Clim Dyn (2011) 36:22332249 DOI 10.

1007/s00382-010-0931-y

Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earths most important biodiversity hotspots
lvarez n Poveda Diana M. A Germa Oscar A. Rueda

Received: 25 October 2009 / Accepted: 11 October 2010 / Published online: 30 October 2010 Springer-Verlag 2010

Abstract The hydro-climatic variability of the Colom oSouthern Oscillation bian Andes associated with El Nin (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantied in terms of their sign, timing, and o (La Nin a), the region experimagnitude. During El Nin ences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSOs effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during DecemberFebruary, and weaker during MarchMay. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low o (mainly during dry seasons), but values during El Nin a. A suite of large-scale saturation values during La Nin and regional mechanisms cooperating at the oceanatmosphereland system are reviewed to explaining the identied hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to

an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identied as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the regions valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change. Keywords Tropics Hydro-climatology Andes Colombia ENSO Biodiversity

1 Introduction 1.1 Threats from deforestation and biodiversity loss in the tropical Andes Colombia is located in northwestern South America amidst complex geographical and hydro-climatological features arising from its equatorial setting, in combination with: (1) strong topographic gradients of the three branches of the Andes crossing from southwest to northeast, (2) atmospheric circulation patterns over the neighboring tropical Pacic and Caribbean Sea, (3) its share of the Amazon and Orinoco River basins hydro-climatic dynamics, and (4) strong landatmosphere feedbacks. Since a decade ago, the tropical Andes have been identied as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth (Myers et al. 2000), or the region subject to the highest rates of biodiversity loss in the planet. Such situation is caused by human encroachment, deforestation, land use/land change for agriculture, mining, and extensive cattle ranching. Current rates of deforestation amount to

lvarez O . A. Rueda G. Poveda (&) D. M. A School of Geosciences and Environment, n, Colombia Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medell e-mail: gpoveda@unal.edu.co lvarez D. M. A e-mail: dmalvare@gmail.com Present Address: . A. Rueda O n, Colombia Grupo HTM, Medell e-mail: orueda@grupohtm.org

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340,000 ha per annum (R. Lozano, pers. comm., 2010). Colombia is one of the top countries in biodiversity richness worldwide, but the ongoing deterioration of the tropical Andes constitutes an serious threat to the regions sustainable development. The purpose of this review is twofold. First, it aims at providing a scientic framework to understand the dynamics of the regions hydro-climatic variability at interannual timescales, which are mainly controlled by the o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) two phases of the El Nin o (warm phase) and La Nin a (cold phase). system: El Nin This knowledge necessarily has to be taken on board to anticipating, mitigating and coping with the effects from global environmental change (Poveda and Pineda 2009), and their concomitant environmental, social and economic losses. Second, it constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, aimed at taking action and mobilizing resources and minds to set back the further destruction of the regions valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources. Such situation needs to be tackled from the political and institutional arenas, but also from the science of endangered ecosystems. Structural and non-structural measures, legislation, conservation programs and projects need to be implemented, based on scientic research of the regions hydrology and water resources (Poveda 2004a), atmospheric sciences, climatology, carbon and other trace gases budgets, biogeochemical cycles, atmospheric chemistry, etc. Equally needed are studies about interactions between natural ecosystems and social systems, and on the increasingly relevant issue of compensation for ecosystems services, among others. Research must be funded to prevent further deforestation and degradation of the regions fragile but precious ecosystems. These tasks need to conform a scientic program aimed at implementing decisionmaking tools and knowledge-based systems and actions, and public policies to face the urgent challenges brought about by deforestation and biodiversity loss over the tropical Andes. With the aim of providing a broader context, we review the main climatic features of the tropical Andes of Colombia, and provide a short literature review on the linkages between ENSO and the regions hydro-climate variability. Further sections quantify the effects of both phases of ENSO on the variables making part of the regions surface water balance. 1.2 Hydro-climatology of the Colombian Andes In terms of the spatial distribution of precipitation Snow (1976) describes the Andes as a dry island in a sea of rain, but a detailed understanding of atmospheric dynamics and precipitation over the Andes covering a wide

range of time and space scales is missing. The three branches of the Andes house a broad range of ecosystems and life zones including tropical rainforests, cloud forests, paramos, glaciers, dry forests, deserts, and large intraAndean valleys in a predominant northerly direction. Rainfall over the Andes deserves a careful analysis, since the role of topography on the genesis and dynamics of weather patterns and rainfall cannot be overstated. Deep convection developed over strong topographic gradients leads to deep convection that triggers highly intermittent and intense storms in space and time. Thereby, the space time distribution of rainfall over the tropical Andes exhibit quite a strong variability, evidenced by markedly different diurnal cycles even at nearby raingauges (Poveda et al. 2005). The three branches of the Andes exhibit elevations surpassing 5,000 m, and house rapidly receding tropical glaciers on the verge of extinction (Poveda and Pineda 2009), and long and skinny intra-Andean valleys. Extreme precipitation amounts are witnessed over the Pacic coast of Colombia, including one of the rainiest regions on Earth (averaging 10,00013,000 mm per year), which can be explained through ocean-atmosphere-topography interactions enhanced by the action of a low-level westerly jet (Poveda and Mesa 2000). On seasonal timescales, central and western Colombia experience a bimodal annual cycle of precipitation (Fig. 1) with marked high-rain seasons (AprilMay and SeptemberNovember), and low-rain seasons (DecemberFebruary and JuneAugust), mainly driven by the double passage of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) (Eslava 1993; a et al. 1999; Leo n et al. 2000; Poveda et al. 2007). Mej Rainfall exhibits a uni-modal annual cycle (May October) at the northern Caribbean coast of Colombia and at the Pacic ank of the southern isthmus, reecting the northernmost position of the ITCZ over both the continent and the eastern equatorial Pacic, respectively (Hastenrath 2002; Poveda et al. 2006). Another single annual peak (JuneAugust) occurs at the eastern slope of the eastern Andes, resulting from the encounter of the moisture-laden trade winds from the Amazon with the Andes. The meridional migration of the ITCZ is strongly intertwined with other atmospheric phenomena, including: (1) the westerly low level Choco jet off the Pacic coast of Colombia (Poveda and Mesa 2000; Stensrud 1996; Mapes et al. 2003a, 2003b; Xie et al. 2008; Sakamoto et al. 2009), (2) mesoscale convective systems (Velasco and Frisch a and Poveda 2005), (3) 1987; Poveda and Mesa 2000; Mej the low level jet in the Caribbean trade winds (Poveda and a et al. 1999; Mestas-Nun ez et al. 2005; Mesa 1999; Magan oz et al. 2008; Amador 2008), and (4) the Wang 2007; Mun easterly portion of the South American low level circulation embedding a low level jet, which inuences the Colombias eastern Andes (Montoya et al. 2001), before

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G. Poveda et al.: Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO Fig. 1 Annual cycle of average precipitation during the 19721998 period at diverse raingauges located in the central Andes of Colombia, within the the 1150 N7460 N latitudinal band. From Poveda et al. 2001c

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veering and heading southwesterly to southern South America and reaching to La Plata River basin (Marengo et al. 2004). At intra-seasonal time scales, the westerly and easterly phases of the 4050 day intra-seasonal oscillation (Poveda et al. 2005; Arias 2005), and the dynamics of tropical easterly waves during the boreal summer-autumn are known to affect precipitation regimes over different nez 1993). At shorter timeregions of Colombia (Mart scales, the diurnal cycle of maximum rainfall exhibits sharp differences even among nearby raingauges (Poveda et al. 2005), while hourly and 15-min rainfall exhibit fractal behavior in space and time (Hurtado and Poveda 2009; Poveda 2010). 1.3 ENSO-driven interannual variability o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main forcing El Nin mechanism of interannual climate variability from hours to seasons to decades. In general, the warm phase of ENSO o) begins during the boreal spring, exhibiting a (El Nin strong phase locking with the annual cycle, and encompassing two calendar years characterized by increasing sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during the boreal spring and fall of the onset year (Year 0), peaking in winter of the following year (Year ? 1). Anomalies then decline in spring and summer of the ensuing year (Year ? 1). Details of ENSO dynamics and their impacts worldwide can be found at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/enso/. The hydro-climatic effects of ENSO in the tropical Americas have been investigated by Hastenrath (1976, 1990), Hastenrath et al. (1987), Waylen and Caviedes (1986), Ropelewski and Halpert (1987), Aceituno (1988, 1989), Kiladis and Diaz (1989), Marengo (1992), Poveda and Mesa (1997), Marengo and Nobre (2001), Ronchail et al. (2002); Poveda and Salazar (2004), Ropelewsky and Bell (2008), Grimm and Tedeschi (2009), Nobre et al. (2009), Misra (2009) and Xavier et al. (2010), among others. Physical mechanisms of ENSO-related hydroclimatic anomalies over the region are discussed by Poveda

et al. (2006). In particular, the effects of ENSO on Colombia are studied by Poveda (1994, 2004b); Poveda rrez and Dracup (2001), Waylen and Mesa (1997), Gutie and Poveda (2002), Poveda et al. (1999, 2001a, 2003, 2006), Tootle et al. (2008), and Aceituno et al. (2009), among others. This work reviews a suite of hydro-climatic anomalies at interannual timescales, with emphasis on the Colombian Andes during the extreme phases of ENSO. For estimation purposes, anomalies of precipitation, river discharges, soil moisture, and vegetation index (NDVI) are statistically linked with different ENSO indices, and their spacetime consistence is discussed in Sects. 24. Section 5 summarizes the physical mechanisms of the regions oceanatmosphereland surface system that cooperate to explain the identied ENSO-driven hydro-climatic anomalies in the tropical Andes of Colombia.

2 Precipitation 2.1 EOF and correlation analysis Figure 2 shows iso-correlations between 3-month running means of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Indo-Pacic and the rst Principal Component of monthly standardized records of 88 raingauges along the Andes of Colombia. High quality data, with very few missing monthly records were provided by IDEAM and Empresas blicas de Medellin. The highest correlations appear over Pu o-4 and Nin o-3 regions, but also over the easternthe Nin most fringe of the Pacic Ocean by the tropical Americas. Nevertheless, correlations shown in Fig. 2 are lesser than those with the rst Principal Component of river discharges in the Andes of Colombia (Fig. 8 of Poveda and Mesa 1997), which evidences that ENSO signal is stronger for river ows and weaker in rainfall records. Such conclusion can be explained by the higher temporal persistence in the former ones, and a higher intermittency of rainfall in time, but also because river discharges result from the

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Correlation map SSTs vs. PC No. 1 monthly rainfall in Colombia

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Fig. 2 Iso-correlations (%) between sea surface temperatures and the rst principal component of the Colombian standardized monthly rainfall at 88 raingauges, for the 19581998 period

cooperative effects of rainfall, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and inltration in river basins, which contribute altogether to lter out rainfalls high frequency variability. The said study of Poveda and Mesa (1997) showed that ENSOs inuence on anomalies of river discharges appears earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes, proceeding in a wave-like westerly propagating fashion. Such conclusion was obtained through cross-correlation analysis between 3-month running means of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and standardized monthly river ows. No explanation has been provided for such behavior. Here, we contribute towards that explanation by examining whether it is also the case for rainfall anomalies. Figure 3 shows cross-correlations between 3-month running averages of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and standardized rainfall records at ve raingauges in Colombia, for the period 19581994. The SOI corresponds to the traditional (Standardized TahitiStandardized Darwin) sea level pressures, as is dened by the US Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ data/indices/). Cross-correlations indeed exhibit maximum values at earlier (later) time lags over the western (eastern) Andes, conrming the wave-like westerly-propagating ENSO signal on monthly rainfall anomalies. As a conjecture, such spatial rainfall dynamics could be attributed to the intra-seasonal oscillation over the region (Arias 2005), or by a combination of the direct effects of ENSO on sea surface temperatures over the eastern Pacic, thus weakening the strength of the winds of the Choco low level jet, and by long-distance teleconnections affecting the Amazon and eastern Colombia during both phases of ENSO, which are reviewed in Sect. 5. 2.2 ENSOs effect on the diurnal cycle of rainfall Rainfall in the Colombian Andes exhibit clear-cut diurnal (24 h) and semi-diurnal (12 h) cycles, with seasonally shifting diurnal maxima, while peak hours are extremely sensitivity to raingauge location (Poveda et al. 2005). The

effects of both phases of ENSO on the amplitude of the diurnal cycle are consistent throughout the Andes, as the o, hourly and daily precipitation decreases during El Nin a. For illustration, we used an and increases during La Nin hourly data set of 55 raingauges located on the Andes of Colombia, covering the period 19721999, with no more than 5% of missing records. Figure 4 shows the diurnal cycle of rainfall at 19 selected raingauges over the northern

Fig. 3 Behavior of cross-correlations between 3-month running averages of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and standardized rainfall at ve raingauges in Colombia, estimated for the period 19581994. From west to east: Ansermanuevo, La Bella, Cabrera, . Negative lags correspond to the SOI Monterredondo and Ramiriqu leading the hydrology, and the y-scale in each diagram goes from -1.0 to 1.0. Notice that the peaks of correlations (P [ 0.95) occur later in raingauges located farther east

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o (red), and La Nin a (blue). The Fig. 4 Average diurnal cycle of rainfall intensity at selected raingauges over the northern Andes during El Nin study period corresponds to 19721999. Error bars are not shown for clarity

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2238 Fig. 5 Simultaneous evolution of bi-monthly averaged standardized anomalies of the Nare River at Santa Rita (Antioquia; 6200 N, 75100 W), along with the negative of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). The correlation coefcient is 0.60, statistically signicant at 99%

G. Poveda et al.: Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO

Andes, as well as the consistent effect of both phases of ENSO on the diurnal cycle of rainfall. Overall, a clear-cut o decrease in rainfall intensity is witnessed during El Nin a (blue). (red), and an increase and La Nin 2.3 River discharges 2.3.1 Average monthly river ows Figure 5 shows the evolution of bi-monthly averaged standardized anomalies of the Nare River at Santa Rita (Department of Antioquia) alongside the (negative) Multivariate ENSO Index. Very good quality river discharges blicas de Medellin. A data set was provided by Empresas Pu statistically signicant correlation of 0.60 indicates that El o (La Nin a) is strongly associated with negative Nin (positive) monthly river discharge anomalies. Seasonal correlations (next section) exhibit even larger values. Such strong association provides an excellent prediction tool of average monthly river discharges in Colombia (Poveda et al. 2003, 2008), and makes ENSO an excellent early warning system for multiple applied sectors in Colombia including disaster preparedness and mitigation, hydropower generation (Poveda et al. 2003), agriculture (Poveda et al. 2001a), water supply, uvial transport, infrastructure construction, and human health outcomes of malaria and dengue (Poveda and Rojas 1996; Poveda et al. 2001b), among others. In spite of that knowledge, the ongoing La a (October 2010) has affected more than 1,000,000 Nin people, causing 92 deaths and 122,000 ooded houses at more than 400 municipalities in 28 out 32 Departments country-wide. The strong association between ENSO and river discharges anomalies are reected in their probability distribution functions (PDF). Frequency histograms were estimated for different phases of ENSO, using the classication dened by NOAA (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml), and taking the hydrological year from June (Year 0) to May

Fig. 6 Frequency histograms of monthly river ows of La Vieja River at Cartago (Valle del Cauca; 4460 N, 75540 W), during ENSO o (center), and La Nin a (bottom). Each phases: Normal (top), El Nin panel contains the estimated values of the sample mean (m) and standard deviation (sd). The study period corresponds to 19581996

(Year ? 1). Figure 6 illustrates the frequency histograms for La Vieja River (Cartago, Valle del Cauca), with data from 1958 to 1996 provided by IDEAM. The identied changes in the PDFs of river discharges conrm the collapse of stationarity as one of the fundamental tenets in hydro-climatological time series analysis.

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2.3.4 Maximum annual and monthly ows Extreme hydrological events are also affected by both extreme phases of ENSO, such that in general, droughts o (La Nin a). Figure 10 (oods) are amplied during El Nin shows the annual cycle of average maximum daily ows at diverse river gauges throughout Colombia, for the 19702000 period. Good quality data sets were provided by o (red), La IDEAM. Colors denote ENSO phases: El Nin a (blue). The hydrological year is considered from June Nin (Year 0) to May (Year ? 1), as those months are the least o and La Nin a. As impacted by the onset or demise of El Nin in the case for average monthly ows, the annual cycle of average maximum daily ows indicates that ENSO effects are larger and felt earlier over the western Andes, whereas effects are smaller and felt later over the eastern Andes. We have discussed that ENSO imposes a non-stationarity and persistent dynamics in time series of river discharges, which invalidates the stationarity and independence hypotheses required by traditional probabilistic estimation of annual peak ows. Thus, estimation of oods needs to be conditioned on ENSO phase. Figure 11 shows the ENSO phase-dependant PDFs of maximum annual (hourly) river ows of the Negro River at Colorados (Cundinamarca), during the 19602006 period, estimated with the procedure introduced by Waylen and Caviedes (1986).

Fig. 7 Annual cycle of average ows of the Cauca River at Salvajina a (Valle del Cauca; 4450 N, 75500 W) during ENSO phases: La Nin o (red). The study period (blue), Normal (black), and El Nin corresponds to 19581998

2.3.2 ENSOs effects on the annual cycle ENSO affects the amplitude of the annual cycle, although not so the phase. Figure 7 shows the estimated average annual cycle of the Cauca River at Salvajina, during both phases of ENSO for the 19581998 period, estimated with monthly data provided by IDEAM. The amplitude increa a, and decreases during El Nin o, although ses during La Nin the phase remains the same. Furthermore, the effects of ENSO on river ows vary with the seasonal cycle. Figure 8 shows estimates of seasonal lagged correlations between the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and river discharges throughout Colombia, with very good quality data sets provided by IDEAM and Empresas Publicas de Medellin. In general, very large negative simultaneous and lagged seasonal correlations appear, in particular for the MEI during September November (SON) and river ows in DecemberFebruary (DJF). o-related anomalies 2.3.3 Different avors of El Nin The relationship between ENSO and the regions hydroclimatology is rather complex. Although both phases of ENSO exhibit robust dynamical features, they vary in duration, magnitude and timing (Trenberth 1997), and so do ENSO-related hydrological anomalies. Figure 9 shows the evolution of standardized discharge anomalies (averages o events, at depicted with thicker line) during past El Nin four separated rivers in central Colombia, estimated with o-driven hydrological data provided by IDEAM. El Nin anomalies differ in timing, amplitude and duration, although their averages (thicker line) exhibit the featured robust o-driven negative anomalies. Such behavior of El Nin hydrologic anomalies demands continuous research to understand the physical mechanisms driving their relationship, which in turn can contribute to develop much better river discharges forecasting methods, a highly relevant task for planning and management of hydropower generation (Poveda et al. 2003 and 2008), among other sectors.

3 Soil moisture Soil moisture plays an important role in tropical South America climate dynamics at seasonal and interannual timescales (Poveda and Mesa 1997), and makes part of ENSO-related hydro-climatic anomalies, owing to its role in controlling land surface-atmosphere interactions, through processes like evapotranspiration, latent heat and sensible heat uxes, and atmospheric boundary layer dynamics. Soil moisture data gathered at different land-cover types over the tropical Andes show a remarkable dynamics at seasonal and interannual timescales. Soil moisture data consists in averaged daily records at Cenicafe research station (5000 N, 75360 W, 1,425 m a.s.l.) on the the Central Andes of Colombia during two consecutive extreme phases o 199798, and La Nin a 19982000. Data of ENSO: El Nin were gathered at three different land cover types: secondary forest, sunlit coffee, and shade coffee. Data shows that annual and interannual (ENSO) cycles are strongly coupled. Figure 12 shows the time series of 10-day average soil moisture content for the three land cover types at 20-cm depth, along with their sample frequency histograms. Values of 40-cm depth soil moisture contents (not shown) are a bit larger than those at 20-cm, due to the stronger effects of evapotranspiration at 20-cm depth. During the

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Fig. 8 Estimates of seasonal lagged correlations between the MEI and river discharges throughout Colombia. First row MEI in March May (MAM) versus river ows in MAM and ensuing seasons, second row MEI in JuneAugust (JJA) and river ows in JJA and ensuing seasons, third row MEI in SeptemberNovember (SON) and river

ows in SON and ensuing seasons, and fourth row MEI in December February (DJF) and river ows in DJF and ensuing seasons. Filled circles denote statistically signicant correlations with respect to the circles shown at the bottom. From Poveda et al. 2002

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o events depicted with different color Fig. 9 Time evolution of standardized anomalies at four noted river gauging stations, during past El Nin marks, for the previous year (-1), onset year (0), and following year (?1). The black thick line denotes average of anomalies

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o (red), La Nin a (blue) for selected rivers throughout Colombia. The Fig. 10 Annual cycle of average maximum daily ows during El Nin abscissa axis denote the annual cycle from June (Year 0) to May (Year ? 1). The average study period corresponds to 19702000

less rainy seasons (JulySeptember 1997 and December 1997March 1998), soil moisture reached minimum values o. During the ensuing owing to 19971998 El Nin a, soil moisture did not exhibit the 19982000 La Nin normal annual bi-modality, reaching saturation values throughout the whole year. Under sunlit coffee, soil moisture exhibited much more pronounced decits than under shade coffee and forest, which indicates that the o-related former is more prone to water stress. Thus, El Nin dry spells might be mitigated via land cover and land use,

which is also a relevant conclusion bearing on the possible effects of climate change. A detailed analysis of the statistical parameters of 10-day soil moisture time series indicates that: 1. Estimated values of the mean, l, indicate that shade coffee exhibits greater soil moisture values than forest and sunlit coffee. Estimated values of the mean, l, and standard deviation, r, for sunlit coffee evidence larger dispersion

2.

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Log-NormalDistribution
Nio Data Nia Data Normal Data

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3000 2500

2000 1500 1000 500 0 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0

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Fig. 11 Log-Normal probability distribution functions for annual oods of the Negro River at Colorados (Cundinamarca; 530 N, 74340 W), tted for the three phases of ENSO. Study period is 19602006

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4.

and unimodal probability distribution functions (PDF). This behavior can be attributed to higher intermittency of soil moisture for sunlit coffee. Higher values of the standard deviation, r, and the kurtosis, j, for sunlit coffee indicate more extreme values of soil moisture, and therefore fatter tails, higher intermittency, a lower capacity of soil water retention, and bimodal PDFs. Soil moisture contents at secondary forest and shade coffee exhibit similar values and temporal behavior, with values around the mean, owing to a larger water regulation capacity. Water stress also depends on landcover type.

These observations show that soil moisture constitute an active key variable of climate variability during ENSO in the tropical Andes, owing to its strong control of evapotranspiration, and therefore on recycled precipitation, as well as of percolation (Rueda et al. 2010).

4 Vegetation activity (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration Up to now we have reviewed the effects of ENSO on the regions precipitation, river discharges, and soil moisture dynamics. The effects on actual evapotranspiration should be quantied to cover all the variables involved in the surface water balance. Towards that end, we use the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate measure for evapotranspiration. The NDVI is a satellite-derived index dened as the ratio of (NIR - Red) and (NIR ? Red), where NIR is the surface-reected radiation in the near-infrared band (0.731.1 lm), and Red is the reected radiation in the red band (0.550.68 lm).

NDVI represents the photosynthetic capacity or photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) absorption by green leaves, and therefore it is linked to evapotranspiration and plant growth. Theoretically, NDVI takes values in the range from -1 to 1, but the observed range is usually smaller, with values around 0 for bare soil (low or no vegetation), and values of 0.9 or larger for dense vegetation. The NDVI data set was obtained from the NASA Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS NDVI) at 8 km spatial resolution during the July 1981November 2002 period (Tucker et al. 2005). The GIMMS NDVI data set exhibits diverse improvements with respect to previous NDVI data sets, including corrections for: (1) residual sensor degradation and sensor inter-calibration differences, (2) distortions caused by persistent cloud cover in tropical evergreen broadleaf forests, (3) solar zenith angle and viewing angle effects, (4) volcanic aerosols; (5) missing data in the Northern Hemisphere during winter using interpolation; and (6) short-term atmospheric aerosol effects, atmospheric water vapor effects, and cloud cover. Estimates of lagged seasonal correlations between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and NDVI data for the July 1981November 2006 period are shown in Fig. 13. Redish colors represent high positive correlations, while bluish colors represent high negative correlations, indicat o, but ing that NDVI is strongly reduced during El Nin a. A detailed analysis of seasonal enhanced during La Nin correlations evidences high positive simultaneous correlations (panels on the main diagonal), in particular during DecemberFebruary (DJF), and September-November (SON), although less over the eastern and southern parts of Amazonia during MarchMay (MAM). One season lagged correlations (above the main diagonal and left bottom panels) indicates that SOI in MAM exhibit high positive correlations with NDVI in JJA from north-east Brazil to the Andes, and high negative correlation between the SOI in JJA and NDVI in SON in northern South America. The SOI in SON exhibits high positive correlations with NDVI in DJF all over tropical South America. Figure 13 denotes the continental-scale effect of ENSO on vegetation activity over tropical South America. Assuming that NDVI is an appropriate surrogate for evapotranspiration, the observed correlations are in agreement with the observed anomalies in precipitation, river discharges, and soil moisture during both phases of ENSO over the region.

Discharge(m3/s)

o 5 Physical mechanisms associated with El Nin The previously discussed ENSO-related hydro-climatological anomalies in the tropical Andes of Colombia result

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2244 Fig. 12 Time series of 10-day soil moisture content under three different land cover types at Cenicafe research station (5000 N, 75360 W, 1,425 m a.s.l.) along with their sample frequency histograms. Panels a, b, and c correspond to 20-cm soil moisture at forest, shade coffee, and sunlit coffee, respectively. Statistical parameters of the series are shown at the bottom right of each panel as follows: mean (l), variance (r2), standard deviation (r), and kurtosis (j)

G. Poveda et al.: Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO

from diverse physical mechanisms co-operating at the regions oceanatmosphereland surface system, summarized as follows: 1. The reduction of the SST gradient over the eastern o 1 ? 2 region and the ColomPacic between El Nin bian Pacic weakens the winds of the Choco jet, thus reducing moisture advection inland (Poveda and Mesa 2000; Poveda et al. 2001a), as well as the number and intensity of mesoscale convective systems (MCS)

2.

(Velasco and Frisch 1987; Zuluaga and Poveda 2004; Mejia and Poveda 2005). In general, the opposite a, with the concomitant situation occurs during La Nin intensication of the Choco jet winds and number of MCSs. Negative anomalies in moisture advection by the Choco jet winds contribute to explain negative rainfall anomalies reported over central and western Colombia. Perturbations in the tropical atmospheric circulation o lead to the establishment of an patterns during El Nin

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Fig. 13 Estimates of seasonal lagged correlations between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over tropical South America. First row SOI in DecemberFebruary (DJF) versus NDVI in DJF and ensuing seasons, second row SOI in MarchMay (MAM) and NDVI in DJF

and ensuing seasons, third row SOI in JuneAugust (JJA) and NDVI in DJF and ensuing seasons, and fourth row SOI in September November (SON) and ensuing seasons. Correlations are quantied according to the color bar on the bottom. The study period is July 1981 through November 2006

3.

anomalous Hadley cell over tropical South America. The subdued ascent of moist air and associated reduction in convective precipitation explain the anomalously high surface pressure over the region, particularly during DecemberFebruary, as noted by Rasmusson and Mo (1993) during 19821983, o events, and 19861987, and 19911992 El Nin diagnosed by Yasunari (1987) and Aceituno (1988). Diverse characteristics such as position, and horizontal and vertical structure of thermal forcing over the tropical Pacic during boreal winters appear as important determinants of the phase and amplitude of ENSO-related anomalies over the tropical Ameri a 1999). cas (Ambrizzi and Magan Atmospheric pressure changes over tropical South o contribute to the shift the America during El Nin

4.

centers of convection within the ITCZ over the eastern Equatorial Pacic towards the south-west of their normal positions (Pulwarty and Diaz 1993). It has been suggested that precipitation anomalies over the region during ENSO events are caused by an anomalous eastward shift of the Walker cell, which would produce an anomalous rising motion over the equatorial eastern Pacic and a sinking motion over the tropical Atlantic (Kousky et al.1984). Although there have been attempts to describe the entire zonal circulation of the tropics (Flohn and Fleer 1975; Wang 1987), it seems that the Walker cell is not well dened beyond the Pacic region (Hastenrath 1991, p. 210). It has been recognized that ENSO inuences the large-scale eastwest and meridional circulations in the global tropics that have implications over

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G. Poveda et al.: Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

tropical South America (Misra 2008; Grimm 2003, 2004). Weakened feedbacks between precipitation and surface convergence in tropical South America are associated with the aforementioned anomalies in the Hadley cell circulation (Numaguti 1993) and in the trade winds over the Caribbean. Also, during ENSO there is a large-scale anomalous upper-level divergence over continental tropical South America. The featured wave-like westerly propagation ENSO signal on hydrological anomalies cause a disruption of landatmosphere interactions, owing to the strong coupling between precipitation, soil moisture, vegetation, and evapotranspiration anomalies (Nepstad et al. 1994; Jipp et al. 1998; Poveda and Mesa 1997; Zeng 1999; Poveda et al. 2001a; Poveda and Salazar 2004; Nobre et al. 2009). A reduction in evapotranspiration also contributes to diminish the amount of recycled precipitation. Diminished cloudiness promotes increased solar irradiance and surface temperatures, thus reinforcing dry conditions. Even in wet tropical climates, water stress can be imposed on o tropical forests, as in the case of strong El Nin events (Oren et al. 1996; Marengo et al. 2008). Land surface-atmosphere feedbacks are important mechanisms to explaining anomalies in precipitation and upper level divergence over northern South America (Poveda and Mesa 1997; Misra 2009). The interannual anomalies in precipitation (Lau and Sheu 1988; Hsu 1994; Kousky and Kayano 1994) are associated with negative anomalies in soil moisture (Nepstad et al. 1994; Jipp et al. 1998; Poveda and Mesa 1997; Fisher et al. 2008). The hydrological connection between soil moisture and river discharges validates the conclusions drawn from the isocorrelation maps shown in Fig. 8. Negative anomalies in evapotranspiration in tropical ro smarty South America (Nepstad et al. 1994; Vo et al. 1996; Poveda and Mesa 1997; Malhi et al. 2002; Meir et al. 2009; Phillips et al. 2009; Meir and Woodward 2010) lead to further precipitation decits, as large proportions (2550%) of rainfall in the Amazon basin have been estimated as derived from evapotranspiration recycling (Shuttleworth 1988; Elthair and Bras 1994; Trenberth et al. 2003). This is a crucial aspect of the land-atmosphere feedback mechanisms during ENSO over tropical South America. Negative anomalies in evapotranspiration over tropi o may also cal South America during El Nin contribute to weaken the pumping effect of atmospheric moisture exerted by the Amazon forest, a physical mechanism put forward recently by

11.

12.

Gorshkov and Makarieva (2007), and Makarieva et al. (2009). During the boreal summer of Year 0, the northeast o (La trade winds intensify (weaken) during El Nin a). However, in concordance with the noted Nin changes in surface pressures during the boreal winter (3), the winds weakens and even reverse in Year ? 1, triggering a change in sea surface temperatures over the Caribbean and the tropical North Atlantic (Hastenrath 1976; Curtis and Hastenrath 1995). SSTs positive anomalies and the strength of the trade winds over the Caribbean play an important role in decreasing the intensity and number of tropical easterly waves and tropical storms (Frank and Hebert 1974; Gray and Sheaffer 1991), thus contributing to diminish precipitation over the Caribbean and northern South America, including Colombia.

6 Final remarks The ENSO-driven hydro-climatic variability of the tropical Andes of Colombia at interannual timescales was reviewed. The strong seasonality of such an inuence has been quantied on precipitation, average and extreme river discharges, soil moisture, and NDVI as a surrogate of evapotranspiration. Extreme phases of ENSO constitute the main driver of hydro-climatic anomalies, resulting from the combined effects of SSTs anomalies off the Pacic coast off Colombia, in addition to atmospheric teleconnections o 3 and and land surfaceatmosphere feedbacks. The Nin o 4 regions over the central tropical Pacic exhibit the Nin highest correlations with rainfall in the tropical Andes. o Seasonal cross-correlation analyses conrm that El Nin (La Nina) produces drier (wetter) than normal and more prolonged dry (wet) seasons in the Andes of Colombia. River discharge and rainfall data show that the effects of ENSO appear earlier (later) and stronger (weaker) over the western (eastern) Andes. Seasonal correlations indicates that ENSO indices become important and valuable tools to forecast many hydro-climatological variables in the region. We have also shown that soil moisture dynamics is a key component of climate variability over the tropical Andes o and from seasonal to interannual timescales. Both El Nin a affect the dynamics of soil moisture on the region, La Nin and their effect depends on land cover type. The coupling between the vegetation-soil system and land cover strongly modulates (space-) time hydro-climatic variability in the o-related dry spells tropical Andes, and therefore El Nin might be ameliorated via land cover and land use. This in turn suggests an appropriate adaptation strategy to cope with the effects of climate change.

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Besides ENSO, other macro-climatic phenomena affect the hydro-climatic variability of the tropical Andes. Among them, there are signicant statistical correlations between the NAO and Colombias hydrology (Poveda et al. 1998), as well as with the PDO and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Atlantic (Poveda 2004b). The nonlinear interactions of such macro-climatic phenomena with the ITCZ, the Choco and Caribbean low-level jets, and with other physical mechanisms acting at intra-annual timescales (intra-seasonal oscillation, tropical easterly waves, etc.), coupled with land surface-atmosphere interactions produce the featured hydro-climatic variability pattern at the Colombian Andes. This knowledge contributes to improve hydro-climatic predictability, with important practical implications for agriculture, hydropower generation, uvial transport, natural hazards and disasters, and human health outcomes in the region. Our study sheds light to understand how the interannual hydro-climatic variability could affect a suite of biological and ecological processes in two critical regions, namely the tropical Andes and the headwaters of the Amazon, a river basin of global hydro-ecological and biodiversity importance. A fundamental research programme for the region will have to deal with implications for biodiversity and ecosystems functioning arising from feedbacks between global warming, deforestation, land use/land change, and the reviewed ENSO-related interannual hydro-climatic variability.
Acknowledgments This research was supported by COLCIENCIAS and Universidad Nacional de Colombia through the GRECIA a, MeteoroResearch Programme. We thank Instituto de Hidrolog a y Estudios Ambientales de Colombia (IDEAM), Empresas log n (EPM), and Cenicafe for providing hydrological blicas de Medell Pu n data sets. NDVI data set was provided by C.J. Tucker and J. Pinzo from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. We are grateful to ndez, C.D. Hoyos, V. Toro, A. Ceballos, H.A. Moreno, O.O. Herna and L.A. Acevedo for their help with some gures, and to Peter Bunyard, the Editor, Dr. Edwin K. Schneider, and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and insights to improve the manuscript.

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