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What does the future of the European Union looks like?

Member States remain together, but the Union recalibrates around eurozone. Inside there will be more integration, but at the intergovernmental level. Others must respect the decisions of the great European powers.

Three scenarios regarding a major EU crisis:


The first is when major powers like Germany and France decide that euro is in their interest. If small states even decide to re-nationalize defense policy and foreign policy is not a major effect, because anyway they do not have much influence. But if Germany decides to re-nationalize foreign policy, when we talk about Europe quite different. The second scenario in which the crisis may have serious consequences is that we have a failed attempt to reform the eurozone. This failure could lead to completely unpredictable effects. If you look at how they have failed other European projects such as the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, we see that their disintegration occurred because I had camps vs. pro integration. pro-decay camps. The collapse occurred because of certain dynamics that decay has begun and that nobody was able to manage or prevent it. What seems unthinkable at a time is not necessarily impossible. Therefore fragmentation of Europe is a real danger. Usually such projects come on the periphery, but decays from the center - as the fate of the Soviet Union was decided by Russia, the EU now fate is in the hands of Germany. Third, even if the current eurozone crisis will be overcome and will not collapse, it is clear that Europe before the crisis of 2007-2008 Europe no longer exists. After the crisis, Europe can not remain in shape and size that we know today. Automatic result of successful consolidation of the eurozone will be a multi-speed Europe. We'll see, of course, an accelerated integration with iron-based rules "Protestant discipline", but given the eurozone frame. As for the remaining countries apart, and they will have to readjust the new context. And this home is a problem, because, although formally states outside the eurozone are not technical, however, is informal, because banks in these countries from the eurozone. Are "outside" because it is outside the decision-making process, but also "inside", because they are attached cord eurozone. The effect will be a deep institutional rearrangement of the Union. It will change the weight and role of the European Commission. Instead of the old dream of federalism, a twospeed Europe means more integration in the eurozone, but at intergovernmental level. Those who will find the buttons will be great powers such as Germany and France. Commission levers to influence the predominant actors will decrease, assuming the marginal role to provide a link between the eurozone and the remaining countries abroad. The European Parliament will come loose. The eurozone will not be led by the European Parliament.