SPE 61269 Energy and Environment: The Dilemma of Global Warming

Ravi P. Sinha, Elizabeth City State University

Copyright 2000, Society of Petroleum Engineers Inc. This paper was prepared for presentation at the SPE International Conference on Health, Safety and the Environment in Oil and Gas Exploration and Production held in Stavanger, Norway, 2628 June 2000. This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE Program Committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper, as presented, have not been reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to correction by the author(s). The material, as presented, does not necessarily reflect any position of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, its officers, or members. Papers presented at SPE meetings are subject to publication review by Editorial Committees of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Electronic reproduction, distribution, or storage of any part of this paper for commercial purposes without the written consent of the Society of Petroleum Engineers is prohibited. Permission to reproduce in print is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words; illustrations may not be copied. The abstract must contain conspicuous acknowledgment of where and by whom the paper was presented. Write Librarian, SPE, P.O. Box 833836, Richardson, TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435.

done for climate control with little or insignificant impact on the economy. Introduction An inexpensive and abundant supply of energy has been one of the foundations of modern civilization which has allowed it to move forward from subsistence agriculture to our present postindustrial stage. From productions and preservations of farm products to communication, transportation and the alleviation of physical miseries, the availability of abundant, inexpensive energy has played a vital role in the development and sustaining of the worlds various cultures. As a consequence of this easy energy access, energy dependence has now increased to the extent that it requires on the average, about five calories of energy to be burned in order to produce one calorie of food.1 This very growth in energy consumption, which has helped us develop even more complex civilizations, now threatens the very life supporting systems within which these civilizations exist. A growing perception and awareness of ecological problems, which is beginning to be supported by scientific evidence, lead us to conclude that our energy-intensive activities threaten the ecological balance within which we exist. The impact of such an imbalance, if unchecked, could likely lead to significant detrimental consequences. If we look at the main environmental problems, e.g. climatic variations, acid rain, depletion of ozone layers, nuclear waste disposal problems, and the radioactive fallout of industrial nuclear accidents, we find that all are global in their impact, and all are related to the development and consumption of energy.2 We therefore need to evaluate the management of our energy resources, and to modify our activities in such a way that they become harmonious with our ecosystem. Solutions to these energy-related environmental problems lie in understanding and recognizing the specific impacts which each of them have on our ecological systems, and then managing their use accordingly. A balanced, realistic view of the environment which neither wallows in doom and gloom pessimism, nor avoids serious problems with unwarranted optimism, is essential to ensure the sustainability of the worlds environment. Towards this end, the intelligent application of science and technology may identify potential solutions to many of these problems.

Abstract About eighty-five (85%) percent of the current U.S. energy needs are met by fossil fuels, and therefore they play a very important role in our energy supply. In recent years, these primary sources of energy have come under vigorous attack based on the observation that the changes in the earths climate might be altered by the increasing concentration of certain gases in the atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide. Though the degree and extent of their impact is uncertain, the primary sources of these gases are found to be auto emissions and utility companies burning coal. Geological records show that climate of the earth in the past has indeed undergone changes due to natural causes. These natural causes, however, are very slow, extending over millions of years and are therefore insignificant. Climatic variations due to anthropogenic causes are going to have an impact, if any, over a much shorter time period (50-100 years) and therefore are of concern. One of the concerns, is that even with a small increase in the average temperature of the earth, its effect in the polar regions would be much greater than elsewhere and therefore the global impact of any warming will be greater. The challenge, therefore, is to find a way to reduce the impact of human activities on the climate, without jeopardizing the economies of both the industrialized and the developing countries. Our dependence on oil and coal as a means of providing energy in the forseable future is going to continue. Our challenge, therefore, is to find a harmonious balance between the environmental and economic factors. The Kyoto Protocol is scary for most of the industrialized world because of the fear of its impact on the economy. Given what the scientists know today, some solutions are presented as to what can be

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Understanding the depletion of the ozone layer, for example, came only as a result of technological advancement in the fields of atmospherics. Similarly, technology is helping us immensely in our attempts to understand global climatic variations. Technology is a neutral tool which, when carefully used, may enable us to harness the benefits of nature without tampering with its natural balance. Effect of Greenhouse Gases on Climate There is an overwhelming technological evidence that there is a discernable anthropogenic influence on global climate, indicating a warming trend.3 In recent years, the projection of global mean temperature change and sea level rise confirm the potential for human activities to alter the earths climate to the level and extent unprecedented in human history. For a long time, there has been suspicion in the minds of the scientists whether human activities could have impact on the global climate. While the weather umbrellas over industrialized cities were known to climatologists for quite some time, it was not until the early 1960's that there was convincing evidence that human activities were indeed changing the composition of the atmosphere. In the 1970's and 1980's the National Academy of Sciences convened several panels and committees which reported that a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration could potentially raise the global average temperature by 1.5oC to 4.5oC and shift rain belts poleward. In 1988 the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change assumed responsibility for conducting an assessment of the global climate change and its consequences. In 1989 U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established to coordinate and strengthen there activities, which published the Forum on Global Change Modeling in July 1995.4 There is general agreement among scientists now that the temperature changes would be in the range of 1.66 to 2oC in the next 50 years or so. However, one of the biggest problems faced by the climatologists is that even a small increase in the average temperature of the earth, say 0.6oC, is expected to cause the temperatures in the polar regions rise three to four times, the average temperature and therefore the impact of warming will be much greater than originally envisioned. In addition, the climatic variations due to global warming could be significant, resulting in flooding of the coastal areas worldwide due to sea-level rise. The fear that their homelands may vanish is deeply embedded in the minds of thousands of small island dwellers whose homelands consists of small tiny islands stretching over thousands of square miles in the Pacific. Computer models also predict that as the climatic variations become more pronounced, it will cause the major part of the U.S. drier and West Africa wetter. A wetter West Africa will result in a substantial increase of hurricanes on the eastern sea board of the United States.5 Additional global problems related to the warming temperature includes decline in food production, and water supplies, increase in heat waves, and spread of malaria due to flooding of the low lying areas of the world such as Bangladesh.

Climatic Changes in the Past One of the major challenges facing the scientists today is to predict the climatic changes over the next 100 to 500 years. In the process of doing so, scientists have observed that the global climate has indeed varied in the past but they have been caused by several natural causes spread over millions of years over which we have no control. Among the most pronounced is the climatic variations due to plate motions. It has been well documented by geologists that about 200 million years ago, parts of Africa, South America, India and Australia were glaciated and covered with ice. It was a puzzle for a long time until Wegener in 1918 constructed a new map of the world showing that about 200 million years ago, these continents were together surrounding the Antarctica and that the ice covered areas were simply an extension of the Antarctic ice over these continents (Figure 1). With time, as the continental plates moved away from the poles, the climate of these continents got warmer and warmer. These motions however, are very slow, on the average about 2 cm per year and therefore, it takes about 30-50 million years before the climate of a place will change to any significant extent. While we cannot do anything about the plate motion, any climatic change due to plate motion is not related to the present discussion of global warming because of the long time (30 - 50 million years) that it takes to bring about any perceivable change in the global climate. In addition to the plate motion, Milankovitch observed that the variations in the motion of the earth around the sun could also be responsible for climatic variations.6 He observed that the motion of the earth around the sun varies in three different ways, causing changes in the angle of inclination of the earth toward the sun.

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Energy and Environment: The Dilemma of Global Warming

These are (i) Eccentricity where in the earth changes its path around the sun in an oscillating fashion, the cycle of oscillation being estimated to be 100,000 years (ii) obliguity, which is the variations in the plane in which the earth rotates around the sun, the cycle of which has been estimated to be 23,000 years and (iii) Wobbling. The earth wobbles as it rotates around its axis, the cycle of which, is estimated to be about 41,000 years (Figure 2). As the amount of solar radiation received by any particular region of the earth varies with the inclination of the earth toward the sun, the climate of the region also varies in proportion to the amount of radiation received. It appears that such climatic variations are possible only after several thousands of years, the next nearest cycle being about 5,000 years away. As an example, it is now well established that the Indus Valley civilizations of Mohenzedaro and Harappa, which flourished more than 3000 B.C., were wiped out due to climatic changes, caused by the variations in the solar radiation. Thus any impact of the variations in the solar radiation is on a much larger cycle of several thousand years and is not of any immediate concern to us. In addition to the above two, variations in the solar radiation due to sun

Fig. 3Greenhouse Gas Contribution to Global Warming

The two predominant greenhouse gases in the troposphere are carbon dioxide controlled by the global carbon cycle and water vapor, controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Over the past about 150,000 years, levels of water vapor in the troposphere have remained fairly constant, while those of carbon dioxide has fluctuated by a factor of two. Measured atmospheric levels of the other dominant greenhouse gases, nitrous oxide and CFCs and methane have also risen in the last few decades. The most dominant of them, of course, is CO2 which is responsible for about half of the greenhouse effect (Figure 3). Most of the increased levels of greenhouse gases have come from human activities primarily, the burning of fossil fuels, use of CFCs and deforestation.

Fig. 2Variations in the rotation of the Earth around the sun.

spots, varies by about 0.1% due to sunspot cycles of about 11, 22 and 80 years. Their impact on global climate is inconclusive. Most climatologists believe that the effect of greenhouse gases outweigh the impact of sunspots. The above two motions e.g. plate motion and the motion of the earth around the sun, which have impact on our climate are often confused with the climatic variations considered to be caused by the anthropogenic causes. But the cycles of climatic variations caused by human activities are much smaller, in the range of 50-100 years and, therefore any change in climate brought about by anthropogenic causes will have an impact in the very near future affecting ours and our childrens lives.

The concentration of CO2 has been measured since 1958 on Mount Mauna in Hawaii and it is observed that the concentration of CO2 has been increasing at an unprecedented rate (Figure 4). It has been confirmed that this increase in CO2 is mainly due to the anthropogenic activities and that the industrial countries account for more than 50% of this greenhouse gas. The main sources of these are fossil fuels (67%) and deforestation and other forms of land burning and clearing about 33%.8 United States is the largest emitter of all greenhouse gases (18.4% of global emissions), followed by the former Soviet Union (13.5%), China (9.1%), Japan (4.7%), India (4.1%), Brazil (3.9%) and Germany (3.4%).9 Industrialized Countries under Pressure More than 50% of the CO2, the main gas contributing towards the greenhouse effect, is emitted by the industrialized countries of the world, therefore, while in conferences and committees the rhetoric by the industrialized countries

Relationship between Global Warming and CO2 Analysis of air bubbles trapped in different levels of ice core show that estimated variations in mean global surface temperature over the last 150,000 years correlates strikingly with changes in the troposphere levels of carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas.7

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Fig. 4 Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the atmosphere, Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.

continues with finger pointing towards the developing world, they all know that solutions to the problem of global warming will require some significant measures on their part. The fear is that any measure, if not planned properly, could have a damaging effect on the economy. Therefore, while agreements are made, including the one at the Kyoto Conference, the inability to do anything about it becomes very obvious when one looks at the increases in the consumption of fossil fuels in the industrialized countries and the public apathy about it as evidenced by the increase in the consumptions of energy and the sale of gas guzzlers like SUVs in North America. It is obvious that industrialized countries of the world are facing an uphill battle in trying to convince the consumers as well as the industry that the effects of global warming will not be restricted to the underdeveloped countries but will be felt worldwide. There is also a very strong fear that the solutions so far suggested including the proposals and agreements at the Kyoto conference will have a significant dampening effect on the economy. The Americans are particularly worried about it because for the first time in more than forty years, the people are enjoying a healthy economy and nobody is willing to do anything, which will have a retarding effect on the economy. Some recommendations, therefore, are made here, both for developed and developing countries, which will help amelio rate or even eliminate the undesirable effects on our environment. I do not believe that there is a single best set of solution for sustaining the earth. Nature has a variety of life forms and a balance exists within this biodiversity. Similarly, we need to promote and preserve culture, political and economic diversity, which may give us the ability to respond to the changing environment. Possible Solutions to Problems related to Global Warming Industrialized Countries. The primary sources of CO2 are found to be auto emissions and utility companies burning coal to produce electricity.8

A review of the processes that are responsible for global warming show that while there is considerable rhetoric, very little has actually been done, which will help reduce the global warming. The important sources of greenhouse gases are fossil fuels and to some extent CFCs and methane. About eighty -five (85%) percent of current energy for the U.S. comes from fossil fuels, i.e. oil, natural gas and coal. These fossil fuels have played and are still playing a significant role in providing energy supply to this country. Globally also fossil fuels, oil and natural gas provide about 63% of all energy used with coals share of the energy market being 34%. (Fig. 5). Coal, inspite of its abundance worldwide, has not been able to make a significant in road in the energy market in the U.S. and elsewhere because of its inability to penetrate the transportation sector of the industry.

Fig. 5Worldwide Energy Consumption

But inspite of the coals inability to enter the transportation sector, about 75% of the coal in the United States is used by the utility companies to generate electricity. Honorable Kathleen A. McGinty, Senior environmental policy advisor to President Clinton argues that the monopoly structure of the electric utility companies has discouraged the efficient use of fossil fuels by them. She states that the efficiency of the utility industry has been locked at only 33% since late 50's - inspite of the availability of significantly more efficient, and less polluting technologies.10 It can be seen from the figure that coal fired plants that produce electricity generates about five times more CO2 than natural gas. (Figure 6) Inefficient fuel use by electric generating facilities has dramatic implications for the nation, especially in the area of climate change and air pollution. The fact that two thirds of the energy is wasted in the conversion process is appalling. We need to find ways to at least reduce, if not eliminate that situation. Over the last two hundred years, we have shown that we are very creative and once we take up an issue seriously, we are able to solve it. The problem, therefore, is for the public to become aware of the situation.. People need to be cognizant of the fact that inspite of being the strongest nation on earth, the OPEC is able to twist our muscles as they

SPE 61289

Energy and Environment: The Dilemma of Global Warming

Fig. 6Carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy produced by various fuels, expressed as percentages of emissions produced by coal.

wish and there is not much we can do about it. Almost every concerned citizen here realizes that the Desert Storm was not for the liberation of Kuwait but for the security of oil and, yet, there is complete apathy about any attempt to reduce the oil consumption. But citizens should be asked as to how many times they can send their GIs, which include their brothers and sisters, to Middle East, so that we could drive our gas guzzlers and what is the price that we pay for going to such wars. Public awareness to reduce our consumption of oil is important. Both the government and industry can play a very important role in it. While most may still have apprehension about the global warming, the awareness of the other consequences of being dependent on imported oil can help kill more than two birds in one shot. A reduction in gas consumption by simply making more efficient automobiles would have a dramatic impact on total CO2 emission in the atmosphere. In addition, incentives are to be provided to explore the possibilities of all alternative sources of energy. While thinking of alternatives, the main thrust in the 60s and 70s was on nuclear energy. The importance of end utilization of the nuclear energy was somewhere lost in the euphoria of clean and abundant energy. The nuclear energy is now frozen in the United States and most of the European countries. No new plant has been built in the U.S. since 1978. The reasons being that nuclear energy cannot be used in the transportation sector, where more than 60% of the oil is consumed and the problem of the disposal of nuclear waste is a national issue. Not in my backyard has become a national slogan. Nuclear energy thus is not going to be a viable alternative source in the near future.11

It is therefore imperative that our government provide an important thrust by providing incentives to the real (non carbon-based) alternative sources of energy. The benefits of these alternative sources are plentiful: (i) over-dependence on oil and nuclear energy will be reduced; (ii) they are environmentally compatible, and (iii) most of them are less capital intensive. Some of these sources like the wind, solar, tidal, ocean (OTEC), geothermal, biomass, etc. are beyond the research stage and are struggling for little incentives to be able to take off. For example, with incentives from the Government, Amoco, in collaboration with another company, is setting up a $2 billion solar plant in Rajasthan, western India. Incentives can be provided by our governments by allowing them tax incentives to develop these alternative sources of energy on a commercial scale. An appropriate blend of these alternative resources can indeed relieve us from our dependence on coal and diminishing and highly risky oil supply. The number of times that we can send half a million people to the Middle East to protect our interests is limited. The tax burden of such endeavors is also very heavy. In addition to these known sources, vigorous research must be carried out to look beyond the horizon for alternative, noncarbon based sources of energy. It has been mans dream to have his own chariot ever since the invention of the wheel, more than 5,000 years ago. It would be prudent to hold on to our smooth-running chariots by finding alternative sources of energy to run them. CO2 reduction must begin now, if we want to reduce the impact of the greenhouse effect.
Developing and Underdeveloped Countries. The traffic congestions in Shanghai, Beijing, Delhi, Mumbai (Bombay) and Calcutta is something to be seen to be believed and yet automobile production in these developing countries keeps increasing. U.S. automobile companies are increasing their production in China and Indians are very proud to learn that the production of automobiles in their country exceeded half a million in 1999. All the major auto makers are competing to set up auto manufacturing plants in China and India. Nobody seems to be concerned about its local or global impact. As one newspaper said, breathing air in Mumbai was like smoking two packs of cigarettes a day. And Delhi, I found out that it was something like smoking five packs of cigarettes a day. The same situation was observed in Bejing and Shanghai. And yet, the transportation problem still remains as bad as fifty-years ago. The overpopulated developing world must realize that automobiles are not the solution for their transportation problems that they face in overpopulated cities. But automobiles, like nuclear bombs have become a symbol of technological and industrial achievements and national pride takes over rational thinking. Furthermore, both China and India now import a good percentage of oil that they consume. In 1999, India paid about 14 billion dollars to pay for imported oil , which is a huge drain on its foreign exchange. While there is no statistics for increase in asthma and other respiratory

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problems, it was obvious from the observations that there has been substantial increase in that also. There is a dire need for the governments in these developing countries to step in and provide extensive mass transit systems for the people. Mass transit that can run on electricity generated by various sources, including electricity produced by hydro. India is the largest builder of dams in the world. While it is true that the government must take care to rehabilitate people displaced by building such dams, the fact remains that hydro dams remain one of the least polluting sources for energy. Another source that needs to be seriously considered as an interim source is natural gas, directly or as LNG, which is the least polluting fossil fuel and is available globally.12 The mass transits can run on electricity generated through these sources. Furthermore, incentives should be provided to develop the alternative sources of energy in partnership with the private industry, where appropriate financial incentives are provided to the private sector, as it is in the case of nuclear industry in the U.S. With appropriate blend of these technologies, these countries can reduce their dependence on foreign oil, reduce the drain on their foreign exchange, improve considerably the quality of life by reducing air pollution and most importantly, reduce the impact on global warming by reducing the emission of CO2. This would also lead to the development of in-situ industrial base with tremendous, positive impact on the economy. In this changing global environment, it is important for the developing world to realize that it is not necessary to follow the footsteps of the so called developed world. The objective must be to look at the needs of the people, the available and potential indigenous resources and technologies and try to develop new innovations to meet these needs. Countries like Japan have shown that the creative ability can be available everywhere. Conclusions Scientific controversies are nothing new. It existed even during the Copernicus and Galileo times and the AAPG vehemently disagreed with the Wegeners idea of continental drift for a long time even in the beginning of the 20th century. The reality is that we will never have all the answers that we need so that we could take the appropriate actions. Furthermore, the issues are too complex to allow their solutions to be designed by uninformed parties or by individuals or parties with vested interests. In addition, to develop environmental policies and to see to their implementation without the benefit of available science and technology is to operate in the dark. It is therefore incumbent upon us, as scientists, industrialists, technocrats and as public servants to discuss and develop guidelines to be implemented collectively, which will ameliorate or eliminate the undesirable effects on our environment. Our obligation, both scientific/industrial and the governmental is to come together to accurately identify the environmental problems, which result from our activities and design solutions for the alleviation of

these problems. We cannot operate in this area, all by ourselves. The consequences are too great. All of us, both from the developed and developing countries should work together as a team to find the solutions. Acknowledgments I thank Dr. F.C. San Juan for the review of the manuscript and for scanning the figures. Thanks also to Mrs. Reequita B. Walston for typing the paper. References 1. Loftner, Robert L. - Energy Handbook, Van Nostrand Reinhold Co, N.Y. 2. Sinha, R.P. - Public Opinion and Nuclear Energy Policies and their Impact on Alternative Energy Planning - World Resources Review, Volume 4, No. 4. pp. 519-527. (1993) 3. Sinha, R. P., Brass, J.A., Ambrosia, V.G., Hlavka, C.A. Deforestation and Trace Gas emissions from Brazilian Cerrado - Int. Rept. NASA-Ames Research Center - 1996. 4. National Science Foundation Forum on Global Change Modeling, U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): July 1995. 5. Benarde, Melvina - Global WarmingGlobal Warning, John Wiley and Sons, N.Y., 1991 6. Tarbuck & Lutgens - The Earth, An Introduction to Physical Geology, Charles Merrill Publishing Co., Toronto, 1986. 7. Barnola, J.M., et al. - Vostok Ice Core provides 160,000 year Record of Atmospheric CO2". Nature Vol. 329, No. 6138, pp. 410. 8. World Resources Institute: Relative Contribution to Global Warming by anthropogenic releases of gases into the atmosphere, W. W. Norton & Co. 1998. 9. Miller, G. Tyler - Living in the Environment, Eighth Edition - Wadsworth Publishing Co., CA. 1998. 10. McGinty, Kathleen A. - Relationship between Energy and Environment. Circular letter: White House, April 1999. 11. Sinha, R. P., Nuclear Energy Policies, presented at the N.C. Academy of Sciences, Annual Meeting and published in Vol. 107, No. 4., 1991. 12. Swain, Edward J., LNG Imports poised to play long-term supply role - Oil and Gas Journal. Jan. 24, 2000-pp. 38-41.