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Overview

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS


DECEMBER 2013

Divergence

Overview 02
DIVERGENCE

Sweden 03
RECOVERY FOR HARD HIT EXPORT INDUSTRY

Norway 05
DOWNTURN DRIVEN BY THE HOUSING MARKET

Denmark 07
SHIFTING GEARS

Finland 09
ANOTHER COLD WINTER
1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

Key figures 11
NORDEA MARKETS FORECASTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Overview

Divergence
The Nordic countries currently display diverging economic growth patterns. The once so strong Norwegian economy is heading for a sharp downturn, while Denmark, the past years growth laggard, is gaining momentum after several years of housing market crisis. The Swedish export sector has faced massive problems over the past few years, but now better times are ahead as activity internationally picks up. Finland is struggling with huge growth problems related to both domestic and foreign demand.
World economy on an uptrend

Being small, open economies the Nordic countries rely heavily on global economic trends. And our current forecasts for the Nordic economies build on expectations of softer winds sweeping over the Nordics from around the globe in coming years. The US seems to be undergoing a self-sustaining economic recovery, the Euro area finally escaped the grip of recession during the spring, and the UK is currently witnessing a small economic miracle that will contribute to improving the export potential of Nordic companies. Moreover, the risk of a hard landing for the Chinese economy now seems to be eliminated, and Japan, the other Asian superpower, is back on the growth track. This also supports the outlook for the Nordic countries both directly and indirectly through Asias growing economic significance. We see global economic growth at 3% this year, accelerating to close to 4% in 2015, see the table below. This is a small downward revision compared to our September forecast. We have revised down our growth forecasts for the Nordic region for the years 2013-15 by about % point.
New Nordic growth pattern

gradually rising domestic demand. By agreeing on the budget for 2014, a majority of Danish MPs offered a mild boost to the economy in 2014, for instance by bringing forward some of the tax cuts designed to improve the competitiveness of Danish businesses, which were included in Growth Plan Denmark. Against this backdrop we still expect growth in the Danish economy to be sufficiently strong to trigger a real labour market turnaround sometime next year. The housing market, for several years the Achilles heel of the Danish economy, is also stabilising, and in the years ahead we expect to see slightly rising home prices nationwide, albeit still with significant geographical differences. Growth in the Swedish economy has remained weak in 2013. Domestic consumption is growing at a decent pace, but exports have not started to pick up mainly due to weakness among European economies. The economy will gain momentum in 2014, when exports contribute to growth as global demand improves. In election year 2014 the domestic economy is stimulated by an expansionary economic policy mainly benefitting households. Investment activity will pick up as production rises. Employment continues to increase, gradually reducing unemployment. Meanwhile, inflation remains below the 2% target during the forecast period. Household debt and a positive economic outlook have made the Riksbank refrain from cutting the repo rate, and persistent low inflation and a high unemployment rate will delay the first rate hike until late 2014. The short-term outlook for the Finnish economy is weakened by the lack of both international and domestic demand. Aggregate demand in the economy does not increase at all in 2013. Foreign trade volumes and investment are predicted to fall compared with the year earlier, and with stagnant purchasing power households can only increase their spending moderately. The labour market is expected to deteriorate throughout the year. Exports are expected to recover following a pick-up in world trade volumes. In 2014, we see exports as well as investment and private consumption gradually gaining more momentum.
Real growth, % World Nordics Denmark Finland Norw ay Sw eden 2011 4.0 2.2 1.1 2.7 2.5 2.9 2012 3.3 1.0 -0.4 -0.8 3.4 0.9 2013E 3.0 0.8 0.3 -1.0 1.8 1.0 2014E 3.7 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.4 2015E 3.9 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.2 2.4

After several years of very high growth the Norwegian economy is now showing clear signs of a marked slowdown, and we have revised down our growth forecast significantly since the September issue of Economic Outlook. We see clear evidence of a housing market setback and expect home prices to decline in both 2014 and 2015. This will adversely affect housing construction. Declining house prices, lower income growth and mounting economic uncertainty will affect consumer spending, which is already showing lower-than-expected growth this year. At the same time oil investment is about to peak and looks set to decline sharply as early as 2015. Mainland GDP growth next year and in 2015 is expected to end up at around 1% or nearly half of what we projected three months ago. But two rate cuts and a potential substantial increase in oil revenue spending coupled with a weak NOK and higher global activity should dampen the downturn. The Danish economys expected shift into a higher gear will be driven by improved business cycles abroad and

Source: Nordea Markets, IMF, own calculations

Helge J. Pedersen, Global Chief Economist


helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 3333 3126

2 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Sweden

Recovery for hard hit export industry


Exports increasing again Labour market continues to strengthen Inflation to remain low for a long time Sidelined Riksbank will not hike rates until H2 2014
More broadly based growth next year

shrunk over the past year or two. Meanwhile, during the same period the SEK has strengthened against many currencies, thus adding to the pressure on export businesses. Over the past months the decline in exports of goods has levelled out. Indicators overall have improved, but still suggest a slow recovery. Our baseline scenario factors in rising growth in Swedens export markets. One exception, however, is Norway where economic growth is expected to decelerate. In recent years Norway has been the biggest buyer of Swedish exports, and with a growth slowdown here and huge challenges in the Euro area the recovery in exports will be relatively slow. Not until 2015 will exports of goods have returned to the levels prevailing before the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting a nearly 7-year period of stagnation. Exports of services, currently accounting for one-third of exports, have shown a more stable trend and also look set to perform well going forward.
Household demand hits new highs, budget in the red

The Swedish economy has shown signs of weakness in the past two years, mainly due to hard times for the export industry. The domestically oriented sectors, on the other hand, have performed better. But next year we expect the export sector to recover slightly in tandem with the improved economic momentum globally. Also domestic demand will likely grow further from an already decent level. Against this backdrop we expect GDP growth to pick up to around 2.5% next year, while slowing somewhat in 2015 (calendar adjusted). We thus foresee a modest recovery in coming years mainly because the global economy is still suffering from the repercussions of the financial crisis.
Better prospects for the export sector

Exports of goods fell 1% last year and there is every indication that the downtrend will continue this year. This means that for the first time in decades exports of goods will decline for two consecutive years. The main reasons for the prolonged downtrend are subdued demand in the rest of Europe as well as a weak trend in exports to the US and the BRIC countries despite growth in these markets. A closer look at the distribution of exports across different types of goods reveals that most goods are affected by the downtrend. Heavy cyclical sectors such as the capital goods and commodities sectors have gradually

Households are still the key driver of growth. Conditions are even more benign following the surprisingly strong increase in employment. Real incomes should rise by some 2.5% annually in 2013-15, partly driven by low interest rates and tax breaks next year. Household savings are already high and both stock markets and house prices have increased. Against this background it is hardly surprising that sentiment has improved, indicating healthy growth in household consumption going forward. The budget for election year 2014 includes unfunded reforms worth some SEK 25bn, most of them benefiting households. The reforms provide some stimulus to the

Sweden: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)


Private consumption Government consumption Fixed investment - industry - residential investment Stockbuilding* Exports Imports GDP GDP, calendar adjusted Nominal GDP (SEKbn) Unemployment rate, % Employment grow th Consumer prices, % y/y Underlying inflation (CPIF), % y/y Hourly earnings, % y/y Current account (SEKbn) - % of GDP Trade balance, % of GDP General govt budget balance (SEKbn) - % of GDP Gross public debt, % of GDP
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)

2010 (SEKbn) 1,617 890 602 74 110 23 1,651 1,445

3,337

2011 1.7 0.8 8.2 17.1 10.4 0.5 6.1 7.1 2.9 2.9 3,481 7.8 2.3 3.0 1.4 3.2 258 7.3 2.6 0 0.0 38.6

2012 1.6 0.3 3.3 8.3 -11.2 -1.2 0.7 -0.6 0.9 1.3 3,550 8.0 0.6 0.9 1.0 3.3 224 6.3 2.4 -20 -0.5 38.2

2013E 1.9 1.3 -1.2 -3.4 7.0 -0.2 -1.4 -2.0 1.0 1.0 3,619 8.0 1.1 0.0 0.9 2.5 218 6.0 2.4 -52 -1.4 41.4

2014E 2.4 1.3 3.3 3.1 10.1 0.4 2.9 3.4 2.4 2.5 3,765 7.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 2.9 218 5.8 2.4 -67 -1.8 41.6

2015E 2.2 0.8 3.7 5.5 3.4 0.0 4.7 4.5 2.4 2.2 3,916 7.5 0.5 2.1 1.4 3.0 232 5.9 2.4 -44 -1.1 41.6

3 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Sweden economy, but result in a budget deficit corresponding to almost 2% of GDP. No unfunded reforms are likely for 2015 so the budget deficit should decline thanks to higher economic activity.
Labour market to improve The export sector to recover
120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Swedish exports of goods per quarter, sa, rhs Index 2005=100 Global trade, advanced economies (Source: CPB) SEKbn 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100

In both 2012 and 2013 the number of people employed rise largely in step with the pick-up in GDP, which is unusual and partly a consequence of low productivity growth. The number of people employed should continue to rise at a healthy clip also in coming years despite slightly higher productivity. However, unemployment looks set to decline modestly and even at the end of the forecast period to remain above 7%, in our view equalling the structural level of unemployment. The employment ratio, which in many ways is a more relevant indicator than unemployment, is already at the historical average.
A difficult balancing act for the Riksbank

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

High unemployment despite increased employment


4900 4800 4700 4600 7.0 4500 4400 4300 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Thousands of people Unemployment, sa, rhs

% of the labour force

9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5

Inflation is largely influenced by the slowdown in the global economy. Firstly, the pay deal of the hard-pressed manufacturing industry is a benchmark for other sectors, which has led to historically low pay deals in most sectors. Secondly, price pressures around the world are low overall, which spills over to Swedish inflation through low import prices. Lastly, the relatively slow recovery suggests that cost pressures will remain moderate also in coming years. We expect core inflation (CPIF, defined as the CPI with fixed mortgage rates) to remain below the 2% target also in 2015. For the Riksbank this is a difficult balancing act, with a strong domestic economy and an improved outlook overall versus sustained low inflation. Rising house prices and higher credit growth are products of the benign trend in the domestic economy, and these two factors are among those still carefully watched by the Riksbank. The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority now has primary responsibility for macroprudential policy, but this does not imply any radical changes to monetary policy in the short term, although it should have an impact longer term. Against this backdrop we expect the repo rate to remain at the current level of 1.0% until H2 2014, when we see the first rate hike coming. The hiking cycle should, however, be moderate over the forecast period. Although the Riksbank will likely act carefully, a change to its monetary policy line will stand out in an environment where rate hikes in many cases seem very remote. The level of interest rates and the relatively strong Swedish economy support the SEK. We see the SEK gaining ground versus the EUR, but weakening versus the USD. Torbjrn Isaksson
torbjorn.isaksson@nordea.com +46 8 614 8859

Employment, sa

6.5 6.0 5.5

Inflation (CPIF) to stay below 2% target


5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CPIF % y/y CPI % y/y 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Temporarily weaker SEK in the autumn


8.50 USDSEK EURSEK 10.50

8.00 USDSEK 7.50

10.00

9.50

7.00

9.00

6.50 EURSEK, rhs 6.00 10 11 12 13

8.50

8.00

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

4 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Norway

Downturn driven by the housing market


Norwegian economy set to weaken Housing market and oil investment act as a drag Rate cuts and oil money spending dampen downturn NOK to stay relatively weak We have sharply revised down our growth forecast for Norway since the latest issue of Economic Outlook in September. There are clear signs of a turnaround in the housing market, and we see house prices declining in both 2014 and 2015. This will contribute to a sharp drop in housing construction. Meanwhile, oil investment is about to peak. Going forward, we expect oil investment to grow moderately in 2014 and decline sharply in 2015. Declining house prices, lower income growth and mounting economic uncertainty will affect consumer spending, which is already showing lower-than-expected growth rates this year. Growth in mainland GDP next year and in 2015 is now expected to be around 1%, roughly half the rate we projected three months ago. A weak NOK and slightly higher growth outside Norway will help mitigate the slowdown. Other supporting factors should be two rate cuts and a potential substantial increase in oil revenue spending.
Consumers tighten their purse strings

autumn, with bigger-than-expected price declines, a rising number of unsold homes, strong growth in the number of homes on the market, a slower sales process and lower turnover than last year. New home sales plummeted to levels similar to those prevailing at the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008. Against this backdrop of housing market weakness we have changed our forecast for housing prices: we see prices declining 7% in 2014 and 8% in 2015. By end-2015 house prices should have dropped 15-20% from current levels. Given the sharp pick-up in house prices over the past ten years, we do not consider a drop of 15-20% outrageous. And average house prices will not fall below the levels seen at end-2010. But key factors here are the potentially large swings in household demand. The decline in new home sales suggests that the drop in housing starts will continue and, in our view, likely result in a steep decline in housing investment over the next two years.
Declining oil investment

The weak trend in consumption in Q2 and Q3 was a disappointment. The decline in retail sales over the summer can be explained by the exceptionally nice and warm weather, but retail sales did not recover during the autumn. Lower growth in households purchasing power, slightly higher unemployment and mounting uncertainty about housing market trends will likely continue to dampen consumer spending growth going forward. Also housing market indicators disappointed during the

Weaker consumption growth and decelerating housing construction are not the only reasons for the marked slowdown in the economy in the years ahead. Also oil investment appears to be about to peak, with relatively modest growth next year, according to Statistics Norways investment survey. Estimates from The Norwegian Oil and Gas Association suggest that oil investment will decline sharply in 2015. This will have an adverse effect on mainland companies through lower demand, and the reduced profitability of oil-related sectors will dampen growth in both wages and consumption. Lower growth and economic uncertainty will curb mainland business investment. However, the already low level of investment in many sectors, the improved global out-

Norway: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)


Private consumption Government consumption Fixed investment - gross investment, mainland - gross investment, oil Stockbuilding* Exports - crude oil and natural gas - other goods Imports GDP GDP, mainland Unemployment rate, % Consumer prices, % y/y Core inflation, % y/y Annual w ages, % y/y Current account (NOKbn) - % of GDP Trade balance, % of GDP General govt budget balance (NOKbn) - % of GDP
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)

2010 (NOKbn) 1,132 591 537 383 141 126 1,141 562 316 776 2,750 2,090

2011 2.5 1.8 7.6 8.5 9.8 0.1 -1.8 -6.2 0.0 3.8 1.2 2.5 3.3 1.2 0.9 4.2 351.0 12.8 13.3 373.6 13.6

2012 3.0 1.8 8.0 3.7 19.1 -0.2 1.8 0.9 2.6 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.2 0.8 1.2 4.0 413.2 14.2 13.2 417.9 14.3

2013E 2.2 2.1 6.3 2.9 14.0 -0.1 -2.5 -5.0 0.3 2.3 1.0 1.8 3.6 2.1 1.6 3.6 312.6 10.6 9.7 345.0 11.7

2014E 1.5 2.5 0.2 -0.8 2.0 0.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.3 3.8 1.8 2.0 3.5 374.0 12.0 11.0 350.0 11.2

2015E 1.8 3.5 -4.0 -1.3 -10.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 3.0 0.8 1.0 1.2 4.2 1.8 1.8 3.3 389.0 12.0 11.1 365.0 11.3

5 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Norway look, the weaker NOK and plans of large-scale investment in power plants suggest that mainland business investment overall may increase slightly in coming years.
Exports a bright spot Housing investment down due to lower house prices
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Housing investments Forecasts 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

% y/y House prices

% y/y

20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15

A much weaker NOK and rising growth in export markets indicate that exports from the mainland economy will rise going forward. But exports of oil-related equipment and services have risen sharply over the past years, so the upside potential here is somewhat weaker. Moreover, the past years relatively sharp pick-up in wage costs in Norway will also dampen the uptrend in exports.
Public consumption also on the increase

Declining housing construction and a weak trend in both oil investment and consumer spending will lead to markedly lower growth momentum in Norway, allowing the government to fulfil a number of its pre-election pledges. A combination of tax cuts and increased infrastructure investment should mitigate the downtrend. We also expect Norges Bank to cut rates to counter the slowdown in growth. Despite the changes to economic policy, growth in Norway will slow markedly and unemployment will go up. However, some factors will contribute to limiting the increase in unemployment. We think that both lower productivity growth and lower working hours will cause employment growth to slow less than mainland economic growth. A lower labour participation rate and reduced net immigration will also curtail the labour supply and dampen the pick-up in unemployment.
Moderate wage and price growth

Weak income growth; even weaker spending growth


5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Private consumption % y/y Real disposable income % y/y 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Manufacturing industry boosted by oil investment


50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 94 Investment petroleum sector, 4Q mov. avg. 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Manufacturing production, 4Q mov. avg., rhs NOK Index 122.5 120.0 117.5 115.0 112.5 110.0 107.5 105.0 102.5 100.0 97.5 95.0

A modest increase in unemployment coupled with hard times for many industries points to moderate wage growth well below Norges Banks projection for the coming years. But with weak productivity growth and a weak NOK, core inflation will nevertheless stay around 2% next year, ie close to Norges Banks estimate. In 2015 the effect of the NOK weakening should fade, causing inflation to drop slightly.
Rate cuts and a weaker NOK

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Against the backdrop of rising unemployment, lower capacity utilisation and prospects of gradually declining inflation, Norges Bank will likely cut rates twice in 2014. Markets are currently not pricing in any rate cuts and are not likely to do so until well into 2014, when we expect the NOK to weaken further. But until then we see some NOK appreciation from current levels as the NOK weakening during the autumn appears to be an overreaction compared to the development of interest rate differentials, risk appetite and oil prices. Erik Bruce
erik.bruce@nordea.com +47 2248 4449

NOK relatively weak now versus 2Y yield spread


8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 Feb Aug 11 Nov Feb May Aug Nov 12 EURNOK Feb May Aug 13 Nov EURNOK Spread Norwegian and EUR 2Y rate, reversed rhs % points 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Katrine Godding Boye


katrine.boye@nordea.com +47 2248 7977

6 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Denmark

Shifting gears
Optimistic households, cautious consumers Exports could be key Investment appetite returning slowly Fiscal policy giving maximum support to economy The Danish economy is shifting gears, driven by improving business cycles internationally and gradually rising domestic demand. Against this backdrop we maintain our growth forecast for the coming years, projecting growth of 0.3% in 2013, 1.3% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015. In the next couple of years the Danish economy will thus grow at a faster rate than the potential growth rate of just under 1%. This means that unemployment will begin to edge lower and other idle capacity in the economy will be brought into use. However, with an output gap of around 2% it will still take a long time before the Danish economy is again operating at full capacity.
Exports could be key Optimistic households, cautious consumers

According to current confidence indicators, Danish households are still upbeat about both their own financial situation and the economy going forward. However, the growing optimism has yet to show through in actual consumer spending, which grew by a mere 0.7% in the first three quarters of 2013. Especially the retail sector has been hard hit as retail sales over the past year alone have declined by more than 2% to a 10-year low. We expect consumer spending growth to gradually gain momentum going forward.
Investment appetite returning slowly

Despite record low interest rates and the opening of the temporary investment window, investment activity remains at a low level. One reason for this is probably significant underlying uncertainty about the strength of the recovery. But against this backdrop there is a good chance that business investment will rise fairly sharply once the recovery gains momentum.
Gradually higher inflation

Over the past year the value of Danish exports has increased to DKK 1,000bn. Accounting for around 55% of GDP, exports will therefore be a key component of the engine driving the Danish recovery. And at first glance, the odds of rising exports are good. Confidence indicators in Germany and the UK, takers of more than onefourth of total Danish goods exports, reflect a resumed uptrend in demand. In stark contrast to previously, developments in the other Nordic countries constitute the biggest uncertainties for exports. Especially the steep slowdown in the Norwegian economy may adversely affect exports. Currently, Danish goods exports to Norway total around DKK 43bn annually, making Norway the fourth-largest export market. Denmark is mainly exporting machinery and processed goods to Norway.

During the summer the year-on-year rate of increase in consumer prices fell to a 45-year low. Accordingly, inflation dropped from 2.6% in August 2012 to a mere 0.4% in August 2013. But over the past two months inflation has started to edge higher. We see this as the beginning of a new uptrend mainly driven by base effects related to energy prices and the fading effect of the indirect tax on fat and sugar.
Fiscal policy giving maximum support to economy

By agreeing on the budget for 2014, a majority of Danish MPs offered a mild boost to the economy in 2014, for instance by bringing forward some of the tax cuts of Growth Plan Denmark and jacking up the job allowance

Denmark: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)


Private consumption Government consumption Fixed investment - government investment - residential investment - business fixed investment Stockbuilding* Exports Imports GDP Nominal GDP (DKKbn) Unemployment rate, % Gross unemployment level, '000 persons Consumer prices, % y/y Hourly earnings, % y/y Nominal house prices, one-family, % y/y Current account (DKKbn) - % of GDP General govt. budget balance (DKKbn) - % of GDP Gross public debt, % of GDP
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)

2010 (DKKbn) 855 510 301 39 67 194 -3 888 790 1,760

2011 -0.7 -1.4 3.3 4.4 17.8 -1.7 0.4 7.0 5.9 1.1 1,792 6.1 160 2.8 -2.8 -2.8 107 5.9 -34.9 -1.9 46.4

2012 -0.1 0.4 0.8 7.7 -8.0 2.8 -0.3 0.4 0.9 -0.4 1,826 6.2 162 2.4 1.5 -3.3 109 6.0 -77.5 -4.2 45.6

2013E 0.5 0.3 1.7 5.0 -6.2 4.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 0.3 1,847 5.9 153 0.8 1.2 2.7 120 6.5 -20.0 -1.1 44.1

2014E 1.2 0.6 3.4 -4.0 3.3 5.2 0.0 2.9 3.2 1.3 1,898 5.9 154 1.4 1.5 2.0 110 5.8 -25.0 -1.3 43.7

2015E 2.0 0.6 2.9 -3.5 3.8 4.0 0.0 3.6 3.8 1.7 1,961 5.8 151 1.6 1.9 2.9 100 5.1 -35.0 -1.8 44.4

7 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Denmark to make it more attractive for people to work. Longer term, this will contribute to lifting the potential growth rate of the Danish economy. However, the risk is that this relatively accommodative fiscal policy line implies huge pressure on GDP growth next year. If GDP growth once again turns out to be a disappointment, there is a risk that public finances end up violating the cap on the structural budget deficit of maximum 0.5% of GDP set by the Danish Budget Act.
Labour market turnaround only in H2 2014 Higher GDP growth
450 DKKbn 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Trend, 1992-2012 DKKbn 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275

Labour market trends throughout 2013 have been quite extraordinary. Since the beginning of the year registered unemployment (gross) has declined by 10,000 persons (full-time equivalents). The drop took place despite an average growth rate of a meagre 0.1% in the first three quarters of the year, which is below the level normally required to trigger actual progress in the labour market. The surprise decline in unemployment was prompted by a higher registered labour force exit rate caused for instance by the unemployment benefit reform.
Stabilising housing market

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Value of Danish goods exports

After a long, turbulent period the housing market seems to be stabilising. In the course of 2013 prices of both single-family houses and owner-occupied flats have moved higher, albeit amid low turnover and with substantial geographical differences. We think the ongoing stabilisation is coming from a strong foundation, with historically low interest rates and rising disposable incomes contributing to ensuring the long-term sustainability of the recovery. Against this backdrop we expect home prices to continue to gradually pick up in coming years, driven especially by the market for homes in and around the major cities. The biggest risk to the fragile housing market recovery is sudden rapid upward pressure on interest rates, especially if this is not accompanied by a pick-up in employment. However, we see only marginally higher policy rates over the forecast period as the ECB is not likely to sanction its first rate hike until sometime during H2 2015. And even though both market rates and the Danish central banks lending rate are expected to rise before that, it should not disturb the uptrend in the housing market. Helge J. Pedersen
helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 3333 3126

Slow labour market turnaround


3.000 mill.persons 2.975 2.950 2.925 2.900 2.875 2.850 2.825 2.800 2.775 2.750 2.725 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Gross unemployment, rhs Employment '000 persons 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Ongoing stabilisation of the housing market


110 DKK per sqm. 100 90 DKK per sqm. 110 100 90 80 Single-family houses 70 60 Owner-occupied flats 50 40 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Jan Strup Nielsen


jan.storup.nielsen@nordea.com +45 3333 3171

80 70 60 50 40

8 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Finland

Another cold winter


Economic recovery still elusive Exports will not recover until 2014 Employment will continue to weaken Consumption will grow much slower than normal
Economic recovery still elusive

Recovery still eludes the Finnish economy. The latest statistics offer very few signs of recovery, even though the outlook has improved clearly in the rest of the world and global leading indicators point towards continued economic activity across the board. With this in mind, we have revised down our growth estimates for the Finnish economy in 20132015. Our new GDP growth forecasts are -1.0% for 2013 (down from -0.5%), 0.8% for 2014 (down from 1.5%) and 2.0% for 2015 (down from 2.3%). We have revised down the growth estimates of virtually all components of GDP for the entire forecast period. One sign of weak activity is that aggregate demand will subtract this year as it did last year with decreased exports and investment and stagnated private consumption. 2014 will be slightly better, as exports and private consumption will grow moderately but investment will continue to decrease. It is not until 2015 that all demand components are expected to be rising.
Exports will not recover until 2014

confidence indicators have for long anticipated. Consequently, trade flows have not increased as expected. This is also reflected in the imports of Finland's most important trading partners: their imports have either increased very moderately (for example, the UK, the US and Russia) or even decreased further (Sweden and Germany). In order for the Finnish exports to grow, the imports of the trading partners must also grow. From this point of view, the significant slowdown of Russian growth is a bad thing. In the short term, another obvious obstacle is the notable share of investment goods within exports.
Employment will continue to weaken beyond the summer of 2014

During the four latest quarters with published data, total production has contracted in Finland around 2% from the year earlier. It is not surprising that employment has weakened, but it is surprising how little unemployment has risen. There seems to exist a worrying trend in which a certain portion of the unemployed drops entirely out of the labour market. This is bad news for efforts to narrow the sustainability gap in public finances. The unemployment rate of somewhat above 8% paints too pretty a picture. The labour market will continue to weaken because economic growth will remain subdued. We estimate employment to decrease well into 2014. The simultaneous decrease in the labour force will restrict the rise in the unemployment rate and keep the rate at 8.4% on average.
Consumption will grow much slower than normal

We said in our September forecast that the recovery of the Finnish economy rests on a pick-up in exports, as the outlook for domestic demand will inevitably remain subdued with employment falling. This is still true. However, as opposed to earlier expectations, the pick-up in exports now does not seem likely before 2014, either. Global trade has still not reached the pace that the

In the next few years, private consumption will grow much slower than normal with various factors hindering

Finland: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)


Private consumption Government consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding* Exports Imports GDP Nominal GDP (EURbn) Unemployment rate, % Industrial production (output), % y/y Consumer prices, % y/y Hourly w ages, % y/y Current account (EURbn) - % of GDP Trade balance (EURbn) - % of GDP General govt budget balance (EURbn) - % of GDP Gross public debt (EURbn) - % of GDP
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)

2010 (EURbn) 99 44 34 -1 72 70 178.7

2011 2.6 0.5 5.7 1.4 2.7 6.2 2.7 188.7 7.8 3.8 3.4 2.7 -2.7 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7 -1.3 -0.7 92.8 49.2

2012 0.2 0.6 -1.0 -1.3 -0.2 -1.0 -0.8 192.5 7.7 -2.1 2.8 3.2 -3.6 -1.8 0.1 0.1 -3.4 -1.8 103.1 53.6

2013E 0.0 0.5 -2.4 -0.6 -1.8 -1.9 -1.0 195.0 8.1 -4.0 1.5 2.0 -3.9 -2.0 1.0 0.5 -4.5 -2.3 111.5 57.2

2014E 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.2 3.0 2.4 0.8 199.3 8.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 -4.0 -2.0 0.9 0.5 -4.7 -2.3 120.2 60.3

2015E 1.5 0.4 4.1 0.1 5.4 4.9 2.0 206.7 8.1 3.0 1.6 1.5 -3.9 -1.9 1.2 0.6 -4.3 -2.1 128.3 62.1

9 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Finland the household purchasing power. Employment will decrease more than estimated, income level and pensions will rise clearly less than in the past few years and taxes will be higher, as more than 100 municipalities will raise their tax rate and commodity taxes will be raised selectively. Weaker labour market and minute improvement in the purchasing power will keep households cautious and force them to carefully consider major purchases despite the fact that interest rates are expected to remain exceptionally low for a long while. Household cautiousness is reflected in the reduced willingness to take out loans, decreased demand of durable goods and drop in the number of housing sales. In January-September, the volume of new housing loans taken out by households decreased 20% from the year earlier. At the same time, housing sales decreased a little less than 15%.
Weak short-term outlook in investment Imports of major trading partners not expanding
50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0 05
Germany United Kingdom Russia Sweden United States

% y/y

% y/y

50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0

Note: 3M mov. avg.

-50.0

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Finnish manufacturing heading up from the bottom

Construction companies do not want to build apartments for later demand, so the cooling down in the housing market has made them wary. New home building permits decreased 30% in January-September compared to one year ago and were in September close to the bottom reached in 2009 after the financial crisis. The low number of permits and initiated projects suggests that new construction will continue to decrease in the first half of 2014 at least. The shortage in the supply of new residences will compensate for weak demand and stabilise housing prices. Reconstruction will, however, moderate the decline in construction. Moreover, the outlook for traditional machinery and equipment investment as well as non-residential construction is subdued. The capacity utilisation rate of the manufacturing industry is lower than usual, and new orders still do not show any signs of pick-up. The industrial sector suffers directly from the difficulties in exports, as the value of goods exports corresponds to about half of its turnover. In addition, it suffers indirectly from the weakness of private consumption through orders from the domestic retail sector. Due to the challenging demand situation, there is no significant need to increase capacity in manufacturing and retail.
Consumer price inflation to slow down

Employment to deteriorate past summer 2014

Less upside pressure on consumer prices

The economic recession, unused production capacity, weaker employment, lower producer prices and stabilised wholesale and housing prices will restrict the rise in consumer prices to 1.5% this year. Due to the weak economic outlook, the upward pressure on prices will remain limited in the forecast period, so we have revised down our price forecasts. We estimate consumer prices to rise 1.5% in 2014 and 1.6% in 2015.

Pasi Sorjonen
pasi.sorjonen@nordea.com +358 9 165 59942

10 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Key figures
Growth, %
World1) USA Euro area China Japan Denmark Norw ay Sw eden UK Germany France Italy Spain Finland Estonia Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania India Brazil Rest of World 2011 4.0 1.8 1.5 9.3 -0.6 1.1 2.5 2.9 1.1 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 2.7 9.6 4.5 4.4 5.5 5.9 7.5 2.8 4.5 2012 3.3 2.8 -0.5 7.8 2.0 -0.4 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.0 -2.4 -1.6 -0.8 3.9 1.9 3.5 5.6 3.6 5.1 0.9 3.7 2013E 3.0 1.7 -0.4 7.7 1.8 0.3 1.8 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 1.0 1.4 1.9 3.9 4.0 5.0 2.4 3.1 2014E 3.7 3.0 1.0 7.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.4 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.8 3.1 3.2 2.0 4.4 3.8 6.0 2.2 3.9 2015E 3.9 3.2 1.5 7.0 1.0 1.7 1.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.8 4.0 2.2 3.2 4.0 6.5 2.5 4.2

Inflation, %
World1) USA Euro area China Japan Denmark Norw ay Sw eden UK Germany France Italy Spain Finland Estonia Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania India Brazil Rest of World 2011 5.0 3.1 2.7 5.4 -0.3 2.8 1.2 3.0 4.5 2.5 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.4 5.0 4.3 8.5 4.4 3.4 9.5 6.6 6.8 2012 3.9 2.1 2.5 2.6 0.0 2.4 0.8 0.9 2.8 2.1 2.2 3.3 2.4 2.8 3.9 3.7 5.1 2.3 2.8 7.5 5.2 6.3 2013E 3.6 1.5 1.4 2.7 0.4 0.8 2.1 0.0 2.5 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.9 1.0 6.3 0.7 1.7 6.0 6.2 6.3 2014E 3.7 1.8 1.0 3.5 2.3 1.4 1.8 0.9 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.1 5.9 3.0 2.5 6.5 5.8 5.9 2015E 3.9 2.3 1.5 4.0 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.6 3.1 2.5 5.8 2.3 2.8 7.0 5.6 5.5

1) Weight ed average of 184 count ries. Weight s f or all countries and dat a f or Rest of World are f rom the most recent World Economic Outlook, by the IM F. The weights are calculat ed from PPPadjust ed GDP-levels

Public finances, % of GDP


USA Euro area China Japan Denmark Norw ay Sw eden UK Germany France Italy Spain Finland Estonia Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania India Brazil 2011 -8.4 -4.1 -1.1 -10.0 -2.0 13.6 0.0 -7.8 -0.8 -5.3 -3.7 -9.6 -0.7 1.2 -5.0 7.0 -3.5 -5.5 -6.7 -2.6 2012 -6.8 -3.7 -1.6 -10.2 -4.2 14.3 -0.5 -6.3 0.1 -4.8 -2.9 -10.6 -1.8 -0.2 -3.9 0.0 -1.5 -3.0 -5.5 -2.1 2013E -3.9 -3.1 -1.9 -10.0 -1.1 11.7 -1.4 -6.3 0.0 -4.2 -2.8 -6.8 -2.3 -0.4 -4.4 -0.7 -1.0 -2.8 -5.3 -3.3 2014E -3.1 -2.5 -2.0 -9.5 -1.3 11.2 -1.8 -5.5 0.1 -3.8 -2.5 -5.5 -2.3 -0.5 4.5 -0.8 -0.5 -2.4 -5.5 -3.6 2015E -2.4 -2.4 -2.1 -9.0 -1.8 11.3 -1.1 -3.0 0.2 -3.7 -2.3 -4.1 -2.1 -0.1 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.0 -3.0

Current account, % of GDP


USA Euro area China Japan Denmark Norw ay Sw eden UK Germany France Italy Spain Finland Estonia Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania India Brazil 2011 -2.9 0.3 2.8 2.0 5.9 12.8 7.3 -1.5 6.3 -2.5 -3.1 -4.0 -1.5 1.8 -5.0 5.4 -2.2 -3.7 -3.4 -2.1 2012 -2.7 1.8 2.6 1.0 6.0 14.2 6.3 -3.8 7.0 -2.1 -0.5 -1.2 -1.8 -1.8 -3.7 3.5 -1.7 -0.5 -5.1 -2.6 2013E -3.0 2.3 2.2 1.5 6.5 10.6 6.0 -4.1 7.0 -1.8 1.0 1.4 -2.0 -0.9 -2.0 3.3 -1.5 -0.5 -5.5 -3.5 2014E -3.0 2.8 1.5 1.0 5.8 12.0 5.8 -4.0 6.6 -1.5 1.2 2.6 -2.0 -1.2 -1.7 3.1 -2.2 -1.5 -5.3 -3.2 2015E -3.0 3.0 1.0 0.5 5.1 12.0 5.9 -3.5 6.3 -1.5 1.1 3.1 -1.9 -1.3 -1.8 3.0 -2.7 -2.0 -4.5 -2.7

11 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Key figures
Monetary policy rates
US Japan Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Sw itzerland Poland Russia China India Brazil 4.12.13 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.20 1.00 1.50 0.50 0.00 2.50 5.50 6.00 7.75 10.00 3M 30.06.14 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.10 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.20 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.25 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 5.25 5.25 6.00 6.00 8.00 8.00 10.25 10.25 31.12.14 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.40 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 3.00 5.00 6.50 7.50 10.25 31.12.15 1.25 0.10 0.75 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.25 0.75 3.50 4.75 6.50 7.00 10.25

Monetary policy rate spreads vs Euro area


US Japan1 Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Sw itzerland Poland Russia China India Brazil 4.12.13 0.00 -0.15 -0.05 0.75 1.25 0.25 -0.25 2.25 5.25 5.75 7.50 9.75 3M 0.00 -0.15 -0.05 0.75 1.25 0.25 -0.25 2.25 5.00 5.75 7.75 10.00 30.6.14 0.00 -0.15 -0.05 0.75 1.00 0.25 -0.25 2.25 5.00 5.75 7.75 10.00 31.12.14 0.00 -0.15 0.15 1.25 0.75 0.25 -0.25 2.75 4.75 6.25 7.25 10.00 31.12.15 0.50 -1.15 0.25 1.25 0.25 0.50 0.00 2.75 3.75 5.75 6.25 9.50

For Russia, the forecast is made for the Key Rate, as opposed to the Refi Rate in earlier publications

3-month rates
US Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania 4.12.13 0.24 0.24 0.24 1.08 1.68 0.52 2.65 6.95 0.25 0.40 3M 0.30 0.20 0.30 1.25 1.70 0.50 2.75 6.75 0.20 0.50 30.6.14 0.35 0.20 0.35 1.25 1.38 0.50 2.80 6.55 0.30 0.50 31.12.14 0.55 0.20 0.45 1.60 1.20 0.60 3.25 6.45 0.35 0.35 31.12.15 1.60 0.75 1.00 2.30 1.20 1.40 3.75 6.50 1.00 1.00

3-month spreads vs Euro area


US Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania 4.12.13 0.00 0.00 0.84 1.44 0.28 2.41 6.71 0.01 0.16 3M 0.10 0.10 1.05 1.50 0.30 2.55 6.55 0.00 0.30 30.6.14 0.15 0.15 1.05 1.18 0.30 2.60 6.35 0.10 0.30 31.12.14 0.35 0.25 1.40 1.00 0.40 3.05 6.25 0.15 0.15 31.12.15 0.85 0.25 1.55 0.45 0.65 3.00 5.75 0.25 0.25

10-year government benchmark yields


US Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Poland 4.12.13 2.78 1.73 1.77 2.32 2.80 2.82 4.54 3M 2.75 1.75 1.85 2.40 2.86 2.80 4.50 30.6.14 2.90 2.10 2.20 2.85 3.13 3.00 4.80 31.12.14 3.25 2.40 2.50 3.15 3.37 3.25 5.00 31.12.15 3.90 2.75 2.85 3.50 3.40 3.75 5.20

10-year yield spreads vs Euro area


US Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Poland 4.12.13 1.06 0.05 0.59 1.07 1.09 2.82 3M 1.00 0.10 0.65 1.11 1.05 2.75 30.6.14 0.80 0.10 0.75 1.03 0.90 2.70 31.12.14 0.85 0.10 0.75 0.97 0.85 2.60 31.12.15 1.15 0.10 0.75 0.65 1.00 2.45

Exchange rates vs EUR


EUR/USD EUR/JPY EUR/DKK EUR/SEK EUR/NOK EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/PLN EUR/RUB EUR/LVL EUR/LTL EUR/CNY EUR/INR EUR/BRL 4.12.13 1.36 139.5 7.46 8.86 8.29 0.83 1.23 4.20 45.2 0.70 3.45 8.27 84.7 3.23 3M 1.33 129.0 7.46 8.60 8.10 0.84 1.25 4.15 44.1 0.70 3.45 8.11 79.8 2.99 30.6.14 1.30 136.5 7.46 8.45 8.35 0.83 1.25 4.05 42.9 0.70 3.45 7.80 78.0 2.99 31.12.14 1.25 137.5 7.46 8.35 8.25 0.81 1.30 4.00 40.8 0.70 3.45 7.44 72.5 2.94 31.12.15 1.20 132.0 7.46 8.35 8.20 0.78 1.35 3.95 39.0 0.70 3.45 7.02 63.6 2.88

Exchange rates vs USD


4.12.13 USD/JPY USD/DKK USD/SEK USD/NOK GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/PLN USD/RUB USD/LVL USD/LTL USD/CNY USD/INR USD/BRL 102.7 5.49 6.53 6.11 1.64 0.91 3.09 33.3 0.52 2.54 6.09 62.4 2.38 3M 97.0 5.61 6.47 6.09 1.58 0.94 3.1 33.2 0.53 2.60 6.10 60.0 2.25 30.6.14 105.0 5.73 6.50 6.42 1.57 0.96 3.1 33.0 0.54 2.66 6.00 60.0 2.30 31.12.14 110.0 5.96 6.68 6.60 1.54 1.04 3.2 32.6 0.56 2.76 5.95 58.0 2.35 31.12.15 110.0 6.21 6.96 6.83 1.54 1.13 3.3 32.5 0.59 2.88 5.85 53.0 2.40

12 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Economic Research Nordea


Denmark:
Helge J. Pedersen, Global Chief Economist
helge.pedersen@nordea.com, +45 3333 3126

Sweden:
Annika Winsth, Chief Economist Sweden
annika.winsth@nordea.com, +46 8 614 8608

Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Chief Analyst


johnny.jakobsen@nordea.com, +45 3333 6178

Torbjrn Isaksson, Chief Analyst


torbjorn.isaksson@nordea.com, +46 8 614 8859

Anders Svendsen, Chief Analyst


anders.svendsen@nordea.com, +45 3333 3951

Andreas Wallstrm, Senior Analyst


andreas.wallstrom@nordea.com, +46 8 534 910 88

Holger Sandte, Chief Analyst


holger.sandte@nordea.com, +45 3333 1191

Bengt Rostrm, Senior Analyst


bengt.rostrom@nordea.com, +46 8 614 8378

Jan Strup Nielsen, Senior Analyst


jan.storup.nielsen@nordea.com, +45 3333 3171

Lena Sellgren, Senior Analyst


lena.sellgren@nordea.com, +46 8 614 88 62

Amy Yuan Zhuang, Senior Analyst


amy.yuan.zhuang@nordea.com, +45 3333 5607

Rickard Bredeby, Assistant Analyst


rickard.bredeby@nordea.com, +46 8 614 80 03

Aurelija Augulyte, Senior Analyst


aurelija.augulyte@nordea.com, +45 3333 6437

Sofie Andersson, Assistant Analyst


sofie.b.andersson@nordea.com, +46 8 614 80 03

Deanie Haugaard Jensen, Assistant Analyst


deanie.haugaard@nordea.com, +45 3333 3260

Vera Batyalova, Assistant Analyst


vera.batyalova@nordea.com, +46 8 614 80 03

Henrik Lorin Rasmussen, Assistant Analyst


henrik.l.rasmussen@nordea.com, +45 3333 4007

Daniel Freyr Gustafsson, Assistant Analyst


daniel.freyr.gustafsson@nordea.com, +45 3333 5115

Estonia:
Tnu Palm, Chief Economist Estonia
tonu.palm@nordea.com, +372 628 3345

Finland:
Aki Kangasharju, Chief Economist Finland
aki.kangasharju@nordea.com, +358 9 165 59952

Latvia:
Andris Strazds, Chief Economist Latvia
andris.strazds@nordea.com, +371 67 096 096

Pasi Sorjonen, Chief Analyst


pasi.sorjonen@nordea.com, +358 9 1655 9942

Lithuania:
Zygimantas Mauricas, Chief Economist Lithuania
zygimantas.mauricas@nordea.com, +370 5 2657 198

Norway:
Steinar Juel, Chief Economist Norway
steinar.juel@nordea.com, +47 2248 6130

Russia:
Dmitry A. Savchenko, Chief Economist Russia
dmitry.savchenko@nordea.ru, +7 495 777 34 77 4194

Erik Bruce, Chief Analyst


erik.bruce@nordea.com, +47 2248 4449

Dmitry S. Fedenkov, Head of Research, Russia


dmitry.fedenkov@nordea.ru, +7 495 777 34 77 3368

Thina M. Saltvedt, Chief Analyst


thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com, +47 2248 7993

Katrine Godding Boye, Senior Analyst


katrine.godding.boye@nordea.com, +47 2248 7977

Poland:
Piotr Bujak, Chief Economist Poland
piotr.bujak@nordea.com, +48 22 521 36 51

Bjrnar Tonhaugen, Senior Analyst


bjornar.tonhaugen@nordea.com, +47 2248 7959

13 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets. Nordea, Markets Division Nordea Bank Norge ASA 17 Middelthuns gt. PO Box 1166 Sentrum N-0107 Oslo +47 2248 5000

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14 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS DECEMBER 2013

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