SIMULATING REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES

OVER MARITIME-CONTINENT
MARITIME CONTINENT USING
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL
BMKG

Siswanto
Graduate School of Climate Sciences, Universityy of Bern, Switzerland
National Agency for Meteorology
Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG),
(BMKG) Jakarta,
Jakarta Indonesia

Abstract A2 A1B B1 Commitment Result

This study investigates how future climate
Fig 4. Projected pattern of
changes over maritime-continent
maritime continent particularly
seasonal pprecipitation
p in the
t
temperature
t andd precipitation
i it ti change
h ffor 21th 21th century in comparison
century based
b d on the h IPCC SRES A1B emission i i with the 20thh century.
scenario relative to the present-day climate using
a regional climate model (RegCM3) simulation.
Fig. 1 Calculated changes (1960-2100)
Fig (1960 2100) in global-mean
global mean (top)
• Seasonal rainfall changesg are most
Compared
p to ppresent-day y climate, this scenario and Indonesia (bottom) annual surface air temperature for noticeable increase during the rainy
experiment
p exhibited an increase in temperaturep IPCC SRES scenarios ((Hulme et.al,1999).
, ) The observed season and are generally decrease
generally
ge e a y 1.8 .8oC, both
bot over
ove land
a d and
a d seas, except
e cept changes to 1998 in both cases are shown by bars and the
bold black curves. A1B scenario for Indonesia shows during the dry season.
season
for mountainous area. An extreme change was
increase in temperature generally 1.8oC.
found over south-east
south east area of Indonesia where • The air temperature in most of part of
temperature increased 0oC-4 C 4 oC,
C the future Seasonal Pattern of Precipitation 2000 Indonesia will generally increase as
projections for precipitation showed seasonal annually seasonally and monthly.
annually, monthly
rainfall
i f ll changes
h are mostt noticeable
ti bl increase
i Seasonal changes in dry season (JJA)
d i the
during th rainyi season andd are generally ll
will greater than in rainy season (DJF).
d
decrease dduring
i the h ddry season. These
h i
increase
were variously over the region. Extremely Seasonally changes is in rate 1,5 15 –
increases were found in Java Island, some part of 2 0oC,
2.0 C while monthly changes up to
Sumatera,, Central Sulawesi and Papua p where it 2.a 4.0oC.
could reach more over 16 mm per p dayy for • Changes will occur variously over the
February rather than present-day
present day with exceptional
region and more intensify in the south
condition depicted in some areas of Borneo Borneo,
Sulawesi and Papua where precipitation seemed and eastern p part of Indonesia.
to decrease
decrease. This increases is expected due to
increasing evaporation loss from both land and
sea exceedingdi iincreased d precipitation
i it ti over th these 2b
2.b
region.
i Th The result l suggest that
h maritime-continent
ii i
Fig 2.
2 (a) Indonesian seasonal rainfall distribution (in
might undergo large changes under future climate mm/day) of reference year and (b) global precipitation
change, leading to potentially devastating changes
g ((in %)) ffor the pperiod 2090–2099 relative to 1980 –
consequences
q for other related aspects.
p 1999 based on the SRES A1B scenario (IPCC,2007). White
areas are where less than 66% change and stippled areas are
where more 90% change. Drying in much of the subtropics,
B kg
Background
d more rain in higher latitudes, continuing the broad pattern of
rainfall
i f ll changes
h already
l d observed.
b d
Fig 5. Monthly temperature and precipitation projection for
Global warming and global climate February 2100 (top) and projected changes relative to
change
h may llead d tto changes
h in
i Model : Experimental
p Design
g reference
f year (bottom).
(b )
regional
g climate, like changes g in
precipitation (amount of heavy rainfall) Summary
and in climate extremes such us The model regional
g domain covers
numberb off hoth t days,
d andd number
b off 24ox50o area,70
area 70 km horizontal grid
Future climate changeg projection
j
longg dryy spells.
p spacing 18 layers
spacing,18 layers. Grell cumulus
based on A1B scenario resulting from
convective
ti scheme
h is
i usedd to
t simulate
i l t
Concerning to Indonesia region region, within Regional Climate Model (RegCM3)
precipitation.
p p Rough
g calculation of
th period
the i d 2003-2005,
2003 2005 th there were experiment suggest that climate of the
changes is approximated by projection
about 1.429 disasters incidences. most part of Maritime-Continent
year minus reference year.year
About 53.3 percent were hydro hydro- Indonesia will be warmer in all
meteorological disasters
disasters. It is likely that Data model input p : ERA40 for year
y : seasons and wetter in the wet season
global
l b l ttemperature t increases
i will
ill lead
l d 1950-1990
1950 1990,2000;
2000; EH50M : 2050
2050, 2100 and drier in the dry season relative to
to ggreater extremes of drying y g and based on A1B Scenario
Scenario. Observation current conditions
heavy rainfall which will in turn lead to d t was ttaken
data k ffrom CRU and d CMAP
higher risk of climate hazards (IPCC (IPCC, for yyear : 2000,1999.
, A1B is a typical
yp
“business
business as usual”
usual (2090-2099)
(2090 2099)
References
2007)
2007).
scenario: Global mean warming 2 2.8
8oC.
C 1.Working Group I IPCC, “Climate Change 2007, The
Projection of climate changes at the
Physical Science Basis”. Intergovernmental Panel on
regional scale are of fundamental Cli t Ch
Climate Change, 2007
2007.
i
importance
t ffor an assessmentt off the th (Changing in seasonal rainfall amount 1951 – 2000) 2.Hulme, M. and Sheard,N., “Climate Change Scenarios
for Indonesia” Climate Research Unit,
Unit 1999.
1999
impacts
p of climate change g on human
and natural systems.
Acknowledgement
Objectives (no change)
This work
Thi k was supported
t db
by 4th Workshop
W k h on Regional
R i l
(decrease) (increase)
Cli t Model
Climate M d l 2008 ini The
Th Abd
Abdus SSalam
l IInternational
t ti l
Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP),
(ICTP) Trieste,
Trieste Italy
Italy.
ƒ Provide regional
g further information
due to climate change in Indonesia Fig.33 Observed trend changes in seasonal rainfall during
Fig Contact
1951-2000
1951 2000 based on rain gauge data in Java Island shows
using regional climate model that changes
g is not uniform
f across the island. e-mail : siswanto@students.unibe.ch
http://unibe.academia.edu/SiswantoSiswanto/