization for FC Sheet to increase from
`8300/t in FY10 to `9000/t and `9400/t for FY11E and FY12E respectively.
Strong operating cash flows: HIL has generated strong cash flows in the
past 6 years and we expect it to generate cash flow of around `100cr over
next two years. Strong cash flow and low debt level of 0.2:1 generates very
high ROCE of around 25% which is the highest in the industry.
43.10%
Indian Institutions
09.60%
47.30%
6-MTS
YTD
1-YR
-9%
13%
76%
NIFTY
5%
14%
16%
SENSEX
4%
14%
14%
HYD IND
(` mn)
BRIEF
FINANCIALS
Net Sales
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
Sales growth
29.6%
EBITDA
12.9%
21.1%
16.9%
PAT
440.9
870.2
920.4 1,096.9
EPS
59.1
116.6
123.4
147.0
P/E (x)
10.8
5.5
5.2
4.3
RONW (%)
27.0%
40.6%
32.5%
30.3%
EV/EBITDA
5.3
3.2
3.0
2.5
ABHILASHA SATALE
66338900 EXT. 152
abhilasha.satale@technogroup.co.in
FC SHEET
19
FINANCIALS
(` mn)
P & L A/c
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Gross Sales
4,765.1
5,234.7
6,639.7
7,563.7
9,188.0
10,660.0
Excise Duty
398.3
425.1
405.7
526.8
665.4
696.7
4,366.8
4,809.6
6,234.0
7,036.9
8,522.7
9,963.3
-2.3%
10.1%
29.6%
12.9%
21.1%
16.9%
Raw Materials
2,552.6
2,649.4
3,000.6
3,617.0
3,692.3
4,192.7
Stock Adjustments
(308.9)
(56.1)
292.3
(333.8)
Employee Expenses
364.2
387.4
484.5
562.2
674.0
780.0
169.0
229.2
252.2
86.6
106.6
125.2
378.2
394.9
435.5
596.6
790.0
689.9
600.8
544.2
Net Sales
% Change
30.5
0.5
28.3
126.2
141.4
155.5
1,683.6
1,960.2
2,291.6
8.7
3.2
29.4
4,097.0
4,457.3
5,347.7
5,529.0
6,923.1
8,054.3
Operating Profit
269.8
352.3
886.3
1,507.9
1,599.5
1,909.0
% Change
-59.7%
30.6%
151.6%
70.1%
6.1%
19.3%
39.2
38.3
39.8
40.5
40.0
40.0
7.3
17.4
2.2
EBITDA
Non Recurrng
316.3
408.0
928.3
1,548.4
1,639.5
1,949.0
% Change
-56.0%
29.0%
127.5%
66.8%
5.9%
18.9%
50.0
77.8
94.2
62.5
65.0
67.0
Current Interest
Financial Charges
Less: Interest Capitalised
PBDT
Depreciation
266.3
330.2
834.1
1,485.9
1,574.5
1,882.0
95.6
111.2
139.8
155.5
180.0
220.0
220.7
296.8
788.5
1,392.9
1,459.5
1,729.0
PBT
170.7
219.0
694.3
1,330.4
1,394.5
1,662.0
% Change
-71.0%
28.3%
217.0%
91.6%
4.8%
19.2%
Current Tax
59.6
43.3
223.5
460.2
474.1
565.1
Deferred Tax
19.0
29.8
23.9
5.0
5.1
6.0
87.1
140.8
440.9
870.2
920.4
1,096.9
-76.1%
61.7%
213.1%
97.4%
5.8%
19.2%
EBIT
(22.5)
4.1
(7.5)
109.6
136.7
448.4
870.2
920.4
1,096.9
(22.5)
4.1
(7.5)
Adjusted PAT
109.6
136.7
448.4
870.2
920.4
1,096.9
% Change
-71.3%
24.7%
228.0%
94.1%
5.8%
19.2%
37.3
37.3
74.6
147.2
155.7
185.6
49.8
103.5
366.3
723.0
764.7
911.3
Dividend - Equity
Preference
Retained Earnings
FC SHEET
20
(` mn)
BALANCE SHEET
Share Capital - Equity
Preference
Reserves & Surplus
Revaluation Reserve
Others
Minority Interest
Secured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Unsecured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Deferred Tax Liabilities
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
74.6
74.6
74.6
74.6
74.6
74.6
55.7
54.0
52.3
52.3
52.3
52.3
1,287.5
1,381.2
1,734.8
2,405.5
3,117.8
3,976.9
541.6
703.1
468.4
468.4
510.0
510.0
211.5
214.6
334.8
230.0
230.0
350.0
203.9
209.3
230.0
215.0
163.0
185.0
2,374.8
2,636.8
2,894.9
3,445.8
4,147.7
5,148.8
Gross Block
2,298.6
2,383.6
2,822.1
3,120.0
3,450.0
3,820.0
1,004.3
1,091.4
1,224.1
1,379.6
1,559.6
1,779.6
Net Block
1,294.3
1,292.2
1,598.0
1,740.4
1,890.4
2,040.4
Capital WIP
26.4
229.9
365.3
512.0
322.0
360.0
95.7
94.5
93.4
110.0
350.0
430.0
1,151.4
1,134.8
1,115.3
1,220.0
1,580.0
1,780.0
Debtors
389.2
478.9
506.1
610.0
796.0
910.0
Advances
287.3
220.7
190.3
273.0
365.0
552.0
1,827.9
1,834.4
1,811.7
2,103.0
2,741.0
3,242.0
817.5
919.0
975.2
1,020.0
1,180.0
1,260.0
185.3
103.9
145.7
185.0
272.0
190.0
825.1
811.5
690.8
898.0
1,289.0
1,792.0
64.6
162.8
104.6
164.4
270.4
467.4
68.7
45.9
42.8
21.0
25.9
59.0
2,374.8
2,636.8
2,894.9
3,445.8
4,147.7
5,148.8
Total Liabilities
Lease Adjustments
Investments
Current assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories
FC SHEET
21
EXPENSE ANALYSIS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
58.5%
55.1%
48.1%
51.4%
43.3%
42.1%
51.4%
53.9%
52.8%
46.7%
43.3%
42.1%
8.7%
8.2%
7.0%
0.0%
7.0%
7.0%
8.3%
8.1%
7.8%
8.0%
7.9%
7.8%
3.9%
4.8%
4.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
15.8%
12.5%
8.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
23.9%
23.0%
23.0%
MARGIN ANALYSIS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Operating Margin(%)
6.2%
7.3%
14.2%
21.4%
18.8%
19.2%
EBITDA Margin(%)
7.2%
8.5%
14.9%
22.0%
19.2%
19.6%
PBDT Margin(%)
6.1%
6.9%
13.4%
21.1%
18.5%
18.9%
EBIT Margin(%)
5.1%
6.2%
12.6%
19.8%
17.1%
17.4%
PBT Margin(%)
3.9%
4.6%
11.1%
18.9%
16.4%
16.7%
PAT Margin(%)
2.0%
2.9%
7.1%
12.4%
10.8%
11.0%
EBIAT Margin(%)
3.1%
4.5%
8.6%
13.3%
11.6%
11.7%
ANALYSIS INPUTS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
175.9
188.9
218.8
287.5
380.2
485.5
DPS
5.0
5.0
10.0
19.7
20.9
24.9
EPS
11.7
18.9
59.1
116.6
123.4
147.0
Adjusted EPS
14.7
18.3
60.1
116.6
123.4
147.0
CEPS
24.5
33.8
77.8
137.5
147.5
176.5
1.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
3.1%
4.6%
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.6
37.8%
22.1%
33.1%
34.6%
34.0%
33.0%
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
2.7
2.8
5.7
14.9
15.2
17.4
6.6%
10.0%
27.0%
40.6%
32.5%
30.3%
42.8%
26.5%
16.9%
26.5%
26.5%
26.5%
0.8%
0.8%
1.6%
3.2%
3.3%
4.0%
Debtors Turnover(Times)
11.2
11.1
12.7
12.6
12.1
11.7
Creditors Turnover(Times)
11.9
10.4
11.9
13.2
13.5
13.8
4.5
4.2
5.5
6.0
6.1
5.9
32.6
32.9
28.8
28.9
30.1
31.2
30.8
35.2
30.6
27.7
27.0
26.4
80.5
86.7
65.9
60.6
60.0
61.5
PRICE/ADJUSTED EPS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
P/E
53.5
33.1
10.6
5.4
5.1
4.3
Price/CEPS
25.5
18.5
8.0
4.5
4.2
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.9
2.2
1.6
1.3
EV/EBITDA
15.1
11.7
5.2
3.1
2.9
2.5
26.2
19.0
8.2
4.7
4.3
3.6
Price/Book Value
FC SHEET
22
(` mn)
CASH FLOW
FY07
Net profit
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
109.6
136.7
448.4
870.2
920.4
1096.9
Depreciation
95.6
111.2
139.8
155.5
180.0
220.0
Deffered Tax
19.0
29.8
23.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-290.6
13.6
120.7
-207.2
-391.0
-503.0
-66.4
291.3
732.8
818.5
709.4
813.9
(156.5)
(288.5)
(573.9)
(444.6)
(140.0)
(408.0)
84.9
1.2
1.1
(16.6)
(240.0)
(80.0)
(71.6)
(287.3)
(572.8)
(461.2)
(380.0)
(488.0)
(37.3)
(37.3)
(74.6)
(147.2)
(155.7)
(185.6)
3.1
Debt
155.2
164.6
(114.5)
(104.8)
41.6
120.0
121.0
127.3
(189.1)
(252.0)
(114.1)
(65.6)
Others
(14.9)
33.1
29.1
45.5
109.2
63.4
(2.1)
98.2
(58.2)
59.8
106.1
196.9
Opening cash
66.7
64.6
162.8
104.6
164.4
270.4
Closing cash
64.6
162.8
104.6
164.4
270.4
467.3
(222.9)
2.8
158.9
373.9
569.4
405.9
FCF
FC SHEET
23
COMPANY NOTE
BUY
CMP
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
`162.75
`192.95/108.10
`15.92 cr
Face Value
`10
Mkt. Capitalization
`259.098 cr
`32135 cr
BSE SENSEX
18257
NSE - NIFTY
5479
NSE Code
VISAKAIND
Bloomberg Code
VSKI IN
BSE Code
509055
Textile boom to benefit: Visaka Industries has blended yarn division with
total capacity of 1816 spindles. The division contributes around 18% of total
turnover. Yarn prices have moved up 40% y-o-y in FY10. Due to strong
demand and capacity consolidation witnessed in the global market yarn
prices are likely to stay firm in near future. We expect the division to grow
at 20% CAGR over next two years.
37.70%
Indian Institutions
05.06%
57.24%
6-MTS
YTD
1-YR
-14%
32%
41%
NIFTY
5%
14%
16%
SENSEX
4%
14%
14%
VISAKA
(` mn)
FY09
BRIEF FINANCIALS
Net Sales
Sales growth
34.4%
EBITDA
PAT
359.4
572.1
684.6
729.3
EPS
22.6
36.0
43.1
45.9
P/E (x)
3.5%
20.8%
8.0%
7.2
4.5
3.8
3.5
RONW (%)
20.7%
27.0%
25.8%
22.3%
EV/EBITDA
4.1
3.2
2.8
2.6
ABHILASHA SATALE
66338900 EXT. 152
abhilasha.satale@technogroup.co.in
FC SHEET
24
FINANCIALS
(` mn)
P & L A/c
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Gross Sales
4,451.9
4,595.7
6,063.5
6,393.1
7,706.2
8,325.1
Excise Duty
278.8
295.2
283.7
411.8
480.0
520.0
4,173.1
4,300.5
5,779.8
5,981.3
7,226.2
7,805.1
42.5%
3.1%
34.4%
3.5%
20.8%
8.0%
Net Sales
% Change
Raw Materials
2,374.6
2,748.9
2,958.3
3,362.2
3,726.0
4,030.0
Stock Adjustments
(17.4)
(200.5)
308.6
(258.1)
Employee Expenses
202.1
219.5
224.8
239.2
286.8
330.0
157.8
167.1
247.9
311.7
375.8
405.9
37.5
42.7
64.6
67.7
72.0
78.0
240.6
242.6
259.0
295.5
433.6
468.3
482.6
493.0
696.7
714.8
863.6
932.8
0.9
14.6
47.6
28.3
36.0
42.0
116.4
128.4
108.2
130.0
144.5
156.1
47.8
74.6
1.9
3,595.1
3,904.1
4,990.3
4,893.2
5,938.2
6,443.0
Operating Profit
578.0
396.4
789.5
1,088.1
1,288.0
1,362.1
% Change
21.5%
-31.4%
99.2%
37.8%
18.4%
5.8%
52.5
64.5
114.4
61.1
40.5
40.0
1.1
22.4
EBITDA
Non Recurrng
631.6
460.9
903.9
1,171.6
1,328.5
1,402.1
% Change
22.8%
-27.0%
96.1%
29.6%
13.4%
5.5%
Current Interest
121.7
157.2
170.2
109.3
97.0
109.0
Financial Charges
22.0
15.2
13.4
14.7
487.9
288.5
720.3
1,047.6
1,231.5
1,293.1
Depreciation
147.6
156.6
166.0
183.9
210.0
205.0
EBIT
484.0
304.3
737.9
987.7
1,118.5
1,197.1
PBT
340.3
131.9
554.3
863.7
1,021.5
1,088.1
% Change
17.0%
-61.2%
320.2%
55.8%
18.3%
6.5%
Current Tax
91.7
57.0
173.2
284.8
336.8
358.8
Deferred Tax
11.1
(6.1)
16.1
6.8
4.7
4.3
5.6
232.8
76.7
359.4
572.1
684.6
729.3
% Change
20.9%
-67.1%
368.6%
59.2%
19.7%
6.5%
Minority Interest
Net Profit After Minority Interest
Extra Ordinary Items
0.1
(21.0)
(26.2)
(12.4)
232.7
97.7
385.6
584.5
684.6
729.3
0.1
(21.0)
(26.2)
(12.4)
Adjusted PAT
232.7
97.7
385.6
584.5
684.6
729.3
% Change
20.8%
-58.0%
294.7%
51.6%
17.1%
6.5%
41.6
47.6
63.5
79.4
93.0
99.1
0.6
190.6
29.1
295.9
492.7
591.6
630.2
Dividend - Equity
Preference
Retained Earnings
FC SHEET
25
(` mn)
BALANCE SHEET
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
158.8
158.8
158.8
158.8
158.8
158.8
Preference
Reserves & Surplus
Revaluation Reserve
Others
Minority Interest
Secured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Unsecured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Deferred Tax Liabilities
1,400.2
1,433.7
1,718.7
2,198.1
2,789.7
3,420.0
1,689.2
1,815.7
1,508.3
1,165.5
1,165.5
1,165.5
172.5
164.8
179.2
454.8
250.0
250.0
103.9
102.7
121.9
126.2
62.0
3,524.6
3,675.7
3,686.9
4,103.4
4,426.0
4,994.3
2,688.3
2,699.6
3,123.4
3,309.8
3,750.0
4,050.0
826.2
977.3
1,140.9
1,232.2
1,442.2
1,647.2
Net Block
1,862.1
1,722.3
1,982.5
2,077.6
2,307.8
2,402.8
Capital WIP
35.0
372.7
105.1
91.6
130.0
50.0
12.5
22.2
23.0
31.0
35.0
Inventories
799.6
940.6
899.7
1,166.7
1,420.0
1,570.0
Debtors
473.7
536.5
531.3
507.6
690.0
780.0
Advances
633.4
635.9
659.2
782.6
840.0
960.0
1,906.7
2,113.0
2,090.2
2,456.9
2,950.0
3,310.0
408.5
476.7
503.1
571.9
630.0
830.0
327.0
370.0
474.6
589.0
690.0
190.0
1,171.2
1,266.3
1,112.5
1,296.0
1,630.0
2,290.0
442.9
308.5
455.6
608.7
318.2
210.5
1.3
6.3
9.4
6.5
9.0
6.0
3,525.0
3,676.1
3,687.3
4,103.4
4,426.0
4,994.3
Total Liabilities
Gross Block
Less Accumulated Depreciation
Less Impairment of Assets
Lease Adjustments
Investments
Current assets, Loans & Advances
FC SHEET
26
EXPENSE ANALYSIS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
56.9%
63.9%
51.2%
56.2%
51.6%
51.6%
59.3%
56.5%
51.9%
51.6%
51.6%
0.0%
5.8%
5.6%
4.5%
4.9%
6.0%
6.0%
4.8%
5.1%
3.9%
4.0%
4.0%
4.2%
3.8%
3.9%
4.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
11.6%
11.5%
12.1%
12.0%
12.0%
12.0%
56.9%
63.9%
51.2%
56.2%
51.6%
51.6%
MARGIN ANALYSIS
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Operating Margin(%)
13.9%
9.2%
13.7%
18.2%
17.8%
17.5%
EBITDA Margin(%)
15.1%
10.7%
15.6%
19.6%
18.4%
18.0%
PBDT Margin(%)
11.7%
6.7%
12.5%
17.5%
17.0%
16.6%
EBIT Margin(%)
11.6%
7.1%
12.8%
16.5%
15.5%
15.3%
PBT Margin(%)
8.2%
3.1%
9.6%
14.4%
14.1%
13.9%
5.6%
2.3%
6.7%
9.8%
9.5%
9.3%
13.9%
9.2%
13.7%
18.2%
17.8%
17.5%
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
75.9
99.2
109.3
133.3
167.0
205.5
DPS
2.6
3.0
4.0
5.0
5.9
6.2
EPS
14.7
4.8
22.6
36.0
43.1
45.9
Adjusted EPS
14.7
6.2
24.3
36.8
43.1
45.9
Operating Margin(%)
ANALYSIS INPUTS
Book Value Per Share
CEPS
24.0
14.7
33.1
47.6
56.3
58.8
10.5%
9.8%
10.7%
9.5%
4.5%
1.6%
1.6
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.9
28.3%
46.5%
32.3%
33.0%
33.0%
33.0%
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
3.2
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.5
3.5
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.4
3.1
1.6
3.2
6.4
8.1
7.7
19.3%
4.9%
20.7%
27.0%
25.8%
22.3%
17.9%
62.1%
17.7%
13.9%
13.6%
13.6%
1.6%
1.8%
2.5%
3.1%
3.6%
3.8%
8.3
8.1
11.1
10.0
9.8
20.0
9.8
9.0
11.0
9.5
10.5
11.0
4.8
4.7
5.6
4.6
4.8
9.9
44.2
45.3
32.8
36.5
37.1
18.2
37.4
40.8
33.3
38.4
34.9
33.2
76.1
78.1
65.2
78.9
75.5
36.7
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
11.1
33.7
7.2
4.5
3.8
3.5
Price/CEPS
6.8
11.1
4.9
3.4
2.9
2.8
Price/Book Value
2.1
1.6
1.5
1.2
1.0
0.8
PRICE/ADJUSTED EPS
P/E
EV/EBITDA
6.0
8.2
4.2
3.2
2.8
2.7
9.9
16.1
7.2
5.0
4.2
4.0
FC SHEET
27
(` mn)
CASH FLOW
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Net profit
232.7
97.7
385.6
584.5
684.6
729.3
Depreciation
147.6
156.6
166.0
183.9
210.0
205.0
Deffered Tax
11.1
-6.1
16.1
6.8
0.0
0.0
-457.7
-95.1
153.8
-183.5
-334.0
-660.0
-66.3
153.1
721.5
591.7
560.6
274.3
Capex
547.5
349.0
156.2
172.9
478.6
220.0
12.4
-12.5
22.2
0.8
8.0
4.0
559.9
336.5
178.4
173.7
486.6
224.0
Dividend
-42.2
-47.6
-63.5
-79.4
-93.0
-99.1
27.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Investments (Net)
Share Capital
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
Debt
352.7
118.8
-293.0
-67.2
-204.8
0.0
337.6
71.2
-356.5
-146.6
-297.8
-99.1
Others
580.9
695.2
396.3
465.7
1039.9
506.9
250.3
-134.4
147.1
153.1
-290.5
-107.7
Opening cash
192.6
442.9
308.5
455.6
608.7
318.2
Closing cash
442.9
308.5
455.6
608.7
318.2
210.5
FC SHEET
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