Challenges for Global Governance in 2013

Michael Fullilove, Richard N. Haass, Robin Niblett, Jiemian Yang, & Igor Yurgens Council on Foreign Relations | Januar! "#$% From the Iran nuclear crisis to global economic &oes, the u'coming !ear &ill 'ose stead! challenges to international bodies sei(ed &ith maintaining 'eace and 'ros'erit!. )*'erts +rom +our leading thin, tan,s &eigh the issues. Michael Fullilove, o+ -ustralia.s /o&! Institute +or International 0olic!, sa!s China must assume 1the res'onsibilities incumbent on a global 'o&er1 but China.s vision o+ 1ste''ing u'1 &ill not be the same as that o+ the 2nited 3tates. In addition to the crisis in 3!ria and Iran.s 'rogression to&ard nuclear ca'abilities, CFR 0resident Richard N. Haass identi+ies trade, c!bersecurit!, and climate change as ma4or governance tests. For Chatham House.s Robin Niblett, the ongoing crisis in the euro(one, troubled transitions in the Middle )ast and North -+rica, and multilateral securit! concerns in )ast -sia 'resent three +ormidable challenges +or global governance in the u'coming !ear. 5he 3hanghai Institutes +or International 3tudies. Jiemian Yang sa!s governance 'riorities are strengthening e*isting institutions, +orging consensus bet&een state and non6state actors, and harnessing regional e++orts in areas li,e trade into common global action. 3imilarl!, IN37R.s Igor Yurgens identi+ies three issues8the continuing turmoil in the Middle )ast, environmental concerns, and the gro&ing &ealth ga'8that &ill have serious im'lications +or global governance. Michael Fullilove, Executive Director, Low !nstitute for !nternational "olic 5he &orld.s greatest global governance challenge is to establish shared res'onsibilit! +or the most intractable 'roblems o+ our 'ost6uni'olar &orld. Much o+ the &orld cha+ed against the 2nited 3tates. enormous relative 'o&er in the +irst decade a+ter the end o+ the Cold 9ar. Man! en4o!ed its grievous overreach in the +ollo&ing decade. :ut no&, more ca'itals need to assume the role o+ 1res'onsible sta,eholders1 that &as urged on :ei4ing b! Robert ;oellic, in "##<. China serves as the most 'ressing e*am'le o+ a countr! that must embrace its gro&ing 'o&er in the international arena. :ei4ing has been more active in its dealings &ith the international communit! in man! 'ositive &a!s. Yet, it has so +ar demurred +rom assuming the res'onsibilities incumbent on a global 'o&er, and nurturing the international s!stem it ho'es to hel' to lead. In the 2N 3ecurit! Council chamber and other +orums, China is increasingl! &illing to ta,e the lead and behave more li,e a great 'o&er. 7n the other hand, it remains disengaged +rom issues that do not tres'ass directl! on its core interests. It is largel! 'reoccu'ied &ith 'rotecting its interests and those o+ its allies rather than 'ro4ecting its in+luence, or doing much to strengthen the international s!stem.

5he Iran nuclear issue is onl! one e*am'le. :ei4ing.s interests on Iran are not, o+ course, identical to 9estern interests. Yet as a ,e! 'la!er in the international 'olitical and economic s!stem, it is giving insu++icient &eight to the great ris, 'osed b! an Iranian nuclear bomb. China has changed the &a! it does business, but it continues to de+ine its national interests narro&l! and 'ursue them &ith an uncom'romising resolve. China &ants res'ect, but not res'onsibilit!. It is reluctant to bind its o&n +reedom o+ movement and subsume it &ithin international institutions in the &a! the 2nited 3tates did a+ter the 3econd 9orld 9ar, even though 9ashington.s relative 'o&er &as +ar greater than :ei4ing.s is no&. -s China.s &ealth and 'o&er gro&, so &ill its interests e*'and. - middle6'o&er +oreign 'olic! is inade=uate +or a great 'o&er. I+ China is to hel' run the international s!stem, then it has a sta,e in strengthening it. I suggest res'ect+ull! that China and other rising 'o&ers need to stri,e a ne& balance bet&een their traditional economic and securit! concerns and the broader im'eratives the! must no& satis+!, including stable great6'o&er relations, non6'roli+eration, and develo'ing their international 'restige. 5he old 'rinci'le a''lies> &ith great 'o&er comes great res'onsibilit!. 7n the other hand, the 9est needs to be care+ul &hat it &ishes +or. 9estern countries &ant rising 'o&ers to be more res'onsible and active, but the! don.t necessaril! li,e it &hen such 'o&ers are more assertive. 2.3. o++icials o+ten sa! that China should 1ste' u',1 +or instance. :ut China.s vision o+ 1ste''ing u'1 &ill not be the same as the 2nited 3tates.. Ho& &ould the 9est +eel about rising 'o&ers &ading into the Middle )ast 'eace 'rocess, +or e*am'le, or 'artici'ating in 1coalitions o+ the &illing1 that intervened in other countries? In other &ords, the res'onsibilities66and the 'rerogatives66o+ sta,eholders are o'en to inter'retation. #ichar$ %& 'aass, "resi$ent, Council on Foreign #elations 5here are a number o+ issues &here the ga' bet&een e*isting global challenges and the arrangements meant to manage them remains considerable to sa! the least. 7n this score, "#$" &as revealing> 3!ria suggested that international su''ort +or the 'rinci'le o+ R"0 &as mostl! rhetorical, &hile Iran.s stead! 'rogress to&ard a viable nuclear &ea'ons 'rogram underscored the man! inade=uacies o+ the nuclear non6 'roli+eration regime. 5hese issues &ill continue to 'ose ma4or challenges in the ne& !ear. Here, though, are three additional tests +or "#$%> 5R-@) 5he @oha Round is all but dead. 5his is troubling ne&s both economicall! Atrade being a ma4or engine o+ gro&th and 4ob creationB and strategicall! Atrade being a ma4or deterrent to rec,less 'olitical6militar! behavior that &ould threaten the bene+its that accrue +rom economic tiesB. 0lus, certain issues li,e government subsidies should be tac,led at the global as o''osed to regional or bilateral level. 9hat is needed then are consultations among select develo'ed and develo'ing states ali,e that could set the stage +or global negotiations regarding services, agriculture, and subsidies, in addition to the more traditional trade agenda.

CY:)R 5his is, in some &a!s, the ne&est international +rontier. Civen the s'eed o+ technological change, it comes as little sur'rise that there is little in the &a! o+ governance. Indeed, this realm is reminiscent o+ the earl! !ears o+ the nuclear era be+ore arms control 'olicies introduced some rules o+ the road and limits. :ut there is also the danger that some +orms o+ regulation could be &orse than none. 3o the international challenge &ill be ho& best to maintain a +ree +lo& o+ in+ormation &hile limiting various +orms o+ 1c!ber6aggression1 &ithout giving national governments license to curb the +lo& o+ in+ormation +or 'olitical 'ur'oses. C/IM-5) It is becoming increasingl! clear that e++orts at mitigation are not 4ust +alling short but that the ga' bet&een &hat is needed and &hat is li,el! to ha''en is &idening. 0ros'ects +or a grand bargain here loo, as remote as the! do in the trade and c!ber realms. 5his argues +or develo'ing a multi6'ronged a''roach to deal &ith the 'roblem Ai.e., slo&ing de+orestation, increasing reliance on nuclear 'o&er, sharing technolog! to 'romote cleaner coal, introducing a carbon ta*, etc.B, as &ell as increased international e++orts to hel' vulnerable countries deal &ith the e++ects o+ climate change66that is, ada'tation. #obin %iblett, Director, Chatha( 'ouse @ecision6ma,ers around the &orld &ill +ace a com'le* international environment in "#$%. 5he +ollo&ing &ill be among the to' global governance challenges> -D7I@INC - /735 @)C-@) IN )2R70) )uro'e.s leaders too, im'ortant decisions in "#$" to create a ban,ing union and +inancial bac, sto's +or de+icit counties. 9hile a euro colla'se is even less li,el! in "#$% than it &as in "#$", )uro'ean leaders no& con+ront the dee'er challenge o+ closing the com'etitiveness ga' bet&een creditor and debtor countries. -lthough structural re+orms are under &a!, reintegrating )2 +inancial mar,ets to 'rovide the necessar! 'ools o+ credit +or +uture gro&th remains a ma4or concern. Res'onding to this challenge is vital to global governance +or the sim'le reason that international stabilit! toda! de'ends u'on the 'ro'er +unctioning o+ a multi'olar global econom!. )uro'e, China, and the 2nited 3tates have emerged as the three critical hubs o+ economic gro&th. I+ )uro'ean leaders +ail to im'lement structural re+orm and dri+t into a lost economic decade, then the 'ressure on Chinese and 2.3. leaders to succeed in their o&n economic and +iscal re+orms &ill increase commensuratel!. 5R72:/)@ 5R-N3I5I7N3 IN 5H) MI@@/) )-35 -N@ N7R5H -FRIC- AM)N-B 5he se=uencing bet&een 'olitical and economic re+orm &ill do much to determine &hether the u'risings across the M)N- region &ill develo' along 'ositive or negative tra4ectories in "#$%. )g!'t.s 0resident Morsi has gambled that b! +orcing through ra'id constitutional re+orm so that his Islamist government can no& concentrate on delivering economic gro&th. In contrast, the secular6Islamist coalition government in 5unisia has decided to +ocus its e++orts on building consensus on broad 'olitical re+orm as the 'rere=uisite +or stable economic gro&th.

:oth a''roaches carr! signi+icant ris,s, and )uro'e, the 2nited 3tates, the IMF, and 9orld :an, &ill need to su''ort these 'recarious transitions more activel! during "#$% &ith +inancial assistance, mar,et o'ening incentives, and su''ort +or +oreign direct investment. M2/5I/-5)R-/ 3)C2RI5Y IN )-35 -3I/ast !ear ended &ith Ja'an and China in a di'lomatic stando++ over the 3en,a,uE@iao!u islands that is li,el! to 'ersist into "#$%. 5he Chinese leadershi' a''ears un&illing to countenance a return to the 1status =uo ante1 o+ Ja'anese sovereign control o+ the islands. -t the same time, the ne& Ja'anese 0rime Minister 3hin(o -be has cam'aigned on ta,ing a hard line to&ard China.s ne& demands. China.s a''roach to the islands re+lects a dee'er strategic decision to strengthen the lines o+ communication in and out o+ the Chinese coastline +or its ever6gro&ing energ! needs and robust maritime trade. 5hese develo'ments underscore the need +or an inclusive, multilateral securit! architecture in )ast -sia. Ho& to create such an architecture in a region that is in the midst o+ a +undamental rebalancing o+ economic and 'olitical 'o&er deserves to be at the heart o+ thin,ing about global governance in "#$%. )ie(ian *ang, "resi$ent, +hanghai !nstitutes for !nternational +tu$ies 3trengthening e*isting international institutions is essential to im'lementing true global governance. More o+ten than not, institutions li,e the 2N, 957, IMF and C6"# a''ear too slo& and ine++ectual to tac,le the &orld.s most 'ressing 'roblems. It is time that their guiding 'rinci'les &ere earnestl! im'lemented and e*isting +rame&or,s 'ro'erl! e*'loited. Rather than issue more declarations, the! must aim to 'roduce more concrete results, es'eciall! in the areas o+ 'romoting a global economic recover! and hel'ing to resolve the debt crises in the euro(one. In the coming !ears, the C6"# &ill have to sho& the &orld that it is ca'able o+ evolving into a more e++ective and accountable institution. Man! are also &atching to see i+ the 2N can assume role in dealing &ith the +lash6'oint issues around the &orld. - related challenge is that the international communit! lac,s the necessar! consensus to &or, out conce'ts, norms, and a''roaches in addressing m!riad issues ranging +rom nuclear securit! to the gro&ing in+luence o+ social media. For one thing, ma4or 'o&ers are o+ten reluctant to engage less 'rominent sta,eholders, ma,ing it di++icult to +orge common visions and 4oint e++orts. In addition, the much6 advocated 1net&or,ed governance1 among state actors and various non6state actors is ma,ing slo& 'rogress because most state bureaucracies, out o+ sel+ consideration and s!stemic inertia, still 're+er +ormal institutions centered on themselves. -s a conse=uence, ne& mindsets and +unctioning mechanisms that are ,e!s to global governance are hard to develo'. 5he third challenge involves harnessing regional e++orts into common action on the global level. @iscouraged b! the stalemate o+ global governance building, man! countries and regions are no& turning to regional and sub6regional integration, &hich e*'lains &h! &e are seeing more regional and sub6regional +ree6trade agreements. I+ such a trend cannot be reversed in a timel! +ashion, then there &ill be no global governance in its real sense.

@es'ite the un'recedented challenges +acing the global communit! in the second decade o+ the t&ent!6+irst centur!, the &orld should not be dis'irited. 5he u'coming !ear 'romises +resh 'olitical and economic momentum as ne& leaders settle in and 'eo'le around the &orld continue to see, more 'eace, develo'ment, and coo'eration. !gor *urgens, Chair(an, !nstitute of Conte(,orar Develo,(ent 5he international communit! must con+ront a com'le* set o+ securit!, ecological, and sociological challenges in the coming !ears. 9e are at a real crossroads, and must choose bet&een sustainabilit! and +urther decline &ith drastic conse=uences. 3)C2RI5Y RI3F3 5he continued deterioration in the Middle )ast challenges the 'rinci'les o+ global governance and their e++icac! in the near +uture. 5he region is &restling &ith a number o+ issues, including the autonomous actions o+ emerging 'o&ers, the rise o+ non6state actors, and the 'roli+eration o+ large6scale civil &ars. 5he tactical interests o+ ,e! 'la!ers 'reclude common ground +or decisions that are strategicall! vital +or all sides and ris, o'ening a 0andora.s :o* o+ nuclear 'roli+eration 'roblems &ith dramatic im'lications +or global securit!. 5he absence o+ ade=uate ca'abilities +or resolving these 'roblems threatens to unleash a 1domino e++ect.1 -lso, even &ith the 'rogress being made in other 'arts o+ the &orld, the inabilit! o+ the international communit! to co'e &ith this region.s challenges threaten to undermine global governance. 5he course o+ events is 'reci'itating. Ne*t !ear &ill most li,el! be a turning 'oint in the 3!rian crisis. 5he +urther strain around a li,elihood o+ con+lict &ith Iran along &ith gro&ing internal challenges in other regional countries &ill li,el! also heat u' the international agenda. )C7/7CIC-/ RI3F3 3cientists have identi+ied nine 'lanetar! boundaries that are essential +or human li+e and should not be crossed. 5he! estimate that &e have alread! 'ushed 'ast three, including climate change, nitrogen loadings, and the rate o+ biodiversit! loss. 5he other si*66ocean acidi+ication, stratos'heric o(one, aerosol loadings, +resh&ater use, land use changes, and chemical 'ollution66also a''ear to be a''roaching their ti''ing 'oints. 37CI7/7CIC-/ RI3F3 High measures o+ income ine=ualit! around the &orld are strongl! correlated &ith dangerous social trends in all societies. In turn, greater e=ualit! o+ income correlates &ith better social indicators across the range. 5hese observations are based on anal!sis o+ 2.3. and global develo'ments GNote> From research b! :ritish academics R. 9il,inson and F. 0ic,ett in 5he 3'irit /evel> 9h! More )=ual 3ocieties -lmost -l&a!s @o :etter, /ondon, -llen /ane, "##HI. 5he data has covered 'h!sical and mental health, educational 'er+ormance, child &ell6being, trust and communit! li+e and social mobilit!, teenage births, obesit!, drug abuse, violence and im'risonment. )ven the 'rivileged in countries &ith

income ine=ualit! su++er +rom higher societal 'roblems than their 'eers in more e=ual societies. 5hese ris,s must be dealt &ith head on in the ne& !ear. 5he! &ill continue to challenge global governance and its abilit! to 'rovide stabilit! in the &orld, but the nature o+ these ris,s also sho&s the limitations o+ national governments. 3ome o+ these issues should be discussed in the course o+ the 're'aration o+ the ne*t summit o+ C6"# in 3aint60etersburg in 3e'tember "#$%. htt'>EE&&&.c+r.orgEglobal6governanceEchallenges6global6governance6"#$%E'"H J"