The FUTURE OF PAKISTAN STUDY: Exploring current images of Pakistan's futures is the task for this essay.

Based on a

literature review of Pakistani magazines, newspapers and journals as well as conversations with Pakistani scholars and interviews with mem ers of the general pu lic, we develop and evaluate five images or scenarios of the future. !his essay concludes with suggestions for designing alternative futures for Pakistan. Before we articulate these images of the future, let us first examine the "futures approach" to the study of social reality. # futures view focuses primarily on temporality. $here are we going% $hat are the possi ilities ahead% $hat strategies can we use to realize our goals% &ow can the image of the future help us etter understand and change today% $ho are the losers and winners in any particular articulation of time% !he futures perspective is initially similar to traditional political analysis in that it egins with an exploration of economic, y actors that make these events international and social events and the choices made

possi le. &owever, the futures view also attempts to place events and choices within an historical dimension' that is, the larger and deeper structures that make these discrete events intelligi le, such as core(periphery, ur an(rural, gender, caste, and macro patterns of social change. #lso important in the futures view is the post(structural dimension' the larger meaning system or the epistemological ground plan of the real as em edded in language that constitutes events and structures. )nfortunately, most efforts to understand the future remain in the predictive mode. *t is often asked, what and when will a particular event occur and how can we profit or increase our power from a specific prediction% Economists and strategic analysts claim to excellat this task. +ur efforts here((sensitive to the richness of reality and the need to decolonize the study of the future from narrow models of reality((is to explore images or scenarios of the future. +ur task is not to predict and there y make this essay political fodder for technocrats ut to use the future to create real possi ilities for change. $e thus do not intend to give a familiar reading of Pakistan's future, as might e availa le in a five year plan, rather we enter into a discussion of alternative futures, of the many choices ahead as contoured y the structure of history and the modern oundaries of knowledge that frame our identity. *n the images or scenarios that follow it should e remem ered that theseimages #s an initial caveat, an are meant as tools for discussion and dialog' they are intended to clarify the futures ahead not to reify social reality. +ur goal is insight not prediction. important failing of this essay is that the textual sources and conversations were entirely in english((one might get different images with local Pakistani languages. 1. Disciplined Capitalistic Societ !he first image of Pakistan's future has many anchors, the mostversion recent uses ,. -orea as a compelling image of the future. Both countries were underdeveloped thirty years ago ut now ,. -orea has joined the ranks of the developed, it is ecome an integral

part of the "Pacific ,hift." !hrough state managed industrialization with strong private spin( offs .and the economic activity caused y the /ietnam war0 -orea has dramatically raised its standard of living. #long with a strong confucianethic .respect for hierarchy, family, hard work, and an emphasis on education0 -orea was a strong national ethic. &owever, given Pakistan's social structure perhaps 1orth -orea is a etter example of Pakistan'spossi le future as oth have strong militaries. &owever, while 1orth -orea has a strong totalitarian ideology, Pakistan does not. *slam is in many ways a legal2social doctrine and in that sense that it defies any particular authoritativeinterpretation rather it is up for gra s y a variety of ideologies. $hile a theocratic military state is possi le so far this mixture has not occurred nor has a one(man state managed to succeed. !he est way of stating this model of the future is the "disciplined capitalistic society." !he military rules directly or indirectly ut so is la or. under the guise of "law and order." 1ot only is civil society disciplined

3a or exists to aid capital in its national and transnationalaccumulation. !he *slam that is used is one thataids in societal discipline at the individual and social level. !he head of the nation is then the strict father who knows what is est for the children. !he mother is in this image is apolitical, remaining at home to take care of the nation's children so they can work for the larger good of capitalist development. &owever there is an important contradiction here. #mong the reasons of the rise of East #sia was women la or. 4emales are thus essential for for export oriented strategies that lead to capital accumulation' at the same time the *slamic dimension of this model demands their continued "home(ization." !hey are to provide care to la or. !his is the semi(proletarian existence which in the long run cheapens the cost of la or for capital since the informal sector helps support the formal "monied" capitalistic sector. integral to this semi(proleterian structure. !he other o vious contradiction is the role of the military. developed Besides the role of women, confucianism, the historical particular juncture in the worldeconomy, East #sia ecause of low military expenditures and high social expenditures. *s Pakistan efore military expansion, that is, to redefine security% ready to put health and education 4emales are

$e have yet to see. *n the meantime, the hope is that through discipline and privatization Pakistan can join the ranks of the rich. !. Isla"ic Socialis" !his image is partially influenced y interpretations of *slam that give weight to the syncretic personal dimension of *slam' that is, an *slam that does not the facilitator of the mullah's rise((not rote discipline ecomethe ut revelation. !he rendering of *slam is y the third world movement which

populistas for example in the view that the land is perceived as elonging to the tillers not the landlords. !his image is also partially influenced has attempted to follow an alternative development path not ased on multinational $est run capitalism or on soviet party2military run communism. !his view was madefamous y 5.#.Bhutto in Pakistan. But let us e clear6 this view is still industrial and growth oriented like the previous model, however, it has a strong emphasis on "roti, capra, makan," on asic

needs and distri utive justice. 1ehru attempted a similar model impact of local and transationalcapital on individuals.

ut without the *slamic

overtones as have numerous other third world leaders. *n this model, the state softens the #t the macro level, import su stitution and nationalization ecome key strategies. &owever, the larger pro lem of the world economic system as essentially capitalistic and politics nation(state oriented with Pakistan near the ottom of the glo al division of la or remains. !he meaning of this image, however, does not come only from the economic as central is the religious. *t is *slam that unites, it is *slam that gives direction, itis *slam that integrates individual, family and nation. #nd although *slam is pervasive, it remains open and committed to distri utive justice and individual spiritual growth((a soft *slam, if you will. 1ational allies in this image come from other third world countries with collective self( reliance the long run goal((south2south cooperation on economic, cultural and political levels. #mong other writers, ,yed # idi'swrites that these two images take turns dominating Pakistan's politics. such as #yesha 7alal, argue that # third image, Exaggeration of one leads to individual and social oth are unsuccessful ecause of the nature of the frustration and then the rise of the other and visaversa. &owever, revisionist historians, Pakistani state, molded along authoriatarianlines due to the circumstances of partition. ased on individual and national identity attempts to transcend the earlier two, using the past as its gateway into the future. #. The Ret$%n o& the Ideal and the Sea%ch &o% Identit !he original image of Pakistan was that of a safe heaven and haven for muslims6 safe from oth the hindus of the east and lateron from the jewsof the west .in *sraeli and #merican forms0. muslimswould not *t was derived((at least in its popular e oppressed y the hindusof *ndia. myth((as the territory wherein $hile 7innah's intent may have e divided0 for the 8uslim

een political power .a share in the action when *ndiawas to muslims.

3eague and later the creation of a secular state, it 9uickly ecame a state for muslims of Pakistan's self image was to a large degree defined y *ndia. *ndia has een the *n this view, *ndia has manygods, is ent on destroying enemy that gives unity. Even after three devastatingwars, military strategists still elieve that Pakistan can defeat *ndia. Pakistan .the empirical evidence of the Bangladesh war0, has nuclear weapons and is allied with godless :ussia. But would Pakistan retain any sense of its identity without *ndia since Pakistan knows itself through the other of *ndia% *ndeed, is Pakistan ut not(*ndia. *ndia has survived thousands of years with and without muslimdomination, ut Pakistan is still struggling to complete a half(century, to imagine itself as a nation, to find a coherent self. !his image exists in many ways outside our earlier dimensionsin that internal identity is more important than external reality. !he image is that we reside in the land of the Pure, the place where there is no threat from the outside, wherein the purity of *slam can flourish. +ther varia les such as the type ofpolitical(economy, culture and geo(politics are less important. !he moral dimension of *slam is central.

;uestions that arise from this view is6 has Pakistan achieved this levelof purity% ,ome muslimscholars argue that each *slamic nation attempts to recover the polity of the initial *slamic state, the ideal of the revolution had occurred, prophecy had original promise of the time of the Prophet((the een delivered, the rightly guided caliphs ruled,

and there was social justice and economic growth in #ra ia. !his ideal is then the image of the futurefor Pakistan' this is the time of partition when there was promise in the air, a great deal had een achieved through sacrifice, the British and the hindus had een thrown ack, and the ;uaidlived. !he image of the future then is a return to a time of hope anddreams' of victory over struggles and of purity, efore the politicians in the form of the military and the landlords cooptedthe future. *n this sense this image of the future is a search for an ideal past, a mythic past. But while this image may e glorious, revisionist historians point out that the irth of Pakistan was already steeped in power politics, in feudal domination6 there was never any purity to speak of, to egin with. *f this is true then perhaps what is needed is a %ei"a'inationof Pakistan. # searchfor a new vision, a new purpose that makes sense of the last forty years of frustration and creates real visions of the future not dreams ased on a past that is ut a lie. !his reimaginationtask could occur through a democratic process of collective future envisioning or it could come from the words or images of great artists or others marginal to the present esta lished power structure. (. The End o& So)e%ei'nt !his imagesis the most pervasive and has many variants and levels. !he first is con9uest y *ndia leading to a greater *ndia. !his is possi le through military con9uest or oreconomic through economic imperialism if the doors of trade are left wide open. !he second is more sophisticated and deals not with military imperialism ut with cultural domination. !he mainvillain is the $est, especially the :ecent But while we await this reimagination of the future, in the meantime the present disintegrates.

)nited ,tates. *rrespective of ), #*< and other ties to Pakistan, religion and their distant locations in the world economy make Pakistan and the ),# naturally antagonistic. desires of the ), to inspect Pakistan's nuclear development exacer ate this tension. But cultural domination comes in manyforms6 technology transfer from the green revolution to the microcomputer revolution((technology is not neutral ut has many cultural codes and messages em edded in its hardware .the actual physical technology0 and software .the rules that make it sensi le0. 4or example, certain technologiesmight promote individualism and the expense of family. +thers might promote mo ility. Education transfer alsoleads to cultural penetration, the widespread emigration to the ),# for education and then for work is the o vious example. Electronic technology even in the ostensi lyneutral form of =11 can ut spread foreign views of what is significant and what is unimportant' that Pakistan is rarely covered is not inconse9uential to cultural self(images. !ravel to the $est for tourism, conferences, and medical reasons is another example. $hile certainlythere is a

it of cultural transfer mostly it is ut one(way communication. ,overeignty then is clearly

violated' the idea that a nation can exist given this level of cultural penetration is highly pro lematic. 4or instance, just as there is a world division of la orthere is a world division of culture and news with some supplying modern culture others providing exotic or traditional culture. $e provide the data for their theories of the traditional. !he responses to this form of penetration are o vious6 fundamentalism in its strongest forms((a return to the historic text, a denial of physical and mental mo ility, and a criti9ue of all things foreign even those which increase the freedom and life chances of individual and family. !his is the famous call y the ruling elite for a local form of "democracy" in which asic "universal" freedoms are denied so as to save traditional local culture. 3i erals, thus, argue that the defense of cultural sovereignty of the nationis of injustices can could ut the denial of the sovereignty of the individual and the reaffirmation of the power of the ,tate. *n the name of tradition, all sorts e committed and rationalized. +ther responses to $estern penetration y *ran. !his could lead to a Pakistan( e further *slamicpenetration, for example,

*ran partnership with an increased ,hiainfluence in Pakistan. *t would increase the power of $le"a inthat they would have the power to define and narrate legitimate cultural and political activities. =onversely the end of sovereignty could ecome a positive image in that Pakistan could e forced to ecome an international lend of many cultures and technologies6 a place where the future resides, a place where sovereignty finds itself renewed at a higher planteryor spiritual or cultural levels not at a myopic national or local level. !his is then a reaffirmation of the idea of the $""ah ut extended to the entire world in the form of a glo al community. Pakistan could then ecome a compelling image for other places to emulate. # receiver and sender of social technology and a creator of postmodern culture. But this direction would take a great deal of daring and courage as there are no models to follow only vague possi ilities to explore. #s pro lematic as cultural sovereignty is the loss of the sovereignty of the self. !he self was previously constructed around familiar lines6 heaven was a ove, hell But with the world continuously eing recreated elow,and >od all around. +ne knew what one was to do with one's life6 class and caste were clear. y the science and technology revolution and with the pro lem of $est continuously staring at the Pakistani "self," there no longer exists any clear cut self. #m * ,indhi first% # woman first% # Pakistani first% # wife first% # muslimfirst% # feudal first% $here do my loyalties lie% =an * integrate these often ut ecome increasingly contradictory fragments of identity% #nd where do these categories stand in the larger scheme of things% 8oreover, the pro lem of the self can pro lematic with the feminist movement, increased exposure to the outside world through travel and the development of an overseas Pakistani community. *nstead of one mutually agreed upon authoritative construction of self we may see many Pakistani selves all vying for individual and national dominance. !he next layer of sovereignty that is made pro lematic is internal territorial sovereignty, that is, the provinces increasingly wantingmore autonomy and in some cases secession. !he calls for an independent ,indhis the latest case in point. !he image of this

future is of all the provinces going their separate ways with Pakistan finally only country. *n addition, Baluchistan might join *ran,

eing

Punja . !he north(west might join with #fghanistan or the Phaktoons might form theirown ecome its own nation, or join a loose confederation with ,indh. #nd in this image, #zad -ashmir would either join Punja or unite withthe rest of -ashmir to form its own nation. $hile this might lead to con9uest y *ndia most likely the same forces that would lead to end of national integration in Pakistan would also lead to the disintegration of *ndia, from one *ndia to many *ndias. #lso possi le after a period of disintegration is reintegration into a united states of south asia with Punja as the most likely center of this loose regional federation. *. No Chan'e: the Contin$ation o& the +%and Disill$sion"ent !he last and we would argue most pervasive image of the present continued or "no change." futureis that of the !his is a general malaise, a grand disillusionment with

the idealof Pakistan, with the promises of the rulers, with the intentions of politicians. *n this view, the power structure((so o viously unjust((appears unchangea le to individuals and groups. >iven this malaise, there are then a range of strategies availa le. !he first is individual spiritualdevelopment, an escape from the social and material worlds. !he second is to flee the country to righter horizons outside6 "<u ai =halo" or the fa led

green card. !he poor and middle class go to the 8iddle East and the rich and the upper middle class leave for the )nited ,tates. $ithin the country the strategy is to finda jo and then use one's personal influence to help others find work thus allowing the family as a whole to move up the economic ladder. +f course this is more difficultin times of #nother tactic is contraction. <uring economic expansion, movement is easier.

politicization in the formof joining political parties for the purpose of social transformation. &owever, this strategy is often 9uickly a andoned interpretive power patronage. !his regression from politics as social transformation to politics as patronage has a devastating influence on the national psyche. *ndividuals areforced into corruption and dishonesty .within their definitions of these two terms0 and must live with their own moral failures in a land where morality is central to personal and social valuation. /iolence(( individual, institutional and state(( ecomes routine and accepta le. =ities disaggregate' the rich secure themselves and the rest either form separate communities or create their own armies. $hat emerges is cynicism and pessimism, a reakdown in the immune system of the political and social ody((a world ending with a whimper not a ang. 4or those in the position of leadership or responsi ility thecontradictions are even stronger and inasmuch as the local, national and international structures are too difficult to transform others are lamed6 the foreign elements, the ad local elements, or the aresdown on undisciplined youth, to name a few enemies. !he oppression of the present oncethe enormous weight of the $hat remains is politics as historical structures at hand are made o vious .the military, the landlords, and the of the $le"a, mentioned earlier0.

leader and follower alike' oth lose their humanity, oth lose hope in any collective image of the future. $orse, there is no savior ahead6 all models have failed' leaders have failed' religion has failed' capitalism has failed' socialism has failed' political parties have failed. Concl$sion: Desi'nin' the F$t$%e !he need for reimaginationof purpose, of identity, of vision from this dismal final vision is glaring. Part of revisioningis creating alternative structures. #mong the points of departure for these new structures should e the centrality of di&&e%ence. Pakistan has placed its strength on unity' a unity that has proved elusive. Perhaps we need to create institutions and models of change that use difference to create strength, that cele rate our uni9ueness among each other and in the world. 4rom an em racing of difference, a unity of self, family and a larger group identity then might e possi le. #s important as difference is decent%ali,ation, the creation of local practices to solve local pro lems, that is, endogenous development. 4inally, we should not forget de"oc%ac , not in the trivial ut strengthened statist politics(( ut in the more sense of voting((which has historically

important sense of individual empowerment and community participation in the creation of preferred futures as contextualized y the social designs of others. *n any case, desi'nin' the future at local and community and roader levels .through local and nternationalsocial movements, for example0 might e a more promising task than waiting for a politician or some other central authority to solve the pro lems ahead. *magination does not mean, however, a forgetting of the material world and the real interests((structural, institutional and individual((that impede attempts to transform the present. !he future must then e a sight that one moves toward as well as a site wherein the material and the creative meet. !he future((like politics, economics and culture((must e decolonized and reappropriated y each one of us. !oday. $hile the a ove represents an initial exploration of Pakistan's images of the future, dimensions within these images have yet to e explored6 the role of the environment, structural and direct violence, the role of children, images of health, the possi ilities of growth and distri ution, and the relative powers of various actors, such as nation(states, political parties and social movements. !o conclude, one might ask6 what is my image of the future for myself% for my family% for my community% for my nation% forthe planet% #nd what am * doing to realize my personal and social image of the future%