Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Topics
Energyconsumption&petroleumsplace
SizeofU.S.industry
Majorrefiners
Petroleumproducts
Basicpetroleumeconomics
Trendsforcrudeoil&gasolineprices
Whendorefinersmakemoney?
GeneralizedPetroleumRefinery
2
Topics
Energyconsumption&petroleumsplace
SizeofU.S.industry
Majorrefiners
Petroleumproducts
Basicpetroleumeconomics
Trendsforcrudeoil&gasolineprices
Whendorefinersmakemoney?
GeneralizedPetroleumRefinery
3
GrowthofU.S.EnergyConsumption
4
Source:18501949,EnergyPerspectives:APresentationofMajorEnergyandEnergyRelatedData,U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,
1975;19502000,AnnualEnergyReview2000,Table1.3.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
E
n
e
r
g
y
C
o
n
s
u
m
e
d
(
Q
u
a
d
1
0
1
5
B
T
U
)
Wood
HydroelectricPower
NuclearElectricPower
Coal
NaturalGas
Petroleum
EnergyMarketsAreInterconnected
5
https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov/news/energy/energy.html
PetroleumValueChain
6
http://sparepart.in.th/html/guide.html
U.S.RefiningCapacity
7
EIA,Jan.1,2013database,publishedJune2013
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/
U.S.RefineryCapacityHistoricalTrends
8
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_cap1_dcu_nus_a.htm
SizeDistributionofU.S.Refineries
9
LocationsofU.S.Refineries
10
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7170
IndividualRefinerySizes 20Largest
11
Complexvs.simplerefinery
12
MajorchangestotheslateofUSrefineries
Motivacompleted$10billionJVexpansionin2013
Increasedto600,000bpdcapacity,nowlargestinUS
Operatingproblemscausednearimmediateshutdownofnewcrudedistillationtrain
Plantoexportrefinedproducts
Refinerieschangingownership&severalshuttingdown
TesoroboughtBPs246,000bpdCarsonrefinery.
$1.175Bforrefinery,$1.3Bforinventory
MarathonPetroleumpurchasedBPs460,000bpdTexasCity.
$589Mforrefinery,$1.4Bforinventory
Tesorosold94,000bpdHawaiirefinerytoParRefining
13
NewGrassRootsRefineriesinU.S.?
LastgrassrootscomplexrefineryinU.S.wasMarathonPetroleumsGaryville,LA,refinery
openedin1976
Twoothercomplexrefineriesopenedinthe1970sarethePhillips66AllianceRefinerynear
NewOrleans,LA,&theBPCherryPointRefineryinnorthwestWashington(1971)
Multiplesimplerefineries
Complexrefineriesinplanningstage
HyperionEnergyCenter,400,000bpdrefinerynearUnionCounty,SD
WillincludePetcoke IGCCforpower&hydrogen
AirpermitwithStateSupremeCourt,rulingexpectedinSeptember2012atearliest
ArizonaCleanFuelsYuma,LLC,150,000bpdrefinerynearYuma,AZ
NopressreleasessinceMarch2009
MHACleanFuelsRefinery,15,000bpsd refineryontheFortBertholdIndianReservationnear
Makoti,ND
ReceivedkeyEPApermitfordischargingtreatedwastewaterAugust2011
DakotaPrairieRefinery
20,000bpdtoppingunitwithdieselhydrotreating
14
U.S.OilfromImports
15
EIApublisheddatausedforcharts
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_nusz00_mbblpd_w.htm
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_nus_w.htm
GenealogyOfMajorU.S.Refiners
16
Ref:http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/
GenealogyOfMajorU.S.Refiners
17
Ref:http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/
CompanyProfile Phillips66
18
Maps:http://www.phillips66.com/EN/about/ourbusinesses/refiningmarketing/Pages/index.aspx
Topics
Energyconsumption&petroleumsplace
SizeofU.S.industry
Majorrefiners
Petroleumproducts
Basicpetroleumeconomics
Trendsforcrudeoil&gasolineprices
Whendorefinersmakemoney?
GeneralizedPetroleumRefinery
19
PetroleumProducts
Therearespecificationsfor
over2,000individualrefinery
products
Intermediatefeedstockscan
beroutedtovariousunitsto
producedifferentblendstocks
Dependsuponthelocal
economics&contractual
limitations
20
Ref:Unknownorigin.PossiblySoconyVacuumOilCompany,Inc.(1943)
U.S.Refinery&BlenderNetProduction
21
IncludesproductiontoMay2013
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_refp_dc_nus_mbbl_m.htm
U.S.Refinery&BlenderNetProduction
22
EIA,refineryyield
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_pct_dc_nus_pct_m.htm
1.53ratioof
gasoline&naphtha
tomiddledistillates
Topics
Energyconsumption&petroleumsplace
SizeofU.S.industry
Majorrefiners
Petroleumproducts
Basicpetroleumeconomics
Trendsforcrudeoil&gasolineprices
Whendorefinersmakemoney?
GeneralizedPetroleumRefinery
23
Crude&ProductPrices
24
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
RefineryEconomics
Whendorefinersmakemoney?
Highcrudeoilprices?
Lowcrudeoilprices?
Itdepends!
Differencebetweenthesalepriceoftheproducts&purchasepriceofthecrudeoil
Operatingcostscutintothismargin
Typicalprices
Whatisthepriceofcrudeoil?
Dependsonlocation,quality,
Whataretheproductprices?
25
PricesAreCrudeSpecific
26
Ref:Statistics,Oil&GasJournal,June3,2013
PricesAreCrudeSpecific
East of the Rockies Price Change Gvty Adj
Altamont Yellow Wax 81.31 -0.20 B
Bonito Sour (Onshore) 112.75 -0.25 A
Deepwater Sour (Onshore) (30) 109.50 0.00 F,G
East Texas 93.00 -0.25 none
Eugene Island Sour (Onshore) 113.50 0.00 A
Heavy Louisiana Sweet (Onshore) 116.75 -0.25 A
Light Louisiana Sweet (Onshore) 116.00 -0.25 A
New Mexico Intermediate 93.25 -0.25 none
New Mexico Sour (34) 90.25 -0.25 none
North Texas Sweet 93.25 -0.25 none
Oklahoma Sour 90.25 -0.25 none
Oklahoma Sweet 93.25 -0.25 none
Rocky Mountain Condensate 81.06 -0.20 H
South Texas Light Sweet 91.25 -0.25 none
Southwest Wyoming Sweet 86.31 -0.20 E
Uinta Basin Black Wax 80.31 -0.20 B
West Texas Intermediate 93.25 -0.25 none
West Texas Sour (34) 90.25 -0.25 none
Western Colorado 82.06 -0.20 B
27
ScaleA:
Deduct$0.02/bblforeachwholedegreeAPIfrom40.9 to
35.0API.
Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIbelow35.0API.
Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIabove45.0API.
ScaleB:
Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIbelow40.0API.
Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIabove45.0API.
ScaleF:
Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIbelow30.0API
Add$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIabove30.0 to35.0API
Add$0.02/bblforeachwholedegreeAPIfrom36 to40.0API.
Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIabove45.0API.
ScaleG:
Add$0.1/bblforeach.1weightpercentSulfur(wt%S)below2.0
to1.0wt%S
Deduct$0.1/bblforeach.1weightpercentSulfur(wt%S)above
2.0wt%S
ScaleH:
Add$0.015/bblpremiumforeach0.1degreebelow45.0degrees
Deduct$0.05/bblforeach0.1degreeabove60.0degrees
ChevronCrudeOilMarketing
EastoftheRockies Bulletin12E88
May9,2012
http://crudemarketing.chevron.com/posted_pricing_daily.asp
PricesAreCrudeSpecific
PricesAreCrudeSpecific
PricesAreAlsoLocationSpecific
30
Ref:Valero,UBSGlobalOilandGasConference,May2122,2013
ProductEconomics CrackSpread
Estimatesthevalueaddedbyrefiningasanindustry
4standardspreads
532
5bbl crude 3bbls gasoline+2bbls heatingoil/diesel
321
3bbl crude 2bbls gasoline+1bbls heatingoil/diesel
211
2bbl crude 1bbls gasoline+1bbls heatingoil/diesel
6321
6bbl crude 3bbls gasoline+2bbls heatingoil/diesel+1bbl residualfueloil
Ruleofthumbforprofitableoperatingenvironment
Longheldview greaterthan$4perbbl asstronglyprofitable
Currentview shouldbegreaterthan$9perbbl tobeprofitable
31
CrackSpread
Example Bloomberg,8/12/2013
Prices
WTICushingSpot $105.46perbbl
Brent $107.94perbbl
RBOBGasoline $2.8925pergal
HeatingOil $2.9967pergal
532Spreads
WTI
Brent
32