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TECHNO SHARES & STOCKS LTD

INDIA RESEARCH
FC SHEET INDUSTRY

20th AUGUST 2010

FIBER CEMENT SHEET INDUSTRY REPORT


GRAMIN VIKAS

ABHILASHA SATALE
6633 8900 EXT. 152
abhilasha.satale@technogroup.co.in

This Page is Intentionally Left Blank

FC SHEET INDUSTRY
RAMCO INDUSTRIES LTD.
Recommendation
CMP
Target Price
Equity
Mkt Cap

BUY
`67
`85
`86.7cr
`585cr

EVEREST INDUSTRIES LTD.


Recommendation
CMP
Target Price
Equity
Mkt Cap

BUY
`275
`336
`14.82cr
`407.55cr

KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Rising disposable income in the hands of rural people and rising warehousing demand is
major drivers Fibre Cement (FC) Sheet demand. Governments increasing thrust on rural
housing, rising MSPs of crops are likely to fuel demand growth of 4mnt FC sheet industry
at more than 10% CAGR over the medium term. Oligopoly structure of the industry
retains 60% of the market share in the hands of 4 players giving pricing power. Capacity
additions foreseen in the industry over the medium term are unlikely to create a glut.
Therefore, we recommend BUY on Everest Industries, Ramco Industries, Hyderabad
Industries and Visaka Industries.


HYDERABAD INDUSTRIES LTD.


Recommendation
BUY
CMP
`625
Target Price
`808
Equity
`7.49cr
Mkt Cap
`468.53cr

Governments thrust on rural housing: In just 5years from 2006-07 to


2010-11 government spending on rural economy has increased at a CAGR of
47% from `7735cr to `53084cr. Under NREGA the allocation has increased at
a CAGR of 37% from `11300cr to `40100cr over the same period. Indira
Aawas Yojana has been able to garner budgetary support of `10000cr in 201011. Under this scheme total house constructed in the year has gone up from
11lakh houses in 2005-06 to 40lakh houses in 2010-11. This will increase the
demand for FC sheets, as this is the preferred roofing material in the rural
housing.

VISAKHA INDUSTRIES LTD.


Recommendation
BUY
CMP
`162.75
Target Price
`202
Equity
`15.92cr
Mkt Cap
`259.098cr

Warehousing- Big opportunity: The development of organized retail in


India and the rising fortunes of the manufacturing sector following Indias
emergence as a low-cost outsourcing hub have buoyed its warehousing
market. Indian warehousing sector growing at the rate of 35-40 percent
annually to become a $55 billion industry by 2010-11. We expect demand
from this sector for FC sheets to pick up very fast as the sector is still under
penetrated.

Rural boom to benefit: Rural consumer enjoys rising disposable income


due to unprecedented food inflation, which has driven up MSPs for farmers
whereas the costs are capped due to government subsidies. MSPs for most
of the crops have increased at more than 10% CAGR during last 5 years.
Rising disposable income in the hands of rural consumer will fuel up demand
for FC sheets.

Sustainable growth: Rural boom, rising warehousing are growth potentials


for FC sheet industry. Current consumption of FC sheets in the country is
around 4mnt, which we expect to grow at a sustainable rate of 10-12% over
the longer term. Oligopoly structure of the industry to retain more than 60%
market share in the hands of 4 major players.

Reducing cost increasing margins: Reducing cement prices to reduce cost


of manufacturing for asbestos cement sheets as cement contributes around
35% of the total cost. Cement prices have corrected by 20% from its high.
Thus, reducing manufacturing cost. Another important raw material for
cement sheets is asbestos fiber, which is mostly imported. The prices of the
product have increased by 5-6% having 2-3% effects on the end product
pricing.

 Valuations not factoring future potentials: Inspite of strong growth


expected in medium term the entire gamut of companies in the sector is
available at very compelling valuations currently. We expect demand growth of
10% for FC Sheet industry to drive four organized players profitability at 20%
CAGR over next two years. Ramco Industries is our best bet in the
entire spectrum due to aggressive expansion plans and ramping up
of Srilankan operations. Followed by Everest Industries due to its
cheap valuation and exposure to building solutions segment. We
recommend BUY on Hyderabad Industries and Visaka Industries
as well.

FC SHEET

20th August 2010

INVESTMENT RATIONALE
GOVERNMENTS THRUST ON RURAL HOUSING
GOIs focus on rural housing to be another factor, which will drive FC sheet
demand. Through different social schemes like Bharat Nirman, Indira Aawas Yojana
and NREGA government is boosting support to housing development in rural
market. Allocation towards IAY and NREGA has increased at a CAGR of 29% and
37% over 2006-2010 respectively. Total houses to be build under IAY is expected
to be around 40lakh in 2010-11. Government intends to build 150lakh houses in
11th Five Year Plan.
NREGA is anticipated to provide employment to around 10.9cr people in 201011E. Average wage per person per day has gone up from `65 in 2006-07 to `89 in
2010-11E.
Rising disposable income through increased primary product prices and different
government initiatives to provide dwelling and employment to give more pricing
power in the hands of rural people. Current penetration of FC sheet is low in the
country whereas, increasing income in the hands of rural consumers to improve
demand for FC sheets going forward. We expect FC sheet demand to grow at 1012% in the medium term. Current consumption in the country is around 40lakh
tones for FC sheets.
Allocation under schemes (`
`Cr)
100%
80%

2775

60%

960

40%
20%

4000

0%
2005-06

11300

12000

2920
1200
3000

4040
1800
2600

2006-07

2007-08

Sampoorna Gramin Rozgar Yojana


Indira Aawas Yojana

30000

39100

40100

5400
2350
0

8800
2350
0

10000
2984
0

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

Swarnajayanti Gram Swarozgar Yojana


NREGA

Source : Economic Survey

Houses constructed (Units)

NREGA Success

4500000

12

4000000

10

3500000

3000000

2500000

2000000

10.89

10.01
6.48

65
3.78

100
89

84

75

4.51

3.39

4.34

20

1000000

0
2006-07

500000

60
40

2.1

1500000

80

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

Job cards issued (Crores)


2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

Employment provided to households (Crores)


Average wage paid per person/day (Rs)

Source : Economic Survey

FC SHEET

Source : Economic Survey

20th August 2010

FC Sheet Price (`
`/tonne)

FC Sheet demand (lakh tonne) and growth (%)

10000
8000

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20

9000
8349

9000
6812

7533

7064
6212

7000
6000

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2006-07

2005-06

2004-05

5000

10.9%
10.0%
8.9%
8%

31.4

11%

8.7%

7.6%
36.8

33.8

40

44

13%

48.8

9%
7%
5%

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Source : Industry

Source : Industry,Techno Estimate

WAREHOUSING- BIG OPPORTUNITY


The boom in commodities and retailing will result in Indian warehousing sector
growing at the rate of 35-40 percent annually to become a $55 billion industry by
2010-11. According to an industry report by the Associated Chambers of
Commerce and Industry in India (Assocham), India is short of 10 million tonnes of
cold storage capacity, resulting in the wastage of over 30 percent of agricultural
produce every year. A recent report by brokerage Macquarie Research said the
Indian government plans to spend $24 billion over eight years on cold or supply
chain infrastructure. The development of organized retail in India and the rising
fortunes of the manufacturing sector following Indias emergence as a low-cost
outsourcing hub have buoyed its warehousing market. FC sheet is preferred
roofing material in warehousing industry. Therefore we feel warehousing industry
to be major demand booster for FC sheet industry.
OLIGOPOLY TO RETAIN PRICING POWER
Four players gaining around 60% of the market share makes FC sheet industry an
oligopoly retaining pricing power to leaders. Hyderabad Industries with 854500t of
capacity controls around 19% of the market share in FC sheet industry. Strong
demand and controlled supply to improve margins of these players.
In 2007-08 global slowdown and capacity expansions created glut in roofing sheet
industry affecting the profitability of the companies. However, current upturn is
likely to sustain longer as capacity additions are very limited in the current cycle.
Where demand is expected to increase by atleast 400000t every year the capacity
additions by major four players is averaging 200000t p.a. for next two years. FC
sheet manufacturing is highly sensitive to environmental norms. Similarly, plant
location is also very important the product being less transport friendly. These
factors act as barriers for huge expansion consequently avoiding the glut.
Capacity additions by major players (Tonnes) (Revenue)
242000
208150
153470

238000

192000

165000
90000
64500

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source : Industry,Techno Estimates

FC SHEET

20th August 2010

FC sheet-PREFERRED ROOFING OVER ITS ALTERNATIVES


Cement Asbestos Sheet is preferred choice amongst rural class due to durability,
sound resistance, safety and affordability. There are estimated 25 crore houses in
India Of these, 46% are considered to be homes with pucca roofs. The rest 54%
homes are made of thatch (temporary kuccha roofing) and clay tiles. Usage of clay
tiles is shrinking due to non-availability of raw material. Amongst pucca houses,
less than half are made with RCC slabs. The rest are made with ready-house
roofing products, which include Fibre Cement Roofing and metal roofing. Some
roofs are also made using bricks and stone. A kuccha roof homeowner has
aspirations and seeks security. He is more likely to graduate to a Fibre Cement
Roof rather than a RCC slab. The cost of a pucca roof using Fibre Cement Roofing
is 1/3rd the cost of an RCC ceiling slab. The market for Fibre Cement Roofing
today is estimated to be `4,000 crores and for metal roofing `3,500 crores and
Indias demand for housing and infrastructure continues to grow unabated.
Preferability chart

Comparison of other sheets with FC sheet chart.

Life Span (years)

THATCHET

RED CLAY TILES

CORRUGATED GALV.
IRON SHEETS

ALUMINIUM SHEETS

FC SHEET

2-3years

NA

Oct-15

NA

50

Maintenace

Nil

Frequent

3-5yers

Nil

Nil

Fire rating

Poor

Retardant

Poor

Poor

Retardant

Thermal insulation

Good

Good

Poor

Poor

Good

Wind Resistance

Poor

Poor

Poor

Poor

Good

Noise level

Poor

Poor

Poor

Poor

Good

Acoustic rating

NA

Poor

Poor

Poor

Good

Condensation
Cost

Low

Low

High

High

Low

Very Low

Low

High

Very High

Low

REDUCING CEMENT PRICES TO BENEFIT


Cement contributes around 45% of the total volume in FC sheet manufacturing
and around 15% of the total cost. Rising capacity expansions in the cement
industry has created medium-term supply glut in the industry thus, putting
pressure on the prices. Cement prices on an average have reduced around 20%
from its high. We expect cement prices to be lower for the medium term. This
would benefit FC Sheet industry as the end product prices are not dependent on
the raw material prices, end user being different.

FC SHEET

20th August 2010

KEY RISKS
Dependency on imported raw material
Asbestos fibre is important raw material for FC sheet manufacturing contributing
around 30% of total cost. India doesnt have any procurable reserves of chrysotile
fibre. Therefore, we import 100% of our requirement from major four players.
Imported raw material leaves industry vulnerable to forex risks and dependency
on four players doesnt give bargaining power.

PRODUCT NAME

HYDERABAD INDUSTRIES

EVEREST INDUSTRIES

VISAKA INDUSTRIES

RAMCO INDUSTRIES

ASBESTOS CEMENT FIBRE


SHEET

BUILDING PRODUCTS

ASBESTOS CEMENT FIBRE


SHEET

ASBESTOS CEMENT FIBRE


SHEET

854500

710000

652000

534000

80.55

81

78.64

62

19.4

16.1

14.8

12.1

BUILDING PANELS &


BOARDS

STEEL BUILDING

BOARDS

CALCIUM SILICATE
BOARD

460000

30000

60000

40000

2.9

17

2.41

3.97

TEXTILE YARN (SPINDLES)

CEMENT CLINKERS
GRINDING

100000

1816

216000

3.87

18.71

4.28

Capacity (MT)
Contibution to revenue (%)
Market share (%)
PRODUCT NAME
Capacity (MT)
Contibution to revenue (%)
PRODUCT NAME

AACB

Capacity (MT)
Contibution to revenue (%)
PRODUCT NAME

THERMAL INSULATION

TEXTILE YARN (SPINDLES)

6000

43296

4.7

12.77

Capacity (MT)
Contibution to revenue (%)

PEER COMPARISON
(` mn)
EVEREST

HYDERABAD

RAMCO

VISAKA

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

5520.10

6809.00

9886.00

11308.00

6234.00

7036.90

8522.65

9963.31

4528.70

5286.10

6284.80

7685.09

5779.80

5981.30

7226.20

7805.10

EBITDA

537.30

684.00

1092.48

1272.35

928.30

1548.40

1639.53

1949.02

1031.50

1195.40

1493.82

1771.36

903.90

1171.60

1328.47

1402.07

Net Profit

144.50

283.80

523.24

623.25

440.90

870.20

920.39

1096.93

356.50

535.90

642.15

854.88

359.40

572.10

684.65

729.29

Equity

148.00

148.00

148.00

148.00

74.60

74.60

74.60

74.60

43.30

86.70

86.70

86.70

158.80

158.80

158.80

158.80

Debt

1743.00

1281.80

1290.00

1190.00

803.20

698.40

740.00

860.00

2592.00

2476.60

3250.00

2930.00

1687.50

1620.30

1415.50

1415.50

9.76

19.18

35.35

42.11

59.10

116.65

123.38

147.04

82.33

6.18

7.41

9.86

22.63

36.03

43.11

45.92

98.88

109.80

134.40

171.87

218.85

287.50

380.19

485.51

604.41

34.98

41.15

48.59

109.26

133.32

167.05

205.52

21%

17%

19%

17%

19%

22%

34%

3%

21%

8%

Sales

EPS
BVPS

GROWTH MARGINS & RETURNS


sales growth

86%

23%

47%

15%

30%

13%

PAT growth

84%

110%

84%

19%

213%

97%

6%

19%

40%

50%

20%

33%

369%

59%

20%

7%

EBITDA margins

10%

10%

11%

12%

15%

22%

19%

20%

23%

23%

24%

23%

16%

20%

18%

18%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

12%

11%

11%

8%

10%

10%

11%

6%

10%

9%

9%

PAT margins
Tax rates

4%

29%

29%

29%

33%

7%

6%

33%

29%

29%

29%

29%

32%

33%

33%

33%

ROE %

10%

17%

26%

25%

27%

41%

32%

30%

14%

18%

18%

20%

21%

27%

26%

22%

ROCE %

10%

12%

19%

19%

21%

32%

27%

26%

12%

14%

15%

16%

14%

17%

17%

34%

DER

1.15

0.74

0.58

0.42

0.44

0.28

0.23

0.21

0.93

0.75

0.85

0.64

0.90

0.69

0.48

0.40

VALUATIONS
CMP

260.00

Mcap
PER (x)

639.00

3848.00

72.00

4766.94

163.00

6242.40

2588.44

26.63

13.56

7.35

6.17

10.81

5.48

5.18

4.35

0.87

11.65

9.72

7.30

7.20

4.52

3.78

3.55

P/BV

2.63

2.37

1.93

1.51

2.92

2.22

1.68

1.32

0.12

2.06

1.75

1.48

1.49

1.22

0.98

0.79

EV / EBITDA (x)

9.16

7.20

4.51

3.87

5.26

3.16

2.98

2.51

6.21

5.36

4.29

3.61

4.10

3.16

2.79

2.64

Mcap / sales

FC SHEET

0.57

0.68

1.18

0.43

20th August 2010

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
RURAL BOOM TO BENEFIT
Rising disposable income in the hands of rural consumer will drive asbestos
cement roofing sheet demand in the country. Rising food deficit, increasing prices
and rising MSPs are providing farmers with additional disposable income. Even
today only 20% of rural roofs are of FC Sheet thus, stores lot of potential for
replacement demand against thatched and red tiles roofs.
Food inflation is at the highest level today at 16% showing supply side constraints.
Good prices world over sky-rocketed last year and are not showing signs of
softening. This has increased MSPs (Minimum Support Prices) for all the
commodities leaving more disposable income in the hands of farmers. 60% of the
population, which drives the consumption of the economy gaining money power,
would drive the demand for rural products such as FC sheets. We expect food
inflation is not a short-term cause to deal with. Rising consumption to settle food
prices at higher level benefiting that 60% of the population.
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (MSP)

Maize
Moong

Barley
Urad

Gram
Sugarcane

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2004-05

2003-04

2002-03

2002-03

2001-02

1999-00

1990-91

3000
2000
1000
0

Arhar

Source : Economic Survey

VALUATION
We feel FC sheet industry to be major beneficiary of rural boom and rise in
warehousing demand. Inspite of huge potential the companies under this sector
are under owned by investors. This is expected to be reason for re-rating of the
entire sector. On an average we expect the profitability of the sector companies
to grow at a CAGR of 20% over the next two years. However, the stocks are still
available at much lower level of P/E of around 6-7x forward.
Our favorite stock in the spectrum is Ramco Industries which will be
benefited from its aggressive expansion plans in the domestic as well as
Srilankan Markets. Everst is also preferred bet in the spectrum due to
its exposure to building solutions business which store huge business
opportunity in itself. Other than these we also recommend BUY on
Hyderabad Industries being a leader and still available cheap and
Visaka Industries.
(` mn)
PEER COMPARISON

PRICE (`)

MKT. CAP

FY11

FY12

Hyderabad Industries

643

4815

8445.3

9935.4

Ramco

72

5850

6304.8

7715.1

654

878

Everest

260

3857

9576

10968

523

Visaka

163

2591

7226.2

7805.1

684.6

FC SHEET

NET SALES

PAT
FY11

EPS

EV/EBIDTA

ROE(%)

FY11

FY12

FY11

FY12

FY11

FY12

FY11

FY12

920.4 1096.9 123.4

147.0

5.2

4.3

3.0

2.5

32.50%

30.3%

7.5

10.1

9.5

7.1

4.2

3.6

18.30%

24%

623

35.4

42.1

7.4

6.2

4.5

3.9

26.30%

24.5%

729.3

43.1

45.9

3.8

3.5

2.8

2.6

25.80%

22.3%

FY12

P/E

20th August 2010

COMPANY NOTE

RAMCO INDUSTRIES LTD.

BUY
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
CMP

`67

52 week High / Low

73/34

Equity Cap (current)

86.70

Face Value

`1

Mkt. Capitalization

`585cr

Avg. Daily Vol. (12 M)

47238

BSE SENSEX

18257

NSE - NIFTY

5479

NSE Code

RAMCOIND

Bloomberg Code

RAMCO IN

BSE Code

532369

Gaining market share through aggressive expansion: Ramco is


adding its FC sheet capacity by 120000t at Gangaijondan, which is expected
to get commissioned by 30th September 2010. Diversifying the presence
Ramco Industries is further expanding its capacity by 120000MT at the
Industrial Area, Bihiya, Bhojpur District in the State of Bihar to cater to the
markets of the Eastern and North Eastern Regions. The estimated cost of
the project is around `35cr. Aggressive capacity expansion in diversified
geographical arenas to benefit Ramco to gain market share in the growing
market. We expect Ramco to expand its sales volume from 466250t in
FY10 to 524000t in FY11E and 582600t in FY12E.

Geographical reach widening: Ramco currently operates through 7


plants located in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. Its
8th plant at Gangaikondan will strengthen its reach Southern part. And
further expansion in Bhojpur district will widen its presence in Northern
and Eastern districts. FC sheet being less transport friendly, wider
geographical presence enables Ramco to garner various rural markets
countrywide. Its international presence in Sri Lanka to benefit it being
growing market for FC Sheets.

Sri Lankan operations to contribute: Ramco Industries has operations


in Sri Laka under its wholly owned subsidiary with total capacity of 100000t
FC sheets. Looking at the growth prospects in this country the firm has
decided to expand this capacity by 72000t at a total cost of `30cr.
Improved profitability from this division is likely to contribute it its profits
going forward.

Textile business to flourish: Ramco with 43296 spindles capacity spins


around 2.6mnt yarn. Production is expected to rise due to rising yarn
prices. We expect Ramco to spin around 4mnt yarn in FY11E and FY12E.
Yarn prices have increased around 25% in FY10, which we expect to settle
at higher level. Therefore, profitability from the textile business is expected
to rise.

Hiving off plastic division- a positive move: The managements move


to hive off plastic storage container division is a positive move. The division
generates thin margin thus, impacting ROE. The anticipated consideration
for the proposed move is around `1.43cr.

Strong cash flow to fund capex: Ramco Industries is expected to


generate Free Cash Flow of `45cr and `65cr in FY11E and FY12E
respectively. Strong cash flows generation to take care of future expansion.
However, strong cash flow is expected to keep debt:equity ratio at 0.6:1
level.

Improving ROCE: Improving profitability and reducing debt level to


improve ROCE to 20% from 17% in FY09. Upturn in the industry cycle
ensures the sustainability of ROCE over medium term.

ATTRACTIVE VALUATION: We expect Ramcos sales to increase at a


CAGR of 18% over FY10-FY12E and PAT at 36% over the same period. At
the current price of `67 the stock is trading at 9xFY11E and 7xFY12E
earnings respectively. EV/EBIDTA of the firm is at 4x and 3.3x of
FY11E and FY12E EBIDTA respectively. We recommend BUY
at current price with 12-month price target of `85.

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN @ 30-06-10


Promoters

50.54%

Indian Institutions

7.70%

Public & Others

41.76%

6-MTS

YTD

1-YR

7%

20%

19%

Nifty

13%

11%

22%

Sensex

13%

11%

20%

RAMCO

(` mn)
BRIEF FINANCIALS
Net Sales

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

4,528.7 5,286.1 6,304.8 7,715.1

Sales growth

18.7%

16.7%

EBITDA

708.7

868.3 1,430.2 1,713.4

PAT

356.5

535.9

654.0

878.0

EPS

82.3

6.2

7.5

10.1

0.9

11.6

9.5

7.1

RONW (%)

13.6%

17.7%

18.3%

24.0%

EV/EBITDA

6.2

5.4

4.2

3.6

P/E (x)

ABHILASHA SATALE
66338900 EXT. 152
abhilasha.satale@technogroup.co.in

FC SHEET

19.3%

22.4%

20th August 2010

FINANCIALS
(` mn)

P & L A/c

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Gross Sales

3,760.9

4,084.1

4,763.8

5,627.5

6,766.3

8,189.1

Excise Duty

262.7

269.9

235.1

341.4

368.0

415.0

3,498.2

3,814.2

4,528.7

5,286.1

6,398.3

7,774.1

17.9%

9.0%

18.7%

16.7%

21.0%

21.5%

Net Sales
% Change
Raw Materials

1,767.2

2,023.3

2,478.6

2,922.2

3,087.7

3,746.4

Stock Adjustments

(71.9)

(34.6)

(99.2)

(118.7)

Employee Expenses

188.8

198.4

208.9

261.7

328.0

344.0

Other Mfg Exp.

98.7

96.7

110.8

239.0

156.5

180.0

Repairs & Maintainence

61.6

97.1

129.2

Power, Oil & Fuel

237.0

271.5

304.8

339.9

430.6

520.0

Selling & Administrative Expenses

688.8

561.5

622.1

718.9

878.9

1,103.0

Provisions & Write offs


Other Expenses - Recurring
Non Recurring
TOTAL EXPENDITURE

3.9

32.3

29.6

37.3

54.8

150.0

250.0

6.6

11.5

27.5

3,009.1

3,258.9

3,820.0

4,417.8

5,031.8

6,143.4

Operating Profit

489.1

555.3

708.7

868.3

1,366.5

1,630.7

% Change

-15.6%

13.5%

27.6%

22.5%

57.4%

19.3%

292.4

294.2

322.8

327.1

79.0

88.0

Other Income - Recurring


Non Recurrng
EBITDA
% Change
Current Interest
Financial Charges
Less: Interest Capitalised
PBDT

2.0

5.2

783.5

854.7

1,031.5

1,195.4

1,445.5

1,718.7

6.5%

9.1%

20.7%

15.9%

20.9%

18.9%

164.9

194.9

252.6

212.2

265.6

250.8

7.8

8.5

8.7

7.8

610.8

651.3

770.2

975.4

1,179.9

1,467.9

Depreciation

277.8

282.0

306.6

289.5

350.0

380.0

EBIT

505.7

572.7

724.9

905.9

1,095.5

1,338.7

PBT

333.0

369.3

463.6

685.9

829.9

1,087.9

% Change

-29.9%

10.9%

25.5%

48.0%

21.0%

31.1%

Current Tax

77.0

69.5

130.0

180.0

240.9

315.9

Deferred Tax

9.5

41.2

(27.5)

(30.0)

(49.2)

(64.5)

Fringe Benefit Tax

3.3

3.8

4.6

1.0

Net Profit Before Minority Interest

243.2

254.8

356.5

535.9

638.2

835.6

% Change

-26.5%

4.8%

39.9%

50.3%

19.1%

30.9%

Minority Interest
Net Profit After Minority Interest
Extra Ordinary Items

1.4

(0.4)

241.8

255.2

356.5

535.9

638.2

835.6

1.4

(0.4)

(7.7)

Adjusted PAT

241.8

255.2

356.5

543.6

638.2

835.6

% Change

-26.7%

5.5%

39.7%

52.5%

17.4%

30.9%

65.0

65.0

65.0

73.6

87.6

114.8

178.2

189.8

291.5

462.3

550.5

720.8

Dividend - Equity
Preference
Retained Earnings

FC SHEET

10

20th August 2010

(` mn)

BALANCE SHEET
Share Capital - Equity
Preference
Reserves & Surplus
Revaluation Reserve
Others
Minority Interest
Secured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Unsecured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Total Liabilities

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

43.3

43.3

43.3

86.7

86.7

86.7

1.0

2,207.3

2,416.1

2,731.5

3,203.7

3,754.2

4,475.1

1,621.8

2,331.6

1,886.5

1,966.2

2,116.0

1,900.0

633.3

308.9

705.5

510.4

680.0

740.0

280.2

329.2

295.8

263.9

220.0

120.0

4,785.9

5,429.1

5,662.6

6,030.9

6,856.9

7,322.8

Gross Block

3,086.9

3,885.9

4,056.2

4,173.3

4,460.0

4,610.0

Less Accumulated Depreciation

1,126.9

1,407.2

1,713.2

1,989.6

2,339.6

2,719.6

Less Impairment of Assets

Net Block

1,960.0

2,478.7

2,343.0

2,183.7

2,120.4

1,890.4

Capital WIP

50.9

15.9

8.3

249.8

1,928.3

1,928.3

2,026.2

2,026.3

2,680.0

2,890.0

592.9

683.7

1,097.1

1,292.9

1,440.0

1,680.0

Debtors

239.9

273.0

290.9

293.3

460.0

610.0

Advances

353.3

376.3

485.7

592.6

890.0

1,010.0

1,186.1

1,333.0

1,873.7

2,178.8

2,790.0

3,300.0

292.1

364.3

561.3

542.4

620.0

760.0

105.7

120.5

178.7

242.5

326.0

353.0

788.3

848.2

1,133.7

1,393.9

1,844.0

2,187.0

Lease Adjustments
Investments
Current assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories

Total Current Assets


Less Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Asssets
Cash & Bank

58.4

150.2

149.4

177.2

201.5

335.4

Miscelleneous Exp. Not w/f

Deffered Tax Asset

7.8

2.0

11.0

20.0

4,785.9

5,429.1

5,662.6

6,030.9

6,856.9

7,322.8

Total Assets

FC SHEET

11

20th August 2010

EXPENSE ANALYSIS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Raw Material / Net Sales

50.5%

53.0%

54.7%

55.3%

48.3%

48.2%

Raw Material adjusted / Net Sales

48.5%

52.1%

52.5%

53.0%

48.3%

48.2%

6.8%

7.1%

6.7%

6.7%

6.7%

6.7%

Power & Fuel / Net Sales


Employee Exp. / Net Sales

5.4%

5.2%

4.6%

4.6%

4.6%

4.6%

Other Mfg Exp./ Net Sales

2.8%

2.5%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

19.7%

14.7%

13.7%

13.7%

13.7%

13.7%

Other Exp./ Net Sales

1.1%

1.1%

1.4%

1.4%

1.4%

1.4%

MARGIN ANALYSIS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Operating Margin(%)

14.0%

14.6%

15.6%

16.4%

21.4%

21.0%

EBITDA Margin(%)

22.4%

22.4%

22.8%

22.6%

22.6%

22.1%

PBDT Margin(%)

17.5%

17.1%

17.0%

18.5%

18.4%

18.9%

EBIT Margin(%)

14.5%

15.0%

16.0%

17.1%

17.1%

17.2%

PBT Margin(%)

9.5%

9.7%

10.2%

13.0%

13.0%

14.0%

PAT Margin(%)

7.0%

6.7%

7.9%

10.1%

10.0%

10.7%

11.9%

12.0%

13.6%

14.3%

14.1%

14.0%

ANALYSIS INPUTS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Book Value Per Share

500.3

543.9

604.4

35.0

41.1

48.5

DPS

15.0

15.0

15.0

0.8

1.0

1.3

EPS

56.2

58.8

82.3

6.2

7.4

9.6

Adjusted EPS

55.8

58.9

82.3

6.3

7.4

9.6

120.3

124.0

153.1

9.5

11.4

14.0

2.8%

3.2%

3.9%

3.7%

3.8%

4.4%

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.7

24.1%

19.8%

29.0%

29.0%

29.0%

29.0%

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Current Ratio (Times)

3.1

3.1

2.7

3.0

3.2

3.3

Debt Equity Ratio (Times)

1.0

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

Interest Coverage Ratio(Times)

2.5

2.4

2.4

3.6

3.4

4.3

11.2%

10.8%

13.6%

17.7%

17.9%

19.9%

Dividend Payout (%)

26.7%

25.5%

18.2%

13.7%

13.7%

13.7%

Dividend Yield (%)

22.1%

22.1%

22.1%

1.2%

1.5%

1.9%

Debtors Turnover(Times)

15.0

14.9

16.1

18.1

17.0

14.5

Creditors Turnover(Times)

15.5

18.2

14.0

14.6

15.1

15.9

Inventory Turnover (Times)

5.7

6.0

5.1

4.4

4.7

5.0

Average Collection period (Days)

24.3

24.5

22.7

20.2

21.5

25.1

Average Payment period (Days)

23.6

20.0

26.0

25.1

24.2

23.0

Inventory Turnover (DAYS)

64.3

61.1

71.8

82.5

78.0

73.2

S & D/ Net Sales

EBIAT Margin(%)

CEPS
Cash As a % Of Total Exp.
Net Sales/ Gross Block (Times)
Current Tax (%)
DEBT EQUITY RATIO (TIMES)

Return On Average Net Worth(%)

PRICE/ADJUSTED EPS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

P/E

1.2

1.2

0.8

11.0

9.2

7.1

Price/CEPS

0.6

0.5

0.4

7.1

6.0

4.8

Price/Book Value

0.1

0.1

0.1

1.9

1.7

1.4

EV/EBITDA

7.4

6.8

5.6

4.9

4.0

3.4

Pay Back Period

0.6

0.5

0.4

7.0

5.9

4.8

FC SHEET

12

20th August 2010

(` mn)

CASH FLOW

FY07

FY08

Net profit

241.8

255.2

356.5

543.6

638.2

835.6

Depreciation

277.8

282.0

306.6

289.5

350.0

380.0

Deffered Tax

9.5

41.2

-27.5

-30.0

-49.2

-64.5

-149.1

-59.9

-285.5

-260.2

-450.1

-343.0

380.0

518.5

350.1

542.9

488.8

808.1

Capex

-227.5

-764.0

-162.7

-358.6

-36.9

-150.0

Investments (Net)

-123.5

0.0

-97.9

-0.1

-653.7

-210.0

Cash Flow from Investing Activities

-351.0

-764.0

-260.6

-358.7

-690.6

-360.0

-65.0

-65.0

-65.0

-73.6

-87.6

-114.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

43.4

0.0

0.0

change in working capital


Cash Flow From Operating
Activities:

Dividend
Share Capital
Share premium received
Debt
Cash Flow From Financing Activities
Others

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.0

10.0

385.4

-48.5

-115.4

319.4

-156.0

-55.0

320.4

-113.5

-145.6

231.8

-270.8

84.3

133.3

126.2

188.0

207.2

378.8

Net change in cash

-51.9

91.8

-0.8

27.8

24.3

133.8

Opening cash

110.3

58.4

150.2

149.4

177.2

201.5

Closing cash

58.4

150.2

149.4

177.2

201.5

335.3

152.5

-245.5

187.4

184.3

451.9

658.1

FCF

FC SHEET

13

20th August 2010

COMPANY NOTE

EVEREST INDUSTRIES LTD.

BUY
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
CMP

`275

52 week High / Low

`271.50/100

Equity Cap (current)

`14.82 cr

Face Value

`10

Mkt. Capitalization

`407.55 cr

Avg. Daily Vol. (12 M)

33993

BSE SENSEX

18257

NSE - NIFTY

5479

NSE Code

EVERESTIND

Bloomberg Code

EVI IN

BSE Code

508906

Providing complete building solutions: Everest has diversified its


presence into complete building solutions making foray into cladding,
flouring, walling and ceiling solutions. Its wide range of products enables it
to cater to all class of customers. Out of total capacity of 710000t, around
136000t capacity is installed for production of boards and panels. The
company commands 14% market share in the India.

Volume increase to improve profitability: Everest has increased its


fibre sheet capacity to 710000t. The company has set up a unit in
Bhagwanpur, Roorkee, a tax haven in Uttaranchal. The plant has fostered
EILs presence in the Northern market, which is lucrative for its entire
gamut of products in building solutions. We expect sales volume to increase
to 560000t and 630000t by FY11E and FY12E respectively. Improving
volumes and reducing cost to improve profitability increasing margin to
11% by FY12E.

Foray into steel building: Two years before Everest has entered into
steel building division and has executed around 350 projects and is now
established amongst architects, structural consultants, project divisions of
companies and leading contractors operating in industrial and logistics
sectors. The market today for PEB's in India is estimated at `3000 crores
with a 35% growth rate. Everests market share in the PEB market is 5%.
Current order book of the firm is around `120cr to be executed over 8-12
months. Furthermore EILs 5 manufacturing plants along with nearly 6000
retail outlets, ensures the company, pan India presence. This gives
competitive advantage for its steel building business.

Strong cash flow to fund capex: Everest Industries has spend `8cr on
its capex in FY10 and has scheduled around `20cr capex for the next year.
Strong operating cashflows to fund the capex keeping debt:equity ratio at a
comfortable level of 0.5:1. With asset turnover of 2:1 the firm is able to
generate high ROCE of 19%.

ATTRACTIVE VALUATION: We expect EIL to clog revenue CAGR of


30% over FY10-FT12E and PAT CAGR of 45% on account of improved
profitability of FC sheets. At the current price of `260 the stock is trading
at 8xFY11E and 7xFY12E earnings. EV/EBIDTA of the firm is at 4.9x and
4.2x of FY11E and FY12E EBIDTA respectively. Compelling valuations
store lot of potential for investors to make money going forward.
We recommend BUY with 12-month price target of `336.

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN @ 30-06-10


Promoters

50.17%

Indian Institutions

09.25%

Public & Others

40.58%

6-MTS

YTD

1-YR

14%

71%

119%

NIFTY

5%

14%

16%

SENSEX

4%

14%

14%

EVEREST IND

(` mn)
BRIEF FINANCIALS
Net Sales

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

5,286.9 6,525.3 8,271.4 9,750.4

Sales growth

86.1%

23.4%

26.8%

EBITDA

489.4

603.7

900.3 1,069.7

PAT

144.5

283.8

471.3

570.3

EPS

17.9%

9.8

19.2

31.8

38.5

P/E (x)

28.2

14.3

8.6

7.1

RONW (%)

9.9%

17.5%

24.0%

23.1%

EV/EBITDA

9.1

7.1

4.9

4.2

ABHILASHA SATALE
66338900 EXT. 152
abhilasha.satale@technogroup.co.in

FC SHEET

14

20th August 2010

FINANCIALS
(` mn)

P & L A/c
Gross Sales
Excise Duty
Net Sales
% Change

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

3,257.9

3,070.1

5,520.1

6,809.0

8,581.4

10,090.4

234.3

229.9

233.2

283.7

310.0

340.0

3,023.6

2,840.2

5,286.9

6,525.3

8,271.4

9,750.4

19.9%

-6.1%

86.1%

23.4%

26.8%

17.9%

1,617.6

1,644.3

2,863.5

3,626.0

4,829.4

5,648.1

Stock Adjustments

(91.4)

(101.9)

(86.7)

(46.3)

Employee Expenses

257.9

318.5

484.2

630.2

722.0

780.0

Other Mfg Exp.

173.9

185.9

472.1

Raw Materials

Repairs & Maintainence

64.9

74.5

92.0

Power, Oil & Fuel

119.1

169.9

204.5

579.0

790.0

Selling & Administrative Expenses

527.9

493.8

670.6

453.7

9.4

1.3

5.8

272.1

125.1

174.8

1,258.0

1,240.7

1,462.6

1.0

35.0

45.6

2,759.5

2,658.9

4,797.5

5,921.6

7,371.1

8,680.7

Provisions & Write offs


Other Expenses - Recurring
Non Recurring
TOTAL EXPENDITURE
Operating Profit

264.1

181.3

489.4

603.7

900.3

1,069.7

% Change

-35.7%

-31.4%

169.9%

23.4%

49.1%

18.8%

Other Income - Recurring

12.7

19.8

31.0

80.3

88.0

97.0

17.7

122.7

16.9

EBITDA

294.5

323.8

537.3

684.0

988.3

1,166.7

% Change

-42.8%

9.9%

65.9%

27.3%

44.5%

18.1%

45.0

89.9

176.6

99.5

105.0

102.0

17.8

42.9

11.8

267.3

276.8

372.5

584.5

883.3

1,064.7

89.1

96.4

171.4

183.7

210.0

250.0

EBIT

205.4

227.4

365.9

500.3

778.3

916.7

PBT

178.2

180.4

201.1

400.8

673.3

814.7

% Change

Non Recurrng

Current Interest
Financial Charges
Less: Interest Capitalised
PBDT
Depreciation

-58.3%

1.2%

11.5%

99.3%

68.0%

21.0%

Current Tax

50.1

24.2

0.2

117.0

202.0

244.4

Deferred Tax

6.9

6.7

47.9

Fringe Benefit Tax

4.6

6.3

8.5

Net Profit Before Minority Interest

116.6

143.2

144.5

283.8

471.3

570.3

% Change

-62.5%

22.8%

0.9%

96.4%

66.1%

21.0%

(0.3)

69.8

9.2

116.9

73.4

135.3

283.8

471.3

570.3

(0.3)

69.8

9.2

Minority Interest
Net Profit After Minority Interest
Extra Ordinary Items
Adjusted PAT

116.9

73.4

135.3

283.8

471.3

570.3

% Change

-51.9%

-37.2%

84.3%

109.8%

66.1%

21.0%

59.2

59.2

37.0

18.7

18.7

Dividend - Equity
Preference
Retained Earnings

FC SHEET

57.4

84.0

107.5

283.8

452.6

551.6

15

20th August 2010

(` mn)

BALANCE SHEET

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Share Capital - Equity

148.0

148.0

148.0

148.0

148.0

148.0

1,197.2

1,265.4

1,365.3

1,588.8

2,041.4

2,593.0

683.7

1,118.3

1,497.3

1,198.9

1,140.0

910.0

Preference
Reserves & Surplus
Revaluation Reserve
Others
Minority Interest
Secured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Unsecured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Gross Block
Less Accumulated Depreciation
Less Impairment of Assets

29.8

233.9

245.7

82.9

150.0

260.0

143.4

147.4

283.5

272.9

285.2

155.0

2,202.1

2,913.0

3,539.8

3,291.5

3,764.6

4,066.0

1,783.5

1,989.1

3,335.6

3,352.9

3,480.0

3,610.0

743.2

831.4

989.8

1,150.2

1,360.2

1,610.2

Net Block

1,040.3

1,157.7

2,345.8

2,202.7

2,119.8

1,999.8

Capital WIP

672.9

1,028.1

69.4

63.3

0.1

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.2

579.9

790.0

1,295.7

1,233.2

1,550.0

1,680.0

Lease Adjustments
Investments
Current assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories
Debtors

104.0

68.9

238.4

231.9

263.0

320.0

Advances

537.3

202.7

361.1

451.2

553.0

760.0

1,221.2

1,061.6

1,895.2

1,916.3

2,366.0

2,760.0

421.5

563.2

998.2

963.6

1,120.0

1,250.0

498.1

102.2

101.9

144.6

110.0

190.0

Net Current Asssets

301.6

396.2

795.1

808.1

1,136.0

1,320.0

Cash & Bank

172.3

315.3

225.8

192.1

470.7

718.0

14.9

15.1

103.2

25.3

37.6

28.0

2,202.1

2,913.0

3,539.8

3,291.5

3,764.6

4,066.0

Total Current Assets


Less Current Liabilities
Provisions

Miscelleneous Exp. Not w/f


Deffered Tax Asset
Total Assets

FC SHEET

16

20th August 2010

EXPENSE ANALYSIS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Raw Material / Net Sales

53.5%

57.9%

54.2%

55.6%

58.4%

57.9%

Raw Material adjusted / Net Sales

50.5%

54.3%

52.5%

54.9%

58.4%

57.9%

3.9%

6.0%

3.9%

0.0%

7.0%

7.0%

Employee Exp. / Net Sales

8.5%

11.2%

9.2%

9.7%

8.7%

8.0%

Other Mfg Exp./ Net Sales

5.8%

6.5%

8.9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

17.5%

17.4%

12.7%

7.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Other Exp./ Net Sales

9.0%

5.6%

4.2%

19.3%

15.0%

15.0%

MARGIN ANALYSIS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Operating Margin(%)

8.7%

6.4%

9.3%

9.3%

10.9%

11.0%

EBITDA Margin(%)

9.7%

11.4%

10.2%

10.5%

11.9%

12.0%

PBDT Margin(%)

8.8%

9.7%

7.0%

9.0%

10.7%

10.9%

EBIT Margin(%)

6.8%

8.0%

6.9%

7.7%

9.4%

9.4%

PBT Margin(%)

5.9%

6.4%

3.8%

6.1%

8.1%

8.4%

PAT Margin(%)

3.9%

5.0%

2.7%

4.3%

5.7%

5.8%

EBIAT Margin(%)

4.8%

6.7%

5.9%

5.9%

7.0%

6.9%

ANALYSIS INPUTS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

89.3

93.2

98.9

109.8

132.6

166.6

DPS

4.0

4.0

2.5

1.3

1.3

EPS

7.9

9.7

9.8

19.2

31.8

38.5

Adjusted EPS

7.9

5.0

9.1

19.2

31.8

38.5

Power & Fuel / Net Sales

S & D/ Net Sales

Book Value Per Share

CEPS

13.9

16.2

21.3

31.6

46.0

55.4

Cash As a % Of Total Exp.

5.7%

9.2%

5.6%

3.5%

4.5%

6.8%

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.9

2.4

2.7

30.7%

16.9%

4.3%

29.2%

29.2%

29.2%

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Current Ratio (Times)

1.52

2.07

1.93

1.90

2.31

2.42

Debt Equity Ratio (Times)

0.53

0.96

1.15

0.74

0.59

0.43

3.2

2.1

1.8

3.9

5.5

6.6

8.8%

10.4%

9.9%

17.5%

24.0%

23.1%

Net Sales/ Gross Block (Times)


Current Tax (%)
DEBT EQUITY RATIO (TIMES)

Interest Coverage Ratio(Times)


Return On Average Net Worth(%)
Dividend Payout (%)

50.8%

41.3%

25.6%

0.0%

4.0%

3.3%

Dividend Yield (%)

1.5%

1.5%

0.9%

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

Debtors Turnover(Times)

45.5

32.9

34.4

27.7

33.4

33.4

Creditors Turnover(Times)

6.9

7.1

7.8

9.5

11.5

12.7

Inventory Turnover (Times)

5.5

4.1

5.1

5.2

5.9

6.0

Average Collection period (Days)

8.0

11.1

10.6

13.2

10.9

10.9

Average Payment period (Days)

33.0

46.7

38.0

38.6

31.8

28.8

Inventory Turnover (DAYS)

66.5

88.0

72.0

70.7

61.4

60.5

PRICE/ADJUSTED EPS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

P/E

34.9

28.4

28.2

14.3

8.6

7.1

Price/CEPS

19.8

17.0

12.9

8.7

6.0

5.0

3.1

3.0

2.8

2.5

2.1

1.7

Price/Book Value
EV/EBITDA

16.6

15.1

9.1

7.1

4.9

4.2

Pay Back Period

23.8

20.4

15.5

10.5

7.2

6.0

FC SHEET

17

20th August 2010

(` mn)

CASH FLOW

FY07

FY08

Net profit

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

116.9

73.4

135.3

283.8

471.3

570.3

Depreciation

89.1

96.4

171.4

183.7

210.0

250.0

Deffered Tax

6.9

6.7

47.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

70.9

-94.6

-398.9

-13.0

-327.9

-184.0

283.8

81.9

-44.3

454.5

353.4

636.3

-667.7

-560.8

-387.8

-11.2

-63.8

-130.0

0.0

-0.5

0.1

0.5

-0.5

0.3

-667.7

-561.3

-387.7

-10.7

-64.3

-129.7

-59.2

-59.2

-37.0

0.0

-18.7

-18.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

change in working capital


Cash Flow From Operating
Activities:
Capex
Investments (Net)
Cash Flow from Investing Activities
Dividend
Share Capital
Share premium received

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debt

481.0

638.7

390.8

-461.2

8.2

-120.0

Cash Flow From Financing Activities

421.8

579.5

353.8

-461.2

-10.5

-138.7

Others

5.9

-42.9

11.3

16.3

0.0

120.6

32.0

143.0

-89.5

-33.7

278.6

247.3

Opening cash

140.3

172.3

315.3

225.8

192.1

470.7

Closing cash

172.3

315.3

225.8

192.1

470.7

718.0

-383.9

-478.9

-432.1

443.3

289.6

506.3

Net change in cash

FCF

FC SHEET

18

20th August 2010

COMPANY NOTE

HYDERABAD INDUSTRIES LTD.

BUY
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
CMP

`625

52 week High / Low

`761/311

Equity Cap (current)

`7.49 cr

Face Value

`10

Mkt. Capitalization

`468.53 cr

Avg. Daily Vol. (12 M)

36911

BSE SENSEX

18282

NSE - NIFTY

5486

NSE Code

HYDRBADIND

Bloomberg Code

HYI IN

BSE Code

509675

Largest player retaining its market share: Hyderabad Industries is the


largest player in FC industry with total capacity of 854500tpa. With growing
industry size the company is expected to retain its market share of 18%. In
the current financial year the company has expanded its FC capacity by
90000tpa. Thus, we expect Hyderabad industries to increase its sales
volume from 729000t in FY10 to 760000t in FY11E and to 811000t in
FY12E.

Strong brand name commands premium: The firm has wellestablished brand Charminar. Being well-penetrated the brand fetches 1015% premium to other brands. Thus, the realization for the firm has been
better than its peers. We expect realization for FC Sheet to increase from
`8300/t in FY10 to `9000/t and `9400/t for FY11E and FY12E respectively.

Diversification to benefit: Diversification into allied products to benefit


the company. Hyderabad Industries has diversified into autoclave concrete
blocks, building panel, refractory and FC pipes. These businesses contribute
less than 20% of its topline. The firm markets its building panels and AACB
under the brand name Aerocon and refractory under the name Hysil. The
allied business to provide cushion in the downturn of the cycle.

Capacity expansion to reap benefits: HIL is expanding its capacity in


AACB and thermal insulation. It is expanding its AACB capacity to 2.2 lakh
Cu. Mtr. by Q1FY11E. It is setting up a new plant in Golan, Surat from which
it would cater to the high growth and lucrative markets of Gujarat and
Maharashtra. The capacity of thermal insulation business, which is high
margin business, is expected to expand to 9300t by Q2FY11E.

Strong operating cash flows: HIL has generated strong cash flows in the
past 6 years and we expect it to generate cash flow of around `100cr over
next two years. Strong cash flow and low debt level of 0.2:1 generates very
high ROCE of around 25% which is the highest in the industry.

VALUATION: At the current price of `625 the stock is available at 5.2x


and 4.3x FY11E and FY12E earnings respectively. Due to low debt level
EV/EBIDA is at very compelling level of 3x and 2.5x of FY11E and FY12E
EBIDTA respectively. The leader to benefit from the long lasting
boom in the industry. We recommend BUY on the stock with
12 month price target of `808.

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN @ 30-06-10


Promoters

43.10%

Indian Institutions

09.60%

Public & Others

47.30%

6-MTS

YTD

1-YR

-9%

13%

76%

NIFTY

5%

14%

16%

SENSEX

4%

14%

14%

HYD IND

(` mn)
BRIEF
FINANCIALS
Net Sales

FY08

FY09

FY10E

FY11E

6,234.0 7,036.9 8,522.7 9,963.3

Sales growth

29.6%

EBITDA

886.3 1,507.9 1,599.5 1,909.0

12.9%

21.1%

16.9%

PAT

440.9

870.2

920.4 1,096.9

EPS

59.1

116.6

123.4

147.0

P/E (x)

10.8

5.5

5.2

4.3

RONW (%)

27.0%

40.6%

32.5%

30.3%

EV/EBITDA

5.3

3.2

3.0

2.5

ABHILASHA SATALE
66338900 EXT. 152
abhilasha.satale@technogroup.co.in

FC SHEET

19

20th August 2010

FINANCIALS
(` mn)

P & L A/c

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Gross Sales

4,765.1

5,234.7

6,639.7

7,563.7

9,188.0

10,660.0

Excise Duty

398.3

425.1

405.7

526.8

665.4

696.7

4,366.8

4,809.6

6,234.0

7,036.9

8,522.7

9,963.3

-2.3%

10.1%

29.6%

12.9%

21.1%

16.9%

Raw Materials

2,552.6

2,649.4

3,000.6

3,617.0

3,692.3

4,192.7

Stock Adjustments

(308.9)

(56.1)

292.3

(333.8)

Employee Expenses

364.2

387.4

484.5

562.2

674.0

780.0

Other Mfg Exp.

169.0

229.2

252.2

86.6

106.6

125.2

Power, Oil & Fuel

378.2

394.9

435.5

596.6

790.0

Selling & Administrative Expenses

689.9

600.8

544.2

Net Sales
% Change

Repairs & Maintainence

Provisions & Write offs


Other Expenses - Recurring
Non Recurring
TOTAL EXPENDITURE

30.5

0.5

28.3

126.2

141.4

155.5

1,683.6

1,960.2

2,291.6

8.7

3.2

29.4

4,097.0

4,457.3

5,347.7

5,529.0

6,923.1

8,054.3

Operating Profit

269.8

352.3

886.3

1,507.9

1,599.5

1,909.0

% Change

-59.7%

30.6%

151.6%

70.1%

6.1%

19.3%

39.2

38.3

39.8

40.5

40.0

40.0

Other Income - Recurring

7.3

17.4

2.2

EBITDA

Non Recurrng

316.3

408.0

928.3

1,548.4

1,639.5

1,949.0

% Change

-56.0%

29.0%

127.5%

66.8%

5.9%

18.9%

50.0

77.8

94.2

62.5

65.0

67.0

Current Interest
Financial Charges
Less: Interest Capitalised
PBDT
Depreciation

266.3

330.2

834.1

1,485.9

1,574.5

1,882.0

95.6

111.2

139.8

155.5

180.0

220.0

220.7

296.8

788.5

1,392.9

1,459.5

1,729.0

PBT

170.7

219.0

694.3

1,330.4

1,394.5

1,662.0

% Change

-71.0%

28.3%

217.0%

91.6%

4.8%

19.2%

Current Tax

59.6

43.3

223.5

460.2

474.1

565.1

Deferred Tax

19.0

29.8

23.9

5.0

5.1

6.0

87.1

140.8

440.9

870.2

920.4

1,096.9

-76.1%

61.7%

213.1%

97.4%

5.8%

19.2%

EBIT

Fringe Benefit Tax


Net Profit Before Minority Interest
% Change
Minority Interest

(22.5)

4.1

(7.5)

Net Profit After Minority Interest

109.6

136.7

448.4

870.2

920.4

1,096.9

Extra Ordinary Items

(22.5)

4.1

(7.5)

Adjusted PAT

109.6

136.7

448.4

870.2

920.4

1,096.9

% Change

-71.3%

24.7%

228.0%

94.1%

5.8%

19.2%

37.3

37.3

74.6

147.2

155.7

185.6

49.8

103.5

366.3

723.0

764.7

911.3

Dividend - Equity
Preference
Retained Earnings

FC SHEET

20

20th August 2010

(` mn)

BALANCE SHEET
Share Capital - Equity
Preference
Reserves & Surplus
Revaluation Reserve
Others
Minority Interest
Secured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Unsecured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Deferred Tax Liabilities

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

74.6

74.6

74.6

74.6

74.6

74.6

55.7

54.0

52.3

52.3

52.3

52.3

1,287.5

1,381.2

1,734.8

2,405.5

3,117.8

3,976.9

541.6

703.1

468.4

468.4

510.0

510.0

211.5

214.6

334.8

230.0

230.0

350.0

203.9

209.3

230.0

215.0

163.0

185.0

2,374.8

2,636.8

2,894.9

3,445.8

4,147.7

5,148.8

Gross Block

2,298.6

2,383.6

2,822.1

3,120.0

3,450.0

3,820.0

Less Accumulated Depreciation

1,004.3

1,091.4

1,224.1

1,379.6

1,559.6

1,779.6

Net Block

1,294.3

1,292.2

1,598.0

1,740.4

1,890.4

2,040.4

Capital WIP

26.4

229.9

365.3

512.0

322.0

360.0

95.7

94.5

93.4

110.0

350.0

430.0

1,151.4

1,134.8

1,115.3

1,220.0

1,580.0

1,780.0

Debtors

389.2

478.9

506.1

610.0

796.0

910.0

Advances

287.3

220.7

190.3

273.0

365.0

552.0

1,827.9

1,834.4

1,811.7

2,103.0

2,741.0

3,242.0

817.5

919.0

975.2

1,020.0

1,180.0

1,260.0

185.3

103.9

145.7

185.0

272.0

190.0

825.1

811.5

690.8

898.0

1,289.0

1,792.0

64.6

162.8

104.6

164.4

270.4

467.4

68.7

45.9

42.8

21.0

25.9

59.0

2,374.8

2,636.8

2,894.9

3,445.8

4,147.7

5,148.8

Total Liabilities

Less Impairment of Assets

Lease Adjustments
Investments
Current assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories

Total Current Assets


Less Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Asssets
Cash & Bank
Miscelleneous Exp. Not w/f
Deffered Tax Asset
Total Assets

FC SHEET

21

20th August 2010

EXPENSE ANALYSIS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Raw Material / Net Sales

58.5%

55.1%

48.1%

51.4%

43.3%

42.1%

Raw Material adjusted / Net Sales

51.4%

53.9%

52.8%

46.7%

43.3%

42.1%

8.7%

8.2%

7.0%

0.0%

7.0%

7.0%

Power & Fuel / Net Sales


Employee Exp. / Net Sales

8.3%

8.1%

7.8%

8.0%

7.9%

7.8%

Other Mfg Exp./ Net Sales

3.9%

4.8%

4.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

15.8%

12.5%

8.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Other Exp./ Net Sales

3.1%

3.0%

3.0%

23.9%

23.0%

23.0%

MARGIN ANALYSIS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Operating Margin(%)

6.2%

7.3%

14.2%

21.4%

18.8%

19.2%

EBITDA Margin(%)

7.2%

8.5%

14.9%

22.0%

19.2%

19.6%

PBDT Margin(%)

6.1%

6.9%

13.4%

21.1%

18.5%

18.9%

EBIT Margin(%)

5.1%

6.2%

12.6%

19.8%

17.1%

17.4%

PBT Margin(%)

3.9%

4.6%

11.1%

18.9%

16.4%

16.7%

PAT Margin(%)

2.0%

2.9%

7.1%

12.4%

10.8%

11.0%

EBIAT Margin(%)

3.1%

4.5%

8.6%

13.3%

11.6%

11.7%

ANALYSIS INPUTS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Book Value Per Share

175.9

188.9

218.8

287.5

380.2

485.5

S & D/ Net Sales

DPS

5.0

5.0

10.0

19.7

20.9

24.9

EPS

11.7

18.9

59.1

116.6

123.4

147.0

Adjusted EPS

14.7

18.3

60.1

116.6

123.4

147.0

CEPS

24.5

33.8

77.8

137.5

147.5

176.5

Cash As a % Of Total Exp.

1.6%

2.6%

2.5%

2.4%

3.1%

4.6%

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.6

37.8%

22.1%

33.1%

34.6%

34.0%

33.0%

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

1.9

2.0

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.6

Debt Equity Ratio (Times)

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.2

Interest Coverage Ratio(Times)

2.7

2.8

5.7

14.9

15.2

17.4

6.6%

10.0%

27.0%

40.6%

32.5%

30.3%

Net Sales/ Gross Block (Times)


Current Tax (%)
DEBT EQUITY RATIO (TIMES)
Current Ratio (Times)

Return On Average Net Worth(%)


Dividend Payout (%)

42.8%

26.5%

16.9%

26.5%

26.5%

26.5%

Dividend Yield (%)

0.8%

0.8%

1.6%

3.2%

3.3%

4.0%

Debtors Turnover(Times)

11.2

11.1

12.7

12.6

12.1

11.7

Creditors Turnover(Times)

11.9

10.4

11.9

13.2

13.5

13.8

Inventory Turnover (Times)

4.5

4.2

5.5

6.0

6.1

5.9

Average Collection period (Days)

32.6

32.9

28.8

28.9

30.1

31.2

Average Payment period (Days)

30.8

35.2

30.6

27.7

27.0

26.4

Inventory Turnover (DAYS)

80.5

86.7

65.9

60.6

60.0

61.5

PRICE/ADJUSTED EPS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

P/E

53.5

33.1

10.6

5.4

5.1

4.3

Price/CEPS

25.5

18.5

8.0

4.5

4.2

3.5

3.6

3.3

2.9

2.2

1.6

1.3

EV/EBITDA

15.1

11.7

5.2

3.1

2.9

2.5

Pay Back Period

26.2

19.0

8.2

4.7

4.3

3.6

Price/Book Value

FC SHEET

22

20th August 2010

(` mn)

CASH FLOW

FY07

Net profit

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

109.6

136.7

448.4

870.2

920.4

1096.9

Depreciation

95.6

111.2

139.8

155.5

180.0

220.0

Deffered Tax

19.0

29.8

23.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

-290.6

13.6

120.7

-207.2

-391.0

-503.0

-66.4

291.3

732.8

818.5

709.4

813.9

(156.5)

(288.5)

(573.9)

(444.6)

(140.0)

(408.0)

84.9

1.2

1.1

(16.6)

(240.0)

(80.0)

change in working capital


Cash Flow From Operating
Activities:
Capex
Investments (Net)
Cash Flow from Investing Activities
Dividend
Share Capital

(71.6)

(287.3)

(572.8)

(461.2)

(380.0)

(488.0)

(37.3)

(37.3)

(74.6)

(147.2)

(155.7)

(185.6)

3.1

Debt

155.2

164.6

(114.5)

(104.8)

41.6

120.0

Cash Flow From Financing Activities

121.0

127.3

(189.1)

(252.0)

(114.1)

(65.6)

Others

(14.9)

33.1

29.1

45.5

109.2

63.4

Net change in cash

(2.1)

98.2

(58.2)

59.8

106.1

196.9

Opening cash

66.7

64.6

162.8

104.6

164.4

270.4

Closing cash

64.6

162.8

104.6

164.4

270.4

467.3

(222.9)

2.8

158.9

373.9

569.4

405.9

Share premium received

FCF

FC SHEET

23

20th August 2010

COMPANY NOTE

VISAKHA INDUSTRIES LTD.

BUY

CMP

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

`162.75

52 week High / Low

`192.95/108.10

Equity Cap (current)

`15.92 cr

Face Value

`10

Mkt. Capitalization

`259.098 cr

Avg. Daily Vol. (12 M)

`32135 cr

BSE SENSEX

18257

NSE - NIFTY

5479

NSE Code

VISAKAIND

Bloomberg Code

VSKI IN

BSE Code

509055

Aggressive expansion in FC sheets to benefit: Visaka gets first mover


advantage to accrue additional market share in the industry boom due to
timely expansion. In the current financial year the firm has expanded its
capacity by 48000t at its Pune plant taking total capacity to 100000t at
Pune. It is further expanding its capacity by 120000t at Sambalpur pant,
which is expected to get commenced by January 2011.

Volume increase through strong brand: Ongoing expansion and


strong demand and brand name to give Visaka consistent volume growth.
We expect Visaka to increase its sales volume from 557965t in FY10 to
665000t in FY11E and 690000t in FY12E. Rising volumes with rising
realization to improve profitability of the firm by maintaining margins at
18%.

Textile boom to benefit: Visaka Industries has blended yarn division with
total capacity of 1816 spindles. The division contributes around 18% of total
turnover. Yarn prices have moved up 40% y-o-y in FY10. Due to strong
demand and capacity consolidation witnessed in the global market yarn
prices are likely to stay firm in near future. We expect the division to grow
at 20% CAGR over next two years.

Strong cash flow to fund capex: Visaka Industries is expected to


generate Free Cash Flow of `40cr in FY10 and `60cr in FY11E. This would
take care of its Sambalpur expansion of `41cr. Visaka is expected to repay
around `20cr debt in FY11E. However, strong cash flow is expected to
keep debt:equity ratio at 0.4:1 level.

Improving ROCE: Improving profitability and reducing debt level to


improve ROCE to 20% from 15% in FY09. Upturn in the industry cycle
ensures the sustainability of ROCE over medium term.

ATTRACTIVE VALUATION: We expect Visaka Industries to expand its


revenue at a CAGR of 15% over FY10-FY12E and earnings at a CAGR of
14% over the same period. At the current price of `163 the stock is
trading at 4xFY11E and 3.5xFY12E earnings. EV/EBIDTA of the
firm is at 3x and 2.6x of FY11E and FY12E EBIDTA respectively.
We recommend BUY at current price.

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN @ 30-06-10


Promoters

37.70%

Indian Institutions

05.06%

Public & Others

57.24%

6-MTS

YTD

1-YR

-14%

32%

41%

NIFTY

5%

14%

16%

SENSEX

4%

14%

14%

VISAKA

(` mn)
FY09

BRIEF FINANCIALS
Net Sales

FY10 FY11E FY12E

5,779.8 5,981.3 7,226.2 7,805.1

Sales growth

34.4%

EBITDA

789.5 1,088.1 1,288.0 1,362.1

PAT

359.4

572.1

684.6

729.3

EPS

22.6

36.0

43.1

45.9

P/E (x)

3.5%

20.8%

8.0%

7.2

4.5

3.8

3.5

RONW (%)

20.7%

27.0%

25.8%

22.3%

EV/EBITDA

4.1

3.2

2.8

2.6

ABHILASHA SATALE
66338900 EXT. 152
abhilasha.satale@technogroup.co.in

FC SHEET

24

20th August 2010

FINANCIALS
(` mn)

P & L A/c

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Gross Sales

4,451.9

4,595.7

6,063.5

6,393.1

7,706.2

8,325.1

Excise Duty

278.8

295.2

283.7

411.8

480.0

520.0

4,173.1

4,300.5

5,779.8

5,981.3

7,226.2

7,805.1

42.5%

3.1%

34.4%

3.5%

20.8%

8.0%

Net Sales
% Change
Raw Materials

2,374.6

2,748.9

2,958.3

3,362.2

3,726.0

4,030.0

Stock Adjustments

(17.4)

(200.5)

308.6

(258.1)

Employee Expenses

202.1

219.5

224.8

239.2

286.8

330.0

Other Mfg Exp.

157.8

167.1

247.9

311.7

375.8

405.9

37.5

42.7

64.6

67.7

72.0

78.0

Power, Oil & Fuel

240.6

242.6

259.0

295.5

433.6

468.3

Selling & Administrative Expenses

482.6

493.0

696.7

714.8

863.6

932.8

Repairs & Maintainence

Provisions & Write offs


Other Expenses - Recurring
Non Recurring
TOTAL EXPENDITURE

0.9

14.6

47.6

28.3

36.0

42.0

116.4

128.4

108.2

130.0

144.5

156.1

47.8

74.6

1.9

3,595.1

3,904.1

4,990.3

4,893.2

5,938.2

6,443.0

Operating Profit

578.0

396.4

789.5

1,088.1

1,288.0

1,362.1

% Change

21.5%

-31.4%

99.2%

37.8%

18.4%

5.8%

52.5

64.5

114.4

61.1

40.5

40.0

Other Income - Recurring

1.1

22.4

EBITDA

Non Recurrng

631.6

460.9

903.9

1,171.6

1,328.5

1,402.1

% Change

22.8%

-27.0%

96.1%

29.6%

13.4%

5.5%

Current Interest

121.7

157.2

170.2

109.3

97.0

109.0

Financial Charges

22.0

15.2

13.4

14.7

Less: Interest Capitalised


PBDT

487.9

288.5

720.3

1,047.6

1,231.5

1,293.1

Depreciation

147.6

156.6

166.0

183.9

210.0

205.0

EBIT

484.0

304.3

737.9

987.7

1,118.5

1,197.1

PBT

340.3

131.9

554.3

863.7

1,021.5

1,088.1

% Change

17.0%

-61.2%

320.2%

55.8%

18.3%

6.5%

Current Tax

91.7

57.0

173.2

284.8

336.8

358.8

Deferred Tax

11.1

(6.1)

16.1

6.8

4.7

4.3

5.6

Fringe Benefit Tax


Net Profit Before Minority Interest

232.8

76.7

359.4

572.1

684.6

729.3

% Change

20.9%

-67.1%

368.6%

59.2%

19.7%

6.5%

Minority Interest
Net Profit After Minority Interest
Extra Ordinary Items

0.1

(21.0)

(26.2)

(12.4)

232.7

97.7

385.6

584.5

684.6

729.3

0.1

(21.0)

(26.2)

(12.4)

Adjusted PAT

232.7

97.7

385.6

584.5

684.6

729.3

% Change

20.8%

-58.0%

294.7%

51.6%

17.1%

6.5%

41.6

47.6

63.5

79.4

93.0

99.1

0.6

190.6

29.1

295.9

492.7

591.6

630.2

Dividend - Equity
Preference
Retained Earnings

FC SHEET

25

20th August 2010

(` mn)

BALANCE SHEET

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Share Capital - Equity

158.8

158.8

158.8

158.8

158.8

158.8

Preference
Reserves & Surplus
Revaluation Reserve
Others
Minority Interest
Secured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Unsecured Loans - Long Term
Short Term
Deferred Tax Liabilities

1,400.2

1,433.7

1,718.7

2,198.1

2,789.7

3,420.0

1,689.2

1,815.7

1,508.3

1,165.5

1,165.5

1,165.5

172.5

164.8

179.2

454.8

250.0

250.0

103.9

102.7

121.9

126.2

62.0

3,524.6

3,675.7

3,686.9

4,103.4

4,426.0

4,994.3

2,688.3

2,699.6

3,123.4

3,309.8

3,750.0

4,050.0

826.2

977.3

1,140.9

1,232.2

1,442.2

1,647.2

Net Block

1,862.1

1,722.3

1,982.5

2,077.6

2,307.8

2,402.8

Capital WIP

35.0

372.7

105.1

91.6

130.0

50.0

12.5

22.2

23.0

31.0

35.0

Inventories

799.6

940.6

899.7

1,166.7

1,420.0

1,570.0

Debtors

473.7

536.5

531.3

507.6

690.0

780.0

Advances

633.4

635.9

659.2

782.6

840.0

960.0

1,906.7

2,113.0

2,090.2

2,456.9

2,950.0

3,310.0

408.5

476.7

503.1

571.9

630.0

830.0

327.0

370.0

474.6

589.0

690.0

190.0

1,171.2

1,266.3

1,112.5

1,296.0

1,630.0

2,290.0

442.9

308.5

455.6

608.7

318.2

210.5

1.3

6.3

9.4

6.5

9.0

6.0

3,525.0

3,676.1

3,687.3

4,103.4

4,426.0

4,994.3

Total Liabilities
Gross Block
Less Accumulated Depreciation
Less Impairment of Assets

Lease Adjustments
Investments
Current assets, Loans & Advances

Total Current Assets


Less Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Asssets
Cash & Bank
Miscelleneous Exp. Not w/f
Deffered Tax Asset
Total Assets

FC SHEET

26

20th August 2010

EXPENSE ANALYSIS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Raw Material / Net Sales

56.9%

63.9%

51.2%

56.2%

51.6%

51.6%

Raw Material adjusted / Net Sales

59.3%

56.5%

51.9%

51.6%

51.6%

0.0%

5.8%

5.6%

4.5%

4.9%

6.0%

6.0%

Power & Fuel / Net Sales


Employee Exp. / Net Sales

4.8%

5.1%

3.9%

4.0%

4.0%

4.2%

Other Mfg Exp./ Net Sales

3.8%

3.9%

4.3%

5.2%

5.2%

5.2%

S & D/ Net Sales

11.6%

11.5%

12.1%

12.0%

12.0%

12.0%

Raw Material / Net Sales

56.9%

63.9%

51.2%

56.2%

51.6%

51.6%

MARGIN ANALYSIS

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Operating Margin(%)

13.9%

9.2%

13.7%

18.2%

17.8%

17.5%

EBITDA Margin(%)

15.1%

10.7%

15.6%

19.6%

18.4%

18.0%

PBDT Margin(%)

11.7%

6.7%

12.5%

17.5%

17.0%

16.6%

EBIT Margin(%)

11.6%

7.1%

12.8%

16.5%

15.5%

15.3%

PBT Margin(%)

8.2%

3.1%

9.6%

14.4%

14.1%

13.9%

Adjusted PAT Margin(%)

5.6%

2.3%

6.7%

9.8%

9.5%

9.3%

13.9%

9.2%

13.7%

18.2%

17.8%

17.5%

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

75.9

99.2

109.3

133.3

167.0

205.5

DPS

2.6

3.0

4.0

5.0

5.9

6.2

EPS

14.7

4.8

22.6

36.0

43.1

45.9

Adjusted EPS

14.7

6.2

24.3

36.8

43.1

45.9

Operating Margin(%)
ANALYSIS INPUTS
Book Value Per Share

CEPS

24.0

14.7

33.1

47.6

56.3

58.8

10.5%

9.8%

10.7%

9.5%

4.5%

1.6%

1.6

1.6

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.9

28.3%

46.5%

32.3%

33.0%

33.0%

33.0%

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Current Ratio (Times)

3.2

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.5

3.5

Debt Equity Ratio (Times)

1.2

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

Interest Coverage Ratio(Times)

3.1

1.6

3.2

6.4

8.1

7.7

Return On Average Net Worth(%)

19.3%

4.9%

20.7%

27.0%

25.8%

22.3%

Dividend Payout (%)

17.9%

62.1%

17.7%

13.9%

13.6%

13.6%

1.6%

1.8%

2.5%

3.1%

3.6%

3.8%

8.3

8.1

11.1

10.0

9.8

20.0

Cash As a % Of Total Exp.


Net Sales/ Gross Block (Times)
Current Tax (%)
DEBT EQUITY RATIO (TIMES)

Dividend Yield (%)


Debtors Turnover(Times)
Creditors Turnover(Times)

9.8

9.0

11.0

9.5

10.5

11.0

Inventory Turnover (Times)

4.8

4.7

5.6

4.6

4.8

9.9

Average Collection period (Days)

44.2

45.3

32.8

36.5

37.1

18.2

Average Payment period (Days)

37.4

40.8

33.3

38.4

34.9

33.2

Inventory Turnover (DAYS)

76.1

78.1

65.2

78.9

75.5

36.7

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

11.1

33.7

7.2

4.5

3.8

3.5

Price/CEPS

6.8

11.1

4.9

3.4

2.9

2.8

Price/Book Value

2.1

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.0

0.8

PRICE/ADJUSTED EPS
P/E

EV/EBITDA

6.0

8.2

4.2

3.2

2.8

2.7

Pay Back Period

9.9

16.1

7.2

5.0

4.2

4.0

FC SHEET

27

20th August 2010

(` mn)

CASH FLOW

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11E

FY12E

Net profit

232.7

97.7

385.6

584.5

684.6

729.3

Depreciation

147.6

156.6

166.0

183.9

210.0

205.0

Deffered Tax

11.1

-6.1

16.1

6.8

0.0

0.0

-457.7

-95.1

153.8

-183.5

-334.0

-660.0

Cash Flow From Operating


Activities:

-66.3

153.1

721.5

591.7

560.6

274.3

Capex

547.5

349.0

156.2

172.9

478.6

220.0

12.4

-12.5

22.2

0.8

8.0

4.0

Cash Flow from Investing Activities

559.9

336.5

178.4

173.7

486.6

224.0

Dividend

-42.2

-47.6

-63.5

-79.4

-93.0

-99.1

27.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

change in working capital

Investments (Net)

Share Capital

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

Debt

352.7

118.8

-293.0

-67.2

-204.8

0.0

Cash Flow From Financing Activities

337.6

71.2

-356.5

-146.6

-297.8

-99.1

Others

580.9

695.2

396.3

465.7

1039.9

506.9

Net change in cash

250.3

-134.4

147.1

153.1

-290.5

-107.7

Opening cash

192.6

442.9

308.5

455.6

608.7

318.2

Closing cash

442.9

308.5

455.6

608.7

318.2

210.5

Share premium received

FC SHEET

28

20th August 2010

Corporate Office:
Manu Mansion, 2nd Floor, 16, Shahid Bhagatsingh Marg, Fort, Mumbai 400 001. Tel. 91-226633 8900 / 2261 8787 / 4027 8900
Fax No. 91-22 2269 0041

Email: research@technogroup.co.in

website: www.technoworld.in

Strictly for Private Circulation only. All rights reserved. Techno Shares & Stocks Ltd
DISCLAIMER: This information & opinions in this report have been prepared by TECHNO SHARES & STOCKS LTD. The report & the
information contained herein are strictly confidential and meant solely for the authorized recipient and may be restricted by law or regulation in
certain countries. This report is for information purposes only for the authorized reader and does not construe to be any investment, legal or
taxation advice. This report is based on the information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, however, no warranty,
express or implied, are given for the accuracy or correctness of the same and it should not be construed as such. It is also not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instrument.
Techno Shares & Stocks Ltd and/or its subsidiaries and/or directors, employees, officers or associates including the persons involved in the
preparation/issuance of this report may have (a) from time to time, any interest or positions (buy/sell etc.) financial (including in
derivatives/commodities market) or otherwise in the companies/securities covered/mentioned in this report and may have acted upon the
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should rely on their own investigations and analysis & seek professional advice. Any action taken by any one solely on the basis of the information
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form or in any media, without the previous written consent of Techno Shares & Stocks Ltd.

FC SHEET

29

20th August 2010

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