Pristupne mree slijedee generacije (Next Generation Access (NGA) networks) Uvod

Throughout the world many investment projects are planned (launched, sometimes already completed) that in one way or another change the existing copper-based physical infrastructure in the local loop by deploying fibre (henceforth also called deep fibre), and, thus, bringing more bandwidth to end users in the business and the residential mar et! "layers in this respect are both incumbents and competitors deploying #ext $eneration %ccess (#$%) networ s! &et, the fibre deployment ventures in more or less all countries are not ubi'uitous from a geographical perspective, rather, they usually are geographically focused, i!e! fibre is deployed first and foremost in densely populated areas! %gainst the bac drop of the current regulated copper-based mar et situation deployment of fibre in the local loop brings about new issues with regard to competition in the telecommunications sector! This is the case e!g! due to technological characteristics of fibre infrastructures and economic characteristics of fibre based business models! The present study is motivated by two important 'uestions( ) *hat are the (technological, economic, mar et etc!) conditions that ma e a fibre deployment in the access networ viable (in a sense to be made precise) in a given area, provided the investor is the first mover+ ) *hat are the conditions that enable a second, third, , mover to follow suit, i!e! to secure the viability of his business case for the deployment of fibre infrastructure in the access networ (when the first mover is already there)+ To this end, we have developed a generic business model! This model on the one hand enables the assessment of the viability of next generation access business models! -n the other hand it assesses the extent to which a second or third mover could replicate the first mover.s investment and provides the opportunity to derive conditions (in particular regulated wholesale services) that allow further entry to achieve viable competition! /t can be ta en for granted that the viability of a business model for deep fibre deployment in a specific area (within a given country) rests heavily on particular conditions within this area! 0actors include e!g! demographic patterns (e!g! number of people or households, population density), existing communications networ infrastructures (e!g! number of main distribution frames, number of street cabinets), prices for digging up streets, and existing other networ infrastructures (e!g! sewage

channels that can be used to deploy fibre infrastructure to avoid digging)! 1owever, as the term generic suggests, the model structure and logic itself is independent from the conditions in a specific country or area! 2ather, the model re'uires to feed in real world data about a country or area in order to generate actual empirical results (which are then country3area specific)! There are already several studies that focus on various facets of fibre deployment in the access networ ! 4i ewise, there are already several models available which are focusing in one way or another on the viability of deep fibre deployment! /n the present study we cover all of these aspects, i!e! we review the relevant literature and models (to the extent that descriptions of the models are available), we analyse actual fibre deployment approaches in several countries in and outside 5urope, we present the main features of our model and we apply this model to generate empirical results for altogether six 5uropean countries ($ermany, 0rance, /taly, "ortugal, 6pain, 6weden)! 0rom a methodological perspective our study rests on several pillars( 0irst, there is des research of published studies and existing models! 6econd, we have carried out specific country studies! Third, we have conducted interviews with experts from 57T% members, #2%s and other sta eholders who in particular have provided data on the six 5uropean countries for which this study presents actual empirical evidence! 0ourth, we rely on our own long standing expertise with cost model development! 2egarding the empirical evidence provided in this report for the six 5uropean countries we have to underline an important fact of life( model results can only be as good as the data on which the model is based! 6ubstantial parts of the data used in this study has been provided by mar et participants from the different countries! /t is, however, worth stressing that there are still information asymmetries in all of these national mar ets across the mar et participants with respect to data for critical parameters and variables of the model! To be more precise, very often regulators and competitors do not have full information about networ characteristics of the incumbent which are relevant for the model (e!g! number of street cabinets, sub-loop lengths etc!)! *e have provided the model infrastructure which enables mar et participants and regulators to derive model results with different parameter sets, which they perhaps regard more realistic!

-verall in this study, data about actual developments in mar ets has been ta en into account of up to the end of 8ay3beginning of 9une :;;<! The report is organi=ed as follows! 7hapter : focuses on a literature review! 7hapter > is devoted to studies of four non-5uropean countries! /n this chapter we address their specific approaches and experiences with deployment of fibre in the local loop! /n 7hapter ? the actual model building is described! 7hapter @ contains our model results on the viability of replication of AB6430TT7 infrastructure as well as deployment of 0TTC31 "-# and "oint-to-"oint infrastructure for a selection of six 5uropean countries( $ermany, 0rance, /taly, "ortugal, 6pain, 6weden! 7hapter D contains our conclusions and recommendations!
Diljem svijeta mnogi investicijski projekti planirani su (pokrenula, ponekad ve dovren) da se u jedan ili drugi nain mijenjati postojei bazi bakra fizike infrastrukture u lokalnoj petlji implementacijom vlakana (u daljnjem tekstu nazivaju "duboko vlakna "), i, tako, donosei vie irina pojasa za krajnje korisnike u poslovanju i stambene tritu !grai u tom pogledu su i namjetenika i natjecatelja uvo"enju "#e$t %eneration &ccess" (#%&) mree !pak, vlakna implementaciju ulaganja u vie ili manje sve zemlje nisu sveprisutni iz zemljopisnog perspektive, umjesto toga, oni obino geografski usmjerene, tj vlakno je angairan prvi i prije svega u gusto naseljenim podrujima 'rotiv pozadina od trenutne regulirane bazi bakra situacija na tritu implementacije vlakana u lokalnoj petlji donosi o novim problemima u odnosu na konkurenciju u telekomunikacijskom sektoru (o je sluaj npr zbog te)nolokog svojstva vlakana infrastrukture i ekonomske karakteristike vlakana na temelju poslovne modele *va studija je motiviran dva vana pitanja+ , -oji su (te)noloke, ekonomske, trine, itd ), stvaranje uvjeta koji vlakana razmjetaj u pristupne mree odrivi) (u smislu da se preciznije) u odre"enom podruju, pod uvjetom da investitor je "prvi pokreta". , -oji su uvjeti koji omoguuju drugi, trei, pokreta da slijedite odijelo, tj osigurati odrivost njegovog poslovnog sluaja za implementaciju vlakana infrastrukture u pristupne mree (kada je prvi pokreta je ve tamo). / tu svr)u smo razvili generiki poslovni model *vaj model s jedne strane omoguuje procjenu odrivosti sljedee generacije pristup poslovnim modelima #a 0 druge strane ocjenjuje u kojoj je mjeri drugi i trei pokreta mogla ponoviti prvi pokreta ulaganja i prua priliku za izvo"enje uvjetima (u odre"enu reguliranu veleprodaja usluge) koji omoguuju daljnji) unosa kako bi se postigla odriva natjecanja (o se moe uzeti zdravo za gotovo da je odrivost poslovni model za duboko vlakana implementacije u odre"enom podruju (u odre"enoj zemlji) poiva uvelike na pojedinim uvjetima na tom podruju 1aktori su npr demografske uzoraka (npr broj osobe ili kuanstva, gustoa stanovnitva), postojee komunikacijske mree infrastrukture (npr broj glavni) distribucije okvira, broj ulice ormaria), cijene za iskopavanje ulice, a postojee "drugi" mrene infrastrukture (npr kanalizacija kanala koji se mogu koristiti za implementaciju vlakana infrastrukturu kako bi se izbjeglo kopanje) 2e"utim, kako !zraz "openito" sugerira, model struktura i logika sama je neovisna od uvjetima u pojedinoj zemlji ili podruju /mjesto toga, model za)tijeva da na)rani u stvarnom svijetu podaci o zemlji ili podruju, kako bi se generirati stvarne empirijski) rezultata (koji su onda zemlja 3 podruje odre"ene) 'ostoji ve nekoliko studija koje se fokusiraju na razliite aspekte implementacije vlakana u pristupne mree !sto tako, postoji ve nekoliko modela koji su dostupni fokusiranje na ovaj ili onaj nain na odrivost duboko vlakana implementacije

/ ovom istraivanju smo pokriti sve ove aspekte, tj razmatramo relevantne literature i modela (u mjeri u kojoj opisima modeli su dostupni), analiziraju stvarni vlakana implementacije pristupa u nekoliko zemalja i izvan 4urope, smo predstaviti glavne znaajke naeg modela i mi primijeniti ovaj model za generiranje empirijski) 5ezultati za ukupno est europski) zemalja (#jemaka, 1rancuska, !talija, 'ortugal, 6panjolska, 6vedska) !z perspektive naeg istraivanja metodoloki poiva na nekoliko stupova+ 'rvo, tu je stol istraivanja objavljeni) studija i postojei) modela Drugo, moramo provesti odre"enoj zemlji studije (ree, proveli smo intervjue sa strunjacima iz 47(& lanova, nacionalna regulatorna tijela i druge dionike koji u pojedinim dali podatke o est 4uropski) zemalja za koje ovo istraivanje predstavlja stvarni empirijskim dokazima 8etvrto, mi osloniti na vlastite dugogodinje iskustvo s cijenom modela razvoja 6to se tie empirijski) dokaza u ovom izvjeu za est europski) zemalja moramo naglasiti vanu injenicu ivota+ modela rezultati mogu biti dobar kao podataka na kojima se temelji model 9naajni dijelovi podataka koriteni) u ovoj studiji je pod uvjetom trini) sudionika iz razliiti) zemalja (o je, me"utim, vrijedi istiui kako jo uvijek postoje informacije asimetrija u svim tim nacionalnim tritima preko sudionici na tritu u odnosu na podatke za kritine parametre i varijable modela Da budemo precizniji, vrlo esto regulatori i natjecatelji nemaju punu informacija o mrenim znaajkama sadanjeg koji su relevantni za modela (npr broj ulice ormaria, pod petlje duljine i sl ) *sigurali smo 2odel infrastrukture koja omoguava sudionicima na tritu i regulatori za dobivanje modela rezultata s razliitim parametar postavlja, koje su moda u obzir vie realan /kupno u ovoj studiji, podaci o stvarnim kretanjima na tritima je uzeti u raun do kraja svibnja 3 poetkom lipnja :;;< !zvjee je organiziran na sljedei nain 'oglavlje : fokusira na literature 'oglavlje = je posveen studijama etiri ne>europskim zemljama / ovom poglavlju bavimo nji)ovim specifine pristupe i iskustva s implementacije vlakana u lokalnoj petlji / 'oglavlje ? stvarni modela zgrada opisano 'oglavlje @ sadri na model rezultate o odrivosti replikaciju AD0B 3 1((7 infrastrukture, kao i implementaciju 1((C 3 D '*# i 'oint>to>'oint infrastrukture za izbor est europski) zemalja+ #jemaka, 1rancuska, !talija, 'ortugal, 6panjolska, 6vedska 'oglavlje E sadri nae zakljuke i preporuke

1. Analiza optike na posljednjoj milji (Analysys: Fibre in the Last Mile)

%nalysys (:;;D) has constructed a simple generic model of 2-/ for an operator in a socalled typical *estern 5uropean mar et of E; million households! Assumptions /n this model it is assumed that the incumbent builds out new access networ s to D; F of households in large towns and suburbs over a four-year period! To this end, the incumbent deploys either 0TT" ($"-#) or AB64 : networ s! 13 %nalysys assumes that in year ; broadband penetration stands at ?; F of households and that it will rise to a saturation point of G@ F! The study focuses on four different demand scenarios! 0or year ; it is assumed that the telco copper and fibre accesses account for <; F of all residential broadband, the rest being cable! The mar et share of telcos in the residential broadband mar et over time is calculated endogenously in the model and varies across

the different access technologies! %nalysys assumes that a AB64 : roll-out will re'uire >;;-?;; 5uro investment costs per home passed! This cost level compares to around three times higher investment costs for 0TT" at about E,;;; 5uro for a $"-# deployment approach! The most significant cost factor for 0TT" is not the physical length of the trenches but the method chosen to deploy the fibre (aerial vs! new underground)! %nalysys assumes that the AB64 investment costs are consistent with the investment plan announced by Beutsche Tele om, which will, however, fall at the lower end of the cost spectrum! Scenarios The study is based on four scenarios comprising two dimensions (with two 'ualifiers for each dimension)( ) Bemand characteristics in the consumer mar et (receptive, resistant), ) 7ompetition in the pay-TA mar et (more, less)!
13 0or the sa e of comparison %nalysys also considers a third case, namely, the incumbent leaves the %B64 access lines in place, thus, ta ing into account that he does nothing with regard to #$% and therefore is incurring losses!

6cenario %, thus, is characteri=ed by a receptive consumer mar et and a less competitive TA mar et! 6cenario C is characteri=ed by a resistant consumer mar et and a less competitive TA mar et! 6cenario 7 is characteri=ed by a receptive consumer mar et and a more competitive TA mar et! 0inally, 6cenario B is characteri=ed by a receptive consumer mar et and a more competitive TA mar et! The best-case scenario for a telco (scenario %) is characteri=ed by a strong ta eup of multi-play services across the operator.s user base! 1owever, for such an outcome to be achieved, it is necessary to assume (E) a relatively wea pay-TA mar et and high prices that can easily be undercutH (:) no regulatory barriers for a dominant telco incumbent to provide media servicesH (>) the operator has sufficient access to premium contentH (?) an audience that is open to demand TA services from telcos! % worstcase scenario (scenario B) is defined by a competitive pay-TA mar et and a resistant consumer mar et! -verall consumer demand in this scenario is low and the payTA mar et is already near saturation! Results -nly in 6cenario %, where consumers are receptive to new services and where the payTA mar et is not competitive, does 0TT" start to pay bac within :; years, achieving

brea -even in year E@, see 0igure ?! /n this case 0TT" roll-out has a positive #"A of :I!? F of the cumulative investment after :; years (where the discount rate is set at < F)! This pay-bac time depends on %2"Js growing from EG to :@ 5uro over the period! /n all other scenarios there is no positive #"A after this time! The pay-bac of a AB64 roll-out could be G years earlier than in the 0TT" scenario (< instead of E@ years) and at a >I!? F #"A of the cumulative investment after :; years, see 0igure @! The model compares these results with the scenario that the operator does not invest in these technologies and continues its %B643%B64 :K business, thus losing customers to the existing cable operator(s)! The point at which 0TT" losses are less than doing nothing is reached in year EE!
&nalFsFs (:;;E) je konstruirao jednostavnu generiki model 5*! za operatera u tzv tipine trita zapadne 4urope od G; milijuna kuanstava 'retpostavke / ovom modelu se pretpostavlja da aktualni gradi se novi pristup mreama do E;H kuanstava u velikim gradovima i predgra"ima tijekom etiri godine / tu svr)u, sadanji raspore"uje ili 1((' (%'*#) ili AD0B : netIorks G= &nalFsFs pretpostavlja da godine ; penetracije irokopojasni) stoji na ?;H kuanstava, a da e dovesti do toke zasienja od J@H 0tudija se fokusira na etiri razliita scenarija 9a godine ; 'retpostavlja se da telco bakrene ili optike pristupa raun za <;H svi) stambene irokopojasni, ostatak kabela (rini udio telcos u stambenim irokopojasnog pristupa tritu tijekom vremena izraunava endogeno u model i varira razliiti) pristupa te)nologijama &nalFsFs pretpostavlja da AD0B : roll>out za)tijevat e =;;>?;; eura ulaganja po kui prolo *vaj troak razini uspore"uje s oko tri puta vea ulaganja trokovi za 1((' na oko G ;;; eura za pristup %'*# implementacije #ajvie znaajan faktor cijene za 1((' nije fiziki duljina rovova, ali nain izabran za implementaciju vlakana (antenski vs #ova podzemna) &nalFsFs pretpostavlja da AD0B investicijski trokovi su u skladu s investicijskim planom najavio Deutsc)e (elekom, koji e, me"utim, pada na donjem kraju trokova spektra 0cenariji !straivanje se temelji na etiri scenarija se sastoji od dvije dimenzije (s dva kvalifikacija za svaku dimenziju)+ , 'otranja obiljeja na potroakom tritu (receptivni, otporan), , #atjecanje u paF>(A trita (vie, manje) G= 9a usporedbu &nalFsFs tako"er smatra treem sluaju, naime, aktualni ostavlja &D0B pristup linije u mjestu, dakle, uzimajui u obzir da se nita u odnosu na #%& i 0toga je incurring gubitke 0cenarij, dakle, obiljeava receptivni potroaa na tritu, a manje konkurentne (A trita 0cenarij C karakterizira otporan potroaa na tritu i manje konkurentne (A trita 0cenarij 7 karakterizira receptivni potroaa tritu i konkurentnije (A tritu -onano, 0cenarij D karakterizira receptivni potroaa na tritu i konkurentnije (A tritu #ajboljem sluaju za telco (scenarij) je karakterizira snana potrajati>up multi>plaF usluga preko operatera korisnike baze 2e"utim, za takav is)od postii, potrebno je preuzeti (G) relativno slab paF tv tritu i visoke

cijene koje se lako moe podrezati, (:) ne regulatorni) prepreka za dominantnu telekomunikacijska sadanji osigurati medijski) usluga, (=) *perator ima dovoljno pristup premium sadraj, (?) publika koja je otvorena za)tijevati (A usluge s telcos #ajgorem sluaju scenarij (scenarij D) je definirana natjecateljski paF tv trita i otporan potroaa na tritu /kupni potranje potroaa u ovom scenariju je niska i paF>tv (rite je ve blizu zasienja 5ezultati 0amo u scenariju, gdje su potroai pri)vaaju nove usluge i gdje plaa> (A tritu nije konkurentna, ne 1((' poeti vratiti u roku od :; godina, postizanje break>ak i godine G@, vidi sliku ? / ovom sluaju 1((' roll>out je pozitivan neto sadanje vrijednosti :K,?H od kumulativni) ulaganja nakon :; godina (gdje je diskontna stopa je postavljen na <H) *vaj platiti natrag ovisi o &5'/s raste GJ do :@ eura vie razdoblju / svim drugim scenarijima nema pozitivan #'A nakon tog vremena 'latiti ponovo AD0B roll>out moe se J godina ranije u odnosu na 1((' scenariju (< umjesto G@ godina) i na =K,?H #0A kumulativni) ulaganja nakon :; godina, vidi 0liku @ 2odel uspore"uje ti) rezultata s scenarij da operater ne ulae u tim te)nologije i nastavlja svoj &D0B 3 &D0B : L poslovni gubi kupce postojei kabel operatora (e) (oka u kojoj 1((' gubitke manje od nita ne ini je postignut u godini GG

Figure 1 ROI on F

! deployment

The model results are mainly relevant to an incumbent.s investment decisionma ing process in an environment where cable presents a competitive challenge! The study argues that no *estern 5uropean mar et loo s ideal for widespread 0TT" roll-out in the near future! 1owever, it is claimed that the 0rench mar et comes closest to scenario % and therefore closest to a viable 0TT" rollout! -nly scenario % justifies an immediate fibre rollout! -verall, the report concludes that in most circumstances AB64 loo s to be a sensible

option at least within a timeframe of ten years! 0or AB64 roll-out, the %nalysys model shows that pay-bac time could be achieved in year <! /n all scenarios the model forecasts pay-bac within E? years, a timescale comparable with that for 0TT" in the most favourable scenario!
5ezultati modela su uglavnom odnose na sadanjeg ulaganja donose odluke procesa u okruenju u kojem kabela predstavlja konkurentski izazov 0tudija tvrdi da nema trita zapadne 4urope trai idealan za iroku 1((' roll>out u bliskoj budunosti 2e"utim, to je tvrdio da je francuskom tritu dolazi najblii scenariju i stoga najblii odriv 1((' rollout 0amo scenarij opravdava neposrednoj vlakana rollout 0ve u svemu, izvjee zakljuuje da je u veini sluajeva AD0B izgleda da se pametan mogunost barem u roku od deset godina 9a AD0B roll>out, &nalFsFs modela pokazuje da plati vratiti vrijeme bi se moglo postii u godine < / svim scenarijima modela prognoze platiti vratiti u roku od G? godina, vremenski okvir usporediva s onom za 1((' u najpovoljniji scenarij

Figure 2 ROI on "#$L deployment

2. Istra%i&anja O'(#)a (O'(#)

The -57B has recently published two reports which are of relevance to this study! /n the report "ublic rights of way for fibre deployment to the home the -57B (:;;<a) highlights the importance of rights of way for fibre deployment! 0urthermore, a comprehensive overview on the rights of way regulation in the -57B countries is presented! "olicy options are discussed shortly! % second -57B report (:;;<b) entitled Bevelopments in fibre technologies and investment from %pril :;;< analyses the use of fibre in long haul, bac haul and access networ s in particular! Betailed business models for 0TT1 are presented and the costs

of %ll-0ibre networ s are calculated! These two -57B documents provide useful analysis and viewpoints for the present study!

:!I!E "ublic rights of way for fibre deployment to the home

This -57B document prepared for the *or ing "arty on 7ommunication /nfrastructures and 6ervices "olicy highlights the importance of rights of way for fibre deployment in the access networ and access to ducts and poles! Cased on a comprehensive overview on the status of rights of way regulation in the -57B countries, the -57B develops recommendations on enhancing rights of way regulation to facilitate deployment of 0TT1! /n particular, barriers to rights of way which may slow down the pace of fibre rollout in local access networ s are examined! The -57B starts from the presumption that fibre in last mile access networ s is a ey technology and prere'uisite for future high-speed broadband connections! 0urthermore, the investment costs for fibre deployment are high because of the cost of civil wor s to construct ducts! The -57B assumes that one reason for the relatively slow pace of fibre investment in many -57B countries is the cost for rights of way and ducts or poles! 0rom a competition point of view it is important to point out that incumbents can use their existing ducts for fibre, while new entrants usually do not dispose of their own ducts in the access and bac haul segments so that they need access either to existing ducts in towns and cities or they need to obtain new rights of way to construct their own ducts! 8unicipalities play a large role in rights of way, but there are a number of other important players, including in particular utilities! 0or networ operators, problems have occurred because municipalities have in some countries considered access to rights of way as a revenue opportunity! /n certain cases municipalities have tried to use the granting of rights of way permission as a means to upgrade streets and pavements! % number of utilities often try to leverage their existing rights of way by entering into the telecommunications mar ets! 6ome local governments are also directly investing in local access networ s on the basis of different business models( they provide dar fibre, from public3private partnerships to offer services or, in some cases, become full service providers! 5very country has legal and administrative re'uirements which have to be met in order to obtain permission to deploy networ s on public property! These re'uirements may

act as a barrier to investment if they slow down investments, ma e investments more expensive, severely delay investments or act as a disincentive to investment! The -57B document exhibits four main factors to obtain rights of way permission( i!e! legal, administrative, financial, and regulatory factors which are presented in Table :! These re'uirements are presented for :; -57B countries!
*47D>a nedavno je objavio dva izvjetaja koja su od vanosti za ovo istraivanje / !zvjee "Mavna prava nain za vlakana raspore"ivanje na dom" *47D>a (:;;<a) naglaava vanost prava nain za vlakana implementacije #adalje, sveobu)vatan pregled o pravima nain regulacije u zemljama *47D>a je prikazani 'olitika opcije raspravlja uskoro Drugi izvjeu *47D>a (:;;<b) pod nazivom "5azvoj te)nologija i vlakana ulaganja "iz travnja :;;< analizira koritenje vlakana u dugo vui, back)aul i pristup mree posebno Detaljne poslovne modele za 1((D prikazani su i trokovi &ll>vlakana mree izraunavaju (a dva dokumenta *47D>a pruiti korisne analize i stajalita za ove studije : K G Mavne prava nain za vlakana raspore"ivanje na poetnu *vaj dokument *47D>a pripremljen za 5adnu skupinu o komunikaciji !nfrastrukture i usluga politika naglaava vanost prava nain za vlakana razmjetaj u pristupne mree i pristup kanalima i pola #a temelju sveobu)vatan pregled o stanju prava nain regulacije u zemljama *47D>a zemalja, *47D>a razvija preporuke na jaanje prava nain regulacije kako bi se olakalo raspore"ivanje 1((D -onkretno, prepreke prava nain koji moe usporiti dolje tempo vlakana irenje u lokalni pristup mreama se ispituju *47D>a polazi od pretpostavke da vlakana u zadnji) mrea milju pristup je klju te)nologije i preduvjet za budue )ig)>speed irokopojasne veze #adalje, investicijski trokovi za implementaciju vlakana su visoka zbog cijene gra"evinski) radova na izgraditi kanali *47D>a pretpostavlja da je jedan od razloga za relativno sporog tempa vlakana ulaganje u mnogim zemljama *47D>a je cijena za prava prolaza i kanala ili polova *d natjecanja toke gledita vano je istaknuti da namjetenici mogu koristiti svoje postojee cijevi za vlakana, dok novi lanovi obino ne raspolau svojim vlastitim kanale u pristupu i back)aul segmentima, tako da im je potrebno ili pristup postojeim kanala u gradovima ili im je potrebno za dobivanje novi) prava nain da stvaraju svoje vlastite kanalima *pine igraju veliku ulogu u prava nain, ali postoji niz drugi) vana igraa, ukljuujui posebno komunalne 9a mreni operatori, problemi dolo jer je opina u nekim zemljama smatraju pristup pravima nain kao i mogunost zarade / odre"enim sluajevima opine su pokuali koristiti davanje prava prvenstva dozvole kao sredstvo za nadogradnju ulicama i plonicima broj komunalni) se esto pokuavaju utjecati na nji)ove postojee prava nain ulaska u telekomunikacijskim tritima #eke lokalne vlasti tako"er su izravno ulau u lokalni pristup mreama na temelju razliiti) poslovni) modela+ one pruaju tamno vlakno, iz javnog 3 privatnog partnerstva ponuditi usluge ili, u nekim sluajevima, postanu punopravni usluga usluga 0vaka zemlja ima pravni i administrativni za)tjevi koji moraju biti ispunjeni da bi dobiti dozvolu za postavljanje mree na javnu imovinu (i se za)tjevi mogu djelovati kao barijera za investicije, ako se usporiti ulaganja, ulagati vie skupo, teko kanjenje ulaganja ili djelovati kao destimulativno za ulaganja *47D dokument pokazuje etiri osnovna imbenika za dobivanje prava puta dozvole+ odnosno pravne, administrativne, financijske i regulatorne imbenike koji su prikazani u tablici : (e za)tjevi su prikazani za :; zemalja *47D>a

10

Tabela 1 Re*+irements to obtain ri,hts o- .ay a//ordin, to O'(#

/n most -57B countries local governments have authority to manage public rights of way! The way in which these management rights are exercised varies widely from country to country! 2egarding legal factors the -57B discusses the following policy considerations! There is sometimes uncertainty and lac of transparency on jurisdiction and dispute resolution! -ne way to clarify jurisdiction is to confer jurisdiction for granting public rights of way to the federal3or central government either by prescribing special rules or by giving Lcode powersL to communication networ providers! *here this is not possible for constitutional or political reasons, providing more autonomy to networ providers can be useful! /n addition, providing the regulator with powers to re'uire the sharing of ducts and conferring full authority to local government to ma e the ducts of other utilities available to operators would also facilitate the roll-out of new networ s and help reduce costs! /n order to secure consistent administrative procedures, it would be helpful to set up a clear roadmap on how to obtain public rights of way permits by creating a centralised information point by using a central web portal! To prevent delay in the application process for rights of way, a system of safeguards is re'uired which ensures that deadlines for decisions concerning permits are respected! %n important factor affecting the access to rights of way is the financial cost of access to and use of rights of way! /n several countries public rights of way are not subject to payment! /n order to reduce costs in the construction of fibre to the home, the -57B concludes that governments and3or regulators should ensure that any fees associated with using public rights of way should be reduced or eliminated! The rights of way applicants should be subject to a minimum set of obligations for remediation and maintenance! 2egulatory issues( the -57B discusses two main high cost items for deploying 0TT1( civil engineering wor s and in-house wiring! These are considered as bottlenec s restricting the deployment of 0TT1! *ith regard to the in-house wiring, the -57B

11

expresses doubts that there will be more than one rolling out of in-house wiring because of costs, lac of space in cable trays and refusal of property representatives to grant access to more than one operator! /n order to facilitate competing fibre local loops, reduce costs and reduce multiple excavation and other civil wor s in municipalities the sharing of existing ducts, both those of telecommunications and cable companies, but also those of other utilities, is an important policy re'uirement! 6imilarly access to building and sharing of wiring is important to ensure effective competition in the mar et! /n order to enhance the construction of competing local loops, governments and3or regulators could( (E) 5nsure that existing framewor s for sharing of both incumbent telecommunication3cable rights of way and inside wiring are fair! (:) 5ncourage and3or oblige sharing of ducts and other rights of way both by incumbents and by other utilities that have infrastructure! (>) 5xamine whether it would be feasible to develop a framewor that would allow for 0TT1 providers to have access to the rights of way of existing municipal public utilities (water, sewer, electricity)! 6uch a framewor may only be feasible if these utilities are publicly owned! (?) Bevelop a framewor to allow for joint construction of ducts that can be shared by potential investors in 0TT1! % framewor in which municipalities are directly involved would be better in ensuring the success of rights of way projects that are mutually owned! (@) 5xamine the possibility of regulatory measures for facilitating the sharing of inside wiring among operators in multi-dwelling units! $iven the costs associated with the rollout of 0TT1, the -57B concludes that regulators and governments should ta e action to provide new entrants with improved access and to facilitate investment in municipal rights of way! The -57B also re'uests a fair consideration of aerial deployment of fibre which is considered a cost effective method of deployment! $ranting access to existing facilities is an important policy option! 6haring of new civil engineering wor s can be another relevant option! The use of dar fibre is another possible option! 5xisting administrative and financial disincentives to invest in fibre should be reviewed to reduce costs! To sum up, the -57B lists the following measures for improved access to rights of way and reduced access costs( ) 2educing barriers associated with obtaining authorisation for access to and use of rights of way! ) 5nsuring clarification of jurisdiction for both granting rights of way and settling disputes and coordination among the public authorities involved! ) 1armonising administrative procedures for access to rights of way and ensuring consistency in the application of these procedures across a country! ) Beveloping a reasonable system of compensation for access to and use of municipal public rights of way! ) 5nsuring that operators investing in ducts are subject to a minimum set of

12

obligations for remediation and maintenance! ) 5ncouraging and3or obliging sharing of ducts and other rights of way both by incumbent communication companies and by other utilities that have infrastructure! ) 5xamining the role of public-private partnerships in the deployment of dar fibre and3or third party infrastructure providers for duct sharing! ) 5xamining the possibility of regulatory measures to facilitate the sharing of inside wiring between operators in multi-dwelling units! ) Beveloping policies to construct joint ducts by new entrants!

:!I!: Bevelopments in fibre technologies and investment

-57B (:;;<b) was authored by 2udolf van der Cerg from the 8inistry of 5conomic %ffairs, The #etherlands, while he was assigned to the -57B *or ing "arty on 7ommunication /nfrastructures and 6ervices "olicy! 6ub-section :!I!:!E relates to technology and networ architecture! 6ub-section :!I!:!: addresses different business models for players in the mar et and their related investment decisions! 6ubsection :!I!:!> focuses on the business case model! :!I!:!E Technology and networ architecture aspects 0or the discussion of first mile transmission techni'ues wireless, hybrid and fibre solutions are considered! Wireless solutions The study analyses ) >$ and >!@$ mobile wireless standards( 16B"% (1igh 6peed Bownload "ac et %ccess) and 5A-B- (5volution Bata -ptimi=ed), ) fixed wireless standards (*i0i (/555 <;:!EEx) and *i8%M (/555 <;:!ED)3 *iCro (Norea version))! %ll of these solutions need high speed fixed access to their base stations, having cell si=es of less than E ilometre when supporting high speed download lin s for several customers at the same time! This leads to the need of a rather high density of broadband connections in a given geographical area to serve the antennas (e!g! based on fibre, 5E leased line, B64 or microwave radio connections)! Thus, virtually a fixed broadband networ is needed as a prere'uisite for these wireless deployments! %s the bandwidth of the radio system is shared between all users its capacity to serve users in parallel is limited, thus, their ability to cover many households as a first line technology is poor compared to fixed lines! The advantages of wireless solutions are seen in their mobility and their capacity for covering rural areas! *ireless solutions therefore are excluded from further considerations! Hybrid networks 1ybrid networ s bring fibre closer to the end customer, compared with the existing "6T# networ s, thus, shortening the copper lines and increasing the bandwidth which

13

can be transmitted! The study distinguishes the following technologies( ) xB64 (Bigital 6ubscriber 4ine), ) cable (coaxial cable for TA-distribution), and ) "owerline (based on electricity networ s) solutions! The advantage of all these solutions is that deployment rests on already existing fixed line networ s which are enhanced for broadband transmission! B64 networ s act as point-to-point networ s between each end user and the first aggregation point (where the individual wires join together) in the street cabinets! The most advanced AB64 techni'ue can transmit around @; 8bps down and >; 8bps upstream, provided the copper line length between the aggregating B64%8 (B64 %ccess 8ultiplexer) in the street cabinets and the end customer is less than ?@; metres! The maximum capacity decreases strongly and nonlinear with an increasing distance! Thus, it depends on the actual physical access networ structure to which degree the networ s are meeting capacity needs! /n order to install AB64 technology the existing copper access networ must be upgraded by installing fibre lines between the central offices and the B64%8s, by enlarging the street cabinets. space and by serving it with electrical power and air conditioning for the active B64%8 e'uipment! 1owever, deployment of AB64 could allow existing 8B0 (8ain Bistribution 0rame) locations to be phased out if there is no further need to maintain a copper line networ beyond the sub-loop! /t is foreseeable that a much lower number of new concentration points (metro core locations) are needed, which of course might be installed at previous 8B0 locations! Thus, overall there is a huge potential for financing the new investment by selling those 8B0 locations which are not needed anymore! "otential drawbac s identified by the study are that copper line lengths, while reduced, remain a constraint, that there is little room left for improvement towards higher bandwidths and that streaming content (e!g! /"-TA) might consume the downstream capacity, thus, leaving less for other applications! 7able TA networ s inherently are broadcast networ s and act as a shared medium! %ll end customers receive the same information and access the same cable! Thus, in order to enable individual communication the networ must be upgraded by electronic transmission systems, which allow the separation of individual upstream communication on a common cable and select the individual downstream information which is spread in a broadcast manner, so that each end customer only receives what is dedicated to him! *hile the system is ideally suited for TA-signal distribution its capacity for individual

14

communication is limited and depends on the amount of users being active at the same time! 0or a group of users the study identifies a typical capacity of ED; 8bps downstream (for data communications)! To overcome this disadvantage the amount of users on the same cable might be reduced by installing fibre and moving fibre nodes closer to the end customers! "owerline is mentioned to serve currently up to :G 8bps downstream and E< 8bps upstream for a group of users hoo ed upon the shared communication medium, the same power cable! This excludes /"-TA and therefore triple play product bundles! %nd even then "owerline solutions will need a more dense fibre access point distribution compared to AB64! "owerline suffers significantly from electric interference problems (receiving and transmitting), since the power cables are not shielded and were not designed as an electronic communications medium! The study states it to be too early to assess the future role of "owerline solutions in the mar et and therefore does not investigate this solution in more depth! Fibre based solutions The study identifies the following advantages of fibre as a transmission medium( ) capacity to carry nearly unlimited bandwidth, ) low latency (transmission delay) compared with satellite, ) low attenuation and dispersion, thus, low need for signal regeneration, ) good environmental characteristics, e!g! neither influences on the transmitted information by electromagnetic fields nor emission of such fields, thus, no disturbances or crosstal s between neighbouring fibres3wires, no corrosion, no influence from rain, foliage or buildings (line of sight) as with radio networ s, ) low weight and si=e, ) similar price compared to twisted pair telephone or coaxial cables! The study cites the %rthur B! 4ittle (:;;D) study estimating the future bandwidth per household to pea at @; 8bps downstream and < 8bps upstream for triple play use (telephony, data and video3TA)! There are two different approaches for deploying a 0TT1 (0ibre to the 1ome) 00 infrastructure as first mile networ ( ) 0ibre ":", ) "-# ("assive -ptical #etwor )! Coth of these technologies are built on fibre only and do not need an intermediate active networ node between the 8B03-B0 (-ptical Bistribution 0rame) location and the customer premises! /n particular, there is no need for an active street cabinet li e in the AB64 case! 7ompared with copper infrastructure the limitations regarding length are much lower in

15

the case of fibre, and therefore the distance between a fibre -B0 (and the necessary -ptical 4ine Termination (-4T) e'uipment) and the end customer may be much higher! This, in turn, allows concentration of the access networ at fewer (metro core) locations and closure of old 8B0 locations! *ith 0ibre ":" each subscriber is connected by a dedicated fibre between the -B0 and its home, enabling exploitation of the fibre capacity up to the limits the attached terminal e'uipment allows! 6tate of the art are 5thernet interfaces with up to E $bit3s in a symmetrical manner! Thus, such a non shared solution is future proof according to uncertain bandwidth needs and it is able to serve all ind of end customers, i!e! residential and business as well as wireless operators. antenna and switch locations! The -57B study points out that with "-# typically a group of up to D? subscribers03 is addressed by one fibre strand starting at the -B0 location! This single fibre strand is transformed into one fibre per subscriber at one (or several cascaded) splitter
00 The study does not mention 0TTC solutions, where the fibre termination point is in the basement of a building and where the connection into the actual customer apartments is based on existing inhouse infrastructures (li e e!g! copper cables)! 03 /t is worth to point out that there are of course countries in which the architectures are based upon a >: subscriber (or even lower) outlay

location(s)! /n the splitter the optical beam is distributed into each of the fibres and vice versa, thus all subscribers use the same optical beam for upstream and downstream communications!01 Therefore the beam is the shared medium and the architecture is somehow comparable to 7%TA! The capacity in the most advanced $"-# ($igabit "-#) solutions currently is :!@ $bit3s downstream and E!:@ O :!@ $bit3s upstream, shared between the subscribers! The fibre strands are terminated at an -4T in the central location and an -#J at the subscriber site! This e'uipment administers upstream capacity on demand and recogni=es the addressee for downstream communication! The study distinguishes three approaches to locate the splitter (see the next figure)( ) inside the user building, ) outside the building in a street cabinet, and ) in the central office! The study emphasi=es that the alternative actually chosen affects the cost of a second operator who intends to use the existing infrastructure in an unbundled way! The most

16

expensive solution for that case is the splitter location in the basement of a building! 1owever, the study neglects to either raise or discuss what location environment or cost factors may be at-play in the deployment decision regarding splitter location or what additional considerations may impact why one approach may be chosen over another!
01 To be more precise, this is not necessarily the only possible case, as some "-# architectures utili=e more than one (separate) lasers!

/ veini zemalja *47D>a lokalne samouprave imati ovlasti za upravljanje javnom prava nain #ain na koji ta upravljaka prava ostvaruje varira od zemlje do zemlje 6to se tie pravne imbenike *47D>a raspravlja o sljedeim politikim pitanjima (amo ponekad je nesigurnost i nedostatak transparentnosti o nadlenosti i rjeavanje sporova Medan od naina da razjasniti nadlenosti je dati nadlenost za odobravanje prava na nain savezna 3 ili sredinje vlasti bilo propisivanje posebni) pravila ili davanjem "kod ovlasti "na komunikacijske mree pruatelja usluga (amo gdje to nije mogue za ustavne ili politiki) razloga, pruajui vie autonomije mree usluga mogu biti koristan *sim toga, pod uvjetom da je regulator s ovlasti da za)tijeva razmjenu kanala i stekne puno ovlatenje da lokalne vlasti kako bi se cijevi i ostale komunalije dostupne operateri e olakati roll>out mrea nove i pomoi u smanjenju trokove -ako bi se osigurala dosljedna upravni) postupaka, da bi bilo korisno postaviti jasno putokaz o tome kako dobiti javnog prava nain doputa stvaranjem centraliziranog informacije bod pomou sredinje portal Da biste sprijeili kanjenja u primjeni postupak za prava nain, sustav zatite je potrebno to osigurava da rokovi za donoenje odluka u vezi dozvola potuju Aaan faktor koji utjee na pristup pravima nain je financijski troak pristupa i koritenje prava nain / nekoliko zemalja javnim prava nain ne podlijeu plaanja / cilju smanjenja trokova u izgradnji vlakno kue, *47D>a zakljuuje da su vlade i 3 ili regulatori trebaju osigurati da bilo koji naknade vezane s pomou javnog prava nain treba smanjiti ili otkloniti 'rava nain podnositelji za)tjeva trebali bi biti predmetom minimalni skup obveza za sanaciju i odravanje 5egulatorna pitanja+ *47D>a raspravlja o dva glavna visoke cijene stavke za implementaciju 1((D+ gra"evinske radove i in>)ouse oienje *vi se smatraju uska grla ograniava raspore"ivanje 1((D 0 obzirom na in>)ouse oienje, *47D>a izraava sumnju da e biti vie od jednog valjanje iz in>)ouse oienje, jer trokova, nedostatak prostora u kabelske police i odbijanje imovine predstavnika dodijeliti pristup do vie od jednog operatera -ako bi se olakala natjecanje vlakana lokalni) petlji, smanjiti trokove i smanji broj iskopa i druge gra"evinske radove u opinama dijeljenje postojei) vodova, kako one telekomunikacija i kabelske tvrtke, ali i drugi) komunalni) usluga, je Aaan politiki uvjet 0lino pristup izgradnji i dijeljenje oienje je vano osigurati uinkovito trino natjecanje na tritu -ako bi se poboljala izgradnju konkurentni) lokalni) petlji, vlada i 3 ili regulatora moe+ (G) *sigurati da postojei okvir za razmjenu i sadanjeg telekomunikacijski) 3 kabel prava nain i unutar oienje su fer (:) poticati i 3 ili obvezuju dijeljenje kanala i drugi) prava nain obje strane namjetenika i druge komunalne infrastrukture koji su (=) ispitati da li bi bilo mogue razviti okvir koji e omoguiti za 1((D usluga da imaju pristup pravima nain postojei) opinski) komunalne (voda, kanalizacija, struja) (akav okvir moe biti mogue ako ti programi javno vlasnitvu (?) 5azviti okvir kako bi se omoguilo zajednikoj izgradnji kanala koji se mogu dijeliti potencijalni) ulagaa u 1((D *kvir u kojem opine su izravno

17

ukljueni bi bilo bolje u osiguravanju uspje)a prava nain projekata koji su me"usobno u vlasnitvu (@) !spitati mogunost regulatorni) mjera za olakavanje razmjene unutar oienje izme"u operatora u vie stambeni) jedinica 0 obzirom na trokove povezane sa rollout 1((D, *47D>a zakljuuje da regulatori i vlade trebale bi poduzeti mjere kako bi osigurao novim sudionicima s boljim pristup i olakati ulaganja u opinskim prava nain *47D>a tako"er trai pravedno razmatranje zraka implementacije vlakana to se smatra trokovno uinkovite nain implementacije Dodjela pristup postojeim objektima je vana politika opciju Dijeljenje nove gra"evinske radove moe biti neki drugi odgovarajui opciju -oristiti tamno vlakno je jo jedan mogui izbor 'ostojei administrativno i financijski uklanjanje prepreka za poticanje ulaganja u te)nologiju optiki) vlakana treba pregledati kako bi smanjili trokove 9a sumirati, *47D>a navodi se sljedee mjere za poboljanje pristupa pravima nain i smanjenje trokova pristupa+ , 0manjenje prepreka povezana s dobivanje ovlatenja za pristup i koritenje prava nain , *siguravanje pojanjenje nadlenosti za davanje prava nain i podmirenje sporova i koordinacije me"u tijelima javne vlasti koji su ukljueni , /skla"ivanje administrativni) procedura za pristup pravima nain i osigurati dosljednost u primjeni ovi) postupaka u cijeloj zemlji , 5azvijanje razumnu sustav naknade za pristup i koritenje *pinsko dravno prava nain , *sigurati da operateri ulaganja u kanalima podlijeu minimalni skup obveze za sanaciju i odravanje , 'oticanje i 3 ili obvezuje dijeljenje kanala i drugi) prava nain obje strane nositelj komunikacije poduzea i druge alate koji su infrastrukture , !spitivanje uloge javno>privatnog partnerstva u implementaciju tamno vlakana i 3 ili tree strane infrastrukture pruatelja usluga za kanal dijeljenje , !spitivanje mogunosti zakonske mjere kako bi se olakalo razmjenu unutar oienje izme"u operatora u vie stambeni) jedinica , 5azvoj politike za izgradnju zajednike kanale koje novim sudionicima : K : -retanje vlakno te)nologijama i ulaganja *47D (:;;<b) je autor 5udolf van der Cerg iz 2inistarstva gospodarstva 'oslova, #izozemska, dok je dodijeljen stranke *47D>a 5adovi na -omunikacija infrastrukture i usluga politike 'ododjeljak : K : G odnosi se na te)nologije i mrene ar)itekture 'ododjeljak : K : : adrese razliitim poslovnim modele za igrae na tritu i nji)ove investicijske odluke 'ododjeljak : K : = usredotouje na poslovni model sluaj : K : G (e)nologija i mrena ar)itektura aspekte 9a raspravu prve milje prijenosa te)nike beini, )ibridne i vlakana rjeenja uzeti u obzir Ceini) rjeenja 0tudija analizira , =% i = @% mobilne beine standarde+ D0D'& (Dig) 0peed DoInload 'acket &ccess) i 4A>D* (4volution Data *ptimized), , fiksne beine standarde (Ni1i (!444 <;: GG$) i Ni2&O (!444 <;:,GE) 3 NiCro (-oreja verzija)) 0ve od ti) rjeenja treba brzi fiksni pristup nji)ove bazne stanice, to stanica veliine manje od G km kada podrava visoke brzine veze preuzimanje za nekoliko kupci u isto vrijeme (o dovodi do potrebe prilino visoke gustoe irokopojasni) prikljuaka u odre"enom zemljopisnom podruju sluiti antene (npr na temelju na vlakna, 4G iznajmljene linije, D0B ili mikrovalne radio veze) Dakle, gotovo fiksni irokopojasne mree potrebno je kao preduvjet za ove beine implementacije -ao to je propusnost od radio sustav se dijeli izme"u sve korisnike svoju sposobnost da slui korisnicima u paralelno je ogranien, stoga, nji)ova sposobnost da pokrije mnoga domainstva kao prvu liniju te)nologija je slab u odnosu na fiksne linije 'rednosti beini) rjeenja su vidjeli u svojim mobilnost i nji)ovu sposobnost za pokrivanje ruralni) podruja Ceini) rjeenja stoga iskljueni iz daljnjeg razmatranja

18

Dibridna mrea Dibridna mrea dovesti vlakana blie krajnjem kupcu, u usporedbi s postojeim '0(# mree, dakle, skrauje bakreni) vodova i poveanje propusnosti koji mogu prenositi 0tudija istie sljedee te)nologije+ , $D0B (Digital 0ubscriber Bine), , kabel (koaksijalni kabel za (A>distribuciju), te , 'oIerline (na temelju elektrine mree) rjeenja 'rednost svi) ti) rjeenja je da raspore"ivanje poiva na ve postojee fiksne linija mree koje su poboljane za irokopojasni prijenos D0B mree djeluju kao point>to>point mree izme"u svakog krajnjeg korisnika, a prvi agregacija toki (gdje je pojedinac ice spajaju) na ulici ormaria najnaprednije te)nike AD0B moe prenijeti oko @; 2bps doIn i =; 2bps uzvodno, pod uvjetom da je duina bakrene linije izme"u agregiranja D0B&2 (D0B 'ristupni multipleksor) u ulici ormaria i krajnjeg kupca iznosi manje od ?@; metara 2aksimalni kapacitet smanjuje snano i nelinearne s poveanjem udaljenost Dakle, to ovisi o stvarnom fiziki pristup mrei strukture na koju stupanj mree sastanka kapaciteta potrebe -ako instalirati AD0B te)nologije postojee bakrene pristup mrei moraju biti nadograditi tako da instalirate vlakana linije izme"u sredinji) ureda i D0B&2s, po proirenje ulice ormara Pprostor i da slui s elektrine energije i zraka ure"aj za aktivnu D0B&2 opreme 2e"utim, razmjetaj AD0B moe omoguiti postojeim 2D1 (glavni razdjelnik) lokacija se ukinuti, ako nema dalje je potrebno za odravanje mree bakrene linije izvan sub>loop (o je predvidjeti da znatno manji broj novi) koncentracije bodova (metro jezgre mjesta) su potrebi, to naravno moe biti instaliran na pret)odnu 2D1 mjestima Dakle, ukupni postoji ogroman potencijal za financiranje novi) ulaganja prodajom ti) 2D1 mjestima koja nisu potrebni vie 'otencijalne nedostatke utvr"ene studiji su da bakar linija duljine, dok je smanjen, i dalje ogranienje, da je malo prostora lijevo za poboljanje prema viim bandIidt)s te da streaming sadraja (npr !'>(A) moe konzumirati nizvodno kapaciteta, dakle, ostavljajui manje za druge aplikacije -abelska (A mree su in)erentno mree emitiranja i djelovati kao zajedniki prijenosni medij 0ve na kraju kupci dobivaju iste informacije i pristup istom kabelu 0toga, kako kako bi se omoguilo pojedine komunikacijske mree moraju se nadograditi elektronikim prijenosni) sustava, koji omoguavaju izdvajanje pojedini) uzvodno komunikacije na zajedniki kabel i odaberite pojedinane nizvodno informacije koje se prenosi u emitiranja nain, tako da svaki kupac na kraju prima samo ono to je posveeno njemu !ako je sustav idealan je za (A>signal distribuciju svoji) kapaciteta za pojedine komunikacija je ograniena, a ovisi o koliini korisnika biti aktivni na istom vrijeme 9a skupinu korisnika studije identificira tipian kapacitet od GE; 2bps nizvodno (za prijenos podataka) Da bi prevladali taj nedostatak u iznosu od korisnika na isti kabel moe se smanjiti instaliranjem vlakna i vlakna se kree vorova blie krajnjim kupcima 'oIerline se spominje da slui trenutno do :J 2bps nizvodno i G< 2bps uzvodno za skupinu korisnika navui na zajedniki komunikacijski medij, isti kabel za napajanje *vime se iskljuuje !'>(A i stoga triple plaF pakete proizvoda ! ak i onda 'oIerline rjeenja e vam trebati vie gusti) vlakana distribucije pristupne toke u odnosu na AD0B 'oIerline pati znaajno od elektrini) smetnji problema ('rimanje i prijenos), budui da je energetski kabeli nisu zatieni i nisu bili zamiljen kao medij elektroniki) komunikacija 0tudija navodi da se prerano procijeniti budua uloga 'oIerline rjeenja na tritu i stoga ne istraiti ovo rjeenje u vie dubine Alakana na temelju rjeenja 0tudija identificira sljedee prednosti vlakana kao medij za prijenos+ , sposobnost za obavljanje gotovo neogranien irina pojasa, , niska latencija (kanjenje prijenosa) u usporedbi sa satelitskom, , niska priguenja i disperzije, stoga, niska potreba za regeneraciju signala, , Dobar ekoloki svojstva, npr ni utjecaj na prijenos informacije elektromagnetski) polja ni emisija takvog polja, dakle, ne poremeaja ili crosstalks izme"u susjedni) vlakana 3 ica, nema korozije, nema utjecaj od kie, lie ili zgrada (vidljivi) kao s radio mrea,

19

, mala teina i veliina, , slina cijeni u odnosu na parica telefonski ili koaksijalni kablovi 0tudija navodi &rt)ur D Bittle (:;;E) 0tudija procjene budui) bandIit) po kuanstva do vr)a na @; 2bps nizvodno i uzvodno < 2bps za triple plaF koritenje ((elefonija, podataka i video 3 (A) 'ostoje dva razliita pristupa za uvo"enje 1((D (1ibre na poetni) :: infrastrukture, kao prvi kilometar mree+ , vlakana ':', , '*# (pasivna svjetlo vodna mrea) *bje od ti) te)nologija su temelji na vlaknima samo i ne treba srednje aktivni vorita mree izme"u 2D1 3 *D1 (optiki razdjelnik), mjesto i u korisnikom prostoru -onkretno, nema potrebe za aktivnim ulici vlada kao u AD0B sluaj / usporedbi s bakrom infrastrukture ogranienja u pogledu duine su znatno nie u sluaju vlakana, a time i udaljenost izme"u vlakana *D1 (i potrebne *ptiko linijsko zakljuenje (*B() oprema) i krajnjeg kupca moe biti puno vea (o je, pak, doputa koncentracija pristupne mree na manje (metro jezgre) lokacija i zatvaranje stari) 2D1 mjesta 0 vlaknima ':' svaki pretplatnik je povezan posveena vlakana izme"u *D1 i svoj dom, omoguujui iskoritavanje vlakana kapaciteta do granice u privitku terminalne opreme omoguuje #ajsuvremenija su 4t)ernet suelja s do G %bit 3 s na simetrini nain Dakle, kao to ne dijele rjeenje je budunost dokaz u skladu s neizvjesna bandIit) potreba i da je u stanju sluiti sve vrste krajnji) kupaca, odnosno stambene i poslovne kao i beini operatora antenu i sIitc) mjesta !straivanje *47D>a istie da je s '*# obino grupu do E? subscribers:= je rjeavati jedan vlakana cjedilu poevi od *D1 mjestu *vaj singl vlakana aktivnost je pretvoriti u jedan vlakana po pretplatniku na jednom (ili vie kaskadna) cjepidlaka :: 0tudija ne spominje 1((C rjeenja, gdje je toka vlakana prestanka je u podrumu zgrade i gdje je veza u stvarni kupac stana temelji se na postojeim in>)ouse infrastrukture (kao to je npr bakreni kabeli) := Arijedno je istaknuti da postoje, naravno, zemalja u kojima ar)itekture temelje se na =: pretplatnika (ili ak i nie) izdatak Bokacija (e) / razdjelnika optiki snop se distribuira u svakoj od vlakana i potpredsjednika obrnuto, dakle svi pretplatnici koriste isti optiki snop za uzvodno i nizvodno communications :? 0toga zraka je zajedniki prijenosni medij, a ar)itektura je nekako usporediti s 7&(A -apacitet u najnaprednijim %'*# (%igabit '*#) rjeenja je trenutno :,@ %bit 3 s nizvodno i G,:@ > :,@ %bit 3 s uzvodno, dijeliti izme"u pretplatnika Alakna niti su prestaje u *B( u sredinje mjesto i na *#/ pretplatnik mjestu *va oprema upravlja uzvodno kapacitet na za)tjev i priznaje primatelja za nizvodno komunikacije 0tudija razlikuje tri pristupa kako bi pronali razdjelnik (vidi sljedeu sliku)+ , unutar korisnik zgrade, , ispred zgrade u ulici kabineta, a , u sredinjem uredu 0tudija naglaava da alternativa zapravo izabrao utjee na troak drugi subjekt koji namjerava koristiti postojeu infrastrukturu u izdvojenoj nain #ajvie skupo rjeenje za taj sluaj je podijeliti mjesto u podrumu zgrade 2e"utim, studija zanemaruje bilo podizanje ili raspravljati o tome to mjesto okoli ili cijene imbenici mogu biti, igrati u implementaciju odluke o razdjelnik mjesto ili ono to Dodatna razmatranja mogu utjecati zato jedan pristup moe biti izabran nad drugom :? Da budemo precizniji, to nije nuno jedini mogui sluaj, kao i neke '*# ar)itekture koristiti vie od jedne (odvojeni) laseri

20

Figure 3

opolo,ies -or !O2 -ibre net.orks a//ordin, to O'(#

The study points out that both 0TT1 ":" and "-# solutions need fibre for inhouse cabling, i!e! they cannot use existing (copper) cabling within the buildings! Thus additional investments have to be made there! 1owever, the study does not distinguish among deployments to multiple dwelling units (8BJs), business complexes or singlefamily homes, and the fact that existing cabling may in fact be sufficient where distance from the optical terminal to the user connection is minimal! 6ome "-# networ s distribute TA signals in a separate channel, thus, releasing the data communication channels from the TA streaming information! Comparison of access technologies 7omparing the last mile networ solutions the -57B study at first excludes all wireless approaches, because they are not capable of sending large amounts of data over larger distances and to provide service to many users simultaneously! *ireless approaches have their strength regarding mobility and with respect to the last wireless meters in a building and perhaps also in geographical regions with an extremely dispersed population! 7oncerning the hybrid networ s "owerline is characteri=ed as a niche technology which is therefore not considered further in the study! 7able and AB64 networ s are 'ualified as being able to sustain services for the average user in the coming years! 7%TA is viewed as performing better in distributing TA signals and AB64 is stronger with respect

21

to providing multiple on-demand streams (e!g! video on demand)! Coth technologies are classified as not being future proof concerning the bandwidth offered! %ccording to the -57B, 0ibre to the 1ome networ s provide the best performing solution concerning bandwidth and sustainability per end user and are therefore most future proof! The decision between ":" and "-# fibre will depend on various preferences and local facts! Coth are able to serve the customer needs in a satisfying way! %lthough the -57B study states that businesses will have a strong preference for point-:-point networ s (p! :D), it provides no further support for this conclusion!! 0rom a regulatory point of view the study mentions four levels of unbundling( ) 7onduit and collocation facilitiesH ) "hysical layer unbundling (e!g! sub-loop unbundling (64J), copper wire, fibre, optical layer unbundling (x*B8 in "-#))H ) Bata lin layer unbundling (e!g! wholesale bitstream access)H ) #etwor layer unbundling (e!g! /" 4ayer > services)! Cecause of their shared nature, 7%TA and "-# networ s are inherently less suited to 4ocal 4oop Jnbundling! *ith "-# the only possibility will be a 64J solution, provided the splitters are accessible! % solution might be if the splitters are located in street cabinets which give access to -ptical 6treet Bistribution 0rames (-6B0)! The -57B report underlines that a "-# environment re'uires unbundling to be ta en into account right from the start of the networ (p! :G)! -therwise stated, such implementations, the need for them, and the relevant costs3benefits have to be anticipated (and3or mandated) from the beginning of the rollout of the "-#! 44J is possible with B64 (practised in many countries) and ":" fibre networ s! *holesale bitstream access may be implemented on all networ s, but it is more difficult on networ s with a shared medium (7%TA, "-#) to guarantee the same nondiscriminatory 'uality for all and maximise the usage of the available bandwidth at the same time! 03
03 -f course, guaranteeing Po6 in particular depends largely on the bac haul supplied to 7%TA and "-#!

4i ewise, there are several re'uirements regarding the unbundled transmission of TA signals by *holesale Citstream %ccess( ) Croadcast TA on "-# or 7%TA cannot be shared by different operators unless the possible number of channels is limited for all parties (they are restricted by the number of operators who want to share the limited capacity)! ) /"-TA competes with data in the same bitstream, thus, bandwidth must be allocated for the TA-stream! 6ome agreement on /"-TA multicast as a *C% feature therefore is re'uired! This is less critical in ":" fibre solutions where the capacity to each customer is not restricted!

22

) /f there are sufficient fibre strands available, a separate fibre to deliver 7able TA to the end customer might provide a real choice for the customer between 7able TA and /"-TA offers! 6umming up this comparison there is a preference for fibre based 0TT1 networ s, while there is a clear preference of business customers for the ":" fibre networ ! 0rom a regulatory point of view there is a preference for ":" fibre networ s as well, because they offer more options for regulatory measures li e 44J and *C% where these are deemed necessary! :!I!:!: Cusiness models and investment decisions The study analyses several business models and investment decisions from the perspective of both an incumbent and competitors! Cable operators 7able operators can migrate to B-76/6 >!; and expand the fibre closer to the end customer, thus climbing up the ladder of investment, but they normally have limited free cash flow! These operators act as a second operator unless they are the first mover or refuse to invest at all! Telco incumbents /ncumbents address the increasing need for more broadband in most cases by rolling out AB64 networ s and, thus, bringing fibre closer to the end customer! This limits the investment compared to an all fibre access networ ! %n 0TT1 networ may be a second step to enlarge the fibre reach when the bandwidth demand increase justifies it! This strategy, however, bears the ris s that (E) the existing large free cash flow may diminish with falling voice revenues, so that li'uidity is reduced when the second step is necessary and (:) a pure fibre networ may have a different cost optimal topology than the reconstruction of the existing copper networ by fibre! 8oreover, the incumbent may be bypassed by a competitor! 6ome incumbents already invest in all fibre access networ s, because there is a competitive force by new entrants or cable operators! 04 The study does not mention that the national structure of the copper access networ may not allow a viable business case for AB64 because of the length of the sub-loop, li e in 0rance! Cesides this, there is a welcome side effect (from the viewpoint of the incumbent) because the AB64 solution might discourage competitors to further invest in infrastructure and fall bac to purchase wholesale bitstream access! This may as well be a welcome side effect for the incumbent when the incumbent deploys "-# instead of ":" fibre access lines! Market entrants

23

8ar et entrants may move up the value chain and save 44J charges when they deploy 0TT1! % first mover approach may end in high customer penetration, which is crucial in a competitive situation! 7iting %nalysys (:;;Ga) the -57B study states that in many cases there will not be a viable business case for new entrants presently using local loop unbundling to move to sub-loop unbundling to invest alongside the incumbent! The new entrants can neither access the already existing infrastructure of the incumbent nor can they experience the savings of selling existing assets (li e the 8B0 locations)! Thus they may ta e up the chance and the ris of moving ahead of the incumbent! % special group of new entrants may be utility companies (li e e!g! in Benmar )! They may try to diversify and leverage the already existing infrastructure! They normally wor under less ris and a lower *%77 and they are used to ma e long term investments! -ften municipalities use their utility companies as an instrument for an economic improvement of their region by deploying fibre infrastructure! Alternati e business models The study also discusses alternative business models li e ) *elfare based networ s, ) 7ustomer owned networ s, ) 6ervice and advertisement financed networ s, ) -pen networ s!
04 5xamples are the fibre deployments in Norea (Norea Telecom), 9apan (#TT 5ast and *est) and the J!6! (Aeri=on)!

/n welfare based networ s the indirect welfare aspects caused by the fact that a broadband access networ exists help to finance (or subsidise) the networ ! 6uch aspects may be energy efficiency gains, having elderly people stay longer in their homes or remotely monitor patients! 7ustomer owned networ s are characteri=ed by end customers deploying access networ infrastructure on their own ris between their homes and a central concentration point, e!g! a local exchange location, where the service providers are present! 6uch a business model might facilitate a provider change, increase the choice between all services offered and it might allow a strictly cost based deployment! *ith service and advertisement financed networ s the dream of the networ operators would come true to participate from the high income of content providers and their stoc value increases! Cut disruptive technological developments and disruptive acceptance of services may dramatically change such business cases! -pen networ s may be divided into three layers( passive networ , active components

24

and services and content! The passive networ and possibly the active components are offered in a non-discriminatory manner to all operators, thus, guaranteeing a high penetration rate! The loss of income from the services may be compensated by a guaranteed income over the fixed lines of all operators! The study indicates that financial investors may consider a premium for operations displaying such characteristics! :!I!:!> Cusiness case model The business case model presented in -57B (:;;<b) was developed for the 8inistry of 5conomics of the #etherlands! /ts empirical basis refers to concrete Butch regions, construction cost etc!! The results therefore are not directly applicable to other countries! #evertheless the study describes some cost mechanics which are of interest for the generic approach pursued in the present study! The model is publicly available under http(33ngn!arcadis!nl! The model calculates the price per month per household (subscriber) for a triple play service depending on the penetration rate! The penetration rate is defined as the percentage of the number of subscriptions compared to the number of households passed! The results in Table > show a strong dependency of the end customer related cost (total) and the penetration rate!
0tudija istie da su i 1((D '*# ':' i rjeenja potrebna vlakna za in>)ouse kabliranje, tj oni ne mogu koristiti postojee (bakar) kabliranje unutar zgrade (ako dodatna ulaganja moraju biti tamo 2e"utim, studija ne razlikuje izme"u implementacije na vie stambeni) jedinica (2D/s), poslovni kompleksi ili singlefamilF domovima, kao i injenica da su postojei kabeli mogu zapravo biti dovoljna udaljenost gdje od optiki) terminala za prikljuak korisnika je minimalan #eki '*# mree distribuirati (A signala u odvojene kanalu, dakle, objavljivanju podaci komunikacijske kanale s (A streaming podataka /sporedba pristupa te)nologijama /spore"ujui posljednji) milju mrena rjeenja !straivanje *47D>a u prvom iskljuuje sve beine pristupa, jer "nisu u stanju slati velike koliine podataka preko vee udaljenosti i za pruanje usluga za mnoge korisnika istodobno " Ceini pristupa imaju svoje snage u pogledu mobilnosti i s obzirom na posljednje beini metara u zgradi i moda tako"er u zemljopisnim regijama s iznimno rasprena stanovnitva 6to se tie )ibrida mrea 'oIerline karakterizira kao nia te)nologija koja je, dakle, ne smatra dalje u studiji -abel i AD0B mree su kvalificirani kao bitak u mogunosti to odrati usluga za prosjenog korisnika u nadolazeim godinama 7&(A je promatrati kao bolju izvedbu u distribuciju (A signala i AD0B je jai u odnosu pruanju vie na za)tjev struje (npr video na za)tjev) *bje te)nologije su klasificirani kao ne bude budunost dokaz o propusnost ponudio 'rema *47D>a, 1ibre za kune mree daju najbolje rezultate rjeenje o propusnosti i odrivosti po krajnjeg korisnika te su stoga najee budunosti dokaz *dluka izme"u ':' i '*# vlakana ovisit e o raznim sklonosti i lokalne injenice *bje su u stanju sluiti potrebama kupaca u zadovoljavanju nain !ako !straivanje *47D>a navodi da "tvrtke e imati snanu sklonost point>:>point mree "(str :E), to ne daje dodatnu potporu za ovaj zakljuak *d regulatornog gledita studija spominje etiri razine razdvajanja+ , 'rovod i svrstavanje objekataQ , 1iziki sloj razdvajanje (npr pod>petlje (0B/), bakrena ica, vlakno,

25

optiki sloj razdvajanja ($ND2 u '*#))Q , Data Bink sloju razdvajanje (npr veleprodaja bitstream pristup)Q , 2reni sloj razdvajanje (npr !' BaFer = usluge) 9bog svoje zajednike prirode, 7&(A i '*# mree su in)erentno manje pogodna za Bokalni petlje /z '*# jedina mogunost biti 0B/ rjeenje, pod uvjetom da 5azvodnici su dostupne 5jeenje moe biti ako se nalazi u ulici 5azvodnici ormari koje daju pristup *ptiki 0treet Distribucija okviri (*0D1) *47D>a !zvjee istie da '*# okruenje za)tijeva razdvajanje biti "uzeti u obzir od samog poetka mree "(str :J) Drugaije navedeno, kao implementacije, potreba za njima, a relevantni trokovi 3 koristi moraju biti predvi"eni (i 3 ili mandatom) od poetka rollout '*# BB/ je mogue s D0B (prakticira se u mnogim zemljama) i ':' mree vlakana Aeleprodaja bitstream pristup moe se provoditi na svim mreama, ali je tee na mrea sa zajednikom mediju (7&(A, '*#) jamiti isti nediskriminirajue kvalitete za sve i maksimalno koritenje raspoloivi) irina pojasa na isto vrijeme :@ :@ #aravno, jami Ro0 posebice u velikoj mjeri ovisi o back)aul isporueni u 7&(A i '*# !sto tako, postoji nekoliko za)tjeva u vezi izdvojenoj prijenos (A signala na veliko bitstream pristup+ , 4mitiranje (A '*# ili 7&(A ne mogu dijeliti razliiti operatori, osim ako mogui broj kanala je ogranien za sve strane (oni su ogranieni broj gospodarski) subjekata koji ele dijeliti ogranieni) kapaciteta) , !'>(A natjee s podacima u istom bitstream, dakle, irina pojasa mora biti dodjeljuje za (A>stream #eki sporazum o !'>(A multicast kao NC& znaajka je stoga potrebno (o je manje kritine u ':' vlakana rjeenja kojima sposobnost svakog kupca nije ogranien , &ko postoji dovoljno vlakana niti dostupan, odvojena vlakna za isporuku -abelska (A do krajnjeg kupca moe pruiti pravi izbor za kupca izme"u kabela (A i !'>(A ponude /kratko ova usporedba je sklonost za vlakana se temelji 1((D mree, dok postoji jasna preferencija poslovnim korisnicima za ':' mreu vlakana !z regulatorne toke gledita postoji sklonost za ':' mree vlakana kao dobro, jer oni nude vie mogunosti za regulatorne mjere kao to su BB/ i NC&, gdje su smatra potrebnim : K : : poslovni) modela i investicijski) odluka 0tudija analizira nekoliko poslovni) modela i investicijski) odluka iz perspektive i sadanjeg i konkurenata -abelski) operatera -abel operateri mogu migrirati na D*70!0 =,; i proiriti vlakana blie kraju kupca, tako penjui se na ljestvici ulaganja, ali oni obino imaju ogranien slobodan novanog toka *vi operatori djeluju kao drugi operater osim ako su prvi pokreta ili odbiti ulagati na sve (elco namjetenici #amjetenici adresu vea potreba za vie irokopojasne u veini sluajeva valjanjem iz AD0B mree, a time i donosei vlakana blie krajnjeg kupca (o ograniava ulaganja u odnosu na sve mree vlakana pristup 1((D mrea moe biti Drugi korak za poveanje vlakana doi kada je poveanje propusnosti potranje to opravdava *va strategija, me"utim, nosi rizik da se (G) postojee velike slobodnog novanog toka moe smanjiti sa padom pri)oda glasom, tako da je likvidnost je smanjena kada drugi korak je potrebno i (:) ista vlakana mree mogu imati razliite cijene optimalne topologije od rekonstrukcije postojee bakrene mree vlakana *sim toga, aktualni moe zaobii strane natjecatelja #eki namjetenici ve ulau u sve optike mree, jer je konkurentne sile za nove sudionike ili kabel operators :E studija ne spominje da nacionalna struktura mree bakra pristup ne moe dopustiti izvediv posao sluaj za AD0B zbog duljine pod>petlje, kao u 1rancuskoj *sim toga,

26

je dobrodoao nuspojava (sa stanovita sadanjeg) jer AD0B rjeenje moe obes)rabriti konkurente za daljnje ulaganje u infrastrukturu i vratiti na kupiti veleprodaja pristup bitstream (o moe biti i kao dobrodoao nuspojava za sadanji kada aktualni raspore"uje '*# umjesto ':' optike linije (rini sudionici (rini sudionici mogu kretati gore lanac vrijednosti i spremiti BB/ trokove kada se rasporediti 1((D 'rvi pokreta pristup moe zavriti u visokoj kupca penetracija, to je presudno u konkurentne situacije #avodei &nalFsFs (:;;Ja) !straivanje *47D>a navodi+ "da je u mnogim sluajeva nee biti izvediv poslovni sluaj za nove sudionike trita trenutno koristei lokalne petlje da se presele u pod>petlje ulagati uz aktualni " #ovi lanovi ne mogu pristupiti ve postojee infrastrukture sadanji niti mogu doivjeti utede prodaje postojei) sredstava (kao to su 2D1 mjesta) (ako oni svibanj potrajati priliku i rizik kretanja ispred sadanji 'osebna skupina novi) sudionika moe biti komunalni) poduzea (kao npr u Danskoj) *ni mogu pokuati raznolikosti i utjecati na ve postojee infrastrukture *ni normalno rade pod manje rizika i manji N&77 i oni koriste kako bi se dugorono investicija 8esto opine koriste komunalna poduzea kao instrument za ekonomski poboljanje nji)ove regije razmjetanje vlakana infrastrukture &lternativni poslovnim modelima !straivanje je tako"er raspravlja o alternativnim poslovnim modelima kao to su , skrbi temelji mree, , -upac vlasnitvu mree, , 0ervis i oglasnik financira mrea, , *tvorite mree :E 'rimjeri su vlakna implementacije u -oreji (-oreja (elecom), Mapan (#(( !stoka i 9apada) i /0 (Aerizon) / "skrb na temelju mrea" neizravne dobrobiti aspekte uzrokovan injenicom da irokopojasne pristupne mree postoji pomo za financiranje (ili subvencionirati) mree (akav aspekti mogu biti energetsku uinkovitost dobitke, nakon to starije osobe dulje ostati u svojoj domove ili daljinski nadzor pacijenata "-upac vlasnitvu mree" odlikuje krajnje kupce uvo"enju pristupa mrene infrastrukture na vlastitu odgovornost izme"u svoje domove i sredinje koncentracije toke, npr lokalna centrala mjesto, gdje se usluga su prisutan (akav poslovni model moe olakati usluga promjena, poveanje izbor izme"u svi) ponu"eni) usluga i to bi moglo omoguiti strogo trokova na temelju implementacije /z "uslugu i oglasnik financira mrea" san mree operateri e obistiniti sudjelovati s visokim do)otkom od sadraja i nji)ove vrijednosti dionica poveava #o, razorni te)nolokog razvoja i remeti pri)vaanje usluga mogu dramatino promijeniti takvim sluajevima poslovanja "*pen mrea" moe se podijeliti u tri sloja+ pasivne mree, aktivne komponente i usluga i sadraja 'asivni mree i eventualno aktivne komponente nude u nediskriminirajui nain za sve operatore, tako, jame visok stopa penetracije %ubitak pri)oda od usluga moe kompenzirati zajameni do)odak preko fiksne linije svi) operatera 0tudija pokazuje da financijski) ulagaa moe uzeti u obzir premiju za operacije prikaz takvi) svojstva : K : = 'oslovni sluaju modela 2odel poslovnog sluaja predstavljena u *47D (:;;<b) je razvijen za potrebe 2inistarstva 4konomika #izozemske #jegova empirijska osnova odnosi se na konkretne #izozemski regije, trokova gradnje i sl 5ezultati, dakle nisu izravno odnosi se na ostale zemljama !pak studija opisuje neke cijene me)anike koje su od interesa za generiki pristup tei u ovoj studiji 2odel je javno dostupna pod )ttp+33ngn arcadis nl 2odel izraunava cijena mjeseno po lanu kuanstva (pretplatnika) za triple plaF usluge ovisno o stopa penetracije 'rodor stopa se definira kao postotak broja pretplate u odnosu na broj kuanstava

27

prolo 5ezultati u tablici = pokazuju snanu ovisnost krajnjeg kupca u svezi troak (ukupno), a stopa penetracije

Tabela 2 !ri/e per ho+sehold and month5 dependin, on the penetration

rate

The investment in passive and active infrastructure is determined by the si=e of the area, the housing density, the type of houses, cost of repaving and the cost of the active e'uipment! 0or the average housing density of the #etherlands the cost of a passive networ will range between @;; and E,@;; 5uro per household, while the cost of the active e'uipment is around G@; 5uro per household! 0or the examples given in the annex of the study (see below) the cost of passive infrastructure accounts for @> F of the capital expenditure! The results of the model show that there is no large scope for rolling out new all fibre access infrastructures! *hen two independent operators share the mar et so that each of them has a @; F penetration rate (and both together E;; F) the cost per household is G;!@; 5uro per month, assuming no sharing of costs between both operators! % monopolistic operator (E;; F penetration) could offer the triple play service for @G!DD 5uro per month! Thus, the 'uestion is what the customers are willing to pay (more) for a competitive situation and how this may influence the penetration rate! The study concludes that the impact of the penetration rate ma es it unli ely to have multiple networ s to guarantee a competitive mar et with four or even more competitors! Thus, supervising regulation must prevent tacit collusion in the mar et! /n the annex the study applies the model to the population density of 6un 7ity, %ri=ona, J6%! %ssuming a penetration rate of @; F this results in E;?!@? 5uro per month, compared to the Butch G;!@; 5uro per month, thus, underlining the importance of the population density! The results of the business case model show that reducing the costs of the passive infrastructure will have a major impact! The study therefore proposes means which can

28

be ta en by the government, the municipalities and the regulator to ease the infrastructure roll-out! 5xamples are( ) common use of in-house infrastructure, ) access to existing infrastructure (sewers, utilities), ) coordinated construction (between operators, utilities, municipalities), ) allowing the roll-out of new networ s regardless whether there already exist networ s, ) allowing collocation in street cabinets, ) unbundling "-#, if unbundling is a regulatory tool, ) enabling to exchange local traffic locally! The study recommends that the government should refrain from subsidising the roll-out of a networ in a region unless there is clear evidence that no private investor will do it! /f under these circumstances a networ is subsidised, it must be accessible to other networ s and service providers under e'ual conditions as an open networ ! %nd even in this case the roll-out of new networ s must be allowed, so that no protection or monopoly arises! The networ topology chosen should be a ":" fibre networ because of the ease of unbundling! 8oreover, the -57B report addresses the issue that local governments bundle their demands for new networ s with the demands of companies e!g! to procure a customer owned networ or enter into an agreement with an existing networ operator! /n this case, so the -57B argues, one important condition should be fulfilled( the terms of these agreements should enable competition on the service level and should not grant one operator a monopoly over those participating in the bundled demand! :!I!:!? 6ummary 6ummari=ing the study one can describe the technology and networ architecture best suiting the future needs to be a fibre based first mile networ , where ":" networ s are better suited for business customers. needs and are also preferable from a regulatory perspective (easier to unbundle)! The study recommends ":" fibre therefore also in the case of publicly subsidised networ s! Bue to the crucial effect of networ penetration on the cost per end customer and the influence of the passive infrastructure, the study recommends means to reduce the costs for the roll-out of infrastructure for broadband access networ s! 8oreover, the foreseeable cost structure of a networ owner and, in turn, its pricing opportunities raise the 'uestion as to whether, in a given mar et, facilities-based competition will emerge! The -57B report concludes that for an all-fibre

29

networ it is unli ely that there will be multiple networ s to guarantee a competitive mar et! 5ven if existing cable and "6T#-based networ s are factored in, according to the study, it is unli ely that there will be enough room in the mar et for four or more physical infrastructures to every household! The -57B report therefore underlines that there is a continuing possibility of (tacit) collusion in the mar et, a development regulators will have to ta e into account!

36 7eneri8ki model prist+pnih mre%a slijede9e ,enera/ije (27A)

1 7eneri/ b+siness model -or 27A
-ne of the main tas s of this study is the development of a generic business model! This model shall allow on the one hand the assessment of the viability of next generation access business models! -n the other hand regulatory recommendations should be derived that allow a maximum degree of viable duplication (replicability) whilst ensuring competition in the provision of services to consumers and businesses! Thus, the main 'uestions to answer are( ) Jnder which circumstances is a #$% business model viable or starts to become profitable+ ) Jnder which (additional) circumstances is it replicable+ Thereby, the conditions for replicability focus on the identification of conditions that need to be fulfilled so that a second mover could enter the #$% business in a viable manner! The profitability in the networ access business strongly depends on the mar et share reached and on the penetration rate of homes connected to the networ ! *e therefore have decided to model the critical mar et share at which the #$% business would reach viability! /n order to calculate the critical mar et share we ma e a steady state assumption, ta ing a time in the future where the #$% business already is developed and ignore any ramp up cost! *e use the mar et share achieved in the relevant mar et as input parameter! *e then compare the cost to roll out a #$% networ to an area with E;;F homes connected with the revenues achieved by the customers connected, i!e! with the revenue determined by the input parameter! The mar et share is increased from =ero to that value where the revenue per user is e'ual to the cost per user! This is the critical mar et share where the #$% business starts to become viable, dependent on the mar et share (for more details see section ?!:)!

30

0rom the previous studies described in 7hapter : it is nown that the viability of access networ s strongly depends on the subscriber density (subscriber per mQ) and on settlement structures! The denser the subscribers, the sooner the access networ will become viable! The model therefore is based on a set of clusters each characteri=ed by specific subscriber densities (see Table D)! The viability of a specific business model is calculated for each cluster separately, li e for a separate profit center, i!e! the viability of a business model in cluster % is independent from the viability in cluster C! /n each of the clusters we assume the access networ to be rolled out to E;;F homes connected! 0or each of the clusters, the point where the #$% business may become viable is calculated individually and independently from the results of other clusters! &et, all clusters rely on the same model assumptions!
!nvesticija u pasivne i aktivne infrastrukture odre"uje se prema veliini podruju, stambene gustoe, vrste kua, cijena repaving i troak aktivne opreme 9a prosjenu gustou stanovanja u #izozemskoj troak pasivnog mrea e se u rasponu izme"u @;; i G @;; eura po kuanstvu, dok je cijena aktivna oprema je oko J@; eura po kuanstvu 9a primjere u prilogu studije (vidi dolje) troak pasivne infrastrukture raune za @=H kapitalni) izdataka 5ezultati modela pokazuju da ne postoji velika prostor za valjanje se novi all vlakana infrastrukture -ada se dva nezavisna operatera udio na tritu, tako da svaki od nji) ima @;H stopa penetracije (a obje zajedno G;;H) je cijena po kuanstvu je J;,@; eura mjeseno, uz pretpostavku da nema podjelu trokova izme"u oba operatora monopolistikog operatora (G;;H penetracije) mogao ponuditi triple uslugu igrati za @J,EE 4ura mjeseno Dakle, pitanje je to kupci su spremni platiti (vie) za konkurentne situacije i kako to moe utjecati na stopu penetracije 0tudija zakljuuje da je utjecaj stopa penetracije ini malo vjerojatno da su vie mrea jamiti konkurentnom tritu s etiri ili ak i vie natjecatelja Dakle, nadzor propisa mora sprijeiti preutni dogovor na tritu / prilogu istraivanju primjenjuje model gustoom naseljenosti od 0un 7itF, &rizona, 0&D>u 'od pretpostavkom stopa penetracije od @;H rezultira u G;?,@? eura mjeseno, u odnosu na nizozemski J;,@; eura mjeseno, dakle, naglaavajui vanost gustoa stanovnitva 5ezultati poslovni model sluaju pokazuju da smanjenje trokova pasivne infrastrukture e imati veliki utjecaj 0tudija stoga predlae nain koji se moe se od strane vlade, opine i regulatora za ublaavanje infrastrukture roll>out 'rimjeri su+ , zajedniko koritenje u kui infrastrukture, , pristup postojee infrastrukture (kanalizacije, komunalne usluge), , koordinira izgradnju (izme"u operatera, komunalije, opina), , omoguuje roll>out mrea nove, bez obzira da li ve postoje mree, , omoguuje svrstavanje u ulici ormari, , razdvajanje '*#, ako je razdvajanja regulatorni) alat, , omoguavanje razmjene lokalni promet na lokalnoj razini 0tudija preporuuje da bi vlada trebala suzdrati od subvencioniranja roll>out mree u regiji osim ako ne postoji jasan dokaz da nema privatni investitor e to uiniti &ko pod tim okolnostima mree subvencionirana, ona mora biti dostupna na druge mree i usluga pod jednakim uvjetima kao i otvorene mree 'a ak i u ovom sluaju roll>out mrea nove smije biti doputeno, tako da bez zatite ili monopol javlja (opologija mree treba biti izabrani ':' mreu vlakana zbog na jednostavnost razdvajanja

31

*sim toga, *47D>a izvjee rjeava problem lokalne samouprave sveanj svoje za)tjeve za nove mree sa za)tjevima tvrtki npr nabaviti kupca vlasnitvu mree ili ui u ugovor s postojeim mrenog operatora / tom sluaju, tako da *47D>a tvrdi, jedan vaan uvjet treba biti ispunjen+ uvjeti ti bi sporazumi trebali omoguiti natjecanje na razini usluge i ne treba dati jedan operator monopol nad onima koji sudjeluju u paketu potranje : K : ? 0aetak 5ezimirajui studija moe se opisati te)nologije i mrene ar)itekture najbolje prilago"enje budunosti treba vlakana se temelji prvi kilometar mree, gdje je ':' mree bolje prilago"en za poslovne potrebe korisnika, a tako"er su prednost iz regulatorni) perspektive (lake unbundle) 0tudija preporuuje ':' vlakna, dakle tako"er u sluaju javno subvencionirane mrea 9bog presudan utjecaj mree prodora na cijena po krajnjeg kupca i utjecaj pasivnog infrastrukture, studija preporua sredstvo za smanjenje trokova za roll>out infrastrukture za irokopojasni pristupne mree 6tovie, predvidivi) trokova struktura mree i vlasnika, u pak, njegova cijena prilike postavljaju pitanje da li, u odre"enom tritu, objekata na bazi natjecanje e se pojaviti *47D izvjeu se zakljuuje da je za sve vlakana mrea je malo vjerojatno da e biti vie mrea jamiti konkurentni na tritu 8ak i ako postojei kabel i '0(#>based mree factored u, prema studija, malo je vjerojatno da e biti dovoljno mjesta na tritu za etiri ili vie fizike infrastrukture u svakom kuanstvu !zvjee *47D>a stoga istie da postoji i dalje mogunost (preutna) doslu)u na tritu, razvoj regulatori e morati uzeti u obzir = %eneriki modela pristupni) 2rea slijedee generacije (#%&) ? %eneriki poslovni model za #%& Medan od glavni) zadataka ovog istraivanja je razvoj generikog poslovanja modela *vaj model e omoguiti s jedne strane procjenu odrivosti sljedee generacije pristup poslovnim modelima 0 druge strane regulatorni) preporuka trebaju biti izvedeni da omoguuju maksimalni stupanj odrive dupliciranja (repliciranje) uz istovremeno osiguravanje trinog natjecanja u pruanju usluga za potroae i poslovne subjekte Dakle, glavna pitanja odgovoriti su+ , 'od kojim okolnostima je model #%& posao izvediv ili poinje da postane isplativo. , 'od kojim (dodatno) okolnostima je ponovljivi). (ime, uvjeti za repliciranje usredotoiti na identifikaciju uvjeta koji trebaju biti ispunjeni da da drugi pokreta mogla ui #%& poslovanje u odriv nain 'rofitabilnost u poslovnu mreu pristup snano ovisi o trinom udjelu dosegla i stopa penetracije domova prikljueni na mreu 0toga su odluili da se model kritine trini udio na kojoj #%& posao e doi do odrivost Da bi se izraunao trini udio kritini) smo napraviti stabilnom stanju pretpostavka, uzimajui u budunosti gdje je #%& posao ve je razvijen i ignorirati bilo rampa gore cijenu 2i koristimo trini udjel ostvaren na mjerodavnom tritu kao ulazni parametar 9atim smo usporediti cijene na razvaljajte #%& mree na podruju s G;;H domova povezani s pri)odima postii kupaca povezani, tj s pri)odima odre"uje ulazni parametar (rini udio je povean od nule do vrijednosti koja gdje je pri)od po korisniku je jednaka trokovima po korisniku (o je kritine trini udjel gdje #%& poslovanje poinje da postane odriva, ovisno o trinom udjelu (za vie detalja vidi poglavlje ? :) !z pret)odne studije opisane u 'oglavlju : poznato je da odrivost pristupa mree uvelike ovisi o gustoi pretplatnika (pretplatnika po km S) i na naselje strukture %ui pretplatnika, prije pristupne mree postati odriv 2odel stoga temelji se na skupu klastera svakog karakterizira specifian pretplatnika gustoe (vidi (ablicu E) *drivost odre"eni poslovni model je izraunava za svaki od klastera zasebno, kao i za odvojeni profitni centar, odnosno odrivost poslovni model u klasteru je neovisna od odrivosti klastera u C / svakoj od

32

klastera pretpostavljamo pristupne mree biti namotan vanjska strana od G;;H domova prikljueni 9a svaki od klastera, mjestu gdje se #%& poslovne svibanj biti izvediv je obraunava pojedinano i neovisno od rezultata drugi) klastera !pak, sve klasteri se oslanjaju na isti model pretpostavke

Tabela 3 Model spe/i-i/ation: (l+sters o- s+bs/riber densities

/n the model we compare the revenue side of the #$% business with the cost side! The revenue side typically is described by the average revenue per user (%2"J), which is a proxy for the price the customers pay for the services! The cost side has to ta e account of the whole networ value chain, i!e! from access to bac bone networ ! The rest of this chapter is organi=ed in four sections! 6ection ?!E describes the basic technical networ characteristics of a 0TT7-AB64 approach, of a 0TTC31 "-# approach and of a 0TTC31 point-to-point approach! 8oreover, we focus on specific input services that might be regulated, and which are ta en account of in the model! 6ection ?!: focuses on the characteri=ation of the overall model approach! 6ection ?!> is devoted to the main input variables of the model! 6ection ?!? finally concentrates on the model output, i!e! it explains the typical model results!

161 :asi/ te/hni/al net.ork /hara/teristi/s

The basic networ infrastructure considered in the model is illustrated in 0igure EG! Thus, the networ consists of( ) the /" core networ , ) the concentration networ and ) a subscriber access networ ! The core networ provides nationwide physical coverage with networ infrastructure, the interconnection to other networ s and the central services and applications! /t comprises routers (4abel 6witch and 4abel 5dge 2outers (4623 452)) being connected in a redundant way, servers hosting and providing services (caches, C-2%6, softswitches, ,) and gateways to other networ s! *e assume the provision of triple

33

play services (/"-TA) in our model! Bue to the broadcast3 multicast type of TA signal distribution we assume the central points of TA signal supply to be located in the core networ as well! % bac bone networ for a country li e $ermany e!g! typically has @; networ locations!
/ model smo usporedili strani pri)oda od #%& poslovanja s trokovne strane strani pri)oda obino se opisuje prosjean pri)od po korisniku (&5'/), to je pro$F za cijenu kupci platiti za usluge (rokovne strane mora poduzeti u obzir cijelu mreu "lanca vrijednosti", tj od pristupa okosnicu mree *statak ovog poglavlja je organizirana u etiri dijela *djeljak ?,G opisuje osnovne te)nike karakteristike mree 1((7>AD0B pristup, od 1((C 3 D '*# pristup i 1((C 3 D point>to>point pristup *sim toga, mi se fokusirati na odre"enu ulaz usluge koje bi mogle biti regulirano, a koji su uzeti u obzir u modelu *djeljak ?,: fokusira na karakterizaciju modela cjelokupnog pristupa *djeljak ?,= je posveen glavni ulazni) varijabli modela *djeljak ?,? konano se koncentrira na rezultat modela, tj objanjava tipine rezultata modela ?,G *snovne te)nike karakteristike mree *snovne mrene infrastrukture uzeti u obzir model je prikazan na slici GJ Dakle, mrea se sastoji od+ , !' jezgrene mree, , koncentracija mree i , mree pretplatnik pristupa Mezgrene mree nudi zemlje fizike pokrivenost s mrene infrastrukture, povezivanje s drugim mreama i sredinjem usluge i aplikacije to obu)vaa usmjerivai (Babel 0Iitc) i oznake 4dge /smjerivai (B05 3 ler)) koja je povezana na suvine nain, posluitelja )osting i pruanja usluga (sprema, C>5&0, softsIitc)es, ) i gateIaF na druge mree 'retpostavljamo pruanje triple plaF usluge (!'>(A), u naem modelu 9bog emitiranja 3 multicast vrste (A signala distribucija pretpostavljamo sredinje toke (A signala opskrbe biti smjeten u jezgri mreu, kao dobro *kosnica mrea za zemlju poput #jemake, npr obino ima @; mrena mjesta

Figure 4 272; 27A net.ork ar/hite/t+re: Ill+stration

The concentration networ transfers and concentrates the traffic from metro core

34

locations to the bac bone nodes, using 5thernet switches! *e assume the metro core locations to be located at 8B0 (8ain Bistribution 0rames) sites or local exchanges of today.s copper access networ ! 6ince #$% networ s replace or overbuild copper lines by fibre, the new architecture can overcome the line length restrictions of copper lines! 0ibre lines allow lengths above :; m distance between the fibre endpoints, while the copper networ was designed to less than ? m on average! *hile copper lines allow over this distance transmission rates up to roughly : 8bit3s with 61B64 or %B64:K (decreasing with increasing line length), fibre has no effective limitation! Thus, with fibre as transmission medium in #$% architectures it is possible to reduce the amount of cable concentration locations, which had been the 8B0 locations for the copper networ ! *e therefore assume the number of new metro core locations to be (far) less than the number of 8B0 locations, concentrating up to approximately ?;!;;; subscribers each! This characteristic value for an 874 site can be varied in the model! /t has been set according to practical experience with larger cable concentration locations and due to the fact that larger copper 8B0s reach comparable si=es! Coth the /" core and the concentration networ are not modelled in detail across all networ elements, but by the cost per E; bit3s networ traffic load in the busy hour per customer4<! The costs are then calculated by the average traffic per customer in a customer mix we describe together with the %2"J assumptions and being summed up! The metro core location is the border between the 7oncentrator and the 6ubscriber %ccess #etwor ! /n the metro core locations the customer traffic is fed into 5thernet switches which then concentrate the traffic to the bac bone nodes! There exist various different architectural approaches for the subscriber access networ ! /n this study we consider 0iber-to-the-7urb (0TT7) AB64 (Aery 1igh 6peed Bigital 6ubscriber 4ine), 0ibre-to-the-1ome (0TT1) "-# ("assive -ptical #etwor ) and 0TT1 ":" ("oint-to"oint) %ccess #etwor s (0igure EG)! *ith 0TT7 networ s the fibre ends in the street cabinets (67) or in buildings near the customer premises and the communication is then transferred over the existing copper access lines! *ith 0TT1 a fibre always ends in the customer home (apartment, dwelling)! % further variant is 0TTC (0ibre-totheCuilding)! /t can be described in a simplified way as 0TT1, while the fibre ends in the

35

basement of the buildings and the communication path to the end users will be continued using existing inhouse cables! This might limit the bandwidth to the end customer in the case of copper inhouse cable! Therefore this variant is not considered in this study! *e would expect results for it to be slightly cheaper than the 0TT1 solutions, but more expensive than AB64 and less viable than 4oop Jnbundling solutions! Thus the results will be within those being spanned out by the solutions chosen!
4< The price per E; bit3s has been ta en from external models and has been adjusted due to the experience of 57T% members! Thus modelling could concentrate on the #$% part

-oncentracije mrea prenosi i usmjerava promet od metro jezgre lokacija okosnica vorova, koristei 4t)ernet preklopnika 'retpostavljamo metro jezgri mjesta se nalazi na 2D1 (%lavni Distribucija *kviri) stranice ili lokalne razmjene danas bakrene pristupne mree Cudui da #%& mrea zamijeniti ili zidati preko linije bakra od vlakana, nova ar)itektura moe prevladati ogranienja linija bakreni) vodova duljine Alakana linije dopustiti duljina iznad :; km udaljenosti izme"u vlakana krajnje toke, a bakar mrea je osmiljen kako bi manje od ? km u prosjeku Dok bakreni) vodova dopustiti na toj udaljenosti brzine prijenosa do oko : 2bit 3 s sa 0DD0B ili &D0B: L (0manjuje s poveanjem duljine linija), vlakna nema djelotvornog ogranienja Dakle, s vlaknima kao medij za prijenos u #%& ar)itekture mogue je smanjiti u iznosu od kabela koncentracije mjesta, koji je bio 2D1 mjesta za bakar mree 0toga pretpostavljamo broj novi) lokacija 2etro jezgre se (Daleko) manje od broja 2D1 lokacija, koncentrirajui se na oko ?;,;;; pretplatnika svaki (a karakteristina vrijednost za 27B Ieb>mjesta moe se mijenjati u modelu (o je bio postavljen u skladu s praktinog iskustva sa veim kabel koncentracije mjesta i zbog injenice da je vei bakra 2D1s doi usporedive veliine *ba !' core i koncentracija mree nisu modelirani detaljno u svim elemenata mree, ali po cijeni po G; kbit 3 s mrenog prometa tereta u prometnu sat customerEJ (rokovi su tada izraunava prosjek promet po klijentu u kupac mijeati opisujemo zajedno sa &5'/ pretpostavke i biti zbrajaju 2jesto 2etro jezgra je granica izme"u koncentratora i 'retplatnika 'ristupne mree / 2etro jezgri mjesta kupca promet je )ranio u 4t)ernet prekidaa koji se onda usredotoiti promet na okosnicu vorova 'ostoje razne razliiti) ar)itektonski) pristupa za mree pretplatnika pristup / ovoj studiji smo uzeti u obzir 1iber>to>t)e>7urb (1((7) AD0B (AerF Dig) 0peed Digital 0ubscriber Bine), Alaknima>to>t)e>Dome (1((D) '*# (pasivna svjetlo vodna mrea) i 1((D ':' (point>to> (oka) pristupne mree (0lika GJ) /z 1((7 mree vlakana zavrava na ulici ormari (07), ili u zgradama u blizini kupca prostorija i komunikacija zatim prebaen u odnosu na postojee bakrene pristupne linije /z 1((D vlakana uvijek zavrava u kupca kue (stan, stan) Daljnja varijanta je 1((C (1ibre>to>t)e> 9grada) (o moe biti opisano u pojednostavljeni nain 1((D, a vlakna zavrava u podrumu zgrade i komunikacija put do krajnji) korisnika bit e nastavile koristiti postojee in)ouse kabela (o moe ograniiti propusnost do kraja kupaca u sluaju bakra in)ouse kabela 0toga ova varijanta se ne smatra u ovoj studiji *ekujemo da e rezultati za to da se neto jeftinije nego 1((D rjeenja, ali skuplji od AD0B i manje odriva od petlje rjeenja (ako rezultati e biti unutar oni) koji su trajala od strane rjeenja izabrao EJ cijena po G; kbit 3 su uzeti iz vanjski) modela, te je prilago"en zbog iskustvo 47(& lanova (ako modeliranje mogao koncentrirati na #%& dio

36

Fig re 5 Bifferent technical solutions for deep fibre deployment in the local loop(
Ill+stration The model is programmed in such a manner that one of the aforementioned access architectures has to be chosen as the first input parameter! The model is constructed as bottom-up 42/7, i!e! it calculates the costs of the investment needed for a certain degree of coverage and mar et share, considering all cost elements needed to produce the service! This will be described in the following sections in more detail!

?!E!E The 0TT7-AB64 model

*ith 0TT7-AB64 the copper access lines, which today end in the 8B0 locations, will be shortened and then end at the street cabinet! -ver these shorter copper subloops, a AB64 broadband signal can be transmitted4=! The street cabinets have to be exchanged in order to be able to install B64%8s, which terminate the electrical copper
4= The available bit rates of AB64 are very much dependent on the length of the copper line, see *ulf (:;;G) or *illiamson et al! (:;;<)! The advantages of AB64 regarding bandwidth over %B64 disappear at sub-loop distances of more than @;; m!

signal and concentrate it in an 5thernet protocol over fibre up to the metro core location! 5thernet switches in the metro core location further concentrate the traffic through the concentration networ to the /" core networ ! 6ince the distance between the B64%8 in the street cabinet and the 5thernet switch in the metro core location is not limited by copper transmission characteristics it may be larger than before!

37

8any of the 8B0s may be closed down, or remain as a mere infrastructure node point because of the existing duct infrastructure, and be replaced by a metro core location! *e assume up to approximately ?;!;;; end customers to be concentrated in one future metro core location!4> /n many cases street cabinets are cascaded as shown in 0igure EI! #ormally all 67s are connected with a fibre feeder cable in order to connect the B64%8! Cut one might save B64%8s and the replacement of the street cabinet if the sub-loop length between the street cabinets of a higher order and the end customers do not exceed about @;; m! /n this case, some street cabinets of lower order may be closed down or just be ept as copper distribution frames and need not be replaced! The customers will then be connected by copper sub-loops passing through the 67 of lower order to the B64%8 in the 67 of higher order! /n order to consider this optimi=ation the model allows to use a reduction factor for the amount of street cabinets to be replaced and upgraded!
4> %ctual planning of competitive operators consider as well metro core locations with customer concentrations of only about E;!;;; customers!

2odel je programiran na takav nain da je jedan od navedeni) pristupa ar)itektura mora biti izabran kao prvi ulazni parametar 2odel je konstruiran kao bottom>up B5!7, tj izraunava trokove ulaganja potrebna za odre"eni stupanj pokrivenosti i trinog udjela, s obzirom na sve trokova elemente potrebne za proizvodnju uslugu (o e biti opisane u sljedeem sekcije u vie detalja ? G G 1((7>AD0B modela 0 1((7>AD0B bakrene pristupne linije, koja je danas kraj u 2D1 mjestima, bit e se skratiti, a zatim zavriti u ulici kabineta (ijekom ove krae bakar pod>petlje, AD0B signal irokopojasni moe biti transmittedE< /lica ormaria moraju biti mijenjaju u kako bi se mogli instalirati D0B&2s, koja prekinuti elektrini bakra E< raspoloiva brzina stope AD0B su jako ovisi o duljini linije bakra, vidi Nulf (:;;J) ili Nilliamson i sur (:;;<) 'rednosti AD0B u vezi propusnost preko &D0B>a nestati u sub>loop udaljenosti vie od @;; m signala i koncentrirati u 4t)ernet protokol vie vlakana do mjesta 2etro jezgre 4t)ernet preklopnika u mjestu 2etro jezgra dodatno usredotoiti promet kroz koncentracija mree na !' temeljne mree Cudui da je udaljenost izme"u D0B&2 u ulici kabinet i 4t)ernet preklopnik u mjestu 2etro jezgra nije ogranien bakra karakteristike prijenosa moe biti vee nego prije 2nogi od 2D1s moe biti zatvorena, ili ostati samo infrastruktura vor toka zbog postojee infrastrukture kanal, i biti zamijenjena mjestu 2etro jezgre 2i pretpostavljamo do otprilike ?;,;;; krajnjim korisnicima biti koncentrirana u jednom buduem 2etro jezgra location EK / mnogim sluajevima ulici ormari su kaskadna kao to je prikazano na slici GK *bino svi nadleno su povezani s vlaknima dovodni kabel kako bi povezali D0B&2 #o, moglo bi se spremati D0B&2s i zamjena ulice kabineta, ako pod>petlje duljine izme"u ulica ormari vieg reda i krajnji) kupaca ne premauju oko @;; m / tom sluaju, neki ulica ormari od nieg reda mogu biti zatvorena ili samo biti u bakra distribuciju okvira i ne moraju biti zamijenjena -upci e biti povezani bakra pod>petlje koja prolazi kroz 07 nie kako bi se D0B&2 u

38

07 vieg reda -ako bi se uzeti u obzir ovaj optimizaciju model omoguuje koritenje smanjenje faktor za iznos od ulice ormaria biti zamijenjena i nadograditi EK 0tvarni planiranje konkurentne operatora uzeti u obzir, kao i mjesta 2etro jezgra s kupcima koncentracije od samo oko G;,;;; kupaca

Fig re 6 Jse of existing (unbundled) sub-loops in an 0TT7-AB64 environment(

ill+stration 6tarting at the end customers the model considers the cost for the 7ustomer "remises 5'uipment (7"5) with an integrated AB64 port and up to : telephone access ports and ? 5thernet interfaces for the customer e'uipment! The sub-loop to the B64%8 is rented for the regulated wholesale sub-loop unbundling fee! -ne time costs are ta en account of by a mar up of :;F! *e consider the exchange of the street cabinet, which now needs electrical power, an uninterruptible power supply (J"6) and air conditioning! The B64%8 inside will be expanded with customer port cards according to the mar et share reached! The maximum si=e of the B64%8 can be selected and support up to ?<; "orts typically! The B64%8 is connected per fibre pair up to the metro core location, where the fibres pass an optical distribution frame before they are connected to the 5thernet switch! The cost for these ports in the 874 switches are the final cost component of the access networ ! The other cost of the 874 is considered in the cost for the concentrator networ ! /n the case a second mover intends to roll out a separate AB64 infrastructure he needs to collocate at, or access, the street cabinet in order to obtain unbundled access to the

39

(copper) sub-loop! The common use of the same street cabinet can be considered by selecting a parameter! /n this case the cost for the street cabinet is increased by a parameter (which might be varied, default E@F) for the cabinet and the power supply and air conditioning (default >@F) and then divided by the two parties (@;F each<?)! -therwise a second street cabinet will be installed which then has to be connected to the incumbent.s street cabinet (the street distribution frame in the 67), nown as virtual collocation! The amount of fibres needed determines the amount of fibre cables and conse'uently the amount of subducts needed! /n our model the standard duct infrastructure considers a trench with : ducts of E;; mm diameter, which is subdivided into ? subducts, each being able to contain one cable of E?< fibre pairs! The model allows to deviate from these assumptions, if other standards have been explicitly implemented! Cesides the ducts, manholes, handholes and sleeves3 bushes are considered in a parameteri=ed manner for each of the clusters and segments! This infrastructure may be used by different usages! /t is e!g!very li ely that the infrastructure of the distribution area can be used for the feeder cables (between the street cabinet and the 8B0 site) as well and it may be used for the cables in the segment between the 8B0 site and the 874 (metro core location), which we call the bac haul segment! 4i ewise, in some parts there may exist the possibility to share the construction of trenches and ducts with other operators or utilities! The model allows to consider the common use of infrastructure independently in each of the clusters (Table D) and for each of the three segments (distribution, feeder, bac haul)! /n many countries it is not unusual to use aerial cabling in the distribution segment, notably in the less populated (e!g! rural) areas! The model allows to consider this case( there are two parameters the one denoting the percentage of homes per cluster being accessed by aerial cabling, the other reflecting if this infrastructure is used in a shared manner! /n addition, the amount of ducts being rented from others may be considered as a percentage per cluster! 0or all fibre cables we do not consider pure buried cables, rather we concentrate on the use of ducts or aerial installation! The use of ducts in the distribution cable segment

40

improves the possibility to exchange the cables in the case of repair or to add cables in the case of additional capacity needs!

?!E!: The 0TT1 "-# model

0TT1 passive optical networ s ("-#, 0igure :;) are characteri=ed by fibre cables down to each customer home (apartment, dwelling)! These fibres are concentrated in optical splitters onto one single fibre, which then is terminated in the metro core location
<? -ne might discuss other shares, e!g! per amount of customers connected

on a so called -ptical 4ine Terminator (-4T)! %t the customer side the fibre terminates in a so called -ptical #etwor Jnit (-#J) in the case of multiple customers or -ptical #etwor Terminator (-#T) in the case of a single customer! *e refer in this study to both cases as -#J! Bownstream optical signals are transmitted from the -4T in a broadcast manner over the single fibre to the splitter, where they are mirrored onto all end customer fibres and received by all -#Js! %n -#J addressed transfers the signal to the customer e'uipment connected (e!g! telephone or 5thernet port)! The -#J is connected to the concentration networ via 5thernet ports (E; $bit3s)! The upstream signals up to the -4T should not collide on the single fibre between the splitter and the -4T! The -4T therefore may assign transmission rights to -#Js if re'uested! Cecause of this internal "-# protocol between the -4T and the -#Js the transmission capacity of the system is limited and shared between all users connected! /n a state of the art $"-# system the downstream bandwidth (shared by all customers behind the splitter, i!e! in current implementations typically >: or D? customers) is limited to :,@ $bit3s and upstream to E,:@ $bit3s! This may change over time, re'uiring, however, the replacement of all the electronic systems connected to the same tree! The splitters may be cascaded, as shown in 0igure :;! Thus, this approach enables to connect e!g! all customers of a building in the basement or several buildings at a point similar to the street cabinets! The sum of the customers connected should not exceed D? (state of the art) per -4T splitter string (fibre) (e!g! one splitter with E(D?, or two layers with E(< each, or E(>:, ,)! The splitters are pure passive optical components which need no power supply! They may be installed in a street cabinet, a man- or handhole or they may be buried (in a sleeve)! The model allows to consider these

41

options, but it restricts cascading to one splitter outside the building and one in the basement!
'oevi na kraju kupci modela smatra da je troak za kupca 'rostorije *prema (7'4) s integriranim AD0B luka i do : telefonske prikljuke i ? 4t)ernet suelja za kupca opreme 'od>petlje na D0B&2 se iznajmljuje za regulirane veleprodaja pod>petlje naknadu Medno vrijeme su trokovi uzimaju u obzir od strane obiljeavati od :;H 0matramo razmjenu ulice vladi, koja sada potreba elektrine energije, neprekidni izvor napajanja (/'0) i klima ure"aj D0B&2 iznutra e biti proiren s kupcima port kartice u skladu s trinim udjelom postignut 2aksimalna veliina D0B&2 moe biti odabran i podrka do ?<; Buka obino D0B&2 je spojen po vlakana par do mjesta 2etro jezgre, gdje vlakna prolaze optiki razdjelnik prije nego to su povezani s 4t)ernet preklopnik (roak za ti) luka u 27B prekidai su konane cijene dio pristupne mree Drugi troak 27B je uzeti u obzir troak za koncentrator mreu / sluaju drugi pokreta namjerava ponuditi zasebne AD0B infrastrukturu mu treba na rasporediti na, ili pristup, ulica kabineta kako bi dobili pristup izdvojenoj (Cakar) pod>petlje 9ajedniko koritenje istoj ulici vlada moe smatrati za odabirom parametra / tom sluaju troak za ulicu kabinet je porasla parametar (koji moe biti raznolik, default G@H) za kabinet i napajanje i klima ure"aj (zadano =@H), a zatim podijeljena dvije stranke (@;H eac)J;) !nae drugi ulica Alada e biti instaliran koje onda mora biti spojen na sadanji ulici kabineta (okvir ulica distribuciju u 07), poznat kao virtualni svrstavanje !znos od vlakana potrebni) odre"uje koliinu vlakana i time u iznosu od subducts potrebno / naem modelu standardne kanal infrastrukture smatra rova sa : kanala G;; mm promjera, koji je podijeljen u ? subducts, od koji) je svaki u mogunosti da sadre jedan kabel G?< vlakno parova 2odel omoguava odstupanja od ovi) pretpostavki, ako drugim standardima eksplicitno su provedene *sim kanala, okana, )and)oles i 5ukavi 3 grmlje smatraju u parametrizirana nain za svaki od klastera i segmentima *va infrastruktura se moe koristiti razliite uzance (o je vjerojatno da e g verF infrastrukture na podruju distribucije moe se koristiti za umetanje kabela (izme"u ulica kabinet i 2D1 mjestu), kao i da se moe koristiti za kabele u segment izme"u 2D1 site>a i 27B (metro jezgre mjesto), to zovemo back)aul segmentu !sto tako, u nekim dijelovima moe postojati mogunost da se dijele izgradnja rovova i kanala s drugim operatorima ili komunalije 2odel omoguuje uzeti u obzir zajedniko koritenje infrastrukture neovisno u svakoj od skupina ((ablica E) i za svaku od tri segmenta (distribucija, feeder, back)aul) / mnogim zemljama to nije neobino za koritenje zrani) kabliranje u distribuciji segmentu, osobito u manje naseljena (npr ruralni)) podruja 2odel omoguuje da razmislite o ovom sluaju+ postoje dva parametra jednog oznaava postotak domova po klastera kao pristupiti iz zraka kabliranje, druga zrcalne, ako to infrastruktura koristi u zajednikim nain *sim toga, u iznosu od kanala koji se iznajmljuje od drugi), moe se smatrati postotak po klastera 9a sve vlakana ne smatramo istim pokopan kabela, a mi se usredotoiti na koritenje kanala i zrani) instalacija -oritenje kanala u segmentu distribucije kabel poboljava mogunost razmjene kabela u sluaju popravka ili za dodavanje kabela u sluaju dodatni) kapaciteta potrebe ? G : 2odel 1((D '*# 1((D pasivna svjetlo vodna mrea ('*#, 0lika :;) karakteriziraju vlakana do svakog kupca dom (stan, stan) *ve vlakna su koncentrirani u optiki 5azvodnici na jednom vlakana, koji se potom prestaje u mjestu 2etro jezgre J; 2oglo bi se raspravljati o drugim dionicama, npr po visini kupaca prikljueni) na tzv optiko linijsko (erminator (*B() #a strani kupca vlakana prestaje u tzv optika mrena jedinica (*#/) u sluaju vie kupaca ili optiki

42

2rea (erminator (*#() u sluaju jednog kupca 2i odnose u ovoj studiji u oba sluaja kao *#/ #izvodno optiki signali se prenose iz *B( u emitiranje nain tijekom jednog vlakna na splitter, gdje su zrcale na sve krajnjeg kupca vlakna i dobio sve teret *#/ obratio prenosi signal kupcu opreme spojene (npr telefon ili 4t)ernet port) *#/ je spojen na mreu preko 4t)ernet koncentracije luka (G; %bit 3 s) /zvodno signala do *B( ne smije se sudaraju na jednom vlakana izme"u razdjelnika i *B( *lt stoga moe dodijeliti prijenos prava na teret ako se trai Mer ove unutarnje '*# protokol izme"u *B( i teret prijenosa kapaciteta sustava je ogranien, a dijeli se izme"u svi) korisnika povezani / stanju u umjetnosti %'*# sustav nizvodno propusnost (dijele sve kupce iza razdjelnika, odnosno u tekuim implementacija obino =: ili E? korisnika) ograniena je na :,@ %bit 3 s, a uzvodno do G,:@ %bit 3 s (o moe mijenjati tijekom vremena, za)tijevaju, me"utim, zamjenu svi) elektroniki) sustava spojen na istog stabla ()e 5azvodnici moe biti kaskadna, kao to je prikazano na slici :; Dakle, ovaj pristup omoguuje da spojite npr svi kupci zgrade u podrumu ili vie gra"evina na mjestu slino na ulicu ormaria 9broj kupcima prikljuenim ne smije prelaziti E? (state of t)e art) po *B( razdjelnik niza (vlakna) (npr jednom podijeliti sa G+E?, ili dva slojeva s ;G+;< svaki, ili G+=:, ) 5azvodnici su iste pasivne optike komponente koji ne treba napajanje *ni mogu biti ugra"eni u ulici kabineta, ovjek ili )and)ole ili oni svibanj biti pokopan (u rukavu) 2odel omoguuje da razmislite o ovim mogunosti, ali to ograniava kaskadno jedan splitter izvan zgrade i jednu u podrumu

Figure 7 F

@ !O2 ar/hite/t+re: Ill+stration

/n the case a second mover intends to roll out a "-# infrastructure, instead of duplicating the infrastructure, it might share the already existing fibre end lines (distribution cables and drop cables <1) from the splitters down to the customer homes! This re'uires the splitter location and the distribution fibres to be accessible, which can e!g! be implemented by installing a street cabinet and an optical street distribution frame (-6B0, 0igure :E)! /n this case an additional cascaded splitter in the basement would prohibit the individual unbundling of an end customer! The unbundling of the fibre subloop is comparable to the unbundling of the copper sub-loop in the case of AB64! %n

43

advantage of sub-loop unbundling is cost reduction through the common use of the distribution layer, including the inhouse cabling, which has to be fibre in the 0TT1 "-# scenario!
<1 %ctually, one can distinguish between the distribution cables between the street cabinet and the pedestal and the drop cable between the pedestal and the basement of the customer premise! /n this study we refer to both as distribution cable!

/ sluaju drugi pokreta namjerava ponuditi '*# infrastrukture, umjesto umnoavanje infrastrukturu, to bi moglo dijeliti ve postojee linije kraju vlakana (distribucija kabela i ispustite cablesJG) iz 5azvodnici do kupca domove (o za)tijeva razdjelnika mjesto i distribuciju vlakna biti dostupan, koji moe na primjer se provodi instalacija ulica kabineta i optiki razdjelnik ulice (*0D1, 0lika :G) / ovom sluaju dodatni kaskadna razdjelnika u podrumu bi se zabraniti pojedinane razdvajanja krajnjeg kupca 5azdvajanje vlakna subloop se moe usporediti s razdvajanje bakra pod>petlje u sluaju AD0B prednost pod>petlje je smanjenje trokova kroz zajedniko koritenje distribucija sloj, ukljuujui in)ouse kabliranje, koji mora biti vlakana u 1((D '*# scenarij JG 9apravo, moe se razlikovati raspodjelu kabele izme"u ulica kabineta i postolje i pad kabel izme"u postolje i podrum od kupca prostor u tom 0tudija se odnosi na obje kao distribucije kabel

Figure

Fibre s+b)loop +nb+ndlin, in the /ase o- !O2: Ill+stration

The model allows to select this option by setting the appropriate parameters! The costs for the street cabinet are then increased and divided by the two operators, the cost for the -6B0 in the street cabinet is divided according to the ports used (see below)! "ower supply and air conditioning are not needed due to the passive nature of the e'uipment installed! %t the end-customer side the model considers the cost for the -#J with its telephone and 5thernet ports, for the inhouse cabling in the cases where it has to be installed by

44

the networ operator, the splitters (allowing different parameteri=ations regarding basement, outside buried or in a 67 with -6B0), the re'uired amount of fibres and cables over the three networ segments as described for AB64 (?!E!E), and for the -B0 and -#J on a port base (per splitter string, fibre)! The port in the 5thernet switch of the concentration networ is the last element considered in the subscriber access networ ! The -(6)B0 capacity is configured as needed( the end customer side is installed for E;;F of homes connected! The splitter side is installed according to the mar et share reached plus E;F spare capacity! Jnli e in the buried case, where the splitters are fixed connected to E;;F homes covered, in the shared case only that amount of splitters is considered which is needed to serve the assumed mar et share (plus a spare of E;F)! This adapted installation then is also considered in the upstream fibres etc! and at the 874 -B0, -4T and 5thernet switch ports! Thus the shared use of the sub-loops allows for significant savings, because the -6B0 allows to flexibly connect the customers to the e'uipment instead of fixing inactive potential customers to spare capacity!

?!E!> The 0TT1 "oint-to-"oint model

0TT1 "oint-to-"oint (":", 0igure :D) deploys fibre access lines to each of the customers. homes (apartments, dwellings)! Jnli e "-#, here the complete fibre capacity is available for each customer in the subscriber access networ ! Cecause of the uncertainties of the future bandwidth need of residential customers this appears to be the most future proof solution! Ceside that, already now an increasing number of business and wholesale customers need direct fibre access! *ithin the wholesale demand it is very probable that there will be increasing re'uests for fixed broadband access (R E;; 8bit3s) to the base stations of mobile operators! Thus these connections could be served within the same access networ architecture!
2odel omoguuje da odaberete ovu opciju postavljanjem odgovarajue parametre (rokovi za ulicu kabinet tada su poveane, a podijeljena dva operatera, cijena *0D1 u ulici vlada je podijeljena prema lukama se (vidi dolje) #apajanje i klimatizacija nije potrebna zbog pasivne naravi opreme instalirane #a kraju, kupac strani model analizira troak za *#/ sa svojim telefonom i 4t)ernet portovi, za in)ouse kabliranje u sluajevima gdje mora biti instaliran od strane mrenog operatora, 5azvodnici (doputajui razliita parameterizations u vezi podrum, izvan pokopan ili u 07 s *0D1), potrebnu koliinu vlakana i kabela preko tri mrena segmenta kao to je opisano za AD0B (? G G), a za *D1 i *#/ na luku bazi (po razdjelnika niz, vlakna) Buka u 4t)ernet preklopnik za

45

koncentracija mrea je posljednji element uzeti u obzir mrei pretplatnika pristup * (0) D1 -apacitet je konfiguriran po potrebi+ sa strane krajnjeg kupca je instaliran za G;;H domova prikljueni 5azdjelnik strana je instaliran u skladu s trinim udjelom dosegla plus G;H rezervni) kapaciteta 9a razliku od pokopan sluaju, gdje su 5azvodnici fiksno spojen na G;;H domova pokriveno, u zajednikom sluaju samo da je iznos 5azvodnici se smatra koja je potrebna da slui preuzeo udio na tritu (plus rezervni od G;H) *vaj prilago"eni instalacija onda se tako"er smatra u uzvodnom vlakana itd i na 27B *D1, *B( i 4t)ernet preklopnik luke (ako je zajedniko koritenje pod>petlje omoguuje znaajne utede, jer *0D1 omoguuje fleksibilno povezivanje kupaca na opremu umjesto popravljajui neaktivne potencijalni) kupaca na pretek kapaciteta ? G = 1((D 'oint>to>'oint modela 1((D 'oint>to>'oint (':', 0lika :E) postavlja optike linije za svaki od kupaca kue (apartmani, stanovi) 9a razliku od '*#, ovdje potpuni vlakana kapacitet je za svakog kupca u mrei pretplatnika pristup 9bog neizvjesnosti budunosti bandIit) potreba rezidencijalnim korisnicima ove ini se da se najvie budue rjeenje dokaz *sim toga, ve sada sve vei broj poslovne i veleprodaja klijenti trebaju izravan pristup vlakana /nutar veliko potranja vrlo je vjerojatno da e biti sve vei za)tjevi za fiksne irokopojasne pristup (T G;; 2bit 3 s) za bazne stanice mobilni) operatera (ako ove veze mogao biti posluen u isti pristup mrene ar)itekture

Figure ! F

@ !oint)to)!oint: Ill+stration

The costs in this model variant consider the following networ elements of the subscriber access networ ( The fibre at the end customer is terminated by a 7"5 router
<1 6ee e!g! $robe and 5lbers (:;;<)!

with telephony and 5thernet interfaces, which transparently communicates with the central switch in the metro core location via 5thernet! *hile in the AB64 solution there is a port reduction for the central switch ports determined by the average number of customers per B64%8 (default up to E(?<;) and in the "-# solution there is a port reduction determined by the splitter ratio (typically E(D?), in the ":" case there is no reduction! The model assumes all homes of an area to be connected by a fibre! The

46

fibre starts as inhouse cable (considered, if not paid by the house owner) and is then E(E routed through the access networ using cables and ducts as described already in the AB64 solution (section ?!E!E)! -f course at the bac haul layer <3 now a major amount of ducts is needed! The fibres are terminated in the 874 at the networ side of the -B0! -nly those fibres connecting active customers will be patched to the switch side of the -B0 and then to the concentrating 5thernet switches! Thus the considered mar et share determines the need of the switch sided -B0 ports (plus E;F spare) and the switch ports!

?!E!? 7onsideration of regulatory measures

*e consider the following regulatory measures for second movers in the model( ) use of subducts (empty ducts) ) shared use of aerial infrastructure (poles, faSade mounted holders) ) use of dar fibre in the different networ segments (e!g! for bac haul) ) collocation at3 sharing of the street cabinets (in the case of AB64 or 0TT1) and shared use of the -6B0 (in the case of "-#) ) use of an unbundled sub-loop (copper in the case of AB64, fibre in the case of "-# (fibre 64J)) ) use of an unbundled fibre local loop (in the case of ":" (fibre 44J))! The unbundled use of subducts (being able to carry one cable) is considered as duct rental! The rental fee is calculated as the total cost for ducts, divided by the amount of used subducts in the different networ segments and clusters, annuali=ed as cost per subduct, meter and month! The amount of subducts needed is calculated out of the amount of fibres needed to deploy the networ ! The rental fee is calculated per cluster, if it is not regulated in a different manner! -ne should eep in mind that we assume that E;;F of the potential mar et will be connected by the chosen access networ architecture!
<3 6ee 0igure EG!

The shared use of aerial cabling infrastructure is considered by just sharing the cost between the two operators in e'ual parts! 6haring of aerial infrastructure by a second mover is possible wherever the incumbent uses aerial cabling! Theoretically a second mover could use less aerial infrastructure then the incumbent, but in practice we assume the second mover to use as much aerial as possible, because it is cheaper! The use of dar fibre is considered as fibre rental! The rental fee is calculated as the total cost for ducts and cables of the incumbent, divided by the amount of used fibres in

47

the different networ segments and clusters, annuali=ed as cost per fibre, meter and month! The amount of fibres needed is e'ual to the amount of fibres needed to deploy the networ ! The prices of the fibres are calculated per cluster! -ne should eep in mind that we assume that E;;F of the potential mar et will be connected by the chosen access networ architecture! That is e!g! in the case of "-#( all fibres needed to connect E;;F of the homes are already rented in the distribution segment! /n contrast to that 0ibre 64J only rents the fibres needed to connect the contracted customers! The calculation of the sharing of the street cabinets is already described in the appropriate cases above (AB64 and "-#)! The cost are increased compared to a single usage and then divided by two! The cost for 64J and 44J are derived from the incumbent business case similar to the cost of the fibre! Cut instead of calculating it per networ segment and cluster, the cost of the 64J and 44J are calculated out of the total cost over all relevant networ segments and those clusters, where the incumbent business case is viable (so that one can assume that he will install fibres over there)! The relevant networ segments for the fibre 44J last from the end customer to the metro core location (874)! Ceside that, a first mover has the possibility to commonly construct trenches and ducts with other operators and utilities and to construct aerial infrastructure wherever the incumbent does so!

160 O+r o&erall model approa/h: /hara/terization

-ur basic modeling relies upon the 4ong 2un /ncremental 7ost (42/7) approach in a bottom-up manner! That means we model the total cost of the services considered under efficient conditions, ta ing into account the cost of all networ elements needed to produce theses services! *e consider three different types of players in the #$% mar et( ) first mover, not being the incumbent ) incumbent as first mover ) second mover They may deploy their #$% networ s in one or the other of the above described technical architectures (AB64, "-#, ":", chapter ?!E)! *e assume that these players will serve all customer groups( ) residential, single play( voice ) residential, dual play( voice and internet ) residential, triple play( voice, internet and /"-TA ) business, mixed broadband services (A"#, /nternet, Aoice, ,) %dditional services (e!g! video on demand, gaming, ,) are not modeled, but could be

48

included by adding an ade'uate margin of these services only (and not the additional total revenues), since the cost are not contained in the model either! The -irst mo&er5 not bein, the in/+mbent, has to roll out the #$% networ to those areas (clusters) where the business will be viable, in a greenfield approach! /t can ta e a first mover price for its services! The in/+mbent as -irst mo&er will as well roll out the #$% networ in the viable areas! /t may have some advantages in sharing its infrastructure for telecommunications services not being considered in this model (li e leased lines)! 0urthermore it gains an extraordinary income by closing down and selling the 8B0 locations no longer needed<4! /t receives the same retail prices as we have assumed for the other first mover! The se/ond mo&er also covers the relevant clusters with a second broadband infrastructure, being able to cover E;;F of the homes in that area! Cut depending on the regulatory options (chapter ?!E!?) it does not need to construct all infrastructure on its own, but could rent parts of the infrastructure (ducts, fibres, etc!)! Jnless we assume the option of 64J or 44J the second mover has to provide for the availability of fibre (rented or constructed) to all homes! *e assume the retail price a second mover may achieve to be less than the prices for the first movers by E;F!
<4 The extraordinary revenue of the 8B0 sale reduces the investment needed per cluster (and is therefore distributed over time by reduced depreciations)! The average sales revenue per 8B0 and country can be chosen and is set by default to E mill! T (N"# reference), except "ortugal and 6pain (;,@ mill! T)!

?!:!E 6tatic modelling

The model approach we have chosen is static! *e compare the cost of the #$% business in a future year and compare it with the income received for a dedicated mar et share! /ncreasing the mar et share percent per percent and comparing the resulting revenue per customer with the cost per customer we determine the point, where, if at all, the income e'uals the cost! This is the critical mar et share above which the #$% business is profitable! /n reality every operator entering the new #$% business will experience ramp up cost until it reaches this critical mar et share! To neglect this cost underestimates the real cost experienced and even increases the effective mar et share needed to recover the

49

ramp up cost! Thus our results have to be interpreted as the minimum share needed, the reality might be worse concerning viability and replicability! -f course choosing this static approach neglects to consider the different dynamics of the mar et players! Jsually the incumbent starts with a very high mar et share, especially if one includes the wholesale access business! -n the contrary, a first or second mover, which is not the incumbent, normally starts with a lower mar et share or in exceptional cases even from the scratch! Thus, the ramp up cost for the incumbent will be lower, increasing the gap described in the results!

?!:!: 42/7 greenfield and existing infrastructures

The 42/7 approach implies to consider all costs incurred for the production of the services, e!g! those for all ducts needed! *e have ta en this approach for all cases considered! *hile for the competitive operators, as first or second movers, this will describe the cost they really experience because they newly construct, for an incumbent the situation is different! %n incumbent may use already existing infrastructures li e ducts or buildings! /f these are not depreciated yet they are related with cost! *hen they are already depreciated, only minor cost would incur! /n both cases the use of already existing infrastructure changes the point of view for the economic decision to roll out a #$% networ (e!g! time to mar et, architectural decisions, ,) and may improve the economics itself, lowering the really needed critical mar et share and allowing to roll out in areas which might not be viable under a full cost consideration! 6ince all results we present are based on the 42/7 approach the costs for all infrastructure needed is considered as well in the incumbent case! They may be ta en as opportunity cost! 0or the interpretation of the results one should eep these circumstances in mind!

?!:!> 7ustomer demand and mar et shares

*e use the customer demand in the model in two dimensions! The first is the share or mix of demand for the different types of services (single play, double play, triple play, ,), the second is the mar et share the operator achieves and serves for the customer mix! The customer mix in our model is not based on mar et research, but on reasonable assumptions, how many customers may remain with single play, how many will ta e up double or even triple play! 0or business customers we too the average proportion of business customers of E;F of the residential! The default relation within the residential

50

customers for single, dual or triple play is :;F, D@F and E@F, but the model can be adjusted to adopt different proportions! The mar et share an operator achieves is not based on any assumptions, because the way we model the results of viability uses the mar et share as a variable, being increased as long as the cost are still higher than the income in a specific cluster! The result is the critical mar et share needed to reach viability! 7ompared to other models the mar et share therefore is not an input, but the main output variable! Thus the 'uestion an operator in our model world might answer is not( Uwhat is the probable mar et share / can reach. (and put it into the model, e!g! to calculate the #"A), but rather( Uis it possible to reach even more than the critical mar et share the model gave me as output.! The mar et share we use to determine the critical point is a share of all possible customers, of all residential homes or households plus a mar up of E;F for the business customers! This possible mar et includes as well all households using 7able TA operators instead of traditional fixed networ operators, mobile-only households or households, that even do not have any telecommunication services at all! -nly a part of it will be the mar et for broadband services! 1ence the addressable or the broadband mar et are smaller than our total mar et base! This has to be ept in mind interpreting the mar et share we use in our study!

163 Model inp+t

The model itself is based on */NVs long standing experience in 42/7 bottom-up modeling and our networ engineering experience! Cut a generic model needs concrete data! 57T% commissioned */N to calculate concrete results for six 5uropean countries( 0rance, $ermany, /taly, 6pain, 6weden and "ortugal! Thus we collected the data input needed to feed the model, especially the national particularities from 57T% members, and partly from regulatory authorities and other sources in these countries by a 'uestionnaire! 2esponses to 'uestionnaires were followed up by several interviews, concentrating on specific details! *e used these interviews also to reflect the networ architecture assumptions in each country and to get a realistic overview of the actual mar et developments and drivers regarding the deployment of different broadband access technologies! This enabled us to get a more substantiated view on the conditions actually influencing the business

51

cases in each country (e!g! high sub-loop lengths (0rance), manholes instead of street cabinets with poor option to enlarge the space or to cool down the heat emitting B64%86 on behalf of the competitors (6pain))! The model operates for the < clusters described in Table D! 6ome of the input parameters are cluster independent (e!g! %2"J), but most of them are cluster specific and have to be chosen for each cluster individually! The input parameters to determine the re&en+e side of the model are the %2"J per each customer group (single O triple play, business) and their relative shares! % cluster dependent input value is the amount of households in each cluster! The /ost side of the model uses a very differentiated set of input values! /ndependent of the clusters are the values for the central networ and services part (/" core networ , concentrator networ , /"-TA server3 service, amount of TA channels, bandwidth per TAchannel) and the values for 874 switches3 ports, -(6)B0 ports and patch cables and fibre splices! %ll of these elements are considered in the cost model! The price for the sub-loop rental (for the AB64 cases) belongs to this group, too! 8ain cluster specific values are the construction cost of ducts3cables, manholes, sleeves and aerial cables! The customer distribution per cluster is also relevant for the cost side, because it describes the amount of homes connected per cluster! Nnowledge about the structure of the existing copper networ per cluster is relevant in order to estimate the trench lengths needed for the #$% networ ! To this end, we use the number of 8B0s per cluster, the number of street cabinets per 8B0, the number of homes per street cabinet and the average length of the distribution, feeder and bac haul cable segments, respectively! Ta ing the product of the first three of these variables and summing up over the clusters yields a variable which allows to 'uantify the total number of possible subscribers! *e used the number calculated in this way to chec its plausibility against the available official statistical information! /n cases where the deviations were perceived to be too big, we have adjusted the aforementioned networ specific features! % major part of the model configuration comprises the appropriate architectural and other parameters for the different access networ solutions considered (i!e! AB64, "-# or ":", first mover, incumbent or second mover and the regulatory measures)! %n overview of the scenarios considered is given in the following section!

?!>!E #$% business cases considered

52

Cecause of the flexibility of the model and the amount of architectural and regulatory options, virtually a nearly unlimited number of scenarios and solutions can be produced! /n order to be able to compare the results of the different approaches not only within one country, but also between the countries, we determined :E standard cases per country (Table G), for which we produced the critical mar et shares (for each of the eight clusters)! To eep the architectural approaches (0TT7, "-#, ":") clean we did not mix them between the clusters or even within one cluster! *e also restricted ourselves to a limited amount of regulatory options, which a priori seemed reasonable to us! &et, even with these restrictions we produced altogether E:D cases! This number is reduced for those countries where AB64 is considered as being not3hardly feasible for technical reasons (i!e! 0rance and 6pain)! << The cases can be selected by choosing the appropriate combination of input parameters! The stand)alone operators acting as first movers are the base case of the model! They receive %2"Js as reported by the 57T% members! The only choice to be made is for the basic architecture (> cases)! #o regulatory measures are included! The in/+mbent as first mover is the first variation of the model which, however, does not re'uire any regulatory options! *e ta e account of the extraordinary income from the sale of a major amount of 8B0 sites by savings in the investment outlays, which then are distributed over time! 0urthermore, we assume the incumbent to have a competitive advantage compared to competitors( the incumbent is assumed to be able to use its infrastructure for at least one additional purpose, i!e! the infrastructure can be used for providing (an) additional service(s) or product(s) (e!g! leased lines) which in turn allows a further cost sharing regarding the infrastructure! The %2"J is the same as in the basic stand-alone case! The se/ond mo&ers are assumed to have E;F less revenue (%2"J) than the first movers! The reason is that it is harder for them to enter the mar et and they may not be successful by just having different (and better) services! 2ather, our observation is that the mar et entry has to be supported by a price discount! The "#$L cases for the se/ond mo&er use sub-loop unbundling (64J) in all of the cases considered, because the construction of new copper lines would never ma e

53

sense! 1ence all regulatory options considered only cover the bac haul and feeder segments of the subscriber access networ ! The !O2 cases for the se/ond mo&er allow the choice of using self constructed (or partly rented) or fibre 64J rented solutions! The first variants re'uire a fibre
<< To be more precise, we have reduced the number of cases for 0rance by <! /n 6pain we only calculated a single AB64 case, namely the one for the incumbent!

infrastructure to each of the homes covered, the 64J variant allows to rent just those fibre sub-loops which are necessary to connect the own customers! This is comparable to the standard copper 64J case (see AB64)! The regulatory options considered cover all three networ segments, but with fibre 64J the solution for the distribution segment is already set! *ithin the !0! cases for the se/ond mo&er the model provides to choose between own (and rented) infrastructure down to the customer homes or rented loops (fibre 44J) at the metro core location! This is comparable to the existing copper 44J at the 8B0 sites although it may allow more replicability due to the smaller number of metro core locations than 8B0 sites! The regulatory options considered cover all three networ segments, but with fibre 44J the solution for the distribution segment is already set as well! The case =?A shared in-rastr+/t+re assumes an efficient regulation where the second movers can rent and share <;F of the infrastructure needed to install own cable from the incumbent or other mar et players (e!g! sewers owned by the 7ity of "aris)! The infrastructure to install cables can be empty ducts, sewers or aerial cabling poles or faSade mounted holders, ,)! Cecause of the cost differences we use the cheapest solution as long as it is available and add empty ducts up to <;F! Typically the relations differ from cluster to cluster (e!g! the less dense populated the more aerial installations are used)! This approach is applied to all relevant networ segments! The rest of :;F of the infrastructure has to be constructed by the second mover itself! /n the case of AB64 (always with copper 64J) and "-# 64J we assume the operators to share the same street cabinet! The case 0?A shared in-rastr+/t+re assumes a less efficient regulation or less availability of rentable infrastructure, but is comparable to the <;F case in all other

54

dimensions! /n the case of AB64 it is assumed that the less efficient regulation does not allow to reali=e the collocation in a single street cabinet! 6o a second one has to be installed! -nly in the case of "-# 64J the collocation in the street cabinet is assumed (you only need the 67 with -6B0 for reali=ing the 64J)! The case =?A dark -ibre a//ess assumes an efficient regulation where the second mover can rent the amount of dar fibre needed instead of ducts! The amount needed differs between the architectures, since they reduce the fibre demand at the feeder and bac haul segments to a different degree! *e only consider cases of dar fibre access in combination with AB64 and "-# 64J<=! The fibre price differs between the clusters and considers the different construction approaches and cost of the incumbent (e!g!
<= /n the cases of dar fibre access without 44J364J it is assumed that all fibres to connect the homes of a cluster are rented or constructed in advance, and anyhow are available independently of the mar et share achieved! This ma es these cases very expensive and we excluded them from the considerations here!

aerial)! -nce again in the case of AB64 and "-# 64J we assume the operators to share the same street cabinet! The case 0?A dark -ibre a//ess assumes a less efficient regulation or less available infrastructure, but is comparable to the <;F case in all other dimensions! /n the case of AB64 it is assumed that the less efficient regulation does not allow to reali=e the collocation in a single street cabinet! Thus, a second one has to be installed! -nly in the case of "-# 64J the collocation in the street cabinet is assumed (you only need the 67 with -6B0 for reali=ing the 64J)! The case =?A dark -ibre; shared in-rastr+/t+re incorporates a combination of duct rental in those segments, where the amount of fibres in parallel is high, and fibre rental, where it is low! *e only consider this in combination with 64J cases ("-#, AB64), so the ducts are rented in the bac haul segment (874 O 8B0) and the fibres are rented in the feeder segment between the splitters3 street cabinets and the old 8B0 locations! This variation may reveal that a differentiated approach can be cheaper than a pure approach (e!g! duct rental only)!
(rokova u ovaj model varijanta uzeti u obzir sljedee elemente mree pretplatnik pristupne mree+ ()e vlakana na kraju kupac prestaje 7'4 router J? Aidi npr %robe i 4lbers (:;;<)

55

sa telefonija i 4t)ernet suelja, koji transparentno komunicira s sredinje prekida u poloaj 2etro jezgre putem 4t)erneta Dok je u AD0B rjeenje postoji je luka za smanjenje sredinji prekida luka odre"uje prosjean broj kupci po D0B&2 (zadano do G+?<;), au '*# rjeenje nalazi se luka 0manjenje odre"uje omjer razdjelnik (obino G+E?), u ':' sluaju ne postoji smanjenje 2odel pretpostavlja svim kuama podruja koje se povezuju vlakana vlakana poinje kao in)ouse kabel (uzeti u obzir, ako ne plaa vlasnik kue) i zatim ;G+;G preusmjeren kroz pristupne mree putem kabela i cijevi kao to je opisano ve u AD0B rjeenje (odjeljak ? G G) #aravno, na back)aul laFerJ@ sada glavni iznosu od kanala je potrebno Alakna se prestaje u 27B na mrenoj strani *D1 0amo oni vlakana povezuje aktivni kupci e biti skrpan na prekida strani *D1, a zatim na koncentraciji 4t)ernet preklopnika (ako smatra udio na tritu odre"uje potrebu prebaciti pristran *D1 luka (plus G;H rezervne) i prekida lukama ? G ? 5azmatranje regulatorne mjere 0matramo sljedee regulatorne mjere za drugi pokreta u modelu+ , koritenje subducts (prazna vodovi) , zajedniko koritenje zranog infrastrukture (stupovi, fasade postavljeni nositelji) , koritenje tamne vlakana u razliitim segmentima mree (npr za back)aul) , uvjetovanosti na 3 dijeljenje ulice ormara (u sluaju AD0B ili 1((D) i zajedniko koritenje *0D1 (u sluaju '*#) , koritenje izdvojenoj pod>petlje (bakrene u sluaju AD0B, vlakana u sluaju '*# (vlakna 0B/)) , koritenje izdvojenoj lokalnoj petlji vlakana (u sluaju ':' (vlakna BB/)) ()e izdvojenoj koritenje subducts (bitak u mogunosti nositi jedan kabel) smatra se cijev iznajmljivanje #ajamnine izraunava se kao ukupan troak za kanale, podijeljen s iznosom koristi subducts u razliitim segmentima mree i klastere, na godinjoj razini kao i cijene po oduzimati, metar i mjesec -oliina subducts potrebno je izraunati iz iznosu od vlakana potrebni) za implementaciju mree #ajamnine izraunava se po klastera, ako se ne regulira na drugaiji nain (reba imati na umu da se moe pretpostaviti da je G;;H od potencijalno trite e biti povezani izabrani pristupne mree ar)itekture J@ Aidi sliku GJ 9ajedniko koritenje infrastrukture zrani) kabliranje smatraju samo dijeljenje trokova izme"u dva operatera u jednakim dijelovima Dijeljenje infrastrukture zranog drugi pokreta je mogue tamo gdje je aktualni koristi antenu kabliranje (eoretski drugi pokreta mogao koristiti manje zraka infrastrukture tada aktualni, ali u praksi preuzeti drugi pokreta koristiti koliko zraka to je vie mogue, jer je jeftinije -oritenje tamno vlakana smatra vlakana najam #ajamnine izraunava se kao /kupni troak za cijevi i kabele sadanjeg, podijeljen iznos koriteni) vlakana u razliiti) mreni) segmenata i klastere, kao i na godinjoj razini cijena po vlakana, metar i mjesec !znos od vlakana potrebna je jednaka koliina vlakana potrebni) za implementaciju mreu 7ijene vlakana izraunate su po klastera (reba imati na umu da pretpostavljamo da je G;;H potencijalno trite e biti povezani odabrani pristupna mrea ar)itekture (o je npr u sluaju '*#+ sve vlakana potrebni) za spojite G;;H domova ve se iznajmljuju u distribuciji segmentu 9a razliku od na taj vlakana 0B/ samo iznajmljuje vlakna potrebna za povezivanje ugovorene kupce !zraun dijeljenje ulice ormaria je ve opisano u odgovarajuim sluajevima iznad (AD0B i '*#) (rokovi su poveani u odnosu na jednog koritenje, a zatim podijeljen s dva (roak za 0B/ i BB/ proizlaze iz sadanjeg poslovnog sluaja slina troak vlakana #o, umjesto da izrauna po mreni segment i klastera, cijena od 0B/ i BB/ izraunate su od ukupnog troka te imovine tijekom svi) relevantni) mree segmentima i oni) klastera, gdje je aktualni poslovni sluaj je izvediv (tako da se moe se pretpostaviti da e se instalirati vlakna tamo) 5elevantni mrea segmenti za vlakana BB/ traju od krajnjeg kupca na mjesto metro jezgre (27B) *sim toga, prvi pokreta ima mogunost izgradnje obino rovova i kanala s ostalim operaterima i komunalne i infrastrukture za izgradnju zrani) gdje

56

sadanji to ini ?,: #a ukupni modela pristupa+ karakterizacija #aa osnovna modeliranje oslanja se na dugoj vonji inkrementalnog troka (B5!7) pristup u odozdo prema gore nain (o znai da model ukupni) trokova usluga smatra pod uinkovit uvjetima, uzimajui u obzir troak svim elementima mree potrebno za proizvodnju teze usluge 0matramo tri razliite vrste igraa na tritu #%&+ , prvi pokreta, a ne kao aktualni , sadanji kao prvi pokreta , drugi pokreta *ni mogu rasporediti svoje #%& mree u jednom ili drugom od gore opisanog te)nike ar)itekture (AD0B, '*#, ':', poglavlje ? G) 'retpostavljamo da su ti igrai e sluiti svim skupinama kupaca+ , stambene, jednu igrati+ glas , stambene, dvostruki igrati+ glasovni) i internetski) , stambene, triple plaF+ glas, internet i !'>(A , poslovni, mjeoviti irokopojasne usluge (A'#, !nternet, Aoice, ) Dodatne usluge (npr video na za)tjev, igre, ) nisu po uzoru, ali bi moglo biti ukljuena dodavanjem odgovarajue margine ti) usluga samo (a ne dodatne ukupne pri)ode), budui da cijene nisu sadrane u modelu bilo 'rvi pokreta, a ne kao sadanji, ima roll iz #%& mreu na one podruja (klastera), gdje posao e biti odriva, u greenfield pristup (o moe potrajati prvi pokreta cijenu za svoje usluge 0adanji kao prvi pokreta e, kao i razvaljajte #%& mree u odrive podrujima *n svibanj imati neke prednosti u dijeljenju svoji) infrastrukture za telekomunikacije usluge koje nisu uzeti u obzir u ovom modelu (kao iznajmljeni) vodova) *sim toga dobiva izvanredni) pri)oda zatvaranjem i prodaje 2D1 mjesta vie ne neededJE *n dobiva iste maloprodajne cijene, kao to smo pretpostavlja za druge prvi pokreta Drugi pokreta tako"er pokriva relevantne klastera s drugom irokopojasnog infrastrukture, biti u mogunosti pokriti G;;H domova u tom podruju #o, ovisno o regulatornog opcije (poglavlje ? G ?), ne treba graditi sva infrastruktura na vlastiti, ali bi se mogla unajmiti dijelova infrastrukture (cijevi, vlakna, i sl ) &ko pretpostavimo mogunost 0B/ ili BB/ drugi pokreta mora osigurati dostupnost vlakana (!znajmljuje ili izgra"ene) za sve domove 'retpostavljamo cijena na malo drugi pokreta moe postii da bude manja od cijene po prvi pokreta za G;H JE !zvanredna 'ri)odi od prodaje 2D1 smanjuje ulaganja potrebna za klaster (i 0toga distribuira tijekom vremena smanjuje deprecijacije) 'rosjena pri)od od prodaje po 2D1 i zemlja moe biti izabran i postavljen je po defaultu na G milijun U (-'# referenca), osim 'ortugal i 6panjolska (;,@ milijuna kuna U) ? : G 0tatiki modeliranje 2odel pristupa smo izabrali statian 2i smo usporediti troak #%& poslovanje u budunosti godinu dana i usporediti ga s pri)odima dobio za namjenski udio na tritu 'oveanje posto trinog udjela po posto, a usporedbom to je rezultiralo pri)oda po korisniku sa trokovima po narudbi odre"ujemo toke, gdje, ako uope, pri)od jednak troak (o je kritina trinog udjela iznad koje #%& posao je isplativo / stvarnosti svakog operatera ulaska u novi #%& posao e doivjeti rampa gore cijene dok se ne dostigne ovom kritinom udio na tritu 9a zanemariti ovaj troak podcjenjuje stvarni cijene doivio, pa ak i poveava trini udjel na snazi je potrebno da se oporavi rampa gore troak (ako nai rezultati moraju biti interpretirani kao minimalni udio potrebno, stvarnost moe biti jo gore o odrivosti i repliciranje #aravno, odabirom ove statiki pristup zanemaruje uzeti u obzir razliite dinamike na tritu igraa *bino sadanji poinje s vrlo visokim trinim udjelom, pogotovo ako se ukljuuje i veleprodaja pristup poslovanju #aprotiv, prvi ili

57

drugi pokreta, to nije sadanji, obino poinje s niim trinim udjelom ili u iznimnim sluajevima ak i od nule Dakle, izlaz se troak za sadanji e biti manji, poveava jaz opisane u rezultatima ? : : B5!7 greenfield i postojee infrastrukture ()e B5!7 pristup podrazumijeva uzeti u obzir sve trokove nastale za proizvodnju usluge, npr one za sve kanale potrebne 'oduzeli smo ovaj pristup za sve sluajeve uzeti u obzir Dok za natjecateljski operaterima, kao prvi ili drugi pokretai, to e opisuju trokovi su stvarno iskustvo, jer oni tek izgraditi, za sadanji je situacija drugaija 0adanji moe koristiti ve postojei infrastrukture kao to su cijevi ili zgrada &ko ti se ne amortizira ali oni su povezani s cijenom -ad su ve amortiziraju, samo manji troak bi nastati / oba sluajevima koritenje ve postojee infrastrukture mijenja gledita na ekonomski) odluka na razvaljajte #%& mree (npr vrijeme na tritu, ar)itektonske odluke, ) i moe poboljati ekonomiju sama, smanjenje stvarno potrebna kritina trini udio i doputajui da razvaljajte u podrujima koja ne moe biti izvediv pod punu cijenu razmatranje Cudui da su svi rezultati dajemo temelji se na pristupu B5!7 trokove za sve infrastrukture potrebno je uzeti u obzir kao dobro aktualni sluaj *ni mogu biti poduzete kao oportunitetni troak 9a interpretaciju rezultata treba drati ti) okolnosti na umu ? : = *cjena za)tjeva i trini) udjela 2i koristimo kupaca u modelu u dvije dimenzije 'rvi je udio ili mjeavina potranje za razliite vrste usluga (jednokrevetna igrati, dvokrevetne igrati, triple plaF, ), Drugi je trini udjel operatora ostvaruje i slui za kupca mijeati -orisnik mijeati u naem modelu se ne temelji na istraivanju trita, ali pod razumnim pretpostavke, kako mnogi kupci mogu ostati s jednom igrati, koliko e trajati do dvostruko ili ak triple plaF 9a poslovne korisnike uzeli smo prosjenu udio poslovnim korisnicima od G;H stambeni) 9adani odnos unutar stambeni) kupaca za jednu, dvije ili triple plaF je :;H, E@H i G@H, ali je model moe biti prilagoditi usvojiti razliitim omjerima (rini udjel operatora ostvaruje se ne temelji na bilo kakve pretpostavke, jer se nain na koji smo model rezultate odrivosti koristi trinog udjela kao varijablu, kao poveana dok cijene jo uvijek vei od pri)oda u odre"enom klasteru 5ezultat je kritina trini udio potrebni za postizanje odrivosti / usporedbi s drugim modelima trini udio, dakle nije ulaza, ali glavni izlaz varijable (ako pitanje operater u naem modelu svijeta moda je odgovor ne+ "6to je vjerojatno udio na tritu mogu postii "(i stavi ga u model, npr za izraun #0A), ali a+ PMe li mogue doi do ak i vie od kritine udio na tritu model je dao mi kao izlaz P (rini udjel se koriste za odre"ivanje kritine toke je udio svi) mogui) kupaca, sve domovima ili kuanstvima plus obiljeavati od G;H za poslovni) korisnika (o je mogue trite ukljuuje i sva domainstva pomou kabela (A operatera umjesto tradicionalne fiksne mree operatera, mobilnog samo kuanstava ili kuanstava, koji ak i ne imati bilo koji usluga telekomunikacija na sve 0amo dio to e biti na tritu za irokopojasne usluge 0toga adresabilni ili irokopojasni tritu su manji od nae ukupne tritu baza (o se mora imati na umu prevo"enje udio na tritu koje koristimo u naem istraivanju ?,= 2odel ulaz 2odel se temelji na N!- je dugogodinje iskustvo u B5!7 odozdo prema gore modeliranje i naoj mrei inenjering iskustvo #o, generiki model potrebama konkretne podataka 47(& naruila N!- izraunati konkretne rezultate za est europski) zemalja+ 1rancuska, #jemaka, !talija, 6panjolska, 6vedska i 'ortugal (ako prikupljeni podaci ulaz potrebno )raniti modela, posebno nacionalne posebnosti iz 47(& lanova, , a dijelom iz regulatorni) tijela i drugi) izvora u tim zemljama upitnik *dgovori na upitnici slijedi nekoliko intervjua, koncentriraju na odre"ene detalje -oristili smo ti) intervjua i da odraavaju pretpostavke mrena ar)itektura u svakoj zemlji i kako bi dobili realan pregled stvarni) razvoja trita i vozaa

58

u vezi implementacije razliiti) te)nologija irokopojasnog pristupa (o nam je omoguilo da biste dobili vie obrazloeni prikaz o uvjetima zapravo utjeu na poslovanje sluajevima u svakoj zemlji (npr visoki sub>loop duljina (1rancuska), a)tova umjesto ulice ormaria sa siromanima mogunost da poveanje prostora ili da se o)ladi topline zraenje D0B&20 u ime natjecatelja (6panjolska)) 2odel radi za < klastera u tablici E #eki od ulaznog parametri su klaster neovisni (npr &5'/), ali veina od nji) su klaster specifine i moraju biti izabrani za svaki od klastera pojedinano /lazni parametri za odre"ivanje strani pri)oda modela su &5'/ po svakog kupca skupine (singl > triple plaF, poslovni)) i relativni udjeli -lastera ovisan unos vrijednost je iznos kuanstava u svakoj skupini (roak strani model koristi vrlo diferencirani skup ulazni) vrijednosti 0amostalan klastera su vrijednosti za sredinje mree i usluga dio (!' jezgrene mree, -oncentrator mree, !'>(A posluitelj 3 usluge, koliina od (A kanala, irina pojasa po (Ac)annel) i vrijednosti za 27B sklopke 3 luka, * (0) D1 luka i patc) kablova i vlakana spojevi 0vi ovi elementi su uzeti u obzir cijenu modela 7ijena za sub>loop najam (za AD0B sluajeva) pripada ovoj skupini, previe %lavni klaster odre"ene vrijednosti izgradnje troak kanala 3 kabeli, a)tovi, rukavima i antenske kabele -upac raspodjela po klaster je tako"er relevantan za trokovne strane, jer opisuje iznos domova povezani po klastera 9nanje o strukturi postojee bakrene mree po klastera je relevantno kako bi se procjena rova duljine potrebne za #%& mreu / tu svr)u, mi koristiti broj 2D1s po klastera, broj ulice ormara po 2D1, broj kue po ulici kabinet, a prosjena duljina distribucije, ulaga i back)aul kabel segmentima, respektivno /zimajui proizvod od prva tri od ovi) varijabli i zbrajanjem vie klastera daje varijabla koja omoguava kvantificirati ukupan broj mogui) pretplatnika -oristili smo broj izraunat na taj nain provjeriti svoje vjerodostojnosti u odnosu na raspolaganju slubene statistike podatke / sluajevima gdje odstupanja su percipira kao prevelik, imamo prilago"en navedeni) mree odre"ene znaajke Aei dio modela konfiguraciji obu)vaa odgovarajue ar)itektonske i ostali parametri za razliite pristupne mree rjeenja smatra (npr AD0B, '*# ili ':', prvi pokreta, sadanji ili drugi pokreta i regulatorne mjere) pregled razmatrane scenarije je dano u sljedeem odjeljku ? = G #%& poslovni) sluajeva smatraju 9bog fleksibilnosti modela i iznos ar)itektonski) i regulatorni) mogunosti, gotovo gotovo neogranien broj scenarija i rjeenja mogu biti proizvedena Da bi se mogli usporediti rezultati razliiti) pristupa, ne samo unutar jednoj zemlji, ali i izme"u zemalja, utvrdili smo :G standarda predmeta po zemlje ((ablica J), za koje smo proizvodili kritine tritu dionica (za svaku od osam klastera) Da bi ar)itektonski) pristupa (1((7, '*#, ':') "istu" nismo i) ne mijeati izme"u klastera ili ak unutar jedne klastera (ako"er ogranieno sami ogranien iznos od regulatorni) opcija, koji a priori inilo razumnim za nas !pak, ak is tim ogranienjima proizveli smo ukupno G:E sluajeva *vaj broj je smanjen za one zemlje u kojima AD0B se smatra kao ne 3 teko izvedivo zbog te)niki) razloga (npr 1rancuska i 6panjolska) ;,JJ sluajevi moete odabrati tako to ete odabrati prikladnu kombinaciju ulazni) parametara 0amostalni operatori djeluju kao prvi pokreta su osnovni scenarij modela *ni dobivaju &5'/s iskazane po 47(& lanova Medini izbor da se napravi je za osnovne ar)itekture (= sluaja) #ema regulatorne mjere su ukljueni 0adanji kao prvi pokreta je prva promjena modela koji, me"utim, ne ne za)tijeva bilo koji regulatorne opcije 2i uzeti u obzir izvanredne pri)ode od prodaje glavni) iznos 2D1 stranica po utede u investicijskom izdataka, to onda su distribuirani tijekom vremena #adalje, pretpostavljamo aktualni imati "-onkurentnu prednost" u odnosu na konkurente+ tadanjeg se pretpostavlja da bi mogli koristiti svoje infrastrukture za barem jedan dodatni cilj, tj infrastruktura moe biti se koriste za pruanje () dodatne usluge (e) ili proizvod (e) (npr iznajmljeni) vodova), koji je u zauzvrat omoguuje daljnje dijeljenja trokova u svezi infrastrukture ()e &5'/ je isti kao i

59

u osnovnim samostalan predmet Drugi 2overs se pretpostavlja da imaju G;H manje pri)oda (&5'/) u odnosu na prvi 2overs 5azlog je da je tee za nji) za ulazak na trite, a oni svibanj ne biti uspjean je samo imaju razliite (i bolje) usluge /mjesto toga, naa promatranja da trite ulazak mora biti podran od strane cijeni popusta AD0B predmeta za drugi pokreta koritenje pod>petlje (0B/) u svim sluajevima u obzir, jer izgradnja novi) bakreni) vodova nikada ne bi smislu 0toga sve regulatorne opcije u obzir samo pokriti back)aul i dovodni segmenata mree pretplatnika pristup '*# predmeta za drugi pokreta dopustiti izbor pomou self izgra"ene (ili djelomino iznajmljuje) ili vlakna 0B/ iznajmljuje rjeenja 'rvi varijante za)tijevaju vlakana JJ Da budemo precizniji, mi smo smanjili broj sluajeva za 1rancusku za < / 6panjolskoj mi samo izraunati jednu AD0B sluaju, a to je jedan za aktualni infrastrukture kako bi svaki od domova pokriven je 0B/ varijanta omoguuje najam samo one vlakana pod>petlje koji su potrebni za povezivanje vlastiti) klijenata (o je usporedivo standardnim bakrenim 0B/ predmetu (vidi AD0B) 5egulatorna opcije smatra poklopac sva tri segmenta mree, ali s vlaknima 0B/ rjeenje za raspodjelu segmentu je ve postavljen /nutar ':' predmeta za drugi pokreta model omoguuje da biraju izme"u vlastite (i iznajmljuje) infrastruktura do kupca domovima ili iznajmljuje petlji (BB/ vlakna) na mjestu metroa jezgre (o je usporedivo s postojeim bakrenim BB/ na 2D1 mjesta, iako to moe omoguiti da se vie repliciranje zbog manjeg broja 2etro jezgre mjestima od 2D1 mjesta 5egulatorna opcije smatra pokriti sve tri mree segmentima, ali s vlaknima BB/ rjeenje za raspodjelu segmentu je ve postavljen kao dobro 0luaj <;H dijeli infrastrukture podrazumijeva uinkovit propisa kojima drugi 2overs mogu iznajmiti i dijeliti <;H infrastrukture potrebne za instalaciju vlastiti kabel iz sadanjeg ili drugi) sudionika na tritu (npr kanalizaciju u vlasnitvu %rada u 'arizu) !nfrastruktura za instalaciju kabela moe biti prazan kanala, kanalizacije ili antenski stubovi kablova ili fasada montiran nositelja, ) 9bog trokova razlika koristimo najjeftiniji rjeenje dok je na raspolaganju i dodati prazni kanali i do <;H *bino se odnosi razlikuju od klastera u klaster (npr manje gusta naseljena vie antena instalacija se koriste) *vaj pristup se primjenjuje na sve relevantne mree segmentima *statak od :;H infrastrukture mora biti izgra"ena u drugoj pokreta sama / sluaju AD0B (uvijek s bakrenim 0B/) i '*# 0B/ pretpostavljamo operatori za dijeljenje istoj ulici kabineta 0luaj :;H dijeli infrastrukture podrazumijeva manje uinkovita regulacija ili manje dostupnost iznajmiti infrastrukture, ali je usporediva s <;H sluaj u svim drugim dimenzije / sluaju AD0B pretpostavlja se da je manje uinkovita regulacija ne omoguiti da s)vate kolokacije u jednoj ulici kabineta Dakle, drugi mora biti instaliran 0amo u sluaju '*# 0B/ t)e svrstavanje u ulici vlada pretpostavlja (0amo trebate 07 s *0D1 za ostvarivanje 0B/) 0luaj <;H tamno vlakno pristup pretpostavlja uinkovitu regulaciju gdje je drugi pokreta mogu iznajmiti u iznosu od tamno vlakana potrebni) umjesto kanala !znos potreban razlikuje izme"u ar)itekture, budui da oni smanjuju vlakana potranje na ulagaa i back)aul segmenata razliiti) stupnjeva 2i samo uzeti u obzir sluajevima tamno optike u kombinaciji s AD0B i '*# 0B/J< Alakna cijena razlikuje izme"u klastera te razmatra razliite pristupe izgradnji i trokova sadanjeg (npr J< / sluaju tamno optike bez BB/ 3 0B/ pretpostavlja se da su svi vlakna za povezivanje kue klaster se iznajmljuju ili izgra"ena u unaprijed, a nekako su dostupni neovisno o tritu udio ostvaren (o ini tim sluajevima vrlo skupo, a mi i) iskljuiti iz razmatranja ovdje antena) Mo jednom u sluaju AD0B i '*# 0B/ pretpostavljamo operatorima na dijele isti ormar ulici 0luaj :;H tamno vlakno pristup pretpostavlja manje uinkovita propisa ili manje dostupni infrastrukture, ali je usporediva s <;H sluaj u svim drugim dimenzijama / sluaju

60

AD0B 'retpostavlja se da je manje uinkovita regulacija ne doputa da s)vate uvjetovanosti u jednoj ulici kabineta Dakle, drugi mora biti instaliran 0amo u sluaju '*# 0B/ t)e svrstavanje u ulici vlada pretpostavlja (samo trebate 07 s *0D1 za ostvarivanje 0B/) 0luaju <;H tamno vlakno 3 dijeli infrastrukture ukljuuje kombinaciju kanala najam u onim segmentima, gdje je koliina vlakana paralelno je visoka, i vlakana najam, gdje je niska 2i samo uzeti u obzir ovaj u kombinaciji s 0B/ sluajeva ('*#, AD0B), tako da kanalizaciju se iznajmljuju u back)aul segmentu (27B > 2D1), a vlakna se iznajmljuju u ulaga segment izme"u 5azvodnici 3 ulica ormari i stare 2D1 mjesta *va promjena moe otkriti da diferencirani pristup moe biti jeftiniji od iste pristup (npr kanal najam samo)

Tabela 4 Main ass+mptions /hara/terisin, the di--erent /ases o- o+r model

61

%s sensitivity we add the expenditures of second movers for infrastructure rented from the incumbent to the incumbents revenues per cluster as infrastructure wholesale revenue and investigate the effect on the incumbent.s critical mar et share and profitability!

161

ypi/al model o+tp+t

The main result of the model is the critical mar et share needed for the viability of the #$% business for the first movers and under certain circumstances for the second movers as well (replicability)! The calculation of the critical mar et share is done cluster per clusterH and the results for the clusters are independent from each other! -ur concept is illustrated in 0igure :G, which shows the cost curve and the average revenue of an operator in a particular cluster!
-ao to je osjetljivost smo dodali trokovima drugi pokreta za infrastrukturu iznajmljuje od sadanji na namjetenika pri)oda po clusteru kao infrastrukture na veliko pri)oda i istraiti utjecaj na sadanji kritina trini udio i profitabilnost ?,? (ipini rezultat modela %lavni rezultat modela je kritina trini udio potrebni) za odrivost #%& poslovanja za prvi 'objednici i pod odre"enim okolnostima za drugi 2overs, kao i (repliciranje) !zraun kritine trini udio je uinio klastera po klastera, te rezultati za klastera su neovisni jedni od drugi) nae -oncept je ilustrirano na slici :J, koja pokazuje krivulja trokova i prosjean pri)od operatora u odre"enoj skupini

Fig re 10 Betermination of the critical mar et share for a single cluster(

ill+stration The %2"J is given as an input parameter and is valid for all clusters! The total cost per subscriber and month for each cluster is calculated by the model dependent on the mar et share in this cluster! /t is the scale effect of large amounts of users which

62

decreases the cost per user with increasing mar et share! /ncreasing the mar et share percent per percent may end, as in this example, by cutting the revenue (%2"J) curve at the critical mar et share! The model increases the mar et share up to E;;F! %chieving a mar et share of E;;F, however, is not realistic, since the basis of E;;F comprises all possible customers, including those being connected to 7able TA networ s, mobile-only users and those which refuse to be hoo ed upon an electronic communications networ at all! Thus, the results have to be interpreted accordingly! The results for all clusters may be combined as illustrated in 0igure :<!
&5'/ je dano kao ulazni parametar, a vrijedi za sve skupine /kupni trokovi po pretplatnik i mjesec za svaki od klastera rauna se ovisno o modelu trini udio u ovoj skupini (o je mjerilo uinka veliki) koliina korisnika koji smanjuje troak po korisniku s poveanjem trinog udjela 'oveanje posto trinog udjela po posto svibanj kraj, kao u ovom primjeru, za rezanje pri)oda (&5'/) krivulja na kritinim trini udio 2odel poveava trini udio i do G;;H 'ostizanje trinog udjela od G;;H, me"utim, nije realno, budui da je osnova G;;H obu)vaa sve mogue kupce, ukljuujui i one su spojeni na -abelska (A mreama, pokretne samo korisnici i oni koji odbijaju biti zakaen na elektroniki komunikacijske mree na sve Dakle, rezultati moraju biti interpretirani u skladu s tim 5ezultati za sve skupine mogu se kombinirati kako je ilustrirano na slici :<

Figure 11 (riti/al market shares a/ross di--erent /l+sters: ill+stration

5ach of the points (on top of the blue dotted lines denoted with percentage values) reflects the critical mar et share of a specific cluster! The x- axis specifies a particular order of the potential subscriber (customer) base across the clusters( The order of the results (the order of the clusters) is ran ed according to the decreasing subscriber density of the clusters! Thus, the result for the densest populated cluster (cluster E) is always presented on the utmost left hand side (the critical mar et share in this cluster is

63

>> F, ;!: F of all customers live in this cluster)! The result for the second densest cluster (cluster :) follows next( (the critical mar et share in this cluster is ?I F)! The respective value on the x-axis denotes the sum of the potential customers in both clusters! /n our example below the aggregate share of the total customer base in the densest and second densest cluster is e'ual to :!? F and around E mill! subscribers live in these two clusters! /n the example below the critical mar et share in the third densest cluster (cluster >) is e'ual to D< FH an aggregate customer base of E>!G F e'ualling nearly D mill! subscribers lives in the three densest clusters and so on! The diagram ends on the right hand side with the cluster where the critical mar et share still remains below E;;F! -nce again, we want to stress that the critical mar et shares exhibited in this figure have to be interpreted as saying that at least >> F mar et share are needed in cluster E (?I F mar et share in cluster :, D< F mar et share in cluster >, G@ F mar et share in cluster ?) to ma e the #$% business in this cluster viable! The figures should not be interpreted as saying that all clusters up to cluster : need ?I F (up to cluster > D< F, up to cluster ? G@F) mar et share! The curve above the different critical mar et shares is a logarithmic interpolation of the single points!<> This curve aims at illustrating where the results might be if the clusters had been defined in a different manner or in different si=es! /t is worth to stress that in our model there is no subsidy of denser clusters being ta en into account to determine the critical mar et share! This approach, thus, allows to determine if an investment in the next less populated cluster is viable as such or not! Thus, we do not include any universal service considerations! 7oncrete results for the different cases and the different countries as well as their appropriate interpretation will be given in chapter @!
<> -ne could ta e as well other methods of interpolation than the logarithmic one! 6ince the results are independent from each other and to some extent depend on the cluster si=es any approach to interpolate may lead to misinterpretations under certain conditions! #evertheless, we choose this interpolation for illustration purposes!

16 OpBti rez+ltati primjene ,eneri8ko, modela + nekoliko '&ropskih zemalja

64

36< 7eneral res+lts

(E) *e modelled three architectural approaches for #$%, 0TT7-AB64, 0TT1-"-# and 0TT1-":"! /n general, their profitability (in terms of coverage and critical mar et share to be achieved) is ran ed in the order above, the most profitable is AB64, followed by "-# and then by ":"! This ran ing does not consider whether the different capabilities support high bandwidth, are future proof and ease an unbundling approach! 4i ewise, it does not consider the possible degree of replicability in the case of fibre 64J3 44J! 1>1
1>1 AB64 might not be a suitable solution for broadband access networ s due to technical or operational restrictions! -n the one hand, a major amount of copper sub-loops (e!g! :@F) is longer than E m (li e in 0rance with an average sub-loop length of G@;m) the bandwidth on these lines is reduced to %B64 or even less, unsuitable for high speed broadband transmission! -n the other hand, the street cabinets do not allow to disseminate the heat of the active e'uipment (the B64%8s) or only at prohibitive costs!

(:) The costs of access networ infrastructure depend on the population density of the area served! Therefore we define clusters of the same line density per country and calculate the profitability for each cluster independently! The results confirmed our basic assumption( the denser populated the more profitable the #$% business in that area! (>) %ll cases show that the roll-out for a #$% networ is not profitable for all regions (clusters) of a country, neither for the incumbent nor for its competitors 1>0! (?) "rofitability3viability in our model is measured by the si=e of the critical mar et share in a dedicated cluster needed for a revenue3cost brea even! The lower the critical mar et share the higher the profitability (and below certain values the replicability)! /n order to compare architectural approaches and3or regulatory measures for a country one does not only have to compare the critical mar et shares per cluster but also the profitable degree of population coverage! (@) The mar et share we use is the share of the total customer base, including TAcable networ and mobile-only users and the amount of users not using telecommunication networ s at all! Thus, the mar et for broadband services will effectively be smaller and the critical mar et shares in terms of the de facto addressable mar et will therefore be larger than the figures in this study! (D) *e modelled two first mover cases, one for the incumbent and one for an operator not having the incumbent history and advantages! The model results show an advantage for the incumbent in all three architectures due to the fact that it better ta es advantage of sharing the infrastructure with additional non #$% usages (e!g! leased lines) and of closing3selling of 8B0 sites! (G) The figures shown for the incumbent cases rely on two basic assumptions underestimating the profitability for the incumbent in comparison with the other operators, the static approach (no ramp up cost considered, better time to mar et

65

for the incumbent) and the 42/7 bottom-up type of modelling (cost considered for already existing and depreciated infrastructure) (see sections ?!:!E and ?!:!:)! (<) *e have modelled several regulatory measures relating to the use and share of infrastructure (section ?!E!?)! These measures can be combined with each other in rational variants! 6ome combinations of regulatory measures result in more efficient networ roll-outs than pure solutions of one type, depending on the architecture (e!g! in a ":" architecture the self construction of ducts in the bac haul segment may be more profitable than renting existing ducts or even dar
1>0 There is one exception for AB64 in /taly, which is at the edge of viability in the rural cluster (section @!>!:!:, Table :@)!

fibre1>3)! Thus, the choice between different regulatory options (wholesale products) increases profitability and hence replicability for second movers! (I) 2eplicability, if at all, is only given in the denser populated areas! (E;) The options of duct access or fibre access improve the profitability3 replicability of second movers, but still to a limited amount of population in the order of decreasing population density and the order of architectural solutions already described in (E) (AB64, "-#, ":")! They will not significantly improve replicability! (EE) 0ibre 44J in case of ":" and fibre 64J in case of "-# increase replicability significantly and enable viable competition in all clusters where a first mover rolls out the 0TT1 infrastructure! 2eplicability is not given in the less populated clusters (e!g! less suburban and below, depending on national circumstances)! (E:) %dditional revenues from an infrastructure wholesale business improve the business case for the incumbent even more (section @!?!:!?), lowering the critical mar et shares and perhaps enlarging the customer base, thus reducing the ris of investment! %ny wholesale offering improves the #$% profitability conditions of the incumbent! -ffering duct access, however, is more profitable than offering fibre 64J3 44J! (E>) /ncreasing the *%77 for the calculation of wholesale infrastructure products in order to consider the additional ris of an incumbent to invest in the #$% business (or for other reasons) results in deteriorating profitability and replicability for the competitors (section @!:!:!?) significantly and in improving the profitability for the incumbent! (E?) /ncreasing or decreasing the %2"J by the same percentage results in disproportionate effects on the critical mar et share! The relative effect of decreasing the %2"J is stronger than the relative effect of increasing it! /n general, the Uelasticity. is greater than one( the relative change of the critical mar et share is higher than the relative change of the %2"J (section @!E!:!?)! (E@) % decrease of infrastructure costs improves profitability and coverage significantly! 6everal possibilities can be observed( non-discriminatory use of existing public infrastructure at low cost (e!g! sewers in "aris), non-discriminatory use of existing infrastructure of the incumbent (e!g! 6ocrate infrastructure in /taly), low

66

construction costs (e!g! "ortugal), high degree and sharing of aerial infrastructure (e!g! "ortugal, /taly,,), the use of fibre 64J and 44J, and last but not least, effective and cooperative processes to get access to existing infrastructure (not
1>3 6ee sections @!?!:!: (Table >?) and @!@!:!: (Table ?>) for examples

considered in the cost model)! These factors have been used to parameteri=e the model for each country! (ED) The investment per home passed in the case of a stand-alone operator (not being the incumbent, without regulatory measures) connecting all homes in the viable clusters differs from country to country and is increasing from cluster to cluster! Table @; presents the investment per home passed in the urban cluster across all countries as an example1>1! The figures do not include investment for 7"5 or inhouse cabling since this investment will be conducted only if the customer is connected to the networ !

!a"e#a 5 /nvestment per home passed (in 5uro), urban cluster, stand-alone
-irst mo&erC
0vaka od toaka (na vr)u plave tokaste crte oznaene s postotkom vrijednosti) odraava kritine trini udio od specifini) klastera O>osi odre"uje odre"eni 5edoslijed potencijalni) pretplatnika (kupca) baze preko klastera+ 5edoslijed rezultate (redoslijed klastera) je rangirana prema smanjenju pretplatnika gustoa klastera Dakle, rezultat za najgui naseljene klastera ("cluster G) je uvijek prikazane na krajnje lijevoj strani (kritine trini udio u ovoj skupini je ==H, ;,:H svi) kupaca ive u ovoj skupini) 5ezultat za drugi najgui klastera ("cluster :") slijedi sljedei+ (kritine trini udio u ovoj skupini je ?KH) odnosno vrijednost na $>osi oznaava zbroj potencijalni) kupaca u oba klastera / naem primjeru ispod ukupan udio ukupnog kupaca u najgui i drugi najgua klastera iznosi :,?H, a oko G milijun pretplatnika ive u ove dvije skupine / primjeru ispod kritine trini udio u treem najgui klastera ("cluster =") je jednaka E<H, ukupni korisniku bazu od G=,JH jednaka gotovo E milijuna kuna pretplatnika ivi u tri skupine najgui i tako dalje dijagram zavrava na desnoj strani s klaster gdje se kritiki trini udio i dalje ostaje ispod G;;H Mo jednom, elimo naglasiti da kritiki trini udjeli izloene u ovoj slici moraju se tumaiti kao rei da su barem ==H udjela na tritu potrebno u skupini G (?KH trinog udjela u skupini :, E<H trinog udjela u skupini =, J@H trinog udjela u klaster ?) da bi #%& poslovanje u ovoj skupini izvediv 'odaci se ne bi trebao biti tumaiti kao rekavi da svi klasteri do klaster : potrebno ?KH (do klaster = E<H, do klaster ? J@H) udjela na tritu -rivulja iznad razliite kritine trita dionica je logaritamska interpolaciju jedan points JK *va krivulja ima za cilj ilustriraju gdje rezultati mogu biti, ako klasteri je definiran na drugaiji nain ili u razliitim veliinama Arijedno je naglasiti da u na model nema subvencija od gue nakupine se uzeti u obzir kako bi se utvrdilo kritine trini udio *vaj pristup, dakle, omoguava da li ulaganje u 0ljedea manje naseljena klastera je izvediv kao takav ili ne Dakle, mi ne ukljuuju bilo kakve univerzalne usluge razmatranja -onkretni rezultati za razliite sluajeve i razliiti) zemalja, kao i nji)ove primjereno tumaenje e se dati u poglavlju @ JK 2oglo bi se uzeti kao i druge metode interpolacije od logaritamska jedan Cudui da su rezultati neovisno jedni od drugi), a do neke mjere ovisi o klasteru veliinama bilo pristupa interpolirati moe dovesti do pogreni) tumaenja pod odre"enim uvjetima !pak, odaberete ovu interpolacija za ilustraciju svr)e G *pti (imovi primjene generikog modela u nekoliko 4vropski) zemalja

67

@,J ope rezultate (G) 2i smo po uzoru tri ar)itektonski) pristupa za #%&, 1((7>AD0B, 1((D '*#> i 1((D>':' *penito, nji)ova profitabilnost (u smislu pokrivenosti i kritini) trinog udjela koji se eli postii) je rangiran u red gore, najisplativije je AD0B, zatim '*# a potom ':' *vo rangiranje ne uzima u obzir je li razliite mogunosti podrke visoku propusnost, budui su dokaz i jednostavnost razdvajanja pristup !sto tako, ne uzima u obzir mogui stupanj repliciranje u sluaju vlakana 0B/ 3 BB/ GKG GKG AD0B ne moe biti prikladno rjeenje za irokopojasni pristup mreama zbog te)niki) ili pogonski) ogranienja 0 jedne strane, veliki iznos od bakra pod>petlje (npr :@H) je dulji od G km (kao to je u 1rancuskoj s prosjenom pod petlje duljine J@;m) bandIit) na tim prugama je smanjena na &D0B ili ak i manje, neprikladne za velike brzine prijenosa irokopojasni) 0 druge strane, ulice ormari ne doputaju irenje topline aktivne opreme (u D0B&2s) ili samo na zabrane trokove (:) (rokove pristupne mree infrastrukture ovisi o naseljenosti u 'odruje je sluio 9ato emo definirati skupine iste linije gustoa po zemlji i izraunati profitabilnost za svaki od klastera samostalno 5ezultati su potvrdili nae *snovna pretpostavka+ ()e gue naseljena vie isplativo t)e #%& posao u tom podruju (=) 0vi sluajevi pokazuju da je roll>out za #%& mrea nije isplativo za sve regije (-lastera) od zemlje, ni za sadanji ni za competitorsGK: (?) 'rofitabilnost 3 odrivost u naem modelu se mjeri veliina kritine tritu udio u posveen klasteru potrebno za pri)od 3 troak pokria 6to je nia kritine trini udio je vei profitabilnosti (i ispod odre"ene vrijednosti koje repliciranje) Da bi se usporediti ar)itektonski) pristupa i 3 ili regulatorne mjere za dravu se ne samo usporediti kritine tritu dionica po klastera, ali i isplativo stupanj pokrivenosti stanovnitva (@) (rini udjel mi koristimo je udio u ukupnom kupaca, ukljuujui i (Acable mree i mobilni) samo korisnike, a iznos od korisnika ne koristi telekomunikacijske mree na sve Dakle, trite irokopojasni) usluga e uinkovito biti manji i kritini trine udjele u odnosu na de facto adresabilni trita e stoga biti vea od brojki u ovoj studiji (E) 2i smo po uzoru prva dva sluaja pokreta, jedan za sadanji i jedan za operatera nemaju vladajui povijest i prednosti 2odel 5ezultati pokazuju prednost za aktualni u sve tri ar)itektura zbog injenice da je bolje prednosti dijeljenja infrastrukture uz ne #%& uzance (npr iznajmljeni) vodova) i zatvaranje 3 prodaja 2D1 mjesta (J) 'odaci prikazani za aktualni sluajeva oslanjaju na dvije osnovne pretpostavke podcjenjivanja profitabilnost za sadanji u usporedbi s drugim operatora, statiki pristup (nema rampu do cijene uzeti u obzir, bolje vrijeme na tritu za sadanji) i B5!7 odozdo tip modeliranja (cijena uzeti u obzir za ve postojee infrastrukture i amortiziraju) (vidi odjeljke ? : G i ? : :) (<) 2i smo po uzoru nekoliko regulatorne mjere koje se odnose na koritenje i udio infrastrukture (odjeljak ? G ?) (e mjere mogu se kombinirati jedni s drugima u racionalno varijante #eki kombinacije regulatorne mjere rezultirati u vie uinkovit mreni roll>outa od iste rjeenja jednog tipa, ovisno o ar)itekture (npr u ':' ar)itekturom sebe izgradnje kanala u back)aul segment moe biti vie isplativo nego iznajmljivanja postojei) vodova ili ak i tamno GK: 'ostoji jedna iznimka za AD0B u !taliji, koji je na rubu odrivosti u ruralnim klastera (odjeljak @ = : :, tablica :@) fibreGK=) Dakle, izbor izme"u razliiti) regulatorni) opcija (trgovina na veliko proizvoda) poveava profitabilnost i stoga repliciranje za drugi pokreta (K) repliciranje, ako uope, samo je u gue naseljenim podrujima

68

(G;) opcije kanala pristupa ili optike poboljati profitabilnost 3 repliciranje od drugi 2overs, ali jo uvijek ogranien iznos od stanovnitva u redu smanjuje gustoa naseljenosti i red ar)itektonski) rjeenja ve opisan u (G) (AD0B, '*#, ':') *ni ne e znaajno poboljati repliciranje (GG) 1ibre BB/ u sluaju ':' i vlakana 0B/ u sluaju poveanja '*# repliciranje znaajno i omoguiti odriv natjecanja u svim skupinama, gdje prvi pokreta role iz 1((D infrastrukturu 5epliciranje nije dano u manje naseljenim klasteri (#pr manje prigradski i nie, ovisno o nacionalnim okolnostima) (G:) dodatne pri)ode od infrastrukture veleprodaja poboljati poslovni sluaj za aktualni jo (odjeljak @ ? : ?), smanjenje kritine trine udjele, a moda i proirenju baze klijenata, ime se smanjuje rizik od ulaganja Cilo veleprodaja nudi poboljava #%& profitabilnost uvjetima sadanji 'onuda kanala pristupa, me"utim, vie isplativo nego prinos vlakna 0B/ 3 BB/ (G=) 'oveanje N&77 za izraun veliko infrastrukture proizvoda u -ako bi se uzeti u obzir dodatni rizik od sadanjeg ulagati u poslovne #%& (!li iz drugi) razloga) rezultate u pogoranje profitabilnosti te repliciranje za natjecatelja (odjeljak @ : : ?), znaajno i na poboljanje profitabilnosti za sadanji (G?) 'oveanje odnosno smanjenje &5'/ za isti postotak rezultata u nerazmjeran uinak na kritinim trini udio 5elativni uinak smanjenje &5'/ je jai nego relativni uinak je u porastu / *penito, "elastinost" je vei od jednog+ relativne promjene kritini) trini udio je vei od relativne promjene u &5'/ (odjeljak @ G : ?) (G@) smanjenje trokova infrastrukture poboljava profitabilnost i pokrivenost znaajno #ekoliko mogunosti moe se promatrati+ nediskriminirajue koritenje postojei) javni) infrastrukture na nisku cijenu (npr kanalizaciju u 'arizu), nediskriminirajui koritenje postojei) infrastruktura sadanjeg (npr 0ocrate infrastrukture u !taliji), niska trokovi izgradnje (npr 'ortugal), visok stupanj i dijeljenje zranog infrastrukture (#pr 'ortugal, !talija, ), koritenje vlakana 0B/ i BB/, i zadnji ali ne najmanje vano, uinkovit i zadruga procese kako bi dobili pristup postojee infrastrukture (ne GK= Aidi odjeljke @ ? : : (tablica =?) i @ @ : : ((ablica ?=) za primjere uzeti u obzir trokove model) (i faktori su koriteni za parameterize model za svaku zemlju (GE) /laganje po kui donio u sluaju samostalan operatora (nije aktualni, bez regulatorne mjere) povezuje sve domove u odrive klastera razlikuje od zemlje do zemlje i raste iz klastera u klaster (ablica @; prikazuje investicija po kui protekao je u urbanim klastera u svim zemljama kao e$ampleGK? 'odaci ne ukljuuju ulaganja za 7'4 ili in)ouse kabliranje jer ova investicija e se provoditi samo ako je kupac spojen na mreu (abela @ ulaganja po kui prolo (u eurima), urbane klastera, samostalan prvi pokreta V

The difference between the AB64 and the 0TT1 stand-alone architectures is mainly caused by the fact that the distribution cable segment in AB64 does not

69

have to be investedH rather, it is rented via copper 64J! "ortugal in general is cheaper in its construction costs, which is reflected in the investment re'uirements! 6weden has the shortest distribution cable length in the urban and less urban cluster, respectively! The effect of an attractively priced existing infrastructure can be observed in /taly (6ocrate) and 0rance! 1owever, in 0rance this effect is compensated by the long access lines! The AB64 investment is the highest in $ermany, followed by /taly, 6weden, 6pain and "ortugal! % comparison between $ermany and "ortugal points out that the investment in civil engineering is remar ably higher in $ermany than in "ortugal! /n "ortugal the digging cost per trench metre is relatively low and the same holds for the number of street cabinets which, in turn, determines the re'uired number of trenches lin ing each street cabinet to the metro core location! Coth parameters tend to decrease the investment in civil engineering! %nother aspect for the
1>1 *e have chosen the stand-alone case as a basis for comparison because it is defined by the lowest share of rented infrastructure and therefore it eliminates additional sources of differences between the countries! 0or the same reason we just have chosen a cluster of similar population density instead of calculating averages across all viable clusters, because these values are, besides others, influenced by the different %2"Js! 0or 6weden we have ta en the less urban instead of the urban cluster, reflecting that population density starts with less urban!

difference between the two countries is the average number of subscribers per street cabinet which is higher in "ortugal! /n combination with a slightly lower investment per street cabinet it leads to half the per-subscriber investment in $ermany! /f the roll-out focuses on 0TT1-"-#, an /talian operator can expect the lowest investment per home passed! -n the contrary, the investment will be highest for a $erman operator! /t is about two times higher than in /taly! The difference mainly results from the 6ocrate networ ! The /talian operator rents these existing ducts for about half of its re'uired infrastructure and since the rent is considered as -pex it does not contribute to the investment value! Be facto the investment figures in /taly are not comparable to those of the other countries! The same holds true of 0rance where the investment level is in-between the two countries! 6imilar to /taly, the 0rench operators use existing infrastructure (sewer systems) to some extent! 1owever, the systems only partly exist in the urban cluster which we consider for the investment analysis, so beside renting ducts the operator has also to ta e into account own civil engineering wor ! 1owever, the use of sewers leads to an investment which is lower than in $ermany, but which is at about the level expected in "ortugal! %n operator deploying 0TT1-":" faces highest investment in 0rance! The investment in $ermany is slightly lower due to the lower length of the distribution cables which is about two thirds of the level in 0rance! /taly is the best place to deploy ":" at least if investment is considered only! (EG) The investment per home connected depends on the cluster considered and on the mar et share being achieved (in Table @E we assume the urban cluster and a mar et share of @;F) 1>3! The figures include inhouse cabling and 7"5 in any of the countries! *hile the cost of the passive infrastructure differ due to varying

70

construction cost, existing infrastructure (ducts3 aerial cabling) and networ topology the cost of the active e'uipment more or less is the same in all countries!
1>3 *e compare one cluster with a dedicated mar et share! Ta ing the individual critical mar et shares per cluster would result in different values per architecture, cluster and country and would hardly be comparable!

!a"e#a 6 /nvestment per home connectedWW, mar et share @;F, urban cluster,
stand)alone -irst mo&erEID
5azlika izme"u AD0B i 1((D samostalne ar)itekture je uglavnom uzrokovano injenicom da je segment distribucije kabel u AD0B ne moraju biti uloeno, ve se iznajmljuje preko bakra 0B/ 'ortugal u cjelini je jeftinije u trokove izgradnje, koja se ogleda u investicijske za)tjevima 6vedska ima najkrai raspodjela duljine kabela u urbanim i manje urbane klastera, respektivno /inak po povoljnoj cijeni postojee infrastrukture moe se promatrati u !taliji (0ocrate) i 1rancuskoj 2e"utim, u 1rancuskoj u tom smislu nadomjeten je dugo pristup linije AD0B investicija je najvie u #jemakoj, a slijede !talija, 6vedska, 6panjolska i 'ortugala /sporedba izme"u #jemake i 'ortugala istie da ulaganja u gra"evinarstvu je znakovito via u #jemakoj nego u 'ortugalu / 'ortugalu kopanje cijena po metru rova je relativno niska i isti posjeduje za broj ulice ormaria koji se, pak, odre"uje potreban broj rovova povezivanja svake ulice kabinet na mjesto 2etro jezgre *ba parametra imaju tendenciju da se smanjiti ulaganja u gra"evinarstvu Drugi aspekt za GK? 2i smo odabrali samostalan sluaju kao osnova za usporedbu, jer je definirana najnia udio iznajmljuje infrastrukture i stoga eliminira dodatne izvore razlika izme"u zemljama !z istog razloga smo upravo odabrali skup sline gustoe naseljenosti, umjesto izraunavanje prosjeka u svim skupinama odriv, jer te vrijednosti su, izme"u ostalog, pod utjecajem od strane razliiti) &5'/s 9a 6vedska smo uzeti manje urbane umjesto urbani) klastera, odraava da je gustoa stanovnitva poinje s manje urbanim 5azlika izme"u dviju zemalja je prosjean broj pretplatnika po ulica kabinet to je vie u 'ortugalu / kombinaciji s neto niim investicija po ulici vlada vodi na pola po pretplatniku ulaganja u #jemaka &ko roll>out fokusira na 1((D '*#>, talijanski operater moe oekivati najmanji investicija po kui prolo #aprotiv, ulaganja e se najvie za #jemaki operater (o je oko dva puta vie nego u !taliji 5azlika se uglavnom 5ezultati iz 0ocrate mree (alijanski operater iznajmljuje ove postojee kanale oko polovice svoji) potrebne infrastrukture, a od najma se smatra *'4O to ne doprinosi vrijednosti investicije De facto ulaganja figure u !taliji se ne moe usporediti s onima iz drugi) zemalja !sto vrijedi i vrijedi 1rancuske gdje je ulaganje razini izme"u dviju zemalja 0lian u !taliju, 1rancuski operateri koriste postojeu infrastrukturu (kanalizacija) na neki mjeri 2e"utim, sustavi samo djelomino postoje u urbanim nakupina koja se uzeti u obzir za ulaganje analizu, tako da uz najam kanale operater (ako"er treba uzeti u obzir vlastite niskogradnje rad 2e"utim, koritenje kanalizacije dovodi do ulaganja, to je manje nego u #jemakoj, ali to je oko razini oekuje u 'ortugalu *perater uvo"enju 1((D>':' lica najvie ulaganja u 1rancuskoj ulaganja u #jemakoj je neto nii zbog manje duljine distribucijske kabeli koji je oko dvije treine razine u 1rancuskoj !talija je najbolje mjesto za implementaciju ':' barem ako je ulaganje se smatra samo (GJ) ulaganje po kui povezani ovisi o klasteru smatraju i

71

trini udjel ostvaruje (u tablici @G moemo pretpostaviti urbani klastera i trinim udjelom od @;H) GK@ 'odaci ukljuuju in)ouse kabliranje i 7'4 u bilo kojem od zemljama Dok je troak pasivne infrastrukture razlikuju zbog razliiti) trokova gradnje, postojee infrastrukture (cijevi 3 zrani) kablova) i mree topologija troak aktivne opreme vie ili manje isti u svim zemljama GK@ 2i smo usporediti jedan cluster sa posveen trini udio /zimajui pojedine kritine trinim udjelima po klaster bi rezultirati drugaije vrijednosti po ar)itekturi, klaster i zemlji, te e teko biti usporedive (abela E ulaganja po kui povezani VV, trini udio od @;H, urbano klastera, samostalni prvi moverGKE

The relatively high value for "-# in $ermany is inter alia caused by the relatively low number of customers per splitter site (street cabinet)! The investment for homes connected is higher than the one for homes passed, but in both cases the trend across the countries is 'uite similar! The similar trend is reasonable since the structural factors which determine the trend of homes passed investment, such as trench length, investment per trench metre and number of street cabinets, are the same as for the homes connected case! The higher level of the investment for homes connected relative to homes passed results from the e'uipment (7"5, trun cards, inhouse cabling for "-# and ":") additionally considered! 8oreover, the investment for the complete networ deployment is borne by only @;F of the potential customer base while the analysis on homes passed refers to E;;F! The additional costs differ across country and networ architecture! 0or AB64 they are lower than for "-# and ":"! The lower additional costs for AB64 mainly result from the use of already existing inhouse cabling on the customer premises! 1owever, the two 0TT1 techni'ues re'uire optical fibres within the premises, so investment for inhouse cabling becomes eminent! %cross countries the different values mainly result from the investment for inhouse cabling which rises from the southern to the northern countries! (E<) The structure of the investment between active and passive components based on a mar et share of @;F of homes connected (see (EG)) is shown in Table @: for the example of $ermany!
1>4 /n $ermany the critical mar et share for a ":" architecture in the urban cluster is @?F!

!a"e#a 7 6hares in investment for active and passive e'uipment, mar et share
3?A5 +rban /l+ster5 stand)alone -irst mo&er5 7ermany

72

5elativno visoke vrijednosti za '*# u #jemakoj je, izme"u ostalog, uzrokovane razmjerno mali broj korisnika po razdjelnika mjestu (ulica kabineta) /laganja u domove povezan je vea od one za domove prolo, ali u oba sluaja trend diljem zemlje je vrlo slina 0lian trend je razuman jer strukturalnim imbenicima koji odre"uju trend domova prolo ulaganja, kao to su duina rova, investicija po rova metar i broj ulice ormaria, su isti kao i za domove povezani sluaj viu razinu ulaganja za domove spojen u odnosu na domove donosi 5ezultati od opreme (7'4, prtljanik kartice, in)ouse kabliranje za '*# i ':') dodatno uzeti u obzir 6tovie, investicija za kompletnu mreu implementacije snosi samo @;H potencijalni) kupaca, dok analizu domove prolo odnosi na G;;H Dodatni trokovi razlikuju diljem zemlje i mrene ar)itekture za AD0B su nie nego za '*# i ':' #ii dodatni trokovi za AD0B uglavnom rezultat od koritenja ve postojei) in)ouse kabliranje na kupca prostorijama 2e"utim, dva 1((D te)nike za)tijevaju optiki) vlakana unutar prostora, tako da ulaganja za in)ouse kabliranje postaje ugledni Diljem zemlje u razliitim vrijednosti uglavnom rezultat od ulaganja za in)ouse kablova koji se die iz j na sjevernim zemljama (G<) 0truktura ulaganja izme"u aktivne i pasivne komponente temelji se na trinim udjelom od @;H domova povezan (vidi (GJ)) prikazana je u tablici @: za primjer #jemake GKE / #jemakoj kritine trini udio za ':' ar)itekture u urbanim klasteru je @?H

(abela J /djeli u investicijskim za aktivne i pasivne opreme, trini udio @;H, urbano klastera, samostalan prvi pokreta, #jemaka

The AB64 architecture relies on copper 64J and therefore re'uires less construction investment, thus less passive but more active investment for each street cabinet! The ":" architecture re'uires more active e'uipment because each customer connected has its separate port at the 874, while with "-# up to D? customers are concentrated on a single fibre and a central port by passive splitters! The difference of cable construction cost can be seen in the models, but are compensated partly by the difference of the active e'uipment! (EI) -ur model results show the different distribution between 7apex (7apital 5xpenditure) and -pex (-perational 5xpenditure) between the 0TT7 and 0TT1 architectures, already due to less 7apex in the case of AB64! The values in the case of a stand-alone non incumbent operator in the urban cluster with @;F mar et share are given in Table @>! *hile with 0TT73 AB64 the 7apex3 -pex ratio is around >@F3 D@F the respective ratio for 0TT1 is around D<F3 >:F! Cetween the two 0TT1 architectures there is no significant difference! The differences between the countries are caused by the already mentioned differences in the 7apex for the passive infrastructure!

73

!a"e#a 8 7apex3 -pex ratio (in F) across technologies and countries (mar et
share 3? A5 +rban /l+ster5 stand)alone -irst mo&er)
AD0B ar)itektura se oslanja na bakru 0B/ i stoga za)tijeva manje izgradnju investicija, dakle manje pasivni, ali vie aktivni) investicija za svaku ulica kabineta ':' ar)itektura za)tijeva vie aktivne opreme, jer svaki kupac povezan ima svoj zaseban ulaz na 27B, dok je kod '*# do E? kupci su koncentrirani na jednom vlakana i sredinja luka pasivni 5azvodnici 5azlika kabela trokova gradnje mogu se vidjeti u modelima, ali se nadoknaditi dijelom razliku od aktivne opreme (GK) #a model rezultati pokazuju razliite raspodjele izme"u kapitalni) ulaganja (kapital 5as)odi) i *'4O (operativni ras)odi) od 1((7 i 1((D ar)itekture, ve zbog manje -apitalna ulaganja u sluaju AD0B Arijednosti u sluaju samostalni ne lei operater u urbanim cluster sa @;H trini udio navedene su u tablici @= Dok je s 1((7 3 AD0B kapitalni) ulaganja 3 *'4O *mjer je oko =@H 3 E@H odnosno omjer za 1((D je oko E<H 3 =:H !zme"u dva 1((D ar)itekture ne postoji znaajna razlika razlike izme"u zemalja su uzrokovane ve spomenuti razlike u kapitalni) ulaganja za pasivne infrastrukture

(abela < -apitalna ulaganja 3 *'4O omjer (uH) preko te)nologije i zemalja (trita udio @;H, urbano klastera, stand>alone prvi pokreta)

36 Daklj+8ak
4 (on/l+sions and re/ommendations
461 Findin,s and /on/l+sions D!E!E The economics of #$%

74

(E) /nvestment in #$% is an inevitable next step for communication networ s to meet the future-proof re'uirements of capacity, speed and 'uality of electronic communications in the future! Cut the timing and urgency for #$% investments vary by country and depend partly on sufficiency of existing xB64 solutions! (:) Bespite the high investment re'uirements, fixed-line operators are under pressure to develop a #$% strategy! 0ailure to deliver services beyond %B64:K may otherwise result in the loss of customers due to a renascent cable TA industry! (>) #$% developments will also give rise to innovation opportunities at both the service3application and the infrastructure level! (?) #$% development will have a significant impact on future mar et structures of electronic communications networ sH this impact will be stronger than the impact of the #$# in general! (@) The economics of #$% will determine a new e'uilibrium between infrastructurebased and service competition! (D) #$% roll-out can rely on a more efficient networ architecture than the current "6T# access networ ! (G) Cesides networ technology3architecture factors and the cost of networ elements, the profitability of #$% roll-out and #$% replicability also critically depends on the ability of operators to generate higher %2"J and3or margins for services offered on #$% infrastructure! 1owever, sustainability of higher prices is doubtful given upward substitution from existing xB64 services and competition from cable TA! 5xperience from early broadband deployment also suggests that at high prices, demand for high speed services would be significantly restricted! (<) %ccess to buildings and sharing of in-house wiring is important to ensure effective competition! (I) *e share the doubts that there will be more than one rolling out of in-house wiring because of costs, lac of space in cable trays and refusal of property representatives to grant access to more than one operator! The first operator deploying fibre in a building will obtain a de facto monopoly (E;) %erial deployment of cable is characterised by lower 7apex but higher -pex! Bepending on local conditions (e!g! storms, snow, trees) 7apex savings can be overturned by increased -pex! #evertheless, under certain conditions and in certain countries aerial deployment of cable can reduce infrastructure costs and may be a factor to extend the roll-out of #$% geographically! (EE) /ncumbents are better placed than alternative operators to invest in #$% on a large scale( a! /ncumbents can rely on the availability of major networ elements needed for #$% (locations of street cabinets, ducts, fibre) where alternative operators still have to invest! b! /ncumbents can save (economically) investment by generating lump-sum revenues due to dismantling of 8B0s! c! /ncumbents can ma e better use of economies of scale and scope due to their larger subscriber base (<;-I;F of local loop, around @;F of retail broadband customers) compared to E;-E@F of the leading competitor, which they can

75

switch to #$%! d! %lternative operators usually face higher cost of capital than incumbents due to their si=e and ris position! e! Bue to the factors mentioned above, investments in #$% are more ris y for alternative operators than for incumbents! &et, alternative operators may act as first movers in #$%, because their current business model as a whole is under threat! (E:) /n case of 0TT1 the #$% architecture of ":" is more consistent with the principle of open networ s than a "-# architecture!

D!E!: 0indings from international comparison

(E) *ith more than EE mill! 0TTC31 subscribers, 9apan is leading #$% fibre deployment in the world! The 9apanese mar et reveals important insights for the 5uropean development( a! -nce 0TTC31 is available in the mar et, it has the potential to (easily) substitute for and overta e B64! b! /f the deployment of fibre is organised very cost-efficient, e!g! via aerial deployment, greater replication of fibre access seems to be possible than in a duct3buried cable environment! 2eplication is also supported by ultra-high densities in 9apanese cities! c! %ccess-based competition on the basis of unbundling of fibre loops does not foreclose competing fibre access infrastructure! d! Bespite infrastructure-based and access-based competition, the incumbent can eep a 68" position for 0TTC31! e! 6o far 0TTC31 has not increased %2"Js significantly above the level of %B64! (:) %lthough policy decisions regarding #$% are not completely ta en, it is remar able that the %ustralian $overnment has announced to invest in a nationwide 0TT# networ on the principle of open access to all service providers! This decision followed unsuccessful attempts to bring together the incumbent and alternative operators to jointly invest in a 0TT# infrastructure! (>) 6ingapore is going to set up a more governmentally controlled approach towards #$%( a! Cy means of a licensing approach (based on competitive bidding) passive infrastructure provision is structurally separated from active infrastructure provision! %ctive infrastructure provision is operationally separated from retail service provision! b! Coth wholesale companies will act as regulated monopolies, have to provide services on a non-discriminatory basis, face universal service obligations and will receive some public subsidies! (?) The J6 broadband mar et is mainly characterised by a duopoly between cable companies and the two fixed-line incumbents (in geographically separate areas)! 6ince the abolition of unbundling obligations regarding fibre in :;;>, competitive access providers only play a negligible role in the broadband mar et!

D!E!> "olicy and regulatory conclusions

(E) #$% developments are relevant to 8ar ets E, ?, @ and perhaps D of the second edition of the 5uropean 7ommission 2ecommendation on relevant product and services mar ets susceptible to ex-ante regulation! (:) #$% development per se does not re'uire to address the issue of sub-national

76

mar ets! #$% will only have an impact on the need to define sub-national mar ets for certain mar ets and3or to differentiate remedies on a geographic basis if the degree of replicability of access services will be increasing due to #$% investments! (>) Transparency about planned deployment of #$% networ s is a prere'uisite both for developing a proper regulatory framewor for effective transition and for providing economic efficient incentives for #$% deployment! This presumption holds in particular for the investment decisions of alternative operatorsH it is, however, of important relevance for incumbentsX investment decisions as well! (?) Bespite the fact that #2%s have the legal power based on %rt! @ 0B to re'uest the relevant information from operators, there is significant lac of transparency of the incumbentsX #$% strategy and the future of the existing unbundling wholesale services in many 8ember 6tates! 4ac of transparency can increase the level of sun cost in the transition to #$%, can generate economically unjustified first mover advantages and reduce the potential for competition in #$%! (@) 5nhancing the provision of rights of way for operators can reduce the civil engineering costs in deploying 0TTC31 #$% strategies and increase the pace of deployment! (D) /n order to facilitate competing fibre local loops, reduce costs and reduce multiple excavation and other civil wor s in municipalities, the sharing of existing ducts of telecommunications and cable companies, but also those of other utilities, is an important policy re'uirement! (G) 5fficient access to ducts re'uires transparency in available spare capacity in the form of easily accessible directories, data ban s or web portals! 7ase-by-case and duct-by-duct in'uiries do not fit with this re'uirement! #2%s have to ensure proper reference offers including cost-based prices and efficient 64%s! (<) #$% will re'uire a change in regulatory paradigms( The issue of access regulation in an #$% context no longer is solely how to provide access to existing networ elements or services but also how to structure new networ elements such that efficient access opportunities do emerge! (I) Jnless 5uropean regulation ta es proper and timely action, #$% deployment by incumbent operators can significantly reduce the (already limited) degree of competition in the access mar et currently reached on the basis of unbundling! (E;) /nvestment in #$% can generate significant and sustainable first-mover advantages! 0irst-mover advantages can limit the ability of second-movers to reach the necessary mar et shares for replicability and profitability! 5ven where our modelling results suggest replicability, in a real mar et environment this result may be jeopardised by first-mover advantages! %voiding incumbentsX first-mover advantages becomes a relevant goal of regulation under such circumstances (EE) 2egulatory intervention and proper access products are needed for a competitive #$% mar et( (a) Buct and dar fibre access increase the level of infrastructure replicability, but are not sufficient for viable competition!

77

(b) "hysical collocation at the street cabinet level increases the limited degree of replicability in case of 0TT7! (c) 0ibre full local loop unbundling (at metro core locations) and fibre sub-loop unbundling (at -6B0) increase the scope for competition significantly! (d) Citstream access remains relevant to support the ladder of investment concept, for areas of non-replicability of infrastructure and for business service providers! (e) /n addition, the regulatory framewor has to deal with the sun investments of competitors related to 44J infrastructure to enable a viable migration path to #$%! (E:) The limited degree of replicability of competing #$% infrastructure-based approaches underlines the growing importance of the ade'uate provision of bitstream access to support at least competition in the provision of #$% services! (E>) The availability of high-'uality bitstream is also crucial for business service providers, who are not targeting the mass mar et! They are often addressing rather widely dispersed customers on a nationwide or even pan-5uropean basis! %s they are addressing a significantly smaller customer base, this is not sufficient to reach the scale of operations economically justifying self provision of access services in many cases! (E?) The availability of bitstream access in a #$% environment furthermore supports the ladder of investment concept given the incumbentsX first mover advantages! Citstream access also generates competition e!g! in less urban or rural areas where the economics of #$% do not support replicability of #$% infrastructure at all! (E@) $iven the limited degree of replicability of #$%, bitstream will remain an important element of the regulatory strategy in an 0TTC31 environment! Citstream should be made available on a technologically neutral basis spanning the full capacity of the available infrastructure! (ED) The (high) ris of #$% investment, different costs in regions, different degrees of replicability and the ladder of investment concept can only be coped with if alternative operators can choose between different access opportunities Bepending on local roll-out conditions, in one city or for one networ layer, access to ducts may be the more efficient product! /n others it may be dar fibre! 0ormulating a hierarchy of access opportunities entails the ris of inefficient infrastructure investment! This conclusion is supported by our model results!

D!E!? 7onclusions based on our model results

(E) The economics of #$% networ s vary, according to our model results, across different technologies, networ architectures and different geographic areas depending on customer density and the cost of infrastructure deployment! (:) -ur model results show that #$% conditions differ among 8ember 6tates and within different regions of 8ember 6tates! This does not necessarily mean that mar ets have to be defined as sub-national mar ets! (>) % nationwide #$% roll-out is not profitable in any of the six countries analysed! This result holds for any #$% technology and even for a monopolistic mar et structure! (?) The area of #$% coverage beyond the level of profitable roll-out can only be

78

expanded with public funding or subsidies! (@) -ur model exhibits the importance of scale and scope economies limiting the degree of replicability! *here viable, replication of the incumbent #$% will re'uire a more significant scale and mar et share for alternative operators as compared to current unbundling business models, limiting the number of feasible competitors in the access networ ! (D) "roperly defined access remedies and3or wholesale products increase the degree of replicability of #$% access infrastructure and therefore the degree and potential for competition! (G) 2eplicating the incumbentsX AB64 networ roll-out by alternative operators is less viable than the current 44J approach of alternative operators! /n a AB64 #$% environment, the current degree of 44J based competition does not seem to be replicable! These results are similar to those generated in studies for #2%s in the #etherlands, /reland and Celgium! (<) -ur model results have proven the critical importance of efficient collocation at the level of street cabinets to replicate 0TT7 #$% strategies! Total cost of collocation can (only) be minimised if new street cabinets are ex-ante designed for collocation capabilities! (I) -ur model results have proven the critical and 'uantitative importance of efficient bac haul solutions between the street cabinet and the operatorXs networ node! 6tand-alone bac haul services limit the replicability of 0TT7 #$% development significantly! Thus, the availability of proper access products improves replicability! (E;) -ur model results support the expectation that collocation at the incumbents. street cabinet improves viability and replicability of AB64 by alternative operators compared to collocation nearby! (EE) %s indicated by other studies and3or analytical expectations, our model results support the finding that civil engineering cost and in-house wiring are ey barriers to replicability in 0TTC31 #$% deployment, but addressing these will not alone be sufficient to deliver competitive outcomes! (E:) /n an 0TT1 #$% environment, the degree of competition based on 44J as of today can only be replicated if fibre 64J (in case of "-# architecture) and3or fibre 44J (in case of ":" architecture) are available as access products! (E>) -ur model results show that incumbents can reduce their own costs by infrastructure sharing, can increase the profitability of their #$% roll-out and can reach profitability at a lower level of mar et share! This result suggests that investment cases of incumbents may be improved rather than undermined through open access regimes! (E?) The economics of 0TTx do not support multiple replication of the access networ !

79

/n case of (theoretical) replicability usually only one or two operators (in addition to the first mover) can profitably invest in #$% infrastructure! 0rom our model results we can derive a limited degree of replicability for certain denser populated regions and3or cities but not on a nationwide basis! (E@) -ur model results underline the importance of efficiency in the duplication of infrastructure! /f more access networ s are rolled out than suggested viable by the model or if particular access networ providers fail to achieve the critical mar et shares calculated, mar et players would either need to charge higher retail prices to recoup their investment or have to face major stranded investment failing to ma e a fair return on investment! % similar situation due to overinvestment has occurred when the internet bubble burst in :;;;3;E! (ED) -ur model results show symmetric opportunities for incumbents and alternative operators to reach the relevant mar et shares for a profitable #$% deployment! Jnder real mar et conditions there are, however, a variety of asymmetries between incumbents and alternative operators to invest in #$%! The major asymmetries result from the use of existing networ infrastructure and the large customer base! (EG) 6ensitivities on the level of the cost of capital show the critical dependency of #$% profitability from this parameter! /ncreasing the *%77 in 0rance for instance from E;!:@F to E@F reduces the viable coverage of a "-# 0TT1 infrastructure from E<!DF to D!<F of population! /n the viable areas the critical mar et shares for profitability increase significantly! /f only the *%77 for the regulated wholesale services of the 68" operator is increased by the same degree, the critical mar et shares (or the costs) of competitors increase significantly and the viably addressable customer base decreases! These results show, how careful regulators have to deal with a ris premium approach to incentivise investments in #$%! /f wholesale rates are fixed significantly above the relevant #$% project ris , replicability and competition can be heavily affected!

460 Re/ommendations D!:!E 2ecommendations addressed to 5uropean policy-ma ers

(E) The economics of rolling out fibre access networ s re'uire high mar et shares which in most cases are not compatible with effective competition! This is a long term issue relating to the high costs of laying physical infrastructure in a typical 5uropean environment (medium density, buried cables)! "olicy-ma ers should set realistic objectives for regulators on this basis which recognise that there are structural barriers to infrastructure-based competition in the access networ and more widely in rural areas which must be addressed by regulators to achieve effectively competitive outcomes! (:) -pen access models should be positive for investors and favoured by policy ma ers exploiting the potential of innovation and competition! (>) "olicy-ma ers should ta e care that local loop unbundling and sub-loop unbundling are defined in a technologically neutral manner that includes fibre lines and not just metallic lines! /t is li ely that regulated access to fibre networ s will be needed, in addition to duct access, to deliver effective competition in most cases!

80

(?) "olicy ma ers should aim for efficient investment so that infrastructure is rolled out profitably, with minimum ris for the economy and with a maximum reach! "olicyma ers should avoid ma ing assumptions on the degree of investment which is efficient, but enable operators to invest efficiently based on a set of options (the ladder of investment)! (@) "olicy ma ers should promote service competition and infrastructure-based competition at the same time! "rovided the wholesale price is right, regulated access to fibre does not preclude and can provide a platform for further infrastructure duplication where this is efficient! (D) "rovided the wholesale bitstream access price is right, *C% remains a ey element in the ladder of investment concept to develop mar ets and support mar et entry! "olicy ma ers therefore should continue to consider *C% as one of the important elements to develop competition in broadband access mar ets (G) /ncumbent operators retain a substantial advantage particularly through access to legacy infrastructure (ducts), often high retail mar et shares, ability to finance #$% investment from existing cash-flows, and information asymmetry! 5ven if duct access is addressed, first mover advantages are li ely to be gained by dominant operators due to regulatory lag! /ncumbents also have the capacity to reduce costs through selling other legacy property (particularly buildings) and may have fully or partially depreciated some of the underlying duct infrastructure! These advantages should be ta en into account when considering the relative positions of mar et players, their costs and capacity to invest! (<) "olicy-ma ers and regulators must act 'uic ly to identify their preferred model for #$% deployment and expectations regarding openness of networ s! *hilst policy ma ers cannot mandate particular networ structures, signaling expectations of reasonable access conditions in case of 68" and indicating that access pricing will be calculated on the basis of efficient architectures can help to ensure that access owners ta e account of re'uirements for openness in the networ architectures they adopt! (I) 2ewarding ris appropriately is important in ensuring that investment occurs! 6uggested solutions have been to increase the allowed *%77 for ris y projects or to re'uire up-front payments to benefit from access! "olicy ma ers should, however, be aware, that certain models of ris rewarding and pricing are not compatible with competition or may at least harm competition! 5uropean or national legislation should adopt the principle that regulated prices allow a fair return appropriately reflecting ris , and that pricing structures adopted to achieve this should be compatible with promoting effective competition! (E;) Cecause over-compensating investors through excessive access prices can negatively impact competition, policy-ma ers should not recommend particular (additional) ris premiums for all #$% investments! /nvesting in next generation access networ s may be ris y in some circumstances and may constitute relatively ris -free renewal of e'uipment in others! The assessment of the level of ris iness and calculation of the appropriate price should be carried out on a case by case basis by the regulator!

D!:!: 2ecommendations addressed to 5J 7ommission

81

(E) To fully reflect the development towards #$#3#$%, the definition of 8ar et E (in the new list of relevant mar ets) should no longer be defined service-specifically at least in the long-term! (:) /n the forthcoming 7ommission 2ecommendation on #$%, the 7ommission should( a! 5stablish a clear ladder of investment which reflects #$% developments thereby clearly including fibre 44J and 64J alongside duct access and wholesale bitstream access and explaining the role of each! b! %void ma ing general assumptions about the ris iness of #$% investments, but specify circumstances in which this investment may or may not be ris y c! 5nsure that any recommendations on access pricing to reflect ris do not unduly impact competition! % project-based *%77 could be a solution! 6tructures which re'uire unduly high upfront contributions for access should not be permitted by #2%s unless they are proven to be compatible with effective competition! d! 2ecognise the inherent differences in costs and ris profile between incumbents and entrants! This should in particular be recognised when considering reciprocal obligations amongst operators! e! 7learly distinguish recommendations concerning investment3ownership sharing (of ducts or fibre) on the one hand and mandated regulated access to an 68" infrastructure on the other! The legal basis and arrangements concerning each are different! /n the case of sharing, it should be recognised that effective voluntary arrangements are li ely only to emerge between parties with e'ual bargaining power and that the sharing of an infrastructure which is hard to replicate does not itself increase competition in that infrastructure and is li ely to re'uire regulatory supervision! f! 5nsure that mar ets are segmented only on the basis of actual competitive differences! #ext generation access developments would only affect segmentation where the economics results in further infrastructure replication than is currently present!

D!:!> 2ecommendations addressed to the 52$

(E) The 52$ should closely monitor the implementation of the 7ommon "osition on 2egulatory "rinciples of #$% by the individual #2%s, e!g! by generating measurable Ubest practice guidelines.! (:) The 52$ should further brea down and specify its position on in-house wiring in the #$%-context! (>) The 52$ should analyse physical access to *B8-based transmission systems in the access networ as an access option, evaluate the experience so far and develop an opinion on this option! (?) The 52$ should develop a 7ommon "osition on the regulatory implications of stranded investments of alternative operators resulting from changes in the incumbents. access networ s! (@) The 52$ should develop a 7ommon "osition on the price regulation of traditional unbundling and termination services in the transition phase characterised by overlay networ elements! (D) The 52$ should ma e recommendations on appropriate pricing structures which allow investment recovery in #$% without undermining competition!

82

D!:!? 2ecommendations addressed to #2%s

(E) 2egulators need to develop their regulatory approach for an #$% environment early to provide the necessary framewor and predictability to all mar et players to conduct efficient strategies and investments in #$%! (:) #2%s should adapt the existing ladder of investment concept to ta e account of #$% to reflect 0TT7 and 0TT1 deployments! (>) 2egulators should continue to consider an appropriately priced wholesale bitstream access as one ey step in the ladder of investment concept to develop competition in the broadband access mar et and to support mar et entry! (?) #2%s should develop unbundling approaches for fibre loops in the context of mar et analysis and remedies relating to the new 8ar et ?! The current unbundling approach defined for the copper "6T# networ should be expanded in a technologically neutral manner to fibre! /n case of a ":" architecture fibre local loop unbundling should be provided at the metro core locations! /n case of a "-# architecture fibre sub-loop unbundling should be provided at the -6B0! The location of the -6B0 should allow the efficient replication of networ infrastructure! (@) -ur model results have proven the critical importance of efficient collocation at the street cabinet to replicate 0TT7 #$% strategies of the incumbent! #2%s should therefore impose forms of collocation which minimise total costs of the incumbent and collocation see ers! (D) #2%s should ta e care of efficient bac haul services between the street cabinet and the operatorXs networ node by duct sharing and3or access to dar fibre giving the operators choice between both alternatives! (G) To minimise the level of sun costs in the transition to and to set proper incentives for efficient investments in #$%, #2%s should use their statutory powers immediately to ma e the transition to #$% in their respective country transparent if they havenXt done so yet! (<) #2%s should examine the possibility of regulatory measures for facilitating the sharing of inside wiring among operators in multi-dwelling units! (I) Cesides introducing remedies regarding duct access, #2%s should ta e care of efficient implementation mechanisms and administrative procedures to minimise transaction costs of duct accessH reference offers including cost based prices and 64%s should be providedH delivery periods and response times should be reasonable! (E;) #2%s should promote the availability of a directory, or web portal on available ducts and dar fibre, their capacity and their actual utilisation! (EE) #2%s should set up appeal procedures for dispute resolution regarding duct access and dar fibre which are a substitute of time-consuming court appeal procedures! (E:) Buct access should be mandated for the whole of the access and bac haul networ regardless of the architecture chosen by the 68" operator!

83

(E>) To realise the most efficient fibre unbundling solution and to minimise the total cost of unbundled access, #2%s should define and fix the unbundling access model for $"-# or 5"-# before the actual networ deployment! (E?) /"-bitstream access should be generally available in a #$% context with differentiated classes of service such that alternative operators have the chance to offer differentiated services and products! (E@) #2%s should ta e care that providers of passive access infrastructure do not unfairly discriminate between networ operators and do not re'uest monopoly prices for using passive networ elements! (ED) #2%s might consider to develop incentive compatible transparency mechanisms to motivate incumbents to provide relevant information on their #$% transition strategy at the earliest possible time! The length of the transition phase could for instance be made dependent on the proper and timely provision of information on #$% transition! (EG) 2egulators should ma e sure that architectures designed by dominant operators must respect the unbundling mandate in the most efficient manner possible! (E<) *here wholesale broadband access (bitstream) is mandated by the #2%, the 68" operator must ma e available, on a non-discriminatory basis, all technical capabilities embedded in its #$%, to enable alternative operators to define their own products on their own Po6! 8ulticast capability is one such technical capability! (EI) 2egulators should generally provide the option to choose between duct access and dar fibre access for bac haul lin s to enable the cost efficient construction of alternative networ s! (:;) #2%s have to ta e care that incumbents do not receive first-mover advantages in #$% deployment such that possible replicability will be de facto jeopardised! This means in particular that relevant access products are not only available in principle but are effectively available in due time! (:E) 2egulators should do more than they did with regard to J44 to shorten the gap between imposing #$% related remedies and the actual availability of the relevant wholesale services! /n the case of J44 the implementation delay amounted to several years! $iven the relevance of first-mover advantages similar gaps in #$% can endanger the (limited) potential of replicability even more or totally! (::) 0ibre access for 0TTC31 should ensure that the networ architecture allows access at economically viable access points in the networ which also enable innovation by competitors! 7learly determining such access obligations will also ensure that these re'uirements are ta en into account in the construction and architecture of the networ ! (:>) 0or circumstances where #$% roll-out to the building is viable, #2%s should examine the possibility of regulatory measures for facilitating the sharing of inside wiring among operators in multi-dwelling units!

84

D!:!@ 2ecommendations addressed to national governments and legislators

(E) $overnments should abolish uncertainty and lac of transparency on jurisdiction and dispute resolution regarding rights of way for operators! (:) /n order to secure consistent administrative procedures of obtaining rights of way, governments should set up a clear roadmap on how to obtain public rights of way permits by creating a centralised information point by using a central web portal! (>) 0ederal, regional, and3or local governments should harmonise administrative procedures for access to rights of way and ensuring consistency in the application of these procedures across a country! (?) To reduce the costs of civil engineering, governments (or regulators) should ensure that any fees associated with using public rights of way should be reduced or even eliminated! (@) $overnments should examine the feasibility of developing a framewor that would allow for 0TT1 providers to have access to the rights of way and ducts of municipal public utilities (water, gas, sewer, electricity, public transport, traffic lights, ,)! (D) $overnments should focus on lowering barriers to infrastructure installation and investment and ensuring fair access to publicly funded ducts and networ s whilst ensuring that national telecoms regulators are fully empowered to address additional bottlenec s to competition on a technologically neutral basis! (G) 0ederal, regional and3or local governments should ta e care that the costs of ducts, dar fibre and other infrastructure elements provided by public utilities or municipalities to operators should be fairly priced or even be reduced! The involvement of national telecoms regulators in the relevant procedures is recommended! (<) $overnments (or regulators) should provide a framewor to allow for joint construction of ducts that can be shared by potential investors in 0TT1! (I) %uthorities should give a fair consideration to (more) aerial deployment of fibre which can (under certain circumstances) be a very cost effective method of deployment! (E;) $overnments should introduce an infrastructure certification system for buildings to improve and standardise in-house3campus cabling (li e e!g! in Norea)! (EE) 0ederal, regional and3or local governments should prescribe in-house ducts for all, at least all new buildings to facilitate fibre deployment in buildings! (E:) $overnments should examine access to non-telecoms ducts for telcos, at least for ducts which have been funded directly or indirectly through public funds! (E>) /n case of public funding or subsidies for expanding the regional coverage of #$%, governments should ta e care of effective tender processes and regulated open access fibre architectures! (E?) %uthorities should ensure a proper documentation of all infrastructure laid out on

85

public grounds in order to enable the identification of free space and infrastructure owners easily and fast! /n addition, the use of the infrastructure on public grounds has to be documented so that spare capacity (e!g! sub-ducts, fibres) can be recognised fast and easily!

D!:!D 2ecommendations addressed to alternative operators

(E) %lternative operators should ta e care of the overall competitive landscape before ma ing #$% investment decisions! %gainst the bac drop of the potentials of intermodal competition, they must consider losses from not upgrading access networ s for #$% as well as gains from upgrading them! (:) %lternative operators should develop policies to construct joint ducts and fibre for infrastructure sharing between themselves! (>) %lternative operators should examine the role of public-private partnerships in the deployment of ducts and dar fibres as well as third party infrastructure providers for duct sharing! (?) /n countries and towns where alternative operators are first-movers in deploying 0TTC31, they should consider to offer wholesale services on a voluntary basis, e!g! in-house cabling, fibre sub-loops, fibre loops! (@) %lternative operators should consider swapping options for access infrastructure in different regions amongst themselves! (D) %lternative operators should be open for or even motivate private investors or the $overnment3local authorities to invest in passive fibre access infrastructure and to provide this infrastructure in a non-discriminatory way to different operators!

D!:!G 2ecommendations addressed to incumbent operators

(E) /ncumbents should provide information and transparency into their #$% deployment strategy to ensure that deployments are designed to be compliant with relevant regulatory principles! (:) /ncumbents could and should reduce their own ris and cost of rolling-out #$% by considering voluntary sharing of infrastructure and access provision to alternative operators!
E 9akljuci i preporuke E,G #alazi i zakljuci E G G ekonomiju #%& (G) /laganje u #%& je neizbjean sljedei korak za komunikacijske mree kako bi se zadovoljile budunost>dokaz za)tjeve kapaciteta, brzine i kvalitete elektroniki) komunikacije u budunosti #o, vrijeme i )itnosti za #%& ulaganja razlikuju se od zemlje do zemlje i ovise dijelom o dostatnosti postojei) $D0B rjeenja (:) Cez obzira na visoke investicije za)tjeve, fiksne linije operateri su pod pritiskom razviti strategiju #%& &ko za obavljanje usluga izvan &D0B: L mogu inae rezultirati gubitkom kupaca zbog preporo"en kabelske (A industriji (=) #%& razvoj e dovesti do inovacija mogunosti i na usluga 3 aplikacija i infrastrukture razini (?) #%& razvoj e imati znaajan utjecaj na budue trine strukture elektronikim komunikacijskim mreama, ovaj utjecaj e biti jai nego utjecaj u #%# u cjelini

86

(@) ekonomiju #%& e odrediti novu ravnoteu izme"u infrastructurebased i usluga konkurencije (E) #%& roll>out moe se osloniti na uinkovitiji mrena ar)itektura od trenutnog '0(# pristupne mree (J) *sim mreni) te)nologija 3 ar)itektura faktora i cijena elemenata mree, profitabilnosti #%& roll>out i #%& repliciranje i kritino ovisi o sposobnost operatora da biste stvorili vie &5'/ i 3 ili margine za usluge koje nude na #%& infrastrukture !pak, odrivost vii) cijena je upitan s obzirom prema gore zamjenu iz postojei) $D0B usluga i konkurencija iz kabelske (A !skustvo od poetka implementacije irokopojasnog tako"er sugerira da je na visoke cijene, potranja za velike brzine usluge e biti znatno ograniena (<) 'ristup zgrada i dijeljenje in>)ouse oienje je vano kako bi se osiguralo djelotvorno natjecanja (K) Dijelimo sumnje da e biti vie od jednog valjanje iz in>)ouse oienje zbog trokova, nedostatka prostora u kabelske police i odbijanje imovine 'redstavnici dopustiti pristup na vie od jednog operatera 'rvi operater implementaciju vlakana u zgradi e dobiti de facto monopol (G;) 9rani implementaciju kabela karakterizira nia -apitalna ulaganja, ali vie *'4O *visno o lokalnim uvjetima (npr oluja, snijeg, stabla) -apitalna ulaganja utede mogu se ponitio poveanjem *'4O !pak, pod odre"enim uvjetima i na pojedinim zemljama zrani implementaciju kabela moe smanjiti trokove infrastrukture i moe biti imbenik proiriti roll>out of #%& geografski (GG) namjetenici su bolje postavljeni nego alternativni operateri ulagati u #%& na veliki) razmjera+ a #amjetenici mogu osloniti na dostupnost veliki) elemenata mree potrebni) za #%& (mjesta na ulici ormaria, kanali, vlakna), gdje je alternativni operateri jo uvijek morati uloiti C #amjetenici mogu spremiti (ekonomski) ulaganja generiranja paualni pri)oda zbog demontaa 2D1s c #amjetenici mogu bolje iskoristiti ekonomiju razmjera i opsega zbog svoje vee baze pretplatnika (<;>K;H lokalni) petlji, oko @;H od maloprodajne irokopojasnog kupci) u odnosu na G;>G@H od vodei) natjecatelja, koje mogu prebaciti na #%& d &lternativni operatori obino lice vei troak kapitala od namjetenika zbog nji)ovu veliinu i poloaj rizik e 9bog navedeni) imbenika, ulaganja u #%& su vie rizine za alternativni operateri nego za nositelje !pak, alternativni operatori mogu djelovati kao prvi 2overs u #%&, jer je nji)ov trenutni poslovni model u cjelini pod prijetnju (G:) / sluaju 1((D t)e #%& ar)itektura ':' je vie u skladu s naelom otvorene mree od '*# ar)itekture E G : #alazi iz me"unarodne usporedbe (G) 0 vie od GG milijuna kuna 1((C 3 D pretplatnika, Mapan je vodea #%& vlakana implementacije u svijetu #a japanskom tritu otkriva vane uvide za 4uropskog razvoja+ a #akon 1((C 3 D je dostupan na tritu, ona ima potencijal da (lako) zamjena za D0B i prestii C &ko implementaciju vlakana organiziran je vrlo ekonomian, npr preko antene implementaciju, replikaciju vea vlakana pristup ini se da je mogue nego u kanala 3 podzemni kabel okoli 5eplikacija je tako"er podran od strane ultra>visoke gustoe u japanskom gradovima c 'ristup na temelju trinog natjecanja na temelju razdvajanja vlakana petlje ne ponititi natjecanje infrastrukture pristup vlakana d /nato infrastrukture temelji i pristup na temelju natjecanja, aktualni mogu zadrati poziciju za 02' 1((C 3 ) e Do sada 1((C 3 D nije poveao &5'/s znatno iznad razine &D0B (:) !ako je politike odluke u vezi #%& nisu u potpunosti uzeti, to je 9naajno je da australska vlada je najavila da ulau u zemlje 1((# mree na naelu otvorenog pristupa svim davateljima usluga

87

*va odluka uslijedila neuspjeni) pokuaja da se okupljaju sadanji i alternativni operateri zajedno ulagati u 1((# infrastrukturu (=) 0ingapur e postaviti vie governmentallF kontrolirani pristup prema #%&+ a 'omou dozvola pristupa (na temelju natjeaja) pasivne infrastrukture odredba strukturno odvojena od aktivnog infrastrukture odredbe &ktivno pruanje infrastrukture operativno odvojena od maloprodaje pruanja usluga C *bje veleprodaja tvrtke e djelovati kao regulirani monopoli, moraju osigurati usluge bez diskriminacije, lice univerzalni) usluga obveze i dobit e neki javni) subvencija (?) na amerikom tritu irokopojasnog pristupa uglavnom karakterizira duopolF izme"u kabela drutava i dvije fiksne linije namjetenika (u zemljopisno odvojena podruja) Cudui da je ukidanje obveze u pogledu razdvajanja vlakana u :;;=, natjecateljski davatelja usluga pristupa samo igrati zanemariv ulogu na tritu irokopojasnog pristupa E G = 'ravila i regulatorni zakljuci (G) #%& razvoj su relevantne za trita G, ?, @ i E moda drugog izdanje 4uropske komisije 'reporuke o relevantnim proizvodima i usluge tritima osjetljiv na e$>ante regulaciji (:) #%& razvoj sam po sebi ne za)tijeva da rijei pitanje sub>nacionalnoj trita #%& e imati samo utjecaj na potrebu definiranja pod>nacionalni) trita za odre"ena trita i 3 ili za razliku lijekova na zemljopisnom temelju ako stupanj repliciranje pristupa uslugama e biti sve vei zbog #%& ulaganja (=) transparentnost planirano raspore"ivanje #%& mrea je preduvjet i za razvoj odgovarajue regulatornog okvira za uinkovito tranzicije i za pruanje ekonomski) uinkovite poticaje za #%& implementacije *va pretpostavka vrijedi posebice za ulaganja odluke alternativni operateri, to je, 2e"utim, vani) vanosti za namjetenici Pinvesticijski) odluka, kao dobro (?) /nato injenici da nacionalna regulatorna tijela imaju pravnu snagu temeljem l @ 1D zatraiti relevantne informacije od operatora, postoji znaajan nedostatak transparentnosti namjetenici P#%& strategija i budunost postojei) razdvajanja na veliko usluga u mnogim dravama lanicama #edostatak transparentnosti moe poveati razinu potonuo cijene u prijelaz na #%&, moe generirati ekonomski neopravdano prvi pokreta prednosti i smanjiti potencijal za natjecanje u #%& (@) 'oboljanje pruanja prava nain za operatera mogu smanjiti dravne inenjering trokova u uvo"enju 1((C 3 D #%& strategije i poveati brzinu implementacije (E) / svr)u natjecanja vlakana lokalni) petlji, smanjiti trokove i smanji broj iskopa i druge gra"evinske radove u opinama, dijeljenje postojei) kanala od telekomunikacija i kabelske tvrtke, ali i drugi) komunalni) usluga, je Aaan politiki uvjet (J) uinkovit pristup kanale za)tijeva transparentnost u raspolaganju rezervni) kapaciteta u obliku lako dostupne direktorije, banke podataka ili Ieb>portalima 0luaja do sluaja i kanal po kanal upite ne odgovaraju ovom za)tjevu #acionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju osigurati odgovarajue referentne ponude, ukljuujui cijenu na temelju cijene i uinkovit 0B& (<) #%& e za)tijevati promjene u regulatornom paradigme+ 'itanje pristupa regulacije u #%& kontekstu vie nije samo kako osigurati pristup postojee mree elemenata ili usluga, ali i kako se struktura novog elemenata mree, tako da uinkovit mogunosti pristupa ne izlaze (K) &ko 4uropska regulativa ima odgovarajue i pravodobne mjere, #%& implementaciju od strane dominantni) operatera moe znaajno smanjiti (ve ograniena) stupanj natjecanje u pristupu tritu trenutno dosegla na temelju razdvajanja (G;) /laganje u #%& moe generirati znaajne i odrive prvi pokreta prednosti 'rva pokreta prednosti mogu ograniiti sposobnost drugi>pokreta za doi do potrebne dionica na tritu za repliciranje i profitabilnost 8ak i tamo gdje nai rezultati ukazuju na repliciranje modela, u stvarnom trinom okruenju taj rezultat moe biti ugroen od strane prvog selilac prednost !zbjegavanje namjetenici "prvi pokreta prednosti postaje relevantan cilj regulacije pod takvim okolnostima

88

(GG) 5egulatorna intervencije i odgovarajui pristup proizvodima su potrebne za konkurentno #%& na tritu+ (&) cijev i tamno pristup vlakana poveati razinu infrastrukture repliciranje, ali nisu dovoljne za odrivo trino natjecanje (C) 1iziki svrstavanje na razini ulice vlada poveava ogranien stupanj repliciranje u sluaju 1((7 (7) vlakana puni lokalne petlje (na metro jezgri mjesta) i vlakana pod petlje razdvajanja (na *0D1) poveati opseg za natjecanje znaajno (D) bitstream pristup ostane relevantan za podrku na ljestvici ulaganja koncept, za podruja ne>repliciranje infrastrukture i za poslovne usluga (4) *sim toga, regulatorni okvir mora nositi s potonuo ulaganja natjecatelji se odnose na BB/ infrastrukture kako bi se omoguilo odriv migracije put #%& (G:) *granieni stupanj repliciranje natjeu #%& infrastrukture temeljene na pristupa naglaava rastuu vanost odgovarajue odredbe bitstream pristup podrci barem natjecanju u pruanju usluga #%& (G=) Dostupnost kvalitetni) bitstream je tako"er bitno za poslovne usluge usluga, koji ne ciljaju na masovno trite 8esto su usmjereni a iroko rasprene kupaca na nacionalnoj ili ak paneuropska osnovi -ao to su adresiranje znatno manje kupaca, to nije dovoljno do skali od poslovanja ekonomski opravdati sebe pruanje pristupa usluge u mnogim sluajevima (G?) Dostupnost bitstream pristupa u #%& okruenju nadalje podrava na ljestvici ulaganja pojma s obzirom na namjetenici prvi pokreta prednosti Citstream pristup tako"er generira natjecanja npr u manje urbanim ili ruralnim podrujima gdje je ekonomija #%& ne podravaju repliciranje od #%& infrastrukture na sve (G@) 0 obzirom na ogranieni stupanj repliciranje of #%&, bitstream e ostati vaan element regulatorne strategije u 1((C 3 D okoli Citstream bi trebao biti dostupan na te)noloki neutralan temelju rasponu puni kapacitet dostupne infrastrukture (GE) (visoka) rizik #%& ulaganja, razliite trokove u regijama, razliiti) stupnjeva repliciranje i na ljestvici ulaganja koncept moe biti samo ako se nosile s alternativni operateri mogu birati izme"u razliiti) pristupa mogunosti *visno o lokalnim uvjetima roll>out, u jednom gradu ili za nekog mrenog sloja, pristup da cijevi mogu biti uinkovitiji proizvod / drugima moe biti tamno vlakno 1ormuliranje )ijerar)iju pristupa mogunostima podrazumijeva rizik od neuinkovitog ulaganja u infrastrukturu *vaj zakljuak je podran od strane nai) rezultata modela E G ? zakljuke na temelju nai) rezultata modela (G) 4konomika #%& mree se razlikuju, u skladu s naim rezultata modela, preko razliite te)nologije, mrene ar)itekture i razliitim zemljopisnim podrujima ovisno o gustoi kupca i trokove infrastrukture implementacije (:) #a model rezultati pokazuju da #%& uvjeti se razlikuju me"u dravama lanicama i u razliitim regijama drava lanica (o ne znai nuno da trita moraju se definirati kao pod>nacionalnim tritima (=) nacionalni #%& roll>out nije isplativo u bilo kojem od est zemalja analiziraju (aj rezultat vrijedi za bilo koju te)nologiju, pa ak i #%& za monopol na tritu strukture (?) 'odruje pokrivenosti #%& iznad razine isplativo roll>out moe biti samo proirena s javnog financiranja ili subvencija (@) #a model pokazuje vanost razmjera i opsega ekonomije ograniavaju stupanj repliciranje %dje odriv, replikaciju aktualni #%& e za)tijevati znaajniji razmjera i udio na tritu za alternativni operateri u odnosu na tekue razdvajanja poslovni) modela, ograniiti broj natjecatelja u mogue pristupne mree (E) 'ravilno definiran pristup lijekova i 3 ili veleprodaje proizvoda poveati stupanj of repliciranje of #%& pristup infrastrukturi, a time i stupanj i potencijalni) za natjecanje (J) /mnoava namjetenici PAD0B mree roll>out alternativni operateri manje

89

izvediv od trenutne BB/ pristup alternativni operateri / AD0B #%& okoli, sadanji stupanj BB/ temelji natjecanje ne ini se ponovljivi) *vi rezultati su slini onima generirana u studijama za nacionalna regulatorna tijela u #izozemskoj, !rskoj i Celgiji (<) #a model rezultati su dokazali kritine vanosti uinkovite svrstavanje u razina ulice ormara ponoviti 1((7 #%& strategije /kupni troak kolokacije moe (samo) biti minimiziran ako nova ulica ormari su e$>ante dizajniran za svrstavanje sposobnosti (K) #a model rezultati su dokazali kritine i kvantitativne vanosti uinkovite back)aul rjeenja izme"u ulica kabinet i operatora mree vor 0tand>alone back)aul usluga ograniavaju repliciranje od 1((7 #%& razvoja znaajno Dakle, dostupnost odgovarajue pristupne proizvoda poboljava repliciranje (G;) #a model rezultati podupiru oekivanja da svrstavanje u namjetenici P ulica kabinet poboljava vitalnost i repliciranje od AD0B alternativni operateri u odnosu na svrstavanje u blizini (GG) -ao to je navedeno od strane drugi) studija i 3 ili analitika oekivanja, na model rezultate podupiru zakljuak da gra"evinarstva cijene i in>)ouse oienje kljuni su prepreke za repliciranje u 1((C 3 D #%& implementacije, ali rjeavanju ti) ne samo biti dovoljno da dostavi konkurentne is)oda (G:) / 1((D #%& okoli, stupanj konkurencije na temelju BB/ od danas se moe replicirati ako vlakana 0B/ (u sluaju '*# ar)itekturi) i 3 ili vlakana BB/ (u sluaju ':' ar)itekture) su dostupni kao pristup proizvodima (G=) #a model rezultati pokazuju da namjetenika moe smanjiti svoje trokove infrastrukture dijeljenja, moe poveati profitabilnost svoji) #%& roll>out i moe dosegnuti profitabilnost na nioj razini trinog udjela *vaj rezultat upuuje na to da ulaganja sluajeva namjetenici mogu se poboljati, a ne potkopao kroz otvoren pristup reima (G?) 4konomika 1(($ ne podravaju viestruke replikaciju pristupne mree / sluaju (teoretski) repliciranje obino samo jedan ili dva operatera (osim prvi pokreta) rentabilno moe ulagati u infrastrukturu #%& !z nae rezultata modela moemo izvui ogranien stupanj repliciranje za odre"ene gue naseljenim regijama i 3 ili gradova, ali ne na nacionalnoj osnovi (G@) #ai rezultati modela naglaavaju vanost uinkovitosti u dupliciranje infrastrukture &ko se vie pristupni) mrea namotan vanjska strana nego to je izvediv modela ili ako odre"eni pristupne mree pruatelja usluga ne bi se postigla kritina tritu dionica izraunan, sudionika na tritu ili bi trebao naplatiti vie maloprodajne cijene nadoknaditi svoje investicije ili se suoiti s glavnim naslije"ene ulaganja ne napraviti poteno povrat na investiciju 0lina je situacija zbog overinvestment je dogodila kada je !nternet mje)uri praska u :;;;3;G (GE) #a model rezultati pokazuju simetrine prilike za namjetenika i alternativne operatera do mjerodavnom tritu dionica za isplativo #%& implementacije / stvarnim uvjetima na tritu postoji, me"utim, niz asimetrije izme"u namjetenika i alternativni operateri ulagati u #%& %lavni asimetrije nastati koritenjem postojee mrene infrastrukture i velike kupaca (GJ) osjetljivost na razini trokova kapitala pokazuju kritiki ovisnosti #%& profitabilnost od ovog parametra 'oveanje N&77 u 1rancuskoj na primjer iz G;,:@H do G@H smanjuje izvediv pokrivenost infrastrukture '*# 1((D iz G<,EH na E,<H stanovnitva / odriv podruja kritine trini udjeli za profitabilnost znaajno poveati &ko samo N&77 za regulirane na veliko usluge 02' operatera porastao je u istoj mjeri, kritine tritu dionica (ili trokove) natjecatelja znaajno poveati i viablF adresabilni kupaca opada *vi rezultati pokazuju, kako oprezni regulatori moraju nositi s pristupom premija rizika na incentivize ulaganja u #%& &ko se veleprodajnim cijenama fiksne znatno iznad relevantne #%& rizika projekta, repliciranje i natjecanje moe teko utjecati E,: 'reporuke E : G 'reporuke upuene europske politike (G) 4konomika rolling out optike mree za)tijevaju visoke trine udjele koji u veini sluajeva nisu kompatibilni s uinkovitog trinog natjecanja (o je dug

90

'ojam pitanje koje se odnosi na visoke trokove polaganja fizike infrastrukture u tipinom 4uropskom okruenju (srednje gustoe, pokopan kabeli) -reatori politike trebaju postaviti realne ciljeve za regulatore na toj osnovi koje priznaju da postoje strukturalne prepreke infrastrukture temeljene na natjecanje u pristupne mree i ire u ruralnim podrujima koja se moraju rjeavati regulatora kako bi se postigla uinkovito konkurentna is)oda (:) *tvorite modela pristup bi trebao biti pozitivan za investitore i preferiraju politika odluka iskoritavaju potencijal inovacija i konkurencije (=) -reatori politike trebaju voditi rauna da lokalni petlje i sub>loop razdvajanja su definirani u te)noloki neutralan nain koji ukljuuje vlakana linije a ne samo metalik linije Arlo je vjerojatno da reguliranog pristupa vlakana mree bit e potrebno, uz kanal pristup, kako bi se uinkovito trino natjecanje u veini sluajeva (?) 'olitiari trebaju teiti za uinkovito ulaganje, tako da infrastruktura je uklonio iz profitabilno, uz minimalni rizik za gospodarstvo i najvie doi 'olitike trebali bi se izbjeglo stvaranje pretpostavki o stupnju ulaganja koja je uinkovit, ali omoguuju operaterima da investiraju uinkovito temelji se na skup mogunosti (u ljestvici ulaganja) (@) 'olitiari bi trebali promicati slubu trinog natjecanja i infrastrukture, na temelju natjecanje u isto vrijeme 'od uvjetom da veleprodajna cijena prava, regulirano pristup vlakana ne iskljuuje i moe pruiti platformu za daljnje infrastrukture umnoavanje gdje je to uinkovito (E) 'od uvjetom da je veliko bitstream pristupa cijena je u pravu, NC& ostaje kljuni element u ljestvici ulaganja koncepta za razvoj trita i potporu ulazak na trite 'olitiari stoga treba i dalje uzeti u obzir kao jedan od NC& vani) elemenata za razvoj konkurencije na tritu irokopojasnog pristupa (J) dominantni) operatera zadrava znatnu prednost posebno kroz pristup ostavtina infrastrukture (cijevi), esto visoke maloprodajnom tritu dionica, sposobnost financiranja #%& ulaganja od postojei) novani) tokova, te asimetrije informacija 8ak i ako kanal pristup je obratio, prvi pokreta prednosti su vjerojatno da e se dobiti dominantna operatori zbog regulatorni) kanjenja #amjetenici imaju sposobnost smanjiti trokove prodajom drugi) ostavtina imovine (osobito zgrade) i moe imati potpuno ili djelomino amortizirana neke od temeljni) kanala infrastrukture (e prednosti treba uzeti u obzir prilikom razmatranja relativne pozicije na tritu igrai, nji)ove cijene i kapaciteta investirati (<) kreatora politike i regulatori moraju djelovati brzo identificirati nji)ove eljene model za #%& implementaciju i oekivanja u pogledu otvorenosti mree Dok politika odluka ne moe mandat pojedine strukture mree, signalizacija oekivanja razumne uvjete pristupa u sluaju 02' i ukazuje na to da pristup cijenama e se izraunati na temelju uinkovite ar)itekture moe pomoi da se osigura da pristup vlasnici voditi rauna o za)tjevima za otvorenost u mrei ar)itekture donose (K) #agra"ivanje rizika na odgovarajui je vano kako bi se osiguralo da ulaganja doga"a 'redloena rjeenja su da se povea doputeno N&77 za rizine projekte ili za)tijevati up>front plaanja koristi od pristupa 'olitiari bi trebali, me"utim, biti svjesni, da odre"ene modele rizika nagra"ivanja i cijena nisu skladu s natjecanja ili se moe barem nakoditi konkurenciji 4uropski ili nacionalno zakonodavstvo treba usvojiti naelo da regulirane cijene omoguuju sajam povratak na odgovarajui nain odraava rizik, a da cijena strukture usvojeni kako bi se postigla ovo bi trebalo biti u skladu s promicanjem uinkovitog trinog natjecanja (G;) Cudui da je>kompenzira investitora kroz prekomjerno pristupa cijene mogu negativno utjecati konkurencije, kreatori politike ne bi trebalo preporuiti odre"ene (Dodatno) premije rizika za sve #%& ulaganja /laganje u nove generacije pristupne mree moe biti rizino u nekim okolnostima i mogu predstavljati relativno bez rizika obnove opreme u drugima 'rocjena razine rizinost i izraun odgovarajue cijena bi trebala biti provedena na sluaju do sluaja od strane regulatora E : : 'reporuke upuene 4uropskoj komisiji (G) u potpunosti odraavaju razvoj prema #%# 3 #%&, definicija trinog G (u novi popis mjerodavni) trita), vie ne bi trebao biti definiran usluge posebno barem

91

u dugom roku (:) / narednom 'reporuke -omisije o #%&, -omisija bi trebala+ a /spostaviti jasnu ljestvici ulaganja koja odraava #%& razvoj time je jasno, ukljuujui vlakna BB/ i 0B/ uz kanal pristup i na veliko bitstream pristup i objanjava ulogu svakog od nji) C !zbjegavajte stvaranje ope pretpostavke o rizinosti #%& ulaganja, ali odrediti okolnosti u kojima se ova investicija svibanj ili svibanj ne biti rizino c *sigurati da je bilo koji preporuka na pristup cijenama, da bi odraavala rizik ne nepropisno utjecaj konkurencije 'rojekt se temelji N&77 bi mogao biti rjeenje 0trukture koje za)tijevaju visok prekomjerno unaprijed doprinosa za pristup bi trebao ne doputa nacionalna regulatorna tijela, osim ako su dokazano da se u skladu s uinkovitog trinog natjecanja d 'repoznajte svojstvene razlike u trokovima i profilu rizika izme"u namjetenika i sudionika (o e se posebno priznaju se s obzirom na uzajamno obveze me"u operaterima e Masno razlikovati preporuke u svezi ulaganja 3 vlasnitvo dijeljenje (od kanala ili vlakna), s jedne strane i mandatom reguliranog pristupa na 02' infrastrukturu s druge strane 'ravni temelj i dogovora o svakoj su razliite / sluaju razmjene, to treba priznati da uinkovito dobrovoljnog dogovora vjerojatno samo pojaviti izme"u stranke s jednakim pregovaraka mo i da je dijeljenje infrastrukture to je teko ponoviti ne samo poveati konkurenciju u tom infrastrukture i vjerojatno e za)tijevati regulatorna nadzora f *sigurati da su trita segmentirani samo na temelju stvarne konkurentske razlike 0ljedea generacija razvoj pristupa bi samo utjecati na segmentacije gdje ekonomiju rezultate u daljnjem infrastrukturu odgovor nego to je trenutno prisutan E : = 'reporuke upuene 45% (G) 45% usko treba pratiti provedbu zajedniko stajalite o 5egulatorna naela #%& od strane pojedini) nacionalna regulatorna tijela, npr generiranjem mjerljiv "najbolje prakse smjernice" (:) 45% dalje treba razbiti i odrediti svoj poloaj na in>)ouse oienje u #%&>kontekstu (=) 45% treba analizirati fiziki pristup ND2>based prijenosni) sustava u pristupne mree kao pristup opciju, ocjenjuje dosadanji) iskustava i razviti miljenje o ovoj opciji (?) 45% treba razviti zajedniko stajalite o regulatornim posljedicama nasukan ulaganja alternativni operateri koji proizlaze iz promjena u namjetenici pristup mreama (@) 45% treba razviti zajedniko stajalite o regulacije cijena tradicionalni) razdvajanja i prekida usluga u fazi tranzicije karakterizira prekrivajua mrea elemenata (E) 45% trebao dati preporuke na odgovarajuim cijenama struktura koje omoguiti ulaganja oporavak #%& bez potkopavanja natjecanja E : ? 'reporuke upuene nacionalna regulatorna tijela (G) 5egulatori trebaju razvijati svoje regulatorni pristup za #%& okoli rano pruiti potrebnu okvira i predvidljivost za sve sudionike trita na provesti uinkovite strategije i ulaganja u #%& (:) nacionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju prilagoditi postojee ljestvici ulaganja pojam uzeti u obzir #%&, da bi odraavala 1((7 i 1((D rjeenja (=) 5egulatori bi trebali nastaviti u obzir odgovarajue cijene na veliko bitstream pristup kao jedan kljuan korak u ljestvici ulaganja koncepta za razvoj konkurencije na tritu irokopojasnog pristupa, te podrku ulazak na trite (?) nacionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju razviti razdvajanje pristupa za vlakana petlje u kontekstu analize trita i lijekova koji se odnose na nova trita ? (ekue razdvajanja pristup definiran za bakar '0(# mreu treba proiriti u te)noloki neutralan nain vlakana / sluaju ':' ar)itekture vlakana lokalne petlje treba osigurati na metro jezgri mjesta / sluaju '*#

92

ar)itektura vlakana pod>petlje treba navesti u *0D1 mjesto *0D1 bi trebao omoguiti uinkovito replikaciju mrene infrastrukture (@) #a model rezultati su dokazali kritine vanosti uinkovite svrstavanje u ulica kabineta ponoviti 1((7 #%& strategije sadanjeg #acionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju dakle nametnuti oblike uvjetovanosti koje minimiziraju ukupni trokovi sadanjeg i svrstavanje azila (E) nacionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju brinuti za uinkovito back)aul usluga izme"u ulice kabinet i operatora mree vor za kanal dijeljenje i 3 ili pristup tamno vlakno davanje operatori izbor izme"u obje alternative (J) Da bi se smanjio razinu potonuo trokova u tranziciji i postaviti odgovarajue poticaje za uinkovito ulaganje u #%&, nacionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju koristiti svoje zakonske ovlasti odma) da bi prijelaz na #%& u svojoj zemlji transparentno, ako nisu uinili jo (<) nacionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju razmotriti mogunost regulatorni) mjera za olakavanje razmjena unutar oienje izme"u operatora u vie stambeni) jedinica (K) *sim uvo"enja lijekova u vezi kanala pristupa, nacionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju voditi brigu o uinkovite me)anizme provedbe i upravni) postupaka kako bi se smanjili transakcijske trokove kanala pristupa, referentni nudi, ukljuujui trokove na temelju cijene i 0B& treba osigurati, razdoblja isporuke i vrijeme odziva treba razumne (G;) nacionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju promicati dostupnost katalog ili Ieb>portal o dostupan cijevi i tamno vlakana, nji)ove sposobnosti i nji)ove stvarne koritenja (GG) nacionalna regulatorna tijela trebala uspostaviti albeni postupak za rjeavanje sporova u vezi kanala pristup i tamno vlakana koja su zamjena za vremena sud albu postupaka (G:) cijev pristup bi trebao biti mandat za cijeli pristup i back)aul mree, bez obzira na ar)itekturu bira 02' operatora (G=) ostvariti najuinkovitije rjeenje razdvajanje vlakna i kako bi se smanjili ukupni trokovi of pristupu izdvojenoj, nacionalna regulatorna tijela treba definirati i odrediti model razdvajanja za pristup %'*# ili 4'*# prije stvarnog mree implementacije (G?) !'>bitstream pristup bi trebao biti openito dostupna u #%& kontekstu s diferencirane klase usluga, tako da alternativni operateri imaju priliku nude diferencirane usluge i proizvode (G@) nacionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju voditi rauna da davatelji pristupa pasivne infrastrukture ne nepravedno diskriminirati izme"u mreni) operatora i ne za)tjeva monopol cijene za koritenje pasivne mrene elemente (GE) nacionalna regulatorna tijela mogu uzeti u obzir da se razvije poticaj kompatibilni transparentnost me)anizama motivirati namjetenika pruiti relevantne informacije o #%& tranziciji strategije u najkraem moguem vremenu Duljina prijelazna faza mogla za primjer se ovisi o pravilnom i pravovremeno pruanje informacija o #%& tranzicije (GJ) 5egulatori bi trebali biste bili sigurni da ar)itektura dizajnirana od strane dominantni) operatora mora potovati razdvajanja mandata na najuinkovitiji mogui nain (G<) &ko veleprodajni irokopojasni pristup (bitstream) je mandat od strane #5& je 02' operator mora uiniti dostupnima, na nediskriminirajuoj osnovi, svim te)nikim sposobnosti ugra"ene u #%&, kako bi alternativni operateri definirati svoje vlastite proizvode na vlastitu Ro0 2ulticast sposobnost je jedna takva te)nika sposobnosti (GK) 5egulatori openito treba pruiti mogunost da biraju izme"u kanala pristupa i tamno vlakana pristup back)aul veze kako bi se omoguilo isplativa gradnja alternativne mree (:;) nacionalna regulatorna tijela moraju voditi rauna da namjetenici ne dobivaju prvi pokreta prednosti u #%& implementacije tako da je mogue repliciranje e de facto ugroen *vo znai osobito da relevantne pristup proizvodima nisu dostupne samo u naelu ali su uspjeno dostupne u dogledno vrijeme (:G) 5egulatori bi trebali uiniti vie nego to su to uinili s obzirom na /BB za skraivanje jaz

93

izme"u nametanja #%& povezani) lijekova i stvarne dostupnosti relevantni) usluga veleprodaje / sluaju /BB provedbe kanjenja iznosila je nekoliko godina 0 obzirom na vanost prvog selilac prednost sline praznine u #%& moe ugroziti (ogranieno) potencijal repliciranje jo ili potpuno (::) vlakana pristup 1((C 3 D treba osigurati da se mrena ar)itektura omoguuje pristup na ekonomski odriv pristupne toke u mrei koji tako"er omoguuju inovacije od strane konkurenata Masno odre"ivanje takvog pristupa obveza e osigurati da se ti za)tjevi uzeti u obzir prilikom izgradnje i ar)itektura mree (:=) za okolnosti u kojima #%& roll>out do zgrade je odriv, nacionalna regulatorna tijela trebaju ispitati mogunost regulatorni) mjera za olakavanje razmjene unutar oienje izme"u operatora u vie stambeni) jedinica E : @ 'reporuke upuena nacionalne vlade i zakonodavci (G) Alade bi trebale ukinuti nesigurnost i nedostatak transparentnosti u nadlenosti i rjeavanja sporova u vezi prava nain za operatera (:) 5adi osiguranja dosljedne upravni postupak dobivanja prava nain, vlade trebale bi postaviti jasne smjernice o tome kako dobiti javnog prava nain doputa stvaranjem centraliziranog informacije bod pomou sredinje portal (=) federalne, regionalne i 3 ili lokalne samouprave trebaju uskladiti upravni procedure za pristup pravima nain i osiguravanja dosljednosti u primjeni ti) postupaka u cijeloj zemlji (?) -ako bi smanjili trokove gra"evinarstva, vlade (ili regulatora) treba bi se osiguralo da bilo koji naknade vezane uz koritenje javnog prava nain treba smanjiti ili ak eliminira (@) alternativni operateri bi trebali uzeti u obzir zamjene mogunosti za pristup infrastrukturi u razliitim regijama izme"u sebe (E) alternativni operateri bi trebao biti otvoren za ili ak motivirati privatni) ulagaa ili Alada 5D 3 lokalne vlasti da ulau u infrastrukturu pasivne optike i pruiti ovu infrastrukture u nediskriminirajui nain da razliiti operatori E : J 'reporuke upuene dominantni) operatera (G) namjetenika treba osigurati informacije i transparentnost u svoje #%& implementacije strategije kako bi se osiguralo da implementacijama su dizajnirani da budu u skladu s relevantnim regulatornim naelima (:) namjetenika moglo i trebalo smanjiti svoj rizik i troak valjanje>out #%& po s obzirom na dobrovoljne razmjene infrastrukture i pruanja pristupa alternativnim operatora

Literat+ra

:iblio,raphy
%$7-8 (:;;G)( 7onsulta=ione pubblica sugli aspetti regolamentari relativi all.assetto della rete d.accesso ed alle prospettive delle reti di nuova genera=ione a larga bandaH %llegato % and %llegato C alla Belibera n! :;<3;G37-#6H 2omaH 8ay %mado da 6ilva, 9! (:;;<)( "ortugal( Buct %ccess in "ractice, presentation at the 57T% *or shop 1igh 6peed 5urope, Crussels, 9une :@ %mendola, $!C! and 4!8! "upillo (:;;<)( The economics of #ext $eneration %ccess networ s and regulatory governance( Towards geographic patterns of regulationH in(

94

7ommunications Y 6trategies, no! DI, Est 'uarter :;;<, p! <@ %nalysys (:;;D)( 0ibre in the last mile( the business case for 0TT" and AB64, %nalysys 2esearch 4imited, 7ambridge (JN) %nalysys (:;;Ga)( The business case for sub-loop unbundling in the #etherlands, study prepared for -"T%, 9anuary %nalysys (:;;Gb)( The business case for sub-loop unbundling in Bublin, study prepared for 7omreg, Becember %nalysys 8ason (:;;<)( The business case for fibre-based access in the #etherlands, final report for -"T%, 9uly :? %275" (:;;<) ( 7onsultation publi'ue sur le dZploiement et la mutualisation de la partie terminale des rZseaux en fibre opti'ueH 7onsultation publi'ue du :: mai au :G juinH http(33www!arcep!fr3uploads3tx[gspublication3consult-ftth-mutualisation-mai;<!pdf %rthur B! 4ittle (:;;D)( #ieuwe generatie netwer en in 5uropa, Creedband in :;EE en daarna! 6tudy prepared for 4iberty $lobal! http(33www!vecai!nl3downloads3docs3%B4[2eport!pdf! %T Nearney and "lanning 6%! (:;;<)( Beveloping the 1ellenic 8inistry of Transport and 7ommunications @ year broadband strategy for $reece, %thens, 8ay %visem (:;;Ga)( 5tude portant sur les modalitZs de dZploiement d.une boucle locale fibre opti'ue, study prepared for %275", 9une %visem (:;;Gb)( 5tude portant sur les spZcifications techni'ues des infrastructures de gZnie civil susceptibles de supporter des rZseaux d.acc\s 0TT1 H partie : de l.Ztude ( 5lZments de spZcifications des infrastructuresH study prepared for %275", 6eptember Cauer, 9! (:;;@)( Jnbundling policy in the Jnited 6tates O "layers, outcomes and effectsH in( 7ommunications Y 6trategies, no! @G, Est 'uarter, p! @I C/"T /nstitut Celge des service postaux et des tZlZcommunications (:;;<)( L7ommunication du conseil de l./C"T du G juillet :;;< concernant l.impact de la fermeture des centraux sur les marchZs d.access ] large bandeL, Crussels, 9uly G de Caillenx, -! (:;;<)( 1igh 6peed 5urope, presentation at the 57T% *or shop 1igh 6peed 5urope, Crussels, 9une :@ 7han,T! and $! 4ynch (:;;<)( *ho is %xia^the new mystery #C# player+ in( 7ommunications Bay, %65%# edition, 8ay G 78T (:;;<)( "rincipios y l_neas maestras de la futura regulaci`n de las redes de %cceso de #ueva $eneraci`n (#$%), 9anuary 5lixmann, B! (:;;E)( Ber 8ar t far bbertragungs apa=itct in #ordameri a und 5uropa, */NBis ussionsbeitrcge #r! ::?, Cad 1onnef 5J 7ommission (:;;<)( e7ommunications household survey( The results of a special 5urobarometer survey, #o! :I>, 9une 5uropean "arliament (7ommittee on /ndustry, 2esearch and 5nergy, :;;<)( LBraft 2eport on the proposal for a directive of the 5uropean "arliament and of the 7ouncil amending Birective :;;:3:E357 on a common regulatory framewor for electronic communications networ s and services, Birective :;;:3EI357 on access to, and interconnection of, electronic communications networ s and services, and Birective :;;:3:;357 on the authorisation of electronic communications networ s and servicesLH (7-8(:;;G);DIG O 7D-;?:G3:;;G O :;;G3;:?G(7-B))H 2apporteur( 7atherine TrautmannH %pril :> 52$ (:;;Ga)( 52$ -pinion on 2egulatory "rinciples of #$%, -ctober 52$ (:;;Gb)( 6upplementary Bocument, -ctober $authey, $! (:;;G)( 0TT1 in 0rance, presentation at */N 7onference The way to #ext $eneration %ccess #etwor s, 8arch :EH Ndnigswinter $roenewald, %! (:;;<)( Cush graft, in( Total Telecom 8aga=ine, 9une, p! >>

95

$robe, N! and 9-" 5lbers (:;;<)( "-# in %dolescence( 0rom TB8% to *B8-"-#, in( /555 7ommunications 8aga=ine, 9anuary, pp! :D 1ennes, A! (:;;G)( 0rom 0TT1 pilot to pre-rollout in 0ranceH presentation at */N 7onference The way to #ext $eneration %ccess #etwor s, 8arch :EH Ndnigswinter 1utcheson, 4! (:;;<)( 7urrent 6tatus and the 0uture, in( /555 7ommunications 8aga=ine, 9uly, pp! I; /B% (:;;Ga)( 8edia Criefing - #ext $eneration #ational Croadband #etwor for 6ingapore (#ext $en #C#)H by Nhoong1oc &un, Becember EE /B% (:;;Gb)( 6ingapore.s #ext $eneration #ational Croadband #etwor "rojectH Pualification Bocument for #et7o 20" /B% (:;;<)( #ext $eneration #ational Croadband #etwor for 6ingapore (#ext $en #C#), presentation by Nhoong1oc &un, %pril G /B%T5 (:;;<)( JltraCroadband -verview, JltraCroadband 6eminar, "aris, %pril > (presented by 2oland 8ontagne) 9" 8organ (:;;D)( The 0ibre Cattle, Becember Natagiri, &! (:;;<)( 2ecent 2egulatory 2eform in 9apanese TelecommunicationsH slide presentation at the /nternational */N 7onference 2eview of the 5uropean 0ramewor for 5lectronic 7ommunications, Conn, $ermanyH %pril :? - :@ 4undberg, %! (:;;<)( 6to ab, presentation at the -57B wor shop on fibre investment and policy challenges, %pril E, 6tavanger 4ombard, B! (:;;G)( 0rance Telecom /nvestor Bay( conclusion, www!francetelecom!com3fr[023finance3investisseurs3journees-invest3att;;;;>ED?3E?conclusion!pdf, Becember 4ynch, $! (:;;<a)( -pel cancellation portends similar 0TT# issues, in( 7ommunications Bay, issue >:??, %pril > 8et=ler, %!, 6tappen, 7! unter 8itarbeit von B! 5lixmann (:;;>)( % tuelle 8ar tstru tur der %nbieter von TN-Biensten im 0estnet= sowie 0a toren far den 5rfolg von $eschcftsmodellen, *i -Bis ussionsbeitrcge #r! :?G, Cad 1onnef -57B (:;;<a)( "ublic rights of way for fibre deployment to the home, B6T/3/77"37/6"(:;;G)@30inal, %pril ? -57B (:;;<b)( Bevelopments in fibre technologies and investment B6T/3/77"37/6"(:;;G)?30inal, %pril > -vum (:;;<)( 5studo sobre o impacto das 2edes de "r`xima $eraSeo no mercado, study prepared for %#%7-8, 9une EE "upillo, 4! (:;;<)( 2egulation, Beregulation and 7ompetition in #ext $eneration %ccess #etwor s( The geographic mar et approach as a way forwardf H presentation at */N.s /nternational 7onference 2eview of the 5uropean 0ramewor for 5lectronic 7ommunicationsH Conn, $ermanyH %pril :? O :@ 2odrigue=, 2! (:;;<)( 2egulation on a #$%# environment, presentation at the 57T% *or shop 1igh 6peed 5urope, Crussels, 9une :@ 6chcfer, 2! and %! 6chdbel (:;;@)( 6tand der Cac bone-/nfrastru tur in Beutschland O 5ine 8ar t- und *ettbewerbsanalyse, */N-Bis ussionsbeitrcge #r! :D@, Cad 1onnef! Taniwa i, &! (:;;<)( Croadband 7ompetition "olicy in 9apan, presentation by 8inistry of /nternal %ffairs Y 7ommunications (8/7), 8arch Aogelsang, /! (:;;@)( -pinion on unbundling policy in the Jnited 6tates, interview by Narl1ein= #eumannH in( 7ommunications Y 6trategies, no! @G, Est 'uarter, p! E;I *illiamson, 2!, Nlein, 9!, 2eynolds, 8! and 2! 9ones (:;;<)( %ssessment of the theoretical limits

96

of copper in the last mile, 0inal report prepared for -07-8, 9uly D *ulf, %! (:;;G)( %ccess re'uirements and access options in a AB64 environment, presentation at */N.s AB64 7onference, Ndnigswinter, $ermany, 8arch

97