Recap: Independent Events

Example 1: I travel by bus and train on my journey to work. Given that P(bus late) is .! and independently P(train late) is ."# $al$ulate the probability that: a) both the bus and the train are late% b) either the bus or the train (or both) are late. &e $an answer this 'uestion by drawin( a tree dia(ram. )et * + bus late# , + train late.

a) P(* and ,) + .! - ." + . . b) P(* /0 ,) + 1 1 P(neither are late) + 1 1 .2 - .3 + .44. Example ": 5aroline plays a (ame with a 6air $oin. 7he keeps throwin( the $oin until a head is obtained# at whi$h point she stops. 5al$ulate the probability that: a) the (ame 6inishes on the !rd throw% b) the (ame 6inishes in less than 8 attempts% $) the (ame $ontinues 6or more than 1 throws. 1 1 1 1 = " " " 3 b) P((ame 6inishes in less than 8 attempts) + P(6inishes on 1st or "nd or !rd or 4th (o) 1 *ut# P((ame 6inishes on 1st (o) + P(9ead) + " 1 1 1 P((ame 6inishes on "nd (o) + P(, ;:< 9) + = " " 4 1 1 1 1 1 P((ame 6inishes on 4th (o) + P(,# ,# ,# 9) + = " " " " 1. 1 1 1 1 18 7o P((ame 6inishes in less than 8 (oes) + + + + = " 4 3 1. 1. a) P((ame 6inishes on !rd (o) + P(,ail ,9E: ,ail ,9E: 9ead) + 1 1 $) P((ame $ontinues 6or more than 1 throws) + P(6irst 1 throws are tails) + = 1 "4 "
1

Dependent Events and Conditional Probability

Introdu$tory example: ,he probability that it will be sunny tomorrow is probability that 7usan plays tennis is 1 . I6 it is sunny# the !

4 . I6 it is not sunny# the probability that 7usan plays tennis is 8

" . =ind the probability that 7usan plays tennis. 8

P(tennis) + P(sunny ;:< tennis) > P(not sunny ;:< tennis) 1 4 " " 3 + + = ! 8 ! 8 18

Example ": /n avera(e I (et up early ! days out o6 1 # and (et up late one day in 1 . I 6or(et somethin( on " out o6 every 8 days on whi$h I am late and on one third o6 the days on whi$h I am early. I do not 6or(et anythin( on the days when I (et up on time. (a) =ind the probability that I 6or(et somethin(. (b) 5on6irm that 6or 3 ? o6 the time I am neither 6or(et6ul nor late. )et E + (et up early , + (et up on time ) + (et up late = + 6or(et somethin( =@ + don@t 6or(et anythin(

,he tree dia(ram then looks as 6ollows:

A part (b)

A part (b)

a) P(6or(et somethin() + P(E and =) > P(, and =) > P() and =) ! 1 . 1 " 2 + + + = 1 ! 1 1 8 8 b) ,he two situations where I am neither 6or(et6ul nor late have been indi$ated on the tree dia(ram: ! " . 4 + 1 = 7o P(neither 6or(et6ul o6 late) + 1 ! 1 8 ,here6ore# on 3 ? o6 o$$asions I will neither 6or(et anythin( nor be late.