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Republic of Kenya

Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development

Development of a Spatial Planning Concept for Nairobi Metropolitan Region

STUDY STATUS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


February 2011

Consulting Engineering Services (India) Pvt. Ltd.


57, Nehru Place, 5th Floor, New Delhi -110 019, India In association with Runji & Partners, Consulting Engineers and Planners Ltd.
3, Kindaruma Road, P.O Box 68053, Nairobi, Kenya

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Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development, Government of Kenya

Development of a Spatial Planning Conept for Nairobi Metropolitan Region

Study Status Executive Summary


1. The study has been initiated by the Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development (MoNMD), GoK and is being carried out by M/S Consulting Engineering Services (India) Private Limited, New Delhi, in association with M/S Runji & Partners, Consulting Engineers, Nairobi 2. The study was started w.e.f 20 September 2010 3. As of date the following reports have been submitted i. Inception Report (in October, 2010) ii. Status Report I (Base Map) (in December 2010) iii. Status Report- II (Sectoral Characteristics, Transport Surveys, Stakeholders Meetings) (in December 2010) iv. Working Paper on NMR-2030: Population Forecast & Distribution, Employment, Occupation Structure and Urban Land Use Structure (in February 2011) 4. The Inception Report presents a brief overview of some of the major policies of GoK that impact planning and development of Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) lists the objectives of the study, the overall objective being to develop a sustainable land use system for NMR details the study methodology in 21 modules and presents the activity schedule and deliverables 5. The Status Report I The Status Report I describes the methodology of preparation of the Base Map of NMR on GIS platform The Survey of Kenya toposheets had been taken as a primary source of Base Map development which had been geo-referenced, vectorised and mapped for important layers in groups like Administrative Boundaries, Settlements/Built-up, Natural green Areas, Transport Network, Water Bodies, and indicative contours at 100m interval. The most important layer in terms of planning for development of a Metropolitan Region being the existing condition of built-up and settlements of the area, the same has been

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MAP.1: BASE MAP FOR NMR

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updated from the latest satellite image using the GEO-Eye data of 2010. Further developments of the road corridors like the bypasses which have come up in recent few months or under construction have been updated by traversing using the GPS. A universal projection system, the UTM with WGS-84 datum has been assigned for the geo-referenced toposheets and Satellite Images so as to derive the layers and maps which could be used for further studies and directly the GPS and other surveyed data can be overlaid. Accuracy and integrity of base map is the most important criteria for any good spatial study. SDP-NMR being the one with a large areal extent of about 32,000 sq km, the accuracy of base map becomes further more important. The features and their accuracies in the source maps and satellite images has been cross checked in the field using one of the most reliable hand held GPS, the Garmin GPS 76CSx having SWIR antenna giving a accuracy in the range of + 4m. The maps have been checked by GPS traversing and Ground Control Points with respect to the land features likes roads and major structures. It has been found that most of the land features were in the most desirable accuracy range of +10-15m for a study like SDP-NMR. The requirement for the development of concept plan for SDP-NMR is a broad scaled map in the range of 1:500,000 to 1:100,000 scales. However the accuracy achieved in this Base Map is better than that required for 1: 50,000 scale. Hence the layers derived for the base map in GIS format could be put to use for any further spatial study at a level of 1: 50,000 scale. Though the Base Map is developed in GIS format which is scale independent, i.e., could be printed and viewed at any scale, the hard copies have been printed for the SDP-NMR Status I Report at the following scales - Base Map for Nairobi Metropolitan Region (1:400,000), County Nairobi (1:100,000), County Kajiado (1:450,000), County Machakos (1:300,000) and County Kiambu (1: 200,000). The methodology of preparation of Base Map and the potentials of its use and application was presented by the GIS experts of the Study Team, to the members of the Progress Review Committee and officers of the MoNMD. 6. The Status Report II The Status Report II (SR-II) is a detailed report presenting the status and salient features of the NMR in all its dimensions physical, demographic, economic, social, transport, physical, land use, infrastructure, environment, landscape, urban design and institutional framework. The SR II: presents a detailed overview of the major policies of the GoK that impact the spatial development of NMR presents an analysis of the demographic characteristics of NMR discusses the economic profile

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presents the landuse structure of the major urban centres in the region presents a detailed analysis of the traffic and travel characteristics of the people and the features of the transport system details the social profile of the people discusses the environmental status briefly reviews the physical infrastructure system services and presents an overview of a large number of legal statues that govern physical development A SWOT analysis of the NMR has also been presented highlighting the opportunities, potentials and constraints. The report lists the extensive data/reports/maps/ etc that have been collected from secondary sources. The report stresses on the need for a National Urbanisation Policy. As part of the study extensive meetings with a large number of stakeholders of different descriptions have been carried out to elicit the stakeholders perceptions of and suggestions for the spatial development plan. The SR-II has enabled a clear understanding of the ongoing development process, the critical issues that need to be addressed, and the opportunities that need to be exploited. In the context of the revised political administrative system of counties and with four (4) counties in the NMR, an effective institutional framework for integrated and coordinated development of the NMR emerges as a critical need. 7. Working Paper A Working Paper on Population forecast and Distribution, Employment, Occupation Structure and Urban Land use structure has been submitted (February 2011). The policy assumptions and the forecasts form the base for detailing the Spatial Development Plan. The population of NMR is growing rapidly. The forecast of population by 2030, under three (3) scenarios of Business As usual, Vision Based and unabated Development has been made. The range is 13.2 million to 20.1 million.

FIG.1: POPULATION PROJECTION BY THREE METHODS FOR NMR IN 2020 AND 2030

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The forecast, of 15.1 million, under Vision Based scenario has been selected for further detailing.

FIG.2: POPULATION FOR NMR IN 2009 AND 2030

Presently there is an inequitable distribution of people by the component sub-regions (4 counties). Nairobi city accounts for almost half of the region population (2009) and Northern Metro Region (Kiambu County) for half of the balance population. Some of the urban centres are experiencing runaway growth rates. There is a need for a more balanced growth and distribution.

FIG. 3: PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION WITHIN NMR AND ONMR

It is proposed to contain the population size of Nairobi City to be 5.21 million (2030). It is proposed to decelerate the growth rate of urban centres in Northern Metro Region and accelerate the growth rate of urban centres in Eastern Metro Region. Even with this policy distribution, Northern Metro will account for a large share of the population (4.99 million). However the other two (2) sub-regions will have large size of 2.97 million in Eastern and 1.96 million in Southern Metro Regions.
FIG. 4: PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE IN NAIROBI

In the revised urbanisation pattern, apart from Nairobi city, there will be 3 more near metropolitan cities (Ruiru, Kikuyu and Kangundo-Tala). Six (6) New Towns, 2 in each of the three sub-regions (other than Nairobi), of about 100,000 population each, have been proposed. The overall forecast of population in NMR, by component spatial units is presented in Table 1.

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Table 1: NMR 2030: Population Forecast Sr. No. Spatial Units 1 2 3 4 a b 5a NMR Core Nairobi Total Urban within NMR ONMR Total Urban within NMR (without Nairobi) Rural Northern Metro Urban Rural Eastern Metro Urban Rural Southern Metro Urban Rural Northern Metro Ruiru Thika Limuru Kiambu Juja Kikuyu Karuri
Sum (i-vii)

2009
6,658,000 3,138,369 4,887,664

2030 15,135,881 5,212,500

12,999,992
9,923,381

3,519,631 1,749,295 1,770,336 1,786,879


976,295 810,584 1,045,440 507,978 537,462

7,787,492 2,135,889 4,990,641 4,180,712 809,929 2,969,576 2,376,526 593,050 1,963,164 1,230,255 732,910

5b

5c

687,312
265,022 422,290

5a i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii.

238,858 139,853 104,282 88,869 40,446 234,053 129,934


976,295

973,911 570,232 425,196 362,351 164,913 954,320 529,788


3,980,712

2 New Towns (with 100,000 in each) Total Urban 5b i. ii. iii. Eastern Metro Machakos Mavoko Kangundo/Tala
Sum (i-iii)

200,000 976,295
4,180,712

150,041 139,380 218,557


507,978

642,879 597,199 936,448


2,176,526

2 New Towns (with 100,000 in each) Total Urban 5c i. Southern Metro Ngong

200,000 507,978
2,376,526

107,188

412,641

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Sr. No. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii.

Spatial Units Kitengela Ongata Rongai Kiserian Namanga Isinya Bissil Kajiado
Sum (k-r)

2009 58,167 40,178 18,096 9,066 8,670 5,376 18,281


265,022

2030

223,925 154,673 69,664 34,901 33,377 20,696 70,376


1,020,255

2 New Towns (with 100,000 in each) Magadi


Total Urban Source: Projection by the Consultant

200,000
10,000

265,022

1,230,255

With the expectation of growth of Kenyas GDP at 10% as envisaged in Kenya Vision 2030, NMR GDP would need to grow at about 15%. The per capita income would more than double. The economy is expected to become more formal. While agriculture will be the main occupation in the rural areas, manufacturing, transportation, construction and service sectors would be the major sectors contributing to the urban, and in general to the overall, economy of the region. The large increase in employment size presents an opportunity to promote balanced spatial and inclusive development of NMR. However it calls for comprehensive, coordinated and continuous planning and development process. NMR is a highly urbanised region and will continue to be more urbanised in the decades to come. The urban share will be about 87%. The 18 urban centres (excluding Nairobi city) will grow at high rates and will increase their population size manifold. Care needs to be exercised in consuming land for urban use. Optimal densities, based on city size, have been recommended. About 173 sq. km of land would be under urban developed land which is about 5.4% of NMR area. The occupational structure of each of the urban centres have been proposed based on their functional character. The land use structure of each of the urban centre has been proposed, again with reference to their envisaged function. It is important that each of the urban local authority is encouraged and facilitated to prepare comprehensive Master Plans, Zoning plans and Local Area Plans for their town to promote and guide integrated and balanced spatial, economic, social and infrastructure development to attain the status of world class region. 8. The Executive Summary of each of the above reports are enclosed for more detailed reference.

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Occupational Structure and Land Use Distribution, 2030 1. Nairobi

2. Ruiru

3. Thika

4. Limuru

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5. Kiambu

6. Juja

7. Kikuyu

8. Karuri
Occupational Structure in 2030
A gril. 23% S erv. 51% Manf. Trans p. 14% C ons t. 7% 5%

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9.

Machakos

10. Movoko

11. Kangundo/Tala

12. Ngong

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13. Kitengela

14. Ongata Rongai


Occupational Structure in 2030
Agril. 10% S erv. 68% Manf. 10% Trans p. 6% C ons t. 6%

15. Kiserian

16. Namanga
Occupational Structure in 2030
A gril. 11% Manf. 3% Trans p. 7% C ons t. 6%

S erv. 73%

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17. Isinya

18. Bissil
Occupational Structure in 2030
A gril. 12%

S erv. 72%

Manf. 4% Trans p. 6% C ons t. 6%

19. Kajiado

20. Aerotropolis (near Thika)

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21. Ruaka New Town


Land Use Distribution, 2030

22. New Town (near Aeroptroplis)

23. New Town (Along Eastern by-pass)

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24. Ambosilli New Town

25. Kajiado Transport Hub

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Inception Report

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Study on

Concept Spatial Development Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region

Inception Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. The Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development, GoK, has initiated the study on preparation of a Concept Spatial Development Plan (SDP) for the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR). The study has been assigned to M/S Consulting Engineering Services (I) Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi in association with M/S Runji and Partners, Nairobi. The study has been initiated w.e.f. from 20th September 2010. 2. NMR, the study area, extends over 32,000 sqkm and includes the jurisdiction of the 15 local authorities comprising City Council of Nairobi, Municipal Councils of Kiambu, Limuru, Machakos, Mavoko, Ruiru and Thika, Town Council of Kajiado, Karuri, Kikuyu and Tala / Kangundo and County Councils of Kiambu, Masaku, Olkejuado and Thika. According to the new administrative units of governance, NMR comprises 4 counties of Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado. As of 2009, NMR contained a population size of 6.71 million, of which Nairobi city accounted for 3.14 million. 3. A brief reconnaissance survey of the region has been made to appreciate the physical and other characteristics of the region. The terrain slopes from north-west to south-southeast. The region has a number of large and dense forests, national parks and open areas. A number of rivers drain the region and are a source of water supply. Nairobi is the main city with concentration of people and activities. Some of the regional towns, though presently grown as dormitory towns, have potential for concerted development to absorb more population and activities and thrive as important, functional, regional centers. The traffic within, to and from Nairobi is intense leading to congestion and delays. Traffic within the regional towns is low and is primarily by walk and IPT modes. Traffic between Nairobi and the regional towns is intense. Direct interactions amongst regional town are constrained due to poor connectivity. 4. The proposed study methodology is comprehensive. It is structured into interlinked modules. They are: Module 1: Base Map

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Module 2: World Class City Module 3: Demography and Settlement Pattern Module 4: Economic Structure and Prospects Module 5: Strength Weakness Opportunity and Threats (SWOT) Analysis Module 6: Social Dimension Module 7: Environment Dimension Module 8: Social Infrastructure Module 9: Housing and Slums in NMR Module 10: Tourism Module 11: Transport Module 12: Land Use and Development Study Module 13: Physical Infrastructure Module 14: New Towns Planning and Development Module 15: Structure Plans for Urban Areas Module 16: Urban Design Module 17: Regional Landscpe Module 18: Governance, Institutions and Legal Support in NMR Module 19: Resource Mobilisation Module 20: Concept Spatial Development Plan Module 21: Technology Transfer Mechanism The methodology also includes extensive meetings, discussions and interactions with the stakeholders. 5. The study period is 16 weeks, w.e.f. the date of initiation of the study. An Activity Schedule of the study has been prepared. The deliverables include: Inception Report, Stage I Report, Stage II Report, Draft Final Report and Final Report. 6. This Inception report is submitted as the first of the deliverables. The report comprises 7 chapters detailing various aspects of study methodology.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Status Report I (Base Map)

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Study on

Concept Spatial Development Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region

Status Report 1 (Base Map)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Base Map is a fundamental requirement for planning any developmental activity and further designing and detailing as it depicts fundamental information about the Earth's surface such as landforms and drainage and existing infrastructure and other developmental changes brought about by human activities. The preparation of Spatial Development Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region has been taken up as an initiative to meet with the vision under Nairobi Metro Vision 2030. Building a Spatial Plan required a Base Map derived from accurate sources like topographic sheets from Survey of Kenya and further updated with respect to the latest ground realities. The latest satellite images of 2010 have been used for this purpose. The Survey of Kenya toposheets, taken as a primary source for Base Map development, have been geo-referenced, vectorised and mapped for important layers in groups like Administrative Boundaries, Settlements/Built-up, Natural green Areas, Transport Network, Water Bodies, and indicative contours at 100m interval. The most important layer in terms of planning for development of a metropolitan region being the existing situation of built-up and settlements in the area, the same has been updated from the latest satellite image using the GEO-Eye data of 2010. Further, developments of the road corridors like the bypasses which have come up in last few months or are under construction have been updated by traversing using the GPS. A universal projection system, the UTM with WGS-84 datum has been assigned for the geo-referenced toposheets and satellite images so as to derive the layers and maps which could be used for further studies and also the GPS and other surveyed data could be overlaid directly. Accuracy and integrity of Base Map is an essential criterion for any good spatial study. SDP-NMR being the one with a large areal extent of about 32,000 sq km, the accuracy of Base Map becomes further more important. The features and their accuracies in the source maps and satellite images has been cross checked in the field using one of the most reliable hand held GPS, the Garmin GPS 76CSx having SWIR antenna giving a accuracy in the range of + 4m. The maps have been checked by GPS traversing and Ground Control Points with respect to the land features such as roads and major structures. It has been found that most of the land features are in the most desirable accuracy range of +10-15m for a study like SDP-NMR. The requirement for the development of concept plan for SDP-NMR is a broad scaled map in the range of 1: 500,000 to 1: 100,000 scales. However the accuracy achieved in this Base Map is better

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than that required for a 1: 50,000 scale map. Hence the layers derived for the Base Map in GIS format could be put to use for any further spatial study at a level of 1: 50,000 scale. Though the Base Map is developed in GIS format which is scale independent, i.e., could be printed and viewed at any scale, the hard copies have been printed for the SDP-NMR Status I report at the following scales - Base Map for Nairobi Metropolitan Region(1:400,000), County Nairobi (1:100,000), County Kajiado(1:450,000), County Machakos (1:300,000 ) and County Kiambu (1: 200,000 ). The Base Map layers derived will be further used for development of Land use maps and other thematic maps for the current study.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Status Report- II (Sectoral Characteristics, Transport Surveys, Stakeholders Meetings)

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Study on

Development of Spatial Planning Concept for Nairobi Metropolitan Region

Status Report 2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. The Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development, GoK, has initiated the study on preparation of a Concept Spatial Development Plan (SDP) for the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR). The study has been assigned to M/S Consulting Engineering Services (I) Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi in association with M/S Runji and Partners, Nairobi. The study has been initiated w.e.f. from 20th September 2010. 2. As part of the study two deliverables i.e Inception Report and Status 1 Report detailing the basemap of NMR on GIS platform and 2 progress reports have already been submitted. 3. The Status 2 Report is submitted as the third deliverable. The Status Report 2 forms the base for formulating policies, selecting strategies and listing programmes for the preparation of the Concept Spatial Development Plan for the NMR. It comprises 21 chapters and presents all the dimensions of the region such as physical planning, roads, transportation, regional economics, physical infrastructure (water, sewerage, drainage, solid waste management, power and telecommunication), social profile, environment, landscape, urban design, and visual profile. 4. The study area extends over 32,000 sq km and comprises the jurisdiction of Nairobi City Council and 14 other local authorities. Under the new geo-political system of the country, the study area includes jurisdiction of 4 counties comprising Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado. The study area contained a population size of 6.65 million in 2009 (Ch. 1.0). 5. The spatial structure of NMR (Ch. 2.0) is influenced by various factors such as strategic location, physical features, urban-rural interface, structure of land tenure, transport structure, settlement structure, histroical prespective and land use structure. The approach emphasizes the interrelation and integration of different aspects and actions to create a good NMR conceptual spatial plan, based on three key concepts: NMR space as a field of activity, NMR space is structured for sustainable coexistence and the spatial quality is best suitable for different activities within NMR space. There is no national land use framework in Kenya although plans are under way to

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develop a framework by the Director of Physical Planning and the stakeholders. One major weakness of the regional plans so far prepared in the country, is the failure to incorporate road network as basis of development framework The biggest challenge for planning at the local level is the lack of capacity for the local authorities to cope with the development challenges. 6. The preparation of the conceptual Spatial Plan for NMR is a muti-disciplinary excercise. The study is based mainly on secondary information from various sources. The different types of sectoral data (Ch. 3.0) such as physical planning, demography, roads, transportation, regional economics, physical infrastructure (water, sewerage, drainage, solid waste management, power and telecommunication), social profile, environment, landscape, urban design have been collected and collated. The secondary data collection is also supported by inputs and interactions with the Client and other stakeholders. Besides that, secondary data collection is supplemented by primary data collection through: transport survey, stakeholders survey, updating base map by ground verification through GPS data 7. An overview of the relevant policies listed below (Ch. 4.0) made to appreciate their impact on the preparation of conceptual plan for NMR within the framework of New Constitution of Kenya Kenya Vision 2030 Nairobi Metro, 2030: A World Class Metropolis Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Nairobi Metropolitan Growth Strategy Land Policy in Kenya: A National Land Use Policy Housing Policy National Transport Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Medium Term Plan (MTP) for 2008-12 Energy Regulatory Commission Kenya Integrated Assessment of the Energy Policy Feed in Tariff Policy on Wind, Biomass and Small Hydro Resource Generated Electricity

8. The physiography of NMR (Ch. 5.0) which extends from the eastern edge of the Rift Valley where the elevation is 2,300m above sea level and gradually slopes down towards the east and the south to an altitude of 1,400m above mean sea level. The terrain of the region gradually changes from low-lying plains in the south to the Kenyan highlands in the north. The biggest feature of Kenya, the Great Rift Valley forms the western edge of NMR. Kenya can be divided into six major natural geographical regions. NMR is part of

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the foreland plateau and highlands-comprising Eastern and Western. The rocks in the Nairobi area mainly comprise a succession of lavas and Pyroclastics of the Cainozoic age and overlying the foundation of folded Precambrian schists and gneisses of the Mozambique belt. Drainage of NMR is primarily into the basin of the Athi River and its tributaries. NMR has numerous areas which need to be conserved. These include national parks, forest areas, and city parks. 9. The total population of the NMR was 2.2 million in 1979 which increased to 6.7 million in 1989 registering a growth ratio of 3.78%. The population of core Nairobi is 3.1 million (2000) which accounts for 64% of the total population of the NMR. There is a tendency of concentration of the population in the NMR especially around Nairobi. The female population is more than male population in NMR, however, in Nairobi there are more males than females. The density has changed from 68 persons per sq. km in 1979 to 207 persons per sq. km. in 2009. Moreover, the density in Nairobi (4509.15 persons per sq. Km) has increased at a rapid pace resulting in congestion (Ch 6.0).
The youthful structure of the population is a great advantage for the socio-economic development. It also causes high dependency ratios and is responsible for high unemployment rates and demands for education, housing, health, transport and other social amenities. The population pyramid of Nairobi does not reflect a normal structure. Between the age group of 6 and 19 years, both sexes decline in numbers but pick up rapidly between the age group of 20 and 29 years. From then on the pyramid exhibits a normal trend, with a gradual decrease of numbers with age but more rapidly for females than males. Illiteracy rates in Nairobi for the 15 54 years age group are 7.8 per cent for women and 5.8 per cent for men. Illiteracy levels are 21 per cent for women and 12 per cent for males.

The rate of increase in urban population is high with 73% of the population of NMR in urban areas. The pattern of urbanization in the country is highly skewed with the Nairobi area dominating and large regions of the country left with low urbanization.
10. Kenya has pursued a mixed economy since 1963 (Ch. 7.0). However, there has been a shift in emphasis from public investment to private sector led growth. Market based reforms have been introduced since 1993 and more incentives for both local and foreign private investment provided.

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According to the Kenya Economic Update Kenyas economy is recovering steadily and is forecast to grow at 4.0 % in 2010. For 2011, the World Bank forecasts growth at 5.3 %. Driven by strong public investments and improved business confidence the economic indicators point to a full recovery and possibly take off in the medium term. Under the high case scenario the economy could achieve a growth of 6.0 % in 2011 and maintain that level in 2012. Vision 2030 envisages a sustained average growth of 10 per cent per annum over the next two decades implying that the size of the economy should double every 7 years. NMR plays an important role in Kenyas economy. NMR economy will have to be stimulated to grow by 15% a year on an average by 2030 in order to realize this 10 per cent per annum national growth rate. The per capita income of NMR has to also grow by about 10% a year on an average in order to attain this growth rate of 15%. An analysis of sources of recent growth reveals that growth has largely been driven by private consumption and investment. To sustain such a growth within a stable macro-economic environment, aggregate expenditure should not outpace the production capacity of the economy. In this regard, it will be important to focus on removing supply-side constraints while maintaining a prudent monetary and fiscal policy. Improvements in productivity and competitiveness are critical in supporting this. In 2009 agriculture, including forestry and fishing, accounted for about 10 percent of GRDP of NMR, as well as for 20 percent of wage employment and 50 percent of revenue from exports. The manufacturing sector growth rose by 10 per cent. The sector is important in terms of its contribution to total output, export earnings and in its employment creation capability. NMRs services sector, contributed about 68 percent to GDP in 2009.
Nairobi had employment accounting for 35 per cent of the total wage employment in Kenya in 2009. Nairobi City had urban informal sector employment which accounts for 65 percent. This corresponds to 25 percent of the total informal sector employment in Kenya in 2009. Nairobi is dominant in employment generation in Kenya for both the informal and the formal sectors. NMR faces five key employment challenges, namely: high youth unemployment; rapidly growing labour force; underemployment; the problem of the working poor; and gender inequality in employment.

The population living below the poverty line is estimated to have increased to 1.6 million in 2009.The incidence of poverty is higher in rural areas at 49 per cent compared with 34 per cent in urban areas. The micro and small enterprises (MSEs) sector contributes about 19 per cent of GRDP of Nairobi. Further, the sector accounts for 90per cent of all the new jobs

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created and it employs 80 per cent of the total number of employees in the NMR. The Economic Recovery Strategy (ERS) identifies the private sector in NMR as the engine of growth. NMR faces major developmental challenges that include: a high unemployment rate, a targeted approach to bring millions of families above the poverty line, high inequality in income, considerable disparities in development among the different regions, low investment rates, influx of counterfeits goods, insecurity, weak governance, poor physical infrastructure, heavy reliance on agriculture and export of primary products. The mission for NMR economy are: building an internationally competitive and inclusive economy for prosperity, building regional and global financial and other services/hubs, building a regional trade and business service centre, eradicate poverty, create the resources its people will need, creating a just and inclusive systems that addresses the concerns of the weak and the vulnerable. The challenges for achieving higher economic growth in NMR are many. However; it possesses huge potentials in all the sectors of the economy such as agricultural sector diversification and marketing, industrial growth and upgradation, modernization of service industry. The diversification and modernization of the economy further depends upon a host of factors such as removing the infrastructure bottlenecks, development of ICT, establishments of modern educational systems, diversification and modernization of tourism industry along with establishment of eco-park, strengthening of the trade, commerce and business activities, looking after environmental sustainability, boosting up the consumer mechanism and thrift, removing political volatility and incidence of insecurity, creation of employment opportunities, making planning mechanism successful via implementation of inclusive planning oriented towards programme of poverty eradication. 11. The Nairobi City lacks a clear planning strategy has led to unplanned, haphazard pattern of development, leading to overconcentration of employment in the CBD and industrial area, resulting in traffic congestion and environmental pollution, and rapid growth of informal settlements (Ch. 8.0). The main problems faced by NMR are providing shelter, basic urban services and transportation infrastructure, improving its financial and institutional structure and management, and formulating environmental policies and programmes. The main issues which need immediate attention are: the interaction between the different administrative units of the metropolis at the primary stage; the growth in urban population concentrations and dependence upon employment availability and informal settlements, and high incidence of urban poverty. 12. Land use is an integral component in any planning process (Ch. 9.0). It helps in

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estimating and analysing the quantum of land put to various uses and also the quantum of land which can be utilized for future development. Landuse structures of the following urban centres have been studied Nairobi, Thika, Ruiru, Limuru, Kikuyu, Machakos, Athi River Town, Kajiado, and Kitengela. Land use structure of the various urban centres of NMR, show that each town has some portion of land under agricultural use which if required can be utilised for further development of the towns. Another striking feature revealed in the land use distribution is the fact that apart from Machakos, all other towns have very less recreational spaces. Green spaces are very essential for both the health of the town and the people. 13. Transport is an important component of a spatial development plan. Transport impacts in a profound way the spatial structure of a city and its region. It determines the directions of growth. Transport effects the economic viability and social mobility of the region and its people. Transport consumes a large share of the resources (land, capital, time environment, etc.) Appreciation of the transport system of the region and the traffic and travel characteristics of the people is important.(Ch. 10.0) Kenyas transport system comprises Road Network (159600 km), Rail Network (2597 km), Airways (3 international and 17 commercial airports) a major port and pipeline (900 km), Road system is the most important as it caters more than 85% of travel demand in the country. In NMR, the road system is the most predominant. The road network is of radial pattern with Nairobi City as the focus. Orbital roads are missing. This has led to concentration of activities within and intense traffic to and from the city. 9 radial road corridors traverse Nairobi City and extend into the region and beyond. Of them Nairobi-Thika Road (A-2), Nairobi-Eldiret-Uganda) (A-104) and Nairobi-Mombasa (A109) are important international trunk roads carrying large volume of traffic. The major concentration of people and activities are along these road corridors. Nairobi city contains nearly 67% of the motor vehicles in Kenya. Nairobi generates a large number of trips. Of them nearly 47% are by walk. Of the motorised trips, public mass transport, comprising Matatus and buses, account for about 70% of the share and nearly 4 million passengers per day. Nairobi City screen line survey analysis shows following observations A Maximum of 36858 vehicles was observed to be coming out of the Nairobi CBD on to Uhuru highway from Haile Selassie Avenue

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The lowest volume of traffic entering on the Uhuru Highway from the CBD area was 12561 vehicles on Lusaka Road Mbagathi Way had a high proportion of cars (84% in the total traffic) Haile Selassie Avenue had the lowest percentage of cars (21.85%) Matatus constituted 55% of total traffic on Haile Selassie Avenue Kenyatta Avenue had the lowest percentage of Matatu (1.2%) About 15% of traffic on Lusaka Road which passes through the industrial area consisted of LCVs Traffic analysis indicates that passenger vehicles predominate on city roads while goods traffic does not exceed 20% of the total traffic.

The traffic characteristics of the regional towns indicate a high intensity of walk trips, long trip lengths by vehicles, high share of work trips and high dependence on public transport modes, primarily the matatus. A number of road development programs are under implementation. At the regional level upgrading of Nairobi-Thika road is a major one with financial assistance from African Development Bank and the Government of China. Within Nairobi city southern and northern bypasses are under construction. Plans are under preparation for improvement of Ngong Road, an important radial corridor. The role of railways in enabling regional commuter movement is very limited. However plans are on hand to upgrade the commuter rail system. A recent feasibility study has identified a number of corridors, in the city and the region, for development of high technology public mass transport systems comprising Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS) and Light Rail Transit Systems (LRTS). The study has also proposed the development of an extensive regional road network system with emphasis on orbital roads. Institutional framework for the planning, development, operation and management of the transport system is highly diffused with a number of ministries, parastatals and private agencies involved. A coherent urban transport policy and an effective institutional framework are urgent needs for the development of an integrated transport system of NMR on a comprehensive, continuous and coordinated manner

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14. Kenya has the study on the National Water Master Plan Geographical spread of NMR occupies parts of 3 drainage basins - Tana River, Athi River and Rift Valley Basin (Ch. 11.0). Only about 5% of Tana River Basin is within about 10% area of NMR. About 70% areas of NMR is served by Athi River Basin and hence is the vital element to support life in NMR. Water supply and Sanitation sector interventions within NMR are managed by two boards namely Athi Water Services Board and Tanathi Water Services Board. The institutional framework for water distribution is well organised with a number of parastatal and private service providers. Organised sewerage and sanitation facilities are available only in selected urban centres within NMR. Predominant dependence is on Pit Latrines followed by Septic Tanks. Open defecation by Children is also practiced. Available system provisions are also malfunctioning primarily due to lack of operational and maintenance support. Due to naturally undulating terrain with a large network of natural streams form an excellent combination, which assist drainage evacuation immensely. In some areas combined sewers also are in place to provide relief. No organized system of drainage also is known to be in place. Physical component of the waste is very important in the selection of the operation of equipment and facilities disposal strategy and disposal process. The waste has grown by around 50% since 2006. In 2006, the Quantity of waste received by Dandora site in Nairobi was 397.3 and in year 2009 quantity received rose to 608.9 ton/day. The KenGen is a licensed public electricity generator that is 70% owned by the Government and 30% by the private shareholders. The company accounts for about 60% of the installed capacity from various power generation sources that include hydropower, thermal, geothermal and wind. Currently Nairobi city region is supplied by three main supply points, Dandora 220/132 KV - 400 MVA, Embarki 220/66 kV - 180 MVA and Nairobi North 220/66 kV 180 MVA, a combined total of 760 MVA against a peak demand of 570 MVA. From these supply points power is transmitted to the city by 132 KV and 66 KV subtransmission systems. At present Kenya and NMR are having total installed distribution transformer capacity 2415 MVA and 1694 MVA respectively. The Power Purchase Agreements for Hydro, Thermal and Geothermal are based on Capacity and Energy, signed with KPLC. Energy Regulatory Commission of Kenya has set out the schedule of tariff, 2008 prescribing the tariffs, charges, prices and rates to be charged by the Kenya power and Lighting Co. Ltd. to the consumers for electrical energy consumed by them under Section 45 of the Energy Act 2006.

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The geography of NMR poses a challenge to the development of telecommunication network. There are certain areas that are lacking in infrastructure facility and telecommunication network. Quality of physical infrastructure and services is important in enabling Nairobi to attain world class city status.

15. Like any other metropolis, there are a lot of apartments and big bungalow type housing in Nairobi and low rise residential development in other parts of the region. Even there are a lot of slum in the heart of the city of Nairobi.
Nairobi and NMR have a very low household size of 3.2 and 3.4 as compared to the countrys average household size of 4.4. Social amenities in NMR are also not evenly distributed over the region with Nairobi forming the Hub of both educational and health facilities and in other parts of the region one would have to travel a distance of 5km to 30km to avail these facilities. 16. The Environment Status in NMR consisting of geological features, drainage, hydrology, climate, rainfall, temperature, drought and flood pattern (Ch. 13.0). The Government of Kenya has established numerous goals and specific objectives that relate to environmental policies and legislations. There is a need for an integrated approach for environment planning in NMR. Environmental issues of the region have to be identified and integrated in the development of the region. This will not only initiate a healthy ecosystem but also achive the envisaged vision for NMR. NMR has widespread forest lands, hills, national parks, numerous water bodies and other green/open areas. The environment baseline consists of geological features, drainage, hydrology, climate, rainfall, temperature, drought and flood pattern. Due to increase in urbanization, particularly Nairobi city and surroundings, there is more requirement of housing and other economic development that can provide more employment in the region. Often these eco-sensetive areas are effected due to various pollution or encroached disturbing the ecology. They are potential resources of the region that need to be conserved to promote eco-tourism and boost the regional economy. 17. The most prominent issues with urban environment in NMR for regional landscape (Ch. 14.0) is to transform the urban place in such a way that a positive place branding can be achieved. Presently important planning concerns are the following which may be mitigated with effective urban planning policiesPrincipally daylight economy High level of crime and insecurity Encroachment of conservation areas and river flood plains Negative environmental impacts due to urban growth

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18. The built form determines the urban aesthetics and the brand image of the city and its region. Urban design aspects have been studied (Ch. 15.0) and investigated to understand three main approaches such as: Imagability of the city - the visual intelligibility which is shared by all inhabitants through their mental perception Quality to the urbanity of spaces, the unforced liveliness that creates sense of safety and belonging Effect of the geometric characteristics of physical elements of the urban fabric building facades and street furniture

19. Effective institutional arrangement is important in the formulation, implementation and coordination of the Spatial Development Plan for NMR (Ch. 16.0). A number of organizations get established over a period of time with specific objectives, functions and procedures. However, over the time development aspects and needs make the organizations inadequate, in effective and uncoordinated. Institutional reforms and restructuring become important and critical for implementation of plans and achievements of envisaged vision.

The Government of the Republic of Kenya has put in place laws and regulations that govern physical planning and development in the country. A well planned physical development is critical for social-economic growth. A review of the existing Acts listed belowhas been carried out to appreciate the legal framework for the planning and implementation of the Spatial Development Plan. The Physical Planning Act Cap 286 Local Government Act Chapter 265 The Local Government Act Cap 405 The Land Planning Act Chapter 303 The Registered Land Act Chapter 300 The Land Control Act Cap 302 The Land Acquisition Act Cap 295 Housing Act Chapter 117 The Water Act, 2002 Wildlife (Conservation and Management) Act Cap 376 The Forests Act, 2005 The Environment Management and Co-ordination Act 1999 The Kenya Roads Board Act 1999 Cap 408 The Kenya Roads Act 2007 Kenya Railways Corporation Act (CAP 397) The Kenya Airports Authority Act, Cap 395 The Civil Aviation Act, Cap 394 The State Corporations Act, Chapter 446 Constituency Development Fund Act No. 11 of 2004

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The Physical Planning Act Cap 286 and the Local Government Act 265 plays a vital role in Spatial Development Plan of NMR. The Act vests responsibilities of the preparation of all spatial development plans, policies, guidelines and in research, advising the Commissioner of Lands and local authorities on the most appropriate use of land and requirement of proper execution of projects Planning activities are carried out by different government agencies in NMR. They work independently of each other and their outputs may not integrate both spatial and non spatial aspects of development. Hence for the comprehesive, coordinated and continuous planning, development, operation and management of NMR, goverance/institutional refroms and restructuring is critical.
All the above-mentioned plans have been prepared at the national level. However; in order to make it applicable at the regional and local level there is a need to develop a conceptual frame, promote intense debate, arrive at consensus, pass enabling statutes including relevant amendments to existing ones, constitute new organizations, redistribute functions, powers and responsibilities amongst the many actors and stakeholders at all levels of governance and, most important, nurture the new organizations with care and dedication to enable them to grow, mature and discharge their functions and responsibilities in an effective and sustained manner. 20. The existing resource mobilization patterns in NMR are important to analyze before switching over to any improvement and suggestions (Ch. 17.0) . Presently there are three important sources for mobilization of resource in NMR such as mobilization of fund by Government, financing by development partners, and resource mobilization through external source. The Government sources includes: revenue collection through tax administration, domestic financing through net lending to public institutions, public debt, deficit financing, fiscal decentralization, and mobilization of resources by city council & local authorities. Financing by development partners includes private sector financing, public private partnerships. The external source of borrowing includes borrowing funds from major financial institutions.
21. An understanding of the stakeholders needs, perception and suggestions is impotrant. The discussions and the response of the stakeholders with varied background, interest and perception has been invaluable in the appreciation of the stakeholders needs, perceptions and suggestions. The preliminary stakeholders analysis would include the following aspects: concept of SDP for NMR; ideas about world class cities; land; growth directions; and NMR after 20 years. They will form the basis and act as valuable guidelines in the formulation of the Concept Spatial Development Plan of NMR (Ch. 18.0).

22. A SWOT Analysis of different sectors of NMR such as population, economy, environment, land, transport including an area-wise SWOT analysis has been detailed out, which includes Nairobi, Thika, Kiambu, Kajiado and Machakos. This is followed by an overall SWOT Analysis for NMR. Emphasis need to be given to overcome the weakness and threats through judicious exploitation of strengths and

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potentials within Nairobi Metropolitan Region (Ch. 19.0) 23. Kenya is experiencing rapid urbanization. Presently there is no comprehensive National Urbanization Policy guiding, facilitating and promoting a balanced urbanization pattern. There are a number of sub-sectoral policies like Housing Policy, Transport Policy, Land Policy, Infrastructure Policy which are uni-functional in nature. The pattern of urbanization in the country is highly skewed with the Nairobi area dominating and large regions of the country left with low urbanization. There is an urgent need for a National Urbanization Policy which has many dimensions. It needs to be supported and enabled by a number of sectoral policies including population, land, housing, transport, physical services, social services, monetary, fiscal, legal and institutional (Ch. 20.0). 24. A visual perception of NMR is presented through photographs (Ch. 21.0). The visual walk-through starts with Nairobi and then travel to the neighbouring towns of the region.The visual presentation establishes the inherent beauty of the city that needs to be conserved and enhanced through a conceptual spatial planning and development to achieve the status of a World class city/ region.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Working Paper on NMR 2030: Population Forecast & Distribution, Employment, Occupation Structure and Urban Land Use Structure

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Study on

Concept Spatial Development Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region

Working Paper

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
People concentrate in urban areas/regions to benefit from the variety of opportunities the urban areas offer. People and activities need space and services. The productivity and competitiveness of, and the quality of life in, an urban area depends on the harmonious balance between demand and supply of various needs. The Spatial Development Plan (SDP) of an urban area/region is an expression of this balance. The Working Paper, on an appreciation of the present population, employment and land use characteristics and their trends in the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) and its component units, presents the forecasts the population in the NMR under different scenarios of development. The forecast of 15.14 million, by 2030, under Vision Scenario, has been selected for detailing the SDP. The distribution of the forecast population in the different spatial units has been made. As a development policy, it is proposed to contain the population of Nairobi city, by 2030, to be 5.25 million.

Kenya Vision 2030 envisages a sustained growth of GDP at 10% upto 2030. The GDP of NMR has to grow at a higher rate of 15%, in the initial decades. Presently the people in the age group 15-64 are considered as the labour force. However, with socio-economic development, the labour force size will reduce. Based on revised WPR of NMR and the component spatial units, the employment size in NMR as a total, in the sub-regions and in urban centres have been forecast. The WPR of urban areas, by 2030, is proposed to be 35% and of rural areas to be 40%. The employment size in NMR, by 2030, is estimated to be 5.4 million, an almost threefold increase from the present. The occupation structures of the urban areas have been proposed based on their envisaged functions.

Presently the economy of NMR is highly informal, the ratio of formal to informal employment being 1:3.96 in NMR and 1:3.98 in Nairobi. With development, it is envisaged that there will be formalization of the economy, an objective of Nairobi Metro Vision 2030. It is assumed that the ratios will normalize to 1:2 in NMR and 1:1 in Nairobi City.

Land is a critical need for the planning and development of urban areas. Policy towards adoption of city level gross densities is important to estimate land area required. Optimum city level densities, based on city size (population), have been conceptualized. Based on the function, the land use structures of the different urban centres have been proposed.