2 - Time Value of Money

1 Dr.
Pankaj Varshney
04-Oct-2013 LBSIM-PGDM(General)-Sec-A & C Batch
2013-15
Time Value of Money
Time Line
Cash Flows at-the-end of period
Cash Flows at-the-beginning of period
0 4 3 2 1
1000 1000 1000 1000
Period 1
Period 2 Period 3 Period 4
Cash Flows of Rs 1000/- each at Year-end for 4 years
Cash Flows of Rs 1000/- each at Year-beginning for 4 years
0 4 3 2 1
1000 1000 1000 1000
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4
2
2 Dr. Pankaj Varshney
2013-15
Time Value of Money
Cash flow occurring at the end of 2
nd
year is not equal
to the cash flow occurring now because of Time Value
of Money (TVM).
Why TVM?
Inflation - value of currency decreases over time.
Preference for present consumption over future
consumption- to induce people to give up present
consumption, you have to offer them more in the
future.
Uncertainty about the future - higher uncertainty (risk)
means less valuable the future cash flow.
Thus, the cash flows occurring in different time periods
have to be made comparable.
3
Time Value of Money
Take todays cash flows into the future : Future Value
Bring future cash flows to todays value: Present Value
4
0
4 3 2 1
P
FV
5
@ r%
0
4 3 2 1
P
FV
5
@ r%
2013-15
Future Value
Future Value of amount P , after n years would be:
FV
n
= P*(1+r)
n
5
Future Value Interest Factor
[FVIF (n,r)]
0
4 3 2 1
P = 1,000
FV = 1,276.28
5
@ 5%
1000*(1.05)
5
0
4 3 2 1
P
FV
5
@ r%
Future Value
6
FVIF (6 yrs,5%)
Values of FVIF for various combinations of r and n are
given in Future Value Interest Factor tables.
2013-15
Future Value (Contd.)
If you invest Rs.80,000/- @ 14%p.a., how much would it amount to
in 5 years?
0
4
3 2 1
80,000
1,54,033
5
7
Future Value of Rs. 80,000/- @14% after 5 years would
be: 80,000*(1+0.14)
5
or 80,000*FVIF (5 years,14%)
= 80,000*1.9254 = Rs 1,54,033/-
Future Value (Contd.)
8
2013-15
Future Value
9
Compounding Rate (r)
Present Value (PV
N
)
Time Period (N)
Returns the Future Value
=FV(Interest Rate, Time,, Present
Value,0(or1))
Future value
10
5%
8%
10%
12%
15%
18%
900
1400
1900
2400
2900
3400
3900
4400
4900
5400
5900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
F
u
t
u
r
e

V
a
l
u
e
Years
Higher the interest rate, faster the savings grow
2013-15
Compounding more than once a year
n*m
n
r
FV = P*(1+ )
m
Interest may be paid more than once a year.
Future Value is :
where m is no. of times interest is paid.
11
If you invest Rs.80,000/- @ 14%p.a., how much would it amount to
in 5 years, if interest is compounded (a)semi-annually, (b) quarterly?
Frequency Future Value
Semi-Annually (2) 80000*(1+0.14/2)
(5*2)
= 80000*(1.07)
(10)
= 80000*1.9672 = 1,57,372/-
Quarterly (4) 80000*(1+0.14/4)
(5*4)
= 80000*(1.035)
(20)
= 80000*1.9898 = 1,59,183/-
Compounding more than once a year
12
If you invest Rs.80,000/- @ 14%p.a., how much would it amount
to in 5 years, if interest is continuously compounded?
Future Value on continuous compounding would be:
80000*e
0.14*5
= 80000*2.0138 = 1,61,100/-
As m approaches infinity, the term (1+r/m)
n*m
approaches e
r*n
,
where e is approx. 2.71828 and is defined as
m
m
1
e=limit(1+ )
m
Future Value on continuous compounding basis is:

r n
n
FV = P*e
2013-15
Nominal vs. Effective Interest Rate
13
Frequency (m)
Nominal
Rate
Future
Value
Effective
Annual Rate
Annual 1 10% 1100.00 (1.10)-1 10.0000%
Semi-annual 2 10% 1102.50 (1+ 0.10/2)
2
- 1 10.2500%
Quarterly 4 10% 1103.81 (1+ 0.10/4)
4
- 1 10.3813%
Monthly 12 10% 1104.71 (1+ 0.10/12)
12
- 1 10.4713%
Daily 365 10% 1105.15 (1+ 0.10/365)
365
- 1 10.5156%
Continuous 10% 1105.17 exp
(0.10)
- 1 10.5171%
Daily Compounding is same as Continuous Compounding
Present Value
The process of calculating the present value of the future Cash
Flows is called discounting and the interest rate used for
discounting is called the discount rate.
14
2013-15
Present Value of a Single Cash Flow
Present Value Interest Factor
[PVIF(n,r)]
15
Values of PVIF for various combinations of r and n are given in
Present Value tables.
From our understanding of Future Value, we know that
FV
n
= P (1+r)
n
hence,
= FV
n
* PVIF (n, r)
n n
1
P=FV *
(1+r)
PVIF
(6 yrs,5%)
What is the worth of Rs.10,000/- received at the end of 3 years from
now, if the discount rate is 6% p.a.?
0
3
2
1
10,000
3
10,000=P*(1.06)
16
Present Value of Rs. 10,000 (Future Value) would be :
??
3
10,000
PV= =10,000*0.8396=Rs.8,396/-
(1.06)
2013-15
17
Present Value
18
Discounting Rate (r)
Future Value (FV
n
)
Time Period n)
= 0 End of period
= 1 Start of period
Returns the Present Value
=PV(Interest Rate, Time,,
-Future Value, 0(or1))
2013-15
19
5%
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
P
r
e
s
e
n
t

V
a
l
u
e
Years
18%
Annuity
Annuity is a stream of n equal cash flows (inflows or
outflows) at regular intervals.
If each investment is made at the END of each period, the
annuity is called Regular Annuity or Annuity in arrears
If each investment is made at the BEGINNING of each
period, the annuity is called Annuity Due.
A
0
2
1
A A
n
3
A
20
A
0
2
1
A A
n-1 3
A A
2013-15
Future Value of Annuity
n
RA
(1+r) -1
FVA = A
r
| |
|
\
21
Future Value of Regular Annuity:
A
0 2 1
A A
n 3
A A A
n-2 n-1
A(1+r)
n-1
A(1+r)
n-2
A(1+r)
n-3
A(1+r)
1
A(1+r)
2
n-1 n-2 n-3 2 1
RA
FVA = A(1+r) + A(1+r) + A(1+r) +........+ A(1+r) +A(1+r) + A
Future Value Interest Factor Annuity
[FVIFA(n,r)]
Future Value of an Annuity
22
n
AD
(1+r) -1
FVA = A (1+r)
r
| |
|
\
Future Value of Annuity Due:
n n-1 n-2 2 1
AD
FVA = A(1+r) + A(1+r) + A(1+r) +........+ A(1+r) + A(1+r)
0 2 1
A A
n 3
A(1+r)
n
A(1+r)
n-1
A(1+r)
n-2
A A
n-2 n-1
A(1+r)
1
A(1+r)
2
A
2013-15
Future Value of an Annuity (Annuity Regular)
23
Future Value of an Annuity (Annuity Due)
24
2013-15
Future Value of an Annuity
Sairam deposits Rs.50,000/- every year in a 5-year recurring deposit earning
interest @8%p.a. How much money would get accumulated in the recurring
deposit account, by the end of 5 years?
5
RA
(1.08) -1
FVA = 50,000
0.08
| |
|
\
25
Case-1 Regular Annuity:
Case-2 Annuity Due:
5
AD
(1.08) -1
FVA = 50,000 (1.08)
0.08
| |
|
\
= 50,000*6.3359= Rs.3,16,796/-
??
0 2 1
50,000
4 3
50,000 50,000 50,000
5
50,000
0 2 1
50,000
4 3
50,000 50,000 50,000
5
50,000
??
= 50,000*5.8666= Rs.2,93,330/-
Present Value of an Annuity
RA n
1 1
PVA =A -
r r(1+r)
| |
|
\
26
Present Value of Regular Annuity:
Present Value Interest
Factor Annuity
[PVIFA (n,r)]
RA 1 2 3 n-2 n-1 n
A A A A A A
PVA = + + +.........+ + +
(1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r)
3
1 n-2 n-1
0 1 n n-2 n-1
A
2
A A
3
A
A/(1+r)
1
A A
A/(1+r)
3
A/(1+r)
2
A/(1+r)
n-2
A/(1+r)
n-1
A/(1+r)
n
2
n
2013-15
27
Present Value of Annuity Due:
AD n
1 1
PVA =A - (1+r)
r r(1+r)
| |
|
\
AD 1 2 3 n-2 n-1
A A A A A
PVA = A+ + + +.........+ +
(1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r)
n n-2 n-1
A
0 2 1
A A
3
A/(1+r)
1
A A
A/(1+r)
3
A/(1+r)
2
A/(1+r)
n-2
A/(1+r)
n-1
1 3 4 n-1
n 2
A
Present Value of an Annuity (Annuity Regular)
28
2013-15
Present Value of an Annuity (Annuity Due)
29
30
=PV(Interest Rate, Time,
-Annuity,,0(or1))
Discounting Rate (r)
Time Period n)
-Annuity
= 0 End of period
= 1 Start of period
Returns the Present Value of
the Annuity
2013-15
31
Aditya is planning to buy a Single premium pension plan which
would give him an annual pension of Rs 50,000/- for the next 30
years. What should be the maximum premium that he should pay
now for the pension plan, assuming interest @9%?
30
1 1
=50000 -
0.09 0.09(1.09)
| |
|
\
=50000*10.2737=Rs.5,13,683/-
Single premium (to be paid now) = Present value of the annuities
to be received over the life of the pension plan.
Equated Monthly or Yearly Installments
32
Year
Opening
Balance
(1)
Annual
Instalment
(2)
Interest
(3) = (1)*8%
Principal
Repayment
(4) = (2)-(3)
Closing
Balance
(5) = (1)-(4)
1 250,000 62,614 20,000 42,614 207,386
2 207,386 62,614 16,591 46,023 161,363
3 161,363 62,614 12,909 49,705 111,658
4 111,658 62,614 8,933 53,682 57,976
5 57,976 62,614 4,637 57,977 0
Suppose you take a loan of Rs 2,50,000/- @8% pa to be repaid in 5
yearly equal installments. Find the amount of each installment?
RA n
1 1
PVA =A -
r r(1+r)
| |
|
\
5
1 1
2,50,000 = A -
0.08 0.08(1.08)
| |
|
\
2,50,000
A = = 62,614/-
3.9927
3,13,070 3,13,070 3,13,070 3,13,070 63,070 63,070 63,070 63,070 2,50,000 2,50,000 2,50,000 2,50,000
2013-15
Installments
33
Discounting Rate
Loan Amount
Time Period
= 0 End of period
= 1 Start of period
Returns the Amount of
Installment
=PMT(Interest Rate, Time,
-Loan Amount,,Type)
Saving for College Education
Sunil wants to send his daughter to a 4-year college, 18 years
from now. Tuition fees is Rs. 50,000 per year now which is
expected to rise @ 5% pa over the next 18 years. If Sunils
saving can earn @ 8% pa, (a) how much he should invest
(lumpsum) now to meet the expenditure, or (b) how much he
should invest each year for the same.
2013-15
Saving for College Education
Refinancing a Housing Loan
Mudit had taken a 30-year loan for Rs. 2,00,000/-, 3 years
ago @ 9%pa. The interest rate has fallen now to 7.50%pa.
He is thinking of refinancing the loan. Cost of refinancing is
2.50% of the loan. Assuming the discount rate as 6%, should
the loan be refinanced?
2013-15
Refinancing Housing Loan
Refinancing Housing Loan
2013-15
Growing Annuity
Growing Annuity is a stream of n cash flows growing @ g, paid
at regular intervals.
A(1+g)
2
0
2
1
A A(1+g)
n 3
A(1+g)
n-1
39
Growing Regular Annuity:
Growing Annuity Due:
n-1 0 2 1 3
A(1+g)
2
A A(1+g) A(1+g)
n-1
A(1+g)
3
n
Present Value of a Growing Annuity
40
Present Value of Growing Regular Annuity :
n-1 0 2 1 3
A(1+g)
2
A A(1+g) A(1+g)
n-2
1
2
A(1+g )
(1+r)
2
3
A(1+ g)
(1+r )
n -2
n -1
A(1+g)
(1+r)
1
A
(1+r)
A(1+g)
n-1
n
n -1
n
A(1+g)
(1+r )
2 n-1
RA 1 2 3 n
A A(1+g) A(1+g) A(1+g)
PVGA = + + +......+
(1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r)
n
RA
A 1+g
PVGA = 1-
r-g 1+r
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
For g r
2013-15
41
Present Value of Growing Annuity Due:
n-1 0 2 1 3
A(1+g)
2
A A(1+g) A(1+g)
n-1
2
2
A(1+g)
(1+r)
3
3
A(1+g)
(1+r)
n-1
n-1
A(1+g)
(1+r)
1
A(1+g)
(1+r)
A(1+g)
3
n
1 2 n-1
AD 0 1 2 n-1
A A(1+g) A(1+g) A(1+g)
PVGA = + + +......+
(1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r)
n
AD
A 1+g
PVGA = 1- (1+r)
r-g 1+r
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
For g r
42
Growing Regular Annuity:
If Growing Annuity Due:
5
RA
10,000 1.10
PVGA = 1- = Rs.48,042/-
0.08 - 0.10 1..08
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
The annual (year-end) lease payment of a building increase by 10%
for the next 5 years. If 8% is the appropriate discount rate and first
years payment is Rs. 10,000/-, what is the maximum amount that an
investor pay to be the recipient of these lease payments?
5
AD
10,000 1.10
PVGA = 1- (1.08) = Rs.51,886/-
0.08 - 0.10 1..08
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
2013-15
Future Value of a Growing Annuity
n
n
A 1+g
= 1- *(1+r)
r-g 1+r
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
43
n
RA RA
FVGA = PVGA *(1+r)
Future Value of Growing Regular Annuity :
n-1 0 2 1 3
A(1+g)
2
A A(1+g) A(1+g)
n-2
1
2
A(1+g)
(1+r)
2
3
A(1+g)
(1+r)
n-2
n-1
A(1+g)
(1+r)
1
A
(1+r)
A(1+g)
n-1
n
n-1
n
A(1+g)
(1+r)
n
n
AD
A(1+r) 1+g
FVGA = 1- *(1+r)
r-g 1+r
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
44
n
AD AD
FVGA = PVGA *(1+r)
Future Value of Growing Annuity Due:
n-1 0 2 1 3
A(1+g)
2
A A(1+g) A(1+g)
n-1
2
2
A(1+g)
(1+r)
3
3
A(1+g)
(1+r)
n-1
n-1
A(1+g)
(1+r)
1
A(1+g)
(1+r)
A(1+g)
3
n
2013-15
0
2
1
10,000
30 3
35 36 37 38 65
10,000(1.05) 10,000(1.05)
2
10,000(1.05)
29
n 30
FVGA = PVGA*(1+r) = 1,50,464*(1.10) = Rs. 2.625 Mn
30
10,000 1.05
PVGA = 1- = Rs. 1,50,464/-
0.10 - 0.05 1.10
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
45
Mr. Sairam is 35 years old now and wants to save each year until he
is 65. If he saves Rs 10,000/- every year and the savings grow@ 5%
pa (after the first year),how much will he have saved by age 65 if
the interest rate is 10% pa?
Step-1 : Calculate PVGA:
Step-2 : Calculate FVGA using PVGA:
Perpetuity
Perpetuity is a stream of equal cash flows at regular
intervals which lasts forever.
1 2 3
A A A
PVP= + + +......
(1+r) (1+r) (1+r)

A
0
2
1
A
A
3
46
Present Value of a Perpetuity:
A
PVP=
r
2013-15
Perpetuity
You want to endow an annual MBA graduation party at your alma
amter. The event would cost Rs.50,000/- each year forever. If the
business school earns @ 8%p.a. on its investments and the first
party is in one years time, how much will you need to donate to
endow the party?
50,000
PVGP= =Rs.6,25,000/-
0.08
1 2 3
50,000 50,000 50,000
PVGP= + + +......
(1.08) (1.08) (1.08)

47
Growing Perpetuity
Growing Perpetuity is a stream of cash flows at regular
intervals and grows at a constant rate forever.
2 3
1 2 3 4
A A(1+g) A(1+g) A(1+g)
PVGP= + + + ......
(1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r)

A(1+g)
2
0
2
1
A
A(1+g)
3
A(1+g)
3
4
48
Present Value of a Growing Perpetuity:
A
PVGP=
r-g
2013-15
Growing Perpetuity
But then you are informed that the cost of the party would increase
by 4% per year, (after the first year).How much will you now need
to donate to endow the party?
50,000
PV= =Rs.12,50,000/-
0.08 - 0.04
2
1 2 3
50,000 50,000(1.04) 50,000(1.04)
PV= + + +......
(1.08) (1.08) (1.08)

You need to double the amount of your gift !!!
49
Summary
50
Present Value Future Value
Single Cash Flow
Annuity
(Regular Annuity)
Annuity
(Annuity Due)
Growing Annuity
(Regular Annuity)
Growing Annuity
(Annuity Due)
Perpetuity
Growing Perpetuity
n
1 1
A -
r r(1+r)
| |
|
\
n
1
C
(1+r)
n
A 1+g
1-
r-g 1+r
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
A
r
A
r - g
n
1 1
A - (1+r)
r r(1+r)
| |
|
\
n
(1+r) -1
A
r
| |
|
\
n
(1+r) -1
A (1+r)
r
| |
|
\
n
n
A 1+g
1- (1+r)
r-g 1+r
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
n
A 1+g
1- (1+r)
r-g 1+r
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
n
n
A(1+r) 1+g
1- (1+r)
r-g 1+r
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
n
C(1+r)
2013-15
Where to Invest ?
Atul want to invest Rs. 10 Lac for a period of 10 years. He can invest in
Government bonds which mature in 6 years and earn interest @ 8%
pa. The expected fixed deposit rate for 6 years hence, given by a local
bank is 3.5% pa, with half yearly compounding. Meanwhile, Yep Bank
has offered an investment proposal offering 6.5% pa with quarterly
compounding for 10 years. Which proposal is better for Atul?
Option 1: Invest in Government Bonds @ 8% pa for 6 years & @ 3.5%
pa (half yearly compounding) in bank fixed deposit for next 4 years
thereafter.
51
10,00,000 * (1.08)
6
= Rs. 15,86,874.32
15,86,874.32 * (1.0175)
8
= Rs. 15,86,874.32 *1.14888 = Rs. 18,23,131/-
Option 2: Invest in Yep Bank 10-year Fixed deposit @ 6.5% pa
(quarterly compounding) for 10 years.
10,00,000 * (1.01625)
40
= 10,00,000* 1.90556 = Rs. 19,05,560/-
Better to deposit with Yep Bank.
The MBA Decision
52
2013-15
Valuation of Securities
54
Valuing a Zero-coupon Bond
Consider a Zero-coupon Bond with face value of Rs. 5,000/- payable
at the end of 3 years. What should be the price of the bond today,
if the required rate of return is 5%?
n
n
F
Value of ZCB =
(1+r)
0 3
5,000
V = = Rs.4,319.19
(1.05)
0
3
2
1
5,000
??
2013-15
55
Valuing a Coupon Bond
n
0 1 2 3 n n
F A A A A
V = + + +.....+ +
(1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r)
NTPC issues 14% bonds of Rs.10,000/- face value, redeemable after 5
years. Assuming the required rate of return is 10%, what should be
the price of the bond today?
0 1
5 4
A
2
A A
3
A/(1+r)
1
A+F A
A/(1+r)
3
A/(1+r)
2
A/(1+r)
4
A+F/(1+r)
5
n
t n
t=1
Coupon Interest Face Value of Bond
Value of Coupon Bond = +
(1+r) (1+r)
56
Valuing a Coupon Bond
5
t 5
t=1
1,400 10,000
= +
(1.10) (1.10)
Face Value = Rs.10,000 ; Coupon rate = 14% pa;
Tenure = 5 Years; Required rate of return = 10%;
Value of Bond= ??
5
t
0 t 5
t=1
A F
V = +
(1+r) (1+r)
=1,400*PVIFA(5yrs, 10%) + 10,000*PVIF(5 yrs, 10%)
=1,400*3.79079 + 10,000*0.62092
= 5,307.10 + 6,209.21 = Rs.11,516.31
2013-15
57
Valuing Equity : Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
Value of an equity share is the present value of the stream of
expected future dividends discounted at an appropriate discount
rate.
3 1 2
1 2 3
D D D D
Value = + + +..........+
(1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r)
t
t
t=1
D
Value =
(1+r)
General Form of DDM
Value of a stock = PV(expected future dividends)
58
DDM - Constant Growth
If the dividends are expected to grow at a constant rate g,
and r > g, then,
Assumptions:
D
1
> 0
Dividends grow at a constant growth rate g =ROE*b
Dividend Payout ratio (1-b) is constant
1 2 3
1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4
D D (1+g) D (1+g) D (1+g)
V = + + + +..........+
(1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r)
1
0
D
V =
(r - g)
2013-15
59
DDM - Constant Growth
D
1
=Rs.3/- ; g= 7% forever, r = 13%, what should be the
Value of the equity share?
1
D 3.00
Value = = = Rs.50/-
(r - g) (0.13 - 0.07)
60
DDM - Multiple Growth Rate
n
t-1 t n n+1
0 n t n
t=1
n
D (1+g ) V D
V = + where V =
(1+r) (1+r) r - g
n
t-1 t n+1
0 t n
t=1
n
D (1+g ) D 1
V= +
(1+r) (1+r) r - g

`
)
A firm may pass through different growth phases and hence

dividends may also grow at different rates.
1 2
1 1 1 2 2 2 2
0 1 2 3 4
D D (1+g ) D (1+g ) D (1+g )
V = + + + +..........+
(1+r) (1+r) (1+r) (1+r)
2013-15
61
DDM - Multiple Growth Rate -Illustration
D
0
= 3.50; g
1-3
=15% g
4-6
=12% g
7+
=8% ; r = 12% ; Value = ??
D
1
= 4.03; D
2
= 4.63; D
3
= 5.32; D
4
= 5.96; D
5
= 6.68; D
6
= 7.48; D
7
= 8.08
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6
4.03 4.63 5.32 5.96 6.68 7.48 8.08 1
V = + + + + + +
(1.12) (1.12) (1.12) (1.12) (1.12) (1.12) (0.12 - 0.08) (1.12)

` `
) )
0
P = 124.78 Rs. 125/-
62
Value of a Business
= Rs.23,92,380/-
Case-1 Growing Regular Annuity:
Case-2 Growing Annuity Due:
50
RA
3,00,000 1.025
PVGA = 1-
0.15 - 0.025 1.15
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
50
RA
3,00,000 1.025
PVGA = 1- (1.15)
0.15 - 0.025 1.15
| |
| |
|
|
|
\
\
= Rs.27,51,245/-
Indicoffee, a popular coffee shop located in a busy shopping mall, is
expected to generate net cash flows of Rs 3 Lacs a year. If the
cash flows increase @ 2.5% pa for the next 50 years, what is the
worth of the coffee shop? (assume discount rate of 15%)

2 - Time Value of Money

Transféré par

Informations du document

Description originale:

Titre original

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

2 - Time Value of Money

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

1 Dr.

Future Value on continuous compounding basis is:

A firm may pass through different growth phases and hence

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi