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The ASEAN Regional Forum and Other ASEAN-Centric Regional Institutions and the Asia-Pacific

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer CPG Asia Pacific Security Conference Sukosol Hotel, Bangkok December 3-4, 2013

Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)


Treaty of Amity and Cooperation 1976
Chapter IV Pacific Settlement of Disputes
ASEAN High Council good offices, mediation, inquiry or conciliation High Council may constitute itself as a committee of mediation, inquiry or conciliation

ASEAN Draft Code of Conduct South China Sea

ASEAN Charter Settlement of Disputes


Resolve peacefully all disputes in a timely manner through dialogue, consultation and negotiation. ASEAN shall maintain and establish dispute settlement mechanisms in all fields of ASEAN Cooperation Good Offices, Conciliation and Mediation
Chairman of ASEAN or Secretary-General

ASEAN Summit

Consultative Council

Political Security Council

Economic Council

Socio-Cultural Council

ASEAN Community 2015


Three Pillars

PoliticalSecurity

Economic

SocioCultural

ASEAN Political Security Cooperation

ASEAN Political Security Council

ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting

Other Security Ministries

ASEAN Maritime Forum

ADMM

ADSOM

Army

Navy
ASEAN Chiefs of Navy

Air

Intelligence

ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting

ASEAN Security Community


Plan of Action
I. Political Development II. Shaping and Sharing Norms III. Conflict Prevention IV. Conflict Resolution V. Post-Conflict Peace-Building VI. Implementing Mechanisms

Shaping and Sharing Norms


Strengthening Treaty of Amity and Cooperatin (TAC) regime Development of the ASEAN Charter Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC)

Conflict Prevention
Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) Preventive Measures (PD) ARF process Cooperation on non-traditional security Respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty and unity of members countries Cooperation on separatist threats

Strengthening ARF Process


ASEAN early warning system to prevent occurrence and escalation of conflicts ARF Unit within the ASEAN Secretariat

Enhanced role of the ARF Chair


Moving the ARF into Stage 2 (PD) and beyond
implementation of the Concept Paper on Preventive Diplomacy establishment of an Intersessional Support Group on Preventive Diplomacy

Conflict Resolution
Strengthening Dispute Settlement Mechanism Developing regional cooperation for maintenance of peace and security Developing supporting initiatives Thai-Cambodia Border Conflict 2010?

Post-Conflict Peace-Building
Strengthening ASEAN humanitarian assistance Developing cooperation in post-conflict reconstruction and rehabilitation in affected areas Establishing a mechanism to mobilise necessary resources for post-conflict peace building

ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)

ARF Membership N = 27
Brunei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Australia Canada China European Union Japan South Korea New Zealand PNG Russia United States Laos Myanmar Cambodia Mongolia North Korea India Pakistan East Timor Bangladesh Sri Lanka

st 1

ARF Chairman's Statement

to foster constructive dialogue and consultation on political and security issues of common interest and concern; and to make significant contributions to efforts towards confidence-building and preventive diplomacy in the AsiaPacific region.

Decision-Making
Decisions of the ARF shall be made through consensus after careful and extensive consultations among all participants.
no voting

Move at a pace comfortable to all ARF members Chairman of ARF is Chairman of the ASEAN Standing Committee Chairmans Statement after annual meeting
Non-binding

2nd ARF Chairmans Statement


The approach shall be evolutionary, taking place in three broad stages, namely
the promotion of confidence building, development of preventive diplomacy and elaboration of approaches to conflicts.

The ARF process is now at Stage I, and shall continue to discuss means of implementing confidence building. Stage II, particularly where the subject matter overlap, can proceed in tandem with Stage I.

ARF Security Dialogue Forum

ARF Definition of Preventive Diplomacy


To help prevent disputes and conflicts from arising between States that could potentially pose a threat to regional peace and stability; To help prevent such disputes and conflicts from escalating into armed confrontation; and To help minimize the impact of such disputes and conflicts on the region.

Overlap between CBMs and PD


Enhanced role of the ARF Chair ARF Registers of Experts/Eminent Persons, Annual Security Outlook and Voluntary background briefing on regional security issues

Principles of Preventive Diplomacy


1. Requires diplomacy 2. Non-coercive 3. Timely 4. Requires trust and confidence 5. Consultation and consensus 6. Voluntary 7. Conflicts between and among states 8. International law, UN Charter, Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation

ARF Work Program


Inter-Sessional Support Group (ISG)/ Inter-Sessional Meeting (ISM)
Mandates renewed annually Co-chaired by ASEAN & Non-ASEAN

1995-97 ISM on Search and Rescue 1995-97 ISM on Peacekeeping 1995-99 ISM on Disaster Relief
resumed 2004 continuing

ARF Work Program


1995- ISG on Confidence Building Measures and Preventive Diplomacy 2002- ISM on Counter- Terrorism & Transnational Crime 2009-ISM on Maritime Security 2009- ISM on Non-Proliferation and Disarmament

Phase 2 Preventive Diplomacy


15th ARF (2008) endorses ARF Review Paper Senior Officials directed to draw up Preventative Diplomacy Work Plan
priority to non-traditional security challenges Explicit PD measures to promote peaceful cooperation and prevent disputes and tensions from escalating into armed conflict

Phase 2 is to accompany the development of the ASEAN Political-Security Community

Preventive Diplomacy Tool Kit


Good offices, fact finding, mediation Enhanced role of the ARF Chair Troika past, present and future ARF Chairs Friends of the Chair ARF Experts and Eminent Persons ASEAN Secretariat to assist - ARF Unit

ARF Achievements
Venue for multilateral dialogue and consultations Habits of dialogue and consultations on political and security issues Willingness of ARF participants to discuss a wide range of security issues multilaterally

ARF Achievements
Agreed principles for dialogue and cooperation
consensus, non-interference, pace comfortable to all peaceful settlement of differences

Continuing CBMs as foundation Enhancing linkages between Track 1 and Track 2 in the ARF processes

ARF Achievements
Greater participation by defense and military officials
ARF ISMs and ISGs

Networking developed among nationalsecurity, defense and military officials Transparency through exchange of information on defense policy and publication of white papers

ARF Achievements
Priority cooperation in fight against international terrorism and transnational crime Support for non-proliferation, arms control, disarmament efforts tentative steps preventive diplomacy But role in conflict resolution undeveloped
North Korea nuclear issues

ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus


China
Russia USA

Australia

New Zealand

South Korea India

Japan

Six Expert Working Groups


Maritime Security Peace Keeping Military Medicine HA/DR Counter Terrorism Mine Clearance

ASEAN-Centric Security Cooperation

ARF
Inter-Sessional Meetings (ISM)

ASEAN +
ADMM Plus

Inter-Sessional Support Group (ISG)

Enlarged AMF

Overlapping Patterns of Security Cooperation


Sub-regional middle power multilateralism FPDA US PACOM Theatre Engagement Pivot/rebalancing

Middle powers operating as equals


Exclusive East Asian Regionalism
ASEAN Plus Three (China, Japan, South Korea)

Hierarchical

under U.S. Leadership

ASEANcentric multilateralism

ARF ADMM-Plus Enlarged AMF EAS

Conclusion
No single regional security institution effectively covers the Asia-Pacific Region Multiple overlapping architectures deal with hard and soft security challenges The ASEAN Way embedded in ARF, ADMM+, Enlarged AMF, and EAS Preventive diplomacy at nascent stage No enforcement structures

The ASEAN Regional Forum and Other ASEAN-Centric Regional Institutions and the Asia-Pacific
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer CPG Asia Pacific Security Conference Sukosol Hotel, Bangkok December 3-4, 2013