NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

THE SURPRISINGLY DIRE SITUATION OF CHILDREN'S EDUCATION

IN RURAL WEST AFRICA:
RESULTS FROM THE CREO STUDY IN GUINEA-BISSAU
Peter Boone
Ila Fazzio
Kameshwari Jandhyala
Chitra Jayanty
Gangadhar Jayanty
Simon Johnson
Vimala Ramachandrin
Filipa Silva
Zhaoguo Zhan
Working Paper 18971
http://www.nber.org/papers/w18971
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
April 2013
(COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW OF EDUCATION OUTCOMES)
We are grateful to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, MA, USA, and
Effective Intervention, a UK charity, for financial support. Pratham, an Indian charity, kindly provided
assistance with test design. Participants at the NBER "African Successes" conference in Accra, Ghana,
and the "CREO Study Report Conference" in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, provided helpful comments.
Alex Eble advised on early study design. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do
not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Corresponding author:
Ila Fazzio.
At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research.
Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w18971.ack
NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-
reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official
NBER publications.
2013 by Peter Boone, Ila Fazzio, Kameshwari Jandhyala, Chitra Jayanty, Gangadhar Jayanty, Simon
Johnson, Vimala Ramachandrin, Filipa Silva, and Zhaoguo Zhan. All rights reserved. Short sections
of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full
credit, including notice, is given to the source.
The Surprisingly Dire Situation of Children's Education in Rural West Africa: Results from
the CREO Study in Guinea-Bissau (Comprehensive Review of Education Outcomes)
Peter Boone, Ila Fazzio, Kameshwari Jandhyala, Chitra Jayanty, Gangadhar Jayanty, Simon
Johnson, Vimala Ramachandrin, Filipa Silva, and Zhaoguo Zhan
NBER Working Paper No. 18971
April 2013
JEL No. F35,H43,I2,O1,O55
ABSTRACT
We conducted a survey covering 20% of villages with 200-1000 population in rural Guinea-Bissau.
We interviewed household heads, care-givers of children, and their teachers and schools. We analysed
results from 9,947 children, aged 7-17, tested for literacy and numeracy competency. Only 27% of
children were able to add two single digits, and just 19% were able to read and comprehend a simple
word. Our unannounced school checks found 72% of enrolled children in grades 1-4 attending their
schools, but the schools were poorly equipped. Teachers were present at 86% of schools visited. Despite
surveying 351 schools, we found no examples of successful schools where children reached reasonable
levels of literacy and numeracy for age. Our evidence suggests that interventions that raise school
quality in these villages, rather than those which target enrollment, may be most important to generate
very sharp improvements in children's educational outcomes.
Peter Boone
London School of Economics
pb@effint.org
Ila Fazzio
Madrid, Spain
if@effint.org
Kameshwari Jandhyala
Delhi, India
kameshwarij@gmail.com
Chitra Jayanty
Bissau
Guinea Bissau
cj@effint.org
Gangadhar Jayanty
Bissau, Guinea Bissau
gj@effint.org
Simon Johnson
MIT Sloan School of Management
100 Main Street, E52-562
Cambridge, MA 02142
and NBER
sjohnson@mit.edu
Vimala Ramachandrin
Delhi, India
erudelhi@gmail.com
Filipa Silva
Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
filipa.n.r.silva@gmail.com
Zhaoguo Zhan
Beijing, China
zhanzhg@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn
3

Authorsroles:
PeterBoone:Conceivedthestudy,participatedinthedesignofthesurvey,analysedresults,co
authoredthispaper,andraisedthefinancingforthesurvey.
IlaFazzio:Conceivedthestudy,leadthedesignofthesurvey,leadthetrainingandmanagementof
fieldworkteams,analysedresultsandcoauthoredthispaper.
KameshwariJandhyala:Advisedonstudydesign,surveysandimplementation,andcoauthoredthis
paper.
ChitraJayanty:Conceivedthestudy,participatedinthedesignofthesurvey,supervisedthe
implementationoftheproject,andcoauthoredthispaper.
GangadharJayanty:Conceivedthestudy,participatedinimplementationoftheproject,andco
authoredthispaper.
FilipaSilva:Participatedinthedesignofthesurvey,trainedandsupervisedthefieldworkteams,
andcoauthoredthispaper.
SimonJohnson:Conceivedthestudy,analysedresults,coauthoredthispaper,andraisedfinancing
forthesurvey.
VimalaRamachandrin:Advisedonstudydesign,surveysandimplementation,coauthoredthis
paper.
ZhanZhaoguo:Carriedoutstatisticalanalysisandcoauthoredthispaper.

1. Introduction
Despitedecliningglobalpoverty,therearemanyregionsoftheworldwherepovertyremains
widespreadandchronic(Young2012).Childrengrowupintheseregionswithpoorhealth,andtheir
prospectsareharmedbypooreducation(BooneandJohnson2009).Therightofeverychildto
primaryschooleducationisoneoftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsfor2015,yetinmanyofthe
mostextremepocketsofpovertylittleisbeingdonetoaddresstheseissues.
However,inordertounderstandtheextentofproblemsandpotentialsolutions,weneeda
goodunderstandingofthecurrentconditions.Statisticsfromverypoorregionsaregenerally
unsatisfactoryforthispurpose(Jerven2013).Oftenstatisticsarebiasedormissingbecause
authoritieshaveincentivestopaintarosypicture,ortheysimplydontmaketheeffortorallocate
resourcestomeasure.Evenwhengoodstatisticsareavailable,themeasuresusuallycoverservice
provision(suchasthelevelofschoolenrolment),ratherthanthedesiredoutcome(indicatorsof
educationalandskillslevelsachieved).
Inthispaper,wereportonauniquesurveythatwasconductedin2010inruralvillagesand
schoolsofGuineaBissau,inWestAfrica.GuineaBissauisoneofthepoorestnationsoftheworld,
ranking192onincomepercapita,at$600perperson(Bank2012).TheUnitedNationsEducation,
ScientificandCulturalOrganization(UNESCO)reportsthenationaladultliteracyrateis54.2%,while
72%ofGuineaBissausyouthaged1524areliterate.Thenetprimaryschoolenrolmentratiois
73%.Thesefiguresrepresentnationalaverages,butourworksuggeststheymaskextremelypoor
educationaloutcomesinruralregions.
2

OnegoaloftheCREO(ComprehensiveReviewofEducationOutcomes)surveywastoprovidean
accurate,comprehensiveoverviewofchildrenslearningoutcomesandtherelationoftheseto
schoolquality,parentalcareandsocioeconomicvariables.Wearenotawareofanyothersimilarly
comprehensive,integratedsurveysofschools,households,caregiversandchildreninsuchpoor
regionsofWestAfrica.
3
Ouranalysisisbasedonsurveysfrom202villages(approximately20%of
thepopulation)withinterviewsfrom3,968households.Weinterviewed8,782parents,and

2
UNESCOdefinesliteracyasTheabilitytoreadandwritewithunderstandingasimplestatementrelatedto
onesdailylife.Itincludesacontinuumofreadingandwritingskills,andoftenincludesbasicarithmeticskills.
Oursurveypopulationrepresentsapproximately25%ofthecountryspopulation.Ifyouthliteracyratesin
urbanareaswereapproximately90%,thentheUNESCOdatacouldbeconsistentwithourdata.Wehavenot
surveyedurbanareas,howeverourexperiencesuggestsliteracyrateswouldbesubstantiallylowerthan90%
butwellabovetheruralratesreportedhere.
3
DemographicandHealthSurveys(DHS)coverimportantsocioeconomicvariables.Thissurveyallowsusto
identifychildrensoutcomeswiththeirrespectiveschools,villagesandparents,thuspermittingustoexamine
richercorrelations.Sincethisisasurvey,wecannotmakecausalinterpretationsbasedonthesecorrelations.
5

analysednumeracyandliteracytestsfor9,947childrenaged7to17.Weaskedchildrenwhich
schoolstheyattended,andthenvisited351schoolsandinterviewed781teachers.Wechecked
whetherschoolswereoperating,measuredattendancecomparedtoenrolment,andsurveyed
schoolmaterials.
Theresultsofthesurveypresentableakpictureofeducationalresourcesandoutcomesinrural
GuineaBissau.Accordingtothenationalcurriculum,bythirdgrade(childrenaged9),children
shouldbeabletoreadandcomprehendastory,andcompletethesimplemathstestweused(see
section3.3).Wefoundthat81%oftenyearoldscouldnotsumtwosingledigitnumbers,and91%
couldnotreadsinglewords.Amongthe1,169tenyearoldswithtestresults,wefoundonlyone
childwhowascapableofcompletingboththenumeracyandliteracytests.
Whyaretheseresultssopoor?Whilesurveyresponsesshouldbetakenwithcautionsincethey
maynotreflectactions,ourdemandindicatorssuggestparentshaveastrongdesiretosendtheir
childrentogoodschools.Over98%ofhouseholdheadsreportedtheywouldbewillingtopayan
average20%ofmonthlyincomeforschoolfeesforeachoftheirschoolagedchildrenifgood
schoolingwouldbeprovided.Inourspotchecksofschools,wefound72%ofenrolledchildrenat
theschool.Attendanceratesareprobablyboostedbyfunctioningschoollunchprograms.Thefact
thatchildrenattendschoolsdespitepooroutcomes,andthereportedwillingnesstopayfor
schooling,suggestadditionalinterventionsthattargetattendance,suchasconditionaltransfers
implementedinMexico,areprobablynotofprimaryimportancetoimproveeducationaloutcomes
(Kremer2003,PaulSchultz2004).
Onthesupplyside,giventhepoortestresults,itissurprisingtolearnthat86%ofschoolswere
openandroughlythreequartersofenrolledchildrenwereattendingwhenweconductedspot
checks.Theteachersreportedsubstantialexperienceandsometraining.However,veryfew
schoolshaveadequatetextbooks,andmanyteachershadapoorgraspofspokenPortuguese.
GuineaBissauhasmanylocallanguages.Themostwidelyspokenlanguageisamixof
Portuguese,thenationallanguage,andlocaldialectscalledKriol.Theonlyspokenlanguagewitha
writtenscriptisPortuguese.Ournumeracytests(apartfromnumberrecognition)weresimplemath
questionswrittenonpaper,andinstructionsweregivenverballyinthelocallanguage,sochildren
didnotneedtoknowPortugueseinordertosucceedinthetest.Instructionsforliteracytestswere
giveninthechildslocallanguage,butchildrenweretestedonreadingandcomprehensionof
Portuguese.
6

Animportantgoalofourprojectwastofindexamplesofsuccesswiththeaimofusingthese
tobetterunderstandhowprojectstoimproveeducationcanbedeveloped.Weanticipatedthatwe
couldfindindividualschoolsorvillageswhereeducationlevelswerehigh,andlessonscouldbe
learnedfromthese.Unfortunately,wefoundonlysixschools(withgreaterthan10pupils)where
averagescoresimpliedstudentscouldreadaparagraph.Forthenumeracytests,therewereno
schoolswheretheaveragestudentcouldmultiplyordivide.
Thesesurveyresultsprovideacomprehensivepictureofadysfunctionalschoolsystem.The
reasonsforthepoorfunctioningarenumerous.However,webelievetheevidencepointstoastrong
latentdemandforeducationinthesevillageswhichremainsunsatisfiedduetotheverypoorquality
ofexistingteachingandschoolsorganization.Whiletherearemanystepsthatcouldbetakento
makeschoolsfunctionbetter(Ramachandran2003,KremerandHolla2009),itisimportantto
understandwhichshouldbeprioritizedinregionssuchasGuineaBissau.
Thepublicsectorcannotbereliedontoprovideregularservicesduetopoliticalinstability,
institutionalcapacityandapoliticalsystemwhichdoesnotservetheverypoor.Privatesector
provisionofschoolinginthesevillagesisnotprofitableenoughtogenerateactivitiesduetolow
incomelevels.Thedifficultlogisticsoffindingtrainedteachers,gainingfinances,securingmaterials
andsupervisingperformancemakesitdauntingforindividualvillagestoimproveschoolsontheir
ownforasustainedperiod.SimilarproblemsplagueNGOsandforeigndonorswhoattemptto
improveschooloutcomes.Tosomeextent,whenfacedwiththechoiceofattemptingtobuildand
maintaineffectiveschools,orwaitingtolearnwhethertheexistingpublicschoolsmightgetbetter,
manyvillageschoosetowaitandhope.
Theresultisthatonemoregenerationofchildrenisgrowingupwithoutevenbasicnumeracy
andliteracyskills.
2.Methods
2.1Surveylocationandeligiblepopulation
Whenthesurveywasconducted,thelastpublishedcensusinGuineaBissaudatedfrom
1991.Wecompiledalistof913potentiallyeligiblevillagesfromthecensusbasedondemographic
estimatesofwhethertheywerelikelytohaveapopulationbetween200and1000in2010.Wethen
randomlyorderedthesevillagesnumberingthemfrom1to913.
4
Fieldworkersthenvisitedeach

4
TherandomizationwasconductedinACCESS,assigningeachvillageauniquenumberusingarandom
numbergenerator.Villageswerethenorderedsequentiallyaccordingtoassignednumbers.Thefirst202
eligiblevillagesfromthisorderingarereportedhere.
7

villageandinterviewedvillageleaderstolearntheestimatedtruepopulationofthevillage.Village
andhouseholdlevelsurveyswerecompletedfromDecember2009untiltheendoftheacademic
yearin2010.Somedelaysinimplementationanddatacheckingwerecausedbysecurityconcerns
duringandafterthesurveywascompleted.
Avillagewaseligibleforthesurveyifthevillageleadersagreedtotheinterviewandsurvey,
andifthepopulationwasestimatedtobebetween200and1000duringthefieldworkersvisitwith
aminimumof20households,anditwasaccessiblebylandduringthedryseason.Fromthelistof
913villages,wevisitedvillagessequentiallywithatargetof200villages.Theteamsvisited411
villages;however209ofthesewereineligibleduetothenumberofhouseholds,orpopulation,
beingaboveorbeloweligibilitythresholds.Ultimatelysurveyscovering202villageswerecompleted
andreportedhereintheanalysis.
5
Villageelderswereinterviewedtocompletebaselinedataon
villages.
Therearenomapsofhouseholdsinvillages.Weselectedhouseholdsforinterviews
accordingtosystematicsampling(Luman,Workuetal.2007).Thissamplingmethodologygenerates
anaverage20householdspervillage,independentofthesizeofthevillage.
6

Ahouseholdwaseligibleforinclusioniftheywereinaneligiblevillage,theywereselected
bysystematicsampling,theyhadatleastoneeligiblechild,andthehouseholdheadagreedtobe
interviewed.Weconductedaninitialinterviewwithahouseholdheadtodeterminecharacteristics
ofthehousehold,andtheeligiblechildreninthehousehold.
Achildwaseligibleifshelivedinaneligiblehouse,andshewasagedfrom7to17years,she
wasavailableonthedayofvisitofthesurvey,andshehadatleastoneeligiblecaregiverwhowas
availabletointerviewonthedayofvisit.Weinterviewedeachchildandconductedliteracyand
numeracytests.Wealsointerviewedallthechildsavailablecaregivers.

5
Weplannedtocomplete200villagesbeforetheendofthe2009/10schoolyear.Theteamskeptworkingto
completetheirlastvillageoncethe200totalhadbeenachieved.
6
ThesystemusedtoselecthouseswasderivedfromtheSystRSmethodologywhichwasdevelopedtobean
easybutrepresentativewayofrandomlyselectinghouseholdswhenthereisnosamplingframe.Anestimate
ofthenumberofhouseholdsinthevillageismade,andthenaskippingintervaliscalculatedbydividingthe
totalhousesby20.Toestablishthestartingpointoftherandomwalksupervisorsaskedaseniormemberof
thecommunitytotakethemtotwooppositeedgesofthevillage,preferablyalongthelongestaxisinthe
village(i.e.thetwomostdistanthousesinthevillage).Thesewerethestartingpointsfortwointerviewers.
Theinterviewersthenpickedarandomnumberbetween0andtheskippingintervaltodeterminethefirst
housetovisit.Theythenwalkedinalinecountinghousesuntiltheyreachedthisstartingnumber.Thatwould
bethefirsthousetointerview.Theythenwalkedtowardsthevillagecenterinaserpentinewayenumerating
housesaccordingtothecalculatedskippinginterval.Iftheydidn'tenumerateaminimumof20housesusing
theintervalsystem,theywouldwalkbacktowardstheedgeandenumeratehousesthathadnotbeen
enumerateduntiltheyreached20.
8

Whenwesurveyedvillages,welistedallPortugueselanguageschoolsintheregion.There
areKoranicschoolsintheseregions,wherePortugueseisnottaught,howeverwedidnotvisitthese
astheydonotteachthenationalcurriculum,andnearlyallsuchchildrenwerealsoenrolledina
Portugueselanguageschool.Wethenvisitedallschoolsthatchildrenreportedtheywereenrolled
at(duringourchildinterviews).Wesoughtpermissionfromheadteacherstosurveyschoolsand
conductteacherinterviews.Weinterviewedeveryteacherwhowasavailableonthedayof
interviewiftheytaughtanygrades1to4.
Wesoughtpermissiontointerviewfromvillageleaders,headteachers,householdheads,
andeachparticipant.Allvillagesandschoolsagreedtobeincludedinthestudy.Onlyone
householdheadrefusedtopermitinterviews.Intheremaininghouseholds,allchildrenandcare
giversagreedtobeinterviewed.
2.2Mainoutcome:Testscores
Theprimaryoutcomemeasureforthesurveyistestscoreresultsfromliteracyand
numeracytestsgiventoeligiblechildren.Inourinitialfieldworkwerecognizedthatawiderangeof
outcomeswaspossible,butthatasubstantialfractionofthepopulationwouldlikelyscorepoorlyon
commoninternationaltests,soweneededatestthatwasmoresensitiveatdiscriminatingatpoorer
levelsofeducation.WechosetomodifytestsdevelopedbyPratham,alargeIndianNGOthat
specializesineducationaloutcometestsinIndia,tosuittheenvironmentinGuineaBissau.We
conductedmultiplefieldtestsinvillagespriortothesurvey.
Theliteracytestwasimplementedasfollows:Theteststartsatamediumleveltaskwhere
childrenareaskedtoreadasentence.Iftheywereabletoreadatleast2ofthe4sentencesoffered,
theywouldbeaskedaboutthemeaningofsomeunderlinedwordsandalsoasked(inlocallanguage)
twoquestionsaboutthecomprehensionofthesesentences.Ifachildwasabletoreadsentences
theywouldbeofferedtoreadastory,andtestedoncomprehensionofthestory.Achildwhowas
notabletoreadasentencewouldbeofferedmonoanddissyllabicwordstoread.Childrenwho
werenotabletocorrectlyread4outof5wordswerethenaskedtorecognizeletters.Achildgot
thehighestpossiblemark(ascoreofeight)iftheycouldreadandcomprehendashortstory,while
theyreceivedzeroiftheycouldnotreadmonosyllabicwords.
Thenumeracytestsaredesignedsimilarly,startingwithadditionoftwosingledigitnumbers
withoutcarryforward.Ifachildwasabletosolvecorrectlyatleastonesum,theywouldbeoffered
tosolvesubtractionwithborrowing,followedbymultiplication,simpledivisionandinexactdivision.
Achildgotthehighestpossiblemarkiftheycouldanswerallquestionscorrectly.Iftheycouldnot
9

completetheinitialadditionquestions,theywereaskediftheycouldrecognizetwodigitandsingle
digitnumbers.Achildscoredzeroiftheycouldnotrecognizesingledigitnumbers.
Theinterviewersconductedthetestsinlanguagesthatwereconvenientforthechild.
However,sincelocallanguagesarenotwritten,andthenationalcurriculumteacheschildrentoread
inPortuguese,wetestedchildrensabilitytoreadandcomprehendPortuguese.
Wealsoconductedbackgroundsurveystohelpinterpretthereasonsbehindtestscore
results.Weinterviewedcaregiverstolearntheirsocioeconomicstatusaswellasattitudestowards
schoolingfortheirchildren.Wealsoconductedasurveytomeasurethequalityofschoolfacilities,
andweinterviewedteacherstolearntheiroveralltrainingandworkconditions.Ourschool
interviewsalsoprovidedspotcheckstolearnifschoolswerefunctioningandtheymeasured
attendance.
2.3 Datacollectionandmanagement
Aninitialteamof10peopleand10vehiclestravelledandlocatedeligiblevillagesbasedonthe
1991census.Theysoughtconsentfromvillageleaders,recordedtheGPSlocationofthevillage,and
determinedtheestimatedcurrentsizeofthevillage,andrecordedtheschoolsthatchildrenresident
inthevillageattended.
Theremainingsurveydatacollectionwasmanagedby5teamsof3people,includingone
supervisorforeachteam.Theseteamscompletedthehouseholdandchildsurveys,aswellas
implementingchildnumeracyandliteracytests.Theyfirstsoughtpermissiontoconductthesurvey
fromtheheadofthehousehold.Ifpermissionwasgranted,andiftherewasaneligiblechild,they
proceededtocompletethesurvey.Theysoughtinterviewswithallcaregiversforeligiblechildrenin
thehousehold.Thefieldworkerswouldtypicallystayinavillage3days,andtheyweretrainedto
repeatedlyseekoutinterviewswithcaregiversandchildrenuntilalleligiblechildrenandcaregivers
hadbeenreached.Whenconductingtests,childrenwereaskedtostepawayfromtheirfriendsand
otheronlookerstocompletethetest.Allsurveysanddiscussionwerecompletedinalocal
language.Forthenumeracytests,childrenwereaskedtoanswerwrittenquestions.Ifthechild
couldsumtwodigitscorrectly,weproceededtoharderquestions.Hence,topassthenumeracy
tests,childrendidnotneedtospeakanyPortuguese.
7
Instructionsforliteracywerestatedinlocal
languages,however,thewordsandstoriesusedinthetestwereinPortuguese.

7
Ifachildcouldnotaddtwosingledigitnumbers,thenthetestrevertedtocheckingiftheycouldrecognize
singleanddoubledigitnumbers.TheywererequiredtorespondverballyinPortuguesetothisnumber
recognitiontest.So,achildthatspokenoPortuguese,andcouldnotaddtwosingledigitsinawrittentest,
10

Theschoolssurveywascompletedbyoursurveysupervisorsduringthevillagevisits.
Supervisorsmadeseveralattemptstovisitschoolsduringhourswhentheyshouldbeopen,andif
schoolswerefunctioning,theysoughttheheadteachersapprovaltoconductthesurvey.They
examinedtheofficialenrolmentdataattheschool,andtheyvisitedclassroomstocountthenumber
ofchildrenactuallyattendingalongwithtextbooksavailable.
Duringeachvillagesurvey,supervisorsdoublecheckedsurveyformsanderrorswerecorrected
atthattime.Fourdataentrypersonnelconducteddoubleblinddataentry.Asupervisorwas
responsibleforcorrectingerrorsfoundwhencheckingdoubleblindentry.Ifneeded,weattempted
torevisitintervieweestocorrectanyerrorsfoundduringdataentry.Duetopoliticaluncertainty
beforeandafterthesurvey,somedatacorrectionhadtobedelayedforsecurityreasonsandthis
slowedthecompletionofdataanalysis,howeversuchcorrectionswereveryminor.
2.4 SampleSize
Thesurveywasdesignedtocoveranationalfootprintandprovideadequatepowertolearn
theimportanceofcovariates.Wewerelimitedbyaccesstogoodqualityvehiclesandneededto
completethestudywithinaschoolyear.Wewerealsolimitedbypoliticalupheavalwhichdelayed
implementationofthesurveyduetosecurityconcerns.Bysurveyingapproximately200villages
with10,000childrentested,wehaveawellpowereddatasettoexaminecorrelationsbetweentest
outcomesandothervariables.
3.0 Results
3.1PopulationCovered
Theanalysisisbasedonoutcomesforthe202surveyedvillages,including3,968household
surveys,4,907femalecaregiversurveys,3,875malecaregiversurveys.Intotalwefound19,776
childrenaged017livinginthesehouseholds,ofwhich10,014wereaged717andeligibleforour
literacyandnumeracytests.Wemanagedtocompletesurveysaswellasnumeracyandliteracy
tests,andsobasetheanalysis,on9,947ofthesechildren(Table1).
3.2.CharacteristicsofVillagesandHouseholds
Table2showsaveragepopulationofvillagesis457people.Theaveragehouseholdsizeisten
persons.Oursurveyoftwentyhouseholdscovers40%ofanaveragevillage.Fiftyfourpercentof
thevillageshadaschoolinthevillage,andwhentherewasnoschool,theaveragewalkingtimeto

wouldscorezero.Achildthatcouldaddsingledigitsinawrittentestwaspresumedtobeabletorecognize
numbersandreceivednoverbaltest.
11

thenearestschoolusedbyvillagerswas30minutes.Onaveragevillageswere97minutesfromthe
nearestroadwithregulartransport,andsixhourswalkingdistancefromavillagewithasecondary
school.TheWorldFoodProgramprovidesschoollunchesacrossthenation,and46%ofthevillages
inoursurveyreportedchildrenhadaccesstothesemealswithinthevillage.
Noneofthevillagesinthesurveyhadaccesstopubliclyprovidedelectricity.Sevenpercentof
householdsreporttheyhavetheirowngenerator,andsixpercenthavetelevisions.Battery
operatedradiosarecommon,withthreequartersofhouseholdsreportingtheyhaveone.For
transportation,twothirdsofhouseholdshadbicycles,andonly7%havemotorbikes.Theself
reportedtotalmonthlyincomewas44,292CFA($88.11attheaverageexchangerateof502.71
CFA/USDduringthesurvey),equallingroughly$9perpersoninthehousehold.
InTable3wereportquestionsrelatedtoattitudesofthehouseholdleadertoeducation.Nearly
100%ofrespondentssaidtheywouldbewillingtopayextramoneytoaddandimproveeducation
fortheirboysandgirls.Therewasnoindicationofgenderbias.Theyreportedtheywouldbewilling
tospend18%oftheirmonthlyincome.
8

Whenaskedthereasonsforwhychildrenstopgoingtoschool,themostcommonreported
reasonforgirlswasmarriage(73%ofrespondents),pregnancy(53%),andlackofanearbyschool
(37%).Sincegirlsinthesevillagestendtomarrysoonafterpuberty,thefindingssuggestgirlswould
stayatschooluntiltheirearlyteens.Forboys,themostcommonreasontostopschoolwasthatthe
familycannotaffordit(47%),followedbygettingmarried,needingtohelpathome,andlackofa
nearbyschool(3739%).Veryfewrespondentsreportedmoralconcernsregardingtheschoolingof
girlsorboys.
3.3.CharacteristicsofCareGiversandChildren
Tables4and5presentfindingsforcaregiversandchildren.Thetribalandreligiousbreakdown
ofwomenandmen(notshown)wassimilarandmatchesnationalfigures,withapproximately3/5of
thepopulationreportedasMuslim,and30%animist.
Sixpercentoffemalecaregiversreportedtheycouldread,butlessthanhalfofthesewereable
toreadasimplesentencewhenpresentedwithaliteracytest.Thirtysixpercentofmenclaimedto
beabletoread,butwefound1/3ofthesecouldnotreadasimplesentence,leaving24%of
interviewedmenwhoclaimedtheycouldread,andthenprovedabletoreadasentence.

8
TheIMFestimatesGDPpercapitain2010was$42permonth,whichwouldincludehouseholdincomeand
otherfactorincomes.Theseruralvillagesshouldbesubstantiallypoorerthantheaveragepopulationasour
dataimplies.
12

Amongstthechildrenweinterviewed,58%statedthattheyspokethelocalcreolelanguageat
home,andinterviewersfound75%ofchildrenwereabletospeakKriolsomewhatorfluentlyduring
theirinterviews.Lessthan1%ofchildrenreportedtheirfamilyspokePortugueseathome.
Whenaskedaboutschool,only5%ofchildrenreportedtheyhadattendedapreschool,and
85%reportedtheyhadattendedschoolsometimeinthepast.Seventypercentofchildrenreported
theywerecurrentlyenrolledinschool.Fortypercentofchildrenattendedpublicschools,while24%
wereenrolledinCommunitySchools.TwentytwopercentofchildrenattendedKoranicschoolsand
98%ofthesechildrenreportedthattheyalsoattendedanotherschool.
9

3.4.CharacteristicsofSchoolsandTeachers
Tables6and7presentfindingsfromschoolandteacherinterviews.Wecompiledtheschoollist
fromourvillagesurveysandfromaskingchildrenwhichschooltheyattended.Wethenattempted
tovisitallschoolswhichchildrenattendedattimeswhentheschoolshouldhavebeenopen,andwe
repeatedlyvisitedoveratleastthreedaysifteacherswerenotpresentonthefirstoccasion.Intotal
wefound353schoolsthatwerereportedtoservechildrenintheselectedvillages,howeverwhen
ourfieldworkersvisitedthese,only303hadteacherspresentonatleastonevisit.
Intheseschoolswefound781teacherswhotaughtgrades14.WedidnotvisitKoranicschools
asthesedonotteachthenationalcurriculum,andaregenerallynotrecognizedofficiallyasschools.
Approximatelyhalftheschoolswevisitedreceivedsupportfromthecommunityascleaningand/or
infrastructure,while28%ofschoolsreportedthatcommunitiesprovidedassistancedirectlyto
teachers(financialorinkind).Only45%ofschoolshadatoilet,and28%haddrinkingwater
accessible.
Theaverageschoolhad3teachersforgrades14,and80%ofteachersweremale.Teachers
agesrangedfrom18to61,withanaverage38,andonaveragetheycompletedninthgrade.Despite
ayoungnationalpopulation,theaverageteacherhadbeenteachingfornearly13years.Three
quartersofteachersreportedthattheyhadatextbook.
Whenfieldworkersvisitedclassroomstheyfoundslightlylessthanthreequartersofenrolled
studentswerepresentintheclass.Ifweconsidertheattendancerateinfunctioningschools,and
assumetheattendancerateinnonfunctioningschoolsiszero,thenaverageattendancewouldbe
approximately62%fortheoverallpopulation(assumingtheclosedschoolshadsimilarenrolment
sizetoschoolsthatwerefunctioning).

9
Koranicschoolsdonotteachthenationalcurriculum.
13

Nearlyallschoolshadblackboards,andtherewaschalkvisiblyavailableinalmostallclasses.
However,therewereveryfewtextbooksforanycourseorgrade.Forexample,onaveragethere
were29enrolledchildrenforeverygrade2mathtextbookvisible.
4.TestScoreResults
4.1NumeracyTestResults
Table8presentsresultsfromthenumeracytestsforallchildren.Thetotalnumberofchildren
testeddeclinesfrom1,527atage7,to1,018atage12,andthenfallssharplyto406byage17.We
haveroughly7%moremalesthanfemales,withthebiasincreasingwithage.Thesepatternsare
probablyduetochildrendroppingoutofschoolandmovingoutsidetheirvillageastheygetolder.
Asreportedfromthehouseholdsurvey,womentendtoleaveschoolearlierthanmendueto
marriageandpregnancy,whilemenleavewhentheyneedtoearnanincome.
Thenumeracytestresultsshoweducationallevelsareextremelypoor.Forexample,byage10
accordingtothenationalcurriculumofGuineaBissau,achildshouldbeinGrade3orGrade4,and
theyshouldbeabletopassallaspectsofthistest.Instead,wefindthat36%oftenyearoldscannot
evenrecognizeanumber.Afurther31%canrecognizesingledigitsbutcannotrecognizetwodigit
numbers.Thisisdespitethefactthat74%oftenyearoldsreportedthattheywerecurrently
attendingschool.Inthissurvey,thereisonechildwho,atage10,wasabletocompleteallquestions
fromthetest.
4.2LiteracyTestScoreResults
Table9presentsresultsfromliteracytests.Thematerialsforthesetestswereconductedin
Portuguese;howeverchildrenwereabletorespondintheirlocallanguageorCreoleiftheychoseto.
Theseotherlanguagesdonothaveawrittenscript,soschoolsteachreadingandwritingin
Portuguese,andchildrenwhoattendschoolshouldbefamiliarwiththematerials.
Theliteracytestshowsimilaroutcomestonumeracytests.Underthenationalcurriculum,by
theendofGrade2achildshouldbeabletoreadandcomprehendasimplesentence.However,we
found62%oftenyearoldchildrenwerenotevenabletorecognizeletters,while91%wereunable
toreadsimplewords.Onlyonetenyearoldinthewholesamplewasabletosuccessfullycomplete
thenumeracyandliteracyinfull.
Figures2and3illustrateaverageliteracyandnumeracytestscoresbyage.Thosechildren,who
doeventuallylearntoread,orlearnsimplemaths,tendtodosofarlaterthantheschoolcurriculum
callsfor.Wesuspectlearningoccursaccordingtoneedwithsomechildrenmoreexposedto
14

moneyandeconomicandsocialactivities,suchassmallscaletrading,wherelimitedliteracyand
numeracyisrequired.
4.3 MultivariateAnalysis
Weexaminedmultivariateoutcomesatthelevelofthechildandschool.Theschoolbased
resultsareshowninTable10whereweregressaveragestudentscoresbyschoolagainstanumber
ofcontrolvariables.
10
Thegeneralpicturefromtheseresultscorrelationsonlyisthatchildrenat
privateschoolshaveslightly(0.7)higherscoresthanchildrenatotherschools(resultsnormalized
againstcommunityschools).Thenumberofteachersattheschoolisstatisticallysignificant;
howevertheteacherstudentratioisnotimportant.Wesuspectthisreflectsthesizeoftheschool,
withlargerschoolsbeingclosertourbanareas,andinregionswherewrittenlanguageisprobably
morecommonlyseen.TheabilityoftheteachertospeakPortugueseisstatisticallysignificant.
However,othervariablesmeasuringschoolandteacherquality(suchastraining,anindicatorof
equipmentincludingchalkandblackboards,aswellasbooks)donotentertheregressions.
Giventhegenerallylowlevelofoutcomes,andthelimitedvarianceacrossvillagesand
schools(seesection4.3),theempiricalimportanceoftherighthandsidevariablesissmall.For
example,aprivateschoolwithfluentPortuguesespeakingteachersispredictedtohavean
improvementof1.2ontheaverageliteracytestcomparedtothesamesizedpublicschoolwith
teacherswhospeakverylittlePortuguese.Animprovementof1.2isaminorchangecomparedto
thelargelearninggaprevealedhere(seeFigure2).
Wedonotreporttheoutcomesfromchildlevelregressionsinthispaperasthereislittle
additionalcontributionfromthefindings.Theimpliedimpactsofrealisticchangesinthe
statisticallysignificantrighthandsidevariableswerenotempiricallyrelevantcomparedtothe
learninggap.Wedidfindstatisticallysignificantcorrelationsbetweentestscoresandabilityto
speakcreole(+ve:positivecorrelation),ahouseholdwealthindicator(+ve),motherandfathers
abilitytoread(+ve),andwalkingdistancetonearestroad(ve).
4.4 SearchingforExcellence
Figure4illustratestheproportionofstudentsateachschoolwhometnationalcurriculum
standardsforliteracyandnumeracy.Nationalstandardsarenotdemanding.Childrenentergrade1

10
WereportlinearOLSregressionresultsinordertosimplifytheinterpretationofcoefficients.Logistic
regressionsprovidedsimilarresultsandarenotreported.
15

aftertheirsixthorseventhbirthday.
11
Afterfirstgradeachildisexpectedtobeabletounderstand
lettersandnumbers,andreadandwritesimplesentences.Attheendofsecondgradetheyshould
beabletoreadandwriteshorttexts,add,andsubtract.Bygrade3theyshouldbeabletoreadand
writetexts,understandbasicgrammar,andadd,subtract,multiplyanddivide.
Weusedtestscorestocalculatewhetherachildmettheagespecificstandardimpliedby
thenationalcurriculum(assumingachilddidnotfailagrade).Ifachildfollowedthenational
curriculum,bytheageoften,achildshouldhavebeenabletoeasilycompletetheliteracyand
numeracytests.
12
Weassumedthatachildofsevencouldscorezeroontestastheymayhavejust
enteredschoolrecently,whileachildbyage8shouldhavecompletedonlythematerialofgrade
one,andachildagednineshouldhavecompletedgradetwo.Wethencomparedchildrensactual
scorestowhatcouldhavebeenexpectediftheyfollowedthenationalstandard.Weusedthisdata
toexaminewhetheranyspecificschoolsorvillageswereoutlierswithverygoodresultscompared
tothepoornationalaverages.
Figure4showsthattherearenogoodoutliersamongstschools.Wefoundsimilarresults
whenexaminingvillageleveloutcomes(notreported).Therearenoschoolswhere50%ofchildren
couldmeettheirstandardsfornumeracyscores,andonlysixschoolswheremorethanhalfthe
childrenmetnationalstandardsforliteracy.
WealsoexaminedwhetherschoolsfinancedbyNGOsshowedimprovedtestresults.There
were35schoolswhichreportedsignificantNGOfinancingfromtwoforeignNGOsthathave
operatedformanyyearsintheregion.Only17%and10%ofchildrenintheseschoolsmetnational
literacyandnumeracystandardsrespectively.
5 Discussion
Weconductedarepresentativesurveyofeducationaloutcomesinsmallandmediumsized
villagesinGuineaBissau.Theresultsillustrateextremelypoorliteracyandnumeracyoutcomefor
children,regardlessofwhethertheyattendschool.
5.1StudyLimitations

11
Atthetimeofthesurveywhenachildpassedtheirseventhbirthdaytheywererequiredtoenrolatschool,
howeveroftenparentsenrolledchildrenatagesix.Subsequenttothissurvey,theentryageforgradeonewas
changedtosixyears.
12
Oursurveywasconductedinthelasttrimesteroftheschoolyear,soatenyearoldchildwouldbenearing
completionofeithergrade3orgrade4iftheyhadbegunschoolatagesevenandpassedeachschoolyear
successfully.
16

Thereareseverallimitationstothissurvey.Wehaveprovidedasnapshotoftheconditionsin
thespringandearlysummerof2010.Thiswasaperiodofpoliticaluncertainty,butduringthis
periodthegovernmenthadmadeeffortstopayteacherssalariesontime.Althoughthiswouldnot
haveimpactedtestscoresquickly,thereportedattendancelevelsandschoolopeningsmayhave
beenmodestlybetterthanotheryears.
OurliteracytestswereinPortuguese,andchildreninruralvillagesaregenerallyonlyexposedto
Portugueseatschool.Wemanagedtheinterviewsinthelocallanguagesinordertobeableto
improvecompliance,andgivechildrentheirbestchanceatcommunicatingcorrectanswers.
However,thelanguagebarrierwouldnaturallyreduceliteracyscores.Wedonotseeareasonfor
languagebarrierstodirectlyimpactnumeracyscores.
Giventhisisasurvey,thecorrelationsreportedshouldnotbetreatedasdescribingcausality.
5.2GeneralDiscussion
Onegoalofthisstudywastousetheuniquecombinationofinterviewswithparents,children,
teachersandschoolsinordertobetterunderstandthekeyfactorsdeterminingeducational
outcomesinthenation.Thiscouldprovideabackgroundforinterventionsaimedatimproving
outcomesinthefuture.
Theresultsprovidesomeevidencethatcommunitydemandforeducationissubstantial.Nearly
100%ofheadsofhouseholdsreportedtheywerepreparedtopaymoneyinordertoimprovethe
educationofbothboysandgirls.Onaverage,theywerewillingtospendapproximately20%of
incomeonchildrenseducation.Wefoundthat24%ofchildrenattendedcommunityschools.Many
ofthesewerecreatedandpartiallyfinancedbylocalcommunities.
Thereasonsfordroppingoutofschoolalsopointedtohealthydesireforeducation.Girlswere
reportedtomainlydropoutwhentheybecamepregnantorgotmarried,meaningthattheywould
remainatschooluntilafterpuberty.Boysweremorelikelytodropoutinordertogainincome,but
thismayalsohavebeenassociatedwithfatherhoodandmarriage.
Wedidnotconductanysurveysonthereturnstoeducation,butthereisnoreasontothinkthe
patterninGuineaBissaudiffersfromelsewhereinAfrica(Kuepie,Nordmanetal.2009).Wedidfind
thattheirparentsreportedawillingnesstopayforthiseducation,andfortheyoungerchildrenin
thisstudy,parentsviewsofperceivedreturnsmaybemostimportant(Jensen2010).Aliterateand
numeratechildwouldprobablymovetothecapital,oranothermajorcity,wheredemandforskilled
labourisstrong.
17

However,ifdemandforeducationweretrulystrong,weshouldexpectcommunitiesand
householdstofindmeanstoimprovethequalityandextentofschooling.Therearesomegood
reasonstothinkthatbarrierstothisarelarge.Theextremelyloweducationlevelssuggestsome
communitieswillnothaveactivememberswiththeinformationandknowledgeneededto
intervenesuccessfullyinschools.Privateschoolsdoexistinurbanareas,buttheyarerareinsmall
villages.Thisisprobablyduetothelargecostsandlogisticeffortsneededtocreate,supervise,and
maintainschoolsintheseisolatedvillages.Giventhespendingpowerofhouseholdsissmall(with
$88averagemonthlyhouseholdincome),revenueswouldbemodest.
Communitiescananddoformschoolsontheirown,buttomaintaintheseschoolsconcerted
effortandfinancingisneeded.Wefoundstudentsatcommunityschoolsdidnotperformbetter
thanthoseatstateschools.Anecdotally,weweretoldinmanyvillagesthatitisdifficultforthemto
attractgoodteacherswhoarewillingtostayforlongperiods.Bothseasonalandpermanent
migrationinterfereswiththesustainabilityofschools.Further,sincefamilieswithschoolaged
childrenchangeaschildrengrowup,thereneedstobeameanstoensureregularfinancingas
householdswhousetheschoolschange.Someethniccommunities,suchastheFula,areknownto
havestrongercommunitystructuresthanotherssuchasBalanta,howeverethnicbackgrounddid
notcorrelatestronglywithtestoutcomes(Einarsdr2004).
ThefactthatNGOfinancedschools,withbetterinfrastructureandequipment,didnot
demonstrategoodtestscoressuggeststhatitistheoperationsintheclassroom,suchasteacher
activitiesandsupervisionoftheoutcomesoftheschool,whichmaybeneededtogeneratebetter
outcomes.
1314
Onecommonbarriertoallschoolsislanguage.Childrenandteachershavelittle
opportunitytouseorimprovePortugueseoutsidetheclassroom,andwhileteacherscanteachusing
locallanguages,thecommunicationbarrierwhenbooksareused,orliteracyistaught,canbelarge.
Itishardtounderestimatethedifficulttaskateacherfaces.Theyworkincommunitieswherefew
adultsreadandwrite,thereareveryfewbooksandwrittenlanguagetobeseen,childrenmaynot
havenotebooksorpensandpaper,andthereisnogoodlightingatnight.

13
Inastudycomparingchildrenstestresultsin21subSaharanAfricannations,equipmentandthenumberof
schoolshiftsofteacherswerehighlycorrelatedwithtestscoreoutcomes.Wedidnotfindsimilarresultshere.
Itispossiblethatreportedcorrelationsinourstudy,aswellasthisotherstudy,effectivelycaptureindicators
oftheschoolingregime,ratherthancausality.Sincenoregimesappeartoworkacrossourpopulations,there
areonlyweakcorrelationsbetweenindicatorvariablesandtestscores.Fehrler,S.,K.MichaelowaandA.
Wechtler(2009)."Theeffectivenessofinputsinprimaryeducation:insightsfromrecentstudentsurveysfor
SubSaharanAfrica."JournalofDevelopmentStudies(UK)45,No.9:15451578.
14
ArandomizedevaluationofprovidingtextbookstochildreninKenyafoundnoimpactontestscoresfor
childrenreceivingtextbooksGlewwe,P.,M.KremerandS.Moulin(2009)."ManyChildrenLeftBehind?
TextbooksandTestScoresinKenya."AmericanEconomicJournal:AppliedEconomics1(1):112135.
18

Theresultsfromoursurveysuggestthereislittlepressurecomingfromteachers,ortheir
supervisors,toimproveoutcomesatschools.Wearenotawareofanyattemptstoincentivize
teacherstoimprovechildrenseducationaloutcomes(Glewwe,Iliasetal.2010).Nearlyallteachers
reportedtheyweretestingchildrenregularly,andclassesappearedtobefunctioninginmost
schools.Hence,teachersmusthavebeenawarethatchildrenwerefaringextremelypoorlyat
schoolscomparedtonationalstandards.
Ifdemandforeducationservicesissubstantial,whilecollectiveactionproblemspreventthe
formationoffunctioningschools,thenweshouldobservethataprovisionofhighqualityservices
wouldleadtosubstantialimprovementinlearningoutcomes,especiallycomparedtothelowlevels
observedinthesevillagesin2010.Aclusterrandomizedcontrolledtrialhasrecentlybeen
completedintribalregionsofAndhraPradesh,wherepublicschoolqualityisconsideredtobevery
low,tolearnwhetheraveragetestscoresofallchildreninvillagescanberaisedifthechildrenare
offeredadditional,highquality,afterschooltrainingfortheirchildren.Suchresearchwillhelp
discernwhethersupply,ratherthanissuesrelatedtothedemandforschooling,drivesthepoor
resultsinthatregion(Eble,Mannetal.2010).
Therearenorandomizedschoolallocationsornaturalexperimentswhichcouldpermitusto
examinewhetherimprovedsupplyofqualityschoolinghasacausalimpactonoutcomesinour
surveypopulation.Wecouldonlydetermineindicatorsofqualitythroughvariablessuchasthe
availabilityoftextbooks,chalkboards,andsomebasiccharacteristicsofteachers.Theresultsfrom
thisanalysisweremixed,butgenerallysuggestedthatimprovementsintheseindicatorsdonot
correlatewithlargechangesineducationaloutcomes.
6 Conclusion
GuineaBissauisanextremelypoornationwithfrequentpoliticalinstabilityandpoorschooling,
health,andeducationalinfrastructure.Aswepreparedoursurveyin2009,thePresidentwas
assassinated.InthemidstofoursurveyinApril2010,thePrimeMinisterandArmyChiefofStaff
wereimprisonedduringanattemptedcoup.WhileotherpartsofAfricaarereportedtobe
improvingrapidlyonsocioeconomicindicators,GuineaBissauisanexampleofacountrywhich
appearstrappedinpovertydespiteofficialdatawhichclaimsimprovements.Oursurveysuggests
nearlytheentirecurrentgenerationofchildreninruralvillagesisgrowingupinnumerateand
illiterate.
Oursurveyindicatedsubstantialdesirebyparentsandhouseholdchiefsforimprovededucation
invillages.Childrencontinuetoattendschoolsdespitelearningverylittle,andamongstschoolsthat
19

wereopen,teacherswereusuallyintheclassrooms.Despitethis,littlelearningisoccurring.We
believeamainfactordrivingthesepoorresultsispoorqualityofteachingwithintheschools.
Teachersareisolated,underequipped,receivesalariesafterlongdelays,andhavelittletraining.A
programthatsubstantiallyimprovedconditionsforteaching,whileintroducingstrongsupervisionof
teachersandmonitoringofstudentprogress,mayaddresssomeofthekeyreasonsthatchildrenare
learninglittledespiteattendingschools.
However,furtherresearchisneededtolearnwhichfactorsareattheheartofGuineaBissaus
pooroutcomes,andtounderstandwhichinterventionsmaybeabletochangethese.Ifleft
unattended,educationaloutcomesofyoungchildreninruralGuineaBissauarelikelytoremaindire
wellintothefuture.

20

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Boone,P.andS.Johnson(2009).BreakingoutofthePocket:DoHealthInterventionsWork?What
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BrookingsInstitutionPress:5590.

Eble,A.,V.Mann,P.Bhakta,R.Lakshminarayana,C.Frost,D.ElbourneandP.Boone(2010)."The
STRIPEStrialsupporttoruralIndia'spubliceducationsystem."Trials11:10.

Einarsdr,J.n.n.(2004).Tiredofweeping:motherlove,childdeath,andpovertyinGuinea
Bissau.Madison,UniversityofWisconsinPress.

Fehrler,S.,K.MichaelowaandA.Wechtler(2009)."Theeffectivenessofinputsinprimaryeducation:
insightsfromrecentstudentsurveysforSubSaharanAfrica."JournalofDevelopmentStudies(UK)
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Glewwe,P.,N.IliasandM.Kremer(2010)."TeacherIncentives."AmericanEconomicJournal:
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Glewwe,P.,M.KremerandS.Moulin(2009)."ManyChildrenLeftBehind?TextbooksandTest
ScoresinKenya."AmericanEconomicJournal:AppliedEconomics1(1):112135.

Jensen,R.(2010)."THE(PERCEIVED)RETURNSTOEDUCATIONANDTHEDEMANDFORSCHOOLING."
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Kremer,M.(2003)."RandomizedEvaluationsofEducationalProgramsinDevelopingCountries:
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Table 1: Population Surveyed and Analysed


Persons or
units
Eligible Villages 913
Randomly Selected Villages 202
Households 3968
Female Care Givers 4907
Male Care Giver 3875
Children in households: 19776
of which age 7-17 10014
of which fully completed interviews
and tests 9947
Schools used by the children 351
of which: were open to be assessed 303
Teachers present and interviewed 781




Table 2: Characteristics of Villages

Units
Average of
Sample
Standard
Deviation Min Max
Average Population N 458 230 200 1000
Walking distance to nearest school Minutes
Is there a school in the village 1=Yes, 0=No
Is there a meals program in the village 1=Yes, 0=No 0.460 0.50 0 1
Walking distance to nearest road with
regular transport Minutes 97 80 3 600
Walking distance to nearest village with
secondary school Minutes 363 483 0 2880
Note: Observations are excluded where data is missing or not answered unless otherwise reported.



Table 3: Characteristics of Households

Units
Average of
Sample
Standard
Deviation Min Max
How many people in household N 9.68 5.17 2 47
How many rooms in the house N 4.71 2.25 1 14
Does your house have? 1=Yes, 0=No 0 1
Generator 0.07 0.255 0 1
Television 0.061 0.24 0 1
Radio 0.749 0.433 0 1
Mobile 0.04 0.197 0 1
Table 0.282 0.451 0 1
Motorbike 0.067 0.25 0 1
Bicycle 0.677 0.468 0 1
Watch/Clock 0.618 0.486 0 1
Total monthly income of all
members FCF 44,292 34,053 0

420,000
Any person in the house who can
read or write? 1=Yes, 0=No 0.614 0.487 0 1
Would you be willing to pay extra
to have a son get schooling? 1=Yes, 0=No 0.995 0.069 0 1
if so, how much per year? FCF 8308 7892 0 180,000
Would you be willing to pay extra
to have a daughter get schooling? 1=Yes, 0=No 0.994 0.079 0 1
if so, how much per year? FCF 8,171 7,814 0 180,000
Main reasons that boys stop
Schooling 1=Yes, 0=No
School isn't available nearby 0.371 0.483 0 1
Needs to earn money 0.27 0.444 0 1
Gets Married 0.389 0.487 0 1
Help at Home 0.382 0.486 0 1
Avoid enticement away from
family morals 0.091 0.288 0 1
Family can't afford it 0.471 0.499 0 1
Main reasons that girls stop
schooling 1=Yes, 0=No
School isn't available nearby 0.314 0.464 0 1
Needs to earn money 0.069 0.254 0 1
Gets Married 0.731 0.444 0 1
Help at Home 0.217 0.412 0 1
Avoid enticement away from
family morals 0.121 0.326 0 1
Family can't afford it 0.318 0.466 0 1
She becomes pregnant 0.527 0.499 0 1
Note: Observations are excluded where data is missing or not answered unless otherwise reported.
Table 4: Characteristics of Parents/Care-Givers

Units
Average
of Sample
Standard
Deviation Min Max
Female Care Giver (4907 respondents)
Age Years 38.51 12.1 15 90
Ethnic Background 1=Yes, 0=No
Balanta 0.258 0.438 0 1
Fula 0.414 0.493 0 1
Mandinga 0.151 0.358 0 1
Other 0.177 0.381 0 1
Religion
Animist 0.301 0.459 0 1
Muslim 0.619 0.486 0 1
Christian 0.046 0.209 0 1
Other 0.034 0.181 0 1
Claims knows how to read and write 1=Yes, 0=No 0.0569 0.232 0 1
and was able to pass a literacy test 0.0273 0.163 0 1
Attained a school level of at least grade 1 1=Yes, 0=No 0.0913 0.288 0 1
Male Care Giver (3875 respondents)
Age 47.50 14.1 17 100
Claims knows how to read and write 1=Yes, 0=No 0.358 0.517 0 1
and was able to pass a literacy test 0.239 0.427 0 1
Attained a school level of at least grade 1 1=Yes, 0=No 0.404 0.491 0 1
Note: Observations are excluded where data is missing or not answered unless otherwise reported.


Table 5: Characteristics of Children


Units
Average of
Sample
Standard
Deviation Min Max
Age
Sex
1=Girl,
0=Boy 0.526 0 1
Languages at home
Kriol 0.577 0.491 0 1
Portuguese 0.001 0.041 0 1
Other 0.421 0.497 0 1
Does she speak/understand Kriol a little or
fluently at interview
1=Yes,
0=No 0.748 0 1
Ever attended pre-school
1=Yes,
0=No 0.057 0.231 0 1
Ever attended a school
1=Yes,
0=No 0.845 0.362 0 1
Attending a school at time of interview?
1=Yes,
0=No 0.703 0.457 0 1
What type of school does she attend? (can
be none, or more than one for each child)
1=Yes,
0=No 0 1
Public 0.413 0.492 0 1
Community 0.238 0.425 0 1
Private 0.026 0.158 0 1
Missionary 0.027 0.163 0 1
Koranic 0.217 0.163 0 1
What languages do they speak at school
Portuguese 0.752 0.432 0 1
Creole 0.899 0.301 0 1
Note: Observations are excluded where data is missing or not answered unless otherwise reported.

Note: Observations are excluded where data is missing or not answered unless otherwise reported.
*Teachers teach an average 1.67 classes, so pupils per class will be lower.
Table 6: Characteristics of Schools

Units
Average
of
Sample
Standard
Deviation Min Max
Schools (303 respondents)
School Type 1=Yes, 0=No
Public

0.591 0.493 0 1
Community 0.314 0.465 0 1
Private 0.059 0.237 0 1
Missionary 0.036 0.187 0 1
Does the School Receive Support from the
Community? 1=Yes, 0=No
Cleaning 0.538 0.499 0 1
for Teachers 0.277 0.448 0 1
Food 0.185 0.389 0 1
Water 0.092 0.29 0 1
Infrastructure 0.469 0.5 0 1
How many teachers for Grades 1-4 work
in the school
Male N 2.38 1.55 0 11
Female N 0.611 1.31 0 8
How many children are enrolled in Grades
1-4
Grade 1 N 60.7 39.1 7 252
Grade 2 N 45.7 33.7 6 221
Grade 3 N 39.7 294 6 184
Grade 4 N 42.7 34.5 4 210
Average pupil per teacher ratio for
combined grades 1-4* N 63.4 24.4 7.2 17.8
Attendance ratio at time of visit (amongst
schools that were operating when visited)
Grade 1 Proportion 0.772 0.223 0.139 1.72
Grade 2 Proportion 0.74 0.236 0.056 2.07
Grade 3 Proportion 0.724 0.306 0.083 3.29
Grade 4 Proportion 0.744 0.233 0.067 1.92
Average number of math text books per
enrolled child at the school
Grade 1 Proportion 0.033 0.135 0 1
Grade 2 Proportion 0.035 0.102 0 0.96
Grade 3 Proportion 0.036 0.123 0 1
Grade 4 Proportion 0.041 0.112 0 0.88
Does the school have a toilet? 1=Yes, 0=No 0.452 0.499 0 1
Does the school have drinking water
available? 1=Yes, 0=No 0.274 0.447 0 1

Note: Observations are excluded where data is missing or not answered unless otherwise reported.




Table 7: Characteristics of Teachers

Units
Average
of
Sample
Standard
Deviation Min Max
Gender 1=Female,0=Male 0.19 0.392 0 1
Age Years 38.5 10.7 18 61
Highest grade achieved Grade level 9.41 1.74 4 12
Did she receive training before teaching? 0.595 1.23 0 8
How many years has she been teaching? Years 12.6 11.6 0 46
How many years has she been teaching at
this school? Years 6.51 6.48 0 35
Does she use a textbook when teaching? 1=Yes, 0=No 0.739 0.44 0 1
Does she test students regularly? 1=Yes, 0=No .986 .118 0 1
Note: Tests were conducted sequentially. For example, if a child was unable to a sentence. Based on 9,947 test scores.

Table 8: Results from Numeracy Tests by Age and Standard Achieved

Percentage of Children, by Age, at Specific Standards
Age: 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Standard
Test
Score:
Not able to recognize single digits 0 78.13 61.24 44.57 36.36 26.27 21.02 15.92 14.71 17.57 13.64 14.04
Can recognize single digit numbers 1 18.66 28.45 34.63 31.22 33.05 25.34 21.46 19.33 15.34 15.29 7.88
Can recognize two digit numbers 2 1.77 5.96 9.73 13.43 14.16 16.4 17.33 16.46 13.81 14.67 16.01
Can add two single digit numbers 3 0.52 1.45 4 5.47 5.21 8.25 9.43 7.23 8.37 5.58 4.93
Can add a single and two digit number 4 0.59 1.87 5.43 7.44 12.59 16.01 19.93 20.7 19.67 20.45 18.97
5 0.33 0.68 0.92 3.34 4.84 7.37 5.31 7.61 10.04 7.23 8.62
Can subtract one two digit number from another 6 0 0.17 0.31 1.45 1.57 2.06 3.42 5.49 4.74 7.64 8.13
7 0 0 0.2 0.68 0.97 1.08 3.42 3.49 3.35 7.23 6.4
Can multiply a two digit number by a single digit
number 8 0 0.17 0.2 0.34 0.85 1.18 1.18 2.62 2.09 2.48 5.91
9 0 0 0 0.17 0.24 0.79 1.18 0.75 1.26 2.07 2.71
Can divide a single digit into a two digit number 10 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.59 0.25 1.12 1.24 1.72
11 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.24 0.62 1.53 1.45 1.97
Inexact division, a single digit into a two digit number 12 0 0 0 0.09 0.24 0.2 0.59 0.75 1.12 1.03 2.71
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Number 1,527 1,174 976 1,169 826 1,018 848 802 717 484 406

Table 9: Results from Literacy Tests by Age and Standard Achieved



Percentage of Children by Age at Specific Standards
Age: 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Standard Test Score:
Cannot recognize letters 0 92.67 81.26 71.11 62.28 52.42 44.2 35.5 33.17 31.94 29.34 25.12
Can recognize letters but not words 1 7.14 16.87 23.67 28.83 31.36 30.26 32.31 29.55 26.22 21.69 17
2 0 0.09 0 0.09 0.12 0.29 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.41 0.25
Can recognize and comprehend
words, but cannot read a simple
paragraph 3 0.2 1.53 4.3 5.73 9.32 14.34 16.51 15.59 16.18 15.08 16.01
4 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.12 0.12 0 0.21 0
Can read paragraph but cannot
answer simple comprehension
questions 5 0 0 0.2 0.34 1.33 1.57 1.89 3.37 1.67 2.69 3.69
Can read and comprehend a simple
paragraph but not a story 6 0 0.09 0.61 1.54 3.39 4.22 4.72 6.23 8.65 10.12 9.36
7 0 0 0 0.34 0.12 0.79 0.94 0.87 1.67 1.03 1.97
Can read and comprehend a story 8 0 0.17 0.1 0.86 1.94 4.13 7.9 10.97 13.53 19.42 26.6
Total (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Number of Children Assessed 1,527 1,174 976 1,169 826 1,018 848 802 717 484 406
Note: Tests were conducted sequentially. For example, if a child could not add two single digits, we did not ask that they multiply. Based on 9,947 test
scores.
Table 10: School-based Regression Results

Dependent Variable: Literacy Numeracy
Score Score
RHS Variable: Coef. Coef.
(se) (se)
Average Student Age 0.463
***
0.526
***
(0.049) (0.062)
Public School -0.040 -0.134
(0.188) (0.211)
Private School 0.669
**
0.741
*
(0.285) (0.383)
Missionary School 0.095 0.412
(0.530) (0.717)
Student to Teacher Ratio -0.002 -0.001
(-0.003) (0.004)
Equipment -0.006 -0.018
(0.020) (0.023)
Number of Primary School Teachers 0.727
***
1.121
***
(0.16) (0.220)
Average years of teacher training -0.086 -0.121
(0.082) (0.118)
Average years teaching -0.002 -0.001
(0.009) (0.012)
Teacher's walking distance from school
(minutes) 0.001 0.001
(0.001) (0.001)
Teacher teaches more than one grade (1=Yes) -0.300
*
-0.221
(0.162) (0.188)
Number of shifts the teacher teaches -0.231 -0.703
(0.185) (0.260)
Teacher speaks local language 0.064 0.082
(0.115) (0.145)
Teacher speaks Portuguese (rank 0, 1, 2) 0.237
*
0.425
**
(0.137) (0.199)
Average Monthly Salary (000 CFA) 0.008 0.006
(.0073) (0.00936)
Constant -4.235
***
-5.571
***
(0.656) (0.880)
N 280 280
R2 0.591 0.612
RMSE 1.127 1.322
Note: Regressions based on average variables for schools. Due to missing
variables 23 schools were excluded.

Figure 1: Map of Guinea-Bissau

Figure 2: Literacy Scores by Age

Figure 3: Numeracy Scores by Age


0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
L
i
t
e
r
a
c
y

T
e
s
t

S
c
o
r
e

Age of Child (years)
An average 11 year old
can recognize letters
but not words
Less than half of nine year
olds can recognize letters
of the alphabet
An average sixteen year
old can recognize and
comprehend words, but
cannot read a paragraph
An average 14 year old can
recognize words, but has
trouble comprehending them
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
N
u
m
e
r
a
c
y

T
e
s
t

S
c
o
r
e

Age of Child (years)
An average 11 year old
can't add two single
digits
Only half
of eight year olds
can recognize single
digits
An average sixteen year
old can't subtract a single
digit from a two digit
number
An average 14 year old can add two
single digits but cannot addd
two digit numbers to a single
digit number
Figure 4: Plot of the proportion of children in each school that met national curriculum standards
for literacy and numeracy (children aged 8-17, Schools with at least ten interviewed students)
Note: Each point presents the results for one school. A point 0.1, 0.1 would represent a school
where 10% of children enrolled in the school achieved the national curriculum standards in both
literacy and numeracy. The results cover 185 schools where 10 or more children had test scores,
and 5,360 students.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Literacy
Numeracy